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Chinese Protestors Challenge Beijing & Zero-COVID Policy; Germany-Spain Marquee Match Ends in 1-1 Draw; Zelenskyy: $150M Collected for Grain from Ukraine Initiative; Ruling Party Faces Fallout after Major Midterm Losses; Economic and Humanitarian Emergencies Plague Afghanistan; Death Toll from Ischia Slide at Seven, Including Newborn; New Storm System Expected in Mediterranean Monday. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired November 28, 2022 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome. Coming to you live from Studio Seven at the CNN Center in Atlanta, I'm Michael Holmes. Appreciate your company.

[00:00:32]

Coming up here on CNN NEWSROOM, defiance on public display. In cities across China, residents expressing their anger over the zero-COVID policy. Some even calling for leadership change.

Shocker at the World Cup. Morocco defeating the second-ranked team in the world. We'll have the latest -- latest highlights from Qatar.

And Afghanistan's immense challenges, from the treatment of women and girls to the economy. We'll look at life under the Taliban.

ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN Center, this is CNN NEWSROOM with Michael Holmes.

HOLMES: And we begin with incredible new images coming out of China. Protesters gathering across the country in defiance of Beijing's unrelenting COVID-19 measures, as China posts another record high number of COVID infections on Monday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(SHOUTING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, this was Beijing on Sunday, as large crowds gathered to denounce zero-COVID restrictions and call for political freedoms. But the government was quick to deploy police to control the growing crowds, as you can see.

Sunday night took a violent turn in Shanghai, with police holding back the crowd as they dragged people away and loaded them in a van.

Anger against the government spread across the country after a deadly fire killed ten people in Xinjiang province on Thursday. Some believe zero-COVID measures were the reason firefighters arrived too late to save the victims.

Now, protesters have taken to holding up sheets of blank white paper in their rallies. It's been used as a symbol against censorship and unites those seeking relief from Beijing's strict COVID policies.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I think in a just society, no one should be criminalized for their speech. There should not be one voice in our society. We need a variety of voices. We hope this piece of white paper can bring about positive effects, and let others know that what we are going through is wrong. We should speak for ourselves. I hope in the future, I will no longer be holding a white piece of paper. But what I really want to express, so that more and more people know directly.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I think we just need to identify the close contacts or semi-close contacts, those people who might be infected. This is just enough. We don't need this huge screening of the whole compound. It's not necessary to be so meticulous.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, for more, let's bring in CNN's Beijing bureau chief, Steven Jiang. Steven, how unusual are protests like this? How outspoken they are? And also, what's the momentum at the moment?

STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: Yes, Michael, as you know, it's extremely rare to see widespread protests across the nation like this. Something we really haven't seen for decades.

But as you mentioned, it's also extraordinary to hear some of the demands from the protesters that actually started in Shanghai on Saturday night, as you mentioned. It's really extraordinary to hear a protester there chant slogans directly targeting the ruling Communist Party and its top leader, Xi Jinping.

Because up to that point, even the most vehement opponents of the zero-COVID policy in this country have been really dancing around the issue, blaming incompetent or overzealous local officials instead of pointing a finger at the ultimate decision-maker in this one-party system.

But those Shanghai protesters really challenging the legitimacy of the party and its strongman leader. And that may explain some of the more harsher tactics you have seen police there deploy in terms of their treatment of the -- of the protesters.

Because there's a lot of fear, obviously, on the part of the government that this kind of message would inspire others across the country.

But that's exactly what has happened since we have seen protesters in other cities, in Chengdu, but also here in Beijing, shouting slogans that really -- targeting some fundamental aspects of the system. They, of course, say things like, No to COVID testing, yes to

freedoms. But they also have said things like, No to dictatorship, yes to votes. And no to being a slave, yes to being a citizen.

So it is very noticeable that many of these protesters over the weekend have been young people, including many students on campuses across the country. It's probably not surprising, because many of those students really have lived their entire college life in the past three years under some forms of lockdowns.

[00:05:05]

And also, of course, they are the group hit hardest by this economic slowdown brought by this zero-COVID policy. Remember, the official figures in the December set the group age between 16 and 24. Their unemployment rate hitting a record-breaking 20 percent.

So you really have this group feeling a sense of hopelessness and desperation. So when they have so little and almost nothing to lose, of course, people tend to take to the streets and make their voices heard. That's exactly what has happened.

That's also why this -- this is very -- this is disconcerting to the authorities, Michael. We have already seen signs of them trying to disperse the students by ending the semester early. Several universities here in Beijing are already setting out notices to their students that transportation arrangements has been made to ship them to train stations and airports, Michael.

HOLMES: And to that point, in a way, I mean, how many people in China will be aware of these protests? I mean, will censors be able to take down all of the social media posts in time? Or is word going to spread more broadly?

JIANG: Yes, the authorities and the state media here are very much silent on this whole thing, as if nothing happened during the past weekend.

But despite having the world's most extensive and sophisticated censorship system, I think word has spread. Because the demands -- a lot of demands of the protesters are really striking a chord with most people around this nation.

So you've seen a lot of people really key posting and re-posting images and videos, despite the very quick removal of these posts. And also, of course, people discussing this in very coded language, trying to evade censorship.

So along the way, the irony here is this policy has become the great equalizer for most people in this nation, even though they may have different political aspirations.

But they are now united in their sheer grievances against the authorities because of the harsh zero-COVID policy, and obviously, one of the most immediate goals of the protesters is also to end all the lockdowns and incessant mass testing. I think that's something very much shared by the majority of the population here, Michael.

HOLMES: All right. Steven Jiang on the spot for us there in Beijing. Thanks so much.

Yasheng Huang is a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management. He joins me now to talk about this.

It's extraordinary. You've got people holding blank pieces of paper to protest censorship. Chants for Xi Jinping to step down, the Communist Party to give up power. Some of these protests in broad daylight, unmasked, unafraid. How extraordinary have these protests been?

YASHENG HUANG, PROFESSOR, MIT'S SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT: It is extremely extraordinary. Since 1989, we have not seen anything on this scale, across many cities, and so many people coming out. And, to be so open about their opposition to the Communist Party, and to Xi Jinping. This is practically unheard of in China.

But I want to emphasize that some are shouting slogans against the party, against Jinping, most of the demonstrators are demonstrating about a particular grievance they have, which is the zero-COVID lockdown that is preventing them from conducting a normal life. Most of the demonstrators are demonstrating off that.

HOLMES: Is the Chinese leadership likely to listen to those protests or no?

HUANG: Well, they -- they -- they have their situation.

On the one hand, the scale of the demonstrations and the fact that the demonstrations are happening in so many cities really strains their capacity to deal with so many people simultaneously.

They were very, very good at dealing with isolated, segmented demonstrations, but to deal with this level of demonstration, it is unprecedented.

On the other hand, if they made success -- concessions, it would mean a tremendous loss of face. To make concessions on the schedule -- and the pandemic lockdown on the schedule of the demonstrators rather than the schedule of the government, that is a tremendous loss of credibility. And that means that there are many other things they cannot -- they cannot enforce.

HOLMES: Yes, and that's a really important point. I mean, President Xi has really gone all in on zero-COVID. How has that, perhaps, potentially, hurt him politically? As you say, quite rightly, would changing his mind be something he just could not contemplate? Looking like he's giving in to protesters, that he's been wrong on this?

[00:10:05]

HUANG: Well, he's in a tough bind. The -- the fact is that the zero- COVID policies are simply not sustainable: on economic grounds, on social grounds. And yet, he has persisted. Rather than changing the policy as the

situation on the ground has changed. And he has staked his entire reputation on the success of that policy. And this is where he has now.

If he is moving away from that policy, that will be a huge setback to his credibility. If he persists, the politics is getting really difficult. The economics is getting difficult. The psychology of the common people is getting very difficult. So this is just an unbelievable situation that he is in.

HOLMES: So -- so if he's painted himself into a zero-COVID corner, if you like, how then might he deal with these protests if they continue at this level?

HUANG: Well, one thing you can do is to ease the controls quietly. He may not announce that the policy has ended, but he can relax the enforcement of the policy, on the one hand.

And on the other hand, the government can go after what they believe to be their ringleaders. Arrest the people who are the leaders of the demonstrations. And that way, you kind of preserve your credibility while also easing anxiety and the -- and the anger on the part of the Chinese citizens.

HOLMES: Terrific to get your analysis at a very delicate time in China. Profess Yasheng Huang, thank you so much for being with us.

HUANG: Thank you.

HOLMES: Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top health official in charge of the U.S. response to the COVID pandemic, says China's restrictive COVID and vaccination policy is puzzling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: It seems that in China, it was just a very, very strict, extraordinary lockdown. You lock people in the house. But without any seemingly ending to it.

If the endgame was to let's get everybody vaccinated, including and particularly the vulnerable, then you could see how a temporary lockdown like that -- but they went into a prolonged lockdown without any seeming purpose or endgame to it, which is -- really doesn't make public health sense.

CHUCK TODD, HOST, NBC'S "MEET THE PRESS": You understand their vaccination strategy?

FAUCI: You know, in many respects, Chuck, it baffles me. I mean, they can --

TODD: They refuse outside vaccines, right? Only -- they only use their own. FAUCI: Yes. Which, clearly, with all due respect, was not particularly

effective at all, compared to any of the number of the vaccines that were available.

But also, interestingly, they did not, for reasons that I don't fully appreciate, protect the elderly by making sure the elderly got vaccinated. So, if you look at the prevalence of vaccinations among the elderly, that it was almost counterproductive to people you really needed to protect, who are not getting protected.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Dr. Fauci will be stepping down from his positions as director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious diseases, and the chief medical adviser to the U.S. president, in December.

It was another action-and-drama-packed day in Qatar, with four more group-stage matches in the books at the World Cup.

There was the matchup of two football powerhouses, a few more upsets in what has been an unpredictable tournament so far. Don Riddell with our highlights.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DON RIDDELL, CNN WORLD SPORT: Spain and Germany have played out the first heavyweight clash of this World Cup tournament, and it was highly entertaining at Al Bayt Stadium here in Qatar.

La Roca (ph) dominated possession and could have taken the first half lead when Dani Olmo released a ferocious shock which was tipped onto the frame of the goal by Manuel Neuer.

After the break, Spain did get ahead, thanks to the deftest of touches from substitute Alvaro Morata, Germany knew that they couldn't go out tonight, but they couldn't really afford to lose the game either.

And their substitute, Niclas Fullkrug savaged the point with a brilliant finish, seven minutes from time.

Elsewhere in Group E, Costa Rica recovered from their humiliating defeat by Spain early on, beating Japan one-nil. They did so with their first shot on target in the tournament, and it was a beauty from Keysher Fuller.

It means that Spain topped the group, a point clear of both Japan and Costa Rica. Germany's point means that if they beat Costa Rica on Thursday, and Spain aren't surprised by Japan, then the two European giants will go through.

[00:15:14]

This World Cup has produced some shock results, and we caught another in Group F, when Morocco stunned the second-ranked team, Belgium. Abdelhamid Sabiri caught out the experienced goalie, Thibault Courtois, with a tricky free kick before the man of the match, Hakim Ziyech, who came out of retirement for this World Cup, made the decisive goal for Zakaria Aboukhlal in injury time.

Elsewhere in the group, Canada surprised the 2018 finalist, Croatia, with a second-minute goal, from Alphonso Davies. That's their first ever World Cup goal.

But their joy didn't last long. Croatia drew level through Andrej Kramaric, the first of his two goals, and they were ahead at the break, thanks to Marko Livaja.

A 4-1 win for Croatia means that Canada are the second team to be eliminated from the tournament. Belgium, though, will probably have to beat Croatia on Thursday if they want to stay in.

Morocco, though, are well-placed to advance. By Monday night, every team of played two games, and we'll have a much better sense of how Brazil's bid for a sixth world title is looking. They play Switzerland.

Back to you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Our thanks to Don Riddell there.

Now, the U.S. State Department says it was not involved in U.S. Soccer's decision to alter the Iranian flag on its social media accounts. The team posted images of the flag without its emblem as a sign of solidarity with protesters in their country.

U.S. Soccer told CNN the change was a, quote, "one-time graphic" and that the Iranian flag remained intact on the team's main website.

Iranian state media says the U.S. Men's team should be kicked out of the World Cup for posting the image. The United States and Iran will play each other in the final group stage match on Tuesday, which will be interesting.

We'll have more on all the World Cup action coming up in WORLD SPORT in about 30 minutes. Meanwhile, still to come on this program, Russian forces ramping up their attacks in Ukraine's South and East, while the Ukrainian government still works to repair the country's battered energy system. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Ukraine reporting progress in its work to get the country's energy system up and running again after weeks of Russian attacks targeting the country's infrastructure.

Ukraine's prime minister says the energy system has now been stabilized at 80 percent of its normal capacity, with more than 1,000 experts working every day to repair the network.

Since the start of the war in February, Russian attacks have damaged about 32,000 civilian targets and more than 700 critical infrastructure facilities. That's according to Ukraine's first deputy interior minister, who says only 3 percent of recorded attacks have been on military facilities.

[00:20:08]

And Ukraine says more attacks on civilian targets can be expected.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We understand that the terrorists are planning new strikes. We know this for a fact. And as long as they have missiles, they unfortunately will not calm down.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And Mr. Zelenskyy says more than 20 countries have shown their support for the Grain from Ukraine initiative, which he says collected about $150 million during the summit over the weekend.

CNN's Sam Kiley with the details from Zaporizhzhia.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SAM KILEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There's no accident. Indeed, the Ukrainian government is explicit in drawing a parallel between their weekend gathering --

KILEY (voice-over): -- an international gathering remotely and in person known as Grain from Ukraine, or Grain for Ukraine.

And that is because it also marked, on Saturday, the 90th anniversary of the Holodomor. This is the systematic starvation of many millions of Ukrainians under Stalin's Soviet Union. When the Ukrainian language, its history, music, and culture was attempted to be obliterated in, by any definition, what should be described as a genocide against Ukraine committed by the Soviet Union under Stalin.

Now, from the Ukrainian perspective, many of Stalin's techniques are now being repeated in this country, with the forced deportation of Ukrainians from areas captured in Ukraine by Russia into Russian territory, in violation of international law; and with the manipulation, the Ukrainians say, of the international grain markets, as a consequence of the war here.

The Ukrainians saying their product of grain this year is down by about 44 percent, 30 percent reduction in exports since the mid- summer. And that doesn't account for the total blockage on exports earlier in the year, which have driven up grain prices, particularly in droughts, and famine-struck East and Central Africa.

Now, the $150 million deal being agreed to or donations being agreed to by the international community, and efforts made by Ukraine to try and get its grain out and onto the international market, an act of defiance.

And the international community recognizing that with statements coming from the German chancellor saying that food could never and should never be used as a weapon of war.

But meanwhile, we're seeing continued attacks on the ground here in the South of the country. Kherson (ph) city hit and at least 16 other smaller villages along the river and what is clearly an escalating campaign from Russia to try to dominate that part of the battle space and attack civilian targets, while elsewhere in the East, in particular, along the Eastern front, there has been very, very intense fighting with the Ukrainians admitting that, in small areas, they've lost a little bit of ground.

But this has been a back-and-forth bloody battle since, effectively, day one of this war. It's definitely, according to Ukrainians, an area where the Russians are seeking to concentrate their forces.

Sam Kiley, CNN, in Zaporizhzhia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: In Russia, a feminist anti-war resistance movement, along with mothers of Russian soldiers, have launched a petition demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

It was introduced on Sunday, the same day Russia celebrated Mother's Day, and it quickly gained 1,400 signatures. The petition says the group is united by one desire: to live in peace and not be afraid for their children's future.

Turning now to Iran, where the niece of the country's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been arrested. Her brother says Farideh Moradkhani was detained last week after she called on countries to cut ties with Tehran. Her brother, Mahmoud, shared this video of his sister condemning the ruling theocracy led by their uncle.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FARIDEH MORADKHANI, NIECE OF AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI (through translator): Oh, free people, be with us and support us so that your government stops supporting this murderous and child-killing regime. This regime is not even loyal to any of its own religious principles, and does not know any laws or rules except force and maintaining power in any way possible.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Anti-government protests have rocked Iran for more than two months following the death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest by Iran's so-called Morality Police.

A U.N. report from earlier this month said the crackdown on protesters has killed more than 300 people.

In Taiwan, we are gauging reaction and fallout to the ruling party's heavy losses in Saturday's midterm elections. President Tsai Ing-wen's Democratic Progressive Party suffered what looks to be its worst election result ever. And the rival, Kuomintang, looks set to take over key local offices.

[00:25:03]

CNN's Kristie Lu Stout joins me now from Hong Kong to talk more. So -- so what does what was a crushing election result mean for Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen?

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT/ANCHOR: Well, this was a devastating election result for Tsai, as well as her party. And after this historic local election loss, Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, has resigned as the chief of the ruling party, the DPP, or the Democratic Progressive Party.

But she will continue to serve as the president of Taiwan until the end of her term in early 2024. Now, this was the party's worst showing in its history. The DPP one only five municipalities. It's one of fewer from the previous local elections in Taiwan.

In comparison, its main rival, the Kuomintang, or KMT, won 13 municipalities, including the capital of Taipei.

And we did hear from Tsai Ing-wen earlier. She spoke at party headquarters, acknowledging this historic loss for her party. Let's bring it up for you.

She said this, quote, "The results failed our expectations. We humbly accept the results and accept the Taiwanese people's decision," unquote.

Now, we should emphasize that these were local elections. The officials who were elected here do not have a direct say in China policy.

But Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, as the head of the DPP, framed the local elections as an opportunity to show defiance and to stand up to an increasingly muscular Beijing. And that strategy just didn't work out for her.

We do have this bit of analysis from a political scientist of Australia National University. His name is Wen-Ti Sung, who points out that the DPP's crushing defeat is not about China, but about DPP, and DPP's own failure to set a positive agenda and maintain party unity.

He adds, this was a self-inflicted wound. After the DPP's poor performance over the weekend, all lies now -- and the focus is now shifting to 2024. That's when the parliamentary elections. That's when the presidential elections will take place.

And we do know that Taiwan will not be able to run again as she continues to serve her second and final term as president of Taiwan.

Back to you, Michael.

HOLMES: All right. Great to have you there, updating us. Kristie Lu Stout in Hong Kong. Appreciate it.

The streets of London rang out on Sunday with calls for freedom for Afghan women. After the break, we'll take a look into the ongoing humanitarian and economic crises in the country. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Welcome back. I want to take a closer look now at the economic and humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, plural, as well as the growing demands for freedom for Afghan women.

[00:30:08]

On Sunday, those calls rang out across London.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let Afghan girls learn.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let Afghan girls learn. We want justice!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let Afghan girls learn. We want justice!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let Afghan girls learn. We want justice!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, that march was held in support of Afghan women who have been pushed from the public sphere ever since the Taliban retook control.

Now last week, a group of U.N. experts said their treatment of Afghan women may amount to crimes against humanity.

At Sunday's rally, Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai called on the international community to act.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MALALA YOUSAFZAI, ACTIVIST & NOBEL LAUREATE: To global leaders, you must not stand silent. You must do more. You must listen to the voices of Afghan girls and women. And right (ph) along with, as you determine their country's future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, despite pledging, promising their education would be open to all, the Taliban, of course, have barred Afghan girls from secondary school.

Now on top of that, the Red Cross/Red Crescent says some 70 percent of households cannot meet their basic needs. Others have even higher estimates.

And some 3 million children are at risk of malnutrition and other related diseases. Michael Kugelman is the director of the South Asia Institute at the

Wilson Center. He joins me now. And good to see you again. So, the reports continue. I think the crazy thing is Afghans selling their organs, even their children, to feed their families, in reports this past week. Some are sedating their children, because they're hungry and can't sleep. How bad is the humanitarian situation?

MICHAEL KUGELMAN, DIRECTOR, SOUTH ASIA INSTITUTE AT THE WILSON CENTER: It's really bad. I mean, we're talking about some of the most severe forms of privation that the human condition can experience. And when you're taking the types of desperate measures that you just laid out before, then you know you're facing an incredibly dire situation.

The situation is worse this year than it was last year, worse this winter than last winter. Now, more than 90 percent of Afghans are going hungry now, according to multiple estimates. That's 36 million people.

And yet, you know, Michael, this didn't come out of nowhere. The warning signs have been there for months. Much earlier this year, you had eight officials warning that millions were marching towards starvation.

So we knew this was coming. The humanitarian crisis has been a slow- motion train wreck. The world knew. The Taliban knew, and yet, it hasn't been prevented, and here we are today.

HOLMES: Yes. Yes. There's so much bad news out of Afghanistan. I also wanted to ask you, on top of the humanitarian crisis, the Taliban has begun publicly flogging men and women accused of various crimes.

Taliban leadership promised the spread -- they've promised the spread of Sharia law. If this is happening just over a year after taking over, what does the future look like for Afghan society? Especially in light of the promises the Taliban made.

KUGELMAN: Well, and certainly, the trend lines are not good. Given how things are going now, because we're seeing these increased crackdowns on society, particularly on women. I think we all have to be worried about how much worse things can get.

And you go back to the issue of women's education. You know, we know that earlier this year, the Taliban reneged on a pledge to remove a ban on older girls' education.

But at this point, given how things have been playing out in recent weeks, we have to worry that the Taliban could come back to women's education, perhaps expand the ban to -- to younger women, as well. I certainly hope it doesn't come to that. But the trend lines really are not good at this point.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. And, again, more bad news. I wanted to ask you about a truly disturbing thing that's been going on for a while. The growing number of attacks targeting minorities. Notably, the Hazaras but also other Shia groups, Sufis, and so on. ISIS is behind many of the attacks. But a lot of these minorities say

they get little or no government protection. How concerning is that when it comes to minorities and Afghanistan?

KUGELMAN: This is concerning. But this is not a new story. I mean, even before the Taliban had retaken power last year, the ethnic minorities, particularly Hazara Shias, have been targeted.

And they were repeatedly, understandably, lambasting the Afghan government for not doing enough to provide security, especially after attacks happened. And that's just continued now in the Taliban era.

And the Taliban certainly does not appear to either have the will, or certainly not the capacity, to provide the types of security that these -- these very vulnerable, imperiled minorities deserve.

And unfortunately, the main perpetrator of these attacks is ISIS, ISIS Khorasan, which has been emboldened over the last year. It's been able to carry out a number of attacks. And the Taliban has not been able to stop them.

[00:35:06]

ISIS has also, I would assume, amassed a lot of weaponry that had been left behind by the collapsed Afghan military last year and also departed NATO forces.

So you know, ISIS is a force to be reckoned with. We wouldn't want to overstate its power. But it has the capacity to do terrible things, and clearly, the Taliban did not have the capacity to stop them.

And obviously, it's these incredibly vulnerable communities that lose out and suffer the most.

HOLMES: We've only got a minute left. I wanted to sort of summon up. And in totality of everything we've been discussing, what does a vulnerable or potentially collapsing Afghanistan mean regionally and for the rest of the world in terms of geopolitical instability? I mean, it's in everyone's interest that that doesn't happen, right?

KUGELMAN: Right. I mean, the trick is to keep this issue in the public eye. And I'm glad you're covering the story right now. I think there are two key challenges to look out for. One would be refugees. I mean, refugee flows with the economic stress, what it is.

If that continues, you have to worry about the -- the inevitability of more people trying to leave Afghanistan, trying to go to other countries. Iran and Pakistan are typically where Afghan refugees have gone the most over the years.

But Iran and Pakistan are both experiencing severe political and economic stress right now. They don't want to be in a position where they have to take more in. That's an issue.

And then certainly, terrorism is the other risk. Now, poverty and privation are not the only sparks for radicalization, but they are sparks. And as I said before, Islamic State has gotten stronger over the last year, and it clearly has the capacity not just to carry out its acts in Afghanistan, but also in Pakistan.

And some months ago it also claimed to have sent missiles into several countries in Central Asia. So clearly, terrorism is a risk not only to Afghanistan, but also to -- to neighboring states.

HOLMES: Yes. Indeed. Always terrific analysis. Michael Kugelman, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

KUGELMAN: Thank you.

HOLMES: Now, the death toll is rising as the search continues for survivors of a landslide on an island in Italy. We'll have the details after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: The death toll from a landslide on the Italian island of Ischia now stands at seven, a newborn among the dead. Italy's prime minister has declared a state of emergency, and the arduous task of cleaning up has begun.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES (voice-over): Rescue teams search for missing people after disaster struck an island off the coast of Italy.

Heavy rain resulted in a wave of mud and debris crashing through a small town on the island of Ischia, known as a popular tourist destination.

Local authorities confirmed the landslide caused the deaths of several residents, including a newborn. The disaster leaving buildings destroyed, cars overturned, and streets covered in mud.

[00:40:12]

LUCA CARI, FIREFIGHTER (through translator): Some houses have been swept away by mud. And you can see it here, on the sea front. There are huge rocks, and they have been transported by the landslide from the hill.

HOLMES (voice-over): Volunteers joined forces with emergency services in the search-and-rescue efforts for those thought to be missing in the wreckage. The operations have been challenged by difficult weather conditions as strong winds persist.

In a Sunday prayer, Pope Francis expressed his concern for those affected by the disaster.

POPE FRANCIS, LEADER OF CATHOLIC CHURCH (through translator): I am close to the population of the island of Ischia, hit by flooding. I pray for the victims, for those who are suffering, and for all those who have come to the rescue.

HOLMES: The national government has declared a state of emergency and released more than $2 million of aid and assistance to the island.

More than 200 people have already been evacuated from the area, and crews are working to clean up leftover debris.

The true magnitude of the damage still being assessed as locals try to pick up what remains and carry on.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: And it appears there could be more trouble for the region. A new storm system forecast in the Mediterranean Monday.

Our meteorologist, Pedram Javaheri, has the very latest. Good to see you, Pedram. What are you seeing?

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good to see you, Michael.

You know, this is the time of year, the wet time of year in November. Certainly, October, November, and December. The wettest three months of the year this -- across this region of the world.

And the Mediterranean certainly active patterns developed this time of year, as well. And you notice what the end result is when you see an impressive amount of rainfall, as we saw on Saturday across this landscape.

Observed totals exceeding 200-plus millimeters in the span of 24 hours. To give you a sense of perspective for that, that's about six weeks' worth of rainfall, even in the wet season here for them. So that amount of rainfall for just about any location on Earth is going to lead to problems.

And 30 kilometers or so west of Naples is where we're looking at the island of Ischia. And notice, the highest observations would be found 242 millimeters in the span of 24 hours.

And again, September, October, November, December. These are the months of the year when we typically see the highest rainfall totals. But not often do we see 200-plus millimeters in just one day.

And this region is certainly prone to landslides, as well. Anytime you see excessive rainfall across an area that has elevated terrain, as does Ischia here, we could see that rainfall saturate the soil very rapidly. It takes on quite a bit of weight, and eventually fails. And these communities that are on hillsides often, whether it be from earthquakes or volcanic activity, as often is the case across this part of the world.

And in this case, heavy rainfall will lead to these landslides where the sides of these mountains can very much fail. And that is precisely the concern, is the soil here has been very saturated.

Now the next system, it is on the move, moving across this region. We do expect the bulk of the heavy rainfall instilled here to stay away from Ischia, but still, persistent showers are possible inside the next couple of days. You'll notice where Naples is and notice where some of the heavier

rainfall is just to the South of it. So it will keep the area cloudy over the next couple of days, maybe tap into a few showers, come later on into the week here.

But at this point, folks are only trying to recover across this region. And the last thing we want to see is wet weather in the forecast. And unfortunately, that might be the case here in the next couple of days.

HOLMES: Yes. We can only hope not. Pedram, thank you. Pedram Javaheri there.

And thanks for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes. You can follow me on Twitter and Instagram, @HolmesCNN. Do stay with us. WORLD SPORT coming up next.

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