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Biden: Israel Would Cross "Red Line" By Invading Rafah; Russia Making Nearly Three Times More Artillery Shells Than U.S. And Europe For Ukraine; Plane Passenger: "People Flew Through The Cabin". Aired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired March 11, 2024 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[11:31:25]

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: The Islamic holy month of Ramadan has begun. And with no ceasefire in place, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Israel will push forward with its military offensive into the southern Gaza City of Rafah. But U.S. officials tell CNN the Biden administration does not expect it to be "imminent."

More than one million displaced Palestinians are sheltering in Rafah right now. And over the weekend, President Biden warned that if Israeli forces entered there, it would be a "red line." And that drew a sharp rebuke from Netanyahu.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: His red line, but I'm never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical. So, there's no red line I'm going to cut off all weapons, so they don't have the Iron Dome to protect them. They don't have -- but there's red lines that if he crosses in the -- he cannot have 30,000 more Palestinians dead.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: Well, I don't know exactly what the president meant. But if he meant by that, then I'm pursuing private policies against the majority of the wishes of the majority of Israelis, and that this is hurting the interests of Israel. And he's wrong on both counts.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: And joining me now to discuss, the former Middle East negotiator at the State Department, Aaron David Miller. He's now a Carnegie Endowment Senior Fellow. Aaron, thanks very much for joining us. What do you make of this clear split that has developed between the prime minister and the president?

AARON DAVID MILLER, FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR: You know -- you know, Wolf, thanks for having me. I think the president is beginning to realize that he's not dealing with the old Benjamin Netanyahu. The risk-averse Benjamin Netanyahu took one step forward and step to the side and step back. He's now dealing with a risk-ready Benjamin Netanyahu. Not only on trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust due to testify, I think, this month, but presided over the worst terror attack in the history of the state of Israel. So, I think the prime minister is acting in a way that the administration believes is really undermining not only Biden's domestic support at home but American credibility in the region. So, we're entering a very fraught period.

That said, Wolf, I think neither man right now can afford an open and major and or sustained breach. That's the -- that's the line the president's going to have to navigate.

BLITZER: Israeli officials, as you know, Aaron, say a Ramadan military offensive by Israel in Rafah has not been ruled out. But it's not imminent. What do you think is happening here?

MILLER: I think the IDF is reluctant to do this. And it's not going to be done quickly. It's hard for me to believe, Wolf, that it would even be done during Ramadan.

I think the target for this is April. And the reality is Hamas is using tunnels, Wolf, and time. They're trading tunnels in time in hopes that pressure on Israel internally will build, and pressure from the United States will build.

So, we're entering a very difficult period. Hamas has absolutely no incentive right now, certainly, during the month of Ramadan, to come to any sort of deal, even eliminate deal on the hostages. They may even believe that courting an Israeli operation in Rafah, which would lead to a disastrous consequence for the 1.2 or three million Palestinians who are there in a very narrow and confined space would play to their advantage.

So, the only thing, Wolf, that I can see the escalating this is in fact, an Israeli-Hamas hostage deal. Just that doesn't have appear to be imminent or in the works right now.

[11:35:03]

BLITZER: How worried should people be out there about a collapse or a real structural move in worsening the U.S.-Israeli relationship right now? It seems this relationship is in big trouble.

MILLER: You know, I think it is. And as I mentioned, I think tensions are high. They may even be worse than the last time around. And you know that period well, Wolf, with George H.W. Bush and my former boss, James Baker, when the administration suspended housing loan guarantees because of the Israeli settlement activity.

Frankly, I think this is the worst situation because I think the president and his team are beginning to understand it. They haven't grasped it already that they have zero trust and or confidence, and Mr. Netanyahu appears to be making decisions that he may believe are beneficial for the people of Israel. But may -- as the president said, maybe hurting Israel's own interests. So, I think it's bad. At the same time, I continue to believe that if there's going to be any hope of de-escalating the situation in Gaza -- and the president needs this. He needs this because it is morally right. He needs this because it's politically right. He's going to have to find a way to figure out how to work with the current Israeli governed. Because without their assent, without their agreement, I don't see how you deescalate.

BLITZER: Aaron David Miller, as usual, thank you very much for that analysis.

MILLER: Thank you.

BLITZER: And there's more news we're following here in the CNN NEWSROOM. New this morning. NATO officially welcomed Sweden to the fold.

I'll speak to the U.S. ambassador to NATO about the significance of this. That's coming up. Stay with us. You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

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[11:41:22]

BLITZER: New this morning. A CNN exclusive about the war in Ukraine. Russia is on track to produce about three million artillery munitions per year. A senior European intelligence official says that's nearly three times as much as the U.S. and Europe have the capacity to send to Kyiv. And it gives Russia a key advantage as this war in Ukraine enters its third year.

CNN National Security and Politics Correspondent Natasha Bertrand is over at the Pentagon for us today. Natasha, tell our viewers what you've learned.

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY & POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, Russia has essentially shifted its entire economy to a war footing. And its war machine is in full gear here in a way that the U.S. and the West writ-large really cannot compete with at this moment. Now, we are told, according to senior NATO as well as senior European intelligence officials, that Russia is currently on track to produce about three million artillery shells per year.

That is almost -- that is more than double, I should say, the amount that the U.S. and the West can produce collectively. And that is really important here because this war, according to officials that we spoke to, really could be largely won or lost on the provision of this artillery ammunition which has been so key throughout the course of this war. Now, Russia, just to put this in perspective here, can produce about 250,000 artillery munitions per month. The U.S. right now is on track to ramp up its production to about 100,000 artillery munitions per month by the end of 2025. So clearly, a very significant gap there.

And it's important because, of course, Russia is a managed economy controlled by an autocrat. They can ramp up their production much, much faster than the U.S. and the West have been able to. But one really key critical component here, of course, is going to be whether the U.S. can even get this supplemental funding from Congress passed for Ukraine that is going to allow the U.S. to ramp up its own production so that it can eventually provide Ukraine with the munitions that it needs. According to one source that we spoke to, "It's not going well at the moment for Ukraine, but it all depends if aid restarts and comes quick, all is not lost." Wolf.

BLITZER: Natasha, based on your reporting, how sustainable is this for Russia to keep producing at this huge level?

BERTRAND: Well, Russia has essentially made its defense sector the biggest sector of its economy. And a senior NATO official that we spoke to said that that is not necessarily a sophisticated approach right to its economy, but it is not altogether unsustainable. They can probably manage to keep their economy up and running in this way for at least the next 18 months, according to a NATO official that we spoke to.

Now, the weapons and the equipment that they're producing, they are not great weapons and equipment. They are not very sophisticated. And NATO standard and Western standard ammunition and weaponry is going to be a lot higher quality than what the Russians are able to produce. But still for the next 18 months if Russia is able to out-produce the West on these really key equipment and ammunition, and that is going to be a big problem for the Ukrainians as they try to hold out and of course, repel Russia's advances and try to take back a lot of the territory that they have lost since 2022, Wolf.

BLITZER: Natasha Bertrand at the Pentagon for us. Natasha, thank you very, very much. Other news we're following. The director of the best documentary winner at the Oscars tore into Russia during one of the most powerful speeches of the night. Here's Mstyslav Chernov accepting the award for "20 Days in Mariupol." Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MSTYSLAV CHERNOV, DIRECTOR, 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL: I wish to be able to exchange this to Russia never attacking Ukraine, never occupying our cities. I wish to give all their recognition to Russia not killing tens of thousands of my fellow Ukrainians.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[11:45:18]

BLITZER: The documentary follows a team of Ukrainian journalists trapped in the besieged port city at the start of the Russian invasion back in 2022. It's the first Ukrainian film to win an Oscar.

More news still to come here on CNN. Dozens of people are hurt after passengers say they felt a mid-air drop, sending people flying through the cabin. What we know? Stay with us.

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[11:50:07]

BLITZER: People flew through the cabin. That's how one passenger described what happened when a flight from Sydney, Australia to Auckland, New Zealand experienced a sudden massive jolt in mid-air. The Chilean Airline LATAM is calling it a technical event but hasn't given any more details. At least 50 people were hurt.

Our Aviation Correspondent Pete Muntean is with me here in the CNN NEWSROOM. Pete, what more do we know about what happened here?

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Well, passengers are describing this sudden jolt. And it sounds a lot like turbulence. But the interesting thing here is that the airline, LATAM, is calling this a technical event. And I want to read you the statement from the airline here. It says, that was a technical event during the flight which cause a strong movement.

Technical event leaves a lot of room for interpretation here. And investigators will want to know did something happened in the cockpit or was this an issue potentially with the flight controls. Was this an issue with an autopilot? This was a Boeing 730 -- 787, not a 737 Max like the Alaska Airlines door plug blowout two months ago. Even still though, Boeing says it's working to gather more information about this incident and is standing by to support an investigation.

This plane was on its way to Santiago, Chile. Latest data from FlightAware shows the plane remains in Auckland. And that's where first responders treated about 50 people in total who were on board this flight. 12 taken to the hospital. One patient in serious condition.

Technical event or not, passengers are describing this like a severe turbulence incident. And one telling Radio New Zealand blood was on the ceiling and people flew and broke the ceiling of the plane. Turbulence can be caused by weather such as up and down drafts of thunderstorms, sometimes wind shear, where there are two rows or currents of air moving at different speeds. But turbulence can also be triggered by no weather phenomena at all, called clear air turbulence, meaning it can be invisible to pilots.

Airlines have gotten a lot better at forecasting turbulence. But the National Transportation Safety Board says that turbulence is still the number one cause of injuries on commercial flights. All the more reason here, Wolf, to keep your seatbelt on even if the seatbelt sign is off. We know that these incidents can go rise so quickly.

BLITZER: Yes, good advice for everybody who's flying. Keep the seatbelt on all the time, even if it says -- the seatbelt sign is off.

MUNTEAN: That's right.

BLITZER: I'm listening to you. Pete Muntean, thank you very, very much.

MUNTEAN: Heads up. BLITZER: I want to return now to one of our top stories. A CNN -- a CNN exclusive about the war in Ukraine. Russia is on track to produce about three million artillery munitions per year. Right now, I want to bring in Ambassador Julianne Smith. She's the United States Permanent Representative to NATO.

Ambassador, thank you so much for all your work. Thanks so much for joining us. Let me get your reaction to our reporting on Russia's significant artillery production capability as compared to what the NATO allies, including the United States, can offer Ukraine right now. How concerned are you by this development?

AMBASSADOR JULIANNE SMITH, U.S. PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE TO NATO: Well, NATO allies have closely been monitoring Russian production to determine exactly what levels of ammunition they can throw at this unprovoked war of aggression inside Ukraine. We've seen the Russians desperately looking for munitions in faraway places. As you well know, the Russians have reached out to the North Koreans. They're relying on the Iranians for additional capabilities.

Here inside the NATO alliance, we're focused on increasing our production. Production in Europe is up about 40 percent. So, there's some good news there. But we want to move faster. And at this summer's Summit in Washington, D.C., I think you're going to see some new announcements on this front, where allies have additional ideas of how we can accelerate munitions production and the production of other capabilities to get those capabilities in the hands of our friends in Ukraine.

BLITZER: And hopefully, we'll continue this conversation when you're here in Washington for the NATO Summit. Earlier this morning, we watched NATO raise the Swedish flag to welcome that country to its rank. What role will Sweden have now in the NATO alliance amid the ongoing threats from Russia?

SMITH: Well, it was a remarkable morning here at NATO H.Q. We saw that flag go up. And all of the allies were out watching that moment. We were joined by the Prime Minister of Sweden as well as a whole array of official -- Swedish government officials.

And there was a line in the prime minister's remarks that I thought was just perfect for the moment. He said that Sweden is ready to teach and learn. And you know, at the end of the day, that's what the NATO alliance is all about. We're looking forward to learning from our friends in Sweden about how they have taken on security challenges for hundreds of years on their own.

[11:55:00]

And they're also ready to learn from us and bring all sorts of expertise. They're an incredibly capable ally. By the way, they spend two percent of GDP on defense. They have an incredibly capable military.

And they'll bring all sorts of important lessons to us on everything from cyber security to resilience issues, how to protect critical infrastructure. And of course, we're interested in hearing from them about their insights on Russia as well, given where they sit up there close to our Baltic Allies. So, this is just a historic day inside NATO headquarters. And the mood here is one of just tremendous excitement.

BLITZER: Yes, Sweden will be a critically important new member of NATO to be sure. New U.S. aid to Ukraine, as you know, Ambassador is stalled in Congress -- still stalled in Congress. How much alarm is this causing within the NATO alliance?

SMITH: Well, the United States from day one has played a very critical leadership role. We are not the only ally providing assistance to Ukraine. Every single member of the alliance is helping our friends in Ukraine with economic, humanitarian, and security assistance.

But what the U.S. has been able to do in providing leadership through this Ramstein group where we convene 50 countries every month to look at what more we can provide to the Ukrainians. And what we've done with critical military assistance has been indispensable. The Ukrainians are the first to mention that they're very interested in seeing that supplemental go through.

We have to ensure that Russia doesn't succeed in Ukraine. As we've learned in the past, if you don't stop dictators, they keep going. And so, our goal right now is to get that supplemental finalized, to get some additional assistance in the hands of our friends in Ukraine, and get the Russians out of Ukraine as soon as possible.

BLITZER: Ambassador Julianne Smith, thank you so much for all your important work. Thanks very much for joining us. And to our viewers, thanks very much for joining me here in the CNN NEWSROOM.

I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. I'll be back later tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern in "THE SITUATION ROOM." Right here tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. Stay with CNN. "INSIDE POLITICS" starts right after a short break.

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