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Spotlight on Georgia Voters; Five States Hold Primaries Today; Brooks Hopes to Win Alabama; Testing Trump's Influence over the GOP; Biden's Policy Toward Taiwan; Balbina Hwang is Interviewed about the Taiwan Policy. Aired 9-9:30a ET

Aired May 24, 2022 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Erica Hill.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Jim Sciutto.

Right now, election day. Voters in five states are headed to the polls. We are following several high-profile primary races in Georgia, Alabama, and beyond.

The peach state taking center stage once again, where former President Trump's lies about the 2020 election are playing a key role. Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp facing a major battle against former Georgia Senator David Perdue, who has touted Trump's endorsement, as well as his false 2020 fraud claims throughout his campaign there.

HILL: Last night, former Vice President Mike Pence pitting himself against his former boss and running mate, stumping for Brian Kemp at an election eve rally, prompting this response from Donald Trump. Quote, Mike Pence was set to lose a governor's race in 2016 before he was plucked up and his political career was salvaged. Now, desperate to chase his lost relevance, Pence is parachuting into races hoping someone is paying attention.

SCIUTTO: Listen, that's a remarkable public split and spat between a president, a former president, and a former vice president, who served together for four years. We should note that.

Our reporters, correspondents and analysts standing by to break down all the headlines.

Let's begin this morning with CNN national correspondent Kristen Holmes. She's in Atlanta.

Kristen, so it's a lot of races in Georgia that are key. The outcome is key. And you might call them bellwethers to some degree. So, break it down for all of us.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Jim and Erica. Well, that's exactly right. Now, the big one we're watching is,

obviously, the one you just mentioned. This is the gubernatorial Republican primary, which has become a proxy war. On one side you have the MAGA Trump election denying faction of the Republican Party. And on the other you have that Republican establishment, including former Vice President Mike Pence, we saw former Governor Chris Christie, a lot of people who we also will mention were attacked by former President Donald Trump.

And this is a bit of a reckoning day for Donald Trump for two reasons. One, he has made it incredibly clear how badly he wants to beat Kemp for not overturning the 2020 election. He poured over $2.5 million into this race, more than he has poured into any other midterm race this cycle.

The second is all that you just mentioned about the big lie, about 2020. This is going to show just how far that lie can go. Is it something that's going to play in a general election in 2022 or even in 2024? Remember, Perdue has made this a pillar of his campaign. And, right now, it doesn't look good for either Trump or Perdue on that front. He has been trailing Kemp in the polls.

Now, Jim and Erica, I want to point out one thing that happened on the campaign trail yesterday that didn't have to do with the big lie in 2020, and this was controversial remarks that were made by Perdue in his final pitch to voters. He went after Stacey Abrams, who is going to be the Democratic candidate for governor in the fall, and instead of Kemp, and he accused Abrams, a black woman, of demeaning her own race.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID PERDUE (R), CANDIDATE FOR GEORGIA GOVERNOR: Hey, she ain't from here. Let her go back where she came from if she doesn't like it here. The only thing she wants is to be president of the United States. She doesn't care about the people of Georgia. That's clear.

And when she told black farmers, you don't need to be on the farm and she told black workers in hospitality and all this, you don't need to be -- she is demeaning her own race when it comes to that. I am really over this. She should never be considered for -- material for a governor of any state, much less our state where she hates to live.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: So, two things I want to note here is that Stacey Abrams has lived in Georgia since she was in high school. So, saying she's not from here is inaccurate.

But also he appears to be referring to remarks that Abrams made in 2018 saying that people shouldn't have to work in hospitality or in agriculture to make a living in Georgia. Very controversial remarks on his final day campaigning in this primary.

Jim and Erica.

HILL: Yes, that's for sure.

Kristen Holmes, appreciate it. Thank you.

CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten also with us here with more now on the day's key primary election. So, Harry, I'm curious, what are you really focused on today?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes, so, beyond that top line race in Georgia, right, the secretary of state, Republican primary, it's another Donald Trump backing candidate. He's backing Jody Hice, who's challenging the incumbent Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Why? Because Raffensperger dared to certify Biden's 2020 Georgia win, which, of course, was a legitimate win.

Beyond that in the peach state, I'm also looking at the Georgia seventh Democratic congressional primary. This is an interesting race between two incumbents, Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux. They were meshed together, merged together in redistricting. They both had represented swing districts. But Joe Biden won the new district by 26 points. That is what redistricting you do when you control it like Republicans do in the state of Georgia.

[09:05:05]

Another congressional race that I'm watching is the Texas 28 Democratic congressional primary runoff. The initial primary was in March. Cuellar, Henry Cuellar, who is the incumbent there, led in that primary, 49 percent to 47 percent. But, of course, you need 50 percent plus one in the state of Texas, just like you do in Georgia, in order to avoid a runoff. Cuellar is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress. Cisneros has been challenging him from the left.

Also in the state of Texas, I'm interested in the attorney general primary runoff. Here we have the incumbent, Ken Paxton, who is being challenged by George P. Bush, who is the son of Jeb Bush. Kind of looks like Jeb Bush. Ken Paxton led 43 percent to 23 percent in the March primary. Here, Donald Trump is backing Paxton. So, again, a Bush kind of Trump proxy war.

And then finally, in the state of Arkansas, this is just a little fun race. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who was obviously the former press secretary to Donald Trump, she is being backed by him. And Sanders is the daughter of former Governor Mike Huckabee. So she would be another woman governor. There are currently three, if I believe, women GOP governors. She would, in fact, be the fourth if she wins the primary and then goes on to win the general election.

SCIUTTO: Lots of battles there to follow both on the Republican and Democratic side, frankly.

Harry Enten, thanks for breaking down the numbers.

ENTEN: My pleasure. SCIUTTO: In Alabama, three GOP candidates are vying for a Senate seat

vacated by the retiring Senator Richard Shelby, as incumbent Republican Governor Kay Ivey looks to secure another four years in office there.

HILL: CNN national correspondent Dianne Gallagher is in Huntsville, Alabama, this morning with more.

Dianne, good morning.

DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Erica, Jim.

Yes, and all eyes here in Alabama on that Republican primary for Senator Richard Shelby's seat. And also on Mo Brooks and whether or not his campaign, which was once left for dead, is legitimately back on the rise. Brooks made the joke himself that you call him a modern day Lazarus. And, of course, much of this going back to two months ago when former President Donald Trump rescinded his endorsement of the congressman, who, look, we should point out, was one of the most forceful drivers in Congress of the former president's -- his efforts to unseat that 2020 election, as well as he made that fiery speech before the people stormed the Capitol there at the Stop the Steal Rally on January 6th.

Now, look, his campaign numbers were essentially in the tank. Many believe that's actually why Trump ditched Mo Brooks instead of his reason given, which was that Brooks had become too woke by saying that we should stop looking at the 2020 election and instead Republicans should focus on future elections.

And that may be actually what gave his campaign this last-minute push because the other two main candidates here, former Shelby aide Katie Britt, she's in the lead in most polls, and former U.S. Army PILOT MIKE DURANT had millions of dollars spent on their behalf, essentially attacking each other over the past 60 days. And in just the past few weeks here, we have seen Mo Brooks' campaign sort of come to life and surge in the polls.

Now, the real question is, will it be enough? An Alabama voter must get at least -- excuse me, a candidate must get at least 50 percent of the vote in a primary to advance as the winner. That seems unlikely in this fractured race here. Brooks thinking he can advance to a runoff. That's something that Governor Kay Ivey is looking at as well, Jim and Erica. She is in a tight race here with eight different people trying to unseat her, that has been a race to the right, whether or not she can herself actually win outright tonight.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

HILL: We will be watching and watching for more from you with those updates as well.

Dianne, appreciate it. Thank you.

Joining to now to discuss, Andra Gillespie, an associate political science professor and director of the James Weldon Johnson Institute for the Study of Race and Difference at Emory University, and Doug Heye, Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee.

It's great to have both of you here with us this morning.

As we look at where we stand, there is so much focus, as we know, our lead story this morning, of course, on Georgia and what is happening in that state.

I'm curious, Andra, as you look at this, especially from your perspective, right, being so close to it all, is this a test of the former president's influence or is it a test of the limits of the election lie?

ANDRA GILLESPIE, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, EMORY UNIVERSITY: You know, it's a bit of both. And I think we need to be very cautious about how we interpret the results. Tonight's results are going to be one or a handful of data points in an entire election cycle of events and so we can't make inferences from just what happens in this one event.

Now, my working hypothesis for this election cycle is that Donald Trump's endorsement may not be as effective as he claims it to be. Endorsements matter because they convey information and for lesser known candidates it may be helpful, but that's subject to testing.

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What I expect to happen here is that it's actually not going to resonate all that well because Brian Kemp is a relatively popular incumbent amongst Republicans, and he's done the things that he has promised to do. And he had a base, he had resources, he had an infrastructure that Donald Trump's (INAUDIBLE) or disgust was not going to offset. And I think that that's a really important lesson for us to not necessarily believe all of Donald Trump's hype, but to look at the fundamentals of the race, because the fundamentals of politics and political science still hold true even in this cycle.

SCIUTTO: Doug, we want to get your thoughts too. Before we do, Andra, another dynamic here is the first test of what's known as SB-202, the voter law passed after the 2020 cycle that, among other things, added new voter identification requirements, limits the use of drop boxes, et cetera. That said, voting has actually increased in these primaries so far, early voting, 168 percent, as you can see there, 850,000 people plus cast a ballot early in person or by mail. It's up from both 2018 and 2020 notably.

I wonder, Andra, what does that tell you, based on this data so far, about how SB-202 has impacted voting?

GILLESPIE: Well, it doesn't tell me much yet. There are two possible explanations for why we see an increase in voter turnout, particularly amongst the early vote and the absentee vote. And one, it could be that we're in the middle of people adopting new habits with respect to voting. So, more people adopting early voting, they found it convenient in 2020, they're continuing to do so in '22. And so we're going to see this increase in people voting over, you know, a few week period as opposed to just on election day. That may be part of what's going on.

At least as far as the question of whether or not new rules are impacting folks, what we're going to be looking at, one is we'll pay a lot of attention to what's going to happen in November where the general electorate is actually going to be participating. We have high propensity voters participating in this primary election. And then there are other places where we might be looking at comparisons, both before and after SB-202 in order to get a sense of whether or not certain groups of people have more difficulties in being able to cast their ballot.

So, while we welcome everybody voting, there's so many ways that we can test the long-term impacts. And I think a better test is probably going to be what happens in November where you have more rank and file voters voting and not just the ones who are really interested in politics and pay attention.

HILL: Doug, looking forward to November, I know you've said and wrote recently for a piece on CNN Opinion that it's really time to stop using the former president and his endorsements as the bellwether of the Republican Party. So, I'm curious, what do you see -- what or who is the bellwether moving forward and moving into November?

DOUG HEYE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I don't think there's one particular bellwether. Obviously, this Georgia primary is an important one. It's getting a lot of attention, as it should. And Donald Trump does and will play a role in this race and other races. But if politics are about people, then campaigns are about candidates. And what we see is generally, and this is true pre-Trump, post-Trump and we'll see in the future, is that good candidates with good campaigns win, and bad candidates with bad campaigns lose.

It's why -- it's why we see Brian Kemp winning in Georgia over David Perdue, who didn't have much of a record as a senator, and obviously lost his re-election. In North Carolina, last week, Madison Cawthorn lost because Madison Cawthorn was the reason that voters voted against him, not as a proxy for or against Donald Trump.

And what we see in the endorsements that Trump has made is, his magic number is around 30, 33 percent of where the core Trump base is there for whomever Donald Trump endorses. After that it's up to the candidate and their campaigns to get those voters.

SCIUTTO: That's a notable point, Doug, because does that give you an indication for the fall about the extent of Trump's base? Because 30 some odd percent wins you primaries, right, doesn't win you generals.

HEYE: No, but, you know, the reality on the ground for campaigns is, is they know that this is going to be, Republicans know this, Democrats know this, this is going to be a big year for Republicans.

When I was at the Republican National Committee, our magic number for Barack Obama was 46. We felt that if he was at or below that, this is in 2010, we'd take back the House. And he was at 44, 45 in pretty much every poll that we saw leading up to election day. If Joe Biden is at 49 -- or 39 or 40 percent in the polls, it's going to be a disaster for Democrats.

SCIUTTO: Yes. Yes. And, by the way, Doug's not alone on that. A lot of Democrats feel the same way.

Andra Gillespie, Doug Heye, thanks so much to both of you.

HEYE: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: And please do stay with CNN as we cover these high stakes primaries. CNN's special coverage, "ELECTION NIGHT IN AMERICA," begins tonight 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time only on CNN.

Still to come this hour, President Biden is heading back to D.C. right now from his first presidential visit to Asia.

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His comment on the use of military force to defend Taiwan against China still reverberating across the region. We're going to be live in Tokyo coming up.

HILL: Plus, for the first time in nearly two decades, the Justice Department is changing its policy on use of force. Now saying officers must intervene if they see a fellow officer using excessive force. Why now? That's ahead.

And the United States working to release some rarely used vaccines from the national stockpile for monkeypox cases. The latest on efforts to combat the rare virus ahead.

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SCIUTTO: Right now, President Biden is on his way back to Washington after wrapping up his first trip to Asia as president.

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He wrapped it up this morning by meeting leaders from Japan, Australia and India, also known as the quad.

HILL: The president insisting this morning the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan has not changed. This, of course, a day after his comments prompted some confusion and a sharp response from China by saying the U.S. would be willing to respond militarily if China invades Taiwan.

CNN chief White House correspondent Kaitlan Collins is in Tokyo.

Kaitlan, what more do we know this morning?

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the president is saying that the policy has not changed, but it did change during that press conference when he went where very few presidents typically go when they have this policy that is known as strategic ambiguity, where typically it's this practice where presidents would say China should not use force in Taiwan, but they wouldn't exactly spell out what the United States would do should China do that and take that step.

And President Biden did, in that press conference, where he said, yes, the United States would get involved militarily if China were to attack Taiwan, something he was asked about, even drawing the distinction of what has happened in Ukraine and how the United States has treated that and how they would respond in Taiwan.

Of course, the president supplying Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars in weapons, but not putting U.S. troops on the ground. And he did say he would respond militarily when it came to Taiwan.

And so the president was asked earlier by my colleague Jeremy Diamond about whether or not that idea, that policy of strategic ambiguity is now over with these comments that he made, and this is what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Mr. President, is the policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan dead?

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: No.

DIAMOND: Could you explain?

BIDEN: No.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mr. President, would you send troops to Taiwan if China invaded?

BIDEN: The policy has not changed at all. I stated that when I made my statement yesterday.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: The president saying there that his policy has not changed, though, of course he did go further than simply saying that the United States would supply arms to Taiwan. He said that they would get involved militarily.

And, Jim and Erica, this is really a conversation about Russia and this invasion of Ukraine that has loomed over this entire meeting with world leaders and really changed the dynamic of these conversations that he's having with each of them, including the prime minister of India, Prime Minister Modi, where, of course, that has been one of very few leaders, definitely of the ones that were here in Tokyo, who has been very reluctant to criticize Putin for his invasion of Ukraine. He hasn't even really referred to it as an invasion or as a war. He has not stopped importing oil from Russia. He's only accelerated a lot of those purchases. And you can see the divide. While it may not be very obvious on the surface, you can see it in little details, like the readouts that you're getting from each side because the United States and the White House readout said that President Biden condemned the invasion during his meeting with Prime Minister Modi. You look at the Indian version, it doesn't even mention the invasion.

SCIUTTO: Yes, India buys a lot of oil from Russia, also a lot of weapons.

Kaitlan Collins in Tokyo, thanks so much.

Joining me now to discuss, Balbina Hwang. She's a former senior advisor for the U.S. State Department and a visiting professor now at Georgetown University.

Good to have you here.

BALBINA HWANG, FORMER SENIOR ADVISER, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: Good morning.

SCIUTTO: As a practical matter, has U.S. policy in fact changed regarding Taiwan? The president has now said more than once that the U.S. would respond militarily if China were to invade.

HWANG: Well, yes. I'm not so certain practically speaking. In fact, I'm not so certain that strategic ambiguity is really in fact a policy at all. If anything, it's really an attitude. I know that sounds a little odd to call a very important strategic aspect of U.S. foreign policy that has dominated for almost 50 years an attitude. But, in fact, that's what it is. It's a broad understanding of how the United States has framed its thinking about one of the most important countries in the world and shaped it. But now we've become a lot more clearer. And, frankly, I think President Biden is -- has just simply added clarity about actions that will probably -- frankly, that everybody has been thinking about, and this has now added clarity.

SCIUTTO: China is responding as if this is a change. Does that response and does clarity you're talking about, does it make a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more or less likely? Does it deter them or does it push them to act now?

HWANG: Well, look, of course China is going to react this way but we have to think that strategic ambiguity, frankly, has, in fact, benefited China for the last 50 years. And that is exactly why the United States has pursued it. It was, in fact, this attitude that benefited both of our countries, as we adopted, as we recognized Beijing and we adopted this one China policy.

[09:25:03]

But it is clearly an attitude that isn't really working anymore given the changes in the globe. And from the allies perspective, President Biden just finished several days meeting and speaking with two of our most important allies. They need clarity. We have formal agreements with them and all of our other allies need assurance.

SCIUTTO: Let me ask you this, for folks watching at home, the question is, will their sons and daughters be sent to defend Taiwan if China were to invade? I mean that's the question for Americans. HWANG: The question is, if whether or not China invades. And that is

really the question. The United States would not cause China to invade. And the world knows that that is something that China should not be doing. So, yes, the United States will come to the defense of democracies and ideals around the world. We have proven that. That is exactly why President Biden was in Japan and South Korea. We have troops there and our sons and daughters, husbands and wives and fathers are defending Japanese and South Koreans even today.

SCIUTTO: North Korea, another issue here. The Biden administration, South Korea, agreed to expand joint military exercises. Something that the Trump administration had deliberately moved back.

Is that the right move to deter North Korea? Does North Korea take that as, well, claim it as a provocation or does it see new unity between the allies?

HWANG: I think North Korea is going to act and continue to progress on its nuclear weapons regardless of what President Biden and President Yoon have agreed to. And currently right now North Korea is dealing with this Covid outbreak. So, in the shorter term, it's going to have to address its internal problems. But I don't think that we ought to worry about how North Korea will react and therefore tailor our decisions.

SCIUTTO: Understood. Balbina Hwang, thanks so much for joining us.

HWANG: All right. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: Erica.

HILL: Still ahead here, a major policy change at the Justice Department. A new memo on use of force, now saying federal agents must intervene if they see abuse. Those details, next.

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