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Russia's Insurrection Comes to Abrupt End; Prigozhin Cuts Deal with Kremlin; Charges on Prigozhin Dropped; Prigozhin will be Going to Belarus; Moscow Doesn't Know Where Prigozhin is; Interview with USC Director of Central European Studies Robert English; Putin and Prigozhin Had Close Ties Before Uprising; White House Continuous to Monitor Situation in Russia; Joints Chief Chairman Milley Postpones Trip to Middle East; Kremlin: Prigozhin's Whereabouts Unknown; Three Killed in Kyiv After Russian Missile Attack; Interview with The New Yorker Staff Writer Masha Gessen; U.S. Intelligence on Prigozhin Insurrection; Lukashenko Brokered Deal with Prigozhin; Yevgeny Prigozhin's History. Aired 1-2a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:00:00]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers watching us here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes. Appreciate your company.

And we begin, of course, with the dramatic turn of events in Russia. At this hour, Moscow is calm, as you can see there. Traffic restrictions still in place on a major highway in Moscow and the Tula region, that's happening because of an insurrection led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenaries, that came to an end as suddenly as it started.

On Saturday, the Kremlin said it cut a deal with Wagner leader, Prigozhin, to stop the march of his forces to Moscow, but not before an apparent clash between Wagner and Russian troops, which was followed by a fire at that oil refinery you see on your screen there.

Now, under the deal done, the Kremlin says Wagner troops will not face any legal action, but they'll sign new contracts with Russia's defense ministry, while Moscow will drop its charges against Prigozhin who will go to Belarus. Wagner's leader says he agreed to that in order to avoid bloodshed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGHOZIN, HEAD OF WAGNER PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANY (through translator): Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HOLMES: The Kremlin says it doesn't know where Prigozhin is right now. What you see there is video of people cheering as he left Rostov- on-Don where his troops seized military facilities on Saturday. Officials now tell CNN the U.S. intelligence believes Prigozhin was planning to challenge Russia's military leadership for a while, while Washington did not see any change in Russia's nuclear posture despite all the turmoil.

Ivan Watson monitoring the developments in Russia. He joins me now from Hong Kong. An extraordinary day by any measure. Where do things stand now in terms of Prigozhin and his future?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Prigozhin himself has been conspicuously silent. He's a bit of a loudmouth who's all over social media normally, but since his final audio message where he announced he was turning his troops around, that they had accomplished their plan, we haven't really heard from him. And even the Kremlin says that it does not know where he is right now.

I think that Russians, including the elite, are just beginning to digest the whiplash of Saturday's mercenary mutiny, which apparently has come to an end. I'm going to play you a clip from one of the chief Kremlin propagandists, that's Vladimir Soloviev, where he went into a long soliloquy about this. He was clearly troubled because he has done a lot of work alongside the Wagner fighters in Ukraine, promoting them as heroes. And all of a sudden, in his own words, Russia was on the brink of a civil war. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR SOLOVIEV, RUSSIAN TELEVISION PRESENTER (through translator): The country was on the brink of tragedy. It was a very difficult day. It was a day where, if not many, then very many have revealed themselves. A day that cannot be forgotten. Lessons that have to be considered. It should be closely examined who said what and when and how they behaved.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: He goes on to say that helicopter crews and pilots were killed on Saturday. Yevgeny Prigozhin himself said his forces downed at least one helicopter that he said threatened his forces. Now, Ramzan Kadyrov, he is the president of Chechen Republic region of Russia and had sent troops to help support the Russian security forces to potentially face off against Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries, thousands of them, according to Chechen state media. And he has gone on the record saying condemning Prigozhin even after this deal has apparently been struck, saying that, "mixing business ambitions with matters of national importance were a bad thing to do."

Now, on the other side of this are critics of the Putin regime. And I'm going to highlight a tweet from one group, that Pussy Riot, that kind of art punk band whose members were jailed for two years for criticizing Vladimir Putin in one of their performances, and they wrote, "Criminal cases have already been dropped from Prigozhin? Six downed helicopters, a couple of dead pilots and the criminal case was removed. And I served two years for dancing." And then, of course, there's a clown picture of Vladimir Putin.

So, again, we're getting different interpretations of what happened. But clearly, people are uncomfortable with what happened in Russia on Saturday.

[01:05:00]

HOLMES: Yes, extraordinary stuff. Putin now, of course, well, he's been challenged and some would say found wanting. Where do you think he stands in terms of, you know, control and respect?

WATSON: Well, he has illustrated that when an armed force comes charging into Russia, it can make it almost to the gates of Moscow without being stopped by his own security forces, that it can take over the headquarters of the Russian military in the south of the country without firing a shot. That's what Prigozhin forces -- what his forces succeeded in doing on Saturday.

And I think as a number of observers have said, Prigozhin has demonstrated that Vladimir Putin no longer has the monopoly on the use of force in his country after 23 years in power.

HOLMES: I want to ask you too about Belarus. Why would Prigozhin go there? Why was Alexander Lukashenko the dealmaker?

WATSON: Right. Well, Belarus is a much smaller country than Russia. It's in a union with Russia. And it's very much the junior partner and ally of Vladimir Putin, that is, Alexander Lukashenko, very much beholden to his godfather, so to speak, Putin, who has helped save him from an uprising after a fiasco with elections in Belarus two years ago.

Out of the blue, in the midst of this very serious crisis and challenge to Vladimir Putin's authority which Putin himself compared to the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, out of the blue, suddenly, the Kremlin and the Belarus government announced they've brokered a deal with Prigozhin. The Kremlin arguing that, well, Lukashenko has known Prigozhin for more than 20 years and that's where some of the trust is and that Prigozhin will go there, with no kind of further details of under what conditions and will he still have command and control over the Wagner mercenaries, not only in Ukraine and in Russia, but also in Africa, where they're involved in mining and all sorts of business there. So, these are big questions.

And recall, Michael, on Saturday, the Russian security forces were raiding the Wagner offices in their headquarters in St. Petersburg and going through there, that's how volatile this situation was. And then, just hours later, the Kremlin announces it's dropping all charges against this man who was conducting, leading a march, a military march on the Russian capital.

HOLMES: Yes. You just get the sense there are more shoes to drop in all of this, Ivan. Appreciate it. Ivan Watson there in Hong Kong for us.

All right. Joining me now is Robert English, director of Central European Studies at the University of Southern California. It's good to see you.

So, you wrote -- I read that Yevgeny Prigozhin wants to be Russia's new czar. I mean, this may well not be over yet. But how's that looking for him?

ROBERT ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL EUROPEAN STUDIES, USC: It's not looking as bad as some might think. You know, he lost. He stood down. Putin won. But Prigozhin is sort of like a Cesar in exile, right? Someone who can still threaten from abroad, someone who has enormous credibility as a military leader, who has loyal troops. Although, he separated from them for now. And someone who's anti-corruption, anti- elite. His anger at this sort of self-satisfied oligarchs in Moscow resonates very strongly. So, he could be a future threat as well.

Again, I draw the analogy with a Julius Cesar, who came to power that way with his private army challenging the corrupt elite. And as Roman history showed, generals sent into exile often came back to pose a second and maybe successful challenge.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. So, you believe -- I mean, obviously he didn't do this on a whim. So, you think he has a grand strategy that's yet to play out, and the last day or so is perhaps just a chapter in that?

ENGLISH: I think Vladimir Putin is aware of the continuing threat as well, and there will be follow-on efforts to neutralize him, right?

HOLMES: Yes.

ENGLISH: The fact that criminal charges were dropped, he's in a neighboring country doesn't mean Putin is so foolish as to let the threat linger. But it reminds us that there could be another Prigozhin. This is what's most concerning. We're all maybe excited to see that Putin's hold on power is shakier and the state is more fragile than we thought, but we should also think as much about what would happen next, and it probably will be somebody like a Prigozhin or another sort of military leader who pretends for power, not a liberal like an Alexei Navalny or these other liberal critics of Putin, but a populist from the right who appeals to the same anti- elite, anti-corrupt instincts but has brutal dictatorial tendencies of their own.

[01:10:00]

HOLMES: Yes. You wrote also that Putin's authority has suffered. I think you called it a shattering blow. You know, to continue the czar analogy and Julius Caesar, has the Rubicon been crossed in terms of what's happened over so far, in terms of the stability of Putin and the Kremlin elite? Is there now a no going back home in terms of change?

ENGLISH: I think so. This was a real watershed for an armed insurrection, as you correctly put it, to get so close to Moscow, to develop, expand, and then make this open challenge and force concessions from Putin before backing down. Yes. Putin's authority has suffered a shattering blow and his legitimacy in the eyes of the public is much less now. These are things he can't recover. And he'll be forced to rule in an even more dictatorial fashion, which can become a vicious circle, because that will provoke, you know, more dissatisfaction. And the image, the all-powerful Putin who's been around forever and will continue indefinitely, has now been punctured.

HOLMES: Yes. Because, I mean, he's always been notoriously careful, distrustful, paranoid, even, when it comes to those in his orbit. Given that, are you surprised that he gave Prigozhin such a long leash? He let him do the things he did and say the things he said. Did he allow the useful tool too much room?

ENGLISH: He certainly did. And, you know, it's surprising because Putin has been a superb student of power and self-preservation. How could he therefore allow such a threat, you know, to emerge right beside him? This is somebody, of course, that he nurtured, not just as an oligarch, as a businessman in St. Petersburg, but then, don't forget, Prigozhin funds the internet research agency that troll farm that interfered in our 2016 elections. He forms this private army that does Putin's dirty work in Syria, in African countries. All the while growing stronger. All the while on social media, promoting his own image. And only in the last two weeks did they try to bring him under control, and they waited too long.

HOLMES: Yes. You know, going back, you touched on his -- Prigozhin's personality. I mean, if he magically, at some point, were to -- and this is obviously massively premature -- become that czar, all of a sudden find himself the Russian leader, what kind of leader would he be? He's no altruistic champion of democracy, that much we're sure of.

ENGLISH: No. As I say, he's no Alexie Navalny. He appeals to some of the same populist instincts, the anti-corruption, anger at the elite. But if someone like Prigozhin came to power, I would expect martial law, I would expect summary executions of all of his enemies and an iron-fisted grip on power combined with a fascist-like appeal to nationalism. It would not be a happy chapter in Russian history. And it, strangely enough, reminds us there are actually worse things than Putin.

Don't forget, Prigozhin's main line of work for the last decade has been killing people.

HOLMES: Yes.

ENGLISH: And he's been killing more people on the Ukrainian side probably than anyone else in the Russian armed forces. Not a nice guy. Not a good prospective leader of a country that needs, you know, a liberal reformist turn after decades of Putin.

HOLMES: And killing plenty of his own guys by forcing them into the meat grinder. Fascinating conversation. Robert English, thank you so much. Appreciate the time.

ENGLISH: You're quite welcome.

HOLMES: In Washington, there has been little said publicly about Prigozhin's gambit, but senior U.S. officials have been on the phones with allies since it began. The White House says the president and vice president are getting regular updates on the situation, that Mr. Biden had been in touch with the leaders of the U.K., France, and Germany. The common theme of all these high-level contacts has been to stress Washington's unwavering support for Ukraine, no matter how things played out in Moscow.

CNN's Kevin Liptak joins me now from Washington with the very latest from there. So, tell us more about the D.C. reaction, what's going on at the White House?

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes. Certainly, the big question, I think, at the White House, at the Pentagon, is how this is going to affect the war in Ukraine, because certainly on its face, it does seem like a distracted Vladimir Putin would be good for the Ukrainians. But on the flip side, I think there is major concern among President Biden's aides and certainly among the U.S. allies what happens if Putin decides to lash out because he needs to demonstrate some strength?

[01:15:00]

And remember, this is a country with the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. So, that has been sort of a fact that has been looming over the response today. And I think it's part what was has informed the strategy of not really responding directly to the events on the ground in Russia. You have not seen President Biden come out and deliver any kind of statement of any kind. They have remained behind closed doors, and I think the point really is to not lend sort of the ability for Putin to use that as a pretext to accuse the U.S. and NATO of fostering this, to accuse this of being some sort of American plot.

And in fact, when the president did get on the phone earlier today with U.S. allies, including the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, that is something I'm told that they did come to agreement on is that no ally, none of these leaders would come out and say definitively how sort of they're feeling about this, about this, you know, events on the ground there. And so, I think that that is what President Biden was really trying to do.

Now, he did sort of maintain his schedule throughout the day. Of course, after that briefing, he went up to Camp David, that's the presidential retreat in Maryland, and he is being briefed. But certainly, we shouldn't expect the president to come out and really say sort of a definitive statement going forward for that reason, Michael.

HOLMES: I wanted to ask you too about the reporting that U.S. intel kind of saw this coming, they knew Prigozhin was going to make a move?

LIPTAK: Yes. This is something that American intelligence agencies really have been monitoring over the last several months or so. It really is as early as January when officials looking at the intelligence described what they called a power struggle between the Wagner Group and the Russian ministry of defense. And they said, at the time, that they believed that that would mount, that that would escalate over the coming months. And of course, it did.

And as recently as just this past week, the intelligence agencies did brief members of Congress, as well as briefing the White House and the Pentagon, that the Wagner Group had -- was making these preparations to do what he eventually did over the last day or so. And so, that does give you an insight into how closely this is being monitored.

Now, do think that how quickly this escalated yesterday really did catch the White House off guard somewhat, and you could see that a number of officials, including the Joint Chiefs chairman, Mark Milley, and the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, had planned overseas travel. They did have to scrap that travel. So, it does give you a sense of how quickly this was escalated, how even though they had this intelligence, they didn't necessarily think that it would happen when it happened. And so, this is something that they will continue monitoring over the next week, what the intelligence is saying about what this means going forward.

HOLMES: Indeed. Kevin, good to have your input there. Kevin Liptak in Washington for us.

So, where is Yevgeny Prigozhin? The Kremlin says it has no idea where the Wagner leader is after he abruptly called off that threatened insurrection. The latest on what we know when we come back.

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[01:20:00]

HOLMES: Prigozhin's armed insurrection in Russia ended mere hours into one of the most audacious challenges to Vladimir Putin's authority ever witnessed. The Kremlin says it doesn't know where Prigozhin is right now. He was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don in a vehicle you see in there, pausing briefly to shake hands with people and then driving away.

And while this showdown may have been defused for now, the threat to Putin's regime may be far from over. The Wagner leader showed just how easily he could take over a major Russian military installation and city and then send columns of troops racing towards Moscow.

Some Wagner mercenaries were halfway to the capital when Prigozhin abruptly ordered them back. A personal appeal by the president of Belarus, a close Putin ally, is credited with persuading Prigozhin to call of his rebellion.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says that the Russian president is "very afraid" following Wagner's chief's insurrection. He also claimed that Putin had left Moscow, adding that the Russian president's own actions were to blame for the situation facing him.

Meanwhile, an adviser to Ukrainian presidential administration says the insurrection almost nullified Putin. In a tweet, he criticized the Wagner chief for turning his forces around from a march towards Moscow and reaching that apparent deal. Kyiv also took advantage of the chaos in Russia. The country's deputy defense minister says they launched simultaneous counter offenses in multiple directions on Saturday.

Now, for civilians across Ukraine, the chaos that unfolded in Russia seemed to change little about the war, as Russian troops launched more missile attacks across the country. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 41 out of 51 Russian cruise missiles and two Iranian-made drones on Saturday, that's according to Ukrainian state media. At least three residents were killed in Kyiv, more than a dozen injured after falling missile debris landed on an apartment building.

Meanwhile, an overnight Russian missile strike hit a residential area in Southeastern Ukraine. According to a Ukrainian official, four houses were destroyed, more than two dozen damaged during the attack.

Ukraine, of course, was watching closely as that day of turmoil unfolded in Russia. CNN's Ben Wedeman with this report from inside Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What a long strange day it's been. Starting early with Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claiming to have seized critical military facilities in the City of Rastov-on-Don, including the headquarters of Russia's southern military district, the strategic command center for much of Russia's forces in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

[01:25:00]

For Ukraine, it seemed the enemy was turning upon himself, that the ripples of chaos and disorder in Russia would reach the frontlines here. Ukrainian officials issued statements to the effect that this was the beginning of the collapse of Russia, of a civil war, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even suggesting that Putin was on the run.

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I'm sure that he is no longer in Moscow.

WEDEMAN: Wherever he was, everything changed when it was announced that Prigozhin had agreed to stop his march on Moscow and return to base. Saturday evening, Kyiv announced gains in a series of offensives around the now Russian-occupied town of Bakhmut. But when all is said and done, the sound and fury of Prigozhin's brief insurrection came to naught.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: And welcome back to "CNN Newsroom." Our top story this hour, Wagner mercenaries have been withdrawing from their positions in Russia after their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called off an armed uprising against the military.

[01:30:00]

Some fighters receiving cheers and hugs from supporters as they left the southern region of Rostov. Prigozhin also showered with applause as he withdrew from a captured military facility in the area. The Kremlin says he will soon leave for Belarus after striking a deal to end the rebellion and stop an advance on Moscow.

His troops were heading towards the capital, along the highway, this highway, in a convoy of armed vehicles. Part of the road has now been cleared, but restrictions are still in place around Moscow. And after a chaotic day and a half, Moscow relatively calm. Let's have a look. We have live pictures for you.

It is an uneasy calm in some ways, tempered by the most serious challenge to President Vladimir Putin's authority in decades. Experts tell CNN that the problems he faces as a result of the insurrection are not over, and some in Moscow say they can't ever fully put their guard down.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): It's never been peaceful in Russia. There's always some kind of unrest. Something else. Someone didn't share something. Someone didn't like something.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And my colleague Paula Newton joins me now from Ottawa in Canada to talk more about it. So, you know, when it comes to Putin, he's always been a bit lacking in trust even among those in his orbit. How has all of this played out in terms though of what the public is seeing and hearing about what happened?

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, it's interesting. Certainly, the Kremlin sought to try and control the narrative, as it normally would, but this time it seemed more, Michael, for the purposes of avoiding panic than anything else.

Now, NetBlocks, which is a nonprofit that tries to monitor internet censorship did indicate some news sites were blocked starting on Friday night. And obviously, we have to say that given the new laws in place in Russia since they started the war in Ukraine, you definitely cannot speak out against the war in Ukraine, and there have been examples where people have been punished for doing so.

Having said that, Michael, it's extraordinary just having reviewed some of the Russian newspapers and what's on them right now that they really did cover this straight up in a way, and that's been interesting to me in the sense that Russians, if they wanted the information, were able to get it. In fact, one of the newspapers, Kommersant, even quoted the reporting we just had with Kevin Liptak. And in that sense, they continue to try and toe the line between giving Russians information that they know cannot be denied, and at the same time, make sure that they do not have any dissent from it. It's an interesting line that they have been trying to tread, and I suggest that perhaps they might work a little harder, unfortunately, on that internet censorship in the coming days or weeks, depending on how precarious the situation becomes in Russia.

HOLMES: Yes. You spent a lot of time in Russia. You know the country well and how the politics works. Do you get the sense that Putin is wounded in a political sense, you know, maybe not in the next few days, but months, even a year or two down the line?

NEWTON: I think as difficult as it is to try and figure out Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin, and this country, no matter having covered it over a generation now, it's unquestionable that people are looking at Vladimir Putin and wondering if he really has the hold on power that they demand he should have. And that comes not just from ordinary Russians but, of course, from the Russian elites.

And you know, when Putin take -- took over in 2000, he certainly promised that there would be order. Order was not what we saw on the roads leading to Moscow today. And there has been this slow creep of Ukrainian conflict coming to the Russian doorstep. It has in economic terms for months now. But in the last several weeks, it has been much more acute in terms of actually threatening Russians.

At issue now is whether the Russian elite will actually determine that there is a political alternative to Vladimir Putin and if they can do anything to replace him. Michael.

HOLMES: All right. Paula, appreciate that. Thanks so much.

Joining me now is Masha Gessen, a staff writer for "The New Yorker" and the author of "Surviving Autocracy." Great to have your voice on this, Masha.

So, you know, Putin called what Prigozhin did, an insurrection, he spoke of being stabbed in the back. How damaged do you think Putin is? No matter what the apparent deal done is with the man who brought that about, is his foundation fractured?

[01:35:00]

MASHA GESSEN, STAFF WRITER, THE NEW YORKER: Well, we can't tell if it's fractured until it actually -- the whole edifice actually collapses. But I think this is huge. This is the first real challenge to Putin's monopoly on political action and Putin's monopoly on force at the same time, it leaves, you know, 23 years, the 23 years that Putin has been in power, right? And especially in the last few years, there's been nobody else speaking in public and being able to take political action, not to mention force.

So, even just people of Russia having seen that this was possible and that it is possible to get Putin to react to it, more or less in real- time, is huge. Now, does that mean that the Putin regime will end before Putin dies? We have no idea, right, but it does mean that it is in crisis. HOLMES: You know Russia and Russians very well. I mean, this isn't 1991 when "Swan Lake" played on TV when the coup went on. People know more these days about what's going on. What will people be thinking right now? Do you have any sense of that, how much they would know?

GESSEN: Actually, I think people know a lot less than they did in 1991.

HOLMES: Really?

GESSEN: 1991, there was a vibrant media scene and, you know, quite a lot of information flow. These days, you know, the information regime is extremely restrictive. But it could, of course, become more restrictive, and that's probably what Putin is going to have to do. I mean, he's going to have to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again. And the only way for him to do that is to really crack down on information in Russia, and that probably means cutting Russia off from the internet.

HOLMES: Wow. That would be quite something. Because I guess regardless of how this end, I'm curious how much would Prigozhin claims, there were many, but the main one being that the reasons for the war were manufactured, a lie. How much would that hurt his credibility with the people? You know, there would be a lot of angry mothers, I imagine?

GESSEN: No, I think that's completely inconsequential. I mean, that's -- you know, the -- sort of the way to (INAUDIBLE) propaganda works is by creating chaos, by creating instability of ideas and projecting the idea that nothing is knowable. So, in that sense, you know, Prigozhin's statements just go into that same melting pot of contradictory claims. That doesn't make a huge difference.

But what makes a difference is that Prigozhin demonstrated to people who are reading Telegram channels, who are watching Putin on TV, who were in the streets of Rostov, a very large and very important city where the headquarters -- the southern headquarters of the Russian military are, they were seeing that someone else wields armed power in Russia. That's what makes a difference.

HOLMES: Right. Yes. That makes sense. I guess Putin lost, I don't know if confidant is the right word, but lost someone that he perhaps trusted a bit with Prigozhin's actions. Do you think more than ever Putin is wondering just who he can trust right now?

GESSEN: We can't get inside Putin's head, but we can say that one of the things that has made Putin so effective on holding onto power is his paranoia. This is the first time that someone beat him to the punch. Usually, he will jail people, exile people, or intimidate people before they get to say something in the public sphere or, you know, before they've seemed to present a threat to his rule.

His reaction to opposition protests, to activism against him, has always been disproportionate precisely because he is paranoid, precisely because he tends to overestimate the risks to his power. This is his first mistake in that arena, and that's huge. HOLMES: You know how it works better than me in Russia. Does the decline of a leader take time?

GESSEN: In totalitarian societies, usually the decline of a leader does not take time. Usually, it happens suddenly. It seems that at this time it didn't happen, right? So, I don't think we're -- what we're going to be observing is some slow, gradual loss of power. I think what we're going to be observing next is an intense crackdown that may or may not succeed in getting things under control.

But whatever happens next is going to be drastic, and then, you know, there's another drastic protest if the crackdown basically fails to bring things under control. It will also be a major sort of event that will feel like the house of cards folding all at once.

[01:40:00]

HOLMES: Do the people then rise up or can you not see that happening? Popular protests?

GESSEN: The regime is not going to be brought down by popular protests.

HOLMES: Right.

GESSEN: The regime can only be brought down by people who are well- armed.

HOLMES: Yes. Fascinating analysis as always. Masha Gessen, thanks so much. A pleasure.

GESSEN: Thank you.

HOLMES: Now, the insurrection led by Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has reportedly been a long time in the making. Still to come, a word from U.S. intelligence about his plot to challenge Russia's military leaders. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Welcome back. A quick update on our developing story out of Russia. Officials are telling CNN that U.S. intelligence believes Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to challenge Russia's military leaders for quite some time.

What you see there is video of him surrounded by supporters after he cut a deal with the Kremlin to end his insurrection. Moscow says it doesn't know where the Wagner leader currently is. He was meant to go to Belarus.

[01:45:00]

U.S. officials also say Washington didn't see any change in Russia's military posture during his insurrection. But Ukraine saw opportunity in all of that, launching multiple attacks across the eastern front on Saturday. Kyiv says it made progress in all directions, but didn't give any details.

Since the war began in Ukraine, 18 -- 16 months ago now, the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been one of Vladimir Putin's few close allies. He played a role in bringing Saturday's crisis to an end through a negotiated settlement between Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin before the situation escalated even further and Russian lives were lost.

CNN's Chief U.S. Security Correspondent Jim Sciutto explains.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIM SCUITTO, CNN CHIEF U.S. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: And it's interesting for Lukashenko to have this kind of influence at this stage, because remember, back in the days before the invasion, Lukashenko portrayed himself as the person who could negotiate a peace between Putin and Zelenskyy to avoid that war. Of course, that effort failed, and perhaps was never serious, because Putin was intent on invading that country.

In this circumstance, it seems that Lukashenko played a role. I mean, we should not exaggerate that role, because any final decision would be with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, himself. But perhaps Lukashenko here, whose own leadership has been in question, his own actual control of his country has been in question to the extent that he had some influence here that, in a way, got Putin out of a jam, right? I mean, you had an open rebellion against Putin's leadership with forces marching on Moscow and Lukashenko able to play a role, at least, in defusing that situation for now. And now, if Russian officials are to be believed, this is where Prigozhin is going to end up.

The thing is, Belarus is effectively an extension of Russia. There are borders between them, but Russia largely controls Belarus. So, so his safety there, you know, far from guaranteed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And it should be noted that some Russian forces began the war invading Ukraine from Belarusian territory and that Lukashenko has said his country will host Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

Now, the chaos that unfolded in Russia on Saturday caught much of the International Community off guard. But many of Ukraine's European allies were on edge. Many of them expressing concern over political instability in a nuclear power.

Meanwhile, the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, said Russia's war in Ukraine was driving instability within its own borders.

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GIORGIA MELONI, ITALIAN PRIME MINISTER (through translator): At the moment, it's hard to know exactly what is happening. But it's a situation of chaos inside the Russian federation which clashes a bit with some of the propaganda we have seen in recent months. (END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: A challenge to Vladimir Putin's grip on power raises fears about what the Russian president might do if he feels threatened, cornered. The biggest concern, of course, is Russia's massive nuclear arsenal. CNN's Kylie Atwood with the latest from the State Department.

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KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN U.S. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: U.S. officials say they have seen no change in Russia's nuclear posture since Prigozhin has carried out this attempted insurrection. And we have seen President Putin engage in nuclear saber-rattling throughout the course of the Ukraine war. U.S. officials have been concerned that any escalation, any threat to President Putin as a result of what happens on the battlefield could potentially lead him to feeling like he needs to assert his power and use those nuclear capabilities.

But of course, at this moment in time, the threats to his power are not coming from Ukrainian aggressions on the battlefield, they're coming from internal divisions within Russia's fighting force. But still, he is presented with a situation that is threatening to his standing, to his power, presenting questions about what he could potentially do with Russia's nuclear capabilities.

We should note that just earlier this month, President Putin said that Russia had moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus. Now, a State Department spokesperson confirmed what U.S. officials are saying, saying that there has been no change to the disposition of Russian nuclear forces and also saying there's no reason to address the conventional or nuclear force posture of the United States at this time.

Kylie Atwood, CNN, the State Department.

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HOLMES: Coming up here on "CNN Newsroom," we'll take a closer look at the architect of the armed insurrection in Russia, inside Yevgeny Prigozhin's past and his history with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. You're watching "CNN Newsroom." We'll be right back.

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HOLMES: Right now, in Russia, things are pretty calm and quiet after an armed insurrection by the Wagner paramilitary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, ended abruptly.

Prigozhin has agreed to leave the country and head to Belarus, thanks to a deal brokered by the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko. The video you see there is Prigozhin leaving the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don in Southern Russia. Although, we don't know where he is right now. In return, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, says Russia will drop criminal cases against him. And he says that the Wagner fighters who marched towards Moscow will face no legal action and can sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.

Now, as the insurrection unfolded, the Wagner chief was announcing his every move on the messaging app, Telegram, as CNN's Political and National Security Analyst David Sanger explains, Yevgeny Prigozhin is very adept at social media.

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DAVID SANGER, CNN POLITICAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST AND WHITE HOUSE AND NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES: It's been pretty brilliant, but that shouldn't surprise us given the fact that Prigozhin himself is no amateur when it comes to social media.

You'll remember, if we just wind the clock back seven years ago, he was running the internet research agency, the group that went out, sent people to the United States to go figure out divisive issues, came back and started posting from the internet research agency on Facebook and elsewhere efforts to basically send out disinformation and try to get -- to open up divisions within the American body politic. And they did it very effectively.

They declare a protest in one place and then a counterprotest for the same day in the same place and try to create a small riot. They did this in Texas. They did this in other places. So, speed forward seven years and he's using Telegram, a widely used messaging app and social media app as well, and he's announcing each of his moves, but he's also using it to declare that the defense ministry -- the defense minister, General Gerasimov, the famed head of the chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, are corrupt, incompetent. And the amazing thing is until, you know, today, he didn't get shutdown.

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HOLMES: And our thanks to David Sanger there.

And thank you for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes. Do stick around. I'll have more "CNN Newsroom" in just a moment.

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