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Forces in Mariupol Reject Russian Ultimatum to Surrender; President Zelenskyy is Interviewed about Ukraine's Needs; U.S. Official: Concern Grows Over Ukraine's Ammo Supply; China: Economy Grew 4.8 percent in First Quarter of 2022; Estonians Seek Out Russian Propaganda; Chinese Ships Near Contested Islands Fuel Concern in Japan; Pope Calls for Peace Amid 'Easter of War'. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired April 18, 2022 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

[00:00:22]

JOHN VAUSE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world, I'm John Vause, live in Lviv, Ukraine, on day 54 of Vladimir Putin's war of choice. What appears to be a defiant final stand by the last remaining Ukrainian troops in Mariupol, refusing a Russian ultimatum to surrender or die.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And I'm Michael Holmes at CNN's world headquarters in Atlanta.

Chinese ships, contested islands, and growing concern in Japan that China could be inspired by Russia's war on Ukraine, and launch a military attack on Taiwan.

VAUSE: Ukrainian forces in the besieged city of Mariupol appear to be making their final stand, rejecting Russia's demands to lay down their weapons and ammunition and surrender or die.

Russian forces have surrounded the strategic port city for more than a month. Ukrainian troops are now confined to small pockets of resistance. The city itself is in ruins after weeks of heavy fighting.

Many residents have fled, but still, an estimated 100,000 remain trapped without running water, heat, electricity. On Sunday, Ukraine's foreign minister said the situation in Mariupol could further derail already stalled negotiations with Russia.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DMYTRO KULEBA, UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: The situation in Mariupol is most dire, militarily, and heartbreaking. The city doesn't exist anymore. The remains of the Ukrainian army and a large group of civilians are basically encircled by the Russian forces. They continue their struggle. No high-level talks are taking place. After Bucha, it was -- it became particularly difficult to continue talking with the Russians. But as my president mentioned, Mariupol may be a red line.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: And Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the devastation in Mariupol could soon play out in Eastern Ukraine as Russian troops prepare for a major offensive in the Donbas region.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Russian troops are preparing for an offensive operation in the East of our country. It will begin in the near future. They want to literally finish off and destroy Donbas, destroy everything that once gave glory to this industrial region. Just as the Russian troops are destroying Mariupol, they want to wipe out other cities and communities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: And there is more evidence of the high cost in human toll in this war. Near Kyiv, they've recovered 41 bodies so far, while searching the rubble of destroyed apartment buildings.

Meantime, Russia intensifying its assault on Ukraine's second largest city. And warning: the next video is graphic.

Northeastern city of Kharkiv came under heavy shoveling on Sunday. The regional government say at least five people were killed, 20 were hurt in the attacks.

In the coming hours, Russian forces are expected to close all exit and entry points into and out of Mariupol. An adviser to the mayor says that will leave tens of thousands of civilians with no way to escape. Also warning that the men who remain will be, quote, "filtered out."

CNN cannot independently verify their claim. We have more details now from CNN's Matt Rivers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATT RIVERS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A Russian ultimatum to Mariupol's defenders: surrender by 1 p.m. Sunday. The Ukrainians did not listen.

"Our defenders continue to hold the defense," said an advisor to Mariupol's mayor in response.

DENYS SHMYHAL, UKRAINIAN PRIME MINISTER: Our city still has not fallen. There is still our military forces, our soldiers. So they will fight till then. And as for now, they still are in Mariupol.

RIVERS: A main pocket of resistance centered here, at the Azovstal steel plant. It's unclear how many fighters remain in the city, still difficult for CNN to gather verified information. A lack of Internet service makes reliably contacting people in the city extremely hard.

Still, what is coming out of the city shows that it is now almost completely occupied by Russian troops, keen to show off their handing out rations to starving civilians.

But the Ukrainian Parliament human rights commissioner says such handouts are mere propaganda, amounting to no more than a loaf of bread and a bottle of water per day. It is the Russian military, remember, that has caused such suffering, its weekslong bombardment of variable, cutting off its population from food, water, and medical supplies.

[00:05:06] President Zelenskyy says, "The situation in Mariupol remains as severe as possible. Just inhuman. This is what the Russian federation did. Deliberately did. And deliberately continues to destroy cities. Russia is deliberately trying to destroy everyone who is there in Mariupol."

An estimated 100,000 people remain in and around Mariupol and need to be evacuated, but they remain trapped. On Sunday, not one humanitarian corridor was open, meaning getting large numbers of people out remained impossible.

Russia's military goals are clear: Dominate Mariupol and move on.

SAMUEL RAMANI, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD: Mariupol had to fall before they can move those forces back up to the rest of Eastern Ukraine.

RIVERS (on camera): And those Russian forces getting ready to move does what?

RAMANI: If you free those forces, that means that they'll be able to more aggressively conquer Kharkiv, for example, which is where they're already launching shellings almost every single day. And also, they'll be able to move those forces towards Odessa.

RIVERS (voice-over): But for now, Mariupol still has not fallen. Destruction from previous battles litter the city's landscape. And as Ukraine's remaining forces declined to surrender on Sunday, Russia with a chilling response, its defense ministry saying, in part, quote, "in case of further resistance, all of them will be eliminated."

Matt Rivers, CNN, Lviv, Ukraine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VAUSE: And President Zelenskyy tells CNN that Ukraine is not willing to cede territory in the Eastern part of the country to end this war with Russia. He says Ukrainian forces are ready to fight the Russian military in the Donbas region, in a battle which is likely to influence the entire course of the war.

First, he sat down with CNN's Jake Tapper for an exclusive interview. They also talked about Washington's efforts to help and whether more support is needed from the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Do you want President Biden to come here?

ZELENSKYY: Yes.

TAPPER: Are there any plans for him to come?

ZELENSKYY: I think he will.

TAPPER: You think he will?

ZELENSKYY: I think he will. And I think he -- it's -- it's his decision, of course, and -- and about the safety situation, it depends, I mean. But I think -- I think he's the leader of the United States. And then that's why he should come here.

TAPPER: President Biden just agreed to another $800 million in military aid for Ukraine, bringing the total American contribution to 2.5 billion dollars. Are you satisfied with that? Do you need more?

ZELENSKYY (through translator): Of course, we need more, but I am happy that he is helping us now. I feel that right now, we are having a cleaner dialogue. It's been a dialogue that's had some twists and turns, and not just talk. It's been very, very difficult. Because there aren't that many countries that have really helped us.

The assistance from the United States, led by President Biden, and they are doing it again today, but there will never be enough. Enough is impossible. There is a full-scale war ongoing today. So we still need a lot more than what we have today.

Unfortunately, we do not have technical advantages over our enemy, just not on the same level there. But our people are stronger. That's our main advantage. And we know our mission, our objective, what we're fighting for. We're defending our country. All these families and the kids that we discussed before, we know what we stand for and from where we get our strength.

But for Biden's confirmed $800 million in support, what's most important is speed.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VAUSE: That sense of urgency is also being echoed in Washington, where U.S. officials have warned Ukraine could exhaust very quickly that $800 million package of weapons and ammunition once this new Russian offensive begins. CNN's Arlette Saenz has more now, reporting in from the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The first shipments of that new, more heavy-duty military assistance for Ukraine started arriving in the region over the weekend. But there is already concern that more equipment may be needed soon.

A U.S. official said there is growing concerns about the ammunition inventory of the Ukrainians as it's expected that heavy ground combat will be picking up in the coming days in Eastern Ukraine. Now, this new round of $800 million worth of security assistance

includes 18 Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds. But a source said that those could be expended and used in just a matter of days.

Now, the Pentagon has been working, trying to address how to arm the Ukrainians faster. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, as well as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Milley, have held daily calls with their counterparts in the region, urging them to ship more supplies and equipment into Ukraine.

[00:10:08]

Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told our colleague Jake Tapper that he's appreciative of this new military assistance but said that much more is needed and will be needed in the coming weeks.

Now, at the same time, Russia has been protesting the U.S. sending this type of equipment into Ukraine, sending a diplomatic note to the State Department warning of, quote, "unpredictable consequences" if they keep arming the Ukrainians.

But for the time being, the U.S. does not appear to be deterred in any way from providing these -- this type of weaponry to Ukraine. And they're adopting the kinds of weapons that they are sending, sending more sophisticated and heavy-duty equipment and weaponry into Ukraine. Even after some administration officials had earlier been hesitant to do so, worrying that it could pose a greater risk of escalation.

But it's clear that the U.S. is listening to the demands of the Ukrainians and trying to fulfill their needs as quickly as possible, acknowledging that more may be on the way, as well.

Arlette Saenz, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VAUSE: For more, CNN military analyst and retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton with us now from Virginia.

Colonel, thank you for being with us, as always. The Austrian chancellor met last week with Vladimir Putin, and he was speaking on Sunday. He had this assessment of what's sort of happening inside Vladimir Putin's brain. He was talking to NBC News. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KARL NEHAMMER, AUSTRIAN CHANCELLOR: I think he is now in his own war logic, you know. He thinks the war is necessary for security guarantees for the Russian Federation. He doesn't trust the international community. He blames the Ukrainians to -- for genocide -- genocide in the Donbas region. I think he believes he is winning the war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: That really is some kind of logic, but in a way, does it confirm reports for a weeks here that maybe the Russian president is making rational decisions based on wrong or misleading information, or is he just delusional?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, I think he -- you know, maybe a combination of both, John, actually. In essence, he is delusional in the sense that he is not getting the right kind of information, and his logical compass is basically off here.

But what he's -- what he's looking at, I think, is such a degree of facts -- series of facts, and these facts are very different from what's actually happening on the ground.

So he's being told what conforms to his worldview. His worldview makes it seem as if he is doing the right thing. And everything that he is doing in Ukraine is confirmed by the biases that he has inherited, his -- and the operations that he's conducting.

So it does seem somewhat logical what the Austrian chancellor was saying in that President Putin is looking at this as though he is on a mission, in essence, a divine mission, to conduct an operation, a military operation, that will safeguard Russia and protect it from enemies. And he sees the Ukrainians as -- as mortal enemies.

VAUSE: Yes, it's truly astounding. But right now, there seems to be a shift here in how this war is playing out. Explain what we're seeing right now across Ukraine in terms of the increased number of Russian strikes. They seem to be sort of much more in the long-range attacks, long-range missile attacks, air strikes, that kind of thing.

LEIGHTON: Yes. So the long-range missile attacks and the airstrikes are symptomatic of a force that doesn't want to get into close-in combat. And what you're looking at here when you see strikes in, really, all parts of the country, you're looking at a situation where the Russians are reaching out with their capabilities, their long- range capabilities, but they're not engaging as rapidly and as thoroughly as they did when they tried to go after Kyiv at the beginning of this operation, as they call it. Really, the invasion.

And as a result of that, you're seeing kind of a -- it's not surgical, but it is definitely a remote-controlled war that is happening here instead of the close-in combat that we expect them to engage in at some point in the not-too-distant future.

VAUSE: Well, on that, there is general agreement that the Russian offensive in the East is just a matter of time. Where there doesn't seem to be a lot of agreement is on the timing of that: when?

How do you see this? In terms of days, or do you see it in terms of weeks?

LEIGHTON: Well, it depends on how quickly the Russians can replenish the military forces that they had difficulty with around Kyiv. Those forces, there have been various reports that they've been moved East, so they're probably going through Belgorod, and, in some cases, and on their way down into the Donbas. And, possibly, towards Kharkiv.

[00:15:17]

As a result of that, what you're -- what you're looking at, I think, John, is the possibility that it could start within days, but they've been delayed on two -- in two areas. One is Kyiv, which I've mentioned. The other is Mariupol.

And the fact that the Ukrainians are putting up this, really tremendous effort against them in both places, I think, that has delayed their -- their efforts.

So the realistic assessment of this, I think, is that within anywhere from five days to about ten days, we will see a major operation being conducted by the Russians.

But it will take them somewhat longer to get everything together, logistically, and, in fact, get the new commander ready to go, as well. So, there are going to be those issues that will be, I think, critical to the -- to the Russians moving forward at this point.

VAUSE: You mentioned Mariupol. There are about 2,500 or so Ukrainian fighters left there. They're holed up, mostly, at a steel and iron plant. They've defied that Russian ultimatum.

And last week, there was a spokesperson for the Russian-backed separatists who control a part of the region, raising the possibility of using chemical weapons to clear the plant and avoid significant losses on the Russian side.

I mean, just putting all the morality to one side, is this sort of the type of scenario where you could see Russian -- the Russians using chemical weapons, deploying chemical weapons, simply because it's easier?

LEIGHTON: I think that's going to be part of it, because John, we have to remember that the Ukrainians have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians. And the Russians, as a result, have personnel shortages.

They had been, anyways, but now these personnel shortages are being exacerbated by the Ukrainian performance, military performance.

So it is definitely possible that the Russians would seek to use chemical weapons in a limited area, especially around this steel plant, the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

And if that happens, that of course, could open a whole Pandora's box of other possibilities in terms of how the West responds to it, how the Ukrainians respond to it, and what the Russians feel emboldened to do next.

VAUSE: Yes. We have heard from some members of NATO, from leaders of NATO countries who said that that is a red line that would prompt some kind of direct response. I guess we'll see what happens.

Colonel Cedric Leighton, as always, thank you, sir. It's a pleasure.

LEIGHTON: You bet, John. Thank you. VAUSE: Well, the city of Philadelphia, bringing back the mask mandate,

driven by rising cases. And guess what? Not everyone's happy. We'll have details ahead.

You're watching CNN. Back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:21:39]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. health officials are closely monitoring an uptick of new COVID-19 cases. The White House COVID response coordinator says it's being driven primarily by BA.2. That is the highly contagious subvariant of Omicron.

Just over half of all states -- there ones there in orange and red on the map -- have reported a rise in cases this past week.

But, overall, hospitalizations remain low, and cases are still a fraction of what they were at the height of the Omicron surge. Health officials say COVID vaccines are helping keep Americans safe.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. ASHISH JHA, WHITE HOUSE COVID-19 RESPONSE COORDINATOR: The good news is, our vaccines are holding up really well against BA.2, against all of the Omicron variants, especially if you've been boosted. So the key here is you've got to have the initial two shots, and then you've got to have a booster. That's what's really protecting people at this moment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: The city of Philadelphia is being sued over its plan to bring back its mask mandate. In court documents filed on Saturday, a group of business owners and residents claim the mandate is illegal. They say it goes against the state's constitution and guidelines established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Philadelphia would be the first major U.S. city to reinstate the mandate, assuming it takes effect as planned on Monday.

The city's public health commissioner says cases have jumped in recent weeks and believes masks will help limit transmission, while allowing people to go about their daily lives.

China says its economy grew 4.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, beating market expectations. But the country's economic outlook has worsened since March, as China struggles to contain its biggest COVID outbreak in two years.

CNN's Steven Jiang is following the story from Beijing. I know new numbers are -- are to come out, Steven. What is the latest there?

STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Michael, as you know, when you look at Chinese official figures, the numbers, you really need to take them with a grain of salt, especially during difficult, or sensitive times.

We are, of course, now in the middle of the most challenging and precarious time, both economically, but also politically, since the COVID pandemic began two years ago.

So that's why, even though the official or state media takeaway, or headline from the announcements earlier, is that the 4.8 percent GDP growth for the first quarter, you really have to dive a bit deeper.

Now, first of all, their GDP growth target for the entire year is five and a half, around five and a half percent. So this figure is shy of that.

And then, of course, the gross target for the year was set before the current wave of COVID infections and lockdowns in Shanghai.

So the direct impact of those increasingly draconian lockdown measures in China's biggest city and its financial and business hub is really not going to be reflected until later this year.

And already, we are seeing, as you mentioned, some downward trend, starting in March, especially in the service sector and consumer spending front, and those are important areas the government has been counting on to -- to drives its economic engine and to really transform its economy, from export and manufacturing dependent, to be driven by consumer spending and service sectors.

And that, of course, is not a good sign. Indeed, very ominous.

[00:25:09]

And then, of course, when you consider the Shanghai lockdown, which is really -- has no end in sight. Because just yesterday, the government again recorded over 20,000 new local cases in that city. That, of course, is in a country that continues to stick to a zero-COVID policy.

So, this is going to impact not just the national economy, but also the global trade, given the importance of Shanghai's port and airport. That's why a lot of the -- economy and political experts are really increasingly worried, despite the government here putting on a very brave face, publicly, saying that they are able to withstand this current wave of COVID infections.

But many people think the worst is really yet to come -- Michael.

HOLMES: All right. Ominous. Steven, thanks. Steven Jiang in Beijing for us.

Well, South Korea lifts most of its COVID-19 restrictions, starting today. Curfews for businesses, caps on private gatherings and rallies, and restrictions on religious activities have ended, after more than two years.

Indoor and outdoor mask wearing will remain mandatory, however. But officials say other restrictions will be lifted if cases continue to decrease and medical system capacities remain stable.

Still to come here on the program, many Estonians are using work- arounds to watch Russian state media channels, broadcasting Kremlin propaganda. How that's affecting their view of the war, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:30:23]

HOLMES: Welcome back, I'm Michael Holmes, coming to you live from Atlanta.

VAUSE: I'm John Vause, live in Lviv, Ukraine. Just gone 30 minutes past the hour.

We are following breaking news on Russia's war here. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, now warning a Russian offensive in the East could begin, quote, "in then near future."

To the South, in the besieged city, Mariupol, Ukrainian forces have rejected Russia's demands to surrender, despite Moscow's threat to eliminate resistance.

The unrelenting assault has leveled the port city, which has been surrounded by Russian troops since March 1. And now, according to an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Russian forces say the city will be closed for entry and exit on Monday. Those who wish to move about the city must be issued a pass.

The fight to contain Russian propaganda has been especially hard for countries on the border with Russia. Estonia, once part of the Soviet Union, home to a large Russian-speaking population, many of whom are going out of their way to ensure they still have access to Russian state media, despite the obvious and blatant misinformation.

CNN's Scott McLean has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Eastern Estonia, the vast birch forest and open plains, dotted with industry and concrete apartment blocks, can feel a lot like Russia.

Most people are ethnically Russian. Many signs are in Russian, and Russia itself is just across the river.

From the Estonian border town of Narva, more than 86 percent of the population speaks Russian.

(on camera): Even on this side of the river, native Russian speakers make up a substantial chunk of the Estonian population, one of the many lasting legacies of the Soviet era.

Many older people don't speak Estonian well, and in the absence of a whole lot of Russian-language media in Estonia, Russian state media has been left to fill the void, giving people a steady dose of Kremlin propaganda.

(voice-over): That is, until the start of the war in Ukraine, when Estonia blocked many Russian news outlets and TV channels, a decision that came with plenty of controversy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why I not agree? Because I think great democracies can't be afraid of any propaganda

Many people here is buying some systems to -- to pick up the Russian channels.

It's not the way. Restrict is not the way.

MCLEAN: Antennas are suddenly a popular item at electronics stores, for Russian speakers to easily pick up Russian TV channels.

Others watch online through VPN's.

Ilya Federov and his father Oleg have an even better set up in their home right across the river from Russia.

ILYA FEDEROV, NARVA RESIDENT: Basically, this is just a lineup of the channels people usually get in the Russian households, as well.

MCLEAN: They've got this TV hooked up to a Russian satellite dish, another to an antenna, both picking up all the Russian channels, though some they'd rather not watch.

I. FEDEROV: I can only watch 10, 15 seconds maximum, because the levels of aggression and paranoia, and lies, just blatant lies, it's crazy.

MCLEAN (on camera): A lot of people here are still very connected to Russia. Do you think that they believe everything that the Kremlin is saying about the war in Ukraine?

OLEG FEDEROV, NARVA RESIDENT (through translator): I don't just think, I know there are a lot of people who think Russian state media is the truth. But for sure, it's a lot of false news and lies; and only a minority in Narva don't believe Russian propaganda.

MCLEAN (voice-over): Some of those true believers are reluctantly tuning into this channel. ETV+ was launched in 2015 to give Russian- speaking Estonians access to reliable news about their own country and the world.

MARGARITA TANAJEVA, ETV+ ANCHOR: We don't have propaganda. We can make news about corrupt ministers or presidents in our country or politics. Many Russians journalists can't do it.

MCLEAN: On Friday, ETV+ reported on the sinking of Russia's flag ship, the Moskva, giving both Ukraine's claim that its missiles sunk the ship, and the more benign Russian version, that it sank after a fire.

Since the channel's launch, ETV+'s ratings have made gains. But gaining trust is much tougher. TANAJEVA: Many of our viewers are ready to blame us, are ready to

judge us, because they don't believe us. But we are ready to speak with them. We don't want to judge them.

I am ready to wait. I am ready to give those people a time to make them believe me.

Scott McLean, CNN, Narva, Estonia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[00:35:03]

HOLMES: Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer says Vladimir Putin seems to have a full grasp on what is unfolding on the ground in Ukraine but has his, quote, "own war logic." Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHUCK TODD, HOST, NBC ANCHOR: When you heard our CIA director talked publicly about the concerns that when Putin is cornered, he might do something like use a tactical nuclear weapon, the person you sat down with, do you think that's a person that might use a nuclear weapon?

NEHAMMER: It's a tough question. I think he knows that he has this weapon, and he knows the threat of this weapon. So, I don't know if he'll really use it. But he knows that he can threaten the world with this weapon.

TODD: Does -- does he believe he's winning the war or losing the war?

NEHAMMER: No, I think he believes he is winning the war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Mr. Nehammer met with the Russian president last week, the first European leader to do so since the war began. He said that, at the end of their meeting, Mr. Putin warned him in German, quote, "It is better the war ends earlier rather than later."

Joining me now is Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the former defense minister of the Ukraine. And it's good to see you, sir.

President Zelenskyy said this weekend, quote, "Russia is deliberately trying to destroy everyone who is there in Mariupol." What do you know about the situation, the latest there?

ANDRIY ZAGORODNYUK, FORMER UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER: Well, the situation is, of course, extremely tense. The city's sieged for over a month and a half. And there are fierce strikes there.

Ukrainian army still holds parts of Mariupol. And there's a lot of civilians which are still trapped in the city, without any means for resistance. So it's a real tragedy what is happening there.

HOLMES: You know, it really looks, given just the sheer weight of numbers, it looks like it -- it will fall sooner or later. You may disagree. What would it mean for all that city to go under Russian control, given its strategic position?

ZAGORODNYUK: Well, first of all, I wouldn't be certain, because if there is any chance for Ukrainian army to unblock it, we will.

And of course, if it falls, then we will regain it when we regain the rest of the country. But of course, for the city like that to get to Russian control would be just a -- just a continuation of the tragedy which we're seeing right now. Because we all know what Russians do when they get into any town or village.

HOLMES: Yes, we've been looking, as you've been speaking, looking at images from the city. It has just been decimated by -- by the Russians.

There has been a suggestion that Vladimir Putin will want to make some sort of -- I don't know -- significant announcement or move by May the 9th, which is Victory Day in Russia and a significant date for Mr. Putin.

Do you think he will try to make some sort of decisive move or declare some sort of victory?

ZAGORODNYUK: I would separate what actually is going to happen and what he is going to say on the 9th of May.

Because whatever happens, even if he fails completely, he will still be announcing some -- some kind of a victory, whatever that means.

The information space in Russia is completely isolated from the rest of the world, so he would just be making it up. But of course, he will try to do something to gain something, to be reporting from.

VAUSE: Are you satisfied with the level of western help in terms of weaponry? Heavier weaponry is being sent by the U.S. Is it enough, though, for the battle that is to come?

ZAGORODNYUK: No, it isn't enough. And, yes, we are grateful for all countries, particularly, of course, the United States, as -- as the largest supporter by numbers.

But currently what we're seeing is that, of course, the challenge is much greater.

But the key thing is that we can actually win. And we see that Russians are failing, and we see that their command and control are making horrible mistakes. And we see that we are fighting much more effectively and much more productive -- efficiently.

But -- but to -- to get to the tipping point, we need -- we need more equipment. And then we can actually turn into the counter offensive.

And we're absolutely certain, and -- and if we have enough equipment, and as we are asking our partners, then we will be able to -- to start gaining our territories back and actually start winning this war. They're already losing. They already cannot get most of their

operational objectives. Pretty much all of them they cannot achieve.

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: But it is clear --

ZAGORODNYUK: Yes.

HOLMES: Sorry, it is clear that Russia has -- you know, they've withdrawn and regrouped, and they're re-arming in the East. And the feeling is they're going to make a big push from the Donbas out.

Is Ukraine in a position, then, weaponry and manpower-wise, to take advantage of that regrouping that's going on and take the initiative while those -- with those new weapons while Russia or before Russia effectively regroups?

ZAGORODNYUK: Yes, we can. We have a very motivated force. We have a very experienced force, so we have no problem with -- with actually personnel. But we do need some additional equipment. And in the case that it comes, absolutely. Absolutely we can.

HOLMES: I'm curious: do you expect Russian military tactics to change in this next phase of the war?

ZAGORODNYUK: That is going to be more artillery war, more long distance, more firepower. So -- and actually, the previous stage was also -- it had a lot of artillery component and a lot of firepower and a long-range component, as well. It wasn't just individual equipments like Javelins, for example.

But in this stage, we expect it to be pretty much all of that in the long range. And that's why we are looking at the equipment like tanks, like artillery, like self-propelled artillery, multi-level rocket systems, and so on. So these are -- should be -- should be the prime component of the upcoming phase.

HOLMES: Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the former defense minister of Ukraine, really appreciate your time. Thanks so much.

It is a presence that is not going unnoticed. Coming up, the concerns over Chinese warships being spotted around contested islands near Japan and Taiwan.

You're watching CNN NEWSROOM. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:45:24]

HOLMES: There is growing concern in Japan about the increased appearance of Chinese ships around a chain of contested islands. Now, all of this amid, of course, heightened tensions between China and Taiwan and fears Beijing could be inspired by Russia's war on Ukraine to launch its own attack. As the political rhetoric heats up, Japanese fishermen are worried

about their way of life. Blake Essig reports.

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BLAKE ESSIG, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For the past 25 years, Kazushi Kinjo has made a living fishing the waters surrounding Japan's Nansei Islands.

That includes the uninhabited group of islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in China. When he started, Kinjo says he never saw Chinese ships. But, in the last few years --

KAZUSHI KINJO, FISHERMAN: You can see it in the video. The bow of one of their ships is pointed straight at us, and they were chasing us.

ESSIG: Dangerous encounters, specifically around the contested Senkaku Islands, that Kinjo says are guaranteed.

KINJO: I didn't know for sure, but I saw what looked like cannons. Looking back, they definitely could have shot at us if they wanted to. I felt that fear.

ESSIG: In response to CNN, China's ministry of foreign affairs says, it's carrying out law enforcement duties in its territory.

But it's not just the Chinese coast guard trolling these contested waters. Japanese and senior U.S. defense officials say Chinese warships are routinely patrolling Japanese territorial waters and the waters near Taiwan. And according to one of the men in charge of defending Japan, that increased activity isn't limited to the sea.

(on camera): We are walking on the shore of Japan's Yanaguni Islands. The East coast of Taiwan is only 110 kilometers away. It's so close that on a clear day, you can actually see it.

It's this stretch of water that's been viewed as a potential battleground, if China invades Taiwan.

(voice-over): It's that close proximity that has Japanese officials claiming Taiwan's peace and stability, is directly connected to Japan's. The security threat, amplified by the ongoing nuclear threat, posed by North Korea. And, a growing fear that China may try to take control of land of the Japanese government, claims, is inherently theirs.

GEN. YOSHIHIDE YOSHIDA, CHIEF OF STAFF, JAPANESE GROUND SELF-DEFENSE FORCE (through translator): Japan's territorial sovereignty extends to the Nansei Islands. And I'm afraid that it may be infringed in the future.

ESSIG: It's for those reasons that Yoshihide Yoshida says defending the Nansei Islands is a top priority. The Nansei Islands consist of these 198 islands.

Since 2016, in a clear departure from Japan's post-World War Two pacifism, Japan's self-defense force has increased its footprint, building bases on Amami Oshima, Miyako-jima and Yonaguni. Ishigaki is next.

(on camera): How confident are you in Japan's ability to defend itself?

YOSHIDA (through translator): We are enhancing our capabilities, but our competitors are also enhancing their capabilities, at an extremely fast pace. It will be very difficult to maintain our deterrence and response capabilities unless we further increase our military capacity.

ESSIG (voice-over): Back on Yonaguni, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is sparking fears that China could be emboldened to act off Japan's shores.

KINJO (through translator): The people are terrified of the situation that's happening, I think that this Senkaku issue and the Taiwan contingency are similar to the Ukrainian issue. I have a strong sense of crisis, that this island will eventually cease to be Japan.

ESSIG: But in the face of geopolitical concerns well out of his control, Kinjo and his crew do what they know. They prepare for another day at sea.

Blake Essig, CNN, Yonaguni, Japan.

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HOLMES: South Korea and the U.S. will conduct military exercises for the next nine days. Seoul's joint chief of staff announced the plan on Sunday.

The defense command post training used computer simulation without actual military forces training in person. The joint chief said the decision to go virtual was made based on conditions such as COVID-19 and maintenance of the combined defense posture.

Still to come here on the program, a plea for peace during an Easter of war. Pope Francis citing the violence in Ukraine as he delivers his Easter message. The details from Rome, coming up.

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HOLMES: It was a sad Easter for many people in South Africa. A church there -- you see it there; this is near Durban -- was left standing after heavy flooding washed away many houses in the township.

Survivors of the floods at least were able to come here to pray and seek solace after losing their homes and loved ones in recent storms.

A province official says the flooding has killed more than 400 people. More than 40,000 are homeless. Search dogs sniffing muddy debris to find some of the missing, as some residents tried to salvage what's left of their homes, or what remains.

Many people are without power and water. More rain expected in the week ahead.

At the Vatican, Pope Francis calling for peace during what he described as an "Easter of war." The pontiff praying for a new dawn of hope in Ukraine as he delivered his Easter blessing in front of tens of thousands of people gathered in St. Peter's Square.

CNN senior Vatican analyst, John Allen, with the details.

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JOHN ALLEN, CNN SENIOR VATICAN ANALYST: Easter Sunday, typically a joyous time for Catholics, had a shadow cast over it this year by the war of Ukraine.

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Pope Francis referred to the war as cruel and senseless, calling this an "Easter of war." He also expressed compassion for the victims of this conflict including refugees and internally displaced persons. And also children who have been orphaned by the conflict.

The pontiff acknowledged that Ukraine has been dragged into this war, but did not mention Russia by name. That in keeping with his policy from the beginning of trying to keep some channel of communication with the Russians open.

In addition, the pope named a number of other hotspots, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has flared up anew in recent days. Syria, Yemen, Myanmar, situations in Africa and Latin America.

But it was clear that Ukraine had a special pride of place.

By the way, this was the first time the pope has been able to celebrate Easter in front of a large crowd in St. Peter's Square since the COVID pandemic began.

For CNN, this is John Allen in Rome.

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HOLMES: Thanks for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes. You can follow me on Twitter and Instagram, @HolmesCNN. Do stick around. Our breaking news coverage continues after a quick break.

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