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CNN International: Voting Underway In UK General Election, With Polls Set To Close At 10PM UK Time; Biden Fights For Political Future After Debate Debacle; Biden, Netanyahu Speak On Phone Amid Progress On Ceasefire Deal; Beryl Slams Jamaica, Tracking Across Caribbean Sea; U.S. Troops Overseas Celebrate American Independence Day. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired July 04, 2024 - 15:00   ET



JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: It is 8:00 p.m. in London, where it is election day, 9:00 p.m. in Berlin, 3:00 p.m. here in New York.

I'm Jim Sciutto. Thanks so much for joining me today on CNN NEWSROOM. And let's get right to the news.

We begin in the UK where the general election is well underway. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, surprise the country and much of his party by calling these snap elections months earlier than necessary. Voters have two hours left cast their ballots to decide their next leader.

The prime minister voted earlier in his Yorkshire constituency in the north of England. Labour leader Keir Starmer cast his ballot in London.

CNN's Nada Bashir is at a polling station in London for us.

Nada, break down for us exactly how this election works. And crucially, when will we begin to find out the results?

NADA BASHIR, CNN REPORTER: Well, look, Jim, there are 650 seats in the House of Commons up for grabs in each party competing in this year's election will be looking to secure a majority, that is crucial 326-plus figure. Now, of course, at those voting today, casting their ballots will be voting for their local member of parliament. And it's then, of course, the party's when we count this that it'll see whether or not they have secured that majority the figures.

They're not voting directly for the prime minister, but rather for the parties here, a little different from the United States. But, of course, voting has been taking place all day. There are tens of thousands of polarization just like this one behind me up and down the country. Polls opened at 7:00 a.m. They are about to close and just under two hours and it's at that point that the vote counting begins. And it's a process that will continue through the night.

Now, we will see early exit polls coming in overnight, giving us a steer or where exactly the country is heading, where perhaps those votes are leaning. But, of course, the actual results will not be announced until Friday morning. Many people will be staying up overnight. Many of my colleagues will certainly be staying up overnight to keep an eye on those votes coming in constituency by constituency until there is a clear majority announced.

And, of course, this is a huge potentially game-changing election. We can't get into the policy details because there's reporting restrictions are still in place until polls close at 10:00 p.m. but there are huge amount of local, national, and international issues at stake here. And, of course, this is the first time that Brits have gone to the poll since 2019 when Boris Johnson was elected prime minister. We've seen numerous conservative party leader since then. We haven't seen a general election.

So this is a significant moment, of course, for the British public to express their views to cast their ballot just under two hours left to go. And, of course, whoever does win this election is also an election year in the United States. There'll be crucial partners. This is certainly a significant, potentially game-changing moments for the United Kingdom -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, no question. Not unlike France, surprise choices to call those elections and conceivably big changes for the countries involved.

Nada Bashir, thanks so much.

Please do be sure to watch CNN special coverage of the UK election anchored by Isa Soares and Richard Quest that begins, just before 10:00 p.m. in London, just before 5:00 in the afternoon here on the East Coast in the U.S.

And back here in the U.S. is, of course, the Fourth of July. Short time for now, President Joe Biden will host soldiers, veterans, military families, and caregivers at the White House for a barbecue and celebration, perhaps a reprieve from what the president has privately acknowledged as a crucial time for him to restore public faith and his candidacy, in his presidency after his debate performance one week ago.

And two radio interviews released this morning, the president reaffirmed he is in the race and can do the job.


HOST: Is there any reason for the American people to be concerned?


HOST: Yeah.

BIDEN: I had a bad debate. But 90 minutes on stage does not erase what I've done for three-and-a-half years. I'm proud of the record, and we just got to keep moving.

(END AUDIO CLIP) SCIUTTO: Biden wants to keep moving, but the private concern and the private conversation around changing course, in fact, changing candidates has not quieted, could, in fact, be getting louder.


Isaac Dovere covers the campaign. He joins me now.

Isaac, you know, speaking last night to Van Jones among others, and he made the point that the public messaging you're hearing from the White House, the president, his advocates is quite different from the private conversation. You did have public comments support from those governors who met with him at the White House yesterday.

What is actually happening inside? You have new reporting about Biden's message in that meeting.


First of all, I think that's right that the private feelings a lot different from the public statements of support. Many of those governors who were part of a meeting that was meant to show support for the president, walked out of it and while they were in belted on, that they were still concerned.

And one of the things that had them concerns or new reporting that has that the president himself said that he would need to not do any public events after 8:00 p.m., that he needed to curtail his schedule and he needed to get more sleep and that he knew that. That is not something that Democratic governors who went to the White House the waiting to hear from a president that he was up to the campaign ahead, were too pleased to hear.

And that is now going to be another thing that's on many minds on certainly those minds of those Democratic governors. I can tell you as we tried to figure out what is ahead for President Biden.

SCIUTTO: And it's not a great headline for President Biden, frankly, in the midst of these public questions. You have images like this. This is covered "The Economist" today, calling for Biden to withdraw, a harsh depiction to say the least.

Is there any sense of how he and I imagine crucially his family is weathering this here? Because his family quite influential it seems on his decision whether to go forward or not to date. It seems as family is pushing him to stay.

DOVERE: Yeah, his family has been supportive of him staying in the race, including his wife, Jill Biden, and we have seen that continue to be over the course of the week. Look, I had a piece earlier this week that got into, as I read it, then defiance has become a much part of the Biden's psychology as Delaware. He has this sense of himself as a guy who has been written off over and over again and who has showed that he's been underestimated and he's proved everybody wrong.

It happened in his campaigns. It happened in his presidency with its legislative agenda. That's how he sees himself, and that's how he wants to see this moment. But Democratic operative saying to me things like they're trying to say that this is like every other moment they faced not realizing it's a totally different moment.

We will see how this plays out, but there are, I would say, more people than you would guess from the public comments, who are ready to say that Joe Biden should go step aside, but also more people who are telling me that they are still ready to weather this out and see if they can do it, in part, that's because they are thinking about what kind of chaos would be set off were he to step aside and just have crazy that is.

Now, I believe were 123 days well, the election and just about six weeks until the Democratic convention.

SCIUTTO: Listen, also just couple of months before you have some early voting in states. And frankly, I think I've heard the same contrast and views some Democratic lawmakers have spoken with. So, we got to weather this, don't panic. Others, well, I think are panicking.

Appreciate having you on, Isaac. Thanks so much.

DOVERE: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Well, even as questions swirl about Biden's ability to do the job, the work of the presidency continues. The president today spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the telephone as Israel and Hamas appear to be making real progress on a framework hostage release and ceasefire deal.

White House reporter Priscilla Alvarez is here with me for an update.

Priscilla, you and I -- we've talked about this at multiple times over the last several months when it did appear that the sides were getting closer to a deal. Are they really close this time, right? I mean, I suppose the question is, is it different? And does the White House believed there on the cusp of something here?

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I don't think that we can say definitively, just yet, but we did hear from a senior administration official moments ago who said, this doesn't mean a deal is within reach of days, but they feel pretty good about it, because now, they have this response from Hamas. Of course, remember, the president had laid out the framework why Israel to try to reach a hostage deal. Now, we have this response by Hamas.

So, at the very least, there seems to be some momentum behind this and some active discussion. We're now being told, too, that the conversation that the president had with the Israeli prime minister lasted about 30 minutes and the focus of it was the details of this framework and of this deal.

So, clearly, there is that pressure building up. I mean, oftentimes, when I talk to us officials about when the president gets on the phone with any foreign leader. It really is at critical junctures. So you can consider this to be one of those. The president jumping on the phone with the Israeli prime minister

earlier today.


Now according to the White House readout of that call, it said that the leaders discussed the recent response receive from Hamas, the president welcomed the prime ministers decision to authorize his negotiators to engage with U.S. Qatari and Egyptian mediators in an effort to close the deal -- to close out the deal, of course, a meeting will happen later this month.

So, clearly, this has continued to be a top priority for the White House, to see the release of hostages, to try to reach a temporary ceasefire and then a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

So, all of this is building to that. Of course, every time you talk about this with us officials, they'll always say, you don't know who's going to actually happen, if an agreement is going to happen until the very last minute.

This is another one of those moments, but at this point, everyone is talking the responses there. And so, they at least be a little more confident that they can try to reach some framework agreement.

SCIUTTO: Biden, of course, is pointed to his foreign policy record as evidenced of his continuing ability to do the job. Is the White House, for instance, in that call with Netanyahu, are they pushing for Israel to make this deal?

ALVAREZ: Oh, they certainly are. The president wants to see Israel come through on this, just as much as they place a lot of pressure on Hamas to do the same. Of course, foreign policy has consumed a lot of the president's time over the course of his administration, this being a very clear example of that.

It's something that when he did go into to the CNN presidential debate, he did want to talk about because its also way that the president has tried to lay out the stakes of the U.S. election and trying to maintain us leadership around the world. And the president has often said in fundraisers that world leaders have approached him and said that they want him to stay a second term, that they're nervous about what happens if Donald Trump were to win the election.

So, this is something that he is also used on the campaign trail. Of course, Jim, next week is the NATO summit here in Washington, D.C. It will be another opportunity for the president to talk to foreign leaders about this deal. But two also try to inject some sort of common but its especially given all the turmoil happening here at home with the presidents own reelection bid.

SCIUTTO: And the possibility of another press conference, right, with a chance to answer some of those questions.

Priscilla Alvarez, at the White House, thanks so much. Watching Biden's bad week, of course, is the Trump campaign. Donald

Trump himself, he has been uncharacteristically quiet in the wake of the debate performance, but we've got a sense of his headspace today in a clip released by "The Daily Beast" published by Trump as well, on his social media. Have a listen.


DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How did I do with the debate the other night? We kicked that old, broken-down pile of crap.


SCIUTTO: Broken down pile of crap, that is a former president, current candidate for president describing the current president in those terms. He added his two cents on Kamala Harris as well, saying of the sitting vice president of the United States of America on July 4th, she's so F-ing bad. I took out the real word he used there.

Let's bring in two campaign experts to discuss, Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton, Democratic strategist and former Biden aide, Meghan Hays.

Shermichael, I mean, I'm going to start -- before I get to Biden's age questions, here you have there, again, a demonstration of how Donald Trump talks, how he describes people, the kind of language he uses, the attitude he has. Is that the candidate that the Republican Party still wants? Is that the president that they want to return to the White House?

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, the fact that the president, former president is more disciplined than he usually would be, Jim, is the candidate that Republicans want. I'll reminisce about --

SCIUTTO: That discipline, what we just heard?

SINGLETON: Oh, absolutely, because it was something that was caught on background. This wasn't something that he said at a rally or to reporters. And so I would preference that then him going before thousands of people and saying the exact same thing. And I'll tell you why, from the campaign's perspective, while the president is in the middle of a crisis that doesn't appear to be slowing down at least at this point, the campaign is spending their time raising more money, attracting new small-dollar donations, they're focusing on building up campaign operations even further in some of the battle ground states where you have seen, I think 3 or 4 percent increase in least several of them towards the former president.

And so I think from that perspective, Jim, if I'm stepping back here trying to be as objective as possible, I think they are doing the right thing.

Now, now look to answer your question about the language of the former president, Jim, you know, people talk like that. What he said about the vice president, there's a reason a lot of people don't want President Biden to step out because they're kind of worried that the vice president might not be able to take this thing across the finish line for Democrats.

And so maybe they're using different language to describe what they think are some of her political weaknesses. But there is some validity into what the foreign president said.

SCIUTTO: Just so F-ing bad. I mean --

SINGLETON: It's hard.

SCIUTTO: I mean, the question is that do you want the leader of the free world to speak that way, an act that way?


But again, it's a continuing conversation.

Meghan, are some of the Democratic Party political strategies, even outside the Democratic Party underestimating Kamala Harris, if the president were to make the decision to step aside?

MEGHAN HAYS, CNN POLITICAL COMENTATOR: Yeah, absolutely. You don't get to be the vice president by being a bum on the street like this. She has a very fair record. She was the prosecutor. She was a U.S. senator. All things she was elected to, she was elected to be the vice president with the president in 2020, where they beat Donald Trump.

I mean, it's abhorrent that he would use this kind of language describing anyone, especially women, especially a Black woman, who is the sitting vice president. So I mean, that's -- that's fine that people might not think she's great, but you don't see anyone who is at the stature of the former vice president that is using this language publicly. And that's great that he didn't think that he was going out.

But Donald Trump is not an idiot. He knows everyone has phones. He knows what he is saying out to people is going to get out. He likes to be incendiary and use divisive language.

It's just -- it's just really I think its just really more divisive language and not uncharacteristic.

SCIUTTO: And we should note, Trump posted that on social media. So clearly --

HAYS: There you have it.

SCIUTTO: -- he's fine with having it out there.

And by the way, I know, Shermichael, you don't support that kind of like -- I know that. I mean, listen, it's the choice that is before American voters, right? Do they consider Biden's frailty, the bigger issue or Trump's -- well, a long list of things, not just the way he talks but criminal conviction and the various indictment, et cetera. If I were inside Biden's office right now, I would guess that you've

got the ABC interview tomorrow. You have this deal possibly coming together with Israel and Hamas, and you have the NATO summit next week that they hope that the collection of those things changes the storing shows a president in charge.

Shermichael and then to you, Meghan, do you believe that the collection of those things if the president performs well, does begin to change the story or is the hole too deep?

SINGLETON: No, I think it's possibly, look, Meghan, and I have text about this for the past several days now. I'm not of the mindset that some of these individuals, whether its donors, a lawmakers, should attempt to usurp what most Democratic voters actually want.

Harry Enten, I believe a day or two ago showcase a poll where a super majority of Democratic voters, and I'm not a Democrat, they're saying they still want President Biden. And so, I'm -- I don't like this idea, Jim, of this elite class of people trying to usurp the will of the voters.

And I felt the same way with Trump when a lot of Republicans say, we've got to figure out a way to get rid of this guy. My position then was, well, that's not what the Republican voters want, and I'm going to maintain that same up position as it pertains to President Biden.

You got to give the guy an opportunity. He's older. They got to get him out there more, and let's see what happens, Jim, over the next week or two. But there's something that really bothers me about these guys and these smoky rooms trying to decide what they think should be in the best interest of the Democratic Party, let along the entire nation when voters are saying this is the guy who we support.

SCIUTTO: Well, at the end of the day, its that man we just showed on the screen. It's his decisions, president's decision where he steps in or out.

But, Meghan, yes, Democrats elected Trump or sorry, chose Biden as their nominee in the primaries. But CNN's polling and other polling has shown that three-quarters of voters would prefer another candidate, including many Democrats, right? I mean, they still prefer Biden over Trump, Democrat, but that many of those voters what actually like another choice.

I mean, what should be the driving force?

HAYS: Sure, absolutely, but that's not the option were at right now because we've already had all of our primary. So even if they did want somebody else, what is the process to get that person? So that is where there's a little bit of a rub here and that's a little bit confusing for people. There wasn't -- people called from a step-down, but they didn't ask the next two, three and four questions of who, how, and when that's going to happen? And that's the problem, right?

So I think that the president, the next week is where he will thrive. He's going to be on the campaign trail. He is at NATO foreign policy has always been his strong suit. He loves meeting with these foreign leaders and love having those when we get to host it here in Washington, D.C., which will be great. He'll do a press conference.

So, this is where, you know, Joe Biden likes to govern. He is -- he -- that is where he spent most of his career is governing. So I think that this is a good opportunity in the next week to show voters that he's up for the job.

SINGLETON: And, Jim --

SCIUTTO: Go ahead.

SINGLETON: Jim, just really quickly, I just wanted to say Democrats chose President Biden. Republicans have chosen former President Donald Trump. Both of those men, they have to get out there. They have the campaign. There's another debate in September. That's the matchup, whether we like it or not, that the most of the American voting electorate have chosen.

And those guys need to go head-to-head against each other and allow voters to decide, Jim, what direction they want to go, but don't replace the guy because you're concerned. Give him an opportunity.

SCIUTTO: Shermichael, Meghan, thanks so much. Happy 4th, coming in on the holiday.


SCIUTTO: Still ahead, more on Donald Trump's unusually quiet week, except for that clip we just played. We're going to tell you what his campaign is doing to prepare for all potential November scenarios.



SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

Chaos is our friend, quote. That is the view from a person close to Trump as he and the campaign steps back, lets debate around Biden play out. But inside the Trump campaign, preparations are underway for the possibility of a new nominee at the top of the Democratic ticket.

CNN's Alayna Treene who covers the campaign. She joins us now.

Alayna, what kind of preparations exactly?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Well, it's interesting, Jim, because let me start here, I'll start with earlier this week. It's been interesting talking to the Trump's campaign for the last several days because over the weekend, they didn't really actually anticipate how real the possibility that Joe Biden could ultimately step aside, how real that concern was within the Democratic Party. When I talked to a number of Donald Trumps senior advisors, as well as people close to the former president, they really thought that this was going to blow over days after the debate. And Monday, I was getting calls from all different corners of Trump world of them panicking on their own about what do you think is going to happen? Is he going to drop out? Who would replace him?

So they are very much watching all of this unfold with the rest of America. Now for, as, for preparations, they're biding their time right now. When I talk to them, they say, look, we actually want to see how this shakes out before we begin, you know, launching attacks on a number of different candidates, we want to see what happens with Joe Biden.

But it's interesting because if you'll remember, Jim, months ago, Donald Trump was saying that he didn't think Joe Biden would make it to the Democratic National Convention in August, that he was ultimately going to be forced out by his own party.

Now that it's becoming a much more real possibility. Many people within Trump's campaign actually think Joe Biden would continue to be the best candidate for them to be in part of that is because they have spent a series of months over a year building out their entire general election campaign infrastructure, massive data operation, ad spending, all of that focus singularly ongoing after Joe Biden. And so, they recognize some of the issues they're going to face if it is ultimately another candidate.

Now, I did talk with one Trump senior adviser who said that the RNC has had books. They described them as books of opposition research. They called it rolling books that they've been gathering opposition on a number of top Democrats, including people like a governor, Gretchen Whitmer, Governor Gavin Newsom.

A series of top people, Senator Mark Kelly is another one. They brought up that they think who are always running for something as one of them put it, that they continue to have this book of research on all of these people.

However, again, they still do believe that perhaps Joe Biden is going to be the candidate that would be easier for Trump to beat. So that's really where a lot of this comes down to.

I will also say that on the other hand, there are also people in Trumps circle who continue to try to defend the former president and say, look, this election is going to be one on the issues. The same core issues that they are running on now, which are immigration crime, and the economy where Trump polls better than Joe Biden. They believed that he will continue to dominate those issues as they look ahead to November, regardless of who is at the top of the Democratic ticket.

But I really can't stress enough how much uncertainty there is within Trump world. They really do not know what is going to happen and what it means for their campaign -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, it helps explain that sense that they prefer Democrats stick with Biden.

Alayna Treene, thanks so much. Well, despite the questions about whether Biden should step aside before the November election, First Lady Jill Biden continues to be his fiercest political supporter. This as Mrs. Biden faces mounting criticism over her role in shielding her husband for the public in the midst of these questions.

CNN's Sunlen Serfaty reports.


JILL BIDEN, U.S. FIRST LADY: Joe, you did such a great job.

SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): At the most critical moment of President Joe Biden's political career, it is Jill Biden who is assuming the mantle to save him.

JILL BIDEN: You answered every question. You knew all the facts.

SERFATY: The first lady is all in, a source tells CNN, saying that she's still committed to her husband remaining in the 2024 race.

JILL BIDEN: I love him from the start. I saw him then the same character that I see in him today.

SERFATY: In the sixth day since the debate, her flurry of campaign events and OUTFRONT public statements has signaled that resolved.

JILL BIDEN: There is no one that I would rather have sitting in the Oval Office right now, then my husband.

SERFATY: Waging a public display of damage control, telling fundraisers that her husband said of the debate, I don't know what happened. I didn't feel that great.

In attempts at narrative setting, telling "Vogue" they will not let those 90 minutes to find the four years he's been president. We will continue to fight.

This is a role Jill Biden has had for nearly five decades.

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My name is Joe Biden and I'm Jill Biden's husband.

SERFATY: As the president's chief confidant, staunchest advocate, and fiercest defender.

After nearly 50 years of marriage, all in the political arena where they have been battle tested together.

KATE ANDERSON BROWER, AUTHOR, "FIRST WOMEN": She does not want to give up this position and she doesn't want her husband to give it up and I think it says a lot about her belief in him, that she -- that she was the first person we heard from.

SERFATY: But that outsized influence in this crisis is being scrutinized as questions over President Biden's fitness for office are mounting, some are pointing a finger at the first lady.

A Texas Republican musing, "Who is the commander in chief?" with a video of the Bidens hand in hand after the debate.

Another Republican member of Congress accusing Jill Biden and the campaign of elder abuse.

And a "Wall Street Journal" opinion article says Jill Biden should ask herself whether her admirable loyalty to her husband will serve the best interests of our country, adding that fate has given Mrs. Biden the power to shape history, may she use it wisely.

Presidential historians drawing comparisons to past first ladies, protecting the legacy of their husbands around sensitive issues.

ANITA MCBRIDE, AUTHOR, "REMEMBER THE FIRST LADIES": There were allegations or rumors of, you know, President Reagan's condition or some signs of cognitive difficulty or perhaps, you know, early dementia. She dismissed that. And again, was focused on his legacy, what he could contribute in his presidency.

SERFATY: The White House says that is not what is happening here.

Asked if the first lady is covering up a medical condition of the president's, the first lady's communications director tells CNN: "No. An emphatic no."


SCIUTTO: Coming up next, Hurricane Beryl slamming Jamaica with month's worth of rain in just a few hours. We're tracking the storm as it barrels toward the Yucatan peninsula.



SCIUTTO: Hurricane Beryl has now killed at least nine people across the Caribbean and is now pulling away from the Cayman Islands.

While the storm has weakened to a category two hurricane, Jamaica is still reeling from its impact. Here you can see some of the flooding and damage unleashed on the island, and they 12 hours of heavy rain and strong winds. Just 24 hours, Kingston, capital of Jamaica, received more than double the amount of rain it typically gets during the whole month of July.

CNN's Rafael Romo is in Kingston with the latest.

Rafael, what's the damage look like in the wake of this?

RAFAEL ROMO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, there's plenty of damage, Jim. Earlier, we went to different parts of the island to take a look for ourselves and I can tell you that, yes, the damages there most definitely, we have seen downed power lines, and we've also seen a lot of downed trees and other damage. The prime minister here saying that there's also a damage to the coastal infrastructure.

But in very general terms, and this is also something that prime minister said, Jamaica as a nation is -- has had a collective sigh of relief because its going to been much, much worse. In addition to the amount of rain that you were mentioning at the beginning there, I can also tell you that the winds from a period of 12 hours, there were wins over 50 miles an hour from 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday until 1:00 a.m. on Thursday morning and some of those wins were gusting at 80 miles an hour.

But we went to a village earlier today where we talked to some of the people who have lost their livelihoods.


Still, they have hope about the future and also say that there's a lesson here that we all need to learn.

Let's take a listen.


TAISENT CHIN, SMALL BUSINESS OWNER: Dawn, watch, what is it? I said, it's category one hour, because can be category one, and then in a blink of an eye, goes to a category five. So you're after all, is be prepared for any disaster. We have life, that's the most important thing, and I mean, it's going to be expensive to read about everything. But in time, it will be done.


ROMO: And, Jim, Mexico -- is now on its way to Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, some tourist destinations there, including Cancun, are possibly in its path. After that, it goes into the Gulf of Mexico and it's also a thread, four parts of Texas where theyre getting ready for a possible arrival.

Jim, back to you.

SCIUTTO: Rafael Romo, thanks so much.

So where exactly as Beryl headed next and when?

CNN meteorologist Chad Myers tracking the storm from Atlanta.

So, where's it all headed, when, and how big will it be?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: The center of the storm is likely very close or just south of Cozumel, which is north, obviously there of Tulum, which I think really will be the, the main ground zero for this.

We have to remember that this storm still has a very large surge in its going to hit a very perpendicular object. It just grazed through Jamaica, would surge, but south St. Elizabeth, the area around Treasure Beach, they got hit very, very hard, just almost impossible to get there at this point in Jamaica.

This storm is still only now a category two, but it was a major hurricane for four days and six hours, category three or higher for more than four days in June, and then into July. But holy cow, we expect this in August, September, not June, but the water is as warm as it is in June.

Foot on the gas, the entire time, now we have some sheers. So putting on the brakes just a little bit likely not going to reenter densify now that its lost a little bit of its power and its kind of getting a little bit of that mixed up look now, at least at this point in time. There will be waves, there will be significant rip currents all through the Gulf of Mexico on this very busy weekend, not just Texas, but all the way to Florida, there'll be a lot of rain across parts of the Yucatan. Some spots could pick up ten inches of rain.

The Yucatan takes rain very, very well. It's fairly flat, but the ground is course. There are some note days where there's water goes into big holes in the ground and the water goes into the underground caverns.

But where does it go after that is the big question and tell you, I don't just know yet because as you look at the size of the cone, as we get now, five days away, it could be from Central Texas all the way down, even toward Mexico. Its part of this high pressure that's either going to push it down, keep it down there, or its going to slide off to the east and move away.

And if it moves away, these lines here, this is the European model and number of scenarios on the same model. A few of them are off to the right, but you look for where they're packed together and they are packed together making landfall. Very close to where the first tropical system made landfall in a place that already it has a lot of water on the ground. We're going to have to watch for flooding, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, that's a lot of potential outcomes there, looking at that model there. And I will say on rip currents, it's great advice. Watch out for them. I've been caught with them before, dangerous.

Chad Myers, happy Fourth.

MYERS: You, too.

SCIUTTO: And coming up, the FBI warning on this Fourth of July of the increased risk of mass shootings.

We'll be right back.



SCIUTTO: It's, of course, not always fireworks on Fourth of July, sadly, a very real and debilitating story for this country, mass shootings tend to increase around the holiday. Over the past three years, 77 happen collectively during the first week of July. A new effort from the FBI warns of troubling signs from those shooters that could be reported in advance and therefore, hopefully prevent a massacre.

CNN security correspondent Josh Campbell has this reporting.

Josh, sadly, you and I have covered mass shootings on American holidays, including July 4th. I think that everyone watching wants to do their part to prevent those kinds of things from happening.

So what kind of behavior specifically are we talking about here?

JOSH CAMPBELL, CNN HOST: You know, essentially, the FBI profilers who I think most people are familiar with where you sit them working their own cases, helping other agencies. But with this evolution and mass shootings, what they're doing now is actually pushing this information out to the public, letting all of us know what we should be looking for.

Let's take a look at some of those threat indicators. What they say in some of their research is that you want to see if people around you, if they start to comment or joke about threats of violence, maybe they're having a tough time coping with stress. Maybe they were once outgoing and involved in activities. And now they've receded into isolation.

Those are all things that we should be looking out for. And there's also this concept of the so-called grievance collectors. Someone who feel slide after slide and that builds and builds and then could actually lead to some type of violence.

And that is one of the topics that an FBI profiler that I spoke to mentioned specifically saying that, look, all of us need to be clubbed, paying closer attention to those around us to look for these indicators.

Have a listen.


DR. KARIE GIBSON, FBI BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS UNIT CHIEF: You have somebody who at one time in their life was functioning in a way where they were handling the stress. And now, we're seeing market changes to that. We're seeing someone who wants was able to deal with, you know, different challenging situations now, absolutely struggling with that. When you have the grievance collector, you have somebody that's keeping score, that's keeping track of those slides and those humiliating events and the different factors that have impacted them negatively. And they're really using that to fuel other justification for violence.


CAMPBELL: And, Jim, the FBI says that there's no one factor that will cause someone to conduct a mass shooting. But if you see someone having multiple characteristics on display, it could be worth talking to law enforcement.

SCIUTTO: Are there stories that you're aware of where people reporting behaviors like this help prevent shootings?

CAMPBELL: You know, it's very interesting. We've dug into that. We've seen in certain workplaces.

It was, for example, in Texas, there was a large warehouse where there were employees who were concerned about someone. They don't want to get the person in trouble, but they thought, look, let's go talk to police just in case.

The man was actually planning some type of actual attacks. We've seen that reporting, it actually works. And your point is spot on, Jim, the FBI saying you have to get past that hesitation because certainly, lives are on the line.

SCIUTTO: I mean, think of Ethan Crumbley's parents, right? They're sitting there talking to the counselor, the gun in his backpack. I mean, you have to regret those missed opportunities.

Josh Campbell, thanks so much.

CAMPBELL: You bet.

SCIUTTO: Since 2020, firearm injuries have been the leading cause of death for children in this country.

CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta spoke with a registered nurse, Kate Carleton, about her efforts to prepare schoolchildren, you heard that right, prepare schoolchildren to treat shooting injuries suffered in a mass attack.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: The gunman shot 26 people, most them six and seven-year-olds.

UNIDENTIFIED BOY: We're evacuating people. We're evacuating people.

KATE CARLETON, REGISTERED NURSE, SUTTER ROSEVILLE MEDICAL CENTER: Sandy Hook, I think it was an anniversary but and I saw something that came across. My heart broke for those families and I just thought about what when my kids do if they were in a situation like that, like, what were my husband do if he was in a situation like that? Like how can we help them?

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Kate Carleton has seen the very worst of humanity as a trauma nurse at Sutter Roseville Medical Center just outside of Sacramento.

After Sandy Hook, the young mom took on a new mission to empower kids, really young kids to do something during the unthinkable.

How much do you think about it? CARLETON: I think about it when my kids are in school. I think about

it when were at a sporting event. I think about it when we go to a mall, to an airport. It's just kind of one of those things that it's on your mind.

I wanted my kids and other kids that if they are in a situation where it may be an active shooter situation or mass shooter situation, that they could help.

Hi, guys.

GUPTA: Which is why we find ourselves in this classroom with these adorable third graders who are about to get a lesson in a way that I've never seen before. They're going to learn how to stop the bleed.

CARLETON: I want you to think about that. You guys have the knowledge and the power to save somebody's life by knowing this. You could save somebody's life. How does that make you feel?


CARLETON: I love that word, amazing. You're right. It makes you feel amazing.

So that's what were teaching you to do today, is we're teaching you how to save somebody's life.

GUPTA: Kate is now part of a grassroots movement among trauma specialists backed by the American College of Surgeons and the American Red Cross to teach these skills to young children. The likelihood of a child dying in a school shooting maybe rare, but a child dying from a firearm is not. In 2021, guns were the leading cause of death for young people under 18 in the United States, making up 19 percent of all children's deaths.

Stop the Bleed training was born in the aftermath of Sandy Hook when a panel of trauma specialists from around the country determined that turning bystanders into immediate responders could very well save lives.

What is staggering, though, is that for the past six years, Kate has been teaching kids as young as kindergarten how to pack a wound and stop bleeding.

CARLETON: So if you see somebody who's hurt and there's a puddle of blood next to them, that's one of the things you're going to look for. So everybody say, puddle.

KIDS: Puddle.


GUPTA: Kindergarteners, just seem so young to think about putting, you know, pressure on a wound, trying to stop the bleeding. But they seem to understand what you're saying.

CARLETON: As long as we presented in a way to them that is non- threatening, it's not scary, they roll with the information very well.

If I have a cut and the blood comes out like a sprinkler goes --

We kind of take away that active shooter part and just say look at where teaching bleeding control in -- what can happen in the home, or just when you're out on your day-to-day environment.

You think if they got caught with one of those saws, that that might cause them to get hurt pretty bad?

Yeah. Okay, we're going to take what we have and were going to pack it inside.

GUPTA: For the younger students, she emphasizes packing the wound deeply.

CARLETON: Next thing we're going to do is we're going to have to hold pressure.

GUPTA: Keeping in mind that with injuries like gunshot wounds, the bleeding often happens deep, so superficial pressure alone won't be enough.

CARLETON: Do you think you're strong enough to do this?

KIDS: Yes.

CARLETON: So I'm just going to have you guys put your knee on. It'll make a little bit easier for you. You won't get tired. Good? Okay.

GUPTA: So do you feel like you good now, that you had to actually do that?

JEREMY, THIRD GRADE STUDENT: Yeah. I think I would be like ready to like help anyone.

GUPTA: Wow. Well, what's the -- what's the best part of that for you?

JEREMY: Like the feeling when you get to see them go to the hospital and know that they're okay, like the feeling that you save someone's life.

CARLETON: We're going to go high and tight.

GUPTA: So, those that are older, like the sixth graders, including Kate's own daughter, she also teaches them to use tourniquets.

CARLETON: I'm going to twist this until the bleeding stops.

GUPTA: None of this is easy, empowering, yes, but sad that the training has become increasingly necessary.

The question about gun violence came up today in the sixth grade class. What goes through your mind when you know that topic has now been broached? CARLETON: What I tried to do is acknowledge it because it's real, but

I'm very aware and cognizant of not spending my time on the gun violence part, but it also tugs at my heartstrings a little bit, for sure with the kids that -- that's even on their mind.

GUPTA: In a world where we already teach our kids to run, hide, and fight during active shooter drills, teaching elementary students how to control bleeding, maybe come as useful as stop, drop, and roll.


I was watching you today and it was emotional for me even as a trauma surgeon to think that you're teaching kids to do things that, I don't know, I just feel like sad that kids would have to learn that.

CARLETON: Initially when I first started it, it used to, and I think I've really worked hard to take that emotion out of it. When I say that emotion is because I feel like when I would initially go into that with that kind of feeling, I just found that I couldn't teach the information in a way that it really, it resonated with them. It was being taught out of fear for me and I don't want that.

If we can teach it like teaching hands-only CPR, or how to use an AED, like it just becomes part of what we do. It can be used in all situations, whether it's a violent situation or it's not. But either way, it's saving somebody's life.

Stand up nice and tall, and what do you do? Pat yourselves on the back.

GUPTA: Dr. Sanjay Gupta CNN, Rockland, California.

CARLETON: All right. You guys saved their life.


SCIUTTO: Truly remarkable, kids need to be taught that.

Thanks to Dr. Sanjay Gupta for that story.

We'll be right back.


SCIUTTO: As Americans celebrate Independence Day, U.S. troops around the world are also marking to July Fourth overseas.

Take a look at this incredible fireworks display at U.S. Camp Humphreys in South Korea. A pretty nice one.

CNN's Michael Valerio is visiting the camp which happens to be the largest overseas U.S military base. Here's his report.


MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, right where we're standing, we're about 40 miles away from the heart of Seoul, South Korea, about 60 miles away from the border with North Korea.

But you would never know it. Quintessential Americana all around us. A couple of minutes ago, we had a splash pad over my left-hand shoulder, American barbecue over my right-hand shoulder, mixed with the Korean twist, Korean barbecue, K-Pop bands as well.

But, you know, this is so important for all whole multitude of American families. As you mentioned, this is the largest us overseas military post, 40,000 people connected to the U.S. Department of Defense are on this base right now. And for a lot of new families, it's about a baby a day born at this hospital on base. They need an experience like this celebrating the Fourth of July, not having the opportunity to celebrate back home, again, with their new families.


Playing today are the band members from Hoobastank that released the 2003 hits single., "The Reason".

We had an opportunity to talk to them before they went on stage. Listen to two of the band members told us.

DOUG ROBB, LEAD VOCALIST, HOOBASTANK: There's a lot of just gratitude and everybody seems so thankful and appreciative both ways, you know, and it's something that you cant replicate, just going to play a show, you know, at a -- at a theater somewhere. And it's really cool.

I look forward to it. It does. I can feel it for sure.

VALERIO: So what else? The base will be hosting today? We're going to have fireworks as soon as the sun goes down. Notably, two names that we have not heard all day throughout the base, Biden or Trump. I think it is not an understatement to say that people who are based here certainly are motivated by a unique steadiness of purpose to be a bastion preserving the security posture of the Korean peninsula and the region at large.

Michael Valerio, CNN, Camp Humphreys, South Korea.


SCIUTTO: Before we go, I want to remind you to tune into CNN special coverage of the UK election anchored by my colleagues Isa Soares and Richard Quest. That gets underway just before 10:00 p.m. London time. That's just before 5:00 in the afternoon here in the U.S., just about an hour from now.

Thanks so much for joining me today on this Independence Day. I'm Jim Sciutto in New York.