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Ukraine Says Bakhmut Holding Despite Constant Attacks; Winter Storm Brings Rain, Snow, Cold To Southern California; Florida Authorities Release Video Of Student Attacking Teacher's Aide; Energy Department Assesses COVID Most Likely Originated From Lab Leak; A Representative Calling For National Divorce; Afghan Family Struggles To Reunite. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired February 26, 2023 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:00:32]

JIM ACOSTA, CNN HOST: You are live in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Jim Acosta in Washington.

We begin this hour in Ukraine where the war with Russia is entering its second year with an ominous development. The director of the CIA confirms what CNN has been reporting, that the U.S. is confident that China is thinking about providing lethal aid to Russian troops in Ukraine. The agency doesn't believe a final decision has been made by Beijing, and today the White House is urging caution.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAKE SULLIVAN, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: And you know, Beijing will have to make its own decisions about how it proceeds, whether it provides military assistance. But if it goes down that road, it will come at real cost to China. And I think China's leaders are weighing that as they make their decisions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: But let's begin with today's fierce fighting in Ukraine. Alex Marquardt joins us now from Ukraine.

Alex, thanks for joining us. What's the latest from there?

ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim. Some of the most ferocious fighting with the heaviest casualties on both sides now taking place in and around the city of Bakhmut. Russian forces led by mercenaries and convicts in the Wagner group do appear to be making some progress. They claim to have taken several towns north of the city as they try to encircle it. Ukrainian forces say that they're standing their ground as they face these intense Russian assaults.

Jim, this is close quarters fighting. It was fighting at a distance with artillery tanks and mortars. Now it is street to street, building to building, house to house. President Zelenskyy has not publicly talked about the possibility of withdrawing, though it is certainly something that is possible because of how ferocious that fighting is. The president does seem to be softening his stance on that, saying

they will not defend the city at any cost. They obviously don't want to lose all of their men in that fight.

Jim, as you just noted, we are now in the second year of this war. President Putin, despite how disastrous it's gone for the Russian side, he doesn't appear to be changing course. He doesn't appear to be pulling back or entertaining any kind of negotiations. The director of the CIA, Bill Burns, did weigh in on Vladimir Putin's mindset earlier today on CBS News. Here's a little bit of what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAM BURNS, CIA DIRECTOR: I think Putin is right now entirely too confident of his ability to wear down Ukraine, to grind way. And that's he's giving every evidence that he's determined to do right now. At some point, he's going to have to face up to increasing costs as well, in coffins coming home to some of the poorest parts of Russia. There's a cumulative economic damage to Russia as well.

Huge reputational damage, it has not exactly been a great advertisement for Russian arm sales. So this is going to build over time. But right now, the honest answer I think Putin is quite determined.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MARQUARDT: And Jim, in terms of that economic damage, the E.U. has just announced its 10th round of sanctions against Russia. Sanctions that President Zelenskyy called powerful -- Jim.

ACOSTA: And Alex, we're seeing more about the global implications of the war. What's the latest on that?

MARQUARDT: Well, there is significant concern, as you just heard in that sound bite from Jake Sullivan, in the U.S. about lethal aid that China could provide to Russia. They have been providing non-lethal aid now. Top U.S. officials saying that China is actively considering sending lethal aid. They have not yet made a decision. The Biden administration making it clear that there would be consequences for China.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations saying they would cross a red line if they did so, because it would be a major boost to Russia. At the same time, one of Russia's biggest backers Iran might be getting some compensation for their support. Iran has been sending kamikaze drones and ammunition to Russia for use in Ukraine. Now according to the CIA director, Russia is ready to help Iran with their missile program and they're also considering sending fighter jets to Iran.

So according to Director Burns, that relationship deepening between Iran and Russia in a curb disturbing way -- Jim.

ACOSTA: All right. Alex Marquardt reporting from Ukraine. Thank you very much. Let's discuss all of this with retired Lieutenant Colonel Alexander

Vindman, a former director of European Affairs at the White House National Security Council.

Colonel Vindman, great to have you back on the program. We appreciate it. Let's begin with U.S. intelligence believing China may provide lethal support to Russian troops in Ukraine.

[16:05:02]

What are your thoughts on that? That sounds like that could lead to a serious escalation and some big problems for the Ukrainians.

LT. COL. ALEXANDER VINDMAN (RET.), FORMER EUROPEAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: Thanks, Jim, for having me on again. It is a serious problem. There's very few game changers in this war at this point. Russia is not going to be able to pull a rabbit out of a hat domestically or even with kind of second string partnerships with regards to Iran or North Korea.

China, on the other hand, with its massive industrial base, is a game changer. If the Ukrainians lose, if Russia somehow manages to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat, it's going to be on the -- at the aid of the Chinese. And this is the danger of a long war, a war that's entering its second year, a war that's starting to spill over. First we heard of Iranian support, then North Koreans providing ammunition. Now the Chinese.

The reason that these countries are doing so is because they smell opportunity and vulnerability. They smell opportunity in that Russia can still potentially pull some success out of this. This will aid the authoritarian world and these countries' own aspirations to establish their own kind of imperial projects, secure territory on their boundaries, and it's actually vulnerability because erosions -- deterrence is eroding, and the -- these powers start to think that while, you know, what are the real costs here? Some minor sanctions?

In exchange, we could really undermine the strength of the Euro Atlantic alliance, the United States. So this is the danger of a long war scenario. And frankly, in part, this is the result of insufficient support from the West to help compel a short war and force Putin, who is yet still determined to win in Ukraine, but wouldn't be able to be so, let's say, optimistic if his forces were consistently being defeated on the battlefield. Bakhmut is an example in their gain so far.

ACOSTA: Yes. And I want to ask you more about what Putin is up to in just a moment. But let me ask you this because on China, the South China Sea is one of the most contested regions in the world as you know. Chinese fighter jets will sometimes confront U.S. Military aircraft. And I think this gets to the point you were just talking a few moments ago about spheres of influence.

I just have to ask you about this. A CNN crew was on board a Navy plane just recently as one of these encounters unfolded. China is building up its military presence there, tensions are simmering, I mean, I remember covering this when I covered the Obama and Trump administrations. Do you see this as potentially erupting into an actual military confrontation?

VINDMAN: I think these bumps in the South China Sea are unlikely to result in broader confrontations. I think there's a chance of accident miscalculation. The interest on both the Chinese and the U.S. part would be to avoid a broader spillover. But the relationship is overall getting much, much sharper. The U.S. destroying Russia's -- correction, China's surveillance balloons, that's a signal that we are now moving into kind of a more acute phase of the war.

The Chinese, you know, really kind of -- the timing is telling that they're now considering providing Russia aid is in part probably a response to this worsening relationship. So we're not really in danger of a confrontation immediately, but if this relationship keeps spiraling for another six months or a couple of years, we could start to really kind of shape an environment for a broader confrontation.

Instead, what we should be doing is we should ensure that Russia loses in Ukraine, and that depresses the ideas of China or any other country pursuing military means to achieve their ends. That is the biggest terms we have. It's just this war spilling out too long so far.

ACOSTA: Yes, I mean, and that's why the Ukraine question is so important, and getting back to that, Putin says, you know, Russia can't ignore the nuclear capabilities of the U.S. and other NATO countries. You know, he's obviously engaging in more of this nuclear bluster.

This is a question that comes up from time to time, Colonel Vindman. What is your latest sense of this? Do we need to take this as any more than bluster? Is there a darker message in portraying Russia as facing this existential threat? He obviously uses that for domestic political purposes, but should it be a concern for everybody?

VINDMAN: No. I think there will be a time where this question of nuclear saber rattling or nuclear consideration of a nuclear option might become live. It might become live, you know, a year down the road when after a series of failures on the part of the Russian ground forces and Ukraine liberating additional territory, Crimea comes under a real threat.

And at that point in time, Putin is going to have to, you know, really start to think about what he does. Does he withdraw? Does he take the loss or does he escalate? Ultimately, he's not going to risk his regime by employing nuclear weapons and being ostracized by the remaining allies that he has.

[16:10:06]

Really that's China, that's the kind of the nefarious actors, but also India that would then have to break contact with Russia. But that's when it gets dangerous. Way down the line, what we should be doing, and I wrote about this recently, is we should be giving Ukraine all the means they need to succeed to liberate territory and to at least threaten the liberation of Crimea. That forces Putin to negotiate. That's when --

(CROSSTALK)

ACOSTA: Does that include the F-16s, do you think? Not to cut you off there, but does that include the F-16s?

VINDMAN: Absolutely. F-16s should be part of the mix. So should advance drones, our Reapers and Predator drones, that have much, much greater legs than anything that the Ukrainians have in their inventory, including firepower. Those should be going in. We should be not talking about 30 Abrams tanks, but 300 Abrams tanks.

The metering of equipment is playing out right now on the geopolitical stage because, again, the Chinse perceive vulnerabilities. They perceive that they might be able to provide Ukraine or provide Russia with enough aid where Russia is successful in Ukraine. This is an erosion of deterrence. What we should be doing is providing Ukraine all the resources they need, so like this deterrence remains ironclad and China doesn't consider some sort of adventures, doesn't provoke the West that's going to respond, not just with sanctions, but frankly with other ways to contain Russian and Chinese advances.

ACOSTA: All right. Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, always giving us a lot to consider and think about and mull over. Obviously, we're going to be talking about this in the days ahead. Thanks so much for joining us again. It's great catching up with you.

VINDMAN: Thank you.

ACOSTA: Appreciate it. All right, thank you.

All right. A heads up for our viewers at home. The CNN Special Report, "THE WILL TO WIN: UKRAINE AT WAR" airs tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. CNN's Clarissa Ward will join us with a preview live from Ukraine in the next hour. Stay tuned for that.

The rare blizzard that has buried Southern California in several feet of snow is moving east, threatening to bring hurricane force winds to the central states. This is what the storm is leaving in its wake east of Los Angeles. Nearly five feet of snow, if you can believe that, fell on Big Bear Mountain in a matter of hours. In Frazier Park, one woman told CNN snow has trapped her family inside their home since Friday.

Travel remains dangerous in parts of Southern California, as snow, ice, and flooding close parts of Interstate 5. And CNN's Camilla Bernal is about 75 miles north of Los Angeles in Lebec, California, for us.

Camila, I see the blue sky behind you, so I'm sure that's a relief to you. It has just been coming down out there.

CAMILA BERNAL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: To me and to so many people here in Southern California. It is nice to see the sun again. But we have so much snow that's accumulated over the last couple of days. In an area like where I am now, one to two feet of snow. In some of the higher elevation areas, more than six feet of snow. And we'll have to wait to see how quickly that snow melts because scientists say that that's the key in terms of the drought, whether or not it will help with the drought here in California.

But in the meantime, it has been very inconvenient for a lot of the people in Southern California, specifically drivers. Interstate 5 is still closed. So all we're seeing is tow trucks and snow trucks trying to clear the road. And yet they've told people, look, we cannot open yet. They were supposed to open at 11:00 a.m. local time. And we're still waiting for that. A lot of frustrated people who have been stuck for days near the highway.

Just about 40 miles south of where I am, a lot of rain. Not just in the L.A. area, but also in Castaic, California. And in that area, we saw essentially just the ground crumbling underneath a number of RVs that ended up in the Santa Clara River. So those people having to deal with a lot of troubles, and also with being stuck in that area. Here's one of the people that was in that area and what they're dealing with now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KARISSA JOHNSON, TV OWNER: I'm actually traveling from Bakersfield, and I can't get to work right now because of the snow. The 5 is closed going toward Bakersfield. I haven't been able to get back and forth to work for a couple of days. And also, I'm just kind of afraid we're going to have to evacuate if it gets any worse.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERNAL: So, actually, we just got word that they are going to reopen in escorting people in the highway. So good news there. But authorities also saying more rain, more snow could be possible in the next couple of days. So people still need to be very careful, Jim.

ACOSTA: Yes, yes. And so many folks, I hear it all the time, listen to CNN on the radio. So if you're listening to this newscast right now, please, exercise extreme caution in these elements. It is not what they are used to dealing with out there in California.

All right, Camilla Bernal, thank you very much.

The COVID-19 pandemic is over three years old and a classified report is now weighing in on the origins of the coronavirus.

[16:15:02]

And coming up, an employee at a Florida high school is attacked and taken to a hospital after being knocked to the floor by a student for an unbelievable reason.

Plus, federal teams are now going door-to-door conducting health surveys with residents after the toxic train wreck in Ohio. Is that enough?

You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ACOSTA: There's some terrifying video showing a Florida high school student viciously attacking a teacher's aide. According to investigators in Flagler County, the attack was provoked by the aide's decision to take away the student's video game. The sheriff's office is now releasing a surveillance video as the student faces felony aggravated assault charges.

And CNN's Isabel Rosales is following this for us.

Isabel, some of these videos is very disturbing. What does it show and what can you tell us about the student?

ISABEL ROSALES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Jim. Yes, this video is very hard to watch. And we see a student, 17 years old, 6'6" inches, about 270 pounds, just brutally, violently attacking a teacher's aide.

[16:20:07]

Now, according to the arrest report, when that student was speaking with a school resource deputy, he said that the reason he was so upset, what you spoke about there at the beginning, is because that teacher took away his Nintendo Switch. Here's a video right here, in it we see a student taking down the teacher to the ground, knocking her down. The teacher's aide, rather.

And then just going off on her, beating her at least 15 times. Punching and kicking. Then the students and other teachers, other school staff start to see the severity of what's happening there and jump in. Those blurred faces are the minors, are the students, and then they're trying to drag him away. And even as they were dragging him away, you can see him still kicking at that unconscious teacher's aide. She was later brought to a hospital gym.

And meanwhile, all of this, you know, happened in Matanzas High School, Flagler County on Tuesday. Listen to what the sheriff of Flagler County, Rick Staly, had to say to our affiliate WEZ 2 News.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHERIFF RICK STALY, FLAGLER COUNTY, FLORIDA: This could have been a homicide. When you push people down like that, they hit their head, you never know the outcome. Fortunately, other students and other faculty members, administrators came and intervened.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROSALES: Yes, and we do have a study by the American Psychological Association. It found that one-third of teachers reported being victimized, Jim, and support staff, so like a teacher's aide, like we saw in this instance, they were the most likely to report physical aggression with 99 percent of the aggressors being students. And the survey also found that up to 34 percent of educators reported seeing interest and finding interest in quitting or even transferring schools because of safety issues -- Jim. ACOSTA: My goodness. All right. What a scary situation there. Isabel

Rosales, thank you very much.

Still ahead, is the U.S. intelligence community changing its tune on how COVID originated in China? We have important context on this new headline you may have seen earlier today. That's next.

You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:26:39]

ACOSTA: There is new intelligence that's likely to rekindle the unsettled debate over the origins of COVID. The U.S. Department of Energy has concluded that it most likely came from a lab leak and not from an infected animal. But two CNN sources point out the department only backs this new assessment with, quote, "low confidence."

"The Wall Street Journal" was first to report on this and reporter Michael Gordon was part of the newspaper's team that broke the story.

Michael, thanks so much for being with us. What is this new assessment based on? Does it add more clarity or just muddy the waters even more, do you think?

MICHAEL GORDON, REPORTER, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: Well, Jim, there's been a division in the U.S. intelligence community all along and previously, as we reported, the FBI had asserted that a lab leak was likely with moderate confidence. And several other agencies were on the other side, saying with low confidence, it might have emerged naturally, meaning it leapt from an animal to a human being.

What's new here is that the Department of Energy has gone from an agnostic position, saying they don't know where it came from, to leaning toward the lab theory, as we reported with low confidence. So now you have two agencies leaning toward the lab theory, one with low confidence, one with moderate confidence, and four on the natural side with low confidence.

There's still a division, but it's significant that the Energy Department, which has national laboratories under its jurisdiction, is sticking out this stance.

ACOSTA: Well, let me ask you, I want to play a clip from White House National Security adviser Jake Sullivan, referencing your reporter -- reporting on CNN earlier this morning. Let's listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SULLIVAN: One of the things in that "Wall Street Journal" report, which I can't confirm or deny, but I will say the reference to the Department of Energy, President Biden specifically requested that the national labs, which are part of the Department of Energy, be brought into this assessment because he wants to put every tool at use to be able to figure out what happened here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Michael, I guess one of the problems here is that China has not exactly been very cooperative in helping the U.S. or the rest of the world, for that matter, get to the bottom of this. Without that kind of cooperation, will we ever know with any kind of certainty where the virus came from?

GORDON: Well, I certainly think there's the potential to learn more. And that's the view of certainly scientists like Dr. Relman at Stanford who looked into that, but they haven't exhausted all the means of learning about it.

But one thing, Jim, that I think is important, is the American public really hasn't been told enough about this. I mean, the administration has done an intensive intelligence community review, a 90-day effort. And what happened was they updated it recently in a several-page-long classified report, whose very existence was not known until we wrote about it in the "Wall Street Journal."

And the two parties that are analyzing this as a potential lab leak, the FBI and the Department of Energy, they've not testified to the Congress. No one's heard directly from the FBI or Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, which did an assessment on this, why they come to this conclusion. And I understand there's an imperative to protect their classified information, but it would seem possible to describe the logic of this in somewhat greater detail.

What we have now is a 17-page unclassified report from October 2021, and not much --

[16:30:00]

What we have now is this 17-page unclassified report from October 2021 and not much direct exchange with the different parts of the intelligence community, which are taking these different views. I mean, on all sides. I mean, I would think that the American public could learn a lot from hearing directly from these organizations.

ACOSTA: Yes, and, I mean, I remember covering this when this lab leak theory first developed during the Trump Administration. I spoke with a senior administration official who said, no, we have to consider this as a possibility.

And I remember Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was really the leading scientist during the Trump and some of the Biden years, on COVID saying, no, he really thought it was a virus that came from a jump from animal to human. And we just are seemingly stuck in this debate ever since. Do you think that this is going to change the debate? Where do you see it headed?

GORDON: Well, first of all, Dr. Fauci now says, and I heard him recently, that he's open to both views. Although, he --

ACOSTA: Right. GORDON: -- certainly tends (ph) towards the natural view. But what's happened, Jim, is that, initially, the theory was while it leapt from an animal host to a human being, and that -- why was that? Because that's how it happened before.

But now, we're three years into this. They've never found an animal. Not one. And there's been renewed attention on the kind of research activity that was going on in Wuhan, and the safety conditions under which that activity was being carried out, which is not high.

And so, the absence of an animal host, no one has ever been found. And a study of Chinese academic papers and more knowledge about the kind of Coronavirus research they were doing there, with an eye towards finding out a vaccine, presumably, has focused renewed attention on the lab.

So, what we have now is circumstantial evidence. But circumstantial evidence that is tending to lean more in favor of the lab theory. What we don't have is anything like conclusive evidence of one or the other.

And I don't think the jury is out on this. I think, certainly, that Congress is going to be digging into this some more. But I think there is -- there is more light that can be brought to bear on this. And possibly more information that the government has, in terms of its analysis, that can be declassified and made available to the American public.

There have been more than a million Americans who have died because of this. And we have a 17-page declassified report from October of 2021. People are really interested in learning more about it, even if the debate is going to continue.

ACOSTA: You're absolutely right about that. The American public has a right to know. We need to get to the bottom of it. And your reporting has gotten us in that direction.

Michael Gordon with "The Wall Street Journal", thanks, as always. We appreciate it.

GORDON: Right. Thank you.

ACOSTA: All right. And with me now to talk about this further is former U.S. ambassador to China, Gary Locke. Ambassador, thanks again for coming on. We appreciate it.

What is your reaction to this latest report about the Energy Department now assessing, yes, with low confidence, they call it low confidence, that COVID-19 most likely came from a lab leak in China.

Obviously, the debate isn't settled, as we were just talking about with Michael Gordon. But this is interesting. What do you think?

GARY LOCKE, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CHINA (via Webex by CISCO): Well, thanks for having me on, Jim. It is very interesting. And, as he indicated, we need to find out exactly how the Coronavirus, the COVID virus, hit the world. And caused millions of deaths, not just in America but all around the world.

Our scientists really need to know. Because, quite frankly, if it came from an animal, we need to be prepared. And we need to beef up our public health response to the next pandemic.

So, it is important for our scientists to get to the bottom of this.

ACOSTA: And if the U.S. ends up determining that this was a lab leak in China and the Chinese government essentially covered it up. And, of course, as we were just discussing, we're not at that place yet. But who knows? The investigation may go in that direction.

What should the consequences be for China? And how do you apply those consequences, when, right now, as you know from your background as an ambassador to China, things are not good, in terms of a relationship between the U.S. and China right now.

LOCKE: Well, it's really important that the international health organizations, which includes the United States, work with China and all other countries to set up protocols on communication. Alerts.

Anytime an accident might occur, or even if it really did come from an animal, making sure that all of that information is transmitted to health organizations all across the world as soon as possible. So that political leaders, scientific leaders, medical leaders, health officials in each of the different countries can make an informed decision on how they're going to proceed.

[16:35:02]

LOCKE: The part of the problem that we had with COVID, whether it came from a lab or it came from animals, is that the Chinese were very, very slow in alerting the world to it. And it only came out from bits and pieces from scientists and doctors within China. And, by then, it was too late.

And so, we really need to beef up our communication systems, our surveillance systems, so that all countries can act immediately. And, of course, we need to make sure that however this happened, we're prepared for the next pandemic. Whether it comes from another country. Whether it comes from animals or what have you.

How are we going to be -- how are we going to respond? Do we have vaccines available? Do we have protective gear available? Are our hospital systems up to -- you know, have the capability to respond to a huge pandemic?

ACOSTA: Yes, you're right. I mean, after all the terrible damage that COVID has done, I mean, one would think that the world is going to be better prepared for the next pandemic. I hope you're absolutely right about that.

Let me -- let me shift to China's potential involvement in Ukraine. This is also a worrying development this morning. The director of the CIA said that he is confident that China is considering sending lethal aid to Russia. Let's listen to a bit of that and I'll -- and I'll have you comment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAM BURNS, DIRECTOR, CIA: Well, we're confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment. We also don't see that a final decision has been made yet, and we don't see evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment. And that's why, I think, Secretary Blinken and the President have thought it important to make very clear what the consequences of that would be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Ambassador, what is China up to here? Are they playing games? Is this something we should take serious? What do you think?

LOCKE: Obviously, we need to take this information seriously. And the President, the Administration, has already conveyed to China the severe implications were they to go forth and make such a decision to provide lethal aid.

But it's also important to share this information with world leaders and have other world leaders who have very strong ties with China, whether it's India, other members of the European Union and parts around the world, to also indicate to China how unacceptable it would be, were it to provide lethal aid.

This cannot be simply a response by the United States. There has to be maximum coordinated multi-lateral pressure on China.

ACOSTA: Always a full plate when you're dealing with China. I know that's something you know all too well. Ambassador Gary Locke, thanks very much for your time. We appreciate it.

LOCKE: My pleasure.

ACOSTA: All right. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is calling for a national divorce. Perhaps you've heard some of this discussion. We'll discuss next with an expert on civil wars, who says she is concerned about where this kind of talk leads, ultimately. You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

[16:38:04]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ACOSTA: It's been two plus years since the events of January Sixth made starkly clear the deep divisions in this country. This week, Republican Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia upped the ante by taking to Twitter to call for a national divorce. She said we immediate to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government.

She goes on to imagine, red state utopia is where residents would, quote, "not have to abide by a climate cult of lies," as she puts it. She also wants a return of prayer in schools. And joining us now to talk about this is Barbara Walter. She's a professor in Pacific International Relations at U.C. San Diego. She's also the author of "How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them." Barbara, great to talk to you again. Welcome to the show. Thanks so much.

Let me ask you this, because you say Americans suffer from a failure of imagination. We believe that political collapse is something that happens in other countries, and we don't have to worry about it here. But we should worry about it, right?

BARBARA WALTER, PROFESSOR IN PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO (via Skype): Yes. So, you have not just any individual talking about a national divorce, but a Congressperson and somebody who has the ear of the majority leader. Marjorie Taylor Greene is increasingly influential and she increasingly represents a large subset of the American population.

When she talks about a national divorce, this might sound incident, but, in reality, it is absolutely not. These types of divorces tend to be deeply destabilizing, and they tend to be deeply destabilizing for both sides that are involved.

ACOSTA: And, you know, this Congresswoman, she's floated a lot of wild and unsubstantiated conspiracy theories in the past. They've all been well covered. I don't need to go over them again here.

But, as you said, her influence seems to grow among Republicans. And, I have to tell you, this sounds a lot like the debate over Trump and his incendiary rhetoric. Do we take it seriously? Do we not take it seriously? Are you making matters worse by covering it. Are you taking the bait and so on?

What is your take on all of this? Do we take it seriously?

WALTER: We have to take this seriously. And ignoring it does not mean it goes away.

And we have to take it seriously, because on the surface, what she's saying might actually resonate with a lot of people. They might actually think it makes sense. If the two sides are fighting, urban, rural split. The white, black. The Christian, non-Christian. If we're fighting, if we're increasingly polarized, maybe we should divorce. Maybe everybody will be happier as a result.

And what people need to know is the reality is often very, very different from that. If you look over the last hundred years at countries that have all had separatist movements, what you find is remarkably similar across these cases. Governments almost never allow these regions to leave without a fight.

[16:40:03]

WALTER: In fact, the one issue that governments almost never negotiate over is territory. They go to war and these wars tend to be the longest and the bloodiest wars out there. And so, what somebody like Marjorie Taylor Greene is getting wrong or what she's misrepresenting is really three realities that exist in this country. The first is that separation is not easy. With the exception of Wyoming, every red state has a sizable urban population.

ACOSTA: Why?

WALTER: And that population tends to be much more liberal, much more racially and religiously mixed, and they don't want to separate.

The second thing she misses is that, if separation happens, those red states who are already poorer on average than your regular American state, they're going to get poorer. And that actually represents a risk for both sides.

If you have a poor region, our enemies on the outside, think about how Putin might exploit this. Suddenly, he's offering to cover those subsidies. Suddenly, he's offering to help them in a variety of ways. And, of course, there's always strings attached to that.

And then, third, the American government. The rest of the U.S. becomes weaker, as a result also, because, from a security standpoint, suddenly, our borders are harder to defend.

ACOSTA: Well, and I was just about to ask you about this, the idea of -- that there are blue cities in red states. Look at Austin, Texas, for example. I mean, there are lots of examples like that.

And then, the other thing is, is that Marjorie Taylor Greene hails from Georgia, which voted for Joe Biden. So, who gets to decide which are the red states and which are the blue states? I mean, I can't imagine Miami's going to be all that thrilled about succeeding from the union. I mean, it just -- it just seems like it's -- this is, sort of, you know, fresh red meat for the base.

WALTER: It is, but you -- again, we can't just treat it as words.

ACOSTA: Yes.

WALTER: Because people will be listening to her. People will think that this is actually a possibility. They will be thinking about the United States in 1860s -- in the 1860s, when it actually was easy to separate, because the 11 confederate states were all led by white Christian men. They agreed on what they wanted to do. And they, essentially, had full control over that.

That is not the case today in these -- in these red states, that Marjorie Taylor Greene seems to assume will all want to follow in this national divorce.

ACOSTA: And, of course, it is -- it harkens back to the volatile, dangerous rhetoric we saw in the lead up to January Sixth. If you don't get your way in an election, if your policies aren't ultimately successful, because they're not popular with everybody, that you try to go around the Constitution to achieve your objectives. And it just -- it can end, as we saw on January Sixth, with a lot of violence and a lot of suffering.

Barbara Walter, great to talk to you, as always. Thank you very much. We appreciate it.

WALTER: It's my pleasure. Thank you.

ACOSTA: Thanks. Still ahead, CNN speaks to an Afghan father who, more than a year and a half after the fall of Kabul, is raising his sons in the U.S. alone. His daughter and wife still stuck in Taliban- controlled Afghanistan. That story, next.

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ACOSTA: You may remember the chaos at the Kabul airport, as the Taliban took over the Afghan capital, a year and a half ago. That was August 15, 2021. Afghans rushed to the airport desperate for a flight out before the U.S. withdrew. Some families ended up getting separated in the turmoil. And an Afghan father made it to the U.S., but his wife and daughter were left behind.

And CNN's Natasha Chen has that story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NATASHA CHEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A daily video call is the only way Ahmed Roman (ph) can connect with his wife and daughter in Kabul. We're keeping his wife and daughter's faces concealed for their safety.

They're in the dark with electricity for only a few hours each day, when they could have been here in the small light-filled apartment in California. Their family's sudden separation happened at the Kabul airport during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. And after a year and a half, Roman is no closer to getting his wife and daughter here.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Somebody asked me about that day, you should see my hands just shake.

CHEN: In mid-August, 2021, the family and their relatives headed to the airport, knowing their safety would be at risk under Taliban rule. But when they boarded the crowded cargo planes, they suddenly could not find their older son, Ozaire (ph). His parents came out of the plane searching for him amidst the chaos.

AHMED ROMAN: Just thousands of people on the ground.

CHEN: They finally realized Ozaire was already with another relative on a different plane. But, by that point, his mother and sister had been pushed beyond the airport gates.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I cried a lot to them, please let me go inside. My kids, my family had entered the plane. But they didn't let me.

CHEN: Roman waited and was one of the last to board his plane. He is now a single parent, raising Ozaire and little Rahman (ph) who has now spent half of his young life in the U.S.

ROMAN: I ask him, Rahman, who is she? She told me, it's mom. But I know Rahman don't know what's mom meaning.

CHEN: Roman's wife says the Taliban requires male supervision for her to go anywhere, including the store.

[16:55:04]

CHEN: And their daughter may not be able to continue school.

ROMAN: I'm just worry about my daughter's future.

CHEN: It wasn't until January when the U.S. State Department published a form for humanitarian parolees, like Roman, to apply for reunification assistance. Several advocacy groups across the U.S. each tell CNN they're working for dozens of families in the same situation. With one group, Women for Afghan Women, trying to help 400 separated families.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: When I see my kids on camera, but I cannot touch them, it's so difficult for me.

CHEN: We asked the State Department how many Afghan families are still waiting for unification. But their press office said the number is fluid. And that they have, quote, "already resettled thousands of Afghans, reunited families and welcomed them into our communities across the country."

(on camera): You have filled out every form that you could, but nobody is telling you how long this could take.

ROMAN: Actually, no one tells me, we can help you. They told me, we don't have any answer for this.

CHEN (voice-over): He says a team at the State Department is in contact with him to try to help. But both he and his lawyers say there's no information about next steps.

ROMAN: We have one thing that makes me strong. That's hope.

UNIDENTIFIED CHILD: Bye bye (INAUDIBLE.)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ACOSTA: Natasha Chan reporting there.

Still ahead, the CIA director says the U.S. is confident that China is considering sending lethal aid to Russia crossing a red line, according to the White House. What happens next? You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

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