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Biden Makes Abortion Rights Amid Looming Recession Fears; Biden Promises Abortion Law As Democrats Try To Rally Voters; Treasury To Assess How Extreme Weather Hikes Insurance Rates. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired October 18, 2022 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:00]

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: Top of a new hour now. Good to have you. I'm Victor Blackwell. Welcome to CNN NEWSROOM.

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR AND NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Erica Hill. Three weeks ago now until November's midterm elections and right now candidates are making their final pitch to voters in Georgia. Records are already being shattered when it comes to early voting. More than 131,000 people cast their ballot yesterday alone. Meantime, President Biden is betting big that abortion rights will drive voters to the polls promising today that he would do his best to codify Roe v. Wade into law if Democrats were able to keep control of Congress.

BLACKWELL: Now, last night, heated debates across the country, the economy, crime, voting rights, some of the top issues. Now, remember here the Senate is split 50-50, so every competitive race is crucial. CNN Senior Political Correspondent Abby Phillip joins us now. Abby, let's start with the Senate and the big picture here.

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Victor and Erica, look, this is going to be a very close midterm cycle. And as you just mentioned, every single race counts. Here's why. Take a look at where the balance of power stands here in the Senate in terms of these are the races that are competitive in this cycle.

Look over here, just three seats. Three seats are rated as tossups. That means the 12 that are favored Democrats are either likely to be in the Democratic column or they lean Democratic and 20 are leaning toward the Republican column, likely or solidly Republican. And that is why you're seeing such focus on just a few of these races. Let's just talk about some of them.

These are the three that CNN rates as - are tossups in the Senate. You have the Georgia Senate race. We've been talking a lot about that race, the incumbent senator Raphael Warnock going up against Herschel Walker who's been in the headlines for some scandals of late. Then, down in Pennsylvania, the lieutenant governor of that state is going up against a Trump endorsed celebrity doctor, Mehmet Oz.

This is a state where the two candidates are trying to take a tossup. This is an open seat, neither are incumbents. But take a look at Nevada. Nevada is a place where Democrats are defending yet another Senate seat. Catherine Cortez Masto in a tough fight for reelection up against Republican Adam Laxalt.

So that is where you're seeing some of the real fights in the Senate shaping up. The problem also, I think, for Democrats, in particular, in the Senate is that they are trying to gain an edge in more seats than Republicans are. They have five states where they're hoping to flip, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio.

But in several of these, they're going up against Republican incumbents in Florida and also in Wisconsin. So that's what makes it so difficult. Republicans are hoping to flip a couple of democratically-held seats in Arizona and in New Hampshire, but they - their battleground here is far fewer seats, so you can see why this is a little bit of a tough situation for Democrats, but it's a coin flip at this point. Both parties, I think, agree on that.

HILL: When it comes to the House, we've looked a little bit more of the Senate, but when it comes to the House, there's a real focus here, especially on suburban voters in key districts that Republicans lost during Donald Trump's presidency. Give us a better sense of what those are.

PHILLIP: Yes. I mean, look, these are the places where President Biden won those seats, but they are key battlegrounds. They're battlegrounds for a lot of different reasons. One of them being that you've got some demographic changes. You have redistricting. But you also have this overarching issue of the economy.

And just like in the United States Senate, the battleground here in the House is so incredibly narrow, 19 seats are rated by CNN as tossups. Democrats are defending are favored in 205 seats, Republicans in 211 seats. And if you look at the balance of power in the House, Democrats only have an eight seat margin. It is not going to take very much for Republicans to gain an advantage in this chamber.

One of the problems here for Democrats in a midterm cycle like this, Erica and Victor, is that they are the incumbent. And typically when incumbent presidents are at President Biden's favorability level, the party in power, the party that holds power in the house loses, but anywhere between two dozen seats and upwards of 60 seats.

So that's why the house is such a coin flip, but in those battleground districts that you just mentioned, it's all going to be about how those voters view the job that Democrats have been doing while they've been in power and the economy is really top of mind when it comes to that issue.

BLACKWELL: All right. Abby Phillip, always good to have you. Thank you, Abby. Today, President Biden promised to make Roe v. Wade the law of the land if Democrats remain in power in November.

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HILL: He said he would send Congress a bill to codify Roe and guarantee a federal right to abortion. The hope here is that that promise will galvanize voters enough to get them to the polls and keep Democrats control of the House and the Senate. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Here's the promise I make to you and the American people, the first bill that I will send to the Congress will be to codify Roe v. Wade and together we will restore the right to choose for every woman in every state in America, so vote. You got to get out to vote. We could do this if we vote.

HILL: CNN's MJ Lee is live at the White House for us. So MJ, the President really focusing here on abortion rights, hoping that that will drive voters to the polls. The polling isn't really in line with that.

MJ LEE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, this shouldn't be a surprise that we are seeing the President give this kind of speech. As you know very well, the White House and Democrats in Washington have really seized on the issue of abortion and reproductive rights ever since the Supreme Court ruled - overruled Roe v. Wade earlier this year. And it is an issue that White House officials have hoped would help to galvanize and mobilize the base and Democratic supporters.

Now, we did hear the President make this very specific promise in his speech earlier today, where he basically said codifying Roe v. Wade is going to be his first legislative priority if Democrats do well in the midterms. Now, I have to emphasize that is really important if here, because so many things need to actually go the Democrats way for this to be realistic.

They need to keep the House. They need to expand their majority in the Senate, they would need to change the filibuster rules and then make sure that a majority in the Senate then supports and votes for codifying Roe v. Wade. So this is a tough thing that he is promising that he wants to do.

But in that way, it is an important political message that we are seeing from him, even if, of course White House officials here and he himself knows that this is a very difficult thing for him to execute on. The other reality that the White House is, of course, very cognizant of is what you pointed out that polls show that the top issue for the majority of voters remains the economy.

Yes, plenty of people are revved up about the issue of abortion and reproductive rights, but it is for a few number of people really that abortion is the number one issue and this is why we are reporting earlier that the president is expected to announce another 14 million barrels of oil released from the strategic reserve. This is as they have been hoping that gas prices would continue to fall.

That is not happening consistently anymore and they're really hoping to make the case, an economic case and really talk about both the abortion issue but also keep the economic issue top of mind as well.

BLACKWELL: MJ Lee for us at the White House, thank you MJ.

HILL: Tonight in Florida, it will be a showdown between Republican senator, Marco Rubio and his Democratic challenger Congresswoman Val Demings.

BLACKWELL: Now this will be the only time that two candidates running for that Senate seat will debate ahead of the midterms. CNN's Steve Contorno joins us now. Steve, what should we expect?

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN REPORTER: Victor, this race has really been flying under the radar compared to a lot of those other Senate midterm contests that Abby was mentioning earlier, but it features two big names in Florida politics. Republicans are hoping to send Marco Rubio back to the Senate for another six-year term. Meanwhile, you have Democrats nominating Val Demings, a former House impeachment manager, who actually was on Joe Biden shortlist to be vice president in 2020.

Now, going into this race, Rubio has a slight but solid lead and Republicans here are hopeful that this is a sign that the state is no longer that perennial battleground and is in fact turning into a more solidly red states. Actually, the last time that Rubio was on the ballot, Democrats had more registered voters than Republicans that has now flipped and there are about 300,000 more Republicans in the state than Democrats now.

So that is the reality that Val Demings is walking into tonight. And she actually I think might be - this might be her last best chance to shift those political wins with just three weeks to go until Election Day. So what is she going to focus on tonight? Well, she has spent a lot of time on the issue of abortion.

Sen. Rubio is one of the few senators who actually signed on to, as a co-sponsor to Lindsey Graham's national 15-week abortion ban with no exemptions for rape or incest. So I think you're going to hear a lot of discussion about that tonight. I think Demings also wants to contrast her background against Rubio's. She likes to say she is the daughter of a maid and a janitor. She is a black woman who rose through the police ranks in - to become a chief in Orlando against Rubio who has spent most of his time in elected office.

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And Victor, I think the issue of policing in general is going to be one to watch tonight, because Republicans have really tried to make crime a central issue. How does that work against Demings who is herself a former police officer?

HILL: We will be watching for that tonight and likely some fireworks too. Steve Contorno, thanks.

January 6 taking center stage in last night's fiery debate in Utah between Republican Senator Mike Lee and the man who wants his job, independent Evan McMullin.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EVAN MCMULLIN, (I) UTAH SENATE CANDIDATE: Sen. Lee, it is a betrayal of the American republic. You were there to stand up for our Constitution, but when the barbarians were at the gate, you were happy to let them in. SEN. MIKE LEE (R-UT): There is absolutely nothing to the idea that I

would have ever supported, ever did support the fake elector's plot. Yes, there were people who behaved very badly on that day, I was not one of them. I was one of the people trying to dismantle this situation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Like insurrectionists were, of course, calling for then Vice President Mike Pence to be hung on January 6th.

Olivia Troye served as an adviser to Pence during the Trump administration and joins us now. Olivia, nice to see you this afternoon. When we look at what we were hearing and listen to what we're hearing in that debate there, January 6th the ongoing threat to democracy figuring prominently, and we know that democracy is important to voters. As most recent poll from The New York Times - New York Times-Siena poll found 71 percent of likely voters say they believe American democracy is under threat. But what is fascinating is that most of them are not voting on that point. They are voting on the economy. What does that tell you about the future of this country?

OLIVIA TROYE, FORMER ADVISER TO VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE: Look, I think - well, look, first I think Evan McMullin was correct in pointing out what Sen. Mike Lee had done. I read the text messages to Mark Meadows at the time. He was certainly complicit in this really dark time of the country and that legacy of those actions still lives on today and we're seeing it with people running across the country on election denying platforms, which are fundamentally dangerous to our democracy.

So now we're seeing voters. I mean, they're looking at inflation, they are looking at kitchen table issues that are affecting them locally. What I think is concerning here is should people like those election deniers win, that really changes really impactfully the game when it comes to our elections. And what this means going forward, because when people are voting, they may not be represented in the votes that they actually cast, if these people have the power to overturn elections in the future.

Are there some things that you are watching for - specifically, both on Election Day and in the days that follow perhaps as absentee ballots are counted? We know - not everybody knows everything as soon as the polls closed, that's just a reality. What is on your radar?

TROYE: Well, I'll certainly be watching for what people say in their statements in the immediate aftermath of the midterm elections. I'll also be watching for quite candidly threats against the poll workers, against election workers who should be thanked for this thankless job that they do and we should be grateful for the fact that they are showing up getting the fact that they - a lot of them have been leaving their roles because they've been under duress in previous elections.

And then I'll be looking at the types of people that get elected and what that means for 2024, because that's really kind of an indicator of the direction that this country is heading in and what that means for a potential person that's going to be sitting in the Oval Office in terms of who that leader might be.

HILL: To that point, another what I found, frankly, chilling a question in that poll asked specifically about supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 37 percent of independent voters, even 12 percent, or a little over of Democrats said that. Candidates may refuse, as you pointed out, to accept the results in 2022.

We heard Kari Lake over the weekend, Dana Bash asked her repeatedly whether she would accept the results of the election if she lost. She dodged the question. She never answered it.

TROYE: That's exactly it and actually that's a perfect example of Kari Lake. So I watched that interview in real time when it was happening and I was watching her, and she certainly sidestepped around it. And so I have no doubt there's people out there right now that are already starting to question the elections and are sowing doubt. That is straight out of the Donald Trump playbook in terms of what he did in the months leading up to the election and we saw what that leads to in terms of potential violence, just like we saw the violence on January 6.

And so, I think that - I saw that in the polling and it is incredibly concerning, because that means that what all of these people did that were a part of this in terms of talking about the stolen election of 2020 and they're continuing on to carry this forward had incredible impact on the voters.

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And it undermined voter confidence in our elections but really the bottom line for all of that - and I know we've talked about this before is that that is how democracy dies, because people are starting to doubt our fundamental freedom of voting in our elections process.

HILL: Yes. And it is a legitimate fear, in many ways. Olivia Troye, thanks for your time this afternoon.

So here's another number for you, 100 percent, that is the likelihood now of a recession within the next year according to a Bloomberg projection. What could that actually mean for you? How bad could it be? That's next.

BLACKWELL: And the murder investigation in Oklahoma after the bodies of four men were found dismembered in a river. The police now say these men were planning to commit a crime when they set out on a bike ride. We've got details for you.

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HILL: New economic predictions from two financial giants, Fitch Ratings now said starting next spring the U.S. economy will sink into a 1990-style mild recession.

BLACKWELL: And Bloomberg just projected the probability of a recession within the next year 100 percent. CNN's Matt Egan is with us now. So remind us of what a '90-style recession is, we've been saying it all day without giving people the details and is it really as bad as it sounds?

MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: Well, Erica and Victor, essentially a '90- style recession would be a mild recession. I think a lot of times, when we hear the word recession, we have these flashbacks to the economic meltdown of 2008. But thankfully, that is not what Fitch is projecting here. They see something more tame. They see a mild recession where the unemployment rate goes up, but it doesn't skyrocket.

Fitch sees the unemployment rate peaking at 5.4 percent in 2024, that's about two percentage points higher than current levels. As you can see on your screen, that would not be nearly as bad as the unemployment rate spikes that we saw during past recessions, most notably in 2020, when the unemployment rate went up by 11 percentage points.

Now, the main problem here, of course, is that inflation is very high, that is crushing families and businesses and all of our retirement accounts. And it's forcing the Fed to slam the brakes on the economy. And eventually if they lob enough of these monster size, interest rate hikes at the economy, they're going to succeed in slowing it down.

But Fitch sees some reasons for cautious optimism, why maybe this could be a more mild downturn. And one, it's because the jobs market is entering this period in a very strong point. I mean, unemployment is historically low, consumer finances are relatively sturdy. The housing market is slowing down, but it's not imploding. And banks are a lot stronger than they were during the 2008 crisis.

Yet we are still hearing these recession warnings on Bloomberg economics has that model that you just mentioned, projecting a 100 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months. I'm a bit surprised by that level of certainty. I mean, there's so many moving pieces right now between inflation and the fed, the war in Ukraine, COVID lockdowns in China, it's hard to see how anyone can be a hundred percent certain about anything right now.

BLACKWELL: Yes.

HILL: Yes.

BLACKWELL: Certainly.

HILL: It does feel like the only certainty of a hundred percent is the uncertainty but I'm not a finance person. Matt, appreciate that.

BLACKWELL: Thank you, Matt.

HILL: The Mississippi River is measuring at its lowest depth ever recorded in Memphis, Tennessee, negative 10.75 feet. BLACKWELL: Now, the drought is having wider ranging impacts down to

Louisiana where the Army Corps of Engineers is having to build now a levee to protect the state's drinking water supply. CNN's Chief Climate Correspondent Bill Weir joins us now. I mean, this sounds like it's drastic.

BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: It's really drastic and there's no rain (ph) in the forecast through the weekend, so there's no telling when they're going to get some relief there. But it has such a trickledown effect. When you consider that about half of the grain in this country is moved by barge down the Mississippi River.

A third of the heating coal, when things get colder, moves up that way and this drought now is exposing shipwrecks from the 19th century. Its geologic foundations, people are not taking walks on that normally would - should be underwater. So who knows where this goes.

And as you said, as well, they have to worry about saltwater intrusion because there's not enough force of freshwater coming down to Mississippi that the sea water from the Gulf gets in there and (inaudible) drinking water. It has so many different knock off effects.

HILL: And I was just think - I mean, the ripple effects, no pun intended ...

WEIR: Right.

HILL: ... but the ripple effects of that salt water pushing into where it should be freshwater. I was also fascinated, this morning we learned the Treasury Department says that they now want to take a really close look, a hard look at climate-related disasters and how that is driving up insurance rates around the country, talked a lot about this, right, in the wake of Ian and even leading up to it in Florida.

WEIR: Right.

HILL: What do they think that might change? What could the outcome be?

WEIR: It's a great question. I mean, the National Flood Insurance Program is such a mess because as these - we keep rebuilding in the same spots and - you don't have to be a true climatologist to understand the trend lines where it's getting more expensive. We're getting numbers on Ian now that aren't as bad as we had feared, initially, that the citizens is the insurer of last resort, they expected 20,000, 25,000 claims, set about a hundred thousand claims. It's great news because if there were too many claims, a lot of those smaller insurance companies go out of business and if your reinsurance company takes over, you get pennies on the dollar, nothing happens for months. It's miserable.

And so - but again, they're going to have to shore up that state funded insurance company of last resort and then comes the moral question of how often do - are you going to spread that risk around to people or is it - Florida could be the kind of place where if you want to live down in paradise you take all the risk.

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And, of course, that will make a wealth gap even more extreme as only the rich folks who can go there.

HILL: Yes, it's so true.

WEIR: And then - so then you - and that's one thing, but then who waits tables in your restaurants?

BLACKWELL: Yes.

WEIR: Who's your landscaper? Where does he live?

BLACKWELL: Who teaches the kids?

HILL: I was just going to say, who is your teacher.

WEIR: Who teaches the kids, who is your cop.

HILL: Who is your cop ...

BLACKWELL: Yes.

WEIR: Yes.

HILL: Who's working at the post office.

WEIR: Right.

HILL: Who's working at the bank, I mean, all of these things.

WEIR: And, of course, and that's all tied to property values, right?

BLACKWELL: Mm-hm.

WEIR: Property values go down and that tax base goes down. So yes, we're going to have big conversations in coming years about this.

HILL: Yes. Well, I mean, I guess, maybe the upside is that there are actually looking at it because there's a recognition that the two are related and something has to be - something's got to be figured out.

WEIR: Right.

HILL: Bill Weir, nice to see you.

BLACKWELL: Thank you, Bill.

HILL: Thank you.

WEIR: You bet.

BLACKWELL: Ukraine's president says 30 percent of his country's power stations have been destroyed in just one week and defense officials there estimate Russia is critically low on missiles, so we'll tell you what that means for Russia's war strategy.

HILL: Plus, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has a new warning about Beijing's moves to 'reunify' China and Taiwan.

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