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M-4 Highway Still Has Restrictions in Place; Kremlin Claims Some Wagner Mercenaries Will Sign Contracts with Russian Military; Prigozhin's Charges Will Be Dropped, He Will Travel to Belarus, According to Kremlin; To Avoid Bloodshed, Prigozhin Reached an Agreement with Kremlin; Moscow Claims To Be Unaware Of Prigozhin's Current Whereabouts; U.S. Intelligence Believes Prigozhin Has Been Planning a Military Challenge; Belarus: Lukashenko Mediated an Agreement with Prigozhin; Interview with King's College London War Studies Lecturer Vera Michlin-Shapir; After a Russian Missile Attack on Kyiv Left Three People Killed; U.S. Officials Mindful of Saying Anything that Moscow Might Interpret as Interference; Russian Coverage of Wagner's Insurrection; Why Did Prigozhin Agree to End Uprising?; After Abruptly Calling an End to the Insurgency, Prigozhin was Last Seen leaving Rostov-on-Don; Interview with Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin Director Alexander Gabuev; Kremlin: Prigozhin to Leave Russia, Go to Belarus; After Armed Uprising, Putin's Power Put to the Test. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[02:00:00]

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL NEWS ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes. Appreciate your company.

We do begin with the dramatic turn of events in Russia. At this hour Moscow, as you can see there for yourself, a live image for you. It's calm, but traffic restrictions are still in place on a major highway connecting the capital with southwestern Russia. All that after an insurrection led by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin came to an end as suddenly as it started.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Video and sound there of Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries shooting in the air as they pulled out of the City of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday. Earlier, the Kremlin said it cut a deal with Prigozhin to stop the march of his forces to Moscow, but not before an apparently clash between Wagner and Russian troops which was followed by a fire at this oil refinery.

Now, under the deal, the Kremlin says, Wagner troops will not face any legal action but they'll sign new contracts with Russia's defense ministry, while Moscow will drop its charges against Prigozhin who will go to Belarus. Wagner leader said that he agreed to that in order to avoid bloodshed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGHOZIN, HEAD OF WAGNER PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANY (through translator): Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: The Kremlin says, it doesn't know where Prigozhin is right now. This is video of people cheering as he left Rostov-on-Don where his troops seized military facilities on Saturday. Officials now tell CNN the U.S. intelligence believes Prigozhin was planning to challenge Russia's military leadership for a while, while Washington did not see any change in Russia's nuclear posture during the turmoil.

For more on all of this, let's go to Ivan Watson in Hong Kong. Ivan, Yevgeny Prigozhin is not one to be quiet for long, but we've not heard from him since he left Rostov-on-Don, have we?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: No, not since he essentially declared victory and said his troops were turning around after getting, he claimed, within 200 kilometers of Moscow and saying he didn't want to spill blood. So, that's left, basically, Russia and the world, trying to digest what actually just happened here. And I don't think even people close to the Kremlin really have a firm answer because it was just Saturday morning that Vladimir Putin was making a televised address to the nation saying that this was a dire threat to the country, that he was comparing this to the 1917 Bolsheviks Revolution, and raising the specter of a possible civil war.

So, one of the propagandists show on state television on Vladimir Soloviev. And on his program, Saturday night, you could see him almost physically wrestling with the discomfort of Wagner mercenaries who he had broadcast alongside, including Prigozhin himself who he had called heroes, who had brought Russia to the brink, as he put it, of a civil war. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR SOLOVIEV, RUSSIAN TELEVISION PRESENTER (through translator): The country was on the brink of tragedy. It was a very difficult day. It was a day where, if not many then very many, have revealed themselves. A day that cannot be forgotten. Lessons that have to be considered. It should be closely examined who said what and when and how they behaved.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: And another powerful figure in Russia is Ramzan Kadyrov, he's the president of Chechnya, who had deployed, according to Chechen media, thousands of his forces to potentially confront the Wagner mercenaries on Saturday. And even after the deal was announced where the charges would be dropped against Prigozhin for what Putin has -- had described as an armed rebellion, Kadyrov went out and condemned this and said, I trusted Prigozhin and he betrayed that trust.

[02:05:00]

He also went onto say that he called Prigozhin a businessman who said that his anger stemmed from the fact that his daughter had not been provided a desired land plot by the authorities of St. Petersburg. So, we're getting hints at, kind of, disagreements that you might not typically hear about anywhere, and certainly the heavily censored Russian state media.

And then there's the flip side. There are those Russian who are outspoken critics of the Kremlin. And let's take a look at a tweet from Pussy Riot, that is that kind of political art punk band whose members were jailed in Russia for two years for coming out with a performance that criticized Vladimir Putin. And they wrote, criminal cases have already been dropped from Prigozhin. Six downed helicopters, a couple of dead pilots, and the criminal case was removed. And I served two years for dancing.

And what they're referring to there is that Prigozhin himself claimed to have shot down at least one Russian military helicopter on Saturday, and there were reports of other Russian military aircraft that were also downed that we were not able to independently confirm that have been referred to in the Russian state media. So, people lost their lives, pilots and helicopter crews. And yet in this deal, the Kremlin has said nobody's going to face charges for that.

HOLMES: Yes, that's fascinating stuff. I wanted to ask you, Ivan, you know, Putin has always been seen as a tough man. He deals with critics in a tough way. Yes, you go to jail for calling it a war or for criticizing the military. But here he did a deal with a man that he blamed for an insurrection, a treason just a day ago. What does that do to his standing, the respect, his control?

WATSON: Well, one of the arguments that I think the Kremlin has made is, we did this to avert bloodshed, and to avert the specter of civil war. And so, for the short-term you did not have this potentially catastrophic scenario of thousands of mercenaries who had fought hard in the trenches of Ukraine, who have seen their comrades die, and whose ranks are supplemented by convicted criminals who have been recruited from Russian prisons. You did not see them going toe to toe against the Russian security forces.

So, in the short-term something has been avoided here. But longer-term anybody with political ambition in Russia has just seen that a rival, potentially this -- Prigozhin could be described as a rival, could lead his men on a charge, a cannonball run up the highways almost to Moscow through a number of different provinces where the Russian authorities were left with fewer options than basically trying to cut off the highways or park trucks full of sand on the highways to try to block these advancing callings -- advancing columns of mercenaries.

And to avoid that, the Kremlin struck a deal rather than follow up on the reputation that Putin has of completely eliminating any critics whatsoever. So, it's hard to see this in any way other than Putin lost credibility, his reputation as a strongman has been seriously dented. HOLMES: Yes, yes. Indeed. Ivan, thanks as always. Ivan Watson there in Hong Kong.

All right. Let's take a closer look at the role Belarus played in all of this. I'm joined by CNN's Salma Abdelaziz in London. So, Salma, tell us more about Prigozhin striking this deal to go to Belarus.

SALMA ABDELAZIZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, Michael, there's a lot we don't know. We know that a deal was struck, of course. We saw those images of Prigozhin leaving Rostov-on-Don with people cheering, clapping, surrounding his car, trying to shake his hand. I mean, really dramatic images there of the support he got in a city where he says not a single shot was fired as he rolled in with his men and took over the southern command of Russia.

But as of now, neither the Kremlin nor Prigozhin are confirming where he is. And the question that follows that is what role does he take in Belarus? Belarus has essentially been a satellite state for Russia. Its leader Alexander Lukashenko owes President Putin, essentially, for saving him when there were elections a couple years ago and he was able to support him through the opposition that he faced at that time. And President Putin has used that IOU, if you will, to launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarus.

[02:10:00]

To position tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. And now, to house one of his rivals. Now, there's a relationship between Lukashenko and Prigozhin. But again, the question is, does Prigozhin still continue to maintain some semblance of control over the Wagner mercenaries? You'll remember that the deal also includes that these mercenaries have to sign contracts with the Russian ministry of defense, that's actually already been taking place before these events. But one could read between the lines that there's going to be an attempt to assimilate Prigozhin's men into the organized Russian military.

Will that take place? Will these men switch loyalties easily to the ministry of defense? And looking at the character of Prigozhin, he's very loud, bombastic public figure, who has openly challenged Russia's military leadership for months. You don't think he'll go silently into the night.

I mean, over the last 36 hours, he's gone from showing up the Russian military to showing up President Putin himself, demonstrating that he's not the only one with a monopoly of power. As you heard from my colleague, Ivan Watson there, that might be the greatest threat of all. He's indicating that weakness. Showing that sign of ability to do that and get away with it. And you've heard how are critics treated in the past by President Putin. They are silenced, they are disappeared, they are potentially killed, and Prigozhin gets away with it.

HOLMES: So far. Salma Abdelaziz, appreciate it. Good to see you. Thanks so much.

Vera Michlin-Shapir is a lecturer in the war studies department at King's College in London. She joins me now from London. Thanks for doing so. Prigozhin wouldn't have done this for nothing, would he? The question is, what does he get in return for turning back and going to Belarus? What do you make of that deal?

VERA MICHLIN-SHAPIR, LECTURER, WAR STUDIES, KING'S COLLEGE LONDON: Good morning, Michael. I think that as -- that's been mentioned so far, there are too many enigmas here, (INAUDIBLE) wasn't an enigma enough. There are too many question marks about this deal. Most things we know about this deal are actually what we've been told by Peskov, by Putin's spokesman. And I think that if one thing we've learned in the past year and a half was that we don't trust what Peskov -- thing that I don't trust what Peskov is saying right now about this deal.

And the biggest problem, for me, when I look at this deal is that what guarantees is Prigozhin getting? Because everything that's been said, and they're quite silent on the Wagner side. But on the Kremlin side, they're saying that the president guarantees -- the president. But what kind -- what underpins those guarantees? It's unclear. And so, if that doesn't make sense, that obviously -- then obviously, there are other things that are in play there.

Now, one of the things we could consider is that actually Prigozhin wanted to leave Ukraine. He wanted to get himself out of this situation that is clearly not going in the right direction. And with a Ukrainian counteroffensive may go in a very sour way for the Russians. And so, he actually, in a way, could have wanted himself out of that situation. He wanted to get out of Ukraine, and now he has this way. At a very high price, but also, he gained some popularity and power on the way.

HOLMES: Putin doesn't like being embarrassed, though. And surely this is just that, embarrassing. How might he handle that? How does he let the man who just launched an insurrection just carry on?

MICHLIN-SHAPIR: This is a very good question. I think that what we've seen yesterday, when in the morning, the president of Russia is saying that maybe heading towards a civil war, but civil war with whom supposedly, right? These are 25 -- according to Prigozhin, 25,000 armed men. Yes, they pose some kind of risk. But a severance, large severance -- well, at least a power, yes. A military power, as Russia claims to be, it shouldn't be too much of a threat. And this kind of mutiny, right?

And in order for this to move from mutiny towards say, an insurgency, a civil war, then there needs to be some kind of popular support for the idea that -- for the ideas that Prigozhin was putting forward. And so, I think that although Putin is now kind of what the Kremlin is trying to show to the Russian population is that we stopped the bloodshed, and so we are still in control, yes?

But I think everything the Kremlin was doing throughout the day yesterday showed immense weakness, specifically the fact that they thought that Prigozhin's ideas, that -- ideas, he called this march yesterday -- Prigozhin called this march, a march -- the justice march. He has this idea of, kind of, justice against the Kremlin, against the corrupt officials. That they would have some kind of hold within the Russian population. [02:15:00]

HOLMES: The -- I guess the reality of all of this is that Putin lost control of a mercenary army run by his friend and then had to rely on Lukashenko, a man he treats pretty much as a tool, to cut a deal with a man he called a traitor. Do you expect any sort of crack down in the Kremlin? What do you expect to happen in Moscow?

MICHLIN-SHAPIR: So, we see an immense level of weakness within the Kremlin with how things develop. The fact that they relied on Lukashenko is yet another sign that they didn't have the levers to kind of put Prigozhin back into his place within the Russian system. The thing is that the place that the Kremlin allowed Prigozhin to curve for himself was from the beginning very problematic which -- because from the beginning, actually, the fact that they allowed a paramilitary organization, a private military company that gets its money from the client states where it serves. So, for instance in Syria, in Libya, in Africa.

So, it gets, kind of -- it has resources that are outside of the Russian MLD (ph). This was from the start a, kind of, forfaiting (ph) monopoly of use of force, forfaiting (ph) all sorts of levers that have over him. So, yes, they need to fix the system, absolutely. But how? I don't see what kind of tools they have.

HOLMES: And real quick, do you think Yevgeny Prigozhin will be alive in six months?

MICHLIN-SHAPIR: Well, if he has any kind of reigns, he should have guarantees for his life and he should have some kind of guarantees for his life. But absolutely an open question, what will happen with him -- for him -- to him in the next six months? For sure, he is a man who showed us yesterday that he's not going to go down silent.

HOLMES: Yes, yes, yes. Good point. Vera Michlin-Shapir, fascinating conversation. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

MICHLIN-SHAPIR: Thank you.

HOLMES: All right. Still to come here on the program, the Wagner insurrection didn't give Ukraine a reprieve from Russia's onslaught of missile and drone attacks. We'll show you the damage when we come back.

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[02:20:00]

HOLMES: To restore order after mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called off his armed uprising against the military, the government still has some restrictions in place on a major highway which Prigozhin's fighters used to advance towards Moscow. Prigozhin says, he has stopped the convoy withdrawn from a captured military facility after reaching a deal. You see him leaving Rostov-on-Don there. The Kremlin says, he's going to go to Belarus and will not face criminal charges. His rebellion represented a huge threat to Vladimir Putin's grip on power. And according to Ukraine's president, it even frightened him.

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VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): I will say it in Russian, the man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere. Not showing himself. I am sure he is no longer in Moscow. He calls somewhere and asks for something. He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat. All evil, all losses, all hatred. He himself who spreads it. And the longer he can run between his bunkers, the more you will all lose, everyone who is connected with Russia.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: For civilians across Ukraine, the chaos unfolding in Russia seemed to change little about the war as Russian troops launched more missile attacks across the country. Ukrainian air defenses did intercept 41 out of 51 Russian cruise missiles, as well as two Iranian made drones on Saturday, that's according to Ukrainian state media.

At least three residents, though, were killed in Kyiv, more than a dozen wounded after falling missile debris landed on an apartment building. Meanwhile, an overnight Russian missile strike hit a residential area in south eastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian official. Four houses were destroyed, more than two dozen damaged during that attack.

U.S. officials are especially wary about saying anything publicly that the Kremlin might construe as interference or being involved in any way. So, the Biden administration has said very little. But behind the scenes, the White House says the president and vice president are getting regular updates on the situation and that Mr. Biden has spoken with the leaders of the U.K., France, and Germany.

CNN's Kevin Liptak joins us now from Washington with the latest from this. So, tell us more about the White House, the U.S. government reaction.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes, I think right now the big question hanging over the White House is how this -- these events might affect the war in Ukraine, because certainly on their face, a weakened Vladimir Putin would potentially be good for the Ukrainians. But I think on the flip side, there is this question that is being asked now at the White House, at the Pentagon is what President Putin might do if he feels cornered, if he feels boxed in? Will he lash out?

And remember, Michael, Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. And so, this is, sort of, an ongoing worry for the White House. And I do think that has informed some of the strategy that you saw unfold over the last two days, which is basically to say nothing. And, in fact, President Biden when he did get on that phone call with leaders from Europe this morning, he did make the point and the leaders did agree that trying to say anything more than they've said had the potential to allow President Putin this pretext for claiming some sort of American or NATO plot to take him out. And they really did want to avoid that because that is a play book that Putin has used in the past.

And so, President Biden, he was updated. He did leave for Camp David around midday today. And he did bring with him the National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan. So, certainly, he's being briefed very regularly on this. But I think the question that he and his officials will want to look at now is, really, what does President Putin's grip on power currently look like? Does this change anything in terms of his ability to lead Russia?

[02:25:00]

And I think that is something that they will really want to take a very close look at. This is certainly a very volatile moment in the 16 months since this war began, Michael.

HOLMES: Indeed, it is. Kevin, thank you. Kevin Liptak there in Washington following things for us.

Stay with us, we're going to take a break. When we come back, how did the Russian media cover the dramatic Wagner rebellion as it unfolded? We'll have a detailed report.

Also, one of the questions at the top of mind now is, why did Prigozhin call off the uprising and agree to leave Russia? Some possible answers after the break.

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HOLMES: Welcome back to our viewers here in the United States and around the world. I'm Michael Holmes. You're watching "CNN Newsroom."

And we do have an update from Russia where traffic is still restricted on the major highway that connects the capital to Rostov-on-Don to the south. A local Russian official says, the highway is being repaired after it was damaged possibly by departing Wagner mercenaries who'd been in the area.

As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin says it doesn't know where he is right now. He was last seen, of course, leaving Rostov-on-Don in a vehicle, pausing briefly to shake hands and then driving away.

[02:30:00]

Some Wagner mercenaries were halfway to the capital when Prigozhin abruptly ordered them back. A personal appeal by the president of Belarus, a close Putin ally, is credited with persuading Prigozhin to call off his mutiny.

So, how much do the Russian people know about Wagner's rebellion, considering media in Russia has been restricted, had restricted freedom to report news. My colleague, Paula Newton, joins us now from Ottawa in Canada. And Putin's always been very wary of the messaging, controlling the messaging, and I guess has that been the case here as well?

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. In an unprecedented way on Friday night, NetBlocks, an internet monitoring group reported that in fact, a lot of news sites and any kind of searches from google news were blocked in Russia. Having said that, Russians do know how to get around that if they are looking for the information. And in fact, this is what was fascinating, Michael. So many of the Russian websites themselves and the Russian newspapers kind of covered this straight up, giving a lot of information to people themselves, if they were looking for it. And I want you to listen now to what went on state TV as this unfolded. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): A statement from the ministry of defense. All the statements spread on social media attributed to Yevgeny Prigozhin and videos about alleged strikes on Wagner PMC camps are fake and nothing more than a provocation. We add that President Vladimir Putin has been informed about the situation surrounding Wagner group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. All necessary measures are being taken.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NEWTON: You know, this wasn't -- while people wanted Russians to stay calm, there was certainly a threat to Russia. Putin made it abundantly clear, as did the media around him, and that's what was so interesting about what unfolded in that 36 hours.

HOLMES: Yes, I want to ask you about, too, I mean Prigozhin is famous for his railing against the oligarchs, the children of the oligarchs, why aren't they at the front? Were those rants a threat?

NEWTON: They were most definitely a threat, and they started to rankle and really annoyed many quite a bit, especially because he outlined this corruption in detail. That corruption leading right back to the Russian military in the early hours of this, you know, alleged plot. He called it a march of justice, a march for justice. And what does that mean, as if somehow Russians weren't being treated fairly by the military or their own regime, and that poses a large threat to Putin himself.

You know, it's incredible that a man that basically hasn't -- the only man that has been that blunt about Russian corruption is, you know, Navalny who is in prison, at this point, and fighting for his life. And at the same time, Yevgeny Prigozhin decided this is what he would rail against in so many videos and audio messages. And for that reason, I have to say in terms of his connections as well to ultranationalists, this was a person that no one wanted in power whether it was the west or Vladimir Putin. He is considered dangerous, certainly accused of so many atrocities around the world. But it was that unmasking of the Russian elite that really proved threatening.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. Indeed. Paula, good to see you, my friend. Paula Newton there in Ottawa.

Well, for several long hours, Yevgeny Prigozhin seemed determined to march on Moscow in that armed mutiny of his. Well, then, Prigozhin, of course, abruptly ended the rebellion and agreed to leave Russia in a deal brokered by the president of Belarus. And the Kremlin announced that there would be no criminal charges against him. Well now, many are wondering why did Prigozhin agree to the deal? Here's more now from CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: I think there's a calculation here or an evaluation that says he overreached. There wasn't the readiness in Russia to support him to overthrow Shoigu and Gerasimov, his deputy. And less still to overthrow Putin. So, he overreached there, perhaps overreacted. He's seen as somebody who can get incredibly emotional.

So, potentially if his troops were attacked and he did overreact and he extended himself, he potentially realized his best way to back out of his overreaction and overreach, although, he was safe temporarily in Rostov-on-Don was to find a deal that would allow him to move out of Russia, at least lick his wounds and make his next move. He's an extremely untrustworthy character. It's amazing anyone thinks that they can make a deal with him that's going to stick.

[02:35:00]

The -- perhaps he's chastened by the fact that he realizes he's got a pardon and make the most of it and get somewhere moderately safer like Belarus. But let's face it. Belarus is perhaps no more safe than Russia anyway. Russia reach is right into Belarus. I mean, they claim to have based their tactical nuclear warheads there at the moment. Lukashenko, the leader there, is really propped up by Putin. Although suddenly Lukashenko looks like the guy who's helping Putin out of a hole. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Putin didn't have a sort of a pre-back channel sign off on whatever Lukashenko was doing. None of this really passes any kind of sensible sniff test at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Nic Robertson there for us. Let's get some more insight from Alexander Gabuev who is the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, joining us now from Lisbon. And thanks for doing so. So, Prigozhin gets no charges, goes to Belarus. Do you think he's going to stay there? It's hard to believe, isn't it, that he just calls it quits now, all is forgiven, and everyone moves on?

ALEXANDER GABUEV, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE RUSSIA EURASIA CENTER IN BERLIN: We really don't know at this point because nobody who is involved and who is speaking -- President Lukashenko or Putin's press secretary Peskov or Prigozhin himself has a good track record of saying the truth. So, we don't know a lot of details about the deal and don't know when the deal, whatever it is, will stick.

HOLMES: Now, the reality of all of this is Putin lost control of a mercenary army run by his friend. He then cuts a deal with a man that he called a traitor hours earlier. Do you see these as signs of weakness with Putin?

GABUEV: It is a sign of weakness, and it is one of the major tasks that the system has faced with Putin in power for more than two decades. But we also see time and again a remarkable ability to adapt in order to pull more power. Mr. Putin will definitely try to learn the lesson. And my prediction is that the system will be ever more repressive because he will try to eliminate the very possibility that something, like we saw yesterday, will happen again.

HOLMES: Do you think that the genie of revolt, if you like, can be put back in the bottle? Has that Rubicon been crossed? What's the lasting damage to Putin?

GABUEV: I think that the lasting damage to Putin is that many members of the elite and of the population saw the incompetence that the system is absolutely unprepared for a group of armed men to marching into 1 million city and seizing the very important command in Rostov- on-Don, which also has the nuclear -- tactical nuclear dimension. That's definitely bad. But I think that Putin will work overtime now to dismantle this image, to present himself as being back in charge and also to reshuffle his personnel.

HOLMES: Yes, yes. Same thing with Prigozhin, he long criticized the military leadership. But now he's undermined Vladimir Putin by saying. the rationale for the war was bogus. And of course, then heading for Moscow. I guess what everyone wants to know and doesn't know is, what his aims were and perhaps still are?

GABUEV: I think that he felt threatened that Wagner group will be integrated into ministry of defense, and then he will lose his power base. He will lose his business. He also witnessed that a lot of Ukrainian nationals who were used by the Kremlin in 2014 and 2015 when Russia launched its first stage of war against Ukraine in Donbas were later eliminated and killed. He knows that once Wagner is fully under ministry of defense control, he himself is useless. So, I see that this is an attempt to remain important, influential, and also alive.

HOLMES: It's a fascinating point. I mean, it was interesting, we saw him being, you know, cheered as he left Rostov-on-Don, by some people at least. How much does his message of anger at the elites resonate, his criticisms of the sons of oligarchs not fighting at the front? You know, the corruption allegations? Is that a message that people on the Russian street respond to?

GABUEV: That will definitely be a message that will resonate. But corruption of the top leadership is not news to the Russian people. They discuss it all the time. They know about it through Navalny investigation. And they see it in daily life. Not that it will force people to the street to support a person like Prigozhin.

[02:40:00]

HOLMES: There's always, I guess, the aspect of be careful what you wish for. How worried would the west be about if you know, Putin were to fall, at some point in the near future, how worried would the west be about who comes next?

GABUEV: The west definitely would be worried because Russia is a peer nuclear state to the United States. It has a lot of dangerous material, chemical weapons, conventional weapons. So, losing control or having somebody like Prigozhin in the Kremlin is a terrible news. Also, because of the domino effect it might send to other parts of Russia with the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and many others. The problem is that the west doesn't have a great degree of control here. Events in Russia will unfold, and there is not that much in Joe Biden's or any other western leader's toolbox to prevent that from happening.

HOLMES: Fascinate analysis. Alexander Gabuev, thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Still to come here on the program, he survived an armed uprising, but Vladimir Putin's problems are far from over. How the rebellion hurt his image on the world's stage. We'll have that when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:45:00]

HOLMES: And welcome back to "CNN Newsroom." More on our top story this hour. Wagner mercenaries have been withdrawing from their positions in Russia after their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin called off an armed uprising against the military. The Kremlin says, Prigozhin agreed to end the standoff and leave to Belarus. In exchange, Russia will drop a criminal case that was opened against him for starting the rebellion.

Well, he went from Putin's chef to an armed revolt. Now, Wagner group's strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin headed, as we say, to Belarus. And strangely enough, the Kremlin says Putin personally guarantees Prigozhin won't face any repercussions. CNN's Fred Pleitgen takes a look now at the mercenary leader who may be one of the first major Putin challengers to emerge unscathed, for now at least.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FRED PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Yevgeny Prigozhin certainly seems to have had a pretty meteoric rise. Now, on one hand, that was because he was so close to Vladimir Putin. However, he was pretty important for Vladimir Putin as well.

If you look at the beginnings, it really was pretty small at the start. He was in jail in the 1980s, in the Soviet Union, and started selling hot dogs in the 1990s in St. Petersburg. Now, it was there that he founded a catering company and became known as Putin's chef. And from there, things really went up for Yevgeny Prigozhin. He started a media company, which then turned into a media and propaganda empire, which, of course, the U.S. says meddled heavily in the 2016 presidential election. Yevgeny Prigozhin was actually indicted for that in the United States.

But then there was also the Wagner private military company. And I saw them and action, really at the beginning, when they were starting to go to places like Syria. And on the ground in Syria, their forces back then were pretty much doing base protection for the Russian military that was on the ground in Syria. But from there, things really did involve -- did evolve. They started getting involved in the oil business in Syria, then, of course, also things like gold and diamonds in African countries, and started training the forces of African countries as well.

But it really wasn't until the war in Ukraine that Wagner turned into pretty much a full-on army with really heavy weapons. If you look at the battle in Bakhmut, for instance, some of the firepower that was unleashed there by the artillery, by the tanks that Wagner now had in its possession, that certainly seemed to be a very professional army. And it was now that Yevgeny Prigozhin seemed to be at the height of his power, but it appears as though he's gone one step too far.

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HOLMES: Fred Pleitgen there for us. Now, Prigozhin's actions are considered a serious threat to Vladimir Putin's grip on power. Earlier we spoke about that with our Russian Affairs Contributor, Jill Dougherty, and asked her how the Russian president is now viewed through the eyes of other world leaders. Here she is.

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JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR, RUSSIAN AFFAIRS: I think if Xi Jinping, you know, the leader of China, looking at this. he's already seen Putin botch the war. This is not good, I think, for any type of respect that the Chinese would have for the Russians. He must be in the basement at this point. It is more -- it's really a disaster.

And so, it strengthens, you know, China. China comes out looking strong in most of this, and Russia looking very weak and disorganized, which it really is and chaotic. And then other countries, you know, might be looking at Putin let's say as a source of selling weapons. You know, North Korea, Iran, they too must be questioning, will Putin be in power, you know? They -- it's very unclear. So, I think it weakens him domestically, very weak and internationally.

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HOLMES: CNN Contributor Jill Dougherty there speaking with us earlier about the chaos in Russia.

Plenty more to talk about. Do stick around. We'll be right back after the break. You're watching "CNN Newsroom."

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HOLMES: Now, we don't know where Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is at this hour. We do know after an armed insurrection that lasted about a day and a half that Prigozhin is apparently no longer welcome in Russia. He did agree to leave for Belarus under a deal brokered by the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko. The Kremlin says, Prigozhin will not face criminal charges nor will the Wagner forces who marched towards Moscow. Now, earlier I discussed this with Robert English, a professor and director of Central European Studies at the University of Southern California. I asked him if Prigozhin still poses a threat to Putin even after calling off his uprising.

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ROBERT ENGLISH, DIRECTOR, CENTRAL EUROPEAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: Putin won. But Prigozhin is, sort of, like a Caesar in exile, right? Someone who can still threaten from abroad. Someone who has enormous credibility as a military leader. Who has loyal troops, although he is separated from them for now. And someone whose anti-corruption, anti-elite. His anger at the, sort of, self- satisfied oligarchs in Moscow resonates very strongly. So, he could be a future threat as well.

Again, I draw the analogy also with Julius Caesar, who came to power that way with his private army challenging the corrupt elite. And as roman history showed, generals sent into exile often came back to pose a second and maybe successful challenge.

HOLMES: Yes. Yes, so you believe -- I mean, obviously, he didn't do this on a whim. So, you think he has a grand strategy that's yet to play out, and the last day or so is perhaps just a chapter in that?

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ENGLISH: I think Vladimir Putin is aware of the continuing threat as well, and there will be follow-on efforts to neutralize him, right?

HOLMES: Yes.

ENGLISH: The fact that criminal charges were dropped, he's in a neighboring country, doesn't mean Putin is so foolish as to let the threat linger. But it reminds us that there could be another Prigozhin. This is what's most concerning. We are all, maybe, excited to see that Putin's hold on power is shakier, and the state is more fragile than we thought.

But we should also think as much about what would happen next. And it probably will be somebody like a Prigozhin or another, sort of, military leader who pretends for power. Not a liberal like an Alexei Navalny or these other liberal critics of Putin, but a populist from the right who appeals to the same anti-elite, anti-corrupt instincts, but has brutal dictatorial tendencies of their own.

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HOLMES: That was Robert English. He went on to say that Putin's authority suffered what he called a shattering blow as a result of the rebellion and the subsequent concessions made to Prigozhin.

Thanks for spending part of your day with me. I'm Michael Holmes, you can follow me on Twitter and Instagram @holmescnn. Kim Brunhuber picks up our coverage after a short break.

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