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Dems Slightly Favored To Hold On To Senate After November; Poll: 72 percent Of Economists Expect A U.S. Recession By Mid-2023; Injured Little Leaguer Expected To Be OK. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired August 22, 2022 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:30:00]

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POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: It seemed unlikely just few months ago, right? But the data now suggests Democrats could keep control of the Senate in the midterms.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, long way to go the park party in power historically loses seats in the first midterm elections, that's still the prediction for the House but Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell last week acknowledged that Republicans taking back the Senate will be difficult.

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SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-Ky): I think there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome. Right now we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50- 50 country. But I think when all of a sudden done this fall, we're lucky to have an extremely close Senate.

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SCIUTTO: So what do the numbers show? CNN Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten joins us now. So Harry, is McConnell right, do Republicans have a candidate problem and where exactly?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes, Jim. I think that they do and let's take a look at the horse race in four key states. Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. These were all States that were won by Joe Biden by about a point or less that in a normal midterm year in which you have the tide going against The White House Party, you would expect Republicans to be ahead.

[10:35:00]

But look here Arizona, eight point lead for Mark Kelly; Georgia, four point lead for Raphael Warnock; Pennsylvania, 11 point lead for John Fetterman and perhaps the biggest shocker Mandela Barnes up by an average of six points in Wisconsin. Why is that?

Look at the net favourability of the Republican candidates running in these States and it will give you the perfect reason why. They are all in the red. They are all in the red. Look, Blake Masters in Arizona, four points under water; Herschel Walker in Georgia five points underwater; Mehmet Oz 20 points underwater favorable minus unfavorable.

I don't know if I've ever called the number that bad in a purple state for a Republican candidate. And Ron Johnson, the incumbent, eight points underwater and compare that to the Democratic nominees who are all above water. Mark Kelly, six points above water; Raphael Warnock just one point but that's certainly better than Herschel Walker; John Fetterman, 15 points above water and Mandela Barnes, 14 points above water.

It is very clear that Democrats are ahead and the reason why is actually pretty simple. And that is their candidates are liked. And the Republican candidates simply put at this point, are not.

HARLOW: just a few words from McConnell about candidate quality getting everyone talking for sure on the Senate side. Harry, thanks very, very much. So let's get some analysis here. Let's bring in Senior Political Correspondent for Puck, Tara Palmeri. Tara, great, great to have you here. And let's just start with that and the argument that McConnell is making.

He didn't have to name names, but a number of the folks that he's talking about are clear, and they're all endorsed and backed by Trump, whether you look at Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker in Georgia, JD Vance in Ohio, what do you make of it?

TARA PALMERI, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, PUCK: Yes, these candidates have given McConnell a lot of (inaudible) as well. They've - some of them said publicly on the campaign trail that they won't vote for him for leader if the Republicans take back the Senate. But yes, I mean, he always saw that these would be difficult candidates to bring across the line of general election.

They were sufficiently MAGA enough for an endorsement from President Trump that helped them in a primary. But it's a totally different game when you get into a general election, you're trying to win over the hearts and minds of independents. You've got Blake Masters in Arizona, which is still like a pretty purple state trying to go up against Mark Kelly, who is, you know, pretty popular senator and he still says that the election was stolen.

That, I don't know how that bodes with Arizonans, with people from Arizona who tend to be more independent. Right now, they have two Democratic senators and you've got this kind of Republican hardliner to the right trying to win in a general election. And I think you're seeing that all over the map. And it's made it really difficult for Mitch McConnell, who, by the way, is about to spend over $100 million in advertising to help prop up candidate, many of them said they don't want him to be the leader of the Senate.

HARLOW: Yes, well, it's been interesting to see, for example, Blake Masters' sort of change in rhetoric on that front when it comes to McConnell. This morning, Jim pointed out something super interesting to me that I want your take on and that's this NBC polling that shows that Democrats have significantly narrowed the enthusiasm gap since just May.

So in May, Republicans had a 17 percent lead in terms of, are you enthusiastic about the next election and midterms? Democrats have narrowed that to two points. So Republicans are only ahead by two points on that front. And when they asked the pollsters why, it was Dobbs, it was the abortion decision from the Supreme Court that was a big driver in that enthusiasm gap. I just wonder what your reporting is showing you on that front?

PALMERI: Absolutely. And I think, you know, from a lot of Republican strategists that I've spoken to, they just don't know how to deal with the abortion issue. A lot of them are personally pro-choice. A lot of them are based in DC. They are, you know, not Evangelical, and they have a hard time helping their candidates with messaging.

They've tried to say, we need to go back to safe, legal and rare and that these Democrats are not for safe, legal and rare. They want late term abortions and that's been their way of tackling the issue. But it's a really difficult one for a lot of Republicans to embrace, especially in purple States.

A lot of people have looked to Glenn Younkin, as an example of how he was able to win Virginia, but that was different. That was before Dobbs was overturned. Now you have a lot of - you have a lot of voters, independents, Democrats, women who are really charged up about this issue. I also think January 6 has - the January 6 hearings, perhaps have created a real dent, and in sort of morale for Republican candidates.

I think that's why you're starting to see the topic, I think in that same NBC poll, they said that threats to democracy.

HARLOW: Yes.

PALMERI: Finally--

HARLOW: We have that.

PALMERI: - superseded class of living. Exactly. And I think that if anything that just shows the power of these January 6 hearings, and I think Americans are starting to understand how close we were to losing the you know, peaceful exchange of power and what went behind that. And also from that same poll, 57 percent of people think that we should continue investigating the former president so things have changed over this summer for sure.

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HARLOW: It's Like you're reading my mind. All these numbers that I was going to bring up to you. That's exactly right and I have to be honest. When I was talking to our - our teammate Marcus about this, this morning, I said, is that that 21 percent think threat to democracy being number one on this poll for - for folks and issues? Is that is that just among Democrats or is it all voters? And what's super interesting when you look into it is that even 16 percent of GOP voters responding to this poll, call that the number one issue is threats to democracy, which is tied with number two 16 percent cost of living. That's - that's significant.

PALMERI: That's going to be a problem for Trump if he runs again. Yes, not that 20 percent 16 percent. That's, that's going to - you can probably - you can win the Republican primary with 30 percent of these GOP voters, but he still has 20 percent that may have just hardened and said, I'm not voting for him again. And that's going to be a problem in a general election.

Now, I'm forecasting far, far ahead with that comment. But as we know, he definitely wants to run for re-election. That's what he's telling his aides. And so you kind of have to look at this polling. One more thing, though. I just want to say about August polling, it always tends to tighten up. It can be very weird at the same time. People are on vacation, it's still 80 days away. But I do - I really look at this threat to democracy, superseding cost of living as a huge indicator of what's to come.

HARLOW: Just - just to one note, we don't know, it didn't get more specific as to what threats to democracy.

PALMERI: That's true.

HARLOW: So we'll have to see exactly what they're talking about. Tara, thanks very much for the analysis and the great reporting, as always.

PALMERI: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: It is yet one more big week for the U.S. economy. We're going to tell you what key reports are on the way that could indicate if the U.S. is headed toward a recession.

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[10:45:00]

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SCIUTTO: One new survey finds that a large majority of economists believe the U.S. will be in a recession by the middle of next year.

HARLOW: There are even some economists who believe we're in a recession right now. Joining us now is CNN Business and Economics Reporter Matt Egan. Matt, good to have you. What do the numbers say?

MATT EAGAN, CNN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS REPORTER: Well, Jim and Poppy, this is a very gloomy survey, especially on a Monday. It finds that more than half, 53 percent to be exact of economists, they expect a recession by the middle of next year and almost one in five, they say that the U.S. economy is already in recession.

Now the big fear here is that the Federal Reserve is going to go too far in its war on inflation. Remember, the Fed is trying to get the cost of living under control by aggressively raising interest rates. And that is increasing the cost of borrowing credit cards and car loans and of course, mortgages.

But the risk is that the Fed is going to overdo it, and that they're going to end up slowing the economy right into a recession. And I was struck by how in this survey, three in four economists, they say that they are not confident that the Fed can get inflation under control without causing recession.

And these concerns are starting to weigh on the stock market, again. The DOW is down of almost 500 points, around 1.5 percent as we speak. Again, that is on concerns about the health of the economy, worries about what the Fed is going to have to do. It is a confusing time, I think for the economy.

There's a lot of negatives, inflation is way too high. But there's also some positives, right? The jobs market remains very strong; gas prices are down 69 days in a row. The Fed, they insist that they might be able to get a soft landing, right? Get inflation under control without causing recession but clearly, economists and Investors are - they're skeptical.

SCIUTTO: No question. Criticism, they were too slow to address it right now and then fears that they're going to over address it. Matt Egan, thanks so much.

EAGAN: Thank you.

HARLOW: Thank you, Matt. All right. Despite another fall over the weekend, there is some good news for us to report on the recovery of this Little Leaguer who fractured his skull after falling out of a bunk bed. We'll bring you the latest next.

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HARLOW: Well, a fall over the weekend could have been quite a setback for a 12-year old little league player who fractured his skull more than a week ago.

SCIUTTO: Yes, poor little guy, another fall but we do have good news about Easton Oliverson's recovery this morning. CNN Sports Anchor Andy Scholes has been following it all and he has this morning's Bleacher Report. Tell us, I hope there's some good news.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Yes, it's some good news, Jim and Poppy. You know, doctors had said that Easton Oliverson is expected to make a near full recovery after having emergency brain surgery to save his life. But as you mentioned, he did have a big scare over the weekend as he fell and hit his head again.

This time at the hospital. Easton was trying to go to the bathroom by himself in the middle of the night, which he is not supposed to do. That's when he fell. Doctors, they performed a CT scan following that fall to make sure there wasn't any swelling in his brain. And thankfully, the results came back normal. Now Easton's dad Jace was on Good Morning America earlier this morning, he gave an update on his condition.

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JACE OLIVERSON, EASTON OLIVERSON'S FATHER: The doctors are just stunned by his progression in a short amount of time with where he was. There's going to be really hard times and you just got to overcome those hard times and just keep pushing forward.

SCHOLES: Yes, and over the weekend, Easton thanked everyone for their thoughts and prayers.

EASTON OLIVERSON, INJURED IN BUNK BED FALL: This is Easton, thank you for the prayers.

J. OLIVERSON: It's starting to feel better, bud?

E. OLIVERSON: Yes, I'm starting to feel better.

J. OLIVERSON: Awesome. Team Eaton, we love you buddy.

E. OLIVERSON: I love you too.

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SCHOLES: And we're all pulling for Easton. His teammates on the Snow Canyon team from Utah took the field yesterday and after rain delayed nearly four hours they were eliminated with a 10-2 loss to the kids from Davenport, Iowa. Snow Canyon was the first ever Little League team from Utah to make it to Williamsport and tournaments in its 75- year history.

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Guys, the family said they've made plans with the Children's Hospital in Utah and they hope to fly Easton back home tomorrow to continue his recovery there. All right.

SCIUTTO: It's so good to hear. I mean, it's so good to hear he's improving. When you see his little face there, right and he's just struggling, you know, he wants to get better. And the parents have been very vocal, right about sharing all the information as it comes.

SCHOLES: Yes, they certainly have. You know, they know a lot of people are pulling for him they have an Instagram account where they continue to just keep posting updates, pictures, videos, people who get to come and visit Easton. So you know, it's obviously like I said, the team from Utah is eliminated, Jim and Poppy, but I'm sure this is a story we're going to keep - keep updating you on.

And here's hoping to Easton makes a full recovery sometime soon.

HARLOW: Get well soon from all of us.

SCIUTTO: The whole team's behind you.

HARLOW: Andy, thanks so much as always, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We'll see you right back here tomorrow morning. I'm Poppy Harlow.

SCIUTTO: And I'm Jim Sciutto. At this Hour, with Kate Bolduan will start right after a short break.

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