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1.5 Million Early Votes Already Cast Ahead Of GA Runoff Election; Prosecutors Rest In Trump Org. Tax Fraud Trial, Case Heading To Jury; All Eyes On Fed's Next Move After Strong Nov Jobs Report. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired December 02, 2022 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: Yes.

NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: But a (inaudible) indeed.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN HOST: Please keep following this, please.

VALENCIA: I will.

CAMEROTA: Thanks.

VALENCIA: Absolutely.

BLACKWELL: Thank you, Nick Valencia.

VALENCIA: Yes.

BLACKWELL: Top of the hour on CNN NEWSROOM. Good to have you along. I'm Victor Blackwell.

CAMEROTA: And I'm Alisyn Camerota.

Huge early vote turnout in the Georgia sent off - Senate runoff. Almost one and a half million ballots has been cast ahead of next week's decision day.

BLACKWELL: Today is the last day for Georgians to vote early for either incumbent Democratic senator, Raphael Warnock or Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

CNN's Dianne Gallagher is in Atlanta tracking both campaigns, so what are these final messages as we get close to the day we count the votes?

DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So I will tell you that both campaigns are happy to see these long lines at polling places across the state on this final day. Obviously, they wish that people didn't have to wait so long, but they're excited about the turnout, because that has been key to the closing at least early voting message for both Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock trying to get people to go out and vote, making sure that they understand that even though technically the control of the Senate is no longer hanging in the balance over this race, there were still so much at stake. Now look, we can see the line that is behind me here. You talked about the nearly 1.5 million voters through Thursday that have already voted. And look, just a few moments ago, Gabriel Sterling, who was the Chief Operating Officer of the Secretary of State's office here said that today they are already above pace of both Monday and Tuesday, which were those record breaking single daily total.

So we couldn't be in for yet another single daily total record breaking day, which is really with voting rights experts and also election officials expected typically the last day of early voting is one of if not the busiest day.

But remember, we're in a compressed schedule here. Just a four week runoff election, because of that new Republican sponsor voting law that came into effect last year, just a four-week and just five days of early in-person mandatory statewide voting. So while we're seeing higher daily totals, right now, they're running quite behind the pace of say, the 2021 overall total early voting.

And so that's something that Democrats have paid attention to, though I'm told that they're very encouraged by the turnout and where they're seeing the turnout thus far. And speaking to Republicans, they say they anticipate to have a much healthier Election Day turnout, which is what they typically look for, but said that right now, they also were finding bright spots in the early voting right now.

I've been talking to voters all day and I will tell you, Victor, Alisyn, they have complained about the long lines. I was just at a polling place on the other side of town on the south side, they were waiting about two hours to get to the polls there. But every single person told me they felt like this was not just their duty, but this was important to them because not only is this choosing the person who will represent Georgia in the Senate, but they also do feel the nation watching them and watching their choices here.

CAMEROTA: For sure. It's really encouraging to watch them exercise their civic duty. Dianne Gallagher, thank you for that. And be sure to join in for our special coverage of the Georgia runoff, Election Night in America starts Tuesday at 4 pm right here on CNN.

BLACKWELL: House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy and his critics are gearing up for a potential floor fight over the speakership in January.

CAMEROTA: McCarthy maintains he will have the 218 votes needed to secure the leadership role. But some conservative hardliners say otherwise. CNN's Melanie Zanona is on Capitol Hill. So why is he so confident, Melanie?

MELANIE ZANONA, CNN CAPITOL HILL REPORTER: Well, he's competent, because so far there isn't a serious challenger that has emerged. Now, I am told that some of the Kevin McCarthy's critics have been having informal conversations with other Republicans to try to see who might be interested in jumping in the speaker's race. But everyone that they've talked to, which includes Jim Jordan, who's a Trump ally and a McCarthy ally, has said they're backing McCarthy for speaker and that they wouldn't challenge McCarthy outright. However, it is really unknown what would happen on January 3rd if McCarthy can't get to 218 votes or he drops out of the race. If that scenario were to happen, there is a wide expectation that any number of Republicans would want to throw their hat into the ring. Take a listen to what Congressman Bob Good, a McCarthy critic said about a potential challenger.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. BOB GOOD (R-VA): There's quality candidates who represent the conservative center of the Republican conference who are privately acknowledging that once it becomes clear, it's not going to be Kevin McCarthy. They are interested in becoming speaker and there are members who would excite the base, who would excite Republicans across the country, unite Republicans across the country as candidates, but they're not going to raise their hand publicly until it's clear to them that it's not going to be Kevin McCarthy.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZANONO: So the recruitment effort thus far unsuccessful and McCarthy still has four weeks to win over critics. He has a number of tools at his disposal that he has yet to use to try to get those critics to his camp.

[15:05:07]

But it's going to be a messy process between now and January 3rd, guys.

BLACKWELL: All right. Melanie Zanona, thank you.

Let's go to Boston now where President Biden is meeting with Prince William.

CAMEROTA: ...who is with the President in Boston tell us what they're talking about there, Priscilla.

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Well, the White House tells us that they're expected to talk about climate change and mental health and it is climate change that actually brings the Prince of Wales to Boston. Prince William and Princess Kate has been here on a multi day, visit ahead of their Earthshot Prize awards, a ceremony that's supposed to happen tonight, an award that was founded by William to tackle environmental challenges.

Now, the two visits coincided, President Biden is here to meet with union workers, notably on a day when he signed the rail legislation that received some pushback from union members for not having paid sick leave. And he's also going to participate in a key fundraiser ahead of that Georgia Senate runoff where he's going to shore up support for Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and this is a strategy he's employed before, essentially shoring up support from a distance doing that now for, again, Warnock as Democrats try to get another seat in the Senate next week, Victor and Alisyn.

BLACKWELL: All right. Priscilla, thank you.

Let's get back now to the goings on, on Capitol Hill. Alyssa Farah Griffin is a former Trump White House communications director and a CNN Political Commentator. And Alice Stewart is a Republican strategist and CNN political commentator as well, good to have you both.

Alyssa, let's start with you and you can't beat some no - somebody with nobody, right? Who's on the shortlist of potential not McCarthys that could get 218 votes, anybody?

ALYSSA FARAH GRIFFIN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, so that's the magic question. Conservatives may be overplaying their hand here because they don't have a consensus candidate to put up. Jim Banks would have been obvious, but now he's looking at a Senate run, Jim Jordan is not interested in it.

So the most likely scenario if Kevin McCarthy can't get to 218 and it will go to multiple ballots, that's what happens would be someone like Steve Scalise coming into the void who I think could get the 218. And the problem is, I was working on Capitol Hill in 2015 when House conservatives blocked McCarthy from the speakership then.

I think it's going to be a lot of behind the scenes trying to get extractions from him and commitments in the next few weeks leading up to that floor vote. I think it is probably 5050 he ends up pulling off the speakership at this point.

CAMEROTA: Alice, that do you think?

ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Without putting someone forward, this is just noise and that's what we're hearing from these people that are showing their opposition to McCarthy without putting a name and a face up there.

And I happen to agree with conservative commentator, Mark Levin, who says these people are boneheaded and they're saboteurs of what Republicans need to do moving forward. But the most important thing that Republicans can do is recognize the heavy lift that Republicans across the country did to get majority in the House and they need to work together and that includes getting behind McCarthy and helping him to start off leading in a good fashion.

Look, right now, what we're seeing is a lot of people that are very vocal and a lot of these conversations need to be held behind closed doors. McCarthy is very good at these behind closed doors meetings and working to listen to the concerns of these people that are opposed to him and he's working out deals, a lot of them want to see rules changes, and he's working out deals one-on-one.

The Republicans I'm speaking with are confident that he's going to have the votes necessary to do so, because right now we're just playing into the Democrats hands with all this infighting with Republicans.

BLACKWELL: Alyssa, it's fascinating, you think it could go either way. We got other things to talk about, but is there a bridge too far for McCarthy if all they want are some - they want to fight, they want some concessions, do you think there's a list of things it'll say, if that's what you need, then you could pick someone else?

GRIFFIN: I think one of the biggest challenges he's facing is some of the House conservatives want a rules change that will make it easier to use the motion to vacate which is basically the vote of no confidence to take the speaker out of power. He's very concerned about having that, because it means even if they give him the speakership, it could be a very short lived speakership.

I agree with Alice, I think it's largely a sideshow in the sense that kind of put up or shut up you have to have an alternative. But the problem is if you pay attention to the four who've been vocal hard nos on McCarthy, they're not budging. So the only lane is, is there something you could give to Democrats or do you give them something significant enough to switch to those votes over.

CAMEROTA: Alice, let's talk about what's going on in Georgia, the Senate runoff there. So former President Obama was down in Georgia campaigning for Sen. Warnock and he appears to be having some fun with that.

[15:10:02]

So here he is after Herschel Walker made some kind of light hearted comments, so did President Obama.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HERSCHEL WALKER, (R) SENATE CANDIDATE: You all watch a stupid movie late at night and hoping it's going to be better, don't get better but keep watching it anyway because the other night I was watching this movie Called "Fright Night" or Sleep Night (ph) or some kinds of nights, but it's about vampires.

I don't know if you know, but vampires are cool people (inaudible), but I'm telling you something that I found out, a werewolf can kill a vampire, do you know that? I never knew that, so I don't want to be a vampire anymore. I want to be a werewolf.

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Mr. Walker has been talking about issues that are of great importance to the people of Georgia. Like whether it's better to be a vampire or a werewolf. This is a debate that I must confess I once had myself when I was seven, when I grew up, as far as I'm concerned, he can be anything he wants to be, except for a United States senator.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Alice, what do you think is going to happen on Tuesday?

STEWART: A lot of material to work with there. Look, I'm from Georgia. I speak with a lot of my family and friends that are there and they are cautiously optimistic. Look, this is tight. This is extremely tight and the name of the game right now is turnout, turning out the votes.

And the RNC as well as the Walker campaign, hundreds of people on the ground knocking on doors, making phone calls and getting voters out, but what Herschel Walker has in his camp is Gov. Brian Kemp, extremely popular just reelected. He's been out there on the campaign trail with Herschel and focusing on things that are important to the people of Georgia, reminding them that this is a very important race. This is about maintaining a 50-50 split in the Senate, which is critical for committee assignments.

And he's also making sure that he focuses on the policies that Herschel Walker will focus on if he's elected, policies that are important to the people of Georgia that he has worked on, which is COVID issues, the economy being strong on crime and supporting our military.

And he says that Herschel Walker is out there for the people of Georgia, Raphael Warnock is nothing more than a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. And those policies aren't popular in Georgia and Brian Kemp, I think, is a great surrogate for Herschel Walker.

BLACKWELL: Alyssa, the spending on ads since the general, Republicans are spending and Republican allied groups are spending less than half of what Democratic groups are and, of course, the Warnock campaign. What does that signal to voters? Is there less enthusiasm about getting Herschel Walker now that he won't be the deciding vote of control?

GRIFFIN: Well, it still become one of the most expensive Senate runoffs despite the balance of power in the Senate not being on the line.

BLACKWELL: Sure.

GRIFFIN: I would hope that the resources the RNC and other outside groups are putting toward get out the vote efforts. That's what matters the most more than the ads do at this point. This race is neck and neck. Most polling I've seen has them within four points of each other.

And what I keep hearing is the GOP heavy hitters are showing up for Walker, Ted Cruz was there, Lindsey Graham has been with him, Nikki Haley and others, and of course, Brian Kemp. I think that some of the concern, though, is that the center of gravity is just shifting toward Warnock because of the fact that this is not about the balance of power for the Senate.

CAMEROTA: Okay. Alyssa, Alice, thank you both.

STEWART: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: This just in to CNN, closing arguments have wrapped up in the tax fraud case against the Trump Organization.

BLACKWELL: CNN's Kara Scannell is following this case, Kara, tell us what's happening now as the jury started deliberating. KARA SCANNELL, CNN REPORTER: No, Victor, so the closing statements finished up today, we have the prosecution go first. On Monday, the judge will instruct the jury on the law and this is a real critical piece of this, about how the company can be held liable for the actions of some of the employees. That's the government's theory and then the jury will get the case and begin deliberations, but today was all about the prosecution, giving their closing arguments. They followed the defense, which is how it works in New York State.

The defense went first and they were pinning this tax fraud on Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of The Trump Organization. They said that he was a rogue employee. Well, that opened the door for the prosecution today to say that the former President Donald Trump was not blissfully ignorant of these crimes.

They went - now he's not on trial, just a reminder - but they went through different elements of this case where he has popped up. The former president had signed some of these bonus checks that were given to employees that were subject to the allegations that they got some untaxed fringe benefits.

They said - showed that he signed off on car leases, that he signed off on corporate apartments and even signed the lease for the apartment that was given to Allen Weisselberg. Those are all elements of the allegations in the government's case where The Trump Organization, they say, had benefited because they gave these employees these off the book compensation through this different sorts of benefits like the car leases and the apartment.

[15:15:04]

Now, the government - Donald Trump is not on trial, but they entered him into this case this afternoon by saying he signed off on this and one of the things they pulled up an exhibit where it showed that Trump had initialed what was a salary reduction for one of the executives.

Now, they don't tie Trump to the specific fraud, but they entered it in a reason in which a prosecutor said Mr. Trump explicitly sanction tax fraud. Now after the closing statements wrapped, lawyers for the Trump companies ask the judge for a mistrial. They said that the prosecutor had went too far by calling him an unindicted co- conspirator. And the judge denied the miss trial. He said he would give the jury an instruction on Monday and that is when deliberations will begin, Victor, Alisyn?

BLACKWELL: All right. We'll look ahead to next week. Kara Scannell, thank you.

CAMEROTA: So today's strong jobs report is fueling concerns of more interest rate hikes from the Fed, what that means for you ahead.

BLACKWELL: And Twitter suspends the account of the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, after more erratic and anti-Semitic posts, more ahead.

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CAMEROTA: Gas prices continue to fall. A gallon today costs, on average, $0.30 less than it did just a month ago.

BLACKWELL: Americans are paying less for gas now than before Russia invaded Ukraine in February and prices may slide even more by Christmas.

Now, lower gas prices, this is one of the major factors President Biden highlighted when he touted the state of the U.S. economy today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And our economy continues to grow. We're in a position now where things are moving and moving in the right direction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: New numbers out today show U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in November, more than anticipated, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Now wages are also up more than 5 percent for the year, it's fueling fears that the Federal Reserve is going to do another big rate hike.

Diane Swonk is Chief Economist at accounting giant KPMG. Diane, always good to have you. Let's start talk - before we get to the Fed - just on the characterization by the President that things are moving in the right direction, the economy's on the right path, do you agree with that?

DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KPMG: Well, there's no question that the economy is growing. We've added over 4.3 million jobs this year, it's really stunning. That's almost doubled to pays of the 2010s. That is what's helped aggregate incomes stay afloat, even as inflation has eroded individual's purchasing power.

And that's the dichotomy that we've got is that inflation has eroded individual purchasing power. It's great that prices at the pump are lower. That doesn't deal with though the underlying inflation that the Fed is so concerned about. One of the things that the Fed is very worried about is the acceleration we saw in service sector, wages feeding into a more protected sort of metastasized inflation.

Inflation is like a cancer, if you don't treat it and it goes untreated, it can become a more chronic or fatal disease. The cure, though, is not easy and this has just upped the ante that the Fed has to hit the brakes much harder now to control inflation at the underlying level so that we don't have it persist, even though we're taking some of the steam off in some important areas like prices at the pump.

The bottom line is inflation, underlying inflation is still there and we'll set a floor on inflation and how low we can go, getting consumers back into the place they need to be where wages outpace inflation gains persistently, instead of where individuals feel like they're losing ground.

BLACKWELL: So as we look to the Fed, you mentioned Jerome Powell there, he said, this week that moderating the pace of these interest rate increases could come as soon as their meeting in a couple of weeks. But from what I'm hearing from you is that these numbers, and let's add to this October's job numbers, they were revised up to 284,000 new jobs could force him to keep his foot on the brake, at least for this meeting, maybe any reductions, as you say, slowing pace until next year.

SWONK: That could be the case. It certainly put 75 basis points back on the table. We've only had five, three-quarters of percent rate hikes in the history of the Fed. The first one was in 1994 and actually, I remember it, and that was a surprise rate hike of three quarters of a percent. The last four rate hikes have been at the last Fed meetings.

So we've had four meetings in a row raising by 75 basis points. The Fed would like to moderate pace of rate hikes going forward. But this does put that back on the table. It's also important, the Fed Chairman noted and it's something that was really important in today's data.

The ongoing effects the pandemic is having on labor force and labor shortages, 1.6 million people were out bill and unable to work in the month of November. That's the second highest level since the Omicron wave in January 2022 and it's 70 percent higher than we saw in the 20 times. That's a lot of staffing shortages that employers have to deal with and adds costs and inflation to the economy.

BLACKWELL: Mark Zandi over at Moody's, the Chief Economist for Moody's Analytics says that it looks like the U.S. will narrowly avoid a recession. Do you think we're done with these category one or category four storm analogies for the economy that the U.S. will kind of slip by a recession?

SWONK: Well, Mark, I have enormous respect for and he's a good friend. I hope he's right. My own view is that the Fed now is in the position of hitting the brake harder and at their last meeting in November they thought the chance of the economy having a prolonged slowdown with the rise in unemployment that's their baseline scenario, not much different than a recession.

[15:25:12]

And having a recession were about equal and I think unfortunately they might - now may feel forced to push the economy through thin ice.

So, unfortunately, I think we do have a recession in store for us. The good news is, this is the only way to put it, a Fed-induced recession where consumer and firm balance sheets are where they're at. We should be able to come out of it much more rapidly than we have in previous recessions certainly than the situation in 2008, 2009.

BLACKWELL: Yes, short and shallow. Diane Swonk, thank you.

CAMEROTA: Okay, in Hawaii, the lava from that volcano that has been erupting all week is getting closer to a critical roadway. We're going to go there live next.

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