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Uncertainty Remains Over Russia After Insurrection; Uprising marks major Challenge To Putin's Authority; Possible Tornado Leaves Destruction In Indiana; Key Putin Ally, Belarus President Lukashenko Brokered Deal That Ended Armed Insurrection; Future of Wagner Uncertain After Insurrection; Australian High Court Rules Against Russia In Claim To Keep Embassy Site. Aired 11p-12a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 23:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[23:00:00]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN HOST: Appreciate your company.

Coming up here on CNN NEWSROOM, uncertainty in Russia. There is no sign either the Russian president or the leader of Wagner mercenary group more than a day after an armed rebellion.

Also, just have a look at that severe weather across the U.S. from what appears to be a powerful tornado in Indiana to extreme heat for some 50 million people.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Live from CNN Center. This is CNN NEWSROOM with Michael Holmes.

Questions and uncertainty hanging over Russia this hour after an armed insurrection over the weekend rattled the country and its leader, exposing what some call cracks in Vladimir Putin's 23-year rule.

It is now just after six in the morning. The streets are quiet now. But anxiety gripped the city on Saturday after the Wagner Group mercenaries marched towards Moscow. Amidst brokered that the deal brought an abrupt end to the uprising. And the whereabouts of the Wagner Group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is now unknown.

Prigozhin, the Prigozhin's news service tells CNN he will answer questions when he has, quote, proper communication. One thing is clear, the insurrection marks the most serious threat we've seen to Putin's rule. And the U.S. Secretary of State says he doesn't think the turmoil is over.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: It's too soon to tell exactly where this is going to go. And I suspect that this is a moving picture. And we haven't seen the last act yet. But we can say this. First of all, what we've seen is extraordinary. And I think you've seen cracks emerge that that weren't there before.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HOLMES: And experts are warning the RAM [ph] mutiny by Prigozhin and his Wagner Group mercenaries could have consequences down the line. So much is still uncertain.

CNN's Matthew Chance reports for us from Moscow.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(CHANTING "WAGNER")

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: For the Kremlin, these are some of the most disturbing scenes from a weekend of shocking images.

(GUNSHOTS)

On the streets of a major Russian city, Rostov-on-Don in the south, residents cheered Wagner fighters as they withdrew. Many Russians see them as heroes, not as the traitors the Kremlin paints them.

And Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has become a celebrity too. Watch his supporters hailed down his car just to shake hands. The Kremlin says he's now moving to Belarus next door, but it's unclear if this is the last we'll see it in.

What is definite, though, is a sense of relief, at least here in the Russian capital.

It's calm now, but in the mayhem of the weekend, Moscow was on high alert. Military checkpoints on the outskirts of the city, residents bracing for Wagner fighters to enter and for the confrontation that never came.

It was really uneasy yesterday, says Andre [ph]. But look now, people are walking in the streets and it's all good. Let's hope it will stay peaceful, he adds.

But even here, the sympathy for Prigozhin's unprecedented challenge is tirades against the conduct of the war in Ukraine appears to have struck a popular chord.

I think it was an expression of an opinion, says Olek [ph], another resident of Moscow. And opinion of a powerful person who wants some justice and clarity. The belief Prigozhin should be listened to is widely shared here.

But that's not what the Kremlin wants to hear. Vladimir Putin hasn't appeared in public since making his angry pledge on Saturday. Filmed behind the scenes by state television to punish those responsible for what he called an armed mutiny, the biggest challenge to his authority in 23 years of power.

But now that challenge has been maimed. There are growing concerns about what a defensive President Putin stung by the events of this weekend will do next to stay in power.

Matthew Chance, CNN, Moscow.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: And CNN's Paula Newton following all the developments joins me now from Ottawa in Canada. Good to see you, Paula.

I guess the big question today is, you know, where is everyone, Prigozhin, Putin, Shoigu, Gerasimov? Crickets.

PAULA NEWTON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And Russians are shrewd, Michael. They will be wondering the same thing themselves, even if they're supporters of Putin. I mean, look, there are two things that happen here, either Putin and everyone in the Kremlin had so much disdain and contempt for their own people that they decided no one had to be spoken to today, but what's largely closer to the truth is that they are in a state of disarray, still trying to collect themselves, trying to figure out what to say and what to do.

[23:05:16]

And in that avenue when you try and go down that avenue a little bit further, yes, very, very stark consequences for Putin and for the Russian people here, as this is a state which is looking completely out of control.

I have never seen anything like this. And I think, Matthew, we just saw Matthew's reports, this just doesn't happen even in the depths of when the Ukrainian war started. And there was a lot of shock throughout Russia that they would even attempt to invade Ukraine. This never happened.

This kind of disquiet over the fact that no one decided to come out and speak and explain what this deal was, when they would see Prigozhin, what the next steps were. Just extraordinary.

And, again, as the sun comes up in many parts of Russia, at least in Moscow, they should start to think about what the plan will be today.

HOLMES: Yes. And I guess amid the chaos in Russia, perhaps opportunity across the border for Ukraine.

NEWTON: Yes. And I think this is the most interesting part, Michael, I mean, listen many people have said that perhaps as the counteroffensive goes on in Ukraine, that that is an opportunity. But, you know, this opportunity in terms of really sensing and trying to capitalize on Russia's weakness goes much further for President Zelenskyy. I want you to listen to him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): First, the world should not be afraid. We know that only our unity protects us. Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces. And it doesn't matter who commands them, we will protect. The security of Europe's eastern flank depends only on our defense. And that is why every manifestation of support for our defense is support for your defense, everyone in the free world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NEWTON: Now, he makes a strong point on two cases, not just to have his allies continue to arm up Ukraine, perhaps even with fighter jets more quickly, in the next few months to come, but in the next few years to come.

The fact that if Russia is going to present itself is that unstable, that it really, that NATO really does need a much firmer line in that country in order to defend itself and the alliance. NATO meeting coming up, as you know, Michael, in July, the second week of July, and you can bet Ukraine will be pushing even harder for membership and NATO eventually, but also for more military aid.

HOLMES: It'll be top of the agenda. Paula, good to see you. Paula Newton there in Ottawa for us.

U.S. President Joe Biden has spoken with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, about developments in Russia. Some U.S. officials still amazed the conflict ended so quickly as they had expected perhaps more violence.

CNN's Alex Marquardt, with more on the reaction from Washington.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN SENIOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: The abrupt ending to Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow was sooner and less violent than U.S. national security. And intelligence officials expected.

The U.S. official tells CNN that they assess that there would be a lot of fighting and bloodshed as Wagner forces pushed up from southern Russia toward Moscow. Instead, there is very little resistance from Russia's army, security services and others and Wagner troops are well on their way to the capitol before Prigozhin shockingly called the advanced to a halt and ordered his troops to turn around. A deal supposedly brokered by Belarus, also surprising the U.S.

But the insurrection itself was predicted by the U.S. intelligence community, according to multiple sources speaking to CNN. Movement and buildup of Wagner troop's equipment and weapons was observed by analysts and a rebellion was believed to be coming soon.

Intelligence officials briefed the Gang of Eight in Congress, the leaders of both chambers from both parties as well as the head of the intelligence committees. Here's Congressman Mike Turner, the Republican Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

REP. MIKE TURNER (R-OH): This is not a weekend trip he's taking, taking his convoy and his military convoy up to Moscow. There's a number of accomplices, including as we saw some of the Russian people on the border with Ukraine who clearly support the Wagner Group, in contrast to their support for the Russian government. This is something that would have had to have been planned for a significant amount of time to be executed in the manner in which it was.

MARQUARDT: Still, the speed and audacity of the move by Prigozhin caught many by surprise, along with his sudden decision to stop his troops in their tracks.

Alex Marquardt, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: And President Zelensky has also discussed Russia's internal conflicts with other world leaders, including the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the Polish President, Andrzej Duda. Mr. Zelenskyy said they all view the situation the same way and they know how to respond. Their talks also included the latest on Ukraine's frontlines.

[23:10:05]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: [inaudible]

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Ukraine's military claims to have gained some ground around Bakhmut amid heavy fighting over the weekend, and says Russian efforts to take territory have failed.

CNN's Ben Wedeman now with more on the frontline battles in Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTENTIONAL CORRESPONDENT: After the brief but intense drama in Russia, it's back to the war in Ukraine, while Wagner Chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was on the rampage against his foes in Moscow, officials in Kyiv were largely silent, following Napoleon's advice, never to interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.

Briefly, many Ukrainians entertained the hope that civil war or chaos in Russia would lead to an early end to the war, but Prigozhin's sudden about-face dash to those hopes.

Sunday, Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mikhail Podolyak, said in an interview, he was hoping for something more concrete, perhaps a civil war in Russia. He said he was still confident that will eventually happen.

While attention was diverted away from the front, the fighting went on. Sunday, Ukrainian officials claimed their forces had seized a kilometer -- a kilometer stretch of trenches near Bakhmut. They said they killed wounded or captured an entire battalion. Though they didn't give exact numbers. It was a limited tactical success. The much anticipated counter offensive has yet to hit its stride.

I'm Ben Wedeman, CNN, reporting from Zaporizhzhia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Video and images of a Russian military aircraft allegedly shot down by the Wagner Group are search circulating on social media. Russia's Ministry of Defense has not commented on the loss of any military aircraft, but this type of plane is sometimes used as an airborne command and communication center.

The cause of the crash not clear, but footage of the planes final plunge shows it had been hit by a missile or a rocket. A Russian military blogger said on Saturday that the Wagner Group shot the plane down and that it was carrying 10 people.

Russian state media is reporting that Wagner founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has offered to pay compensation to the relatives of the dead crew members.

Let's get some insight into what the insurrection and the sudden about-face could mean for the Russian military and Vladimir Putin going forward.

Joining me now is Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst in defense strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. It's good to see you again, Sir.

Prigozhin, he's no shrinking violet. And, of course, he's constantly made pronouncements on social media. Are you surprised we've not heard from him directly since the deal for him to move to Belarus? Do you think his days are numbered?

MALCOLM DAVIS, SENIOR ANALYST, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Look, I'm not surprised. I think he's probably laying low and trying to keep off the radar. The deal was for him to go to Belarus, but I really don't think he's going to go and retire in some villa in Belarus, because I'm sure he understands that Putin will seek his early demise.

So my guess is he's probably gone to ground and he will be looking at making plot plans to get out of Belarus and elsewhere so that maybe he can reunite with some members of his Wagner force.

HOLMES: Yes. He still operate in places like the Central African Republic.

After looking weak in the face of Prigozhin's mutiny, and then, you know, letting him get away with it, what are the risks Putin will feel the need to do something big in Ukraine to look tougher that he's still in control?

DAVIS: I think that's absolutely the case. Putin has come out of this looking very weak indeed. He had to rely on Lukashenko to essentially do a deal with Prigozhin, and he scuttled out of Moscow to one of his palaces in [inaudible]. So he wasn't even in Moscow whilst this was happening, you know, compares very differently to Zelenskyy at the beginning of the war in Ukraine where he said, I don't need a ride, I need ammo. So I think that Putin doesn't come over as a very strong leader. He comes over maybe as a broken lame duck dictator. And I think that what he will need to do to regain his -- basically his influence is at the strongman. And you could see him undertaking actions in Ukraine, such as being more provocative along NATO's eastern and southern frontier. You could see him talking about national mobilization even rattling nuclear sabers. All of these things are possible.

[23:15:06]

HOLMES: Yes. There's another aspect of this I wanted to run by. When you -- when you think about it. Now you've got obviously Russian regulars, but you've got Prigozhin's fighters who've stayed with him. Other Wagner troops quit and splintered off. You've got -- the Chechens have their own forces. There are a number of other private military companies as well.

All at a time of political uncertainty, and in the middle of a war, it's a lot of factions. What could possibly go wrong?

DAVIS: Oh, that's the classic question. I mean, I think we've all these factions emerging and the breakup of Wagner and as you say, the [inaudible], then you potentially have the risk of factional conflict, almost like gangland warfare emerging on the sidelines of the Ukraine conflict within Russia that could extend all the way up to it, including elements of the regime in Moscow.

You know, I think this is a recipe for ultimately a weakening Russia as a -- as a -- as a federal state, and potentially internal conflict. You know, we dodged the bullet of civil war over the weekend, but who's to say what happens next weekend?

HOLMES: Yes.

DAVIS: I think it's got to that point whereby you could see conflict breaking out in amongst multiple factions inside Russia.

HOLMES: Yes. Wagner, of course, is a brutal organization in terms of tactics and disregard for life, but it has been Russia's most effective force. How is Russia's war potentially impacted if Wagner isn't even on the battlefield in Ukraine?

DAVIS: Look, I don't think it's not so much a case of losing Wagner. I mean, they have a force of between 25,000 and 40,000 troops, which is sizable. And as you say, they're battle hardened. But they took heavy losses in trying to take Bakhmut.

I think that the issue of in terms of how the war goes for Russia from here on in is to what extent the Russian rank and file and the junior officer corps within the Russian military lose faith and confidence in the senior Russian military leadership, firstly, and secondly, in Putin's leadership, and whether they continue to want to fight this war.

It could be that you have a lot of conscripts that are poorly trained and basically thrown into the frontlines as cannon fodder that are sitting there and thinking, why are we even doing this? Why are we here?

If the -- not only the President is not prepared to stand firm, but also the Russian military leadership is incompetent, then you could see mass desertions, you could see mutinies and unwillingness of the part of the rank and file to follow orders. So that's where the vulnerability for Russia comes. It's not so much the loss of Wagner.

HOLMES: Yes, and of course, following on from Prigozhin saying that the reason for the war and those guys being in the trenches were bogus, so that's what's going to help morale.

Malcolm, it's always great to get your analysis. Malcolm Davis, thanks so much, Sir.

DAVIS: Thank you.

Still to come here on CNN NEWSROOM. Belarus' president has emerged as a dealmaker who helped stop the Wagner uprising. We'll have more on the Alexandr Lukashenko, one of Vladimir Putin's few close allies.

Also still to come, severe weather across the U.S. right now, a possible tornado in Indiana has left dozens of homes damaged. We'll have more on that after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:20:43]

HOLMES: Extreme weather was on full display Sunday just outside of Indianapolis. The National Weather Service says it's almost certainly a tornado. You can see it there. They'll make the official determination after a survey team reports back Monday.

Here's what it looked like for a fire company responding to reports of a collapsed building. Officials say at least 75 homes had been damaged as well. And apartment building under construction also destroyed. No reports of serious injuries, fortunately.

And in Texas, a temperature of 119 degrees Fahrenheit, that's around 48 degrees Celsius is the suspected cause of two deaths in Big Bend National Park. A 31-year-old was hiking with his stepsons in the extreme heat. Both the man and his 14-year-old stepson died, a 21- year-old survived.

Oppressive heat across the state is raising concerns about the stability of the power grid once again. San Antonio's man says cooling centers are open to help keep the vulnerable safe.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RON NIRENBERG, MAYOR OF SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS: It's a pretty brutal heatwave that we're going through. And it's been -- it hasn't led up for the last couple of weeks. It's gone into danger territory. So we have launched our Beat the Heat campaign and making sure that people know the resources that are available if they need to get into a cool place, you know, libraries and community centers. Senior centers are all open and encouraging folks, obviously, to be advised about the signs of heat related illness. But this is a very dangerous sort of heatwave. And with the humidity mixed in, there's really not even any relief in the evening period as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Some major cities in Texas are expected to reach a feels like temperature of 125 degrees Fahrenheit, 51 degrees Celsius.

CNN's Allison Chinchar with details from the CNN Weather Center.

ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Roughly a dozen states are already under either heat advisories or an excessive heat warnings. And in some instances, these are likely going to last for several days. That's because for some of these areas, they don't even peak temperature rise until Tuesday or even Wednesday of the upcoming week.

Take for example Houston going from 101 for the high on Monday up to 103 by Wednesday. Dallas going from 102 on Monday to 107, by the time we get to the middle portion of the upcoming week.

And for many of these areas, even though they peak, they really don't drop back down by the end of the week. Take Austin, for example. The average high this time of year is 94. We are going to spend every single one of the next seven days with those high temperatures getting into the triple digits.

And we're looking at over 35 cities breaking record temperatures at some point this week between Monday and Friday. Some of those communities possibly even having two or three days in a row of record breaking temperatures.

It's also not just the temperature we're concerned about. But also when you factor in that humidity you get what we call the feels like temperature. And in some of these areas, you're talking extremely high numbers. Corpus Christi, getting that feels like temperature all the way up to 110 on Tuesday. Dallas looking at a feels like temperature Tuesday up to 114 degrees.

Really, the only areas that are likely not going to see much of this heat, especially in the eastern half of the country is going to be places like the Midwest, the Northeast in the mid-Atlantic. And the reason for that is you have a lot of these showers and thunderstorms that will be moving into the area. Because of it also the potential for some severe storms, especially for cities like New York, Washington, D.C. stretching down through Atlanta. The main threats there will be damaging winds and the potential for some large hail as well.

HOLMES: More on our top story this hour, the armed insurrection by the head of the Wagner mercenary group of Yevgeny Prigozhin ended almost as quickly as it began, although a lot still remains uncertain about the situation.

This was the most serious challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule since he came to power. Some residents of Rostov-on-Don shared their views on the recent events.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): It was unexpected and somehow incomprehensible and stressful, of course, very stressful.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): There were very serious problems in the country and they need to be solved. People who can no longer tolerate it, they resort to such radical methods as Prigozhin.

[23:25:08]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): How can one in a situation where we are in a conflict in another country have an internal war as well?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Since the war began in Ukraine 16 months ago, Belarusian President, Alexandr Lukashenko, has been one of Vladimir Putin's few close allies, but their relationship and Lukashenko's dependency on Russia and Putin, goes back further.

CNN's Nic Robertson with more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Alexandr Lukashenko rules Belarus like a personal fiefdom president since its creation in 1994. He brooks little opposition.

Dubbed Europe's last dictator, Lukashenko has come to be defined by his fealty to his powerful neighbor, Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, transforming Belarus into a near vassal state.

Putin used Lukashenko and Belarus to help launch his 2022 invasion of Ukraine, driving tanks over Belarus' border towards Kyiv. And using Belarusian skies to bomb Ukrainians.

ALEXANDR LUKASHENKO, PRESIDENT OF BELARUS (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): We will never be enemies of Russia and we will never look disapprovingly at Russia. This is the country closest to us, the people closest to us. I think that while we're in power, we will stick to this tendency. If it were otherwise, there would be like in Ukraine.

ROBERTSON: Reality was the war deepened Lukashenko's already growing dependence on Putin. Lukashenko's flawed 2020 election victory, claiming 80 percent of the vote, described by Western governments as fraudulent, triggered nationwide protests. Get out, they shouted. He responded with force. The woman who ran against him, whose husband Lukashenko had already jailed, fled the country.

SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA, BELARUSIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: Thousands of people are in prisons for political motivated cases, hundreds of thousands had to flee Belarus because of repressions. And one day, we can wake up and see that Belarus has left as consolation prize for Putin.

ROBERTSON: The protests escalated. Lukashenko called on Putin for help, was bailed out, but at a cost.

Most recently, Putin tightening his grip, pledging to station nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Like Putin, Lukashenko is a product of his Soviet upbringing, his Belarus often seems stuck in that past. Unlike Russia, the KGB was never disbanded or even renamed.

Before entering politics, Lukashenko ran a collective farm later often had himself filmed as president digging up carrots or potatoes to show he never forgot his roots.

But behind the folksy farmer image look, a thug often turning to strong arm tactics. When a Belarusian dissident was a passenger on board a plane flying over the country in 2021, Belarus air traffic control called in a bomb threat, causing the plane to land and the man was arrested.

Like so many dictators, Lukashenko has an eye on the future, creating a dynasty grooming his young son, sometimes dressed in a military uniform for leadership, often taking him to meetings with world leaders. His intervention to broker and apparent truce in Russia and help Putin by hosting Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, suggests his own fate and his families is more intertwined with Russia than ever before.

Nic Robertson, CNN, London.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Still to come here on the program, Wagner mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, appears to have walked away from the insurrection unscathed, at least for now. A deep dive into what could be next for him after the break.

Also this, the U.S. Coast Guard convenes its highest level of investigation into the implosion of the Titan submersible. We have details on the probe, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:30:15]

HOLMES: Back to our top story now, there is no word on the whereabouts of the Wagner founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, after Russia quelled an armed mutiny by his private military company.

Under a Belarus brokered deal, Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia for the neighboring country and his troops ended their march to Moscow. Residents cheered and thanked Wagner mercenaries as they pulled out of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday. Earlier, Prigozhin had claimed they had taken the local military headquarters without firing a shot. Meanwhile, the streets of Moscow appeared back to normal on Sunday

after scenes of roadblocks and military vehicles earlier in the weekend. The Biden administration's top diplomat weighing in on the recent events in Russia.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[23:35:00]

BLINKEN: This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia, but what's so striking about it is its internal. The fact that you have from within someone directly questioning Putin's authority, directly questioning the premises that upon which he launched this aggression against Ukraine, that in and of itself is something very, very powerful. It adds cracks, where those go, when they get there too soon to say, but it clearly raises new questions that Putin has to deal with.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: But what's next for the Wagner Group now that the insurrection is over? CNN's Fred Pleitgen explains.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So there's still a lot that's unclear about what's going to be in store in the future for the Wagner private military company. One of the things, of course, that we've heard from the Kremlin is that they say that the fighters for Wagner, because of their military achievements on the battlefield, we'll be able to apply to join the Russian military.

That's something that's been in the cards for a while. There was a decree by the Russian defense minister, a couple of weeks ago, where he said that all of the private military companies needed to have contracts with the Russian army if they wanted to operate in the future.

Now, Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner private military company had always said if they were not going to do that, and that was, of course, also one of the things that escalated the feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership.

But all this is about a lot more than that. The private military company, Wagner, is one thing. But Yevgeny Prigozhin owns a lot more than that. He has media holdings, so like, for instance, the Internet Research Agency, which the U.S. says meddled heavily in the 2016 presidential election. Prigozhin was indicted for that. What happens to his media empire?

Then, of course, there's all his dealings in the Middle East, oil fields in Syria, in Africa, exploiting things like gold and diamonds also training local forces there. So there are definitely still a lot of questions about whether or not the Yevgeny Prigozhin, when he goes to exile in Belarus, will retain any sort of control over that, or if other solutions will be found by the Russian leadership. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Berlin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Let's get some perspective now on how this failed insurrection happened and the implications of it from Tom Nichols, staff writer at The Atlantic and author of "Our Worst Enemy: The Assault From Within on Modern Democracy." Tom is joining us from Middletown in Rhode Island. And good to see you, Tom, thanks for taking the time.

Prigozhin and his troops and we just saw it there were literally cheered in Rostov-on-Don, they were chanting, "Wagner, Wagner." They support his anti-elite message. How would Putin feel about the man he accused of treason essentially being publicly fated in that way? Humiliating, isn't it?

TOM NICHOLS, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC: It's absolutely humiliating, especially because you have a lot of them off the hook at the last minute. Putin may not know how much support Prigozhin and his cause really have. He may not know how much support Prigozhin has in the Russian military.

This is about more than just Prigozhin. This is about people and particularly in the Russian military being exhausted by this criminal excursion into Ukraine and, you know, to bash the bureaucracy, the defense ministry -- bureaucracy and to bash the guys in Moscow is going to be a pretty popular thing. And Prigozhin tapped into that in Rostov.

HOLMES: There was a senior Ukrainian official, Oleksiy Danilov. He's the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. And he said this, and I'll just put it up and read it to you. "Putin's regime has been stabbed in the back with a knife, if not instantly fatal, but certainly inevitable, although delayed in time. The countdown has begun."

Now, obviously, that's a political Ukrainian partisan viewpoint. But do you think there's validity in it that sooner or later the wounds of the last few days could be fatal to his leadership?

NICHOLS: They could be fatal. There are two mistakes to make about dictators. One is that they can never be toppled. And the other is that they are always right on the edge of being toppled.

This was -- you know, this was a pretty deep hit on Putin. This shatters the myth of invulnerability that was around him for so long in the eyes of the public. And I think in the eyes of at least some of the other elites in Moscow who now have evidence that Putin doesn't necessarily command all the loyalty that he may have wanted to project.

HOLMES: How do you think Putin's view of his legacy plays into this whole dynamic that, you know, that he's not ultimately remembered for being seen as caving into Prigozhin by doing the deal or failing in Ukraine? And how might that impact his next moves to perhaps looked up again in control not weakened by those concessions? [23:40:05]

NICHOLS: Yes, that's something I think everybody's worried about. Which way does he go? Does he have to cut more deals? Or, you know, does he end up getting forced out of power? Or does he do something really extreme and lash out against Ukraine or the West?

The problem with that second scenario is that if you're going to do that, you better have your ducks in a row, you better have the support of your military, and of key people around you in Moscow. And I think the thing he just found out is he may not have that.

I think for him, you know, this legacy problem, his legacy went up in smoke a year and a half ago. And he -- I mean, longer than that, but decisively when this this war began. And so he may just be thinking now like the criminal boss that he is, he may be just think -- be thinking in terms of raw survival at this point.

HOLMES: Yes. Hey, if Putin, he's very good, as we know it, getting rid of, or at the very least marginalizing potential opposition, but this is enormously premature, but in the vein of be careful what you wish for, if Putin were to be toppled, what kind of leader might emerge?

I mean, do you think Western governments will be preferring a weakened Putin to potentially an even harder line successor?

NICHOLS: That is always a dangerous game to play, which is why governments -- you notice that the United States and NATO, you know, just stayed out of this one, and said, you know, this is an internal affair of Russia. It's very dangerous game to play to say that, you know, this guy is going to be better than the next guy or the last guy.

There are going to be people who have -- I mean, Prigozhin was one of them that, you know, his big beef with Putin is, he's not being fascist enough. He's not being violent enough. And there are people in Moscow who feel that way.

So, you know, there -- it's -- we may not know who the successor. We may not yet see on the horizon who the successor to Putin is. But I think at this point, there's no point in handicapping that --

HOLMES: Yes.

NICHOLS: -- because it's just unknowable.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. I wanted to ask you too on people who cross Putin usually end up in jail or perhaps poisoned, or even falling out of a window by accident, certainly not sent off to retirement in another country. Do you think Prigozhin is going to be looking over his shoulder forever now? However long forever is?

NICHOLS: Yes, yes. Well, you know, that's a great question. Because, you know, I assume part of this deal that Lukashenko was sent to take terms, because I assume he did this on Putin's instructions, was to say, look, I'll guarantee your safety. So, you know, Lukashenko has a vested interest in that now because he's kind of put his word on the line. It depends on maybe, and again, you know, we just -- there's so much in flux right now. But I suppose one possibility is depends on what Prigozhin does. And if he goes to Minsk, and he starts attacking Putin and the government and the Ministry of Defense again, you know, we joke about windows and poison, but remember, some of Putin's opponents have just been shot right in the street.

HOLMES: Yes.

NICHOLS: -- assassinated, you know, outright. And that could happen as well. So this is all a very weird situation. It takes Prigozhin out of the equation in or near Moscow, which I think had to be Putin's first order of business, again, until he figures out who's really on his side.

HOLMES: Yes. There's just -- it's just one of those stories where there's just so much we do not know. Tom, great to have you on. Tom Nichols, thanks so much.

NICHOLS: Thank you.

HOLMES: Coming up here on the program. It looks like Russia's plans to build a new embassy in Australia's capital a dead in the water. We'll have more on a diplomatic standoff, next.

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[23:45:40]

HOLMES: U.S. Coast Guard says it has convened a Marine Board of Investigation its top investigative body to look into the fatal implosion of the Titan submersible. Officials say their priority is to, quote, recover items from the sea floor and determined the cause of the disaster which killed all five people on board.

CNN's Gloria Pazmino has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Now the Marine Board of Investigation is the highest level of investigation that the U.S. Coast Guard can conduct regarding any kind of maritime incident. And what it will allow is for the Coast Guard to leverage all of its resources, including working with international partners.

Now, this is a multi-step process. And right now, they are in the first phase, which is to gather evidence. They've had the Odysseus 6K out at the bottom of the ocean looking for pieces of the vessel, looking to recover more pieces of evidence.

Once that's completed, they will hold a public hearing, collect more testimony and more evidence. And then they will continue this investigation. I want you to listen from public officials talking about what's next in the process. JASON NEUBAUER, U.S. COAST GUARD: During the course of the MBI, the board will first and primarily work to determine the cause of this marine casualty and the five associated deaths. The MBI, however, is also responsible for accountability aspects of the incident. And it can make recommendations to the proper authorities to pursue civil or criminal sanctions as necessary.

[23:50:15]

PAZMINO: Now, any kind of subsequent enforcement will have to be done after a separate investigation.

And just another important note here is that the Marine Board of Investigation is working with the U.S., the U.K., and France. And that, of course, reflects the nationalities of the five people who were onboard of the vessel. So you can see this sort of multinational effort to try and bring some closure to these families.

In fact, the Rear Admiral of the Coast Guard mentioned he had visited St. John's, where we are right now, to meet with some of the family members that arrived back to port yesterday.

Now, after this investigation is concluded, they will submit a report. And the idea here is to understand what happened, but also to make sure that safety protocols for deep-sea submersible expeditions are improved so that nothing like this happens again.

Reporting in Newfoundland. Gloria Pazmino, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: And now to a diplomatic standoff in Australia's capital. Russia has just lost its appeal to build a new embassy, a stone's throw from Australia's parliament building. Russian diplomats had challenged legislation to prevent Russia from building on that land since Australia claimed it could provide a national security threat.

CNN's Angus Watson joins me now live from Sydney. Angus, when it comes -- there was a squatting diplomat out there at one point. And the Australian Prime Minister joked in various Australian style that, you know, a bloke standing in the cold on a bit of grass in Canberra is not a threat to our national security.

But earlier this year, Australia expelled what it called a hive of foreign spies working in the capital. So the government is not taking any chances.

ANGUS WATSON, CNN PRODUCER : That's right, Michael. The Australian government doesn't take any chances, not just on its own national security but, of course, because Australia is a member of the intelligence sharing network, Five Eyes, that also includes the U.S., U.K., Canada, and New Zealand. So Australia is privy to some of the West's top secrets and needs to protect them.

So when Australia's own spy agency informed the Australian government that there was a hive of spies working in Canberra, posing as diplomats back in February, the Australian government expelled them immediately.

Now, the Australian government didn't break protocol by accusing Russia of running this spy ring. But that is what was established by local media reported widely at the time. So it was that -- those spy agencies, the Australian ones that this time advised the Australian government that the build of a Russian diplomatic compound, a stone's throw, as it was described from Australia's Parliament House, was a national security threat.

And the Australian government again moved quickly last week legislating to give them the power to evict Russia from the site. The Russians reacted badly. They called Australia Russophobic. And they took the matter to the High Court.

Today, the High Court said that Australia did have the right to evict Russia. Here is some of what the Australian Prime Minister had to say today. He mentioned this squatter who since last week, has refused to leave the site. He has diplomatic immunity again. So here's what Anthony Albanese had to say earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTHONY ALBANESE, PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA: Look, Russia will never ever build its embassy on that site. We respect the rule of law. Russia hasn't had a great record of respecting the rule of law lately, whether it be domestically, the way that it behaves towards its own citizens, or whether that be its abrogation of international law.

We are very confident of our position. We expected Russia to react badly. We had this rather bizarre demonstration outside Kirribilli house on Saturday by pro-Russian demonstrators. I wasn't even there. But I think we anticipated this. We're very confident of our position.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: So the prime minister that mentioning this protest is small pro-Putin protests outside his official residence just a short way from where I am in Sydney on Saturday, the same day that Yevgeny Prigozhin was mounting his coup, his potential coup in Russia.

Now that just goes to show how badly the West's relationship with Russia has fallen in the last few years perhaps that's underscored by Australia's today announcement of new military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Michael?

[23:55:12]

HOLMES: All right. A great wrap-up there. Angus Watson on beautiful Sydney Harbour. Thank you.

Now, security forces are gearing up as the Hajj gets underway in Saudi Arabia. And it could be one for the record books. More than two million Muslims from around the world are expected to take part this year, which could break attendance records. But along with the crowds, the heat will also be a factor with temperatures nearing 45 degrees Celsius or around 110 Fahrenheit. Saudi authorities say thousands of paramedics are on standby and health workers will be able to treat the cases of heatstroke, dehydration and exhaustion that might happen.

The Hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam. Muslims undertake it at least once in their lives if they have the means.

Thanks for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes. You can follow me on Twitter and Instagram @holmesCNN. Do stick around. My friend and colleague, John Vause, picks up our coverage after a break.

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