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Federal Reserve Anticipates Weak U.S. Economic Growth in 2023; Pandemic Spurs Changes in Workforce and Family Care; Special Counsel Issues Subpoena to Battleground States Targeted by Trump Allies; Only Small Percentage of Cancers in U.S. Detected by Screening. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired December 15, 2022 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:30:36]

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: This morning investors may be a little rattled by what they heard from Fed chair Jerome Powell as he outlines his expectations for a barely growing economy over the next year signaling his aim of course to continue these rate increases. You see the markets there. Aiming to get inflation all the way back down, as they said, down to 2 percent. Remember we're at 7 percent now.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: All right. To figure it all out, chief business correspondent Christine Romans joins us now.

Maybe here's the dilemma. Folks want to hear from the Fed, they're going to slow down interest rate raises. They want to see the economy is slowing because then the rates are working but not too much that it's going to be like dipping into a recession. So, I mean, we don't know where it's all going to land. But what do we learn from the latest figures both interest rates, jobs data, retail, et cetera.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: I know you're sort of illustrating the sweet spot that the Fed has been trying to get to with all of these conflicting and complicated head winds and tail winds in the economy. So let's start to get some retail sales, what we saw today. These are November retail sales, not adjusted for inflation, and they were the weakest in about a year. And you could see how that reverses from a very strong October.

A couple of things happening here. Auto sales were down. A lot of different factors because of that. Again, I said these are not inflation adjusted so all of those markdowns you saw for the holiday weekend, holiday shopping weekend, that means that could dampen -- even as people are buying a lot of stuff, it could mean that the retail sales number is dampened a little bit here. And we're seeing that people are shifting how they're spending, right.

They focus on the important stuff first and they're shifting more toward experiences and away from goods. So all of that is at play here. At the same time, you get these jobless claims figures and they unexpectedly fell by like 20,000. So just 211 first-time unemployment claims. You guys, before the pandemic, this would have an unbelievably amazing

number about how strong the job market is. So this is something to watch here. The Fed is predicting by next year you're going to have a 4.6 percent unemployment rate so the Fed is saying higher interest rates, they'll eventually start working through here, and you'll start to see layoffs rise and layoffs rising will take some of the heat out of wages and take some of the heat out of the labor market that is spinning off all of this inflation.

So the Fed has raised interest rates now seven times this year. There was down shift yesterday so just about half a point. I mean, still that's a big rate hike, right, but at some point the feeling is in 2023, the U.S. economy will start to slow and more gradually move out of this too hot post-pandemic period that we've been living through.

HILL: All right. We'll be watching for it and you'll be guiding us the whole way. Christine, thank you.

ROMANS: You're welcome.

SCIUTTO: All right. The pandemic it forced a shake-up in how we all work and our priorities. A lot of folks working from home, for instance. But you also have another category. Young men choosing not to work at all.

HILL: CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich with more on the numbers, taking a closer look at who is now stepping out of the work force, who's taking their place, and for those who were stepping out, what they're choosing to do instead.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID SHNITZLER, AT-HOME DAD: Good morning, Winston. Let's start the day.

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): It's a typical day in the Shnitzler household. Seventeen-month- old Winston is up and parents David and Allison are getting ready for work. Winston is fed, there's some play, and then the morning good- byes.

ALLISON SHNITZLER: Bye-bye.

D. SHNITZLER: Say bye-bye.

YURKEVICH: They're off to work.

A SHNITZLER, WORKING MOM: Bye-bye. Have a good day.

YURKEVICH: Allison, a family physician, and David, an insurance underwriter, now an at-home dad.

D. SCHNITZLER: Caring for Winston, tending to the house, playing with him, all of that comes first.

YURKEVICH: Last year the Schnitzler's made a significant life change. D. SCHNITZLER: We made that decision to have me stay home.

YURKEVICH: David quit his job to take care of Winston full time so Allison could continue her career.

D. SCHNITZLER: We're happy with the roles that we're in. It's phenomenal.

YURKEVICH: And in recent months, more men ages 30 to 44 have been dropping out of the workforce according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor force participation rate for men in that age group is lower than it was pre-pandemic.

RICHARD V. REEVES, SENIOR FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: I don't think it's a secret that many of us rethought our whole work life balance, what were we doing, who's raising the kids, how do we want our family to work? That's a question that a lot of families have been asking themselves.

YURKEVICH: And more women in recent months ages 30 to 44 are participating in the labor force and at a higher rate than pre- pandemic according to Labor Department data. And they're moving into more male-dominated industries.

[10:35:06]

REEVES: The fears of a she-cession turned out largely to be unfounded. Women are returning to the labor market. It's becoming increasingly common to see women, for example, having project management roles or generally management positions within construction.

YURKEVICH: Women like Ava Sedaghat.

AVA SEDAGHAT, PROJECT ENGINEER: I knew I wanted to work in construction management.

YURKEVICH: Sedaghat joined the construction industry two years ago as a project engineer. Today, women make up just 14 percent of the construction industry, but it's the highest on record.

SEDAGHAT: I think it was definitely intimidating. My only knowledge of the construction industry was that it was pretty heavy and male dominated. But the more that I started working in the industry and the more people I came into contact with, I think I realized pretty quickly on that there's a place for everyone in construction.

YURKEVICH (on camera): Do you see the construction industry as where you want to build your career?

SEDAGHAT: Definitely.

YURKEVICH (voice over): Early next year, the Schnitzlers will welcome baby number two, another boy, but that doesn't mean David is closing the door on rejoining the workforce one day.

D. SCHNITZLER: I won't say that I'm out of the workforce 100 percent, ,you know, retired, what have you, but for the time being we want to give our second infant son the same thing that we gave to our first, and that is a parent who's able to give them 100 percent.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

YURKEVICH: Now David's decision to step out of the work force to take care of his son actually represents a small percentage of why men are leaving. Economists say that historically the main reason why men leave the work force is because they are disabled or they are struggling with mental health or they are incarcerated. But just as women are stepping into more male-dominated industries, we need more men to step into female-dominated industries.

We're seeing women leaving teaching jobs. We're seeing women leaving nursing jobs. And we need more men to move into those roles, Jim and Erica. But it really just shows how the pandemic has not only changed the ways in which Americans want to work, but it has also changed the ways in which the work they will do. It's really challenging gender roles in this labor force right now -- guys.

SCIUTTO: Yes. It'd be interesting to see if those are long-term changes. Vanessa Yurkevich, thanks so much.

Well, the special counsel overseeing several investigations of Donald Trump has now subpoenaed officials in all seven of the key battleground states targeted by the former president and his allies in attempts to overturn the 2020 election. What those subpoenas mean for the overall probe? Coming up.

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[10:41:24]

HILL: This just into CNN. We're learning the January 6th Committee chair Bennie Thompson says the committee will in fact provide a full executive summary and eight chapters of its report on the insurrection during that public meeting scheduled for Monday. So we're going to be watching for that.

SCIUTTO: So how about the DOJ investigation? It's moving forward. The Special Counsel Jack Smith has just issued a subpoena to local officials in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. Smith's team has now sent subpoenas to local state officials in all seven of the battlegrounds states targeted by former President Trump and allies in their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

Joining us now, defense attorney and former federal prosecutor Shan Wu.

Shan, always good to have you on.

SHAN WU, DEFENSE ATTORNEY AND FORMER FEDERAL PROSECUTOR: Good to see you.

SCIUTTO: All right. So you look at these, you know, they talked to a lot of folks at the national level, now they're going to the state level. What do the subpoenas tell you about the scope of the investigation but also crucially the timing of their, you know, eventually decision on this?

WU: Well, the scope indicates that they're doing what they need to do in the scope. I mean, in order to take a real look at what evidence there is of a conspiracy, they need to check with the states for two reasons actually. First, obviously, if Trump or his allies were in touch with state officials trying to actively interfere, that's really critical. But also you can learn from those state officials was there really anything wrong with results? The answer is probably no.

And if they were telling the Trump folks that, that goes to their intent. They knew there was nothing wrong and they were making these fake challenges.

HILL: So, Shan, as we look at, too, where we stand with the seven states targeted by Donald Trump to overturn the election, it's only Georgia that's opened a criminal case into those efforts. Does that in any way impact the special counsel investigation?

WU: I don't think it impacts theirs. They are going to look at all of these states, particularly the swing state where they focused their efforts on. It's kind of interesting, I was just working on a piece about this for just security, there are potential state charges in the other states just like Georgia for things like fraud or, you know, interference with the election or pretending to be a public official for the state fake electors as we call them.

But it's very common for a federal and the state investigation to work together. So this could actually lead to a broader parallel investigation going on with both states as well as the federal DOJ investigation.

SCIUTTO: All right. Let's talking time here. We are one month into Trump's 2024 campaign already. We're hearing that Biden may make a decision after the holidays but, you know, this race is going to begin in earnest in the new year. What is the time pressure, if any, on the special counsel to act or not to act, given that political timeline? In your view, is he under some pressure to decide by X date?

[10:45:10]

WU: I think realistically he is. But I think he like A.G. Garland would not say that that is going to be pushing them to do anything hastily. I mean, clearly DOJ has not done anything in haste here.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

WU: Also --

SCIUTTO: (INAUDIBLE).

WU: Right. So the problem for them certainly is when it gets really close to the presidential election, they're going to run into this whole 60-day rule. They're going to be worried about being accused of being partisan with it. But in terms of the pace of the investigation, what they're doing, I think they're going to proceed just as they've been proceeding.

HILL: As they continue the proceeding, but there has been, as you noted, Garland doesn't seem to do anything perhaps as quickly as some people would like. But when we look at what is happening with the special counsel, I feel like the discussion this week has been all about how quickly the special counsel is moving.

WU: Yes. Absolutely. And it's a little bit hard to read into that. It could be some of these actions were teed up before he got on board. But they waited for him to come on board to give that fuller insulation to DOJ. But certainly he does not appear to be the kind of person who's going to gum up the works at all. I mean, there are some folks who'd come into a position like this would do the equivalent of grandstanding and saying they're reviewing it, they're going to make the decisions, but he's just letting the momentum flow, as he needs. So that's a good sign.

SCIUTTO: Goodness. Well, if you're talking about that 60-day rule, that's like two years out for this decision here. Goodness gracious. Shan Wu, thanks so much.

WU: Good to see you.

HILL: Still to come, a new study on cancer screenings and just how many cancer are actually diagnosed as a result of those tests. An author of this new report said she was actually shocked by the findings.

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[10:51:31]

HILL: New this morning, the White House says the stakes even higher now as U.S. confront a trio of threat this winter. White House COVID- 19 Response officials telling MJ Lee that the stakes are higher because of COVID-19, the flu and RSV. Of course all at once. So as part of its new push the administration is announcing plans to resume sending those free at-home COVID-19 tests. Each households can order as many as four free tests this winter. To do that, just log on to COVIDtests.gov. Officials also encouraging anyone, if you feel sick, just stay home.

SCIUTTO: Yes, take advantage of those tests.

Well, a shocking new report says that all diagnosed -- of all diagnosed cancers in the U.S., only 14 percent are detected by a screening test. The remaining cancers tend to be found when someone has symptoms or seeks out medical care for other reasons.

HILL: CNN senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen joining us now with the details.

So there is such an important large emphasis on screenings. I was surprised to see that the number was so low, Elizabeth.

SCIUTTO: Yes. ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think a lot

of people were surprised that that number was low and we can get into the reasons in a minute. Let's take a look again at that number that you just said. Ome 14 percent of cancers were caught by screening. That means that the other ones were caught when someone had symptoms and then went in to get checked. Of course at that point someone is much further along. You obviously in most cases way prefer to have it caught earlier.

Let's take a look at the four main cancers where there are screenings available. Breast cancer, only 61 percent of breast cancers were caught by screenings. That is actually lower than I thought. I thought mammography would catch a lot more that. Cervical cancers, 52 percent, are caught by screening. Colorectal cancer, 45 percent and lung cancer 3 percent.

Now, as for why that 14 percent number, why is this true, why isn't that higher? There is a couple of reasons. One, we don't have screenings for a lot of cancers. You saw those four that we do. But there is unfortunately quite a few that we don't. And so we need to get better diagnostic tests out there.

The other problem is that often people don't get screening. They don't know about it. They are scared to have it. They're scared it's going to hurt or be a problem. They don't have access to screening. There are all sorts of reasons and so that obviously needs to be improved as well -- Erica and Jim.

HILL: Yes.

SCIUTTO: And why is the number so long for lung cancer in particular?

COHEN: You know, it's interesting, lung cancer, the screening recommendations are a little bit trickier, Jim. It depends on your smoking history, it depends on whether you're smoking now, it depends on your age. So it's a little bit trickier for doctors to sort of, you know, look at all of that and then tell their patients and for patients to understand that. I think of all of these cancers, that's the one where obviously the screening needs to be stepped up because it's easy. It's just a CT scan. It's quick and painless so it's really unfortunate that that number is so low.

HILL: Yes. Elizabeth Cohen, really appreciate it. A lot to chew on there. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: All right. So something to do on Sunday morning. The World Cup Final is set. A heavyweight showdown between the defending champion France and the powerhouse who knows a thing or two about football as well, Argentina. The match-up cemented after the French too bad knocked out Morocco 2-nil. I was kind of rooting for Morocco.

HILL: Yes. It was quite a matchup. The Morocco-France matchup. Argentina of course is now chasing a third title. France Le Bleus attempting to become the first side to retain the World Cup since Brazil managed that feat 60 years ago. Who are you rooting for, Jim?

[10:55:03]

SCIUTTO: So we have a bet and we're going to hold ourselves here because I think you're going for France given your perfect French accent there. I'm going to go for Argentina.

HILL: I mean, I got family -- you know, the family is in France.

SCIUTTO: I hear you.

HILL: My son has his Maurice jersey ready to go.

SCIUTTO: All right, so --

HILL: And I got five euros in my wallet.

SCIUTTO: So we're betting five euros in your wallet, which means --

HILL: Five bucks in yours.

SCIUTTO: Sure. Just your five euros.

HILL: OK.

SCIUTTO: And let's see who comes out ahead on Sunday.

HILL: OK, so -- all right. By the way, for everybody watching at home, Jim loves a $5 bet. So we'll see. We will see where this one goes.

SCIUTTO: That's as high as I'll go.

HILL: I'm not going higher than that either. We will be watching.

Thanks to all of you for joining us today. I'm Erica Hill.

SCIUTTO: And I'm Jim Sciutto. "AT THIS HOUR" with Kate Bolduan starts right after a short break.

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