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CNN International: Iowa Republicans to Pick a Presidential Nominee Monday; Donald Trump Looking for Big Win in Iowa Caucuses; Iowa Braces for Coldest Caucuses on Record; Trump Leads in New Iowa Poll, Haley Surpasses DeSantis; China Issues Stern Warning to Taiwan After Election. Aired 4-4:30a ET
Aired January 15, 2024 - 04:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[04:00:00]
BIANCA NOBILO, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and a warm welcome to our viewers joining us in the United States and all around the world. I'm Bianca Nobilo.
MAX FOSTER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Max Foster, joining you live from London, just ahead on CNN Newsroom.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, U.S. REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Brave the weather and go out and save America because that's what you're doing. This is really about saving our country.
NIKKI HALEY, U.S. REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Don't complain about what happens in a general election if you don't play in this caucus. It matters.
RON DESANTIS, U.S. REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would much rather be an underdog. That's how I've done every race that I've ever been in.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Brutally cold air over Iowa. Temperatures are going to be down 10 to 20 degrees below zero Fahrenheit.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Whether the Republican coalition feels sufficiently motivated to come out on a night when it's going to be below zero, black ice and horrific wind chills remains to be seen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Live from London, this is CNN NEWSROOM with Max Foster and Bianca Nobilo.
FOSTER: It is Monday, January 15th, 9 a.m. here in London, 3 a.m. in Iowa, where Republican voters are just hours away now from officially kicking off the 2024 race for the White House.
NOBILO: The state is home to the first in the nation presidential caucuses. Iowa Republicans will have to brave some brutal weather to make their voices heard with snow falling across the state and wind chills as low as 45 degrees below zero expected throughout the day. Still, the state's Republican chair is predicting a robust turnout despite the cold.
FOSTER: The latest polling shows former President Donald Trump with a very comfortable lead over his two closest competitors, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, and all of the presidential hopefuls spent Sunday crisscrossing the state looking to drum up last-minute support from undecided voters.
CNN teams have been following the top candidates on the ground in Iowa, and our Kristen Holmes was on the campaign trail with Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Former President Donald Trump delivered a very lengthy final message to Iowa caucus goers encouraging them to brave the storm, to even brave their own health. Part of the big goal of Donald Trump and his team is to get as many people out there to caucus on Monday night as possible.
All of this because they are looking for the widest margin they can possibly win by to set the tone for primary season. Donald Trump was pushing that narrative on Sunday. Here's what he said.
TRUMP: You must go caucus tomorrow. First step. Really the first step. We got to do it. We got to do it big. You got to get out. You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. Remember, if you're sick, if you're just so sick, you can't. Darling, I don't think. Get up.
HOLMES: Now, obviously, that was somewhat of a joke, but it is very important to Trump to have people turn up. We know that he has been telling people close to him that he is concerned about the weather, that he is concerned about turnout. And a lot of this isn't just about getting the biggest amount of delegates. It's also about setting momentum and stopping momentum going into New Hampshire from any of his GOP rivals, particularly when it comes to Nikki Haley.
His team has been watching her very closely. They have seen her poll numbers ticking up. They are already spending millions of dollars attacking her in ads in New Hampshire. However, they are hoping that a big win, a big showing in Iowa would crush some of that momentum.
The other part of this is that Donald Trump has been concerned that because of the fact that he has been leading by so much in the polls, that people will become complacent, that they won't show up because they think that Donald Trump already has enough support. So, again, big part of his message going into the caucuses is show up no matter what happens. The very most important thing you can do is show up in caucus.
Kristen Holmes, CNN, Indianola, Iowa.
(END VIDEOTAPE) NOBILO: The latest Iowa poll puts Nikki Haley in second place behind Donald Trump. But she's hoping the caucuses will move her closer to the former president.
FOSTER: Yes, on Sunday, she urged Iowans to look ahead when deciding which candidate to support.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HALEY: The only way we're going to win the majority of Americans is if we have a new generational leader that leaves the negativity and the baggage behind and focuses on the solutions of the future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOSTER: Kylie Atwood has more from the Haley campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's Nikki Haley hitting a number of topics that we have heard her repeat throughout her entire campaign on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, saying that there needs to be a school choice in the United States.
[04:05:00]
There needs to be more resources put towards defending the border. The need to defend Ukraine in order to prevent war.
And also notably hitting on the electability argument, saying in a theoretical matchup with her and President Biden, she would commandingly beat him, saying that isn't the case for Trump. That isn't the case for DeSantis. And talked about the fact that Republicans in the last seven of the last eight presidential elections have lost the popular vote.
She is casting herself as the next generational leader who can change that. Now, there was a poll out over the weekend from the Des Moines Register and NBC showing that she is pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis. But, of course, Ron DeSantis has put tremendous resources into the state of Iowa. And expectations are incredibly high for him.
Nikki Haley's team, for their part, saying that they hope that she has a strong showing in Iowa, but not exactly defining what that would look like.
Kylie Atwood, CNN, Adele, Iowa.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FOSTER: Ron DeSantis says his campaign has built a great army in the state and is forecasting a strong performance.
NOBILO: Confident DeSantis says he'll beat rival Nikki Haley, but it was his other opponent, Donald Trump, who received the bulk of the attacks at the Florida governor's final campaign stop on Sunday. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DESANTIS: He's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. That's what he cares about. You can be the most worthless Republican in America. But if you kiss the ring, he'll say you're wonderful.
You can be the strongest, most dynamic, successful Republican and conservative in America. But if you don't kiss that ring, then he'll try to trash you. You know what? You deserve a nominee that's going to put you first, not himself first.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NOBILO: So the weather's making this even more interesting because the Arctic blast hitting Iowa will bring the coldest temperatures that the state has ever seen on a caucus day. Roads throughout the state have been blanketed in snow as crews battle through piercing winds to clean it up. Des Moines could spend days below zero degrees Fahrenheit. The last time that happened was almost three years ago.
FOSTER: Parts of Iowa under wind chill warnings where it's so cold that frostbite on exposed skin could happen in as little as 10 minutes. More now on the forecast from CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: it's Yes, brutally cold air over Iowa. Temperatures are going to be down 10 to 20 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. We have 18 inches of snow on the ground in some places. And by morning, there will be places that will be 20 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. That's pushing 30 below Celsius. But the wind chill in Des Moines at voting time, minus 31 degrees Fahrenheit.
It has never been this cold in recent history since the 70s. Anyway, 16 degrees was the old coldest high. And for today, we will be minus four Fahrenheit.
Something else to think about here. This is cold. People -- a lot of people are saying, hey, it's winter. Get used to it. No, this is 30 degrees colder than we should be in Des Moines. Somewhere around 26 degrees Fahrenheit will be the high for today on a normal day. That's just not going to happen. We're 30 degrees colder than that.
Something else that's happened here. This, up to this point, has been the warmest winter on record. So many things are not acclimated for this. We're not ready for 20 degrees, 30 degrees below normal. And we'll have to see what happens here.
What the turnout looks like will certainly be a good question. I think we'll find that out on Tuesday or Wednesday.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
NOBILO: The final poll in Iowa signals that Donald Trump could be on the verge of a historic win. FOSTER: But you might remember he lost the Iowa Republican caucus in
2016. CNN's John King takes a closer look at the latest numbers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Let's just look at the last Iowa poll. Very reliable poll over the years. Not necessarily if you're picking the winners. In 2016, Ted Cruz passed Donald Trump. And in 2012, Santorum passed Romney. But never have you had a lead like this.
Donald Trump at 48 in the last poll. If you go back five months, he was at 42. So he hasn't been out there as much as the other candidates, hasn't spent as much money as the other candidates. And yet he goes from 42 to 48 over the course of five months. DeSantis, flatline and down a little bit from 19 to 16. Haley does have some up at the end.
Do you call it momentum? That's the big debate, right? She's up to 20 percent. Still a 28-point gap between the two of them. But this is what's interesting when you look at the poll.
We've talked about how Trump supporters tend to be more enthusiastic, more excited, more locked in, more dedicated. Look at this. 88 percent of Trump supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their candidate.
If it's going to be as cold as Chad Meyers says it's going to be, you want your people to be very enthusiastic. DeSantis, that's not a bad number. 62 percent say enthusiastic or very enthusiastic.
This is a problem sign for Haley. We'll see what happens tomorrow. But some of her voters are more moderate Republicans. Some of them are Democrats or independents.
[04:10:00]
They're not usual caucus goers. If they're not all that enthusiastic and it's horrible out, do they show up?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FOSTER: Thomas Gift is director of the Center for U.S. Politics at University College London. He joins us now. Thanks so much for joining us, Thomas. I'm wondering what this election is really about, this caucus, because Trump is so far ahead. It's very difficult to see either of the other two coming close. So is it about coming second?
THOMAS GIFT, DIRECTOR, CENTER ON U.S. POLITICS, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON: Well, thanks so much for having me, Max. It's great to be with you, as always. I think that it is about coming in second.
Right now the odds that there's some kind of an upset in Iowa I think are about the same as Trump admitting that he lost the 2020 election. It's just hard to imagine. The last Des Moines Register poll had Trump at 48 percent compared to Haley at 20 percent and DeSantis at 16 percent.
That is an enormous lead. And I think in the last 40 or so years, no candidate has gone into a contested primary with that kind of margin and lost. The last time we had a candidate with an even comparable number was George W. Bush, who was polling at about 60 percent in 2000, and he went on to beat John McCain.
But ultimately, you're right. This is about second place. It's about who's getting momentum heading into New Hampshire.
I think for Nikki Haley, it's less do or die. But for Ron DeSantis, who's really staked his entire campaign on Iowa, he needs to come in second. Otherwise, I think that his campaign is effectively dead.
NOBILO: And, Thomas, in terms of the composition of Iowa, the political sympathies, what can we extrapolate from the result there and apply nationally as we look ahead to Election Day this year?
GIFT: No, that's absolutely a great question. One of the things about the primaries is that all of these states are highly idiosyncratic. Iowa is much more rural. It's much more Christian. It's much more smaller towns in the country as a whole. So in some ways, I think it is difficult to extrapolate.
The same goes for New Hampshire, where there's just a history of much more independent streak.
So, you know, these early primaries, they don't matter, I think, as much because they are a bellwether on how much voters are going to support one or the other candidate. But they matter because of momentum. Momentum is everything.
And if Trump, particularly in this context, is able to get out to a strong lead, I think he's going to squash the competition and it's just going to be a coronation from there.
FOSTER: Is it a bit of a problem that he's far ahead, though, in terms of turnout, particularly when you've got that terrible weather? If people assume he's going to win, maybe he won't get the turnout he wants. And maybe Nikki Haley's team, for example, would do better.
GIFT: Well, I do think that the weather could be a factor, and I think your analysis that was shown just now really hit the nail on the head. I think it's difficult, though, to project who it's likely to help and who it's likely to hurt.
It will probably depress turnout among retirees and older voters, and that is disproportionately part of Trump's base. But at the same time, Trump's voters are more enthusiastic. So if you think about it, who's more likely to brave the snow and subzero weather? It's the true believers. And if you can say one thing about the MAGA base, it's that there are a lot of true believers.
But I think Donald Trump is concerned that his lead has been so great and he's been presenting himself so much as this inevitable candidate that a lot of voters might just say, well, it's a done deal. I'll go home and I won't turn out to the polls.
So I think for Trump, he really wants to get at least 50 percent of the vote. I think that that's the threshold, because his whole rationale up until this point for not participating in the debates and for saying that all the other candidates should drop out has been that he has more than half of the electorate. So if he comes in much less than that, I think it's maybe somewhat of a problem.
And in that case, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis probably will spill blood going into New Hampshire.
NOBILO: Thomas, as far as I understand it, if the actual result in Iowa reflects that most recent poll, which we said just a few minutes ago, that would be the best result ever for a non incumbent if Donald Trump got those numbers as a political scientist and somebody that immerses themselves in this all the time.
Are you genuinely surprised by that, given the number of indictments against him, the fact that this doesn't seem to have dented his popularity at all?
GIFT: Well, Bianca, we've been talking about this for months and I've been saying that Trump's grip on the Republican Party is as strong as it's ever been. And so I'm not backing away from that. It really doesn't surprise me.
If you think about what the causes of this are, it's multifaceted. But I think what a Trump landslide would imply fundamentally is that grievance politics works. Before Trump, the term deep state wasn't part of the political lexicon. Neither was weaponization of the legal system. But with these 91 criminal indictments, with the effort to kick Trump off the ballot in Colorado and Maine, Trump has over and over depicted himself as the victim. But he's also done more than that.
[04:15:00]
He's really presented himself as this martyr for a whole class of Americans who think of themselves as being left behind. Blue collar workers in these post-industrial towns gutted by globalization and automation. Evangelical Christians who think that their way of life is under assault. Citizens who don't like rapid demographic change.
There's just this palpable sense, and I see it here in central Pennsylvania where I am, which has demographics very similar to parts of Iowa. But Trump represents them in a way that other politicians don't. And so everything else, the tweets, the criminality, the demagoguery, the taking an axe to the Constitution, all that kind of fades into oblivion if they think that Trump is representing them.
FOSTER: OK, Thomas Gift, thank you so much.
NOBILO: Two days after an historic election in Taiwan, the U.S. is offering congratulations while the island loses an ally. We'll have the latest on that.
Plus --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HALEY: he's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. Now he knows this is becoming a two person race. So I know that he knows the truth. It doesn't bother me at all.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOSTER: Nikki Haley hits back at Donald Trump for calling her, quote, not tough enough. We'll have more on that interview coming up.
NOBILO: And Texas state officials are facing intense scrutiny after three migrants, a woman and two children drowned in the Rio Grande River. What the White House says Texas should have done. Coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:20:00]
NOBILO: The U.S. says its relations with Taiwan are, quote, rock solid. It comes after Taiwan held legislative and presidential elections on Saturday, which have drawn strong condemnation from the Chinese government.
FOSTER: An unofficial U.S. delegation is in Taiwan showing unity after the election. After the island's ruling party secured an historic third consecutive presidential term.
NOBILO: CNN's Steven Jiang joins us live from Beijing. But let's start with Will Ripley, who's in Taipei for us.
Will, is there a concern among the Taiwanese about these arguments that the opposition parties were making that by reelecting this party, they're putting Taiwan on more of a course of conflict with China?
WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, there's a lot of things that Taiwan believes China is trying to do to isolate Taiwan and intimidate Taiwan on a global stage.
And so this show of support in Taipei, these former U.S. officials, the former deputy secretary of state, the former national security adviser, meeting with not only the outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, but the president elect Lai Ching-da and the vice president elect Hsiao Bi-khim. This is significant for Taiwan, and it comes at a crucial time that yet another country, that now the 10th country under the past eight years of President Tsai's two-term presidency, has cut ties with Taiwan.
So Taiwan learned just a matter of hours ago that the small Pacific island nation of Nauru has cut ties for the second time. They did it back in 2002, and then they resumed ties with Taiwan in 2005.
Now, just for context here, Taiwan only has, out of the entire world, just a dozen, 12 remaining diplomatic allies, and mainly small countries in the Pacific Ocean and Latin America. Countries that get a considerable amount of financial concessions from the Taiwanese government in order to maintain that formal diplomatic relationship that provides some semblance of legitimacy, that this government, you know, formal diplomatic legitimacy. They don't have formal diplomatic ties with most countries around the world, including, of course, the United States and China, which has never recognized their country and their government as legitimate.
So, you know, just hours, literally hours or days after the election on Saturday for this yet another country to sever diplomatic ties and then, you know, be welcomed into the diplomatic fold by Beijing, this is yet another example from the Taiwanese perspective of this diplomatic isolation, in addition to the sanctions that China has slapped on this self-governing democracy, in addition to the military intimidation, whether it be spy balloons or drones or a satellite launch that traveled over southern Taiwan or military exercises that happened in the Taiwan Strait after Nancy Pelosi's visit and other times subsequently. Even though the weather on the Taiwan Strait is not so great right now in this winter months, so they can't do military drills, but they might do what Taiwan believes closer to the inauguration of Taiwan's new president in May.
FOSTER: And Steven, obviously some of the reaction from China to this was predicted, but did you, what did you read into the tone? Does it feel more aggressive to you or can we learn anything from it?
STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: Actually not surprising and perhaps the least drastic of China's options after this election. And China, of course, has been blasting any country, any government that has congratulated Taiwan on its election success, including to president-elect Lai himself, not just the United States, but also the U.K., Canada and Japan.
The Chinese foreign minister who was actually in Cairo on a previously scheduled trip using that location to reinforce his government's claim over Taiwan, pointing to the 1943 Cairo Declaration as yet another proof of Taiwan being part of China has been a decades-long international consensus. Even though that declaration is not without controversies and has been open to different interpretations.
But still, with all this perceived added urgency and increasing importance of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a lot of experts say Beijing's hands may be somewhat tight right now because they're facing a lot of domestic challenges.
And I will mention some of the practical reasons that we may not see a lot of drastic actions just yet, given the weather in the Taiwan Strait and also what Beijing may not want to give Lai more ammunition to bolster his arguments against the Chinese threats before he formally takes office.
But perhaps most importantly, Xi Jinping has been investing a lot of his credibility in recent months to tamp down tensions with the West, especially with the U.S. in a crucial election year.
[04:25:00] So that's why a lot of experts say China may not want to provoke Washington at this juncture, especially as we head into a very turbulent campaign season -- Max and Bianca.
FOSTER: OK, Steven, Will Ripley, thank you both of you.
Now, frigid temperatures, falling snow, ice covered roads, will a brutal bout of winter weather keep Republicans away from the first in the nation Iowa caucuses. We'll look at what's at stake as the race for the White House kicks off.
NOBILO: Last calls are growing louder for the release of Hamas hostages. More than 100 days into the war with Israel. We'll have the latest on the conflict.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NOBILO: Welcome back to CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Bianca Nobilo.
I'm Max Foster. If you're just joining us, let me bring you up to date with our top stories this hour.
The race for the White House kicks into high gear in just a matter of hours when Republican presidential hopefuls face off in the first in the nation Iowa caucuses.
NOBILO: But there is concern that voter turnout could be much lower than expected as Iowa faces a brutal round of winter weather. Candidates braved the cold on Sunday to crisscross the state looking for last-minute support as Donald Trump lashed out at his opponents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Ron DeSanctimonious and Nikki Haley will never secure our border, and they'll never come close to it.
Ron and Nikki also want to gut Social Security and Medicare for Seniors. Now they're changing their tune. First of all, they're both getting killed by Biden in the polls.
