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Countdown to New Hampshire Primary; Fears War Could Spread; Hate Crime Spike. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired January 21, 2024 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[03:00:00]

PAULA NEWTON, CNN ANCHOR: And a very warm welcome to our viewers here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Paula Newton.

Ahead here on CNN Newsroom, two days until the New Hampshire primary and the Republican candidates are making their pitches as we near the finish line.

Fears that the Israel-Hamas War could spread in the region. Iran now saying it will punish Israel for a missile strike in Syria.

And an alarming rise of hate crime in Canada. Both Muslims and Jews fearing they could be targets because of their religion.

And thanks for joining us. We do begin here in the United States as the presidential race becomes increasingly bitter with just two days to go before the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Now, former President Donald Trump remains the front runner overall, but his lead in the state has shrunk. According to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has surged in recent months and has cut Trump's lead to single digits.

On Saturday, both ramped up attacks against each other as they made their final push to the voters. Haley questioned Trump's mental fitness after he appeared to confuse her with former U.S. House Speaker and Democrat Nancy Pelosi. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: By the way, they never report the crowd on January 6th. You know, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, did you know they destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence, everything? Nikki Haley is in charge of security. We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guards, whatever they want. They turned it down.

NIKKI HALEY, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And he's going on and on, mentioning me multiple times as to why I didn't take security during the Capitol riots, why I didn't handle January 6th better. We can't have someone else that we question whether they're mentally fit to do this. (END VIDEO CLIP)

NEWTON: Our reporters are on the campaign trail. CNN's Alayna Treene is traveling with the former president. And we go first now to Kylie Atwood, who is following Nikki Haley's campaign.

KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Nikki Haley is barnstorming the state of New Hampshire, of course, just days ahead of the primary on Tuesday with her campaign really focused on having a strong showing here in New Hampshire. She is hitting former President Trump in a more distinct way than we have seen her do previously, questioning his mental fitness after he had a gap at a campaign rally where he confused her and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and also going after him for the ads that he has put on the T.V.s here in New Hampshire, saying that they're full of lies, trying to correct the record when it comes to what her positions are on gas tax and Social Security.

But former President Trump is campaigning with Tim Scott, senator of South Carolina and the governor of South Carolina, also this weekend. And, of course, that isn't a great thing for Nikki Haley. She is from South Carolina. Her campaign, for their part, says that they are not focused on racking up endorsements that they claim don't matter. They're focused on a strong showing in New Hampshire. They're not defining exactly what that means. They're also focused on beginning to compete in South Carolina, announcing that they will be investing $4 million in a media ad buy in South Carolina starting just next week.

Kylie Atwood, CNN, Nashville, New Hampshire.

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Well, with just three days to go until the New Hampshire primary, Donald Trump is escalating his attacks on his rival Nikki Haley. And part of that strategy is by using leaders from South Carolina and trying to paint her as not being very well liked by people in her own backyard.

On Saturday, Trump called up a series of South Carolina lawmakers to the stage, including South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster, a fierce Trump ally who endorsed him back in 2022. And, of course, that comes after Friday night, where Donald Trump also picked up a massive endorsement from South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.

I'm told from of my conversations with Trump's campaign that they had really been courting his endorsement ever since he dropped out of the presidential race last year.

[03:05:07]

But they had really accelerated that timeline because they wanted to try and have it come right before New Hampshire.

Again, New Hampshire is a state where they are worried about Nikki Haley's rise in the polls, especially her popularity with moderates and independents. And so you're seeing the campaign and Donald Trump himself try to implement every tactic they can to undercut her in these final days. Now, another thing I like to point your attention to is Donald Trump also defended his cognitive abilities while on stage. That comes after a gaffe that Trump had on Friday, where he seemed to confuse Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi when talking about security at the Capitol on January 6th, 2021. We should point out that Nikki Haley was not in office then and had nothing to do with security at the Capitol during that time. But Donald Trump continuously brought up her name on Friday.

And that's your response from Nikki Haley. She had said that perhaps it shows Trump is not mentally fit for office. Take a listen to how Trump responded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If I'm sarcastic, like a lot of times I'll say, and President Obama is doing a lousy job, meaning that Obama is running the show. They'll say, Donald Trump doesn't know who our president is.

No, no. A few months ago, I took a cognitive test. My doctor gave me. I said, give me a cognitive test just so we can -- you know, because you know what the standards were. And I aced it.

I'll let you know when I go bad, I really think I'll be able to tell you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TREENE: Now, I can tell you that this is an argument that actually bothers Donald Trump personally. We know that Donald Trump often likes to use these attacks on Joe Biden and doesn't really like the fire being trained on himself, and I think that's why you saw him try to bring this up tonight and address it head on.

Alayna Treene, CNN, Manchester, New Hampshire.

NEWTON: In the meantime, confusion surrounded Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' campaign on Saturday. He abruptly canceled two Sunday T.V. appearances, including an interview with CNN, citing scheduling issues. The governor spent the day campaigning hundreds of miles away in South Carolina, whose primary is more than a month away now. His campaign later announced he will be back in New Hampshire campaigning on Sunday.

Linda Fowler is a professor of government at Dartmouth College and joins me now from Hanover. New Hampshire. And good for you to be with us as we continue to try and parse what voters might be thinking in New Hampshire.

How has this race been different than years past, if it is different? I mean, just to remind our viewers, I mean, Trump won in 2016 and that really boosted his campaign at the time.

LINDA FOWLER, PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT, DARTHMOUTH COLLEGE: Well, that's true and in the past, New Hampshire has had a reputation for picking winners. Usually, people drop out after they've done badly in New Hampshire. And this year, we went from quite a crowded field at the beginning of the campaign season to basically two candidates left, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump.

It's also the case that Trump remained sort of outside the regular campaign. He didn't do any of the debates that the Republicans had this year.

The other thing that's interesting is that Trump came to New Hampshire. He didn't do that in 2016, except for some sort of airport visits, big hangars where his fancy plane pulled in and there would be rallies. And he didn't need to come here in 2020, but he started coming a few times this summer and he's been here in the winter cold several times. And that feels different as well.

It seems as if his campaign has two things in mind. First of all, let's put this away early so that he can get on to positioning himself vis-a-vis Biden. And, secondly, I can only think that part of his visits this weekend reflect the fact that he's feeling a little bit vulnerable to Nikki Haley.

NEWTON: Nikki Haley. And let's talk about that vulnerability a little bit. I mean, Nikki Haley seems to have finally found her stride. In terms of taking Trump on, we heard Trump a little earlier confusing her with Nancy Pelosi. And then we heard Haley, the response, a very pointed response. How much could this move public opinion? And I know that you scrutinize the polls, and that you've seen over the years, that sometimes in New Hampshire, people really don't make up their minds until the last minute.

FOWLER: That's correct, or they think they've met up their minds and they tell the pollster one thing and then when they go into the voting booth, they actually do something else.

And I worry about the polls. All the polls that I've read are using likely voters, but it doesn't look as if they've done the kind of screening that I used to do when I was polling in New Hampshire.

[03:10:02]

It's not just that people are likely to vote. You ask them about the last time they voted and whether they're still registered to vote because, remember, a lot of people move around.

NEWTON: So, I think what you're telling us is that we could still be in for some surprises here in New Hampshire?

FOWLER: I think it's possible. Do I think it's probable? I've seen too many New Hampshire primaries to want to answer that question.

NEWTON: A wise choice, a wise choice. Before we let you go, though, can you help us game out some scenarios here, because the party seemed to be going back and forth of the campaigns, I should say. So, Trump says if he wins, that's it. You know, he's got the momentum, he's going to close it out in New Hampshire. Do you think Nikki Haley has to win New Hampshire? FOWLER: Yes, I do. And then she has a month to go into South Carolina and try to pull something out there. And, of course, Trump was tormenting her today or yesterday with the announcement that Senator Tim Scott has endorsed Trump rather than Haley, a fellow South Carolinian.

And I think what's hard to see with this race right now is the consequences of the endorsement from the governor here.

NEWTON: Governor Sununu.

FOWLER: More importantly, the endorsement from Americans for Prosperity, which is a very wealthy, super PAC made up of conservative and libertarian billionaires who don't like Trump. And they announced in November that they would be backing Haley.

And what we don't know is whether it's a very extensive door knocking that they use as part of their campaigning, whether that's going to make a difference in New Hampshire and they can move that operation to South Carolina.

NEWTON: Yes, it could make all the difference when we talk about a ground game there.

Linda Fowler for us, thank you so much as we continue to await that New Hampshire vote and then the results. I really appreciate it.

FOWLER: It is my pleasure. Bye now.

NEWTON: Okay. Be sure to tune in to CNN on Tuesday for the New Hampshire primary election. Coverage begins right here on CNN at 1:00 P.M. Eastern, at 6:00 P.M. in London.

And to the Middle East now as the U.N. secretary general says opposition to a two-state solution is quote unacceptable. Antonio Guterres tweeted Saturday that the right of the Palestinian people to build their own state must be recognized by all. His comments come after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again poured cold water on any notion of a Palestinian state.

He posted this on social media Saturday, quote, I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over all of the territory west of Jordan, and this is contrary to a Palestinian state.

Now, as CNN reported earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden came away from a phone call with the Israeli leader saying, quote, there are a number of types of two-state solutions possible.

Now, there are fears, meantime, that the Israel-Hamas War could be spilling over to the rest of the region. Iran is vowing to punish Israel for this missile strike in Syria that killed five members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard who were on a military advisory mission in Damascus. Iran's president is calling the strike cowardly.

Israel is suspected of being behind the attack but Israeli officials are not commenting. In Iraq, meantime, Iranian-backed militias have claimed responsibility for an attack that injured Americans on the Al-Asad Airbase. It's not clear how many Americans were hurt. U.S. Central Command says a number of U.S. personnel are now being evaluated for traumatic brain injuries.

Now, we have full coverage of all the latest developments with Elliott Gotkine in London and Paula Hancocks with us in Dubai, and we begin with you, Paula.

Good to see you, as we continue to follow these developments. Now, Iran continues, as you well know, to play a pivotal role in so many of these incidents. What are they saying about that strike in Syria?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, they have said through the President at the top that there will be repercussions, that there will be payback for what happened. And what we are seeing is a continual tit-for-tat between the U.S. and Israel, and then Iran- backed proxies on the other side.

Now, there is much talk about whether or not this represents the fact that the conflict in Gaza has spread to the wider Middle East. We have heard from the Pentagon that they don't believe that this is a representation of the conflict spreading, but we are certainly seeing a significant number of attacks on both sides.

[03:15:08]

So, this particular one striking at the heart of Syria's capital in Damascus, this was believed to be, at least we're hearing from the Syrian and Iranian side, instigated by Israel, which they haven't admitted to. They very rarely do in these cases. And there were five members, as you say, of the Revolutionary Guard who were killed. One of them a particularly high level target, we understand.

So, what we're hearing from Iran's president is that there will be repercussions. Let's listen to his statement read out on Iranian state television.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The continuation of such terrorist and criminal acts show the increasing failure of the illegitimate Zionist regime to achieve its wicked goals and the depth of its desperation against the fighters of the resistance front. And these crimes will not be left unanswered by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANCOCKS: And then shortly afterwards, we did see a ballistic missile attack against a U.S. base in Iraq.

Now, we have seen more than 140 drone and rocket attacks against these U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since October 7th, since the war in Gaza started. But this was a ballistic missile strike, which is more powerful. And it appears to be only the second that we have seen since October 7th.

Now, we heard from the U.S. side, from Central Command, that they did have injuries. They haven't given us a number at this point, or specified exactly how serious those injuries were. But this was claimed by Islamic resistance in Iraq, which is, again, an Iranian- backed, Iranian-funded proxy. So, we really are seeing these tit-for- tat attacks increase in the region. Paula?

NEWTON: Yes, and as you point out with Iran, possibly promising more. Paula Hancocks for us in Abu Dhabi, I want to thank you.

We go now to Elliott Gotkine, who joins us now from London. We had spoken earlier about those tweets first sent out by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Now, Netanyahu has struck a fairly uncompromising tone, but things have changed a bit, especially with Israeli public opinion in recent days. The unity displayed after the war seems to be fraying. What more can you tell us?

ELLIOTT GOTKINE, JOURNALIST: Paula, in the wake of October 7th, a kind of national unity government was formed, bringing in Benny Gantz and also Gadi Eisenkot, both of them former chiefs of the general staff and Benny Gantz being one of the main leaders of the opposition. So, they put their differences aside to focus on the war effort.

So, it's not surprising that there are some differences of opinion within that war cabinet. And, of course, as far as Israeli society goes, poll after poll has shown that if there were elections held tomorrow, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud Party would be out on his ear.

So, those are some of the divisions internally going on. But, of course, we did hear from Prime Minister Netanyahu last week, so, as you say, an uncompromising tone, reiterating really his long-held stance, which is that there can be no two-state solution in this instance, saying that this is because Israel must retain security control effectively from the river to the sea.

Now, that prompted a number of responses. We had the E.U.'s top foreign policy chief saying that perhaps a two-state solution might need to be imposed on the parties because they're unable to agree to one by themselves.

Then we had this phone conversation between a private phone call between President Biden, they hadn't spoken in weeks, and Prime Minister Netanyahu. And CNN reported that as part of that conversation, Biden saying that Netanyahu didn't preclude the possibility of a Palestinian state in some shape or form.

But in response to that, the prime minister's office coming out and saying, well, actually, Israel is going to have to maintain security control again from the river to the sea. And then we've had those comments from the U.N. secretary general posting on X saying that the refusal to accept the two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians and the demand of the right to statehood for the Palestinian people are unacceptable. And it's worth noting as well that, of course, there are divisions in that war cabinet and indeed we heard from Gadi Eisenkot, who technically is an observer of the war cabinet, but he's taking part in all these meetings, and, in fact, lost his son who was fighting for the IDF in the Gaza Strip, saying not only is defeating Hamas not going to be possible, which is Prime Minister Netanyahu's main priority, and Netanyahu says that is possible, but he also says that fresh elections need to be called, Paula. So, some of those divisions coming to the surface are very quite clearly now.

NEWTON: Yes, obviously very momentous week to come there in Israel as well.

Elliott Gotkine for us from London, I appreciate it.

Still to come for us, Ukrainian troops are resorting to Soviet-era weapons as they await anxiously for western aid that may never come.

[03:20:00]

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NEWTON: For the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is publicly and clearly responding to Donald Trump's quip on quickly ending the war in Ukraine, calling the boast, quote, very dangerous.

Now, in May of last year, Trump told CNN he would have -- so he would have the conflict settled in 24 hours. But now, what concerns Zelenskyy is criticizing that remark, since Trump did not reveal his post-war scenario.

Meantime, Russian soldiers are finding out that refusing to fight comes at a cost. Seven of them have been sentenced to two to three years behind bars for refusing to take part in Russia's war in Ukraine in the summer and fall of last year. In one case, a soldier says he did not report to duty because of bad health. The court notes that while none of these seven verdicts are final, only one case is eligible for appeal.

Now, as U.S. President Joe Biden's $60 billion aid request for Ukraine is bogged down by Republicans in Congress, Ukrainian troops on the frontlines have no choice but to ration ammunition for weapons that are often decades old.

CNN's Fred Pleitgen now reports from Eastern Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

[03:25:00]

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The battle is already in full swing when the artillery unit gets their orders. Their Battle Cat Siyoma (ph) follows the commander to the U.S.-provided M777 gun and they get to work.

So, the soldiers have now been given a target and they're working as fast as possible to try and fire as many rounds as accurately towards the Russian positions.

Three rounds, that's it. The commander tells me ammo shortages are a real problem here. There is more of a deficit, he says. When we were in Zaporizhzhia direction, we used 50 to 60 shells a day. Now, it's 20 to 30 maximum.

The resupply truck only brings a few more rounds, and with U.S. military aid ground to a halt, things could get even tougher for the Ukrainians soon.

We're near Marinka on the eastern front. The Russians recently managed to take Marinka after essentially annihilating the entire town with their artillery.

Moscow's forces face no ammo shortages, the Ukrainians say, after getting around a million artillery rounds from North Korea in the past year.

Even as we prepare to leave, the position is under Russian fire. We drive away, constantly watching for Russian drones and possible artillery impacts.

Different day, different front line, similar problems for Ukraine's forces, major shortages. We're in the battle zone near Avdiivka with a special forces unit called Omega.

It's 22 degrees below freezing. They want to fire artillery rockets at the Russians, but lacking western arms, they've mounted a Soviet-era launcher on a U.S.-made pickup truck. They set up fast, but then this.

So, one of the issues that the Ukrainians have using this very old technology is that sometimes it simply doesn't work. It's very cold right now. They think something is frozen and it's just not working.

All they can do is de-rig and leave before the Russians see them. We wanted to strike at the enemy's positions, but, unfortunately, sometimes it happens. The equipment does not work, he says. Technology does not stand still, and as we can see in this war, the technologies from the west are giving very good results.

The unit later did manage to fire three rockets after troubleshooting for several hours, delays that can be costly in a war where Ukraine is already badly outgunned.

Fred Pleitgen, CNN in Eastern Ukraine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

NEWTON: There are new worries that violence in the Middle East could spread. Next, why an attack in Damascus is just one of the latest reasons for concern.

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[03:30:00] NEWTON: There are growing fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict could turn into a regional war after the latest strikes in Syria and Iraq involving Iran, the U.S., and presumably Israel.

Now, Iran is already vowing to punish Israel for this missile strike in Syria that killed five members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard who were on a military advisory mission in Damascus. Israel is suspected of being behind that attack, but Israeli officials are not commenting.

In Iraq, meantime, Iranian-backed militias have claimed responsibility for an attack that injured Americans on the Al-Asad Airbase. U.S. President Joe Biden is, in the meantime pushing for Israel to consider and work toward a two state solution, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's most recent comments appear to shut that down.

CNN's Kevin Liptak gives us the details of their latest conversation.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: President Biden's phone conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Friday was the first time that the two men had spoken in nearly a month, and it did occur against the backdrop of these growing divisions between Biden and Netanyahu. They had been lingering for some time, but certainly are becoming more pronounced over this issue of what will happen in Gaza once the war there ends.

And President Biden is certainly a staunch supporter of an eventual Palestinian state, the two-state solution that has long underpinned American policy in the region. But a day ahead of the phone call, Prime Minister Netanyahu had become increasingly public in his rejection of that idea, saying that the imperative for Israeli security contradicts the eventuality of Palestinian sovereignty.

And so this phone call was an important moment for the two men to discuss this issue. And we are told by people familiar with the matter that it was a serious conversation and a detailed conversation. And in fact, President Biden emerged afterwards to say that he thought it was still possible for an eventual Palestinian state to emerge, even with Prime Minister Netanyahu still in office.

And he raised the idea of a demilitarized Palestinian state, a state without a military. This is an idea that's been discussed for decades. And, certainly, President Biden sounded intrigued by this as a possibility, so certainly still optimistic on that front.

But then on Saturday, we did hear from Prime Minister Netanyahu's office, who said that in his conversation with Biden, he reiterated his policy that after Hamas is destroyed, Israel must retain security control over Gaza. And they say that that's a requirement that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty.

So, certainly, the divides between these two men, certainly very apparent and ongoing. I can tell you that President Biden and many of his aides inside the White House are growing frustrated that Netanyahu appears to be more public in his rejections of American proposals and American ideas as he comes under increased political pressure inside Israel to secure the release of hostages and to be more clear about the strategy in Gaza. So, certainly, it does appear as if this will be an ongoing question between the two men as this conflict proceeds.

Kevin Liptak, CNN, traveling with the president in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

NEWTON: Joining me now is Aaron David Miller. He's a former U. S. State Department Middle East negotiator and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

And good to have you on hand because we definitely need you in moments like this. There is a lot going on. That is an understatement. I will get to Israel in a moment, but, first, let's think about Iran here. They've really been flexing. What do you make of Iran's actions?

[03:35:00]

And, importantly, what does it tell us about their motivation? What's their endgame in this new reality we all find ourselves in?

AARON DAVID MILLER, FORMER MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: I think the Iranians have two or three strategic goals. Number one, try to push the United States out of the Middle East, certainly out of Iraq and Syria. Iraq is critically important to them because, of course, of demography and geography. Second, to oppose where they can, anything remotely resembling a U.S.-dominated, quote/unquote, world order. Here they align, of course, with both China in many respects, and with Putin's Russia.

And the Israeli-Gaza crisis, I think, has afforded a critical opportunity for them to flex their muscles, show their influence. They're demonstrating in some of these missile launches a very sophisticated missile technology and to reach and through proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and, of course, the Houthis in the Red Sea.

The Iranians, frankly, in so many respects, appear to be the big winners so far in this Israeli-Gaza War because they're prepared to fight the Israelis and the Americans, not to the last Iranian, to the last Houthi, to the last Lebanese, and to the last Iraqi and Syrian. So far, they've been untouched.

NEWTON: And yet we do have Israel hitting back. Israel is not taking responsibility for the airstrike in Syria. We shouldn't expect it to. These assassinations are not actually new, but how risky are they in this environment?

MILLER: Well, I think as long as the Israeli-Gaza War goes on, you've got a pretext and a justification for the Iranians to use their proxies. I don't think we're on the cusp of a regional war. I could outline for you what I think a regional war would look like. The Middle East has never experienced one. We're not there yet.

But, again, there's always the possibility of a miscalculation, a misdirection, one party, including the United States, reading the situation incorrectly, makes a move that begins an escalatory ladder. So, I don't think -- in recent years, I've seen so many complexities, so many fires that appear to be burning in so many areas of this very troubled region.

NEWTON: Yes, it is hard to keep track of in any foreign affairs department at this hour. You know, Netanyahu, we get to him now, risked alienating nearly every international ally he has this week with his comments on the Palestinian state. Hours ago, he doubled down, tweeted, I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over all of the territory west of Jordan. And he says it here himself, right? This is contrary to a Palestinian state.

You know, I do want to mention here that while Biden was restrained in his comments, not the E.U., right? We want to go to now from the foreign affairs chief, from the E.U., Joseph Borrell. And he said, we believe that a two-state solution, Israeli and Palestinian, must be imposed from the outside to bring peace back, even if, and I insist, Israel reaffirms its refusal of the solution and to prevent it. They have gone so far as to create Hamas itself.

I mean, in those two phrases right there, in terms of the quotes, you cannot get to more opposite sides. Where is all this headed?

MILLER: Where's it all headed? I mean, again, you've got the centerpiece here is -- well, there are two realities. Number one, you have what is now a conflict between Israel and Hamas that shows no ends of abating. The basic goals of each side are mutually irreconcilable.

The Israelis in the wake of the terrorist surge of October 7th, want to destroy Hamas militarily and end sovereignty in Gaza. Hamas, at least the senior leadership in tunnels, as many as 400 miles worth of tunnels the Israelis are now discovering, is interested in surviving. They want ultimately to trade the 130-foot hostages that they have both dead and alive for an asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners and a cessation of hostilities. Right now, I see no way out of that particular conflict.

And as we talked before, Iran, I think, is benefiting from this regional escalation and through its proxies is creating the maximum amount of trouble, at least it can, while avoiding a direct confrontation with the United States.

And I think the balancing mechanism here is neither is Hezbollah or Iran, nor are the United States. And I would add as well to the list, although there are some who are arguing for preemption against Hezbollah in the north. I don't think the Israelis want a two-front war right now either.

[03:40:02]

NEWTON: Yes, and remind people that these conflicts actually can go on for years and years and years, and as you said, a cul-de-sac with no way out so far.

Aaron David Miller for us, thanks so much. I appreciate it.

MILLER: Paula, thanks for having me.

NEWTON: Up next for us, Muslim and Jewish communities in Canada see a rise in hate since the conflict began between Israel and Hamas. That story and much more, straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NEWTON: Jewish and Muslim communities alike are expressing concern about a rise in hate across Canada since the conflict between Israel and Hamas started. Police are guarding children going into one Montreal school after it was targeted twice by gunfire.

Meanwhile, members of the Muslim community say they are also experiencing hate and some of it worse than they've ever seen since 9/11. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NEWTON (voice over): A morning ritual, school drop-off at Yeshiva Gedola. Students hustle in and, as usual, Rabbi Menachem Karmel is meeting them at the door.

It's a typical morning in Montreal, right down to the snow-covered streets, except for this, police watching every move.

In November, Montreal Police say the school was targeted not once, but twice by gunfire. Students were not there at the time. There were no injuries, but also no arrests so far.

For Rabbi Karmel, an American, and the grandson of Holocaust survivors, the fact that it could happen here --

RABBI MENACHEM KARMEL, YESHIVA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL: It's scary, scary, made it so shocking to have such an act in such a community. It's almost like we're in a bubble here. The fact that as a religious school, very identifiably Jewish, that this becomes the go-to place to protest, to express your anger is so misconstrued, it's hurtful.

[03:45:08]

NEWTON: And police across Canada say it's far from an isolated incident. Last week, a Jewish-owned deli in Toronto was the target of an arson attack. No one was injured. No arrests have been made, but Toronto Police call it a tipping point.

PAULINE GRAY, STAFF SUPERINTENDENT, TORONTO POLICE: This is a criminal act. It is violent, it is targeted, it is organized.

Canada's prime minister has admitted there is newfound fear on Canadian streets.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: We're seeing right now a rise in anti-Semitism that is terrifying.

NEWTON: Canadian authorities say hate-inspired incidents have spiked since the Hamas attack in Israel, punctuated by tense protests across the country.

SAUL EMANUEL, PRESIDENT OF THE JEWISH COMMUNITY CONGRESS: Before you go to that tipping point, try and bring it back, try and pull it back.

NEWTON: Rabbi Saul Emanuel voices concerns not just as a parent with children at the targeted school, but a community leader looking for security and less impunity.

EMANUEL: It's become accepted that you can go after any Jewish target.

NEWTON: That real fear of being targeted simply based on your religion is one shared by many Muslims here as well, who have also reported an increase in hate-inspired incidents.

SAMER MAJZOUB, PRESIDENT, CANADIAN MUSLIM FORUM: It is much worse than the 9/11.

NEWTON: Samer Majzoub speaks to us in a Montreal mosque that was recently targeted with hateful graffiti. He says all the recent hate- inspired acts have frayed nerves in many communities.

MAJZOUB: I don't like to divide our city and our province and our country, you are from that community or this community. When we refuse hate, when we refuse violence, when we refuse intimidation, we refuse it against each and every individual.

NEWTON: That so cherished Canadian hallmark of tolerance has somehow fractured in this Montreal synagogue. They pray for peace in Israel, astounded by how that faraway war is affecting their everyday lives.

NATAN SCHECHER, FATHER: Our day schools, our synagogues have always been kind of sanctuary, sanctuary. And then I was getting calls from my friends in Israel saying, are you okay? I heard all these things happen. You're calling me from a war zone, asking me if I'm okay. It doesn't make any sense. But it's just a new reality.

NEWTON: A new reality testing the very fabric of Canadian communities in Montreal and beyond.

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NEWTON (on camera): And still ahead for us, as the lava cools, the question remains, is it safe to go home? We'll have the latest on volcanic volatility in Iceland.

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NEWTON: The Arctic blast we've been telling you about and the U.S. is expected to last through this weekend. The winter weather alerts are in effect from Florida to Montana and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast.

As for the snow, high pressure has driven out most of it for the bulk of the country. That's with the exception of some lingering snow along the Great Lakes. But what's already on the ground will stick around for a bit longer.

Now, there's word out of Iceland right now that the latest volcanic eruption there has ended. But that assessment is doing little to calm the nerves of people who flood their homes in the nation, often referred to as the land of fire and ice.

Michael Holmes has our report.

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MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): Days after the latest in a series of volcanic eruptions threatened the Icelandic fishing town of Grindavik, residents are still being kept away. Last weekend's red hot lava flow reached the outskirts of the 4,000-person town, setting three homes ablaze.

Fortunately, no one was harmed since residents had already evacuated for the second time since November. It's the fifth eruption on the Peninsula of Reykjanes since 2021.

KRISTIN MARIA BIRGISDOTTIR, GRINDAVIK RESIDENT: It was devastating. That's the word I can tell you. This is something that we had been expecting, but seeing it so close to the town was just devastating.

HOLMES: Kristin Maria says she was born and raised in Grindavik and hopes to give her children the same life. After all, she'd just bought a home there. But having been evacuated to Reykjavik since November, she says she wonders whether she and her neighbors will ever go back.

Although the latest eruption seems to have subsided, magma still flows underground, leaving the threat of cracks opening on the surface.

BIRGISDOTTIR: There is a huge uncertainty when we will go back because the area is really dangerous at the moment. And they just published a risk map and it's a really high risk of danger inside the town. So, that's one of the biggest questions we have. When do we go back? Can we go back? Will we ever go back?

HOLMES: Geologists are warning the town's residents there could be more cracks and soil collapses on the way. For now, construction workers have put up barriers to keep possible new lava flows from damaging more buildings.

Iceland's president says it's not clear when residents can return to the town.

GUDNI JOHANNESSON, ICELAND PRESIDENT: Right now, people cannot stay in Grindavik and it remains to be seen when residents can return and move valuables from their homes. We wait and see. We cannot control the forces of nature but we can control how we react.

We did our very best to defend the town itself. We built defensive structures and always and foremost of our minds is to protect people's lives and we will continue to do so. HOLMES: The president says the vital question is whether it's safe to live in Grindavik on a daily basis now that the Reykjanes Peninsula is volcanically active after 800 years of quiet.

[03:55:08]

The only thing both authorities and residents know for sure, the future of Grindavik and those who call it home remains uncertain.

Michael Holmes, CNN.

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NEWTON: The Baltimore Ravens have advanced to the AFC Championship game that's following a 34-10 victory over the Houston Texans. The team is now back in the conference title game for the first time since the 2012 season and will play the winner of some days AFC divisional matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.

Now, the San Francisco 49ers have indeed advanced to the NFC Championship game. They outlasted the Green Bay Packers and came away with a victory 24-21. I am told by a close family source that it was a thrilling game. They will now play the winner of tomorrow's matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions.

Meantime, remember that Bills game we were just telling you about? Well, they're going to be serving some interesting game day goodies during that divisional playoff game against Kansas City. So, newly inspired, of course, the food is, from pop star and newly minted Chiefs fan Taylor Swift. Okay, here we go.

In a nod to the her music, the Buffalo Bills culinary team will offer a triple-decker karma quesadilla, any takers folks, and bad blood waffle fries loaded with both city specialties, buffalo chicken, and Kansas City cattleman's barbecue pork, cattleman's pork. There we go.

Swift has been showing up regularly to support Kansas City and her presumed beau, Travis Kelce. It's unclear though whether Swift plans to attend Sunday night's game. I think many of us should just consult her concert schedule and see what her football schedule might be.

I'm Pauline Newton. I want to thank you for your company.

Kim Brunhuber picks it up from here.

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