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Insurrection Led by Yevgeny Prigozhin Comes to Abrupt End; Chaos and Disorder in Russia Could Impact Ukraine War; Putin's Power Tested After Armed Uprising; What the Russian People Know About Wagner's Revolt; White House Continues to Monitor Situation in Russia. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[00:00:53]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to our viewers here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes. Appreciate your company, and we begin with a dramatic turn of events in Russia.

At this hour Moscow is calm. Highway restrictions across the country are lifted and an insurrection led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenaries came to an end as suddenly as it started.

The Kremlin said on Saturday cut a deal with him to stop the march of these forces towards Moscow. It was the most serious threat to President Vladimir Putin's rule in decades. Under the deal the Kremlin says Wagner troops will not face any legal action but they'll sign new contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry, while Moscow will drop its charges against Prigozhin who will then go to Belarus. Wagner's leader says he agreed to that in order to avoid bloodshed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, HEAD OF WAGNER GROUP (through translator): Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: The Kremlin says it doesn't know where Prigozhin is right now. This is video of people cheering as he left Rostov-on-Don where his troops seized military facilities on Saturday. Officials now tell CNN that U.S. intelligence believes Prigozhin was planning to directly challenge Russia's military leadership for a while. Meanwhile, Washington did not see any change in Russia's nuclear posture during the turmoil.

Ivan Watson continues to monitor developments in Russia. He joins me now from Hong Kong.

So tell us more about where things stand now because in the last day or so, if that's an indicator, things can be different in a few hours from now.

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, for now, Michael, the Russian state media is reporting that the highways leading north to Moscow are being reopened. These are highways that state television themselves reported how Russian officials were trying to cut them off if not destroying the pavement itself, and placing trucks full of sand in the way as an effort to try to block the convoy of Wagner mercenaries from reaching the Russian capital.

As for the counterterrorism measures, the stricter security measures that have been imposed in Moscow, those reportedly are still in place. Then there is the bigger question of just digesting the mind-boggling turn of events that have taken place over the course of the weekend. And that is just beginning to happen.

For example, I was just listening to a recording from one of the top public propagandists, Vladimir Solovyov, who on his program was saying he was basically heartbroken seeing men that he described as heroes, the Wagner mercenaries who've been fighting in Ukraine, who were on the verge of a fratricidal civil war against the Russian armed forces and the Russian state in Russia.

And he was trying to understand how to process this and went on to concede that lives had been lost during the dramatic events of Saturday. Helicopter pilots and pilots. Helicopter crews and pilots, he said, died. And we know that Prigozhin himself claimed responsibility for shooting down at least one helicopter. There were reports coming from Russian military blogs of several other aircraft also being shot down by the mercenaries.

The Kremlin says it will press no charges against Prigozhin and his forces. But lives again have been lost and how will this be dealt with? Another big question here, Michael, that all of Russia saw that armed units could just go charging into Russia and travel hundreds and hundreds of kilometers up the roads unimpeded. What does that say about the state of national security in Russia today?

[00:05:03]

All questions to be considered. And that really say something and have hurt the credibility and reputation of the Russian state -- Michael.

HOLMES: And Ivan, I wanted to ask your thoughts on how we view the role of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus in all of this. A man, you know, largely seen as a tool of Putin, being the dealmaker on the surface of it. How does that dynamic played into all of this?

WATSON: Right. Lukashenko for years has been viewed as a junior partner of Vladimir Putin. And maybe some harsher words that may come out there as well. Even more so over the course of the last year and a half. And since the Russian security forces helped Lukashenko face down his own uprising after very contentious elections that he was accused of rigging.

So now out of the blue, in the midst of the biggest challenge and potential power struggle to face Vladimir Putin, which he compared to the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, he himself, when addressing the nation on Saturday, out of the blue, Lukashenko apparently, according to the Kremlin, brokers a peace deal with Prigozhin that ends the specter of bloodshed inside Russia.

We don't know the details of it. We don't know what kind of situation Prigozhin might be under if and when he does get to Belarus. Will he continue to fire his rhetorical broadsides against the Russian defense minister, against the chief of general staff in Russia? Will he continue to have command and control over the Wagner mercenary forces? That we don't know. But the Kremlin alleges or claims that Lukashenko came up with this brilliant solution to overt bloodshed in Russia.

So we'll just have to watch and see where that goes next. And just an additional little piece of context in the last month, Russia has announced that it will be moving nuclear weapons on to Belarusian soil as part of an agreement with Belarus.

HOLMES: Yes, indeed. Ivan Watson, great work, following it all for us there. Appreciate it.

Joining me now is Masha Gessen, a staff writer for the "New Yorker" and the author of "Surviving Autocracy."

Great to have your voice on this, Masha. So, you know, Putin called what Prigozhin did an insurrection. He spoke of being stabbed in the back. How damaged do you think Putin is? No matter what the apparent deal done is with the man who brought that about, is his foundation fractured?

MASHA GESSEN, STAFF WRITER, THE NEW YORKER: Well, we can't tell if it's fractured until it's actually -- the whole (INAUDIBLE) actually collapses. But I think this is huge. This is the first real challenge to Putin's monopoly on political action and Putin's monopoly on force at the same time that we have seen in 23 years. The 23 years that Putin has been in power, right. And especially in the last few years, there's been nobody else speaking in public and being able to take political action, not to mention.

So, even just people of Russia having seen that this is possible and that it is possible to get Putin to react to it, more or less in real time, is huge. Now does that mean that the Putin regime will end before Putin dies, we have no idea, right. But it does mean that it is in crisis.

HOLMES: You know Russia and Russians very well. I mean, this isn't 1991 when "Swan Lake" played on TV when the coup went on. People know more these days about what's going on. What will people be thinking right now? Do you have any sense of that, how much they would know?

GESSEN: Actually I think people know a lot less than they did in 1991.

HOLMES: Really?

GESSEN: In 1991, there was a vibrant media scene, and you know, quite a lot of information flow. These days, you know, the information regime is extremely restrictive. But it could of course become more restrictive and that's probably what Putin is going to have to do. I mean, he is going to have to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again. And the only way for him to do that is to really crack down on information in Russia. And that probably means cutting Russia off from the internet.

HOLMES: When it comes to, you know, the public going back to that again, I mean, this time, the war, you know, literally came home for Russians and not by Ukrainians. It was Russians bringing the war to Russian soil. Is that shocking imagery or do you think that's also, you know, part of the noise in a way for Russians?

GESSEN: No, that's definitely shocking imagery. I mean, the tanks in the streets of Rostov, the tank that was wedged in the gate of the circus in Rostov.

[00:10:12]

Just, you know, the way you could see on Telegram channels, people posting footage of armed vehicles whether Prigozhin's armed vehicles or the Ministry of Defenses, right, the president's armed vehicles traveling up and down roads right outside of Moscow. All of this was clearly shaking people up and feeling extreme to them.

HOLMES: What is your sense of the role of Lukashenko in Belarus sort of basically while being portrayed as some sort of broker of a deal, although I mean that's hard to imagine? What do you make of his role in this and the notion of Prigozhin going to Belarus to retire seems a bit farfetched?

GESSEN: I don't believe in any of that for a second. You know, I'm not sure -- you know, there's a couple of things that again I try not to speculate. But there are a couple of things that we do know. We know that Belarus is not a sovereign state in any meaningful sense of the word. It has really been dominated by Russia especially in the last almost three years since the protesting in Belarus in August, 2020.

So it's not like Prigozhin has gone into exile. It is possible that he agreed to be on another country's territory, just to kind of help law enforcement save face. But this is clearly no kind of permanent solution. I think it's entirely possible that Prigozhin himself wanted the Ukrainian world. He wants to go back to Africa or to concentrate his troops in Africa where he actually has a thriving mercenary business, especially in Central Africa.

That is a huge loss for Putin on the Ukrainian front. These were his literal shock troops. And so while Ukraine is mounting his counteroffensive it is losing this aggressive force and this bottomless source of counter fodder that's significant.

HOLMES: You know how it works better than me in Russia. Does the decline of a leader take time?

GESSEN: In totalitarian societies, usually the decline of a leader does not take time. Usually it happens suddenly. It seems that this time it didn't happen. Right? So I don't think what we are going to be observing is some slow, gradual loss of power. I think we're going to be observing next is an intense crackdown that may or may not succeed in getting things under control. But whatever happens next is going to be drastic.

HOLMES: Do the people then rise up? Or can you not see that happening? Popular protests?

GESSEN: The regime is not going to be brought down by popular protests. The regime can only be brought down by people who are well- armed.

HOLMES: Yes. Fascinating analysis, as always. Marsha Gessen, thanks so much. A pleasure.

GESSEN: Thank you.

HOLMES: While speaking to capitalize on the chaos in Russia, the Ukrainian military launched multiple simultaneous counteroffensives on Saturday. According to Ukraine's deputy defense minister, the fighting took place in several cities and towns in the east including Bakhmut saying, quote, "There is progress in all directions," but not providing further details. She also acknowledged heavy fighting in southern Ukraine where Russian forces are trying to halt Ukrainian advances.

The former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, says the crisis in Moscow will definitely have an impact on the battlefield as it is demoralizing for the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AMB. JOHN E. HERBST, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE: It was very clear that he was spooked. And we can understand why he was spooked because he launched an unpopular war. Unpopular even among the Russian elites. And here you had a man who was considered something of a hero for being more successful on the battlefield in Ukraine. Sharply criticized in the reasons for going to war and demonstrating he has his own independent power.

This is not a 24-hour blip. It's like Prigozhin is the person who looked behind the screen at the "Wizard of Oz" and saw the great and terrible Oz was just this little frightened man. Putin has been diminished for all time by this affair. He declared what Prigozhin has done as treachery.

[00:15:03]

Yet now there seems to be some sort of understanding where Prigozhin goes back to doing what he was doing. So Prigozhin has emerged as a second source of power in Russia, who cannot be controlled by the strongman of the Kremlin. That's remarkable. And as for the impact on the battlefield, certainly this is demoralizing to Russian troops.

But of course they've been demoralized by their terrible treatment and the bad generalship, and Ukraine's success with its counteroffensive last year. And, of course, when Wagner pulled out its forces after they took Bakhmut, although not taking it very well, and the Ukrainians understand this.

So I suspect this will add a little bit of impetus to a counteroffensive which has not gone badly but has not gone as well as at least some people expected.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: That was John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

Well, there is much more CNN coverage ahead on the Russia situation. We will look into the impact the crisis could have on the war in Ukraine.

You're watching CNN NEWSROOM. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: The armed insurrection orchestrated by Yevgeny Prigozhin ended abruptly on Saturday as the Kremlin said the mercenary leader agreed to leave Russia and go to Belarus.

CNN's Ben Wedeman filed this report.

[00:20:01]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What a long, strange day it's been starting early with Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claiming to have seized critical military facilities in the city of Rostov-on-Don, including the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District, the strategic command center for much of Russia's forces in eastern and southern Ukraine.

For Ukraine, it seemed the enemy was turning upon himself that the ripples of chaos and disorder in Russia would reach the frontlines here. Ukrainian officials issued statements to the effect that this was the beginning of the collapse of Russia of a civil war, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even suggesting that Putin was on the run.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WEDEMAN: Wherever he was, everything changed when it was announced that Prigozhin had agreed to stop his march on Moscow and return to base. Saturday evening, Kyiv announced gains in a series of offensives around the now Russian occupied town of Bakhmut. But when all is said and done, the sound and fury of Prigozhin's brief insurrection came to naught. (END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Ben Wedeman reporting there.

Ukrainians appeared to be pleased as they watch the standoff unfold between the Kremlin and Wagner mercenaries. Some residents in the war- torn city of Kyiv even said they were enjoying the chaos.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): I enjoy what is happening out of Russia. The inevitable conflict between Prigozhin and Putin was expected. I don't know what may come out of it, but I wish for them to shoot each other and die.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): They started the war. They got it back. The harder you press the spring, the harder it shoots. The situation pressed to such extent in Russia that it became hopeless. I consider what happened a natural event. It will influence the war, but I think it will not be over in a day. We will have to endure a bit. Russia will be in flames.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: So where then is Yevgeny Prigozhin? The Kremlin says it has no idea where the Wagner leader is after he abruptly called off his threatened insurrection. We'll have the latest on what we know when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:26:12]

HOLMES: And welcome back to our viewers here in the United States and around the world. I'm Michael Holmes, you're watching CNN NEWSROOM.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's armed insurrection in Russia and the mere hours into one of the most audacious challenges to Vladimir Putin's authority ever witnessed. And while this showdown may have been defused for now, the threat to Putin's regime may be far from over. The Wagner leader showed just how easily he could take over a major Russian military installation and city and then send columns of troops racing towards Moscow.

Some Wagner mercenaries were halfway to the capital when Prigozhin abruptly ordered them back. A personal appeal by the president of Belarus, a close Putin ally, is credited with persuading Prigozhin to call off his rebellion. Chechnya's leader, a staunch Putin ally, is slamming Yevgeny Prigozhin accusing him of arrogance and of, quote, "missing business ambitions with matters of national importance."

(INAUDIBLE) posting on the Telegram Saturday saying extreme measures would have been needed to stop Wagner's rebellion which could have led to bloodshed. Chechen state media reported early on Saturday that 3,000 of its fighters were deployed, ready to back up Russia's president if needed. Meanwhile, Sergei Markov, a close ally of the Russian president, says

it was not a good idea for the Wagner chief to plan a march to Moscow as Putin has strong support in the capital.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SERGEI MARKOV, FORMER RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT MEMBER: They look at Moscow and expected some fighting in the city. And are also has a number of flight, ticket for Moscow now almost a zero. A lot of people decided to leave the capital of Russia. So it is good news. But at the same time, I'm going to expect that some kind of negotiations should be because both sides appeared to be in the deadlock.

If for example, Prigozhin, come to Moscow what in fact he can get. The leadership in Russia, Vladimir Putin, no chance because Vladimir Putin's popularity now is something about 80 percent. And everybody, everybody, the deputies, everybody expressed his support to Vladimir Putin. But also on another hand, for Vladimir Putin, to crash by military waste Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Groups, it's a very bad solution because Wagner Partner Group is the best private army in the world. It's needed on the frontline in Ukraine.

And also to crash them, Vladimir Putin will have to take a lot of Russian troops on the Ukrainian floor which can open that window, the door for the Ukrainian army counteroffensive. So it was a very difficult situation. The solution has been found. And it's a little bit natural solution. Only psychological private ambitions can undermine this possibility of the deal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And my colleague Paula Newton joins me now from Ottawa in Canada.

It's interesting, Paula, and you know Russia well, Putin has always been weary, trusting few people in his orbit. I mean, having an ally do this presumably won't lessen that in him. How does all of that play into the Kremlin's decision to restrict news access?

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it was interesting. And obviously even though the Kremlin has tried to keep control of any kind of opposition to its invasion to Ukraine, what happened Friday night was certainly new in terms of what Russia is prepared to do.

[00:30:12]

So, Google News, sites like Google News were restricted. That's according to Net Blocks that started Friday night. And if you spoke to Russians anecdotally, they could see that that was happening. Now that's not to say that if Russians go looking for that kind of news, they can't find it, Michael. They can and they do. I think it's more of a case of what they're prepared to listen to. I mean, state TV at one point was running some type of a bulletin. They came in, had that dramatic speech from Putin. But the rest of the time was running things like entertainment. And it's interesting here that again if anyone in Russia wanted to go

look for the information on this, they would have found it, they might just have to work a little harder to find it. Having said that, it is going to be interesting to see in the next few days and weeks if the Kremlin moves to try and restrict that access further.

And I do want to point out that while you may be able to find the information about what's going on, whether it's in Ukraine or what happened in the last 48 hours, you're going to find it on the internet, commenting on it and have it showing in any opposition, whatsoever, the Vladimir Putin and the operation in Ukraine, that has landed many people with certainly inquiries and even prison terms -- Michael.

HOLMES: Yes. Given your own knowledge of the country and how the politics works, is Putin likely mortally wounded in the political sense? Perhaps not now. Maybe months, even a year or two down the line. Are there chinks in his armor?

NEWTON: I think definitely this is unprecedented in terms of the stranglehold that Putin has had on the country for well over two decades. But also remember an entire generation, so many of those, Michael, fighting right now in the war in Ukraine have never known another leader other than Vladimir Putin, even though he was prime minister for a significant amount of time.

What is important now is the fact that those in the Russian elite especially will be looking at him and wondering what have you done and is it time to replace you as a leader? You know as well as anyone, Michael, the amount of money that has been made by the Russian elites at Putin's knee, this invasion of Ukraine, the war has cost them dearly as well.

And when they see this debacle with Prigozhin today they will wonder to themselves, is it time to try and promote a new leader? Never has Vladimir Putin had this kind of a challenge to him. And I want to point out one other thing. You know, when I was in Russia, we were covering the conflict in Chechnya. Putin had come to power. And the Russians, while they understood that young men were dying in Chechnya and the brutal nature of the war being prosecuted there, they had a bargain with Putin that he would keep things very calm.

It was not a calm day in many cities and towns throughout Russia today. And they are wondering the more that this conflict in Ukraine inches closer to the Russian doorstep, they too will wonder whether or not Vladimir Putin is the leader for them.

I want to caution, though, it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to see Russians in the streets anytime soon.

HOLMES: Yes. Yes, Paula. Good to see you, my friend. Paula Newton there in Ottawa.

Now, in Washington, there has been little said publicly about Prigozhin's gambit. But senior U.S. officials have been on the phones with allies since it began. The White House says the president and vice president are getting regular updates on the situation. That Mr. Biden had been in touch with the leaders of the U.K., France and Germany.

The common theme of all this high-level contracts has been to stress Washington's unwavering support for Ukraine no matter how things play out in Moscow.

CNN's Kevin Liptak joins me now from Washington with the latest from there.

So tell us more, Kevin, about the reaction there. One presumes the same sort of bemusement at what happened over the last 24 hours, as everywhere else.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think there was a little bit of that, but I think at the same time, you know, officials at the White House and at the Pentagon are watching this unrest in a country that has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. And there is concern about what happens next. And certainly the biggest question I think for officials at the White House has been how does this affect the war in Ukraine because on its face, certainly a distracted Vladimir Putin would probably be fairly good for the Ukrainians.

But on the flipside, there is a question among President Biden's aides, among senior military officials, what happens if Putin lashes out, if he feels like he's backed into a corner, and feels like he needs to demonstrate strength. And I think that is part of what's informing the strategy that you're seeing in Washington but also in European capitals at not really commenting on the situation at all.

In fact, leaders really do want to avoid the appearance that they are putting their fingers on the scale here, really trying to avoid the appearance that President Putin could use as a pretext for accusing this all of being an American plot, which is a playbook of his in the past.

[00:35:14]

And so when the president did get on the phone earlier today with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the German chancellor Olaf Scholtz, and the British prime minister Rishi Sunak, that is something I'm told that they did come to an agreement on which is that they wouldn't, you know, so-called spike the football. They wouldn't really try and make this into sort of a bigger deal. They would reaffirm their support for Ukraine but they wouldn't necessarily comment directly on the incident that you were seeing on the ground there.

And so that is how this has played out over the course of the day here. President Biden really sort of kept to his schedule. He was a little late but he did depart for Camp David, the presidential retreat. And that is where he is spending the weekend certainly getting continuous updates as the day goes on.

HOLMES: Yes. And tell us more. I mean, the reporting that U.S. intel saw signs of Prigozhin. That his move was coming. Tell us more about that. LIPTAK: Yes. This has been something that has been a topic of interest

for American intelligence agencies for quite a long time, really dating back even to January when officials looked at the intelligence and saw what they called this power struggle between the head of the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense. And of course they kept monitoring that over the last several months or so.

And this week, U.S. intelligence officials did brief the White House, the Pentagon, and also a significant member of Congress about these preparations that the Wagner Group had and was taking to take these steps that he eventually did take.

Now I think in the White House, it has never really been at the forefront of their intelligence that President Putin could somehow lose power because of what is happening in Ukraine. At the same time, there are always these contingency plans for whatever may happen on the ground there. But it is interesting that they did see this coming sort of step-by-step. Eventually, it happens today.

But I think that there was some surprise at how quickly it escalated over the course of the day. And you saw that in this scramble. A number of American officials have been planning to travel overseas, including the Joint Chiefs chairman Mark Milley, also the president's National Security adviser, Jake Sullivan. They both canceled those trips to stay back in Washington and in fact Jake Sullivan is up at Camp David with the president this weekend. So there was something of a scramble, even though they saw -- there were indications that this could happen in their intelligence over the last week or so -- Michael.

HOLMES: All right, Kevin, appreciate it. Kevin Liptak there in Washington for us.

Now the insurrection led by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly, as we've just been discussing, been long in the making.

Coming up, a word from the U.S. intelligence about how he has been working a while on his challenge to Russia's military leaders. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:41:49]

HOLMES: All right. A quick update on our developing story out of Russia, where the mercenary led insurrection appeared to come to a sudden end. Moscow says it doesn't really know where Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is right now.

What you're seeing there is video of him being cheered on as he left Rostov-on-Don after cutting a deal with the Kremlin to end his insurrection. Officials now tell CNN the U.S. intelligence believes he was planning his revolt for a while and that Washington didn't see any change in Russia's nuclear posture while the events played out.

Ukraine's president says the insurrection said a lot about the Kremlin's grip on power or lack of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENSKYY (through translator): Today is the day where there should definitely be no silence. And we definitely need leadership. Today the world saw the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory which is fully loaded with weapons.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And Luke Harding is the foreign correspondent for "The Guardian" and author of the book, "Invasion: The Inside Story of Russia's Bloody War and Ukraine's Fight for Survival." He joins me now from Kyiv.

And thanks for doing so. Prigozhin has survived a long time by being reactionary. But also tactical. I mean, it's unlikely he got up on Friday and said I'm going to Moscow. What to you was his plan here, and still might be frankly from Belarus?

LUKE HARDING, FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT, THE GUARDIAN: Yes, I mean, it's been a surreal 24 hours, Michael, with Prigozhin leading his troops up the hill and then back down again. I mean (INAUDIBLE) were most confused. But (INAUDIBLE) Gerasimov, he doesn't seem to have got that. But he is still very much in the game. And my sense is that actually this is not a (INAUDIBLE). It's been incredibly humiliating for Vladimir Putin. I think he's at the weakest he's been probably since the start of his presidency. (INAUDIBLE) as the kind of Prigozhin and an actual faltering President Vladimir Putin. It's very strange and something has to give.

HOLMES: Yes, well, your signal dropped out a couple of times during that answer but we got the gist of it. You were talking about Putin perhaps being weakened by what's going on. I mean, the moves by Prigozhin but then also doing a deal with a man he'd accused of insurrection, filed charges against, basically called him a traitor. How does that make Putin look to then, you know, let him go?

HARDING: It makes Putin look incredibly weak. I mean I do think it's been a very humiliating episode for Putin. And almost the West always that Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, was the person who brokered this supposedly deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin, which saw Prigozhin pull out and turn back.

[00:45:10]

I mean, there are also unconfirmed reports yesterday that Putin fled Moscow on his personal (INAUDIBLE) And, you know, a clear contrast with Zelenskyy, who's at the top of your -- top list now who of course stayed in Kyiv in February of last year as Russian forces closed in. So I mean, we don't know where the story goes from here. But I think Putin is weaker and it's really been really disastrous for him.

HOLMES: Yes. Is Prigozhin the type to, you know, go to Belarus and going to quiet retirement? Or do you think we've seen act one of a multi-act play?

HARDING: I mean, I think there are going to be more bodies on the stage in this particular -- I mean to my mind, there's a question mark as to whether Prigozhin can survive this. I mean, we don't know the nature of the deal that he struck with the Kremlin. But clearly, the longer he is there, you just have to look at the pictures from Rostov when he left, while he's being cheered by crowds.

I mean, he is a pretender, He is a rival. He is a symbol of Putin's inability to get a grip on the situation. And look, you know as well as I do, there is no point of being predictive in a fast-changing situation, but I will be surprised if Prigozhin is still alive by the end of this year.

HOLMES: Yes, people fall out of windows, don't they? You're there in Kyiv. You have a situation in Ukraine where Wagner forces who, let's face it, with all their brutality we're the most effective forces really fighting there. Chechen forces were diverted to help Putin. Other resources had to be deployed. How might this impact the actual war, the frontlines?

HARDING: Well, I mean, you are right. I mean Wagner wear the most disciplined, the most able, the most competent unit among Russian forces who've been fighting. I mean, they were for months grinding away in Bakhmut city in the east which they eventually took. Now they're gone. I mean I think Wagner really no longer exists as the kind of independent entity as a mercenary force. So those 25,000 fighters will -- some of them will join the regular army, but others will go elsewhere.

This is a blow. Now I don't think it's going to be easy for Ukrainian forces to go forward, but I think the counteroffensive which started pretty slowly if we're honest a couple of weeks ago, now has a greater chance of gaining momentum, of breaking through Russian lines, and actually taking back some more territory this summer which is crucial to Ukraine and also crucial for Ukraine's Western partners, the U.S., the U.K., who've been supplying the Ukrainian army with weapons and the tanks.

HOLMES: Yes. And you will be there covering it, Luke. Good to see you. Luke Harding there in Kyiv for us. Appreciate it.

All right, up next on the program, it has been a tumultuous 24 hours in Russia as we've been discussing. We'll show you how everyday Russians feel about Prigozhin's abruptly ended insurrection. That's when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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HOLMES: A quick recap now on our top story. The abrupt end of a dramatic armed insurrection in Russia. The streets of Moscow calm right now after Wagner paramilitary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and head to Belarus, thanks to a deal brokered by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. And this video is of Prigozhin leaving military headquarters of

Rostov-on-Don in Southern Russia, although we don't know where he is right now. In return Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Russia will drop the criminal case against him and he says Wagner fighters who marched towards Moscow will face no legal action and can sign contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry.

The rebellion represented a huge threat to Vladimir Putin's grip on power and, according to Ukraine's president, it even frightened him.

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ZELENSKYY (through translator): I will say it in Russian. The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere. Not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow. He calls somewhere and asks for something. He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat. All evil, all losses, all hatred. He himself who spreads it and the longer he can run between his bunkers, the more you will all lose. Everyone who is connected with Russia.

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HOLMES: The Wagner insurrection was over less than 24 hours after it began. Listen now to how some Russians feel about the recent developments which shook their country.

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ALEXANDER, MOSCOW RESIDENT (through translator): I think those people should meet and talk. We are one country and must fight together against an external enemy, and internal quarrels are totally inappropriate.

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HOLMES: One Russian opposed to the Putin government says his organization was following the abruptly ending insurrection with great interest.

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ALEXEI BARANOVSKLY, REPRESENTATIVE OF POLITICAL WING OF FREEDOM OF RUSSIA LEGION: The more Putinists, (INAUDIBLE), Prigozhinites, FSB, and the police kill each other, the better, the less work we will have. It is also good for Ukraine. It looks like a nice time to strengthen the counteroffensive. But it is for the military leadership to decide how to act in such circumstances.

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HOLMES: One retired U.S. general said that Prigozhin's attempted insurrection divided Russians and now they're arguing publicly. He says another consequence is that Putin might have lost control of the flow of information inside Russia. Earlier, CNN's Christiane Amanpour interviewed Nina Khrushcheva, a

professor of international affairs and great granddaughter of former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

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He spoke about the armed uprising in Russia and raised serious questions about Vladimir Putin's grip on power. Here's some of what she said.

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NINA KHRUSHCHEVA, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, THE NEW SCHOOL: For the Putin entourage, and we've seen it. That is not a mystery that things are going badly. That is not a mystery that he's not as strong as he appears to be or says that he is. It is more important that he is there because none of them, or so it appears, have enough power to take over and undermine the rest.

So if somebody goes up, somebody goes down. And those who go down cannot afford to go down. So that has been going on. And I think that's kind of Prigozhin and his -- and I'm sure the people behind him, close to Putin, who was able to take advantage of.

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HOLMES: That was Nina Khrushcheva speaking earlier with Christiane Amanpour.

Thanks for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes. You can follow me pm Twitter and Instagram at @HolmesCNN. Stick around, I'll be back with more CNN NEWSROOM after a short break.

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