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Israel Conducts Pre-Emptive Strikes Against Hezbollah; Hezbollah: Launching Strikes In Response To Killing Of Top Military Commander;. Hezbollah Says First Phase Of Response To Israel Has Ended With Complete Success. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired August 25, 2024 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Michael Holmes. We continue our breaking news coverage from the Middle East and word of what Israel describes as pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. A short time ago, the Israeli military said it hit Hezbollah militants just as they were preparing to fire rockets and missiles into Israel.

It also added that about 200 rockets were launched from Lebanon towards Israel after Israel had struck. While Hezbollah later said it's carrying out its attacks in response to the recent killing of its top military commander by Israel in July, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is attending a security Cabinet meeting.

OK. I'm joined now by Ben Wedeman in Beirut and Jim Sciutto in Tel Aviv. Jim, to you first. What are you hearing about, the intelligence about why Israel struck first?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF SECURITY ANALYST: Israel is saying that they detected movements, preparations for a more extensive Hezbollah attack on Israel, more extensive than the cross border fire we have witnessed over the last days, weeks and months, going back to October 7. It's a daily event, but that they had intelligence indicating Hezbollah was planning something bigger, and therefore took pre-emptive action to strike some of those firing positions, missile firing positions, drone firing positions, et cetera.

I'm told by the IDF that its operations are still underway, that dozens of Israeli Air Force aircraft have been taking part in these operations, striking multiple targets inside southern Lebanon. And interestingly, the IDF putting out a statement to residents in southern Lebanon that Hezbollah, the IDF says is firing from positions close to civilian homes, and that people there should be on alert, that Israel is going to be firing back at those positions.

I should note that just in the last several minutes, it's our understanding that the Tel Aviv International Airport, Ben Gurion Airport, is now open again for a time. Over the course of the last couple of hours, all incoming and outgoing civilian flights were suspended due to the threat and due to those Israeli military operations, but those flights are now going again.

The number, as you said, Michael Holmes, some 200 rockets, drones, et cetera, fired into northern Israel from Lebanon. That is a much higher pace than we've seen over the course of the last several days and weeks. 200 in a couple of hours as compared to perhaps 100 in a 24- hour period. So the rate of fire from southern Lebanon into northern Israel certainly has -- has ticked up, and that perhaps informs the -- the assessment that Israel made.

But also the statement that Hezbollah has now put out. And Ben, I know, has more details on this, saying that it is now beginning its revenge or retaliation for Israel's assassination earlier -- earlier this summer. But I think you could take that the fact that the airport is now open here in Tel Aviv as a sign that the threat somewhat mitigated.

But in the northern part of Israel, as we understand it, they are closing roads. There are still alerts, and we heard a short time ago the first injury from these strikes that a civilian injured in the town of Akker just north of Haifa.

HOLMES: Yeah. OK. Jim Sciutto in Tel Aviv. Thanks so much. Ben Wedeman in Beirut, Jim mentioned that statement that came from Hezbollah. I know you've seen it. What are they saying about their plans?

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BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. This is the second statement within the last hour coming out from Hezbollah, saying that in the first stage of their response to the killing in late July of a senior Hezbollah military commander, they've fired at least 320 missiles in -- in addition to an unknown number of attack drones as well.

It appears that -- and they also mention a major military target that they said they successfully struck. What we're seeing is that it appears that, I mean they say they've conducted 11 separate strikes on targets in Israel, and that the focus of the strikes, in the initial phase of their response, is on barracks and other Israeli military positions.

It appears mostly in the north of the country, as well as targets within the Israeli occupied Syrian Golan Heights. So the actual targets they appear to be firing at are not out of the ordinary in terms of the focus of their attacks, what we've seen going back to the eighth of October of last year, is that they're very concentrated on those Israeli military positions near the border with Lebanon.

And now we -- I'm also seeing reports in Lebanese media that at least 10 separate places have been struck this morning so far in these Israeli air strikes. No word at this point of casualties. Of course, it's important to remember that as many as -- rather more than 100,000 Lebanese who used to live in the South have left those areas. I've been down there. Many of those towns and villages are largely abandoned, although there are some areas where people remain.

So certainly, the fear is that this is, as Hezbollah said, this is the first stage of their response, and now we'll just have to wait to see what the second stage brings.

HOLMES: Yeah, and Ben, you know Lebanon very well. I mean tell us more about Hezbollah's capabilities in a military sense, and these strikes are in the South. That's not where a lot of the longer range, more high tech, perhaps missiles are. What are Hezbollah's capabilities if this escalated?

WEDEMAN: Well, certainly the estimates are that they have at least 150,000 rockets of varying range and precision, but some of them can go all the way to the south of Israel. You're talking about long range precision missiles. They have drones that are fairly sophisticated as well. What's interesting is that last week, Hezbollah published a video which it claimed to be part of their underground complex.

In that video, you saw what appeared to be tunnels just cut out of the rocks. In those tunnels, there were men in uniform, there were trucks and motorcycles driving down them. So they really do have significant capability in terms of the weapons they have. And unlike Gaza, for instance, where the ground is essentially sand, here you have very rugged, rocky mountains running throughout the country from south to north.

And clearly Hezbollah has taken advantage of that to build fortifications, tunnel systems. And the indication is that if you're going -- if you have high value weapons, you're not going to put them along the border. You're going to keep them as far away as possible from Israel, from Israeli eyes, however, which are daily above us, but that those really high precision, high value weapons are going -- I have -- it appears, until now, have been kept in reserve.

A few weeks ago, the Israelis estimated that since the eighth of October, Hezbollah had fired about 5000 of its rockets and missiles, which really is just a drop in the bucket, if you've got more than 150,000 and we've seen, for instance, Hezbollah has been able to, on several occasions, knock out Iron Dome batteries, which is really the backbone of Israel's anti-missile defense system.

They've been able to knock out some of its anti-drone capabilities as well. And going back to October, we have seen that they have systematically tried to knock out Israeli surveillance and observation equipment along the border in order to sort of poke the -- one of the eyes of the Israelis in terms of keeping an eye on what's going on in Lebanon.

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So they -- they, as well, have been methodically doing this in anticipation of exactly what's happening today.

HOLMES: Yeah. Ben, great information. Ben Wedeman there in Beirut, our thanks. I do want to just repeat something Jim Sciutto said that flights have resumed at Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv airport. They were suspended, really only for a couple of hours from taking off and landing, but flights have resumed.

I want to go now to Jerusalem. Avi Mayer is former Editor-in-Chief for The Jerusalem Post. It's good to see you. What do you expect to come in the hours and perhaps days ahead? I mean, in the past, we've seen strike, restrike, restrike, and then stop. Or the risks, of course are escalation?

AVI MAYER, FORMER EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, THE JERUSALEM POST: Well, Michael, that's exactly right. We, of course, hope that this is the end of this round of fighting. As we know, there have been hundreds of Hezbollah rockets and drones that have been sent into Israel over the past couple of hours, but they've said this is only the first bout of what they call their response to the killing of their military commander in Beirut.

So of course, the potential here is for a significant escalation, perhaps even an unintended one, as my predecessor mentioned earlier on. All it takes is an errant missile hitting some civilian infrastructure, killing a large number of civilians in Israel and that would, of course, necessitate a very, very harsh Israeli response. So of course, we're very hopeful we don't get to that point, but there's certainly a danger that we might.

HOLMES: Yeah. I mean, when we -- when we talk about the risks for Israel if this were to escalate on that northern border, Israel has so much invested in the ongoing war in Gaza, it's also having to prepare for if Iran retaliates for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. What sort of stresses are placed on the capability of the IDF, if there were another major conflict with the resources and manpower that would be soaked up by that?

MAYER: Well, Michael, the reality is that Israel has been engaged in warfare with Hezbollah since October, the eighth. The north of the country has been under sustained attack from that time, and it's the estimate of many Israeli officials that there will be no choice but for there be a very wide scale conflict with Hezbollah at some point, or to remove that threat, enable the tens of thousands of Israeli families who have been evacuated from the north to return back home.

Now, of course, it would be Israel's preference not to have that take place as it engaged in warfare in the south and with Gaza and with Hamas. But of course, that's not something that necessarily Israel will be able to control. As I said, all it takes is for Hezbollah to significantly ramp up its attacks, to escalate in a meaningful way, and then you'll be in an all-out conflict, and that would be very hard to control at that point.

HOLMES: What do you think this does to the ceasefire and hostage negotiations that were underway? The U.S. had expressed optimism. A lot of people think, well, they've done that before. Maybe it was misplaced. A lot of moving parts in those negotiations. But what do you think this might do to those?

MAYER: That's an interesting question. The estimate had been that Hezbollah was going to hold off on its attack in order to have this round of negotiations play itself out, so as not to be blamed for thwarting them if they were indeed to fail. It appears as though that was not the case, that in fact, Hezbollah had been planning a wide scale attack this morning, which was thwarted, of course, by Israel's attack.

Now we don't know whether that will, in itself, cause today's round of negotiations to be postponed, canceled. I think many in Israel and certainly in Gaza, hope that those negotiations will consume it in hopes of actually obtaining some kind of a ceasefire deal. But the ball really remains in the negotiators court.

HOLMES: Yeah, so when it -- when it comes to Benjamin Netanyahu, what do you think he is planning when it comes to the regional risk? Does he -- does he want to destroy Hezbollah the way he said he wanted to destroy Hamas. Or is this more punching in the nose?

MAYER: Well, I don't know that at the moment, the goal is to imminently destroy Hezbollah. Hezbollah, as we know, is a military force that is significantly stronger than Hamas. It has an arsenal of well over 100,000 missiles that, as you said, can reach targets deep into Israel. And so I don't know that it is an immediate priority, or even in Israel's immediate goal, to destroy Hezbollah and make sure that it can't carry out those attacks again.

But I think what we're looking for is some kind of deterrence to ensure that the threat, the imminent threat to the residents of Israel's North is removed. That Hezbollah is perhaps itself moved north of the Litani River, as it is supposed to be for according to prior agreements, and ensure that those residents of Northern Israel who haven't seen their homes for 10 months are able to return home.

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That, I think, is the immediate goal here. Certainly no one in Israel wants this to turn into an all- out regional war, but again, all it takes is a slight miscalculation on Hezbollah's part or the involvement of Iran for that to actually come to pass.

HOLMES: A miscalculation on all parts is the risk, I guess. Avi Mayer, I appreciate your time. Thanks so much there in Jerusalem for us.

OK, CNN Military Analyst, Colonel Cedric Leighton joins me now to talk more. Cedric, what's your bird's eye view of this Israel acting pre- emptively hitting Hezbollah targets first?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yeah, I think Michael, one of the key factors of this was the intelligence part of this. When the Israelis decided to conduct this operation, they were clearly looking at what amounted to imminent threat warning data, and they felt that they needed to act pre-emptively, and so this is what you see now.

Of course, Hezbollah was ready to respond. They were ready to, first of all, attack Israel. When that was thwarted by the Israeli air attacks, they were still able to launch some 300 missiles, as was mentioned earlier. So what we see here is basically the Israelis moving forward with a very robust intelligence capability, coupled with their willingness to use their military in a pre-emptive fashion. And this is something that they've done historically, but it, of course, is one of those situations that is very -- at a very acute moment when it comes to the hostage negotiations as well as the overall tensions in the Middle East.

So the next thing that we have to watch out for, in my view, is what the Iranians are going to do, and whether or not that's going to tip the balance one way or the other when it comes to what's next for the Middle East, whether it's a further conflict that continues in the way. It's been going -- or it goes it gets worse and there's a major conflagration, or there's a relaxation of some tensions in this case.

Hezbollah, of course, has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles and drones. And as we were discussing with Ben Wedeman, not all of them are in southern Lebanon, far from it. What could Hezbollah do if it wanted?

LEIGHTON: Well, if it wanted to do something like a -- like we're kind of hypothesizing Michael, like we could hit see Hezbollah using some of the missiles that they have in storage in either Central or northern Lebanon, and trying to overwhelm the Israeli air defense system. If they do that, then, of course, tensions would dramatically increase and the next stage of this is something that we really can't ascertain now.

But if Hezbollah wanted to do this, they could move some of their 150,000 or so rockets and missiles into a position where they could fire them in a fairly sequential order, and then try to overwhelm these Israeli air defense systems like the Iron Dome and David's Sling and the Arrow system.

HOLMES: Yeah, no, you know, because it's interesting, and it's important to point out Lebanon is not like surrounded and besieged Gaza and Hezbollah isn't Hamas in terms of military capabilities, as we've been discussing. What are the military risks for Israel here?

LEIGHTON: Well, they're considerable. If the Israelis miscalculate and draw in another party like the Iranians or Hamas, Hezbollah and some of the militias in Iraq that are currently in Iraq and Syria as well as the Iranians, get together and do something, that could potentially cause some significant issues for the Israelis.

But the biggest risk is really what we're talking about as a two front or even a three front war that the Israelis would be forced to fight. That would mean fighting Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran over a fairly long distance, and that is the kind of threat that, of course, would tax the Israeli defense system, not just the air defense system, but their entire military in a way that would be very hard for them to deal with. And that, I think, is, I think, the biggest threat at the moment.

HOLMES: Yeah, yeah, Colonel Cedric Leighton, as always great to get your analysis. Appreciate that. We'll talk to you soon. You're watching CNN. We'll be more -- back with more of our break in news coverage after the break.

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HOLMES: Hezbollah says it is carrying out strikes on Israel in response to the recent killing of its top military commander. Israel says the barrage of some 200 rockets came from Lebanon Sunday morning, with air defenses working to intercept them. Hezbollah puts the number much higher, over 300 they say they fired. All of this happening after Israel conducted what it called a pre-emptive strike in Lebanon earlier, saying it hit Hezbollah militants just as they were preparing to fire missiles and rockets into Israel.

The Tel Aviv airport was temporary closed, but flights have since resumed, while the residents of the Golan Heights, the occupied Golan Heights, have been told to stay in shelters for now. I'm joined now by retired U.S. Army Major General Mark MacCarley, it's good to see you, sir. What do you think Israel's strategy was in striking first, and without Hezbollah having launched that major attack, there has been the tit for tat, of course, for weeks and months, but they hadn't launched that major attack. Is there a risk in striking first?

MARK MACCARLEY, U.S. ARMY MAJOR GENERAL (RET): I'll answer the first part of your question. A pre-emption in a pre-emptive strike is truly characteristic of Israeli IDF, war fighting, it was demonstrated as far back as 1967 in that particular conflict in which the (inaudible) and in the context of today, in which the Hezbollah has such a significant number of missiles and other weapons systems, it would behoove if in fact one of us were the tactical commander, it would behoove us to strike and eliminate as many of those particular projectiles, those missiles, as possible if in fact you were sitting in the Command Headquarters of the IDF.

The real risk, as we discussed last week, is that the Iron Dome this sort of euphemism for multiple number of layered air defense systems in Israel that Israel possesses, the biggest risk is that that system would be overwhelmed. So with that taken into consideration, it makes all sorts of tactical sense for Israel the IDF to strike, knock out as many as possible, and then wait for this somewhat degraded avalanche of weapons attack, which you've just seen in the last couple of hours.

HOLMES: We've talked a lot over recent weeks about the risk of regional war here on CNN, not just Hezbollah, but Iran. And then you've got pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria who can fire on U.S. bases. You've got the Houthis and so on. Does an action like this risk prompting broader military action in the region?

MACCARLEY: There's no way to answer this except by saying absolutely, just as Colonel Leighton, Cedric Leighton addressed, this creates all sorts of risk.

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You have an attack, and whether this attack, if you begin to dissect it, do sort of an analysis, part of the risk is, that when Hezbollah attacks, it still has a significant number of these missiles, and if it succeeds, or gets very close to degrading the ability of the Israelis and the U.S., to the extent that the U.S. and its allies and Jordan are participating and trying to take these Hezbollah attacks down, you could create an environment in which the -- what has now been called the Ring of Fire, and you've identified those members of the Ring of Fire, and that is Syria, of course, Iran, Yemen, some say, Iraq, with elements of ISIS operating in Iraq.

And altogether, those systems themselves could be used as a second layer of attack. We've got the first layer, and the risk is a second layer, assuming that this is what Hezbollah wants, and that that was part of the strategy of Hezbollah to respond the retaliatory response as a consequence of the death of Shukr and Haniyeh from the Hamas side. So that's a big risk, yes, yes.

HOLMES: Yeah, yeah, fascinating and worrying. You mentioned Iran, they of course, have threatened their own retaliation for the assassination of the Hamas political wing leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. That is yet to happen. Do you think this might trigger them? I mean, what would that look like?

MACCARLEY: Once again, the question begs the only appropriate answer. Sure it could trigger it, as I suggested just a minute ago, this -- what we're looking at could be the first wave of a multi -- multi- pronged attack, assuming that this ring of fire is coordinated, meaning Hezbollah talks to Iran, Iran talks to Hamas, and everything that we're going to see in the next couple of hours is a consequence of some grand strategy.

Now maybe I'm giving too much credit to Hezbollah and to Iran. Maybe there's communication, but not such that would suggest that Iran would immediately respond in another three or four hours with its own launching of multiple rocket systems on Israel. But that threat exists, and that's why you got a statement out of the IDF headquarters a couple of hours ago.

And that statement was, we're prepared for all sorts of contingencies, whether it's Iran, certainly Hezbollah, if Hamas acts up as certainly that risk exists.

HOLMES: Yeah. Great analysis. Retired U.S. Army Major General Mark MacCarley, thanks very much.

MACCARLEY: Thank you.

HOLMES: And we will continue our breaking news coverage as Israel launches pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon. We'll have more details after the break.

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HOLMES: Returning now to the breaking news from the Middle East. The Israeli military striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The IDF says militants were preparing to fire rockets and missiles into Israel, and it added about 200 rockets were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Hezbollah says it launched more than 300 missiles.

A short time ago, Hezbollah confirmed they're carrying out strikes in response to the killing of a top commander last month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet soon with his security cabinet. The White House says President Joe Biden is monitoring events and communicating with Israeli counterparts.

Joining me now from Canberra Australia is Malcolm Davis. He's a Senior Analyst in Defense Strategy and Capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Good to see you, Malcolm. As we've often discussed in this part of the world, the biggest risk is that of unintended consequences. What are your concerns in this chapter of the conflict, in terms of what could come next?

MALCOLM DAVIS, SENIOR ANALYST, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Well, I think we've all been on sort of tender hooks waiting for some sort of attack to break out, and it now looks like this could be the beginning of a process of escalation. Certainly, I think Israel clearly had credible intelligence that Hezbollah was going to launch an attack, so they decided to pre-empt and disrupt that attack in the aim to defeat that attempt by Hezbollah to launch attacks on Israel.

But the risk, of course, is that now Hezbollah has large numbers of missiles and rockets, so this attack won't necessarily have defeated Hezbollah completely. Hezbollah could come back with further attacks that would -- Israel would then respond to. And the other big issue is Iran, and how Iran responds to this.

If Iran stands back and does nothing as Hezbollah is being attacked by Israel, then they will lose credibility in the eyes of Hezbollah, and that could weaken Iran's influence in the region. So I suspect that what we're in for is the possibility that Iran could decide at some point to enter this conflict, and then you have that escalatory cycle going up to a wider Middle East regional war.

HOLMES: Yeah, it certainly does. I mean, Hezbollah does say its reaction is just the beginning. I mean, it's not, you know, punching each other in the nose and stopping by the sound of what Hezbollah is saying. I mean, what sorts of things could cause the situation to spiral out of control?

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I'm thinking rockets landing in civilian areas, major casualty event, perhaps Israel hitting in the center of Beirut. I mean, those sorts of things that would perhaps bring not just Iran into it, but the pro- Iranian militias in Syria in Iraq, who can then strike at U.S. bases, which has a whole other specter to it.

DAVIS: Exactly so if -- subsequent Hezbollah attacks on Israel lead to significant Israeli casualties, I think that Israel will strike back even harder, and that could then generate a Hezbollah response. And at the same time, you know, Israel itself will be under -- will be thinking, well, we're in this now, maybe we need to pre-empt any Iranian response. The Israelis will be watching what the Iranians are doing very

closely, and if they see any evidence whatsoever of an Iranian preparation to launch attacks on Israel, then it wouldn't surprise me if Israel pre-empted against Iran as well, because they will not want to see a combination of Iran and Hezbollah and these militias, as you mentioned in Iraq and Syria, launching simultaneous attacks that overwhelm Israeli integrated air and missile defenses, and these the U.S. dimension is the other important one.

Obviously, the U.S. has deployed significant forces into the region to help defend Israel against a large attack. But if there are U.S. casualties, it will be certainly essential for the Biden administration to retaliate in some way if there are U.S. casualties. So this war could escalate quite significantly, very quickly in the coming hours and days.

HOLMES: Yeah, and you know, there's been -- there are many, not -- not just around the world, but inside Israel, who thinks that Netanyahu has been spoiling for a war with Iran for years and years now, and would like to have the U.S. involved in fighting it for him. I mean, how nervous would the U.S. be about that possibility of being dragged into something it does not want to be involved in?

DAVIS: Well, look, I think there's two dimensions here. Firstly, the U.S. can't not defend Israel, because that would be very politically damaging back home in terms of being -- the U.S. being seen to turn away from a key ally. But at the same time, the U.S. doesn't want to be dragged in, particularly with the old saying of boots on the ground in a large scale Middle Eastern war again, because the GOP would jump on that another unending war in the Middle East.

So I think that it's a complex situation for the U.S. They have to defend Israel. They can't afford to allow Iran to inflict massive damage on Israel. But at the same time, the U.S. can't afford to be dragged in on a large scale conflict. They will defend themselves very obviously, you know, but at the same time, they won't want to get into the point whereby they're firing Netanyahu's shots for him. So I wouldn't necessarily expect us strikes on Iran itself. I would expect a defensive posture from the U.S.

HOLMES: Always good to speak with you, Malcolm. Malcolm Davis, there in Canberra. Thanks.

DAVIS: Thank you very much.

HOLMES: All right, let's go back now to Yaakov Katz, Senior Columnist at the Jerusalem Post, joining me from New York. I don't know if you're listening to Malcolm there, what are your concerns in the hours and perhaps days ahead?

YAAKOV KATZ, SENIOR COLUMNIST, THE JERUSALEM POST: Well, I think right now, the ball is in the court of Hezbollah and it has to decide how it's going to retaliate, because, on the one hand, Israel did pre- empt. It apparently took out the capability that Hezbollah was trying to use to launch those longer range rockets into Tel Aviv and into the center of the country. What we saw over the last hour, hour and a half, was the firing of

about 350 rockets towards the north. Those are areas that have pretty much come under most of the Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks over the last 10 months. Many of those, about 200 or so, were said to have been intercepted by the IDF.

But the question will be, is Hezbollah done, or Michael, does Hezbollah want to go another round and do try to get some of those longer range rockets into the Tel Aviv and to the center of Israel that would provoke a larger Israeli response, likely, I would say, potentially, into Beirut itself.

HOLMES: Yeah, and to that point. I mean, what -- so what do you think Benjamin Netanyahu's calculation is when it comes to Hezbollah? He's faced a lot of internal criticism in Israel for months about all kinds of things. How far do you think he wants to go with Hezbollah, and what are the risks?

KATZ: Well, you know, I heard what you said before, Michael, about that some people have been thinking or saying that Netanyahu is actually trying to vie to get the U.S. involved into a larger war, potentially against Hezbollah and Iran, and maybe that's what he's wanted, but I would say that the last 10 months have kind of shown that Israel doesn't want that.

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Israel has been trying to contain and limit the conflict in the north, to not escalate into something much bigger and greater, and has tried to keep it under wraps and just focused and isolated to what's happening in northern Israel and into southern Lebanon. So the fact that that's been Israel's position over the last 10 months, it might have changed. And it could be that this massive American military buildup now in the region has gotten Netanyahu to think, well, we have these American forces here now.

We've pretty much finished degrading Hamas' capabilities in the South. There is now the resources and the attention span of the IDF, the Israel Defense Forces, to potentially take on Hezbollah in a bigger way. So that's always an option, but I would still think that the last 10 months do show where Israel is in its mindset, and the fact that we're supposed to have these new round of negotiations in Cairo about a potential hostage deal that could de-escalate the whole region if a deal is reached.

So it seems that Israel is playing on a multiple fronts, at the time being. Still fighting in Gaza, trying to contain Hezbollah in the north, and hoping that maybe a hostage deal will bring everything to an end.

HOLMES: You mentioned that the ceasefire and hostage negotiations, how could this impact, this -- particularly if this goes further, than it is now?

KATZ: Well, look, Israel has said that it wants to get those hostages back home and we know that every day that passes, those hostages' lives are in greater peril and risk. We just saw last week how six of the hostages, male hostages were declared dead by the -- their bodies, sorry were returned to Israel.

They were all taken on October 7th alive and they were killed over time inside those Hamas tunnels in Gaza. So Israel knows that the time is ticking and there is not time for these hostages. If there is a deal, it would lead definitely to a ceasefire in Gaza but I think it would have wider repercussions. Hezbollah has said it would stop it's attacks. Iran we know has been waiting and has not yet attacked for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, also last month which it blames on Israel, the Hamas leader who was killed in that IRGC guest house.

So this deal if reached has really the potential to deescalate the entire region. I think that's why Michael, the Biden administration has been putting such a big effort and a lot of pressure on all sides to try to get this deal done because they recognize that it can really bring an end to this war that has plagued the entire Middle East and even further beyond in the last ten months.

HOLMES: And in the -- I won't say background but sort of hovering over all of this is Iran which has promised its own revenge for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. What are your concerns about how easily it could get out of hand regionally of Iran decided it wanted to buy in at the moment?

KATZ: Well, I think what we have learned over the last 10 months is that there is no longer these wars that Israel fights against one of Iran proxies like used to. It just fought against Hamas in Gaza or just against Hezbollah in the north or just against Palestinian insurgents and terrorist groups in the West Bank. Today all of these proxies that Iran has including other Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, they are all connected as one and if you fight a war with one, you are potentially fighting a war with all and we would all remember Michael, in April, it was April 13 when Iran launched 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at Israel.

So this is one big enemy that Israel is fighting against and therefore the assumption always needs to be now for the IDF that when it fights with one, it is fighting with all. And therefore a wider war with Hezbollah will almost definitely mean that we will likely see rockets and missiles and potentially drones that are going to launched from Iran also at Israel. So Israel has to always keep that into consideration that when it fights with one of these enemies it actually has to be prepared for war and with all the different fronts, with all of the different enemies at the same time.

HOLMES: always good to see Yaakov Katz there.

KATZ: Thank you.

HOLMES: Thanks very much. Appreciate it. And we will be right back with more of that breaking news. You're watching CNN.

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HOLMES: And we are following breaking news out of the Middle East. Israeli military says it is currently striking targets across southern Lebanon after they identified, quote, extensive preparations by Hezbollah militants to fire towards Israel.

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DANIEL HAGARI, SPOKESPERSON, ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES: A short while ago, the IDF identified Hezbollah terrorist organization preparing to fire missiles, rockets towards Israeli territory. In a Self Defense Act to remove these threats, the IDF is striking terror targets in Lebanon, from which Hezbollah was planning to launch their attacks on Israeli civilians.

This follows more than 6700 rockets, missiles and explosive UAVs fired by Hezbollah at Israeli families, homes and communities since October 8. Hezbollah will soon fire rockets, and possibly missiles and UAVs towards Israeli territory.

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HOLMES: The IDF says around 200 rockets were launched from Lebanon towards Israel, and Hezbollah just said that the first phase of its strikes against Israel has ended with complete success.

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They went on to say that that was focused on targeting Israeli military sites that would prevent Israel from intercepting a second barrage of attacks aimed at what Hezbollah is calling a desired target deep inside Israel, without specifying what that target might be, nor when that second phase might happen. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attending a security cabinet meeting. Let's continue the discussion with Alon Pinkas. He's a former Israeli Consul General in New York. Joins me now from Tel Aviv, Israel. Always a pleasure to see you.

How far do you think Netanyahu was willing to go with Hezbollah and what are the risks of miscalculation? How far is too far?

ALON PINKAS, FORMER ISRAELI CONSUL GENERAL IN NEW YORK: Well, I'll start with the second question, Michael. The risk of miscalculation is immense. It's huge, and it is, you know, it's very difficult to quantify, because all you need is one miscalculation before hell breaks loose.

Going back to your original and first question. Look, we're now inside an escalatory process. It's like a vicious circle. Now Israel is awaiting to see what Hamas -- what, I'm sorry, what Hezbollah is going to do. That depends on the scope and the type of targets. Are they civilian centers? Are they just military targets? Are they deep inside Israel, or are they limited to military bases or military installations in the north? If that is the case, then Israel will retaliate in a restrained way.

If civilian targets are hit and there are civilian casualties, then you have to assume and imagine that Israel will retaliate more massively, and that's how the vicious cycle works. Look, this has been -- we've had this discussion on your show, Michael.

This has been in the making for a full month now. I mean, ever since the two assassinations, one in Beirut and one in Tehran. So there shouldn't be any surprise here.

HOLMES: Yeah, yeah, yeah, good point. And you're right. We've talked about this a lot over the last few weeks. You know, I wanted to ask you this. I mean, what is the mood of Israelis right now? You know, with the war in Gaza continuing, what's happening on the northern border escalating as we speak, and the specter of promised retaliation by Iran for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh hanging over everything.

How are Israelis feeling right now, and do they think they're being well-led by the Netanyahu government?

PINKAS: Well, they're feeling nervous. They're feeling anxious. They're feeling -- they're feeling, I'm sorry, uncertainty. And you know, to be honest, they find it hard to reconcile why Hezbollah joined the war. I mean, there was, there was a terror attack on October 7 by Hamas and a war in Gaza that ensued. There was apparently no reason, no, no substantive reason for Hezbollah to join in.

And Israel, according to most Israelis, that's how they feel. Israel has been pretty much restrained and mellow in how it responded to constant harassment and over 6000 rockets and missiles and drones fired at it. So people are frustrated with that. At the same time, they have a sense that Mr. Netanyahu has been seeking actively, proactively seeking escalation from the outset, that he never accepted the American equation, according to which a ceasefire in Gaza would lead to de-escalation.

You and I have used the word escalation for a lifetime, I think.

HOLMES: Yeah.

PINKAS: But they don't. They don't have a lot of confidence in Mr. Netanyahu's motivations in his judgment, and they do suspect that he's being driven by political considerations rather than national security, but you know, they'll just have to wait and see how this vicious cycle unfolds. I'm sorry.

HOLMES: Yeah, and our conversations over -- over weeks now have talked about too how, you know, many in Israel and outside Israel don't think Netanyahu wants a ceasefire with Hamas that he's dragging it out, moving the goal post and so on. Do you think -- we've only got a minute left? But do you think this harms the negotiations as they stand now?

PINKAS: Oh, absolutely. I think you can look at it from the exact opposite direction, Michael. The fact that Hezbollah chose to do this now means that they have come to a realization that nothing is going to happen in the ceasefire talk. You can go to Doha, Qatar. You can go to Cairo, Egypt. You can email each other and you can WhatsApp each other, but it's going nowhere.

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So they felt comfortable that they will not be accused of undermining these negotiations and -- and, ergo, they -- they retaliated. What people don't understand, I mean people in Israel, per your previous question is, what is the aim of all this? I mean, what are the political objectives here? OK, they struck. We strike. They struck. We strike back. Where is this going? And the answer is nowhere.

HOLMES: Yeah. Always great to get your analysis. Alon Pinkas, appreciate you there.

PINKAS: Thank you, Michael.

HOLMES: All right. I am Michael Holmes, and we will have more of our breaking news in just a moment with Ivan Watson.

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