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Calm Returns to Moscow After Insurrection; Ukraine Claims Progress in Bakhmut; Tornado in Indianapolis; Two Dead in Extreme Heat in Texas; China Expresses Support for Kremlin After Insurrection; Russian Defense Minister Visits Troops But Unclear When The Visit Took Place; Uprising Marks Major Challenge To Putin's Authority; Key Putin Ally, Belarus President Lukashenko Brokered Deal That Ended Armed Insurrection. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired June 26, 2023 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[02:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN HOST: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church. Just ahead on "CNN Newsroom," an uneasy calm settle over the streets of Moscow just days after an armed insurrection that ended as quickly as it started. Big questions remain about Putin's grip on power.

The short-term revolt in Russia could have long-term effects on the country's war in Ukraine. How Kiev is looking to capitalize on the chaos?

And after staying largely silent as the insurrection played out, Beijing voices its support for the Kremlin.

Good to have you with us. Well, questions and uncertainty are hanging over Russia at this hour after an armed insurrection over the weekend rattled the country and its leader, exposing what some call cracks in Vladimir Putin's 23-year rule. The streets are quiet now, but anxiety gripped the city Saturday after Wagner Group mercenaries marched toward Moscow.

A Minsk-brokered deal brought an abrupt end to the uprising and the whereabouts of Wagner Group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, remains a mystery right now. Prigozhin's news service tells CNN he will answer questions when he has, quote, "proper communication." One thing is clear, the insurrection marks the most serious threat we have seen to Putin's rule.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia. But what's so striking about it is it's internal. The fact that you have from within someone directly questioning Putin's authority, directly questioning the premises that upon which he launched this aggression against Ukraine. That in and of itself is something very, very powerful. It adds cracks. Where those go? When they get there? Too soon to say. But it clearly raises new questions that Putin has to deal with.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: And experts are warning the rare uprising by Wagner Group mercenaries could have consequences down the line with so much still uncertain. CNN's Matthew Chance reports from Moscow.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For the Kremlin, these are some of the most disturbing scenes from a weekend of shocking images. On the streets of a major Russian city, Rostov-on-Don in the south, residents cheered Wagner fighters as they withdrew. Many Russians see them as heroes, not as the traitors the Kremlin paints them.

And Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has become a celebrity too. Watch his supporters hail down his car just to shake hands. The Kremlin says he's now moving to Belarus next door, but it's unclear if this is the last, we'll see of him. What is definite, though, is a sense of relief, at least here in the Russian capital.

(On camera): It's calm now, but in the mayhem of the weekend, Moscow was on high alert. Military checkpoints on the outskirts of the city, residents bracing for Wagner fighters to enter and for the confrontation that never came.

It was really uneasy yesterday, says Andrei. But, look, now people are walking in the streets and it's all good. Let's hope it will stay peaceful, he adds. But even here, the sympathy for Prigozhin's unprecedented challenge, his tirades against the conduct of the war in Ukraine appears to have struck a popular chord.

I think it was an expression of an opinion, says Oleg, another resident of Moscow, an opinion of a powerful person who wants some justice and clarity. The belief Prigozhin should be listened to is widely shared here. But that's not what the Kremlin wants to hear. Vladimir Putin hasn't appeared in public since making his angry pledge on Saturday.

[02:04:58]

Filmed behind the scenes by state television to punish those responsible for what he called an armed mutiny, the biggest challenge to his authority in 23 years of power.

But now that challenge has been made. There are growing concerns about what a defensive President Putin, stung by the events of this weekend, will do next to stay in power.

(On camera): Well, another question tonight is where is mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. As we know, the Kremlin says he's agreed to move to Belarus, but officials there tell me they have no details on when he will arrive or what his status will eventually be. Prigozhin's office isn't saying much either telling CNN that he's currently out of contact and will respond to any questions only later.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: And CNN's Clare Sebastian joins me now from London. So, Clare, an aborted insurrection, a deal made with Yevgeny Prigozhin, but now we don't even know where the Wagner leader is right now and Vladimir Putin hasn't been seen or heard from since Saturday. So, what is the latest on all of this?

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, radio silence, Rosemary, from President Putin since he made that angry Saturday morning address promising inevitable punishment for those responsible. The rebellion punishment didn't, of course, materialize when the deal to send Prigozhin to Belarus and cancel all the charges against him was later announced by Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, not the president himself.

Interesting also that state media aired a pre-insurrection interview with President Putin on Sunday, taped on Wednesday last week, where he essentially said that his day starts and ends with the special military operation, really trying to show that he is still in control of the situation.

Not -- no public statements either from the military top brass, General Gerasimov, the head of the armed forces and the operation in Ukraine, and Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, the so-called evil leadership, as Prigozhin put it, the march for justice, as he called it, was designed to stop.

However, this morning, the Russian Ministry of Defense has put out video saying that Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, did visit the zone of the special military operation, the western group of troops there. They did not, however, say when, and we cannot, of course, verify this video, but perhaps he is, you know, essentially trying to play Prigozhin at his own game.

Prigozhin is seen many times on the front line, and he has criticized, of course, the Russian military leadership for being out of touch. As for Prigozhin himself, as Matthew pointed out, he has said that he would be back in touch with the media when he has proper communication. There is no indication as of yet that he has actually accepted that exile in Belarus.

CHURCH: And Clare, what will likely happen to the Wagner Group with Prigozhin in exile, if that's what happens in the end?

SEBASTIAN: Yeah, this is really interesting, Rosemary, because the Russian leadership has actually not disavowed the Wagner Group as a whole. Both President Putin and Dmitry Peskov, his spokesman, essentially called the Wagner fighters responsible for what they called the liberation of Bakhmut. Soledar called them heroes.

And the head of the state of Duma Committee for Defense gave an interview to a Russian newspaper paper on Sunday where he said, look, why would we disband this group? They are the most combat-ready part of the Russian forces. He said to disarm and disperse them, you couldn't think of a better gift for NATO and the Ukrainians.

I think it's also significant that Prigozhin is apparently being sent to Belarus, which is where Russia staged part of its initial invasion of Ukraine, continues to do a lot of military exercises. You know, it's planning to put nukes in Belarus. They could have sent him to somewhere much further away from the zone of the special military operation.

But I think there are also questions for Prigozhin himself having led his fighters on this march towards Moscow only then to abort the mission. There may be questions for his leadership of this group going forward as well, Rosemary.

CHURCH: All right. Thanks to Clare Sebastian joining us live from London.

U.S. President Joe Biden has spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the developments in Russia. The White House says Mr. Biden reaffirmed, quote, "unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine." The pair also spoke about Ukraine's counteroffensive as well as continued aid from the United States.

President Zelensky has also discussed Russia's internal conflict with other world leaders including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Polish President Andrzej Duda. Mr. Zelensky says they all view the situation the same way and have agreed on how to respond. Meantime, on the front lines, Ukraine's military claims to have gained some ground around Bakhmut during heavy fighting over the weekend.

[02:10:02]

They also claim Russian efforts to retake territory has failed. Ukraine's president says Russia's crisis is a result of its own aggression.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translation): The longer Russian aggression lasts, the more degradation it causes in Russia itself. One of the manifestations of this degradation is that Russian aggression is gradually returning to its home harbor. In our conversations with the leaders, we have exchanged our assessments of what is happening in Russia. We see the situation in the same way and know how to respond.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: CNN's Ben Wedeman has more now on the frontline battles in Ukraine.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: After the brief but intense drama in Russia, it's back to the war in Ukraine. While Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the rampage against his foes in Moscow, officials in Kiev were largely silent, following Napoleon's advice never to interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake. Briefly, many Ukrainians entertained the hope that civil war or chaos

in Russia would lead to an early end to the war. But Prigozhin said an about face dash to those hopes. Sunday, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview, he was hoping for something more concrete, perhaps a civil war in Russia. He said he was still confident that will eventually happen.

While attention was diverted away from the front, the fighting went on. Sunday, Ukrainian officials claimed their forces had ceased a kilometer, a kilometer stretch of trenches near Bakhmut. They said they had killed, wounded or captured an entire battalion, though they didn't give exact numbers. It was a limited tactical success. The much-anticipated counteroffensive has yet to hit its stride. I'm Ben Wedeman, CNN, reporting from Zaporizhzhia.

CHURCH: We want to go now to Mariia Zolkina. She is the head of Regional Security and Conflict Studies for the Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kyiv and is a research fellow at the London School of Economics. Appreciate you joining us.

MARIIA ZOLKINA, HEAD, REGIONAL SECURITY AND CONFLICT STUDIES, DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION: Good morning from London.

CHURCH: So, after an extraordinary 36 hours, Prigozhin's armed rebellion came to a sudden end, but not before significant damage had been done to the leadership of President Vladimir Putin. What's being said in Ukraine about Russia's brief insurrection and how might this affect the way this war plays out? I mean, you would have been talking to your contacts obviously in Ukraine.

ZOLKINA: Actually, in Ukraine, the main reaction was focused on the political damage and on the image of, so to say, strong authoritarian regime of Mr. Putin as it was perceived in many countries abroad, including many in the West. And actually, this attempt of rebellion showed that the institutional system under Mr. Putin was in chaos during the first day of this mutiny attempt, the system which Putin actually tried to build up when all the branches of security, law enforcement bodies, intelligence are all divided and not dependent.

He tried to prevent any possibility for any mutiny against him. And actually, in the time of the crisis, which definitely was when Prigozhin started this mutiny, none of these institutions, of these divided, separated by Putin bodies (ph), was capable of reacting in a flexible and strong way immediately.

And actually, Moscow seemed to be not protected, actually. And Prigozhin stopped just because he couldn't, actually. He could drive to Moscow, but logistically, he wouldn't be able to conduct any, let's say, military battles around or in Moscow. So, it's a different story.

But let's say from Ukrainian point of view, the main damage which was done is that it becomes obvious not only for those who support Ukraine but also for those who try somehow to back Putin. That system is not that strong as Putin always claims and that country is not, let's say, institutionally fully controlled by this person. CHURCH: So, Prigozhin's 25,000 Wagner fighters came within 125 miles

of Moscow, putting intense pressure on Putin, who initially accused Prigozhin of being a traitor, but then offered him a deal through Belarus's leader Lukashenko to drop any charges against Prigozhin in exchange for stopping this insurrection and moving to Belarus in exile.

[02:15:08]

So, it's unclear where he is right now, but can Prigozhin even survive this given he also criticized Putin's failed war in Ukraine. He says Russia shouldn't be there. So, what will likely happen to Prigozhin, do you think?

ZOLKINA: First of all, it's not necessarily true that Prigozhin will completely stick to the agreement, to the political deal, which was achieved actually because Wagner is not just Prigozhin. These are several dozens of highly motivated and organized people who are armed, at least as of now. And the fact that the defense minister of Russia is going to incorporate most of these people into their regular Russian army, doesn't mean that this plan will be fulfilled.

So, secondly, yes, Putin can try to eliminate Prigozhin physically because this is actually normal tactics of Russian Federation. They have been doing that to people with much less -- who made much less damage to the regime, and they did that on the territories of E.U. and NATO member states, as we remember, within next -- within last, sorry, five to six years.

So, Prigozhin is not necessarily will have some kind of political -- real security on the territory of the Belarus. But basically, the question which is still unanswered and maybe will be not answered in the nearest future is actually whether someone from around Putin's elite supported currently the Prigozhin rebellion.

Because actually the Prigozhin who was always insisting that he had not enough arms, that he had not enough weapons, he started such a huge operation, most probably having at least latent support or promised future support from someone who still have leverage and who is within the system around Mr. Putin on a much higher level than Prigozhin was, because Prigozhin is not a part of the bureaucratic system.

And in Russia, as in authoritarian state, only people who have posts, who have positions in institutional system, they have much (inaudible) than anyone else. If that is true, if some of the people were really backing latently Prigozhin, it means that the story really is not ended yet.

CHURCH: Right. Of course, we have no evidence to suggest that at this juncture, but Ukraine does say that Prigozhin's Wagner uprising in Russia is the first stage of dismantling Putin's regime. Do you agree with that assessment?

ZOLKINA: I agree because basically, if we remember that all the way since Russia invaded Ukraine, we have been hearing from many foreign partners of Ukraine and many countries really trying to keep so-called neutrality that Russia can't be defeated because the power of Putin is so strong that we have to stick to their interests somehow.

As of now, there are two signals. One signal to the foreign countries and to the foreign audience, which I explained already, that regime is not that kind of that it can't be defeated. It can be defeated and should be defeated. And there will be no actually survival of the state as everyone's theory.

But on the other hand, there is a clear signal to political elites around Putin. Before this rebellion, there was a general impression that even if the elites are not satisfied with how the war in Ukraine is going up, but the price to oppose Putin might be much higher for them personally and for their people than just to stick to the official position. As of now, they see many cracks in the system, lack of influence on the side of Putin personally, because basically if part of the elite supported Prigozhin or did the same to a more effective way, then Putin's regime would collapse.

It was very clear after these 24 hours when Prigozhin was moving and system was not able to do anything. And the main mistake of, or the main problem of Prigozhin actually was that he relied on a military rebellion in Moscow. And of course, trying to do that, you have to be much more capable in terms of logistics than just to have 10,000-armed people moving to Moscow because they can move there and that's all.

CHURCH: All right. Mariia Zolkina, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your analysis.

[02:20:00]

(VIDEO PLAYING)

Extreme weather on full display Sunday just outside of Indianapolis. The National Weather Service says it's almost certainly a tornado. They will make it official after a survey team reports back Monday. Here's what it looked like for a fire company responding to reports of a collapsed building. Officials say at least 75 homes have been damaged and an apartment building under construction was destroyed. There are no reports of serious injuries.

Oppressive heat has turned deadly in Texas. A temperature of 119 degrees Fahrenheit or 48 degrees Celsius is the suspected cause of two deaths in Big Bend National Park. A 31-year-old man was hiking with his step-sons in the extreme heat. Both the man and his 14-year-old step-son died. A 21-year-old survived.

The sustained heat across the state is raising concerns about the stability of the power of grid. Cities have opened cooling centers to keep the most vulnerable people safe.

And still to come here on "CNN Newsroom," Beijing is emphasizing its closeness with Russia and Vladimir Putin days after he faced one of the biggest challenges to his leadership in decades. We will tell you what they're saying. That's next.

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[02:25:00]

CHURCH: After a weekend of turmoil, Russia is shoring up support from one of its closest allies. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister met with China's Foreign Minister on a trip to Beijing Sunday. Russian officials say the two spoke about the upheaval from the Prigozhin insurrection, with China affirming the need to strengthen Russia's unity and prosperity. Anna Coren joins me now live from Hong Kong. Good to see you, Anna. So, what more are you learning about China's support for Russia in the wake of this aborted armed rebellion.

ANNA COREN, CNN CORORESPONDENT: Yeah, Rosemary, a day after that abrupt end to the insurrection threatening Russian leader Vladimir Putin's grip on power, its greatest ally, China, as we know, broke its silence issuing support for the Kremlin. After closely watching the gravest challenge to Putin's 23-year rule unfold over the weekend, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a strong statement online late Sunday evening local time.

And let me read it to you. It said, "This is Russia's internal affair. As Russia's friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity."

Well, it followed an unexpected visit, Rosemary, by Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrei Rudenko, to Beijing, who met with China's Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, among other Chinese officials yesterday, where the two exchanged views on, quote, Sino-Russian relations and international and regional issues of common concern.

There was that photo that showed the pair smiling and walking side by side. Now, Russia claims that this was part of scheduled consultations. The Chinese however, and very interestingly, did not announce the meeting beforehand. Now, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have developed a very close personal rapport in recent years over their shared ambition to challenge the US-led global order.

And in February of last year, the two leaders declared a friendship with no limits (inaudible) for Putin launched his war on Ukraine. Now, China has refused to condemn the invasion and has provided much-needed diplomatic and economic support for Russia, much to the alarm of the West. And it's also portrayed itself as a peace broker while deepening its ties with Moscow.

But Rosemary, some analysts believe that China will be closely monitoring the fallout of this aborted mutiny. Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australian National University says, and let me read you. He said, "The Wagner insurrection contradicts the narrative of Putin as a strong leader who enjoys full support of his people and is here for the long haul as China's global partner of choice. If Putin's rule is unstable, then supporting him is bad business."

Now, on China's Twitter-like platform Weibo, the Wagner insurrection was a top trending topic over the weekend, Rosemary. CHURCH: All right, thanks to Anna Coren bringing us that live report

from Hong Kong. Appreciate it. Well, still to come, barely 48 hours after the dramatic Wagner rebellion, we will walk you through how it all played out and what it might mean for Russia. Back with that and more in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:32:11]

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Back to our top story this hour. You are looking at images out of Moscow where Russia appears to have been pulled back from the brink of chaos, at least for now. The Kremlin struck a deal to end an armed insurrection by the head of the Wagner Mercenary Group Yevgeny Prigozhin. The uprising posing the most serious challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule since he came to power.

Meantime, Russia's defense ministry now says Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. The ministry released this video of the visit but neither it nor state media indicated when this took place and CNN cannot verify its authenticity.

Well, the rebellion lasted less than 24 hours but long enough to bring into question Vladimir Putin's aura of invincibility and stability. CNN Senior International Correspondent Ivan Watson reports on how those crucial hours played out from beginning to end.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): A weekend of chaos and drama in Russia. Mercenaries declared a mutiny and then called it off in under 24 hours. Yevgeny Prigozhin issued a call for rebellion, the head of the Wagner Mercenary Group, accusing top Russian military commanders of gross mismanagement of the war in Ukraine.

Then Prigogine released video of an alleged Russian airstrike on a Wagner camp in Ukraine demanding revenge. Russia's Defense Ministry denied the attack, and soon Russia's top prosecutor announced criminal charges against Prigozhin. Then in the early hours of Saturday, Prigozhin followed through on his threats, sending his fighters across the border from Ukraine back into Russia.

Footage surfaced at dawn showing Wagner fighters surrounding the military headquarters in the southern Russian city of Rostov. Some locals stood nearby watching.

At around 7:30 a.m. Prigozhin was then shown dressing down senior Russian military leaders and issuing demands.

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, CHIEF, WAGNER MERCENARY GROUP (through translator): Again, we came here we want to receive the Chief of General Staff Shoigu. Until they show, up until they show up we are located here, blockading the city of Rostov, and we'll go to Moscow. WATSON (voiceover): Video showed columns of Wagner troops heading north towards the capital along the way claiming control of military installations in the Voronezh region.

[02:35:04]

Footage later showed at least one Russian helicopter narrowly avoiding a missile.

At 10:00 a.m. Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a televised address to the nation calling the rebellion a stab in the back.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA (through translator): All those who deliberately chose the path of treachery, who prepared an armed mutiny, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods will face inevitable punishment and will answer both to the law and to our people.

WATSON (voiceover): The Kremlin announced counterterrorism measures tightening security in Moscow. But by Saturday night, suddenly a Kremlin reversal. Putin spokesman announced a deal.

Prigogine released an audio message saying his troops would turn around and go back to field camps to avoid shedding Russian blood.

Supporters chanted Wagner as fighters drove out of Rostov, giving Prigozhin handshakes as he left in this SUV.

The Kremlin says it dropped charges and Prigozhin will go to Belarus while promising his fighters contracts with the Russian military. For now, a crisis apparently averted, but this very public betrayal and the mercenaries short but unimpeded march on Moscow reveals deep weakness at the heart of the Putin regime.

Ivan Watson, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's advisor says Prigozhin almost nullified Putin with this insurrection. CNN's Fareed Zakaria had more on what could be next for Russia's leader.

FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: You have to say the odds are that Putin will consolidate power around him that he will be able to establish complete control. Remember, Prigozhin had 25,000 people. Putin's personal presidential guard has 200,000. The Russian army has hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people. All the regional governors, all major figures in Russia, back Putin, the, you know, there isn't a sense here of a downward spiral out of control.

What we saw was a chink in the armor. And it's important. It's, you know, this is a chicken and armor that it seemed completely bulletproof. But let's not exaggerate. I mean, it wasn't -- at this point doesn't seem more than a chink. You never know, though. The thing, Jim, that you and I know having watched these kinds of regimes, dictatorships, like Putin has have this quality which is, when they're in place and in power, they seem eternal. And when they collapse, it looks inevitable.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: CNN's Fareed Zakaria speaking there to Jim Sciutto earlier. Well, for more, I'm joined now by Steven Fish. He is a professor of political science at U.C. Berkeley. Thanks so much for joining us.

STEVEN FISH, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, U.C. BERKELEY: My pleasure.

CHURCH: So, it happened so quickly. An armed insurrection marching toward Moscow, fans cheering in the streets and no intervention from Russia's military. Then it abruptly stopped, but not before Yevgeny Prigozhin had caused significant damage it appears to Vladimir Putin's leadership also criticizing his failed war on Ukraine. Is this the beginning of the end for Putin?

FISH: It could well be. If you really look at this whole thing in broader perspective, it's remarkable the Prigozhin has always been part of Putin's efforts to attain were really his biggest goal is reestablishing the Russian Empire, raising Russia's cloud in the world. And Prigozhin is the guy who now is turned around and turned on Putin. And that actually means a lot. Remember that the Wagner troops, those mercenaries that Prigozhin leads were formed in 2014 to help with Russia's invasion and annexation of parts of an occupation of parts of eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

Then actually, they went on to Syria, where Putin was trying to expand influence in the Middle East, and they helped with the battle there. Then in 2016, Prigozhin's internet research agency, that was the big troll farm that actually, you know, invaded American social media on behalf of Trump and spread all kinds of misinformation and attempted to deepen racial divides on Trump's behalf.

It may well -- Putin may well, using that internet region research agency among other agencies have tipped the election in Trump's favor. So, Prigozhin all along has been a very big part of Putin's plans. And now that he turns against him, it's very bad for Putin.

CHURCH: And after calling Prigozhin a traitor on Saturday, Putin hasn't been seen publicly and no has Prigozhin who was offered this deal by the President of Belarus for charges against him to be dropped in exchange for ending the insurrection and settling in Belarus in exile.

[02:40:07]

So, what will likely happen to the Wagner boss? Do you think he can survive this? Should he be watching his back?

Fish: He should certainly be watching his back but he can -- he can also survive this. And imagine how weak This makes Putin look. Putin goes on T.V., gives this grim face speech where he basically compares conditions in Russia at the moment with 1917, a revolutionary situation. OK. And Prigozhin meanwhile was rolling his troops on to Moscow. Prigozhin stops along the way and cuts a deal with Putin.

He knows he's not going to be able to take over all of Moscow. Putin can't stop him. He's -- are setting up -- setting up big roadblocks and barricades in Moscow. And what's more, Putin flees this city. He goes up to one of his palace bunkers up in northern Russia out of fear. What a contrast with President Zelensky of Ukraine. Right? Remember in the early stages of that conflict when Russia invaded Ukraine in the early weeks and was headed straight toward Kyiv, Zelenskyy was offered safe passage from the city. And he said I need ammo not a ride.

Well, Putin took the ride, in this case out of Moscow and went and hunkered down in one of his palace bunkers. That's not a good look for Putin. And the meantime, Prigozhin of course, looks like the biggest gun in Russia. He's rolling towards Moscow with the -- endangering his own life. He endangered his own life all the time and Ukraine stood by his troop. He's always in battle fatigues, while Putin and his army chiefs are sitting back in their opulence, you know, for, opulent circumstances in Moscow, sending countless thousands of Russian men to their deaths in this meat grinder not really seem to care much about it.

Putin no longer looks like the toughest guy in Russia. And that's a big deal. Because remember, in dictatorships like this, the main man stays in power by looking like he's tougher and stronger than everybody else. And that's not what Putin looks like today.

CHURCH: Yes. It is certainly a stark contrast. We'll see what happens next. Steve Fisher, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate your analysis.

And still to come here on CNN NEWSROOM. Belarus's president has emerged as a deal maker who helped stop the Wagner uprising. We will have more on Alexander Lukashenko, one of Vladimir Putin's few close allies in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:45:45]

CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone. The Wagner Group's armed rebellion against Moscow began in the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia. The streets were calm on Sunday, but lingering questions remain over Vladimir Putin is grip on power. This was the scene in the city after Wagner mercenaries took control of the local military headquarters earlier in the weekend. One resident shared his thoughts on the insurrection.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): Resolve quietly enough, peacefully enough. But of course, it would have been better if it did not come to the situation. In my opinion, if it was possible to have troops, not Russian troops but private military company marched into the city to see several facilities. There's something that should be reconsidered.

(END VIDEO CLIP) CHURCH: Since the war in Ukraine began 16 months ago, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been one of Vladimir Putin's few close allies, but their relationship and Lukashenko's dependency on Russia go back further. CNN's Nic Robertson has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR (voiceover): Alexander Lukashenko ruled Belarus like a personal fiefdom. President since its creation in 1994. He brooks little opposition. Dubbed Europe's last dictator, Lukashenko has come to be defined by his fealty to his powerful neighbor Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Transforming Belraus into a near vassal state.

Putin used Lukashenko and Belarus to help launch in 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Driving tanks over Belraus' border towards Kyiv. And using Belarusian skies to bomb Ukrainians.

ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO, PRESIDENT OF BELARUS (through translator): We will never be enemies of Russia and we will never look disapprovingly at Russia. This is the country closest to us, the people closest to us. I think that while we are in power, we will stick to this tendency, if it were otherwise, it would be like in Ukraine.

ROBERTSON (voiceover): Reality was the war deepened Lukashenko's already growing dependence on Putin. Lukashenko's flawed 2020 election victory, claiming 80 percent of the vote described by Western governments as fraudulent, triggered nationwide protests. Get out, they shouted. He responded with force. The woman who ran against him, whose husband Lukashenko had already jailed, fled the country.

SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA, BELARUSIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: Thousands of people are in prisons for political motivated cases. Hundreds of thousands had to flee Belarus because of repression and one day we can wake up and see that Belarus has left as consolation prize for Putin.

ROBERTSON (voiceover): The protests escalated. Lukashenko called on Putin for help, was bailed out, but at a cost.

Most recently, Putin tightening his grip, pledging to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. Like Putin, Lukashenko is a product of his Soviet upbringing. His Belarus often seems stuck in that past. Unlike Russia, the KGB was never disbanded, or even renamed. Before entering politics, Lukashenko ran a collective farm later often had himself filmed as president digging up carrots or potatoes to show he never forgot his roots.

But behind the folks eat farmer image look to thug, often turning to strong arm tactics. When a Bela Russian dissident was a passenger on board a plane flying over the country in 2021, Belarus air traffic control called in a bomb threat, causing the plane to land and the man was arrested. Like so many dictators, Lukashenko has an eye on the future, creating a dynasty, grooming his young son.

Sometimes dressed in a military uniform for leadership, often taking him to meetings with world leaders. [02:50:03]

His intervention to broker an apparent truce in Russia and help Putin by hosting Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin suggests his own fate and his families is more intertwined with Russia than ever before.

Nic Robertson, CNN, London.

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CHURCH: Belarusian opposition figures are warning about what the deal could mean for their country. Coming up, we will speak with the chief adviser for opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya about what they want the U.S. and other Western countries to do next.

And still to come. The U.S. Coast Guard convenes its highest level of investigation into the implosion of the Titan submersible. But what will the investigators be looking for? The details just ahead.

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CHURCH: The U.S. Coast Guard says it has convened its highest investigative body, the marine board of investigation to look into the fatal implosion of the Titan submersible.

[02:55:02]

Officials say the panel will try to determine the cause of the disaster. It will also focus on conducting interviews and collecting debris.

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CAPT. JASON NEUBAUER, U.S. COAST GUARD: During the course of the MBI, the board will first and primarily work to determine the cause of this marine casualty and the five associated deaths. The MBI, however, is also responsible for accountability aspects of the incident, and it can make recommendations to the proper authorities to pursue civil or criminal sanctions as necessary.

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CHURCH: The submersible imploded on its way to tour the Titanic wreckage, killing all five people on board.

In Greece, the ruling conservative party is celebrating after winning a resounding victory in Sunday's election securing a second four-year term.

With nearly all the votes counted Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' new democracy party got more than 40 percent. Leftist Syriza poll just about 17 percent. Mitsotakis who has led Greece out of a severe debt crisis vowed to keep working for the country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) KYRIAKOS MITSOTAKIS, NEW DEMOCRACY PARTY LEADER (through translator): I now feel a heavier duty just served the country with all my strength. I never promised miracles, but I assure you that I will remain faithful to my national duty with a plan with dedication and above all, with hard work.

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CHURCH: Syriza actually polled worse Sunday than they did in the first round last month.

And thank you so much for your company. I'm Rosemary Church. I will be back with more CNN NEWSROOM in just a moment. Do stay with us.

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