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Hurricane is Gone, Political Blame Game Comes Next; Category Two Hurricane Orlene to Hit Mexico; Tight Race for Next President in Brazil; Liz Truss Reverse Plan to Scrap 45p Tax; Ukraine Reclaimed Lyman from Russian Troops; Seven American Prisoners Back in U.S. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired October 03, 2022 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us here in the United States and all around the world. You are watching CNN Newsroom. And I'm Rosemary Church.

Just ahead, as Florida begins the daunting task of recovering from Hurricane Ian, hear how state officials are responding to criticism over what could have been done better.

Plus, mourning and anger in Indonesia following one of the deadliest sporting disasters ever. We will have the latest in a live report. And CNN takes you inside a key city recaptured by Ukraine just a day after the Kremlin declared it part of Russia.

Well, five days after Hurricane Ian hammered parts of Florida, authorities are scouring more hard-hit areas to find survivors. Over the weekend, they evacuated about 400 people from an isolated island in Lee County, one of the most ravaged communities in the state. In central Florida they also recovered this patrol car from the side of a road which had been washed away by floodwaters.

In the town of Arcadia, heavy flooding has also submerged entire neighborhoods like these. The situation there is so bad people can only move by sailing on boats instead of driving in cars.

CNN's Nadia Romero visited the area and filed this report.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NADIA ROMERO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came right here to Arcadia, Florida to meet with the National Guard and to meet with people who live in this community who've been blocked, trapped in this community because of all of the flooding, blocking this major highway behind me.

This is Highway 70. It should connect to two bridges. You should be able to make your way down to Palm Beach in Fort Myers, Florida, but you can't right now unless you have a boat because there's just too much water. And so the governor came by boat here with other members of his staff to meet with the National Guard and to meet with people and shake their hands.

And while he was here, I was able to ask him about Lee County's, their mandatory evacuations. That's where Fort Myers is, and that's the area that has the majority of those deaths that we're seeing are coming from Lee County. Now their mandatory evacuation order wasn't put in place until Tuesday, the day before the storm, and some people are questioning if that was just too late. This was the governor's response.

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL): I think for, probably for various reasons. Some people just don't want to leave their home. Period. They're island people, whatever. But I think part of it was so much attention was paid to Tampa that I think a lot of them probably thought that they wouldn't get the worst of it.

So, you know, they, but they did and, and I think it's -- it's easy to second guess them, but they were ready for the whole time.

ROMERO: Is that one of the things you'll be reviewing once we get out of the aftermath? People get their power back on looking at those evacuation orders because even Lee County, if they would've followed their own evacuation orders from what we've reviewed, they should have had that mandatory evacuation order sooner.

DESANTIS: Well, but you know, the issue though is also that there were a lot of, you know, they informed people and most people did not want to do it. I mean, that's just, that's just the reality. So, you know, you're in a situation, are you going to grab someone out of their home that doesn't want to? I don't think that's the appropriate use of government. I mean, I think that takes it a little too far.

ROMERO: Now the governor went on to talk about the relief efforts that are coming to people who are in need, and you can see some of those efforts me behind me. These are boxes of MREs that have been lined up here for people who are in need. Remember, we're talking days after Hurricane Ian hit.

Many people are still without power. They're running out of food, water, and just necessary things like toilet paper, paper towels, and diapers. This continues to be a concern for those who survived the storm now trying to survive the aftermath.

Nadia Romero, CNN, Arcadia, Florida.

CHURCH: And as the U.S. recovers from Ian, its southern neighbor, Mexico is bracing for another big storm.

CNN's Pedram Javaheri is here and he has been keeping a very close eye on what is happening. What are you saying, Pedram?

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, Rosemary watching Hurricane Orlene closely here as it approaches land inside the next 12 or so hours. This is a category two storm system sitting just offshore of the west coast there of Mexico and near Puerto Vallarta, just north of Puerto Vallarta.

One hundred five mile per hour winds. This was a system that just 24 hours ago had surged an intensity to category four strength landfall -- still slated from Monday afternoon, Monday evening, and the biggest threat with the storm it's going to be the significant rainfall, and of course the storm surge threat.

[03:04:56]

But you'll take a look at the wind speeds here in just the span of hours. Another system that rapidly intensified going from 75 miles per hour to 130 miles per hour. But fortunately, with the storm, very different to what we saw with Ian as it was approaching land. That system was strengthening. The system far smaller and also weakening.

Notice the wind field quite a bit less as far as how far of a reach of tropical storm force winds. We saw the cloud field of the system, the sheer size of it, only a third of the size of Hurricane Ian. So, the impacts certainly will be far smaller than what we saw. And of course, this particular region of Mexico, especially south of Mazatlan, very sparsely populated.

Now, you take a look at this, the storm surge spread could approach two meters, in some cases, close to six feet across some of these areas. But again, some of these areas are very much isolated in nature and this system is going to weaken further as it approaches landfall.

We think category one Monday, right around say 5, 6 p.m. local time, as it moves ashore. And the environment here is such that not only do we have elevated terrain inland from the Sierra Madre Mountains, but also of course a very arid landscape. So, the system and its impact is going to be localized and not spread as far out as what we saw with Ian.

Rainfall totals maybe four to six inches, a few pockets could exceed 10, maybe 14 inches. That's the highest amounts. Again, south of Mazatlan. We're watching carefully. And then you notice the tropics. There are a couple areas of interest that we're looking at right now. Still ways out there, but very quiet weather pattern developing across portions of the eastern United States. A quiet, really for much of the United States in general. So at least a break in the action here from all of the tropical activity we've seen in recent days.

CHURCH: All right, Pedram Javaheri, many thanks joining us and bringing us up to date with that. I appreciate it.

A high stakes presidential election in the world's fourth largest democracy is headed to a second round of voting. With nearly all the votes counted, election authorities say the leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads with more than 48 percent of the tally while the current right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro trails with just over 43 percent.

Late Sunday, both candidates accused the other camp of spreading lies.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAIR BOLSONARO, PRESIDENT OF BRAZIL (through translator): We overcame today's lie. Statistics saying it would be 50-30 result. We overcame that lie. We are moving forward. We're all is now equal and we will better demonstrate for the Brazilian people.

LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA, FORMER PRESIDENT OF BRAZIL (through translator): Now there will be a face-to-face debate with the president of the Republic to see if he keeps telling lies or if he will tell the truth to the Brazilian people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Well, since neither side top the 50 percent threshold to win outright, a second round of voting is now set for October 30.

Well, a major change of course from Britain's new government just as day two of the Conservative Party conference is set to begin. The chancellor of the exchequer announced moments ago the government is reversing its plan to scrap the highest rate of income tax.

Kwasi Kwarteng saying in a statement, we are not proceeding with the abolition of the 45p tax rate. We get it and we have listened. What they get is the public fury, the plan set loose. Protestors have been marching in Birmingham outside the Tory conference and some said they feel squeezed from all sides.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNKNOWN: Everyone is just sick to death of it. I mean, the heartbreaking stories you hear now of people who can't afford to heat their homes, people who have to go to work on empty stomachs, people in the NHS, and these latest announcements around tax cuts for the rich, it just begs belief. It really does.

UNKNOWN: What they do for me when I'm putting my taxes off, putting bills off, you're not helping me, working people can't get the extra support while everyone else is getting in, but we still fought in hard times. So, what about us?

UNKNOWN: As simple as the richer are getting richer and the poorer are getting poorer, and the divide in this country is getting larger.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: All right, let's go straight to CNN's Bianca Nobilo where the Tories are meeting. Bianca, great to see you. So, Liz Truss's new government already in trouble and apparently scrambling. What is the latest on all of this?

BIANCA NOBILO, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: In disarray that. That U-turn from the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng was screeching. And though it will be welcomed by conservative M.P.s and the public at large, it does just present the government as being in dire straits already.

Liz Truss has been prime minister for a month, and yet she's experienced double digit poll plummeting. The conservative party will already in a very dangerous and toxic position under the former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. You would expect a honeymoon period, but not so. Then her economic policies that she announced and that with the defining feature of her campaign to become prime minister have been largely panned and put the party in an even more difficult position.

So, this U-turn this morning is a recognition of the difficulty that the prime minister and the chancellor find themselves in. And it's not a difficult realization to come by, Rosemary. And that's because we've had rebellions from Conservative M.P.s.

[03:10:00]

We've had former cabinet ministers coming out and slating the entire economic package and questioning the prime minister's judgment. Because Rosemary, this 45p tax cut that you were just referring to, actually was only two billion pounds worth of a 45-billion-pound package to address the economic difficulties.

So many M.P.s are questioning well, given that it was actually a small-ish proportion of the package at large, why would you choose to do something that has such horrible optics for a country that's struggling cutting the taxes for the very wealthiest. And what it did, Rosemary, was managed to do two things simultaneously that are so damaging for this prime minister.

First of all, it completely undermined the Conservative party's reputation for fiscal and economic credibility. And in the longitudinal analysis that is one of their strengths. So that's pretty much shot at the moment. And the other thing that it did is play into one of the most toxic narratives about the conservative party that the Labour Party are always trying to hammer.

And that's -- they don't care about ordinary working people. They're out to support the bankers and the wealthiest. So, the decisions of the last week managed to drive both of those points home simultaneously, which is why at this party conference, when you'd expect the tone to be celebratory, you'd expect the prime minister to be on a high just a few weeks into the job. She is in a perilous position, Rosemary.

CHURCH: Bianca, you have spent some time on the streets with some of those protestors. Do you think this reversal, this U-turn of the government's tax plan will be enough to placate those protestors at this juncture?

NOBILO: As far as the protestors that we spoke to yesterday, Rosemary, it's too far gone. There's nothing that Liz Truss can do at this point that will garner their support. It's natural to have protests at a party conference. We see them every year, and in fact, I was a little surprised that they weren't bigger given the huge public fury and frustration and what the government have been doing lately.

But there have been rail strikes throughout the country. It's made it difficult for people to get here. I do think this reversal will be welcomed by the public at large. Those protestors were mainly complaining about the cost-of-living crisis. They felt that the conservative party weren't on the side of them and the working people, and they feel like after 12 years of this party being in government, that their living standards, that their opportunities are all worse than they were before.

And they say it's time for this government to leave. And quite, you know, quite a few people said to me that they were out there on the streets to get across the message that Liz Truss and her party are not welcome here in Birmingham, as far as they're concerned, Rosemary.

CHURCH: Well, we'll see whether her government continues to listen to the people.

Bianca Nobilo joining us live from Birmingham. Many thanks.

Well still to come, Ukraine reclaims the key city of Lyman from Russia. A CNN crew is there to witness the devastation left behind. We're back in just a moment.

[03:15:00]

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CHURCH: In the coming hours, Russia's lower House of Parliament is set to consider treaties submitted by President Vladimir Putin on the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. The Russian leader began the process Friday by signing agreements to join the territories to Russia following so-called referendums condemned by the west as a sham.

The four regions include, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and also Donetsk where the key city of Lyman is now back in the hands of Ukrainian forces after Russian troops retreated over the weekend. A CNN team arrived in the city of Lyman about 30 minutes after Ukraine's president declared a clear of all Russian troops.

CNN's Nick Paton Walsh reports on the devastation left.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: It may not look like much, but this is where Putin's defeat in Donetsk began, a prize from the last century perhaps, but train and tracks are still how Russia wages war today. Lyman and what's left of it now freed of Russia.

Now this is what it was all about the Central railway hub here now in Ukrainian hands and devastated by the fighting. And this was such a seminal part of Russia's occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk. The concern for Moscow is the knock-on effect this is going to have for their forces all the way to the Russian border.

On the town's edges we saw no sign of the hundreds of Russian prisoners or dead that had been expected to follow Moscow's strategic defeat here, nor inside it either. Perhaps they have already been taken away. Instead, utter silence. Only local bicycles on the streets. Several residents told us, the Russians actually left in large numbers

on Friday.

TANYA, LYMAN RESIDENT (through translator): They left in the night in the day, people said, I didn't see it myself, but they say they sat on their APCs and their bags were falling off as they drove. They ran like this.

WALSH: It would be remarkable timing that Russia fled Lyman in the very same hours that Putin was signing papers declaring here Russian territory and holding a rally on Red Square. A similar story in the local administration where the only signs of Russia left are burned flags.

"They ran away without saying a word to anybody," he says, "it was bad. No work, no gas, no power, nothing. The shops didn't work." It truly feels as if there is nobody left. A ghostly silence here, apart from occasional shelling and small arms fire, and it is so much of this town utterly destroyed. So many locals we're told leaving when the Ukrainian push towards it began, but now it's just this utter ghostliness in a place that's such a strategic defeat for Russia.

[03:20:03]

Gunfire In the distance, they're nervous. Some Russians may be left. Outside, what's left of the court. The constant change in violence is too much for some, her husband just arrested.

UNKNOWN (on screen text): You want the truth? You put on a hat, you take off a hat. What life is this? I am 72 years old. I'm like a rat in a basement crawling out of the basement.

UNKNOWN (on screen text): You will not show this, the truth. Yesterday, Ukraine came checked documents on a checkpoint. And took my husband.

UNKNOWN (on screen text): A man disappeared from the police station. One hat, another hat.

UNKNOWN (on screen text): People are suffering. One beats us, another beats us, and we cry.

WALSH: The Ukrainian troops we did see had already stopped celebrating. There is little time, they are on the move again. Another Russian target further east Kreminna in their sites. And those left in Lyman, a town cursed to have these bars of rusting steel running through it are gathering the ruins to burn for fuel with winter ahead.

Left in the wake of Russia's collapse here, a town they took weeks to occupy for only hours to leave.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, Lyman, Ukraine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: Ukraine's President says his country's military successes extend beyond the city of Lyman with two settlements in the Kherson region and a village near Lyman now among a growing list of areas liberated by Ukrainian forces,

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): The story of the liberation of Lyman and Donetsk region has now become the most popular in the media, but the successes of our soldiers are not limited to Lyman. I thank everyone who brings these moments of victory closer, who returns the Ukrainian flag to its rightful place on Ukrainian land. I thank everyone from generals to ordinary soldiers, from professional soldiers, intelligence and special forces to volunteers and everyone who helps defend our state.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: And CNN's Clare Sebastian is following these developments for us from London. She joins us now live. Good to see you, Clare.

So, we just heard President Zelenskyy touting his nation's success. What's the tone and sentiment in Russia?

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Rosemary, it's interesting because I think the aim, one of the aims in many ways of the annexation and the ceremony that we saw, the scenes on Red Square on Friday were to counteract the effect that the mobilization has had on public opinion, which has really rattled it.

This was really the first time that this war has started to affect Russian's lives, and we've seen not only protests of course, but a mass exodus of fighting age men. I think the initial signs are that it hasn't slowed down the sense of fear that we see in Russia, especially around this mobilization.

We're seeing still on Russia's tightly controlled state media that signs of frustration scapegoating are creeping in. No one really overtly criticizing President Putin for this, but a former Russian commander now a politician on Russian State TV did criticize the commanders involved in the conflict.

A similar tone we had as well from Ramzan Kadyrov who is the Chechen leader, he himself has supported the war, even sent troops from Chechnya before the mobilization to fight. He also criticized those involved accusing the head of the central command of the military in Russia from being -- for being a hundred miles he said away from his troops. That's why things were going wrong on the battlefield.

But this is, you know, something that we are seeing continuing despite the annexation in the attempt to stir up patriotism. And one really interesting sign is that Russia clearly isn't taking any chances when it comes to the control of information.

We saw over the weekend that Russian authorities have now restricted access to the audio web site SoundCloud, because they said it was spreading false information about the war. So that is something to watch as we move forward here.

CHURCH: And Clare, on another issue where does Ukraine stand on NATO membership right now? Yes, so President Zelenskyy said that on Friday that Ukraine was now applying for fast-track NATO membership. That clearly came just in the wake of President Putin's announcements of these annexations. And we know that NATO expansion, particularly to Ukraine is a red line for Russia.

It's not clear yet how fast that fast track will be. We have fairly significantly seen nine NATO members from Central and Eastern Europe come out and say they would support Ukraine's membership. That's nine out of 30.

[03:25:02]

And not including the major players like the United States, Germany, France, and those, and I think it's clear that the fast track won't be particularly fast. NATO itself is not explicitly endorsed. Secretary Generally Jens Stoltenberg simply saying that any European democracy can apply for NATO membership.

And it is of course, extremely risky for the alliance, not at least because it would clearly signify an escalation in the eyes of Moscow, but also it would formally commit to Ukraine's defense under article five, which would be a big step up even with the military aid that we've already seen, Rosemary.

CHURCH: Clare Sebastian joining us live from London. Many thanks.

The seven Americans released during a recent prisoner exchange with the Venezuelan government are now safely back in the United States. That is according to a U.S. State Department official. President Joe Biden announced their return on Saturday, saying they had been wrongfully detained for years.

The group included five oil executives, members of the so-called Sitgo Six. In exchange, the Biden administration released two nephews of Venezuelan first ladies Cilia Flores. They had been sentenced in the US to 18 years in prison on drug smuggling charges.

Well still to come, criticism is growing over the police response when a football match in Indonesia spiraled into chaos and violence. Those details in a report from the region, next.

Plus, in Iran, police clash with students at a prominent university as crackdowns increase on anti-government protestors. We'll have details on that too.

[03:30:08]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: The crackdown on anti-government demonstrations in Iran continue in several key cities. We have video of one encounter that is disturbing. Police clash with students at a prominent university in Tehran following what appears to be a pellet gun at protesters. CNN is unable to confirm what happened after the shot was fired. The university's official newspaper reports that security forces fired less lethal pellets at large groups of students.

The protests began last month after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody. She was detained by the morality police for allegedly not complying with strict hijab rules.

CNN's Jomana Karadsheh is following the story closely from Istanbul and filed this report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the gut- wrenching grief of a sister burying her brother. A forever goodbye too soon for 36-year-old Javad Heydari shot and killed at a protest. Fatima cuts off her hair and tosses it over his grave. These anguish cries make it hard to understand what she says, but her pain needs no words.

For so many in Iran, cutting off hair is an age-old mourning right. But it has also become a poignant form of protest for those rising up for their rights, united in their anger and their battle for change.

And from every corner of the world, women are sending the messages of solidarity. In Syria's Kurdish region, a woman chops off her hair to the chant, "women, life, freedom," one of the slogans of Iran's protests. In Istanbul, as fans cheered, Turkish singer Melek Mosso cut her hair live on stage. To the women of Iran, she said, you are not alone.

Far from the streets of their homeland, Iranian women abroad have joined in the protests. For Mahsa Amini, this woman tweeted. Faezeh Afshan says only her dad could braid and cut her thick, curly hair. She hadn't cut it since he died in March. She was one of the firsts to post her hair cutting video online.

FAEZEH AFSHAN, POSTED HAIR CUTTING VIDEO ONLINE: It was more than a gesture for me. It was like saying goodbye to all those beautiful memories of him cutting my hair with love because this time, I cut it with anger. I needed to do something to take part in what my beautiful people are doing.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): What's happening in Iran is a women's uprising. Not only are they on the streets leading protests, braving the bullets, the threat of jail or flogging, they're now challenging the Islamic republic and its so-called morality enforcers, walking the streets in broad daylight, no head scarves, no fear.

The bearer of that fear now broken. These two women sat for breakfast in a traditional tea house, a space typically for men. Donya Rad on the right was arrested after the photo went viral. We don't know what happened to the other woman. But that and an intensifying crackdown hasn't stopped other Iranian women. Many are revolting to reclaim freedoms lost, their right to choose. These two sisters in Tehran with a fancy rendition of Bella Ciao, the anthem of Italian resistance against fascists and Nazis, now the song of women breaking the shackles of very fascist (ph) regime.

Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, Istanbul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: People in Indonesia are mourning the victims of Saturday's deadly stadium disaster. Hundreds gathered for a candlelight vigil in Jakarta on Sunday. At least 125 were killed and more than 300 injured when chaos and violence erupted during a football match. Members of the home team and community laid flowers at a makeshift memorial just a short time ago.

CNN senior international correspondent Will Ripley is following the story from Taipei. he joins us now live. So, Will, what is the latest on this tragedy and who is taking responsibility for this?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly, the football club, the Arema Football Club, which is the stadium where this happened, they have said that they are ready to take full responsibility.

[03:35:00]

RIPLEY: But the focus here is really shifting into the police response. And now, the police in East Java, Indonesia are announcing an internal investigation into at least 18 officers who were equipped with tear gas at the match.

Tear gas is banned by FIFA, the governing body for global football, precisely because of what happened at the stadium that we saw on the social media video.

They sprayed it at the lower stands trying to stop people from rushing on to the pitch. But instead, when the tear gas floated upward because there was an updraft, then people in the upper stands with their children, families were there, they started to feel like they were suffocating. They started to choke. Their eyes started to water.

And so, you do what you instinctively do when tear gas hits you. It's what I did when I was tear gassed in Hong Kong. You run in the opposite direction. You try to get away from that plume of white smoke as quickly as possible before, you know, you can't breathe. And what happened was, unfortunately, so many people ran in the same direction at the same time towards the same exit. That's what caused this.

And so, now, these police that fired the tear gas that you see on the video there are under investigation, an internal investigation. But there are also -- there are also national probes that are going to be taking place to try to assess what went wrong and why this happened and, in the words of Indonesian President Joko Widodo, prevent this from happening again, Rosemary.

CHURCH: And why the police would have had that tear gas given they weren't supposed to have it in that location? Tell us more about what the Indonesian president is saying about this.

RIPLEY: Well, basically, he said that he is asking three of his top ministers to look into this and to organize, you know, a full and exhaustive probe, a thorough probe into what went wrong.

We do know that all 125 people who are now confirmed to be dead, they haven't been identified, they haven't collected by their families. They're still working to figure out how much financial assistance they're going to give those who were injured, those -- the families of those who were killed.

But it's really heartbreaking scenes that we're seeing play out, and you played a little of it in the introduction there, Rosemary. There are funerals that are being held, including for people who are either children or teenagers.

There was a funeral just today for two teenagers who died. Their older sister and brother-in-law were there at the soccer game, at the football match, and they saw firsthand what happened. They saw the tear gas and they saw their loved ones being suffocated.

Other witnesses who are mourning the deaths of their loved ones say that the police didn't treat them like humans. They felt that they were treated inhumanely, not just tear gas, but also in some cases beaten with sticks and treated with the kind of force that you shouldn't treat necessarily these unarmed football fans.

Yes, there were some who were very rowdy, who were starting fights, who were upset about the outcome because it was a loss for the home team, but the vast majority of the people who got caught up in this, Rosemary, were not those who were fighting or trying to get on to the pitch. They were people who were there with their families and their friends watching a football match, and they never went home.

CHURCH: It was just a horrifying tragedy. Will Ripley, bringing us the very latest from his vantage point there in Taipei, many thanks.

The U.S. is just over a month away from critical midterm elections, but it is shaping up to be anything but a normal election year. We will explain after the short break. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:40:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone. The U.S. is entering the home stretch of the midterm election season, and the Republicans' hopes of retaking Congress are far from certain when voters go to the polls next month. Hot button issues, including abortion rights, gun violence, climate change, and threats to democracy are reshaping races nationwide.

Experts are now predicting only modest gains for Republicans in the House and leading pollsters say the Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate. Joining me now is CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. It is always good to have you with us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Rosemary.

CHURCH: So, Ron, you wrote in your recent article in "The Atlantic" that Republicans began the year expecting sweeping Senate gains but the chances have since dwindled. Why has that happened, do you think?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, when the year started, Republicans thought they had a chance to beat as many as six sitting Democratic senators. And now, their true top tier chances where both sides believe they had realistic opportunity had probably dwindled to just two, Nevada and Georgia.

On the other side, Democrats don't have many more opportunities either. That's a larger story about how stalemated and rigid the Senate battlefield has become.

I think what has happened to Republicans is a combination of a shifting political environment and some ineffective choices by GOP voters in primaries. I mean, Arizona and New Hampshire were supposed to be states where they thought they could really press the Democrats. Instead, they had Trump-backed nominees who now look incapable really of getting over the line, and then generally including political climate for Democrats with taking Colorado and Washington off the peg (ph). Having said that, because Democrats don't have that many opportunities on the other side, we are still on a coin flip for control of the Senate itself.

CHURCH: Yeah, and you said that, didn't you, in your article, that it remains entirely possible that November's results will leave the Senate divided again at 50-50. I mean, what makes you so sure of that outcome? What would the consequences be if that is the case in terms of trying to get things done for the next two years?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, first, if the Senate in fact did end up 50/50 again in this election, that has never happened before in the U.S. since the direct election of senators which came into play immediately after World War I. We never had two 50-50 Senate in back-to-back elections.

That is the reflection of the larger point, Rosemary, which is that our politics is becoming much more rigid. The number of states that either side can realistically compete for is shrinking. And one of the results of that is that both parties have failed to achieve the kind of majorities that used to be common.

From 1960 to 1980, Democrats had a majority of 55 seats or more in nine of the 10 congresses. From 1980 to 2000, one party of the other had a majority of 55 or more senators in seven of the 10 congresses. It only happened three times since 2000. And because neither side can get very far ahead, we haven't been able to sustain a majority for very long either.

[03:45:00] BROWNSTEIN: Neither party had a majority for more than eight years consecutive since 1980. That also has never happened in American history. So, if it's not 50/50, it's probably going to be 51, 49 for one side of the other. It's a reflection of just how dug in we are in America and how durable and deep this red new divide has become.

CHURCH: And so, what will likely happen in the House, do you think?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I mean, the House is tougher for democrats. You know, as I've mentioned before, Republicans only need four, five seats to win the majority. There were only literally four elections since the Civil War, when the president's party has not lost that many seats in the first midterm of a new presidential term.

But earlier in the year when people are expecting sweeping republican gains, that now looks less likely. Basically, what happened is over the course of this year, we went from the classic referendum on the party in power in which people were voting out of their dissatisfaction with the way Democrats are handing the economy and inflation, but also for many of them, crime and the border, to one in which it is much more of a choice between the parties.

And those are not the only issues anymore. The issues of what Republicans would do an abortion, on guns, on democracy itself have become more important.

The needle still tilts towards Republicans because people are concerned about inflation, people are down on Biden's overall performance, but the magnitude of the opportunity for them clearly has reduced earlier this year as other issues, abortion, guns, and democracy have come into play.

CHURCH: And Ron, I mean, the midterms are usually a referendum of the party in power. That's not going to be the case this time. Why, do you think? What is the main reason for that?

BROWNSTEIN: The biggest single reason is that the Supreme Court ended the 50-year constitutional right to abortion. I think that was such a shock to the system. In the past, I mentioned this, only three -- only four occasions when the president's party has done pretty well.

Now, (INAUDIBLE) midterm election, they all had big exogenous shots, big shots from outside the system: the depression, the Cuban missile crisis, the Clinton impeachment in '98, 9/11 and the 2002 election.

The abortion decision is of comparable magnitude and it may not be enough to completely erase all of the advantages that Republicans had developed, particularly around voter dissatisfaction and inflation, but it certainly has changed the parameters and it has allowed these Democrats, particularly in statewide races for Senate and governor where there is more money and more focus, to shift the question voters are asking, what have Democrats done and am I okay with it to what would Republicans do if they had power.

That is what really, I think, above all has dwindled the number of Republican opportunities. CHURCH: CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein, always great to have you with us. Many thanks.

BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me.

CHURCH: The Supreme Court begins its new term Monday. And one historic change is the addition of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court. But the court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June will continue to have implications on abortion rights this term.

The justices will also hear arguments on major cases on the Voting Rights Act and affirmative action in college admissions, and will also consider cases on same-sex marriage issues and environmental laws.

Still to come, Hong Kon, hoping for a revival. The city's ultra-tough COVID restrictions are finally ending. Tourists are coming back and businesses are starting to see some signs of life. We will be back in just a moment.

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CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone. Well, after more than two and a half years, Hong Kong is lifting many of its COVID restrictions. The city had some of the strictest quarantine rules in the world. Now, its struggling tourism industry is showing signs of life. But whether Hong Kong can completely revitalize itself and bounce back from the pandemic is still in question.

CNN's Kristie Lu Stout has that report.

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KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Rain or shine, the players trained for the international Rugby Sevens tournament in Hong Kong. For more than 40 years, it spans from around the world, would come every year for the sport and the spectacle until the pandemic. Now, after a long hiatus, they are thrilled to play again.

RUSSELL WEBB, RUGBY PLAYER: It's been three years. Three years? Yeah, three years or so since the last one, from 17. Yeah, we are really

excited to tell about it to the community in general. Really excited. So good for Hong Kong.

LU STOUT (voice-over): Also coming to Hong Kong is the international pop sensation Black Pink in January. In November, a global banking summit. The travel industry is bustling. The expedia.com says searches for hotels in the city jumped to 50%.

LAVINIA RAJARAM, TRAVEL EXPERT, EXPEDIA GROUP: We can anticipate the business audience coming back to Hong Kong, as well as travelers that has always favored Hong Kong as a culinary destination. So, we can see a little bit of that trend coming back in the coming months.

LU STOUT (voice-over): With the easing of border rules, the city hopes to reclaim its sport as an international business hub and rebuilt its economy. But for many, like this market vendor, they don't have months to wait.

UNKNOWN (through translator): My most frequent customers used to be tourists. locals rarely shop here. It has been terrible, very terrible. There was no business at all. It has been our fruitless labor. Business has been static.

LU STOUT (voice-over): Tough COVID-19 measures have devastated businesses, including the iconic Jumbo Kingdom floating restaurant. Now, no more. Max shut his restaurant last year after nine years in operation.

MAXENCE TRAVERSE, RESTAURANT OWNER: The restaurants right now are closing down, filing bankruptcy or trying to sell because the summer was really, really hard.

LU STOUT (voice-over): He says it'll take more than simply ending the COVID rules to revive the city.

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TRAVERSE: We need to be providing, you know, excitement for Hong Kong because right now, we've lost so many things. That is what is happening in the convention center. There is no concert. (INAUDIBLE) big screen anymore.

LU STOUT (voice-over): Before the pandemic, it was with big scenes like this from the stands of the Rugby Sevens, famous for its legendary party energy. Today, rugby players practice in the rain ahead of the return of the big tournament and big hopes for the revival of the city.

Kristie Lu Stout, CNN, Hong Kong.

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CHURCH: Tennis star Novak Djokovic has now claimed his 89th career title. The Serbian star won the latest title, his third this year in Tel Aviv on Sunday. Djokovic missed the U.S. Open this year because he refused to get a COVID vaccine, and therefore was not eligible to play. This latest win means that Djokovic is the first man this season to win on all three surfaces: grass, clay and hard court.

It is the end of an era in Major League Baseball as St. Louis Cardinals superstar, Albert Pujols, played his final regular season home game. And he made it a day to remember. The 42-year-old first baseman hit his 702nd career home run. He is fourth all-time on the home run list behind Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth. Pujols has more than 2,200 runs batted in, tying him with Ruth for second all-time.

The Cardinals honored their legendary player along with veteran catcher Yadier Molina in an emotional ceremony before the game.

Thank you so much for spending part of your day with me. I'm Rosemary Church. "CNN Newsroom" continues with Max Foster, next.

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