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Insurrection Led by Prigozhin Comes to Abrupt End; Kremlin Says Russia to Drop Charges Against Prigozhin, He'll Go to Belarus Under a Deal Brokered by Belarus; Biden Reaffirms U.S. Support for Ukraine in Calls with Leaders of U.K. France and Germany. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[03:00:00]

KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to all of you watching us here in the United States, Canada and around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber.

We begin with a dramatic turn of events in Russia. At this hour, Moscow is calm after an insurrection led by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin came to an end as suddenly as it started.

So, that is video of Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries shooting in the air as they pulled out of the city of Rostov-on-Don Saturday.

Now, earlier, the Kremlin said it cut a deal with Prigozhin to stop the march of his forces to Moscow but not before an apparent clash between Wagner and Russian troops which was followed by a fire at this oil refinery, which is now extinguished.

So, under this deal, the Kremlin says Wagner troops will not face any legal action but they'll sign new contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry, while Moscow will drop its charges against Prigozhin, who will go to Belarus. Wagner's leader says he agreed to that in order to avoid bloodshed. Here he is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, LEADER, WAGNER MERCENARY GROUP: Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: The Kremlin says it doesn't know where Prigozhin is right now. So, this is video of people cheering as he left Rostov-on-Don where his troops seized military facilities Saturday. Officials now tell CNN the U.S. intelligence believes Prigozhin was planning to challenge Russia's military leadership for a while, but it's still not clear what his ultimate goal was.

So, even though the rebellion is now over, Russia still had some traffic restrictions in place on the highway Prigozhin's troops used to advance to Moscow. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has condemn the actions of Wagner chief, saying bloodshed could have happened and that extreme measures would have been needed to stop the uprising.

Meanwhile, the U.S. says the insurrection was a huge challenge to Putin, but that it did not change Russia's nuclear posture.

All right, CNN is covering this story from all angles. We have former Moscow Bureau Chief Nathan Hodge, White House Correspondent Kevin Liptak and Senior International Correspondent Ivan Watson.

Let's begin with you, Ivan, in Hong Kong. So, so much has changed since you and I spoke yesterday. What's the latest?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Right, well, we went from having Yevgeny Prigozhin leading a march on Moscow with his mercenaries, having occupied the headquarters of the Russian military without firing a shot in the southern city of Rostov, and Putin comparing this to the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, vowing punishment, and then hours later, the Kremlin announcing a deal and the mercenaries pulling out. And the Kremlin saying nobody is going to be charged for that.

While, the reactions are starting to come in, from this dizzying turn of events, take a listen to what Ukraine's president has to say, of course, Ukraine, a mortal enemy of Vladimir Putin and his military and the Wagner Mercenaries.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: Today the world saw the bosses of Russia do not control anything, nothing at all, complete chaos, complete access of any predictability and it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: Now, this was a dramatic situation that many Russians saw unfold in front of their eyes. If you were in the south of the country or traveling along the highways leading north to Moscow, which Russian authorities tried to blockade in some places and where ordinary Russians saw huge convoys of mercenaries with heavy weaponry transiting those highways, and this was also covered in the Russian state media.

Russia Today, R.T., Russia 24, they were providing up-to-date tickers on what was going on, including Putin's speech to the nation, where he said this was potentially an existential moment that Russia could potentially be thrust into a civil war and then the sudden deal with somebody who he called a traitor just hours beforehand.

So, we're hearing almost confusion from some of the Russian state media personalities who are champions of the Russian war in Ukraine, some like Vladimir Soloviev, who was promoting Prigozhin and mercenaries as heroes on his programs in past months.

[03:05:05]

Take a listen to what he was saying last night on Russian state television.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR SOLOVIEV, RUSSIAN TELEVISION PRESENTER: The country was on the brink of tragedy. It was a very difficult day. It was a day where if not many, then very many have revealed themselves, a day that cannot be forgotten, lessons that have to be considered. It should be closely examined who said what and when and how they behaved.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: And he conceded that helicopter crews and pilots were killed in yesterday's events. Prigozhin himself claimed responsibility for shooting down at least one Russian military helicopter.

And critics of Putin's regime, well, they've been out as well. Take a look at what Gary Kasparov, he's Russian chess grandmaster and political activist, I believe, in exile, wrote, he said on target as usual, Putin betrayed his officials and military to grovel before Prigozhin. Dictators think only of extending their power another day, then another. That single-minded survival instinct is powerful but also prevents them from being strategic. And Kasparov knows a little bit about strategy. Back to you, Kim.

BRUNHUBER: All right. Thanks so much, Ivan Watson in Hong Kong. I appreciate it.

Wagner's rebellion was the most serious challenge to Vladimir Putin's authority since he came to power nearly 25 years ago. Although he survived Prigozhin's rebellion against the Defense Ministry, the damage could be long lasting. The Russian president suddenly looks diminished and vulnerable. Kremlin watchers expect him to crack down even harder to head off any future threats to his authority.

Joining me now from London is CNN's Nathan Hodge, formerly our Moscow Bureau Chief. And, Nathan, so, I mean, Prigozhin's army was able to travel hundreds of miles unchallenged basically, but even though he ended up standing down and Putin nominally won this face-off, where does that leave Putin now?

NATHAN HODGE, FORMER CNN MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Kim, I mean, this is not only the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin in over two decades of rule, it punctures the myth that he cannot be challenged.

The Kremlin has worked in a very assiduously during the entire course of his presidency, of his rule, to create this sort of image of Putin as sort of -- not just as a strong man but as the competent man that can steer the state.

He has built this myth around him that he is the man who brought Russia back from its knees after the chaos of the 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and his public image is incredibly closely handled, closely managed.

That's important to bear in mind that in Russia, essentially, protesting the war, going out with a sign is potentially -- it's illegal. Criticizing the military in Russia has been outlawed. But Prigozhin has now appeared on the scene, basically taking up arms, moving toward Moscow, in open rebellion. There's no other way to put it.

And so this poses a really, really serious problem for Putin, who's basically created this image of himself as the competent man who can steer the ship of state.

BRUNHUBER: Okay. So, that myth of invulnerability is in tatters, but more practically, do you think Prigozhin still poses a threat to Putin even in exile?

HODGE: Kim, I mean, you know, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, Prigozhin maintained a very low public profile. He was quite unknown, really, to the Russian public. And his activities generally weren't acknowledged by the state. That was one of the services, basically, that he was providing. By outsourcing parts of your foreign policy to Prigozhin, whether it be mercenaries in Syria or in Eastern Ukraine or operating troll farms, it gave the Kremlin sort of a level of deniability.

Now, what's happened now is that Prigozhin was steadily, during the course of the war, because of the apparent competence of Wagner, at least in seizing some parts of Ukrainian territory, such as Bakhmut, he's raised his public profile. He's got sort of a folksy style in the way that many Russians sort of see -- they find sympathetic in a way that Putin always used tough guy talk. Prigozhin also speaks in a sort of, kind of blunt, I mean, say, almost prisoner-speak. But that's sort of seen as cultivating this tough guy image.

So, where does that stand now? We saw that crowds were cheering him as he left Rostov last night, Kim.

BRUNHUBER: And then for the Wagner forces themselves, I mean, so integral to Moscow's war plans as those vital shock troops. What happens to them now?

[03:10:01]

HODGE: I mean, this is the question that's going to be on the mind of so many people inside of Russia. Remember that a good chunk of Prigozhin's forces, they were recruited from prisons and were essentially amnestied for fighting in Ukraine. And I think that there's a big fear that basically the state has given up its monopoly on the use of force.

And that even if the sort of the Wagner fighters are sort of somehow folds into the military, you've still got battle-hardened, battle- tested veterans of this very, very serious and very tough fight against Ukraine who essentially are going to be at large in Russian society. And how effectively Russia can fold them back into the military after their leader is essentially being forced in exile is a big question, Kim.

BRUNHUBER: All right. Finally, during the insurrection, we saw from some anti-Putin forces urging citizens to take up arms and join the insurrection. Was that the one shot at regime change under Putin, do you think? And do you think he will now crack down even harder to make sure nothing like this ever happens again?

HODGE: Kim, Putin has always seen himself on the receiving end of what he sees as a campaign of regime change, you know, led essentially by Washington. And that explains a lot of his support for dictators, whether it was Bashar al-Assad in Syria, his support for his horror at the ouster of Gaddafi in Libya.

But, I don't know if a regime change is -- well, regime change is essentially seen as kind of as a tool that's being directed at him, but obviously there are -- he's got trouble on his own borders with Ukraine. You know, there's been incursions by armed Russian groups, basically, saying that they are there going in to liberate their own country from his rule.

So, this hasn't been the only armed challenge inside of Russia to Putin's rule. But this, by far, was the most serious challenge that we've seen, not only since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine but in the more than 20 years that Putin has been in power. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right, I appreciate your analysis, Nathan Hodge in London, thanks so much.

Well, U.S. officials are being especially careful not to say anything publicly that the Kremlin might construe as interference, but the White House says it's closely monitoring developments.

CNN's Kevin Liptak has the latest from Washington. So, Kevin, as the White House was watching this play out, there must have been plenty of concern at what was unfolding.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes, there certainly was. And, remember, Russia is sitting on the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, and that was certainly something that I think officials were taking into account as they watched this unfold over the last two days.

And now, I think the biggest question being asked at the White House and at the Pentagon tonight is what does this mean for the war in Ukraine? Because on the face of it, it seems like a distracted Putin would potentially be good for the Ukrainians, but on the flipside, there is concern and there are questions being asked in Washington tonight about what Putin might do, how he might lash out if he feels like he needs to demonstrate some strength.

And I do think that that is what is informing this strategy that you have seen unfold of essentially not responding to what is happening on the ground there. There is a real desire among American officials and among European officials to not allow Putin to use as a pretext anything that might allow him to claim that this was some sort of American or NATO plot.

And so we have not heard President Biden react to this in any sort of substance. He did speak on the phone earlier today with the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom. And on that call, I'm told that those leaders did agree that this was the strategy that they would use going forward, to not allow Putin to use this as part of his claims.

Now, American officials have been watching this very closely, really, as far back as January. You heard officials say that they were seeing in their intelligence this power struggle between the Wagner Group and the Russian ministry of defense. And at the time, they said that they believed those tensions would mount over the coming months and they certainly did.

And now, earlier this month, we're told that the American intelligence agencies did brief the White House and the Pentagon, and, really, last week, they also briefed members of Congress that they did see preparations under way for the head of the Wagner Group to do what he eventually did.

But at the same time, I think that the speed at which this escalated over the last 24 hours, 48 hours, really did catch some American officials off guard.

[03:15:02]

And you did see a number of American officials, including the Joint Chiefs chairman, Mark Milley, as well as the American national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, have to cancel planned overseas travel so they could remain in Washington to deal with this crisis.

And so, certainly, President Biden will wake up tomorrow. He will continue to receive briefings, but certainly the question now is, what does this mean for Vladimir Putin and what does this mean for Russia going ahead. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right, thanks so much, Kevin Liptak in Washington. I appreciate it.

As we mentioned, U.S. lawmakers have been watching this and some Congressional leaders are weighing in now. Here's what some of them had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

REP. TIM BURCHETT (R-TN): You have to wonder, though, he got so close without any military raising a hand at all. And so that tells me there will be one of two things. Either that the Russians have, in fact -- keep away from this guy, or they were afraid to take him on, because, if you saw any of the pictures of him in some of the towns, people getting selfies with him, he was getting the rock star treatment. So, it's very interesting. And I would warn people that are anxious to see Putin dethroned, if this guy were to take over, he is a bloodthirsty SOB.

REP. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-AZ): Ukraine is a really good example of what happens when you actually have a country that is unified by an idea. They were invaded, and they stood together and fought. Russia basically had insurrection, nobody fought for Putin, which tells you which is the weaker country right now and which is where on what side the United States should be on.

The Russian plan has always been for us to stop us, as I say, United States and the west, to stop supporting Ukraine, to actually just wait us out. They think that if they wait us out, eventually Ukraine was (INAUDIBLE) the money and then they could overwhelm Ukraine.

Now, we know Russia is actually internally weak. The last thing we should do is end up not supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom and to gain back its land.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BRUNHUBER: All right. Just ahead, the Wagner mercenaries might be in Moscow right now were it not for the deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. We'll have details ahead.

Plus, Ukrainian react to the turmoil in Russia. Hear what President Zelenskyy thinks about Vladimir Putin's response to the crisis. That's coming up, please stay with us.

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[03:20:00]

BRUNHUBER: This hour, Russia is dealing with the aftermath of Mercenary Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's decision to call off his armed uprising against the military. The government still has some restrictions in place on a major highway, which Prigozhin's fighters used to advance toward Moscow.

Prigozhin says, he stopped the convoy and has withdrawn from a captured military facility after reaching a deal. The Kremlin says he will move to Belarus and will not face criminal charges.

His rebellion presented a huge threat to Vladimir Putin's grip on power. And according to Ukraine's president, it even frightened him. Here he is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENSKYY: The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Seeking to a capitalize on the chaos in Russia, the Ukrainian military launched multiple simultaneous counteroffensives on Saturday. According to Ukraine's deputy defense minister, the fighting took place in several cities and towns in the east, including Bakhmut, saying, quote, there is progress in all directions but not providing further details. She also acknowledged heavy fighting in southern Ukraine, where Russian forces are trying to halt Ukrainian advances.

Now, some everyday Ukrainians are echoing President Zelenskyy's sentiments and some say they enjoyed watching the standoff unfold between the Kremlin and the Wagner mercenaries. Have a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I enjoy what is happening out of Russia. The inevitable conflict between Prigozhin and Putin was expected. I don't know what may come out of it, but I wish for them to shoot each other and die.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Well, joining me now is, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukrainian defense minister. He's now a Chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. Thanks so much for being here with us.

So, when this armed insurrection was taking place, as we heard, there seemed to be plenty of Ukrainians happy at the prospect of Russians fighting Russians, what's the mood now?

ANDRIY ZAGORODNYUK, FORMER UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER: It was quite surreal from the beginning yesterday, because very few people expected that it would take such a rapid turn. And also it was very unclear what Prigozhin's realistic endgame was. So, I don't think we had too many expectations yesterday, and that's why today we're just watching the situation, how it unfolds.

BRUNHUBER: Yes, go ahead.

ZAGORODNYUK: I don't think that's the end of the story for Prigozhin, because, first of all, he needs to learn what we know that Putin doesn't honor any agreements. Secondly, obviously, Putin will consider this as a threat, so there will be some continuation of that story.

Also, we were quite shocked with the lower level of readiness of the troops inside Russia, because the rebel forces could move all along the country, almost without stopping them. The only reason it didn't escalate further is because Prigozhin decided to de-escalate.

And, finally, we clearly see the demise of the Wagner as an independent for personnel in the frontline. I mean, they will either disintegrate or they will be joining the Russian regular forces, which means that they will stop existing as an independent facility.

And we have to say that the only reasonable -- the like even only minor success of Russians over the last year was attributed specifically to that group. So, there would be some changes, obviously, in the Russian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian battlefront very soon.

BRUNHUBER: Yes. Let's dig into that a bit more, the loss of the Wagner forces, if that comes to pass, if they're integrated into the regular Russian military, there's that angle.

[03:25:00]

There's also perhaps a loss of morale for the Russian troops. How do you think all of this might change the war on the battlefield right now?

ZAGORODNYUK: Wagner had a very distinctively different doctrine comparing to the Russian regular forces. Right now, they will be integrated into the standard units. They will be part of the chain of command.

Russian generals will obviously be considering them immediately as a threat and as something, like some alien forces inside their own. So, I don't think they will be able to be as effective as they were before.

The efficiency rate before was attributed mainly to the very brutal tactic, even for Russians, to send like groups of them to die and then replace the others and die again, and so on and so on, but this tactic was quite difficult to deal with.

Now, Russian forces will use them as a standard infantry troops, and, basically, there will be a continuation of the Russian way of doing this war as a regular force.

BRUNHUBER: And you touched on this sentiment. I want to ask you directly. I mean, is there a risk that this challenge to Putin, this humiliation, might make him lash out even more at Ukraine to try to demonstrate strength?

ZAGORODNYUK: I don't think he has any reserves to do that. I think he is at maximum of his capacity. Whatever he could do before, he already tried. So, I think that possibilities for escalation for Putin are very limited right now.

And we have seen that, by the way, at how they kind of went for all resources and tried to pull together the forces in order to deal with Prigozhin. They didn't have much of reserves inside Russia. So, that means also that de-escalation potential for Russia, for Ukraine, is also very, very limited, if there is one at all.

BRUNHUBER: Now, even though is insurrection might be over, Prigozhin exposing the fiction surrounding the rationale for the war that's been so costly for Russia. What effect do you think that might have undermining the soldiers on the battlefield but also undermining perhaps support for the war back home, in Russia?

ZAGORODNYUK: Any conflict between the same side, like between the forces within the same side, is extremely damaging for morale. That's clear. So, when Russians are fighting against Russians, I mean, obviously, that damages morale significantly. We don't see right now what we call a revolution potential in Russia. I don't think that it's as bad as in 1917, as Putin said in his speech. Because indeed, at that time, there was like everybody was against everybody, there were groups are armies fighting each other. And so I don't think we have that situation in Russia right now, but certainly this is extremely dangerous sign.

So, the country which fights the war needs to be united, and Russia is definitely not united, and we saw that yesterday.

BRUNHUBER: Andriy Zagovrodnyuk, thank you so much for your expertise. I really appreciate it.

ZAGORODNYUK: Thank you.

BRUNHUBER: All right, up next, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has emerged as a dealmaker that helped stop the Wagner insurrection. So, what does this say about his stature and influence? We'll have a live report from London, coming up. Stay with us.

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[03:30:00]

BRUNHUBER: And welcome back to all of you watching us here in the United States, Canada and all around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber. This is CNN Newsroom.

We have this update from Russia where traffic is still restricted on the major highway that connects the capital to Rostov-on-Don to the south. A local Russian official says the highway is being repaired after it was damaged. Wagner mercenaries had been in the area.

As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin says it doesn't know where he is right now. He was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don in a vehicle, pausing briefly to shake hands and then driving away. Some Wagner mercenaries were halfway to the capital when Prigozhin abruptly ordered them back.

A personal appeal by the president of Belarus, a close Putin ally, is credited with persuading Prigozhin to call off his rebellion.

U.S. intelligence analysts say they suspected for a while that Prigozhin was planning something. Still, nobody saw it happening like this.

CNN's Natasha Bertrand has more from the Pentagon.

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: U.S. officials tell CNN that U.S. intelligence officials did have intelligence that Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning a potentially dramatic operation against Russian military leaders, and they briefed congressional leaders earlier this week, including members of the gang of eight, on a potentially dramatic move by Prigozhin against Russian leaders.

Now, it was unclear just what that would look like and when it would actually take place. And U.S. officials, as well as western and European officials, they were caught off guard by the speed with which this occurred late Friday night and into Saturday.

It was not clear just how far Yevgeny Prigozhin would be willing to take his grudge against Russian military leaders, though it is something that U.S. and western officials had been watching very closely over the last several months, as Prigozhin and as Russian military leaders have been feuding over the war in Ukraine with Prigozhin accusing Russian military leadership of essentially leaving Russian troops and Prigozhin's troops to die without sufficient equipment and ammunition.

Now, U.S. officials scrambled on Friday night to get a hold over what was actually happening and emergency meetings were called across the entire government about the rapidly unfolding situation. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, was also scheduled to travel to the Middle East this weekend, a trip that he actually ended up canceling in order to stay in Washington and monitor the unfolding events.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was also scheduled to take a trip to Denmark to attend a conference, but he ended up attending that conference virtually instead. And he is now at Camp David with President Biden and is briefing him on all of the latest updates with regard to what is going on in Russia.

So, U.S. and western officials continuing to monitor all these fast- moving developments very closely, however, it is unclear at this point to U.S. and western officials just how far Yevgeny Prigozhin is willing to go with regard to his challenge of Russian military leadership in the future.

Natasha Bertrand, CNN, Washington.

BRUNHUBER: Since the war in Ukraine begun 16 months ago, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been one of Vladimir Putin's few close allies. He played a role in bringing Saturday's crisis to an end through a negotiated settlement between Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin before the situation escalated even further.

[03:35:04]

CNN's Chief U.S. Security Correspondent Jim Sciutto explains.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF U.S.; SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: You had an open rebellion against Putin's leadership with forces marching on Moscow, and Lukashenko able to play a role, at least, in defusing that situation for now. And now, if Russian officials are to be believed, this is where Prigozhin is going to end up. The thing is Belarus is effectively the extension of Russia.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: All right. Let's take a closer look at the role Belarus played in all of this. I'm joined by CNN's Salma Abdelaziz in London. So, Salma, it was a bit of a surprise to many that Lukashenko would play such a key role here. So, walk us through what happened.

SALMA ABDELAZIZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's not necessarily surprising that President Putin turned to Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. He is a close ally, someone who owes Putin, if you will. It is president Putin who stepped in after the 2020 elections in Belarus to bolster a very fierce crackdown by Alexander Lukashenko on the opposition, when it appeared that he could lose power, lose his throne. And Lukashenko has paid President Putin back by, essentially allowing him to use his country as a satellite state during the invasion of Ukraine.

President Putin has launched attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. He has housed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. And now he is going to be hosting what is President Putin's greatest challenger since he took power over two decades ago.

There's still a lot of questions, though, surrounding this deal. Most of the information we know comes from the Kremlin itself. We've heard very little from Prigozhin. The last images we have are the ones that you played of him believe leaving Rostov-on-Don, with crowds cheering him. He did, of course, acknowledged that he's pulled back from that march on Moscow.

But what role will Yevgeny Prigozhin play in Belarus? This is a man who has been loud, who has been bombastic, who has been antagonistic. You cannot imagine that he will go quietly into the night. The first question is what semblance of control will he have over Wagner troops, if at all?

Part of the deal is that all Wagner mercenaries need to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. That means they're going to be absorbed into the Russian army. But will that work effectively? The second question is what role does he continue to play, if at all again, in the conflict on Ukraine?

Regardless of the future of Prigozhin, the damage he has done here is done. He has dealt a blow to President Putin. He has for months showed up the Russian army, and now he's shown up President Putin himself, sending those tanks right towards Moscow, being accused of treason and then seeing the Kremlin do a U-turn.

And we know, Kim, what President Putin does to his enemies, to those who are perceived to have any threat against his power. He jails them, he poisons them, he disappears them. But it seems in the case of Prigozhin, he's allowed the comfort of exile.

BRUNHUBER: And then, Salma, what are they saying about this turn of events in Belarus?

ABDELAZIZ: This is extremely important. Again, there's a very strong opposition in Belarus, one that was fiercely cracked down upon, human rights group say in 2021. I do have a quote I want to read you from the opposition candidate, who said she was forced into exile because of that crackdown. If we could pull that up, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who said, today, we watched the Russian military monster devour itself. Now, it's more important than ever to unite for a free Belarus. I call on the international community to support the people of Belarus and help us secure our freedom and independence against those who want to enslave us.

Again, this is the way that critics of President Putin, that much of the western world is going to see this, that at a time when President Putin was in need, he turned to a close ally, Alexander Lukashenko. The question is why did he turn to Lukashenko over maybe his own Russian military leaders for help? He says, of course, President Putin, the Kremlin says, to avoid bloodshed.

And then, of course, the question to that is, does that tighten President Putin's grip over Belarus? When the Ukraine war started and that fierce resistance was seen by the Ukrainian people, many Belarusians took that as an opportunity, as a sign that potentially there was hope for a free Belarus. And throughout this conflict, they've held on to that hope.

And now that there's this sign of weakness when it comes to President Putin's authority, now that he's been shown up by Prigozhin to not only be the one and only man who holds that monopoly of power, I think they're going to hold on to that hope even tighter.

[03:40:07]

BRUNHUBER: All right. Salma Abdelaziz in London, thank you so much.

Up next, it's been a tumultuous 24-hours in Russia. We'll show you how everyday Russians feel about Prigozhin's abruptly ended insurrection and how it may affect Vladimir Putin. That's coming up. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BRUNHUBER: The Wagner insurrection ended not long after it began. Listen to how some Russians feel about the recent developments which shook their country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALEXANDER, MOSCOW RESIDENT: I think those people should meet and talk. We are one country and must fight together against an external enemy, and internal quarrels are totally inappropriate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: One Russian opposed to the Putin government said his organization was following the abruptly ending insurrection with great interest. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALEXEI BARANOVSKIY, FREEDOM OF RUSSIAN LEGION: The more Putinists, Kadyrovites, Prigozhinites, FSB, and police kill each other, the better, the less work we will have. It is also good for Ukraine. It looks like a nice time to strengthen the counteroffensive. But it is for the military leadership to decide how to act in such circumstances.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: So, what are the Russian attitudes towards the Wagner Group and its chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin and how they feel about the insurrection? Well, the company, FilterLabs, is trying to get a sense of that, partly by looking at discussions on Russian social media and internet forums. It compares these online discussions to the official reporting on state media to gauge the difference between the two.

And I'm joined now by Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs. Thanks so much for being here with us. So, first, just a basic question to frame this, obviously the Kremlin keeps tight control over information in the news media and online.

[03:45:00]

So, how much do you think Russians knew about what was unfolding around them?

JONATHAN TEUBNER, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, FILTERLABS: That's a good question. It was clearly getting into the information environment through many different channels. Once it was kind of going on, that was kind of middle of the day yesterday. So, there was discussion and there was a lot of chatter throughout it.

And part of it is the Russian information system. They tried -- the Kremlin tried its best to keep it out and keep mentions of particularly Prigozhin limited. But they weren't ever -- they weren't able to limit very successfully mentions of Wagner Group. And so, it was very clear they're being discussed.

And they didn't know the details of it. There was -- and I think for many, what exactly happened, and how it was negotiated, this is probably going to remain murky for many of them.

BRUNHUBER: All right. So, big picture, what did your analysis show in terms of what was being discussed and how much support, if any, Prigozhin was generating online?

TEUBNER: That's -- yes. So, what we found was that he has pockets of support. A lot of it is in the south. Particularly how he's received in Rostov, the city that he did successfully take over without firing a shot, there was a lot of selfies and applauding the Wagner Group as they were kind of retreating there, taking selfies with them. So, that was clearly a lot of support there.

When it got into Moscow, there wasn't popular support for him. And, actually, as they started to kind of over the last few days message about this, and as this was becoming more of reality out there, support for him was taking a very sharp negative turn, suggesting that he didn't really have the popular support that he would need if he wanted to fully go through with this and get the defections from the Ministry of Defense that he would need to really unseat so Shoigu, the defense minister.

BRUNHUBER: All right. So, given how close Prigozhin came, do you think that Putin will clamp down, restrict access to information and discourse even more?

TEUBNER: I think he would like to, but he's not able to. The Russian information environment is far more porous. They don't control absolutely all of the avenues of information in. A lot of people in the west, for example, can get polish T.V. And so there's a limit that he has.

And so what he's often tried to do is just confuse the story. He's going to have to create a new narrative out of this. And so this will be probably -- perhaps this becomes an excuse for why they're having trouble in Ukraine on the battlefield, or he'll return to the kind of predictable narrative around it that would suggest that this was a western-led and inspired coup against Putin. So, he's going to have to re-narrate it. He's not going to be able to cut off information. Russia is not China in that respect.

BRUNHUBER: Yes, the narrative obviously so important here. So, as the war has dragged on and become more costly from a Russian casualty point of view, I know that you found the public sentiment in Russia has turned more negative. You've said in the past that a single event like a big reverse on the battlefield, for instance, doesn't change overall support for the war, but this insurrection, the fact that Russia came so close, perhaps, to civil war, and Prigozhin exposing the central myth of that so-called special operation. What effect do you think that that might have on some support for the war?

TEUBNER: That's what we're closely tracking. Because, you know, I think what I was previously referring to as a large battlefield event, not that this like almost insurrection within Russia. And what I think this probably does is destabilize Putin's like sheen of power that he has. He's not as powerful as he tries to project and as many in the west think he is. He relies on a whole network and a system to work favors that he's holding in place.

And now that they have one case of someone going after him and at least, right now, it looks like, getting a brokered deal and simply being sent into exile, that normalizes some probably more attacks on Putin's power.

The Russian people itself might, as individuals in Russia have said, is that they really dislike this infighting in there. This is -- they can't ignore it now. It's very much a part of the popular Russian view of it. And that could just further erode some support. We'll be tracking that pretty closely over the next few weeks to see whether this does have any impact.

BRUNHUBER: Yes, it will be fascinating to see if minds were changed, and we'll have to have you back on to report your findings.

[03:50:02]

Jonathan Teubner, thanks so much for being here with us. TEUBNER: Yes, thank you.

BRUNHUBER: The ruling new democracy party of Greece is looking to win the majority of votes this time as Greeks go to the polls for the second time in two months. We'll have details coming up after the break. Stay with us.

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BRUNHUBER: Right now in Russia, things are calm after an armed insurrection by Wagner Paramilitary Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin ended abruptly. Prigozhin has agreed to leave the country and head to Belarus thanks to deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. In return, Kremlin's Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says Russia withdraws the criminal case against them. And he says Wagner fighters who marched toward Moscow will face no legal action and can sign contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry.

Well, before we go, here are some of today's other top stories that we're following. Canada has launched an investigation into the fatal Titan submersible implosion. Investigators will be reviewing voice recordings and data from the mothership, the Polar Prince, which carried the vessel and its five occupants to the site of the Titanic wreckage last week.

[03:55:03]

Investigators have been speaking with those who traveled aboard the Polar Prince. They're looking into whether any criminal, federal or provincial laws were possibly broken.

The polls are open in Greece, as voters cast ballots into the second election in as many months. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis ruling new democratic -- new democracy party, rather, won big in the first election in May but failed to get an outright majority and other party leaders refused to form a coalition government.

The election comes amidst a cost of living crisis and uncertainty about Greece's economic future. It comes just over a week after a boat carrying hundreds of migrants sank off the coast of Greece, raising questions whether the Greek Coast Guard may have contributed to the disaster.

And, finally, crowds of worshippers are returning to Mecca, many of them on a pilgrimage as the Hajj begins. They will make solemn circles of slams holiest site. Record crowds of more than 2 million are expected from 160 countries over four days during the annual ritual. It's one of five pillars of Islam, which Muslims with the means must complete once in their lives. The dream has come, said one believer.

I'm Kim Brunhuber. Thanks for watching. CNN's special coverage continues after a quick break with Max Foster in London.

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