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Refinery Fire That Erupted After Wagner Clashed with Russian Troops has Been Extinguished; Kremlin Says Some Wagner Mercenaries Will Sign Contracts with Russia's Military; To Avoid Bloodshed, Prigozhin Reached an Agreement with Kremlin; Moscow Claims To Be Unaware Of Prigozhin's Current Whereabouts; U.S. Intelligence Believes Prigozhin has Been Planning A Military Challenge; Prigozhin-led Insurgency Comes to an End; Kremlin: Russia Will Drop Charges Against Prigozhin, He Will Travel to Belarus Under a Deal Mediated by Belarus; U.S. Officials Mindful of Saying Anything that Moscow Might Interpret as Interference; Interview with Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Senior Fellow Alexander Baunov; Insurrection's Impact on Russian Economy; Aftermath of Brief Wagner Rebellion; Prigozhin Last Seen Leaving Rostov-on-Don After Suddenly Ceasing His Insurgency; During the Insurgency, U.S. Saw No Change in Russia's Nuclear Stance; Interview with Financial Times Moscow Bureau Chief Max Seddon; After a Russian Missile Attack on Kyiv Left Three People Killed; Trying to Control the Flow of Information; During Rebellion, Moscow Attempted to Stifle Information by Blocking Certain Internet Sites. Aired 4-5a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[04:00:00]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN, the world's news network.

MAX FOSTER, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Max Foster in London.

And we begin with a dramatic turn of events in Russia. At this hour, Moscow is calm but traffic restrictions are still in place on a major highway connecting the capital with south western Russia. And a refinery fire that started after an apparent clash between Wagner mercenaries and Russian troops has been put out. All that is happening after insurrection led by Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. It came to an end as suddenly as it started.

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(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: That is video Wagner troops shooting in the air as they pulled out of the city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday. Earlier, the Kremlin said they cut a deal with Prigozhin to stop the march of its forces -- of his forces to Moscow. After that deal, the Kremlin says, Wagner troops will not face any legal action, but they'll sign new contracts with Russia's defense ministry. While Moscow will drop its charges against Prigozhin, he will go to Belarus. Wagner's leader said he agreed to that in order to avoid bloodshed.

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YEVGENY PRIGHOZIN, HEAD OF WAGNER PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANY (through translator): Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: The Kremlin says, it doesn't know where Prigozhin is right now. This is a video of people cheering as he left Rostov-on-Don where his troops seized military facilities on Saturday. Officials now tell CNN the U.S. intelligence believes Prigozhin was planning to challenge Russia's military leadership for a while. Whilst Washington did not see any change in Russia's nuclear posture during that turmoil. Ivan Watson explains how Prigozhin's insurrection started and what it says about the Kremlin's grip on power.

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IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): A weekend of chaos and drama in Russia. Mercenaries declared a mutiny and then called it off in under 24 hours.

PRIGOZHIN (through translator): Those who destroyed our guys today, along with tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I ask no one to put up any resistance. Justice for the troops will be restored, and then justice for all of Russia.

WATSON (voiceover): Yevgeny Prigozhin issued a call for rebellion. The head of the Wagner Mercenary Group accusing top Russian military commanders of gross mismanagement of the war in Ukraine.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (Speaking in a foreign language).

WATSON (voiceover): Then Prigozhin released video of an alleged Russian airstrike on a Wagner camp in Ukraine demanding revenge, Russia's defense ministry denied the attack. And soon Russia's top prosecutor announced criminal charges against Prigozhin. Then in the early hours of Saturday, Prigozhin followed through on his threats, sending his fighters across the border from Ukraine back into Russia. Footage surfaced at dawn showing Wagner fighters surrounding the military headquarters in the southern Russian City of Rostov. Some locals stood nearby watching. At around 7:30 a.m., Prigozhin was then shown dressing down senior Russian military leaders and issuing demands.

PRIGOZHIN (through translator): Again, we came here, we want to receive the chief of general staff and Shoigu. Until they show up, until they show up, we are located here. Blockading the City of Rostov and we'll go to Moscow.

WATSON (voiceover): Video showed columns of Wagner troops heading north towards the capital. Along the way, claiming control of military installations in the Voronezh region. Footage later showed at least one Russian helicopter narrowly avoiding a missile. At 10:00 a.m. Moscow time, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, made a televised address to the nation, calling the rebellion a stab in the back.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): All those who deliberately chose the path of treachery, who prepared an armed mutiny, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods will face inevitable punishment, and will answer both to the law and to our people.

[04:05:00]

WATSON (voiceover): The Kremlin announced counterterrorism measures, tightening security in Moscow. But by Saturday night, suddenly a Kremlin reversal. Putin spokesman announced a deal. Prigozhin released an audio message saying his troops would turn around and go back to field camps to avoid shedding Russian blood.

CROWD: Wagner. Wagner. Wagner. Wagner.

WATSON (voiceover): Supporters chanted Wagner as fighters drove out of Rostov, giving Prigozhin handshakes as he left in this SUV. The Kremlin says, it's dropped charges and Prigozhin will go to Belarus, while promising his fighters contracts with the Russian military. For now, a crisis apparently averted, but this very public betrayal and the mercenary short but unimpeded march on Moscow reveals deep weakness at the heart of the Putin regime. Ivan Watson, CNN.

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FOSTER: CNN is covering every angle of this developing story. Kevin Liptak is in Washington. Salma Abdelaziz is here in London.

I'm going to start with you, Salma, just to get the latest. We don't know where Prigozhin actually is right now, do we?

SALMA ABDELAZIZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, we don't. And much of what we know about the deal so far, Max, comes directly from the Kremlin, besides that statement that you heard in Ivan Watson's package there were Prigozhin acknowledges that he's pulling his men back from the highway towards Moscow. We've received very little information on where he is going -- sorry, I'm putting my mic on very quickly, Max, there -- on where he is and how quickly he will get to Belarus.

There are few questions, of course, that we need to ask. First of all, part of the deal is that the Wagner mercenaries would sign military contracts with the Russian ministry of defense. Essentially be absorbed into the Russian army. What does that look like? Could that effectively happen? Do these men -- are they able to switch loyalties from Prigozhin to the organized Russian military? Does Prigozhin from Belarus play any role at all, whether that is over the Wagner mercenaries or over the continuing conflict in Ukraine?

Regardless of the outcome for Prigozhin, who is now of course under the protection of Alexander Lukashenko, who, according to the Kremlin, has been given the guarantees from President Putin himself for his safety who will now leave in exile in this state that is essentially been a satellite country for President Putin. The damage he has done to President Putin's standing is done. He has been, Prigozhin, for months now, showing up the Russian military. And what he did in the last 48 hours is show up President Putin himself, demonstrating he is not the only man in Russia with a monopoly of power. He's really pierced that strongman image.

And that weakness, showing that weakness is, of course, going to be a lasting issue for President Putin. So, how does he come back from that? Does it mean a fiercer crackdown in Russia? We know how President Putin has handled enemies or perceived threats in the past. He jails them, he poisons them, he disappears them, except in the case of Prigozhin, he gives him comfortable exile.

And then, of course, you have the elite -- the Russian elite that continue to carry out President Putin's bidding, the military leadership in the country that have been leading the war in Ukraine, they are deeply damaged by Yevgeny Prigozhin who, for months, publicly embarrassed them, publicly lambasted them, publicly antagonized them without President Putin stepping in. Now, President Putin turning to Lukashenko rather than his own Russian military leaders to deal with the problem that is Prigozhin.

Where is the outcome there? How do they continue to stand by President Putin who being looks weaker and who has allowed them to be, again, publicly embarrassed in this way? So many questions. We cannot begin to speculate the thinking of President Putin, but absolutely, this is the greatest challenge he's faced in his more than two decades of rule. It has absolutely pierced that strongman image, and he's still very much has an -- has a threat arrival in the form of Prigozhin waiting in the wings. I don't expect that he will go silently into the night given just how loud of a figure he's been.

FOSTER: Absolutely. Definitely seeing what his next move is. But is there -- I see this theory that either the Kremlin or the ministry of defense, the military wanted to break up Wagner, that's what this was about. And ultimately haven't they achieved that by effectively bringing Wagner fighters into the military and sending Prigozhin effectively into exile?

[04:10:00]

ABDELAZIZ: I think it is too early to really tell what they have been able to accomplish. There's a couple of things we need to know here. First of all, Prigozhin's Wagner group is, in many ways, much of them are made up of criminal elements. People who were begin amnesty to fight in Ukraine, fight for the Wagner mercenary group, and then given amnesty from prison. What happens to those criminal elements? Can they easily be co-opted into the Russian army?

And again, throughout the last few months, we've seen Prigozhin really create this divide. Calling out Russia's military leadership. Essentially saying that they're corrupt, lazy and unable to fight the war in Ukraine. Do those men who were listening to Prigozhin, just two, three days ago, do they now turn to Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defence Minister, who Prigozhin has essentially been poking fun at for months and pledge loyalty there? Will that be simply enough?

And what happens to the Ukraine war? I mean, Russia has been on the back foot other than the victory in Bakhmut, which was claimed by Prigozhin himself in the last few months. There has been very few gains. Ukraine, on the other hand, is speeding up its counteroffensive, trying to push back Russian forces on the ground. What takes place in that conflict? And then again, back home, what does this look like?

We know that those of Russian soldiers, Russian fighters have come back in body bags, those numbers vary, of course, when it comes to the death toll. But Russians have felt this war coming closer and closer to home. You will remember the partial mobilization and there were demonstrations against that. We know, of course, that there has been anger about the economic impact on the war, and now this. Something that President Putin himself called an armed insurrection. Something that his close -- that members of the Kremlin said could be the threat, the specter of civil war, the threat of bloodshed, of Russians on Russians on Russian soil. How do you come back from all of that?

There is just so much here to break down. But in the meanwhile, you're going to see a President Putin who's going to try to stabilize and strengthen his position and demonstrate that he's very much in control despite everything that has unfolded.

FOSTER: Salma, thank you. Back with you throughout the morning.

CNN's Kevin Liptak is following the reaction in Washington to this extraordinary situation. And it does feels as though politicians, at least, were very much called out by what happened yesterday.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes, very much so. And I think the question that's being asked in Washington, at the White House and at the Pentagon, is what this means for the war in Ukraine. Because on the face of things, a distracted President Putin does seem like he would be a good thing for the Ukrainians. But I think on the flip side, the question that President Biden's aides are asking tonight is what would happen if President Putin were to lash out if he did feel like he needed to demonstrate some strength?

And I think that is what is informing the strategy that you're seeing here and also in European capitals not really responding directly to what is happening on the ground in Russia. You have not heard President Biden and other leaders of NATO nations come out and talk explicitly about what is happening there. And I think the reason for that is they don't want to provide President Putin a pretext for accusing the west, NATO, the United States of orchestrating this plot against him.

And in fact, when President Biden got on the phone earlier today with the leaders of France, Britain and Germany, that was something that they could all agree on. President Biden really did make the point that he didn't want to provide Putin with this rationale. And so, you have heard mostly silence from those leaders.

But as you mentioned, U.S. intelligence has been tracking this sort of dynamic for months, really as far back as January. We heard from White House officials, intelligence official, that they did detect this power struggle between the Russian ministry of defense and the Wagner group. An official said at the time that they expected it to mount, they expected it to escalate, and certainly, it did.

Over the course of the last few weeks, American intelligence officials have briefed officials of the White House and at the Pentagon that they did see head of the Wagner group making preparations to take the steps that he eventually did take. They also briefed members of Congress on this. But at the same time, I think that people at the White House were caught off guard by how quickly this escalated over the last 48 hours or so.

And that's really best illustrated by the fact that the number of officials were planning overseas travel that they had to scrap, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and the American National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan who has -- was supposed to be in Copenhagen for talks on Ukraine, instead he remained here in Washington. He did travel with President Biden to Camp David, the presidential retreat. President Biden is still there.

[04:15:00]

He will be there tomorrow continually getting briefed on this, but certainly a lot to digest for President Biden and other leaders in the coming days ahead, Max.

FOSTER: Yes. Absolutely. Kevin in Washington, thank you.

We are joined now by Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, speaking with us from Florence in Italy. Thank you so much for joining us. I mean --

ALEXANDER BAUNOV, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE RUSSIA EURASIA CENTER: Hi.

FOSTER: -- yesterday was so fast moving, wasn't it? And then it -- suddenly, all seemed to be over. Have you any sense from your contacts about what happened? What was this deal that Prigozhin reached with Belarus?

BAUNOV: Well, first of all, a multitude of different interpretations, including some conspiracy. Like, whether it's -- the question was, was it a general battle with the Kremlin or it all has been staged with the end goal, well, to displace the Defence Minister Shoigu, or to transfer (ph) to a full-fledge scale dictatorship?

I don't think these complicated explanations are true. President Vladimir Putin has never needed to stage anything to cover up his most radical decisions, including the war against Ukraine, let alone the personal decisions. His regime has become increasingly depressive on its own without any particular pretext. So, it was the, sort of, general move or were -- let's say, angry soldiers or somebody, Prigozhin, who wanted to exploit, to use this mood of anger about the failures in the frontline in the war against Ukraine.

FOSTER: We've been showing some images of Prigozhin leaving the military base that he took over. And you see all of these cheering crowds and he's really treated like a hero, isn't he? Is that one of the most damaging images for Putin? There are -- you know, someone who was effectively challenging him, being treated like a superstar by Russians?

BAUNOV: Absolutely. First, we haven't seen this cheering crowd which replicates somehow the scenes of, let -- let's call it, call of revolution when the population, the cities in spar greeting, or giving flowers, or reaching the mutinying uprise soldiers. And the last 20 years, the Russian population, Russian citizens were taught by state TV, by propaganda, by officials that the worst thing that can happen to Russia is a call of revolution.

And then we see, well today, restrictive, of course, area in just one town, the scenes where you see the police. And then, of course, it damages very much the I.G. of the consensus of the majority of the population. So, the division -- dividing line was there were liberals, traitors, question (ph) part of the Russian citizens who are against the war, and against the authorities and against Putin and against their own motherland.

Now, inside the camp of those who are generally supporting the war and supporting the -- supporting Russia in its confrontation against the west, there is a major split because, well, we see one ideology of the war, the writer (ph), the (INAUDIBLE) moving its battle unit against the other ideologies and supporters of the war. A hero in the eyes of those who support the war, Yevgeny Prigozhin . And it's -- this damage cannot be overcome easily.

FOSTER: Just -- obviously, you've been studying Prigozhin for many years, right? From, you know, he was a petty criminal, wasn't he, effectively? Then he had a burger stand, then he had this catering business, the media business, ultimately the military business, it's a commercial private military, isn't it? And making lots of money. Are we meant to believe that he's just going to disappear off to Belarus? I mean, what's he going to do there? I mean, what do you think he'll do?

BAUNOV: We cannot be sure it's a final act of the drama, let's say. And Prigozhin, of course, has made a significant way since the beginning as he started as a provider of some services to the Kremlin many years ago. Providing the services that the state on its own didn't want to be implicated. Like, some adventures -- military adventures in Africa or in Syria, or famous troll factory with meddling in different elections.

[04:20:00]

Then last fall, he suddenly started something that is very similar to conducting to a full-scale pre-election coup (ph), pre-election prepends like trips in the region and state and its own key domestic and foreign policy issues. Exploiting this anti-elitist mood and the search for whom to blame for the failures in the war and for the way the war that didn't went -- didn't go as planned in the eyes of the majority of Russian population.

FOSTER: OK. Alexander Baunov --

BAUNOV: We gave increasingly -- I mean, he started -- yes.

FOSTER: Thank you so much for your time and your insight there. It's fascinating to hear, you know, someone who studied him for so long. While he is the mercenary leader who led that uprising against Russia's defense establishment, and it seems to have gotten away unscathed. What else do we know about Yevgeny Prigozhin? Coming up after the break.

Plus, what impact could the Prigozhin insurrection have on the Russian economy? We'll dive into that a bit later this hour.

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[04:25:00]

FOSTER: Welcome back. Let's get more on our top story this hour. Russian President Vladimir Putin has survived the most serious challenge for his rule that he's ever seen. The Kremlin says, Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has cut a deal to end an insurrection and stop his mercenaries from advancing as well into Moscow in an armed convoy.

Under the deal, the Kremlin says, Wagner troops will not face any legal action, but they'll sign new contracts with Russia's defense ministry. And Moscow will also drop criminal charges against Prigozhin who has agreed to move to Belarus. Although the immediate crisis has been averted, one analyst told us earlier that the danger to the Russian president is far from over. Robert English from the University of Southern California says Prigozhin doesn't have to be inside Russia to pose a formidable threat.

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ROBERT ENGLISH, DIRECTOR, CENTRAL EUROPEAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: He lost. He stood down. Putin won. But Prigozhin is, sort of, like a Caesar in exile, right? Someone who can still threaten from abroad. Someone who has enormous credibility as a military leader. Who has loyal troops, although he is separated from them for now. And someone whose anti-corruption, anti-elite. His anger at the, sort of, self-satisfied oligarchs in Moscow resonates very strongly. So, he could be a future threat as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Prigozhin went from being known as Putin's chef to serving up an armed revolt. Now, the Wagner group's strongman is heading for Belarus, or he's meant to be. Our CNN Fred Pleitgen takes a closer look at the mercenary leader. He maybe one of the first major Putin challengers to emerge unscathed, at least for now.

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FRED PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Yevgeny Prigozhin certainly seems to have had a pretty meteoric rise. Now, on one hand, that was because he was so close to Vladimir Putin. However, he was pretty important for Vladimir Putin as well.

If you look at the beginnings, it really was pretty small at the start. He was in jail in the 1980s, in the Soviet Union, and started selling hot dogs in the 1990s in St. Petersburg. Now, it was there that he founded a catering company and became known as Putin's chef. And from there, things really went up for Yevgeny Prigozhin. He started a media company, which then turned into a media and propaganda empire, which, of course, the U.S. says meddled heavily in the 2016 presidential election. Yevgeny Prigozhin was actually indicted for that in the United States.

But then there was also the Wagner private military company. And I saw them and action, really at the beginning, when they were starting to go to places like Syria. And on the ground in Syria, their forces back then were pretty much doing base protection for the Russian military that was on the ground in Syria. But from there, things really did involve -- did evolve. They started getting involved in the oil business in Syria, then, of course, also things like gold and diamonds in African countries, and started training the forces of African countries as well.

But it really wasn't until the war in Ukraine that Wagner turned into pretty much a full-on army with really heavy weapons. If you look at the battle in Bakhmut, for instance, some of the firepower that was unleashed there by the artillery, by the tanks that Wagner now had in its possession, that certainly seemed to be a very professional army. And it was now that Yevgeny Prigozhin seemed to be at the height of his power, but it appears as though he's gone one step too far.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Earlier, my colleague, Kim Brunhuber, spoke with Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister. They spoke about Saturday's extraordinary events, and what the insurrection might mean for Wagner group going forward.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDRIY ZAGORODNYUK, FORMER UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER: I don't think we had too many expectations yesterday. And that's why, today we're just watching the situation how it unfolds.

KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Yes --

ZAGORODNYUK: Personally, I don't think that the --

BRUNHUBER: Yes, go ahead.

ZAGORODNYUK: I don't think that's the end of the story for Prigozhin because, first of all, he needs to learn what we all know that Putin doesn't honor any agreements. Secondly, obviously, Putin will consider this as a threat, so there will be some continuation of that story.

Also, we were quite shocked with the low level of readiness of the troops inside Russia because the rebel forces could move all along the country almost without stopping. And the only reason it didn't escalate further is because Prigozhin decided to de-escalate.

And finally, we clearly see the demise of the Wagner as an independent foreign (ph) personnel on the front line. I mean, they will either disintegrate or they will be joining the Russian regular forces which means that they will stop existing as the independent facility. And we have to say that the only reasonable -- the only, like, even minor success of Russians over the last year was attributed specifically to that group. So, there will be some changes, obviously, in the Russian armed forces and Ukrainian battle front very soon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[04:30:00]

FOSTER: Well, the threat of the insurrection in Russia has been narrowly avoided, but the fallout over the instance is just beginning. We'll have the latest in a live report from a former CNN Moscow bureau chief coming up.

Plus, what effect, if any, will the insurrection have on Russia's economy? We'll get insight from an expert after this break.

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FOSTER: Welcome back to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Max Foster in London. This is "CNN Newsroom", bringing you up-to-date on the latest situation in Russia.

Traffic remains restricted on this major highway that connects Moscow to Rostov-on-Don after Wagner forces left the area. A local Russian official says, the highway sustained damage and is being repaired. As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin says, it doesn't know where he is right now. He was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don in a vehicle, pausing briefly to shake hands, then driving away. The U.S. intelligence community says, it suspected for some time that Prigozhin was planning such a move, but they didn't expect it to happen so quickly or be called off only a few hours later.

Joining me now, CNN's Nathan Hodge, formerly our Mocow bureau chief. And I want to ask you about Belarus because -- playing a crucial role, it seems, in negotiating this very quick settlement. Do we think Prigozhin really is on his way there?

NATHAN HODGE, FORMER CNN MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF: I mean, Max, we have more questions than we have answers on all of this. But especially the role of Belarus and the role of Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko.

[04:35:00]

I mean, the first on my mind is, how did it come to pass that Lukashenko, who's essentially the junior partner in the relationship with Putin ends up being the man who, at least in the Kremlin's account, saves Putin's bacon yesterday by helping to negotiate this de-escalation with Prigozhin? And now, -- so, where is Prigozhin? We haven't seen him pop up in Belarus to the best of our knowledge. And it's not clear what -- how he understands the terms of this apparent deal.

Most of what we understand about this, the bear outlines, we have only from the Kremlin spokesman last night and from Lukashenko's press office. So, really, I'm -- it's stunning to see Lukashenko, kind of, muscle his way back onto the stage here at a moment when, you know, Russian leadership seemed to have been, well, almost catastrophically frozen.

So, it's very hard to say, you know, where this goes from now. How the Belarus-Russian relationship emerges here. And Belarus itself has faced, you know, protests that have, you know, threatened Lukashenko's hold on power. So, the situation is, you know, is far from resolved on all fronts there, Max.

FOSTER: You would have thought -- if people see Prigozhin as a threat to Putin, he's certainly going to be a threat to Lukashenko. Smaller country, you know, a weaker leader. What on Earth is he going to do in Belarus?

HODGE: Yes. Well, Max, I don't think that he's going to be opening a hot dog stand anytime soon. It's -- again, it's totally unclear. The Kremlin says they don't know what he's going to be doing there. When, you know, will some of entourage, some of his fighters be following him there? You know, supposedly, you know, Wagner fighters are supposed to be now folded into the Russian military.

But again, I -- it's sort of a rather baffling to contemplate, you know, the idea that Prigozhin, who has raised his public profile so extraordinarily inside of Russia is just going to go, sort of, quietly into the night and tend to a garden in Belarus. I -- it just -- it defies all logic. But again, we don't have much of an idea from either the Belarusian side, you know, where is he physically going to be located?

And again, we need to take everything that we get from the Kremlin with a, you know, heaping dose of salt. Are these the real terms of the deal? Will Prigozhin actually go? And most importantly, will the fighters who are loyal to him, you know, go easily into and be incorporated into the Russian military, Max?

FOSTER: In terms of how the rest of the world is viewing this, as confused as we are, presumably, and trying to get what intel they can to figure out what's happening within Russia and how that might break out and have an effect on the rest of the world and the war in Ukraine obviously.

HODGE: I -- Max, I mean, I think foremost on the minds of, for instance, policymakers in Washington, people who are really, sort of, watching the situation unfold is, number one, what's the security of, you know, Russia's massive nuclear arsenal? And again, Belarus plays into this because, you know, Putin and Lukashenko have announced that they would be shifting tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Belarus.

And again, whether this is, sort of, an exercise in saber rattling, we don't know. I mean -- but what we do know is that Russia has an enormous, enormous, nuclear arsenal. And when the very monopoly -- the state's monopoly on this -- on the use of force is being threatened, and this armed force of Prigozhin can essentially march right up unopposed through central highway, you know, in -- during the day in Russia, you know, really challenges the idea that Russian institutions are stable.

It raises serious questions about, you know, command and control inside of Russia. It's pretty clear already from the outset that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine lacked any unity of command. And now, we're face with this scenario of even, you know, further disarray within Russia. So, I would say, you know, by all accounts very troubling days ahead, Max.

FOSTER: Yes, absolutely. Nathan, thank you.

Let's bring in Max Seddon, and he is the Moscow bureau chief for the "Financial Times". We'll talk about the markets in just a moment because that might be one of the impacts we'll feel tomorrow, right? But first of all, what are your thoughts about all of this? Putin must have seen this coming, this feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military. Why did he not step in sooner? And why do you think he eventually came up with some sort of solution via Belarus?

MAX SEDDON, MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF, FINANCIAL TIMES: Well, I think, honestly, he just thought that, you know, he had all the cards in his pocket because Prigozhin was always so dependent on Russia for his power, his wealth and influence. Wagner has always -- it was funded through the defense ministry. It was armed through the defense ministry.

[04:40:00]

And the reason that he had this influence -- that Prigozhin that no independent power base. It was all based on his personal connections to Putin. And the army, you know, during Ukraine was mostly recruited from the -- from these prisoners who were pardoned by Putin personally so that they could go to Ukraine to fight for Wagner.

So, I think Putin thought that it was useful. We know that he likes to have his subordinates fight each other. He thinks that keeps them in check. And he thought that -- he -- you know, that Prigozhin was too dependent on him, and I think underestimated him. Didn't think that he would go this far.

With Belarus' role, I think it just shows that the Kremlin's eye official explanation for why they used Lukashenko is because he's known Prigozhin for 20 years, while Putin has known him for 30 years. And the fact that according to one account from the -- it was on Russian state media last night that Putin wasn't sure Prigozhin was even going to pick up the phone. I think that really just shows, you know, failure not just to Russia's state capacity, but also Putin's personal capacity to put Prigozhin back in his box.

FOSTER: I think what's playing on so many peoples minds' and what really doesn't make sense here is why Prigozhin would give up his army, the army he's built and makes him lots of money, leave it in Russia and head off into exile in Belarus. It doesn't quite add up for anyone that's really studied this. What do you think is going on?

SEDDON: Well, I think quite probably because he realized they, you know, they were going to kill him. We didn't see any kind of, you know, army units' defect to Wagner. Prigozhin is pretty widely reviled and feared among the rest of the Russian elite even if a lot of what he is saying does, as we saw with the reception he got on the street in Rostov last night, it seems to strike a chord with only some people in Russia. And this is a way for both sides to save face and indeed their lives.

But I think it's absolutely, you know, saying that I don't know we've seen the last of Prigozhin. I don't see him sitting on a farm in Belarus, growing potatoes for the rest of his life. That's not the kind of guy he is.

FOSTER: I think you're probably right there. But in terms of a more immediate concern for the rest of the world, are you expecting a financial impact as the markets open on Monday because Russia now looks weak or the leadership in Russia now looks weaker?

SEDDON: I think probably not because Russia is cut off from most global financial markets by western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. The one area where there could have been a lot of impact was Russia's continued exports of food, fertilizer, and oil and gas. You know, if there had been some sort of really significant state collapse in Russia, which I -- yesterday, for a time, it looked like that was very possible then that would have affected Russia's economy quite significantly.

But now, it very much seems that everyone just wants to put the genie back in the bottle and act like this didn't happen. The Kremlin said, Putin won't be making any further comments on this. The day off that was announced for everyone tomorrow in Moscow is still enforced even though the mutiny is over. And I think the Russian government, very much, hopes that everyone can just, kind of, forget this and put this behind them and go back to attacking Ukraine. And obviously, that's not going to happen. But I think that the short-term consequences. at least for now, they seem to have averted.

FOSTER: Do you think it would have affected morale in the Russian military? Make them less willing to fight this war?

SEDDON: I think what Prigozhin has really tapped into, and you saw this yesterday, was that morale has been down for quite some time because the problems that Prigozhin is talking about, about the incompetent commanders, about corruption, about poor supplies. These are things that are not limited to Wagner. These are things that the Russian army and the 40 or so other armed groups that are fighting in the war in Ukraine, they are all experiencing these problems.

And we saw it was really quite remarkable to see Prigozhin driving away like he just won some sort of NBA playoff game. Getting into his SUV with cheering crowds, waving him off. And it's quite clear that it does resonate with a lot of people in Russia.

One thing we definitely haven't seen since all this started is a single word from the two men who he said he wanted to get rid of when he started this mutiny, which was Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the invading forces. And they have just been, you know, throughout this feud, completely blindsided by Prigozhin's ability to play this out in public. And they have not been seen at all the whole time this has happened.

So, I think in terms of morale, it's certainly not going to, you know, get people more excited about fighting in the Russian army. Russian army that couldn't stop these guys from driving most of the way to Moscow, pretty much unimpeded, you know, shot down a number of helicopters. There are estimates of between 13 and 20 Russian servicemen were killed. And now, they're going to get off scot-free, and Russian government isn't doing anything about it. That's not going through as far it all accounts from this.

[04:45:00]

FOSTER: All right. Max Seddon, thank you very much -- so much for joining us with your insight today.

Still to come, the Wagner insurrection didn't give Ukraine a reprieve from Russia's onslaught of missile and drone attacks. We'll show you that damage, next.

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FOSTER: Hours after mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called off his armed uprising in Russia, the country is still dealing with the impact of that insurrection. Authorities say, they've just extinguished a fire at an oil refinery where the mercenaries appear to have clashed with Russian troops, and the country is still restricting traffic on parts of a major highway in which the Wagner fighters used to advance towards Moscow. Prigozhin and his forces have now pulled back from their positions. The Kremlin says, they will face criminal charges for starting a rebellion, and that Prigozhin has agreed to move to Belarus.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says, Russia's weakness is obvious following Wagner's rebellion. In his nightly address on Saturday, he also claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely on the run.

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VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow.

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FOSTER: For civilians across Ukraine, the chaos in Russia seemed to change little about the war though. We're getting word that two people were killed and at least eight wounded during Russian attacks on eastern and southern Ukraine late on Saturday and early on Sunday. A local military official said Russia carried out 59 attacks which struck residential areas.

According to Ukrainian state media, the country's air defenses intercepted dozens of Russian cruise missiles and two Iranian-made drones on Saturday. At least three residents were killed in Kyiv, and more than a dozen were injured after falling missile debris landed on an apartment building.

[04:50:00]

And an overnight Russian missile strike hit a residential area in southeastern Ukraine. According to a Ukrainian official, four houses were destroyed and two -- and more than two dozen were damaged during the attack.

Well, still to come on CNN --

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (Speaking in a foreign language).

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FOSTER: -- we'll tell you what information is and is not getting through to the Russian people. Stay with us.

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FOSTER: Welcome back. I want to get back to our top story. There's an uneasy calm in Russia right now after mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his insurrection against the military. The Kremlin says, he cut a deal to stop his forces from advancing to Moscow in an armed convoy. As part of the agreement, the mercenaries will not face criminal charges but many will sign new contracts with the defense ministry. The Kremlin says, Prigozhin has also agreed to leave Russia and move to Belarus.

Russians watching television this weekend saw reports of unrest on their streets while the coverage was far from comprehensive, it stands in stark contrast for the 1991 Soviet coup attempt.

[04:55:00]

Official Russian TV played a recorded video of "Swan Lake" then. But now, as more people get their news online, Moscow tried to turn off the internet spigot. Paula Newton reports from Ottawa.

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PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The Kremlin wanted to control that narrative today. And to that end, it seems that they did try and block news sites on the internet. NetBlocks, which monitors internet censorship, said that beginning on Friday night, google news, along with some other news sites were blocked. Having said that, there were other messaging apps that seemed to work on and off. And all of this is part of the Kremlin's desire, really, to control the narrative not just for this event, but really since the invasion started in Ukraine. Having said that, many people in Russia are quite savvy about trying to get around those controls. The last couple of days though have been much different. And you wonder now whether or not the Kremlin, the Russian regime may try to restrict the internet even more going forward, trying to control the flow of information as much as it can.

And I will say that even since the invasion of Ukraine began, even though Russians can receive a lot of news flow, the issue is -- here is that they can't comment on anything that they see. If they are seemed to be saying something against the Russian regime, we have seen examples when they're charged and even imprisoned. Paula Newton, CNN, Ottawa.

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FOSTER: And I'm Max Foster in London. I'll be back in just a moment with more on "CNN Newsroom" about all of the latest updates were getting in the Russian situation.

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