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Trump, DeSantis Hold Dueling Campaign Events In Iowa; At Least A Dozen Rocket Intercepts Launched Over Tel Aviv Tonight; US Announces New Climate Initiatives At UN Summit; U.S. Announces Rule To Slash Methane By Nearly 80 Percent; DeSantis Campaigns Hard In Iowa But Still Polling Far Behind Trump. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired December 02, 2023 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[18:00:49]

JIM ACOSTA, CNN HOST: You're live in the CNN Newsroom. I'm Jim Acosta in Washington. Good evening.

Today, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis held dueling campaign events in Iowa with the caucuses just six weeks away.

The Florida governor is all in on the Hawkeye State wrapping up a campaign tour of all 99 counties in Iowa, but even high-powered endorsements from Iowa's governor has not had much impact on the poll numbers. DeSantis showing in the polls that he is back behind Donald Trump, whose lead appears to be only growing at this point.

Meantime, the former president is pushing lies about the 2020 election saying he hopes judges will let him prosecute the results of that race. He is now accusing his chief political rival of "waging an all- out war on American democracy" handing out these signs. Look at this on screen right there -- these signs to his supporters saying "Biden attacks democracy."

He is also encouraging his supporters to enter ballot counting facilities in 2024 to "guard" the votes.

We are live in Iowa with both campaigns. CNN's Steve Contorno is in Newton with the DeSantis campaign and CNN national correspondent, Kristen Holmes is in Cedar Rapids with Team Trump.

Kristen, pretty astonishing to hear Trump's allegation that President Biden is waging a war on democracy as he is facing federal election interference charges. He was the one that tried to overturn the 2020 election, but we saw those campaign signs being handed out to supporters earlier today.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jim, this was really the most forceful rebuttal yet that we have seen from the former president to Joe Biden's argument to Americans that he is routinely made that a second Trump term would be bad for democracy. We even had a reference, a veiled reference to the speech that Biden gave in which he said that Trump and MAGA Republicans were a danger to American institutions and again, to democracy.

So take a listen to just some of what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: But Joe Biden is not the defender of American democracy, Joe Biden is the destroyer of American democracy.

So if Joe Biden wants to make this race a question of which candidate will defend democracy and protect our freedoms, and I say to crooked Joe, and he is crooked, the most corrupt president we've ever had, we will win that fight, and we're going to win it very big -- very big.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: And Jim, at one point, he also said that his campaign is a righteous crusade to liberate our republic from Joe Biden. So of course, the big question being what exactly is it that Joe Biden is doing that is against democracy, he talked about the First Amendment.

He also talked about Joe Biden and his administration forcing people to buy cars, electric cars in particular, but the main crux of his argument, was about himself essentially saying that Joe Biden was turning his administration against Donald Trump using the Justice Department for election interference, saying that that's why it is that Donald Trump is facing so many charges, it is because Joe Biden and his administration have essentially done this on purpose so that Donald Trump would not be president.

So not really surprising when we get back to the connecting of the dots there politically, since we know that really, his political campaign message, Donald Trump's and his legal message are the same, that this is a political interference, that this is all fake. This is all Democrats orchestrating this.

But it is particularly fascinating, given what you said, which is that the former president himself is facing counts in his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

ACOSTA: And that's what he's on trial -- is going to be on trial for here in Washington, DC.

All right, Kristen, thank you.

Steve Contorno, what are you hearing on the DeSantis front? They have completed this tour of all 99 counties. He has got the endorsement of the governor of Iowa and it just is not making a huge impact on the numbers.

Still, still, lots of time left. We've seen these races go down to the wire and candidate surge at the very end. I suppose that is what the DeSantis campaign is hoping for, that history will repeat itself and he'll be able to make that kind of a comeback. It's going to be tough though.

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN REPORTER: That's right, Jim and the Iowa caucuses have a history of breaking late and producing surprises and they are hoping that there is one surprise left that's going to be in their favor.

[18:05:05]

And he just got done speaking right behind me, giving his address to these Iowa caucus goers for this 99th appearance in the county completing the full Grassley, which is, you know, pretty storied feats for these candidates who come here. Many of them have attempted it, some have succeeded. Not all of them have gone on to win the Iowa caucuses, though, but DeSantis is hoping that he could be one of the few who have.

And I've got to say Jim, it was an interesting speech because he has spent so much time offering a relatively dark vision for the country's future, spending a lot of time talking about all the troubles he sees in America. But yet, he said that he left this 99-county tour feeling rather optimistic about the country.

He also had a chance to explain why he thinks this 9-county tour is so important to producing a victory here. Listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL), 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't think doing the 99 counties is just about the caucus, like yes, obviously, we're going to use that to win the caucus, but I think it has significance beyond there.

One, by the fact that I'm willing to do this, that should show you that I consider myself a servant, not a ruler and that is how people that get elected should consider themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CONTORNO: Now DeSantis has six weeks to catch a spark, and people that I talk to in his campaign say that they remain optimistic, that there is still time to turn this around, but they acknowledge that there is a tough road ahead and that Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor is posing a new challenge for him here.

So he's got a lot of time and a lot of ground to make up and he is going to spend a lot more time here even though he has already completed this tour of every county -- Jim.

ACOSTA: Yes, we're going to have to keep our eyes on Nikki Haley as well and when she's out there campaigning, I know we'll do that.

Kristen Holmes and Steve Contorno, thanks, guys very much, a busy day for both of you. We really appreciate it.

Here with us now to discuss CNN senior political commentator, Scott Jennings and "Vanity Fair" special correspondent, Molly Jong-Fast.

Scott, let me go to you first. Trump is out on the campaign trail with some pretty remarks that I would describe as pretty rich. Let's listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Our opponents and we have a lot of opponents, but we've been waging an all-out war in American democracy. You look at what they've been doing, and becoming more and more extreme and repressive. They have just waged an all-out war with each passing day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Scott, is this the old campaign tactic of accusing your opponent of your own weaknesses? What's going on here?

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, he obviously believes that Democrats rigged -- his words not mine -- the 2020 election. He believes that what happened to him during his term in office with the impeachment and the Russia investigation was an attempt to subvert his term in office, and he believes they are currently using the Department of Justice and Joe Biden's allies are using state courts to try to weaken him or stop him altogether from being a viable candidate for president.

That is the argument he has been making. I expect it is going to be the centerpiece of his argument all year. Joe Biden and the Democrats are going to argue just the opposite, that it's Trump and his people that tried to overthrow a fair election in 2020.

So you're going to have two campaigns effectively making the same argument and really they're not talking to each other as voters, they're talking to their own base and we will see. We'll see which one turns out.

ACOSTA: Yes. The only issue with that, Molly, is that in another rally today, Trump was instructing his supporters to go to election centers, where ballots would be tabulated in places like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta to "guard the vote."

It sounds like a lot of what we saw in the aftermath of the 2020 election where you saw people trying to intimidate election officials and so on. We should note, these are majority African-American cities that the former president was talking about earlier today. It sounds like he is saying the quiet part out loud again.

MOLLY JONG-FAST, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT, "VANITY FAIR": Yes. I mean, I think first we have to stop and just factcheck Scott here because we know there was no election interference, whether or not it's in Donald Trump's heart, that's one thing, but we know, there was no election interference. The 2020 election was completely fair and counted, and, you know, many people in different administrations and many politics --

You know, many of our -- of the courts proved that it was fair. So I think it's really important that we say things like that, and we don't let Trump hijack the narrative here.

What he believes in his heart is irrelevant, right? We know the 2020 election was completely fair, and there was no malfeasance. So I think that's really important. Yes, I think Trump is projecting. This is always what Trump does. He

projects, he lies, he obfuscates, he'll do anything.

Look, remember, this is the guy who he announced his candidacy early because he hoped that it might prevent him from being indicted.

So I don't know. I mean this guy is willing to do a lot of stuff in order to try to get back into the White House and there's a reason for that because he doesn't want to end up in jail, right?

[18:10:10]

He is facing 91 criminal indictments -- criminal counts.

ACOSTA: Yes, and Scott, if we can show our viewers the sign that the Trump campaign was handing out earlier today, I don't know. It says -- right here is the sign they were handing out at the Trump campaign event. It says "Biden attacks democracy."

Isn't there something Orwellian about that, just kind of like the upside down world about that? How has President Biden attacked democracy? I mean, as Molly was saying, you could feel a certain way, but that doesn't make it so.

JENNINGS: Yes. I think if you're trying to understand it through the lens of how and why political campaigns do what they do, you're Donald Trump, that's what his people believe. That's what he has told them they should believe. And that is a way for him to muddy the water on the attacks that he is facing. That is irrelevant of the facts, they are irrelevant of what any of the three of us happen to believe about the 2020 election, or how Joe Biden has acted in office.

The purpose of a political campaign is to try to feed and nurture a base of voters on a narrative that, you know, whether it's true or not. You know, whether it's based in reality or not.

So I think as the campaign rolls on, you're going to continue to see both campaigns try to do that. Now, I may disagree with what Joe Biden does, and I happen to disagree a lot with what Donald Trump does as well, but that's what a campaign does. You build a narrative, you build sort of a framework for argument for office, and then you do everything you can do to drive that framework and drive your people inside of it and keep them there and that is what Donald Trump is doing right now.

ACOSTA: Molly, is there something chilling, though, about this sign that they were handing out at this Trump rally earlier today? And we can show it to our viewers one more time, because they are accusing President Biden of doing something that Donald Trump himself tried to do after the 2020 election. He attempted to overturn American democracy, he attempted to overturn an American election and his supporters are going to hold these signs up, they're going to eat this up, and yet they're not being told the reality of the situation.

JONG-FAST: Well, I mean, Trump has this whole thing, right that he has sort of Earth 2. He has what he tells his people whether or not it's true. And I think that he has seen that Biden has done very well running on democracy, and so he has decided that this will work for him, too.

A lot of this stuff is upside down stuff. I mean, according to what I know about the norms of democracy, but you know, he's going to try it. And look, Trump is trying a lot of stuff. And he is at this point, still the Republican frontrunner by a large margin, so it does seem as if he is going to be the nominee barring some kind of huge cataclysmic event.

ACOSTA: And Scott, let me put that --

JENNINGS: Let me add more thing.

ACOSTA: Go ahead.

JENNINGS: Let me add one more thing, Jim.

ACOSTA: Yes, absolutely.

JENNINGS: On the strategic -- yes, on the strategic point, I think Molly might be onto something. You know, he sees Biden running on this, so he -- and having some success with it, so maybe he needs to run on it. One other piece of that, though, is I think he senses in his base, and maybe even Republicans at large, even some that aren't for him right now, the idea that vindication might be at hand.

They are looking at all of these national polls showing Donald Trump currently beating Joe Biden, and they are -- I think they sense that, look, Trump is our best bet to win the election. That's what they think Republicans are sensing now.

And so feeding on this idea of getting vindication for what they think happened in 2020, for what they think happened in the impeachments, for the indictments, whatever you're mad about as it relates to Donald Trump vis-a-vis his problems, getting vindication for that, I think is sort of the core vibe they're going for.

And so when you see a sign like that, you know, it's like, I'm going -- that is feeling that emotion, and so I suspect that's part of what's going on here. It's not really a policy tactic, but more of an emotional tactic, you know?

ACOSTA: Yes, and Molly, to I guess, an issue that Democrats are emotional about Obamacare. Trump has been rehashing the debate on Obamacare. I think he posted on Truth Social the other day, something along the lines of Obamacare sucks. He is saying that he's going to repeal and replace Obamacare. Of course, I mean, I remember I covered the Trump White House. They tried to get rid of Obamacare. He kept saying over and over again, he was going to come out with his own plan for replacing Obamacare. We never got it.

I don't know what has happened between now and then. We still don't have that plan. But what is your sense of that issue and the saliency of it for Democratic voters? I suspect that some of them would like to have that debate again. I mean, this has been the law of the land for 13 years now, and many like what it does, it covers people with preexisting conditions, and so on.

JONG-FAST: Yes, Obamacare is really a loser for Republicans and I think it would get back to this idea that taking things away from people is a loser, right? Like we saw this with Roe. Women didn't like having a right taken away.

[18:15:07]

And I think that with Obamacare, if Trump had been a more sort of diligent politician, more controlled, he would have talked to his people and known that this is not a good issue for him to run on.

But instead, he's sort of all over it and I remember him saying something to the effect of who knew healthcare was so complicated, right? This is just a very tough issue for him and I think it's a loser for Republicans.

ACOSTA: Yes, Scott. I mean, I'm old enough to remember when Obamacare was not good for President Obama. I covered the second term of the Obama administration and it was not a good issue for him. But slowly but surely, over time, it has become a popular program.

Do you think this is a good idea for Trump to be wading into this? Is this what Republicans want to talk about and get back into?

JENNINGS: Well, it depends on who you're talking to. I mean, premiums are pretty expensive and if you talk to folks who are paying for their portion of health care out there, whether it's on the open market, or through their employer, they'll tell you, it's gotten more expensive every year.

And so I think if I were in his shoes, and I wanted to make an issue of health care, I wouldn't talk about repealing Obamacare without a replacement plan. I will just talk about simply, it's gotten more and more expensive. They told us it was going to get cheaper. You know, they told us it was going to be a panacea of solutions and there are no solutions here because it's gotten too expensive and it doesn't even feel like insurance at all for a lot of Americans. That's probably the correct policy framework.

It doesn't absolve him of needing to have his own plan, but in terms of rhetoric, and sort of trying to connect with people about what they're really worried about, I think what you find is most folks are definitely, if they're paying for their health insurance, they're definitely worried about how expensive it's gotten.

ACOSTA: All right, guys. Thank you very much.; Molly, Scott, thanks for your time this evening. Really appreciate it.

JENNINGS: Thank you.

ACOSTA: Thanks.

Coming up, at least a dozen intercepts seen over Tel Aviv today as the fighting ramps back up. We'll take you there live in just a few moments. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:21:12]

ACOSTA: Sirens in Israel tonight as the country's Iron Dome intercepts at least a dozen rockets over Tel Aviv. It is the second time that Israel's Defense System has been used since the truce with Hamas ended on Friday.

But as the fighting resumes in Gaza, Israeli officials say negotiations over the remaining hostages has hit a "dead end" as Israel's Defense Minister says Hamas has violated their agreement after refusing to return a group of 17 women and children back to Israel.

CNN's Matthew Chance is live for us in Tel Aviv. What is the reaction to all of this in Israel? And what about those air raid sirens? Did you happen to witness any of that? What can you tell us?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. I mean that was us. That video is from when we were sort of standing, getting ready to do some reporting from the center of Tel Aviv and those sirens started filling the air. Hundreds of people who were around us, they immediately moved into the air raid shelters that are strategically placed at virtually every street corner here in Tel Aviv.

It just shows you that, you know, as this ongoing military operation continues, Israel really pounds targets inside the Gaza Strip, Hamas and other militant groups still have the capability to launch rockets into Israel, as well. And so this is very much still a very dynamic war that is unfolding.

Now, earlier, we were in that part of Tel Aviv because thousands of people had gathered there in order to show support for the hostages, the 130 or so Israelis and others that are still inside the Gaza Strip, voicing their support for those hostages and calling on the government as well, to do more to prioritize their release.

Everybody in Israel wants to see these hostages set free as soon as possible, but there is some division about the best way of achieving that. There are those that believe the hostage families, their supporters, they believe that, you know, the negotiations should continue and should be resumed because Israel has withdrawn its negotiators from the talks in Qatar. They should be resumed.

And everything should be done to bring those hostages home as soon as possible. The Israeli government and their supporters are essentially saying that, look, it's time for military pressure on Hamas to force them to release more hostages. That's the only way.

But nevertheless, it has become a very emotional political issue in this country.

ACOSTA: And Matthew, what do we know about Israel's next step militarily in Gaza? Do we think it is going to look like what we saw before the truce? Heavy bombardment, you know, dropping leaflets on Palestinians, telling them to move to the south so they can get out of harm's way? You can argue whether or not that was ultimately successful, but just that heavy bombardment that just left so much wreckage and devastation. Are we going to see a similar thing in the South? What can you tell us?

CHANCE: Yes. Wreckage, devastation, so much loss of life as well. Already, we've seen nearly 200 Palestinians, according to the Hamas controlled Health Ministry killed since the resumption of military hostilities.

Look, I mean, the United States, other Israeli allies are calling on Israel to show restraint, to protect civilians in the Gaza Strip. Israel says it is doing that, but it is also pounding civilian areas with you know, very high degree of military might.

And so, you know, casualties, it seems, are going to be an inevitable consequence. And so, everybody is watching very closely how that unfolds, whether it is the same situation with the mass casualties as before -- Jim.

ACOSTA: All right, Matthew Chance, thank you very much for that report. We appreciate it.

Coming up, the US just announced a rule to slash methane gas emissions. Was it too little too late? That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:29:18]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Even given the challenges we face, I am optimistic with ambition and bold action. I know we will build a cleaner, healthier, and more prosperous world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: That was Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at the COP 28 Global Climate Summit in Dubai earlier today. She went on to announce that the US is pledging $3 billion to the UN's Green Fund designed to help developing countries fight climate change.

CNN's David McKenzie is in Dubai with more on the Summit.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): In a made for TV moment, world leaders and royals entering a critical Climate Change Summit hosted by the UAE, a major oil producer.

ANTONIO GUTERRES, UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY-GENERAL: We cannot save a burning planet if we have a firehose of fossil fuels.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKENZIE (voice over): We are already living in a climate crisis. A new U.N. report shows that global efforts to cut emissions are wildly off track. There are growing calls at COP28 for concrete plans to phase out the use of fossil fuels.

[18:30:20]

Now, in a major announcement from the White House new rules from the Environmental Protection Agency to slash methane, a dangerous byproduct of the oil and gas industry by nearly 80 percent.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALI ZAIDI, WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL CLIMATE ADVISER: We've got to get the receipts, make sure we're making the progress we need to make in this critical decade.

MCKENZIE (on camera): Are you hoping that these new rules will be inspiring other countries to follow suit?\

ZAIDI: Absolutely. We've seen that on the basis of strong domestic action in the United States, countries are coming along. Adopting the same playbook and scaling those solutions worldwide.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKENZIE (voice over): Chief among them, China. The White House is hoping to build on the momentum of President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping's meetings last month.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZAIDI: China's got to step up in a big way to take a chunk out of emissions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKENZIE (voice over): Even as the Biden administration pushes the energy transition, U.S. oil production is breaking records, churning out more than 13 million barrels a day.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL HARE, CEO, CLIMATE ANALYTICS: It's really hypocritical both the Emirates and the U.S. are saying they're committed to one and a half degrees. But you can't be committed to the Paris Agreement's temperature limit if you go on expanding fossil fuel production.

MCKENZIE (on camera): There are very bold pronouncements on one hand and actions on the other. Are the two lining up?

HARE: No, they're not. One of the big concerns that many have about the process here is that we're seeing an awful lot of announcements which are never followed up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCKENZIE (voice over): The White House climate advisor says that the key to the new rules are enforcement. He would not say whether the U.S. will commit to a fossil fuel phase-out. There are intense negotiations happening here. Scientists say that if there aren't deep emissions cuts globally, the world could face a climate catastrophe. Jim?

ACOSTA: Thank you very much, David.

Let's discuss more with CNN's Chief Climate Correspondent, Bill Weir. Bill, one of the major headlines coming out of this conference today seems to be around this agreement to cut methane emissions. Folks at home might be saying, okay, what's the big deal there? Bring us up to speed.

BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: Well, methane, which we know best as natural gas, that's the way it's marketed here, it is mostly methane, which if you think about heat-trapping qualities of these gases, if carbon dioxide is a blanket of average thickness around the planet holding in the heat, methane is a blanket that's as thick as LeBron James' tall. And we actually had a camera that shows you what it looks like, this invisible gas. This is the Permian Basin in Texas a couple years ago. We went down there with these special cameras.

The Environmental Defense Fund is a specialty of this sort of thing, spotting this and calling out super polluters. Enough of this stuff leaks every year to heat 2 million homes in Texas. And they've been promising to do this for a long time. President Biden, one of the very first acts is he - after he took the office was to tighten up methane rules, something that Obama tried to do but Trump rolled back. Now they're formalizing it with the help of 50 big oil majors, including ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco and many others saying they will agree.

And for the first time ever, China is now saying they will address this in their country. It mostly comes from coal mines. And so there's fewer of them than the thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of orphaned wells, fracking wells around the United States right now.

So the Environmental Defense Fund, which is actually going to launch a satellite next year as a watchdog, they're now encouraging third-party private firms to join in as EPA watchdogs and report these plumes as they see them flying around the Earth. So this could be a big deal. But then the main activists and diplomats would say, but this doesn't stop the source of the problem. This caps a little bit, this is like going on a diet by picking out, I'm going to skip desserts, whereas the main meal is the stuff that everybody really wants to see them make firm promises on. And that is the beginning of the end of fossil fuels need to happen at this COP.

ACOSTA: Right. And the U.S. announced a series of climate initiatives today, including that $3 billion to the Green Fund that we mentioned earlier. How significant are these pledges? And, Bill, if you would allow me, is it fair for me to ask, what is the carbon footprint of all of these leaders from all over the world going to Dubai to talk about climate change? Isn't it - isn't that a little odd-sounding ...

WEIR: Yes.

ACOSTA: ... in a place that is in a very oil-rich part of the world? I just - I present that question. Feel free to tell me that is completely unfair.

WEIR: Absolutely. No, that's a fair question. It comes up at every COP and there are more sensible ways to get there. Commercial is a much smaller footprint than flying your private jet and so on and so forth.

[18:35:04]

And, I mean, some would argue, look, the alternative is them not talking at all and nobody meeting and nothing being done. And so even the cynics can see some value as certain blocks of countries come together and do some actionable things right now. As for the $3 billion to the Green Fund, that's kind of a make-good because on the opening day of COP, they established the first-ever loss and damage fund. This have been talked about for a long time.

Promises have been made of a hundred billion a year to developing countries to really brace for these bigger storms and longer droughts. The United States kicked in $17.5 million compared to a hundred million from Germany and France and (inaudible) right there. So the rest of the world is saying, you guys are the biggest legacy polluters. You owe the biggest part of our tab for this mess. And Vice President Harris doing a little more, chipping in a little bit more to that check.

ACOSTA: Yes, and there was some criticism for the U.S. that the Biden administration was not doing enough to make a contribution to this effort as a part of the summit, so that - a response there of sorts. Bill Weir, always great to talk to you. Great subject. Let's talk again soon about this.

WEIR: You bet.

ACOSTA: Let's not wait too long to do it again. Thanks a lot, Bill.

WEIR: Thanks, Jim.

ACOSTA: Appreciate it.

Still ahead, Trump and DeSantis are in Iowa right now courting voters. Next, we'll run the numbers on the state of the race with Harry Enten.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:40:36]

ACOSTA: Florida governor Ron DeSantis has now visited all 99 counties in the crucial state of Iowa, but he's still running well behind former President Donald Trump with Nikki Haley hot on his heels in the Hawkeye State. During DeSantis' debate with California governor, Gavin Newsom, on Thursday, Newsom delivered this zinger.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM (D) CALIFORNIA: There's one thing in closing that we have in common is neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: CNN Senior Data Reporter, Harry Enten, joins us to run the numbers. Harry, is Gov. Newsom on to something here?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: I'll leave it up to Daniel Dale. But on this particular one, I think we do have an answer here, and I do believe that the governor of California is going to be correct. You were talking about that Iowa polling that says, obviously, DeSantis has tied for second place with Nikki Haley, but let's take a look nationally, because I think this really tells the story.

At the beginning of the year, if you look back to March, our CNN poll, it was a dead heat between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis was a little bit ahead, but well within the margin of error. Take a look at where we are now. Donald Trump is over 40 points ahead of the governor of Florida.

You know, Jim, I like to go through history. There's simply put no historical analogy that Ron DeSantis could look to at this point based upon the polling and say he's going to be the nominee. Every single person in Trump's position in the national polls has gone on to win, and at this particular point, I'm not really sure why I would disagree with history.

ACOSTA: Even with that Iowa history of sometimes things can break late, candidates can catch fire towards the end, even with that in mind.

ENTEN: Even with that in mind, yes, that's true. But the other thing I point out, if you win, even if he did decently in Iowa, he's still running fourth in the state of New Hampshire. I mean, where is he supposed to go from Iowa to New Hampshire next? He's basically - this just doesn't work, at least at this point.

Obviously, we still have a month to go. We'll see what happens. I'll never say never.

ACOSTA: Yes.

ENTEN: But at this point, it does seem like the Florida governor is not made for prime time at least in a presidential campaign.

ACOSTA: Interesting. And Harry, Chris Christie is in danger of not making the next debate. How much support does he have? ENTEN: Yes, so, in New Hampshire, which I was just mentioning, he's in

third place. But that's his best state. He's at 14 percent in our recent CNN-UNH poll. But that's basically the only place he's playing. In Iowa, he's at 4 percent. He's way back. South Carolina, the third state in the calendar, 2 percent; Nevada, 2 percent, the fourth state in the calendar. And nationally, he's at 2 percent.

This is why he's in danger of not making the debate. It's because even though he's polling well in New Hampshire, everywhere else, he's a non-entity. And the fact is, his unfavorable ratings are so high. At this point, they're up there with the highest unfavorable ratings among Republicans running for president, basically ever at this point.

ACOSTA: That's not good news. And speaking of politicians with a popularity problem, let's talk about George Santos. How bad was it before he got expelled and have to think that the numbers are going to make us wince here.

ENTEN: I think so. We had so much fun yesterday, Jim, on max, that I had to bring back some George Santos for you. And we had polling earlier in the year from his district, the percentage of voters who had a favorable view of him, it was just 7 percent.

ACOSTA: Wow.

ENTEN: Just 7 percent. I want to put some context to that. Ten percent of Americans believe the Earth is flat. 12 percent of Americans believe we faked landing on the moon. Those are sort of the Mendoza lines. Those were basically - you can get 10 percent of Americans to agree on anything, but you couldn't even get 10 percent of his own constituents to like him.

So the fact that he's expelled now, I think his constituents are more than okay with that. I think they may actually be jumping for joy on Long Island.

ACOSTA: Yes. And just for the record, the Earth is round and we did not fake ...

ENTEN: yes.

ACOSTA: ... the moon landing. But ...

ENTEN: Yes.

ACOSTA: ... George Santos is unpopular, that is very true.

ENTEN: Facts first, Jim.

ACOSTA: Facts first, exactly. And we can't let you go, Harry, without talking about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, which I know is a passion of yours. A lot of people are arguing over whether their relationship is just a PR stunt. What do the odd makers say? What do the numbers tell us about that?

[18:45:01] ENTEN: I was talking with my producer, Sydney (ph), and she believes

that this relationship is 100 percent real and I believe in love. But I also believe in the numbers and the odds makers decided to say, okay, will they in fact still be together by the next NFL season? A 39 percent chance that they will be, 61 percent say no. But you know what, 39 percent ain't half bad.

So maybe just ...

ACOSTA: Yes.

ENTEN: ... maybe they will still be together by next season and I am rooting for them because love, as my uncle once wrote, will keep us together, Jim.

ACOSTA: Absolutely. And I think when it comes to those numbers, they just have to shake it off. Harry, I think - I'm sorry, that was terrible.

ENTEN: Beautiful.

ACOSTA: In the meantime ...

ENTEN: No, no, no, no.

ACOSTA: I'm going to do one of these for you whatever that is. All right. How does that work? Yes, something like that.

ENTEN: There you go.

ACOSTA: All right, very good.

ENTEN: Something like that.

ACOSTA: Harry Enten ...

ENTEN: I don't know, I'm not that hip.

ACOSTA: ... neither am I. All right, we'll end it there, just to be merciful to everybody else. Harry, thanks a lot. Harry Enten, always a pleasure. Appreciate it.

ENTEN: Thank you.

ACOSTA: Be sure to check out Harry's podcast, "Margins of Error." You can find it on your favorite podcast app or at cnn.com/audio and we will be right back.

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[18:50:33]

ACOSTA: Tomorrow, we're bringing you the all-new CNN film, Chowchilla, which tells one of the most shocking true crime stories. It's about the 1976 kidnapping of a school bus full of children and their driver. They were buried underground for more than 12 hours before they managed to figure out how to escape. The incident became a turning point in our understanding and treatment of childhood trauma.

And CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, has more. And we do want to warn you, you may find some of these following images disturbing.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're trying to locate 26 lost children along with their driver.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): This is a story that stopped the nation dead in its tracks. July 1976 a bus full of children on their way home from summer school, held at gunpoint by three masked men, forced into a trailer and then buried underground. The kidnappers, hoping to be paid a huge ransom.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The bus has been found. There are no signs of violence and there are only horrified guesses as to what may have happened.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA (voice over): Ultimately, after 28 hours, somehow, they managed to escape and authorities were quick to say there was "no indication of harm." That was something child psychiatrist Dr. Lenora Terr did not believe.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. LENOR TERR, CHILD PSYCHIATRIST: The kids were not okay. Somebody got a psychiatrist to come to town and he made a prediction. He said, one kid in this 26 is going to have a problem. But what happened was that no parent wanted to admit that his kid was the one in 26. By the time I got out here, a hundred percent of those kids were having problems.

DR. SPENCER ETH, CHIEF OF MEDICAL HEALTH, MIAMI VA HEALTHCARE SYSTEM: Well, there was no diagnosis of post traumatic stress disorder in 1976. It not only didn't exist for children. It didn't exist for adults either. There was no protocol. There was no way that we knew how to respond after this event at that time.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA (voice over): They did what they thought was best, send the kids on a trip to Disneyland, never speak about it again, and just allow those children to move on with their lives. It didn't work.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LARRY PARK, CHOWCHILLA BUS KIDNAPPING SURVIVOR: The trip to Disneyland was an intrusion into the nightmare. That's all it was.

GUPTA (on camera): But children are resilient. They will forget. Best not to bring it up because that could cause harm. That seemed to be the thinking, right?

ETH: I think that there was the wish that children would recover, forget about the event, and go on with their lives as though it never happened.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA (voice over): Even when the kidnappers were caught, there were court hearings and they continued to bring up this question of harm.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDWARD MERRILL, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: There's very little physical damage at all, and practically it's a nonexistence.

GUPTA (on camera): There is no physical harm here. That was their case. Can we say definitively that emotional trauma causes physical harm?

ETH: Well, I think it causes brain changes, which - and the brain is a physical object. So, in that regard I would have to say yes. But I think the most important issue is that the psychological emotional harm is robust. It's life altering. And it is of a magnitude comparable to a physical harm.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA (voice over): Life altering, which is exactly what Dr. Terr found after studying the children of Chowchilla for five years. And it was her work that paved the way to accepting that childhood trauma was real, and it produced long lasting effects.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ETH: From the scientific standpoint, it was a landmark of it. And now we know how to assess them, diagnose them and offer them treatment. And the Chowchilla work of Lenore Terr and then subsequent work by others, has established child PTSD as legitimate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA (voice over): But for Terr, the children of Chowchilla are the ones who made the biggest impact.

[18:55:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TERR: They paved the way for us to understand more contemporary things. What happens when you force children away from their parents at a border? What happens to children at some of these horrible school shootings?

PARK: Because of the Chowchilla kidnapping, there were counselors at Columbine after the shooting. There are counselors at night clubs after shootings.

TERR: Chowchilla children are heroes and they continue to teach us what childhood trauma is 46, 47, 48, 50 years after the fact.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUPTA (voice over): Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ACOSTA: And be sure to tune in. The all-new CNN film, "Chochilla," premieres tomorrow at 9 PM Eastern and Pacific only on CNN and we'll be right back.

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