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Happening Now, Civilian Evacuations Out of Mariupol Underway; U.S Embassy in Ukraine Hopes to Return to Kyiv by End of May; Democrats Look to Salvage Senate Majority. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired May 02, 2022 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: They're barricaded in the basement. CNN has exclusive new satellite images showing what that plant looks like now after just days and weeks or Russian shelling. Nearly every building has been destroyed.

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Meantime, Ukraine says Russian forces are advancing in the Donetsk region. New video shows a village coming under heavy fire. You could see that there. In the Kharkiv region, Ukraine say at least three were killed, eight others injured by Russian shelling over the weekend.

Ukraine though is fighting back. Some new video also shows Ukrainian drone strike on two Russian boats, and this is happening near the infamous Snake Island, which we talked so much about at the start of the way.

SCIUTTO: Exactly. That's a Turkish drone there, right, that carried out that attack.

Let's begin this morning though with CNN International Security Editor Nick Paton Walsh. He's in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

So, Nick, first, to begin with Mariupol, some are coming out, it's been a long time coming, but it's going slowly. I mean, do we expect this corridor to remain open?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: Yes. Look, I mean, all that, frankly, is TBD. And at this stage, Jim, I should say, what you're seeing behind me here are not the long-awaited evacuees that are part of this United Nations Red Cross move coordinated on the level of the heads of state it seems to get those people out.

We understand on the move it seems are some of those who were in Azovstal steel plant, beneath it, I should say, desperately hunkering down in that enormous facility because it was the only remaining hard shelter after the lengthy bombardment of Mariupol.

This according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, take that as you will, over a hundred, over the past 48 hours, have emerged 11 of those, they claim, have chosen to stay in separatist territory but at least 69 today Russia says are on their way towards Zaporizhzhia.

I understand from two officials speaking too here that they may not necessarily arrive yet in daylight hours today. They have a number of hurdles still to cross between that area and where I'm standing here, the reception center in Zaporizhzhia.

But what you are seeing behind me here are the other people who have been traveling out of Mariupol over the last week or so. Complex, of course, because while today is about a kind of globally touted bid to try and get people out in large numbers, 100,000 civilians in Mariupol, and the hundreds who are in the Azovstal steel plant, over the past weeks and days, people have been coming out using their own resources.

And we've seen ourselves here a number of buses arriving, which contain people who have been on the move for a week or so, stopped by Russians at various checkpoints along the way and finally now finding themselves here where the United Nations greets them, the Red Cross greets them and they're given what necessary and next steps they need to accustomize to life here in a completely new world for them.

But today, that long-heralded large scale move, it could possibly go on for a matter of days, even weeks, as they have to bring out possibly 100,000 civilians who may want to leave inside. And, remember, this is a town now under Russian occupation, heavily bombarded, where there is a major threat of disease. That does appear to be a matter of house away.

But in terms of what we're waiting for here, people out of Azovstal, people part of a U.N.-backed convoy, they have yet to arrive in this area. Jim?

SCIUTTO: One thing we always remind folks, more than 5 million had fled the country but around 8 million displaced internally in the country having to leave their homes.

HILL: Yes. And it's such an important reminder too as they wait and wonder what's next, where else they can go.

Nick Paton Walsh, I appreciate it, thank you.

Meantime, in Mariupol, some Ukrainian soldiers protecting the Azovstal steel plant have been taken as prisoners of war by Russian forces. CNN's Matt Rivers spoke to the mother of one of them. And I do want to warn you, some of what you're about to see and hear may be disturbing.

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MATT RIVERS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Russian propaganda with a clear message to the last remaining defenders of Mariupol. The video says, we guarantee that we will save your lives and we will follow international laws to guarantee humane treatment. Such will be the case, says the voice over, with this man, a captured Ukrainian soldier Dan Zvonyk.

The 25-year-old member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Force was captured at the Azovstal steel complex, the last remaining pocket of resistance in the city. CNN has geolocated the building behind them to an area just northwest of the plant, a Russian soldier detailing how they will be treated. As you are captured, he says, we will treat you with honor and with understanding.

These videos were published on April 20th. Five days later, Dan Zvonyk was dead. This picture of his face hauntingly lifeless was sent to his mother by officials in Russian-held Donetsk, she told us.

[10:05:02]

We redialed the numbers and were hung up on once we identified as journalists.

To confirm who he was, they also sent a picture of his chest with a tattoo on the body clearly matching the one seen on Zvonyk while he was still alive in Russian propaganda videos.

When you first saw that message, what went through your mind?

ANNA ZVONYK, MOTHER OF DEAD UKRAINIAN POW: Nothing. I just screamed. There was nothing, no thoughts.

RIVERS: We met his mother near where she's staying in Kyiv. She fled Mariupol herself just two weeks ago alongside the rest of her family. Her sister-in-law also reeling from the photo of her nephew.

LUDMILA ZAGURSKA, AUNT OF DEAD UKRAINIAN POW: I still have that photograph in front of my eyes. It's constantly in front of my eyes.

RIVERS: The morgue in Donetsk confirmed to CNN that Zvonyk was dead and that his body was picked up on Sunday. CNN can't confirm how he died but we know he died after being taken into custody either by Russian or Russian-backed separatist forces.

Do you think that the Russians killed your son?

ZVONYK: Yes, I'm sure.

RIVERS: Russia's Ministry of Defense did not return a request for comment about how Zvonyk died.

For weeks, CNN has heard directly from soldiers inside the steel plant complex who have told us they will not surrender to the Russians for fear of being executed. Within their ranks, Zvonyk's death only hardened that sentiment.

Does what happened to him only reinforce the notion that the soldiers that are there are not going to surrender to the Russians?

GEORGE KUPARASHVILI, DEPUTY COMMANDER, AZOV REGIMENT: Matt, don't you think it confirms their fear and actually expectations what Russia did today? This is a war crime.

RIVERS: We asked Zvonyk's mother, Anna, if she is angry with the Russians? Her answer, honest and gutting. ZVONYK: For now, I only feel enormous pain, pain and emptiness. That's it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RIVERS (on camera): And we found out also that Zvonyk's father was fighting inside that steel plant as well. But the family hadn't heard from him since mid-March. So, we reached out to some of our contacts inside that steel plant complex who, in turn, found Zvonyk's father. They put him back in touch with his family.

He is still alive at this point, which is good news, but our contacts there also broke the news to him that his son has now been killed, just an unspeakable tragedy to happen to this family, and with his father still inside, no real idea what his fate will eventually be.

SCIUTTO: And then concern for other soldiers that may be captured there.

Matt Rivers in Kyiv, thanks so much.

Well, the U.S. embassy in Ukraine has now resumed diplomatic operations in the country, just announced plans to return to Kyiv by the end of this month if security conditions allow.

Joining me from Lviv is Kristina Kvien. She is the acting U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, first day back, in fact, in the country, since this invasion. Ambassador, thanks so much for taking the time this morning.

KRISTINA KVIEN, ACTING U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE: Very happy to be with you. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: First, I wonder, as a diplomat with many years experience in that country there, what is the importance of having U.S. diplomats back on the ground there in the midst of Russia's ongoing war?

KVIEN: Well, obviously, it's important symbolically that we're there to provide in-person support and discussions with Ukrainians, but it also just helps us do our job. We've been doing things through video conferencing and telephone and WhatsApp, and that's useful, but there's nothing like sitting across from interlocutors and talking to them directly.

Also, I think we can have more outreach more quickly so that we can provide information back to Washington about what we can do to additionally assist Ukraine.

SCIUTTO: Have Ukrainian officials, diplomats, your counterparts said to you, welcome back, we need you here?

KVIEN: Yes. They're very supportive of us coming back. They would like us to come back as quickly as possible. We too want to come become as quickly as possible. And so we are, of course, heeding the advice of our security professionals. But as soon as they give us the green light, we'll be back in Kyiv. SCIUTTO: And that's our understanding. You said earlier this morning that, hopefully, by the end of May.

I wonder, are any of your staff, any U.S. diplomats expressing reservations about that move given the ongoing security threat across the country, really, but including the Capitol?

KVIEN: Well, we have a very large embassy normally in Kyiv. And, obviously, we won't all be coming back at once. So, everyone that will be going back with the first group is very eager to go back. And, of course, if someone had reservations, we would not force anyone to go.

SCIUTTO: Understood, okay.

[10:10:00]

Russia is increasingly portraying this not just as a special military operation in Ukraine but as a conflict with the west, with NATO. And it's come as U.S. officials have also discussed the need to weaken Russia so it can't do the same to other countries as it's done to Ukraine.

What are the dangers of this conflict escalating beyond the borders of Ukraine?

KVIEN: Well, President Biden has made clear that if Russia takes one step over the line into a NATO country, that we will defend as we are obliged to do under the NATO treaty. So, we, meantime, are helping Ukraine to fight this war with Russia that Russia has caused out of its own choice and with no provocation.

SCIUTTO: A consistent request, demand, appeal really from President Zelenskyy and others is that, thank you for the aid you have sent so far, Washington, United States of America, but we need more and we need it quickly. And I wonder do you get those same appeals?

KVIEN: Sure. I talked to Ukrainians every day, as do officials back in Washington, and we do take our direction in terms of what we can provide from them. So, we listen to all their requests and we do our best to meet what we can.

Just to note that we are significantly increasing what we're providing right now. There have been -- we have given howitzers recently, which are quite powerful weapons. And over half what we have told Ukraine we would give them are already in the country. And President Biden now has asked for an additional $33 billion from Congress to help support Ukraine. So, not only will we continue to provide assistance but I would say that our assistance is increasing.

SCIUTTO: There is discussion of the possibility of a U.S. presidential visit, of President Biden coming and, in fact, Congressman Adam Schiff mentioned that possibility following his visit to Ukraine along with Speaker Pelosi. Is that -- is a presidential visit under consideration right now?

KVIEN: I don't have anything to announce on that at this time on that.

SCIUTTO: Understood.

War crimes, you heard the report just before we came on the air. Virtually, every day, there is increasing evidence of war crimes. We saw it in Bucha but we see it in other cities, treatment of civilians, direct targeting of civilians, treatment as well of Ukrainian prisoners of war. What is the U.S. embassy's role in terms of supporting the investigation?

I know that it's the U.S. position that Ukrainian officials and organizations take the lead on this but is the U.S. able to help to ensure that those responsible for war crimes are held responsible?

KVIEN: Right. Well, the United States has already assessed and President Biden has already assessed that war crimes have been and are being committed. And we're doing everything we can to support the various organizations that prosecute war crimes. So, we will contribute to the ICC, we will contribute to the U.N., the OSCE also has a process. But as you noted, we're also working with the Ukrainians, particularly the prosecutor general, who has taken a lead role in investigating the war crimes on the ground. Also the ombudsperson from the parliament in Ukraine is also looking at war crimes and we're working with her.

So, we'll continue to provide expertise and work with the Ukrainians who are right now on the ground collecting information on these war crimes.

SCIUTTO: Should Americans who are watching this be confident that military commanders, perhaps right up to the Russian president, that those responsible for these acts will be held responsible, will face consequences?

KVIEN: Well, that's certainly our intention is to help the Ukrainians do the sorts of investigations that would hold them responsible and also providing the expertise and then the outside support, whether through OSCE, through U.N. or other organizations to take on the whole breadth of those who committed war crimes, from the very top down to the generals who are making the calls on the ground.

SCIUTTO: And the top includes the Russian president perhaps?

KVIEN: If that's where the evidence leads, yes.

SCIUTTO: Ambassador, Acting Ambassador to Ukraine Kristina Kvien, welcome back to Ukraine and we hope that this foreshadows a more permanent presence there. Thanks for joining us this morning.

KVIEN: Thank you so much.

HILL: Still to come here, we're going to take a look at the economy. How much could it impact voter turnout in the midterms in November and is there anything President Biden can do about that.

Plus, today in Atlanta, the selection of a special grand jury, the special grand jury, of course, in the investigation of former President Trump's attempts to overturn election results in Georgia.

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SCIUTTO: And later, three survivors of the Tulsa race massacre of 1921, more than 100 years ago, could finally get their day in court.

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HILL: Inching toward the midterms here, Republicans believe they really just need to hang on at this point until November and then they believe they can take control of Congress in the midterms. As for Democrats, well, they are hoping to hold on to the Senate this November.

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SCIUTTO: All right. So, what does the data show? Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten joins us now.

So, Harry, of course, listen, a lot can change between now and the midterms, but some of these trends have been fairly consistent for some period of time. Where do they stand?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes. I mean, look, I think the House is basically a no shot for Democrats holding on at this point. Look, it can happen. Anything could happen. I could grow a giant beard but it's probably not going to happen.

The Senate, in my mind, is where the action is at this particular point. And if you basically look at the landscape, Democrats cannot afford it have a loss of any seats. And if you go back over the last century, what we know is that the White House party has had a net loss of seats 72 percent of the time. But that still means, essentially, that there's about one-third of time where the White House party can actually hold ground or gain ground. So, we'll have to see what happens on that.

HILL: So, in terms of seeing what happens specifically looking at Democrats in this environment and the Senate?

ENTEN: Yes. Look, I think one of the key things that we're going to essentially look for is Republican Senate recruitment, right? Candidates still matter. They still matter. And we know, going back in 2010-2012, Republicans had poor recruitment, bad candidates ran, and they had less -- they did less well than we might otherwise expect.

And we know this year in states of Arizona, in states like Georgia, in states like New Hampshire, Democrats are very happy with who Republicans are either going to field or who they're definitely not going to field, right? Doug Ducey didn't get into Arizona. In New Hampshire, Chris Sununu said, you know what, I'm going to set it out. And in Georgia, Herschel Walker is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee. Democrats are very happy about it.

Is it enough? Perhaps not, but it is part of the equation.

SCIUTTO: And then question about whether the Trump endorsement is positive or negative in some of those races.

Okay. The economy, economy, economy.

ENTEN: Yes, economy, economy, economy, right? Inflation, it's the worst that it's been in 40 years no matter what measure you exactly look at. We know it's the number one issue in voters' mind. You can't win if the economy is poor.

Inflation is supposed to get a little bit better but notice I say a little bit. It's not really supposed to improve that much. But if it improves more greatly than perhaps some of the forecasts -- forecasting the economy is awfully difficult. Forecasting the election is tough. Forecasting the economy is even tougher. If it gets significantly better, I think that helps Democrats out, for sure.

HILL: Joe Biden's polling, look, he was making fun of it over the weekend, right? It's been rough for some time, I think, it's safe to say. A lot of this goes back to when we talk about inflation and the economy. It goes back to how people feel, right, and how they feel about the guy in charge, whether he has all that much pull or not.

ENTEN: Right. I mean, look, at the end of the day, Joe Biden's approval rating is going to be the number one thing that matters, right? Right now, he's averaging just 41 percent in the polls. There's no real history of a president seeing the type of improvement that Democrats would like to see for Biden from now until the midterms.

But here is the thing I will point out, right? In this era of straight ticket voting, people more often than not are voting how they feel about the president. And if they approve of Biden, they're almost certainly going to vote Democratic.

It's not like the days it used to be. If you look back through history, oftentimes you might say, a president needs an approval of 60 percent or greater for his party to do well in the midterms. It might only be 50 percent. Now, 41 to 50 percent is difficult. 41 to 60 percent would be basically impossible.

So, look, we'll see what happens. There are possibilities for Democrats. But at this point, it looks pretty good for Republicans.

SCIUTTO: Wow. It's a similar range where Trump was in the economy in his presidency. They're kind of like around the 40 sort of barrier.

ENTEN: Yes.

SCIUTTO: Harry Enten, we'll save time for questions the next time you sit down.

ENTEN: They're doing very well.

HILL: They're going to leave it that next (INAUDIBLE) too.

Well, the economy, as we know, is the top of mind issue for pretty much every American these days, inflation, as we just discussed, rising interest and the uncertainty which comes with the war in Ukraine all helping to fuel concerns about a possible recession.

Joining me now is Catherine Rampell, Washington Post Opinion Columnist and CNN Economics and Political Commentator. Catherine, always great to see you.

So, you wrote in your most recent piece for the post that a recession isn't inevitable but the outlook is darkening. And, first, it's because of some poor decisions and then because of spate of really awful luck. That awful luck includes, quite honestly, what's happening in China, the war in Ukraine. What are the poor decisions though that you're referencing that got us here?

CATHERINE RAMPELL, CNN ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think in retrospect, first of all, the Fed waited way too long to start raising interest rates. I think even the Fed would acknowledge that, that about a year ago, they thought that inflation was going to be, to use the term, of our transitory and, of course, it's stuck with us for much longer. Because they have waited so long to start raising interest rates, it suggests that they'll have to be much more aggressive when they do raise rates throughout this year, which raises the risk of recession.

Beyond that, there is the fiscal policy. And the American Rescue Plan did a lot of very good things, in my view, but in retrospect, I think it was clearly too big and really juiced demand. And at exactly the same time that it was very difficult for supply chains to accommodate that demand.

[10:25:01]

Consumers were trying to buy appliances and cars and houses and everything else at exactly the time when it still remained really difficult to ramp up production.

Those things together are contributing to the inflationary pressures that we see today and then, again, on top of all of that, we've had this bad luck.

HILL: Which makes it really tough to have any sort of a soft landing.

RAMPELL: Yes. A soft landing, which is what the Fed calls the idea of getting inflation down just enough without tipping us into recession was always going to be really elusive. It's difficult to do most of the time that the Fed has tried to raise interest rates just enough to tamp down inflation, not enough to push us into a (INAUDIBLE). They have failed.

And that narrow path, as narrow as it was before, has gotten even more elusive. And so the risk of a recession has gone way up given those policy mistakes on top of all of these other problems that we've had with the COVID lockdowns in China and everything else.

HILL: I also want to get your take. There's a new report this morning from Fitch predicting that employment is actually going to return to pre-COVID levels by the end of August. That's a little bit of economic good news. There are some bright spots, right, when we look at the economic news but there's also all of this concern about the recession.

So, as we try to balance all of that, if we are headed for a recession, what kind of checks and balances are in place to keep this from looking like a 2008?

RAMPELL: I don't think we're headed for anything on par with the 2008 recession, the so-called great recession. Knock on wood, that's not where we're going. The job market does look very strong. If you look at the recent case of job growth, it's far exceeded what the forecasts were before the American Rescue Plan passed. Unemployment has come way down. It's closed to a half century level. It's not quite there but it's close.

So, the job market looks good. That's suggests if we do have a recession, and, again, not definite, hopefully, it would be mild, it would be brief. But there are so many unknowns unknowns at this point, particularly because we've gotten this once in a century pandemic plus, again, a number of spells of bad luck.

HILL: Catherine Rampell, always great to have you with us, and thanks for rolling with the construction noise there behind you as well. I appreciate it. Thank you.

RAMPELL: I'm sorry about that. I'm in here and still rolling.

HILL: There you go. Things are happening. It's a good thing. Look at it in a positive way. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: There's some news just in from the Supreme Court. Justices have issued an opinion dealing with the First Amendment rights of religious groups.

Jessica Schneider following this -- it stems from an event in Boston where a Christian group wanted to raise a flag outside city hall. How did the court find?

JESSICA SCHNEIDER, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: That's exactly right, Jim. And the court actually found unanimously here, saying that the city of Boston actually violated the free speech rights of this religious group when they denied their application to fly their particular flag on one of three flag poles outside city hall.

Now, Boston had argued that they have the right to deny this application because they said, if they approved it, it would amount to government endorsement of religion. The Supreme Court though saying that because the city of Boston has a practice of using one of its three flag poles to let outside groups fly their flags on any given day, in fact, over, they say, a 12-year period, all 284 groups that applied to raise their flag, it was granted except this one religious group.

So, in part, because of that, the justices here unanimously ruling that this flagpole, it wasn't government speech, it wasn't government- controlled property necessarily that would indicate the government's view, this was really a public forum and this flag should have been flied. So, this was a 9-0 unanimous decision. But, of course, Jim and Erica, we're entering this crucial period here now in the Supreme Court's term. We have eight weeks left probably and probably about once a week we'll be seeing opinions from the court. Today, they issued one. But we're awaiting very important opinions, especially on abortion rights that could radically change the way rights are in this country when it comes to abortion, also on the Second Amendment, also another religious liberty case out of Maine dealing with tuition assistance. So, a lot to come in the weeks ahead, guys.

SCIUTTO: That's the thing, because we do know there could be religious freedom issues but ones that tend towards the court's conservative majority. Interesting that this one was unanimous.

SCHNEIDER: This is a little more clear-cut, for sure.

SCIUTTO: Yes, for sure. Jessica Schneider, great to have you on. Thank you.

HILL: Just ahead, we're going to take a closer look at Russia's tactical plans in Ukraine. Is Russia looking for some big gains ahead of May 9th, of course, the day that Russia calls Victory Day? That's next.

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