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Lebanese Health Ministry: 356 Killed In Israeli Strikes, 1,000+ Wounded; Suspect In Trump Assassination Attempt In Florida Denied Bail; Zelenskyy In U.S. To Attend UNGA, Present "Victory Plan"; Spending Deal Reached To Avoid Federal Government Shutdown; CNN Analysis: Closest Presidential Race Since 1960. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired September 23, 2024 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:51]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: It is 8:00 p.m. in London, 10:00 p.m. at the Israel-Lebanon border, 12:00 p.m. in Phoenix, 3:00 p.m. here in Washington.

I'm Jim Sciutto. Thanks so much for joining me today on CNN NEWSROOM. And let's get right to the news.

Israel's long simmering conflict with Hezbollah is now some feared on the brink of all-out war, this after the deadliest today between Israel and Lebanon in some 20 years. The Lebanese health minister called the numbers, quote, on unprecedented said Israeli strikes have killed at least 356 people, including women and children, and wounded more than 1,000.

Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu says the war is not with Lebanon, but with Hezbollah.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: I have a message for the people of Lebanon, Israel's war is not with you. It's with Hezbollah. For too long, Hezbollah has been using you as human shields. It plays rockets in your living rooms and missiles in your garage. Those rockets and missiles are aimed directly at our cities directly at our citizens. To defend our people against Hezbollah strikes, we must take out those weapons.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: The IDF is now urging Lebanese civilians in the Bekaa valley, a Hezbollah stronghold, to evacuate immediately.

CNN's Ben Wedeman and Jeremy Diamond join me now.

Ben in Beirut, Lebanon, if I could begin with you, that deadliest day since 2006, the last Israel-Lebanon war, I wonder where you are. Do the Lebanese people believe they're already in a war with Israel?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: If you look at the death toll, if you look at the number of people who are streaming out of south Lebanon, if you look at the number of airstrikes in the south of Lebanon in the Bekaa Valley and elsewhere, it certainly does look like a war. If you look at, for instance, the death toll, 356, according to the ministry of health, keep in mind, that's essentially a third of the entire number of people killed, Hezbollah and civilians in the 34-day war in 2006. And among them the dead, the death toll so far today. And of course this is not the final death toll, we're talking about 66 women and children.

What we're seeing are tens of thousands, if not more people streaming out of south Lebanon after they received those messages from the Israelis via cell phone, text messages and the Israelis breaking into the broadcast in a local radio station telling them to leave, but they strikes began just around 5:00 a.m. local time this morning. Intense strikes as many as 1,000 at this point so far today, that really just sent people streaming the road, the highway between the south and Beirut is jam-packed on both sides of the highway. Many people have just stopped by the side of the road to wait until things clear up.

Those who are coming to Beirut are taking shelter in schools. Also, of course, schools, universities have all been canceled throughout Lebanon. And as I said, as you mentioned, they are now striking the Bekaa Valley. You call it a Hezbollah stronghold, but it's actually home to hundreds of thousands of people, many of them have nothing to do with Hezbollah, and they were given a essentially a two-hour warning to get out of any house or building where they believe Hezbollah was storing weapons.

The recommendation from an Israeli military spokesman was get 1,000 meters at least away and perhaps take refuge in local schools. But we can expect tens of thousands if not -- poor people to stream out of there. Many of them will be heading into the mountains where they believe they say they're safe. But if this war really accelerates, then there may be no place in Lebanon that's safe -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Listen, those movements of people attempting to avoid war have just become so familiar in these last several months, of course.

[15:05:02]

Jeremy, these attacks have primarily been from the air today, in addition to, of course, that that fast -- vast attack on the Hezbollah communications network via exploding pagers, are there preparations or any public discussion of ground operations, major Israeli ground operations as to the part, as part of its plan?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, that certainly is one of the questions that is being asked tonight, across Israel. It was a question that was posed to the Israeli military spokesman tonight and he would not answer it directly, only saying that the military is prepared for all scenarios. What we haven't seen yet is the kind of major call-up of reservists that would be -- that we would likely expect in the event of a major ground defensive, there has been some movement of troops being redirected to the northern front, some troops being called up for reserve duty, but nothing out of the ordinary thus far. Instead, it seems that the Israeli military has chosen that for now at

least, it will rely primarily on its overwhelming airpower, striking more than 1,300 targets in Lebanon today alone, making this the most intensive bombardment of Lebanon since the 2006 war.

What more will follow -- we'll just have to wait and see. What is clear though is that the Israeli government has made a decision that they are no longer going to engage in this kind of tit for tat with Hezbollah, which began on October 8 when Hezbollah began firing rockets in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian people. Instead, the Israeli government has decided to radically begin escalating the situation in Lebanon, strike -- striking far more, far deeper in Lebanon than they typically would and they are doing so to try and change the equation, they say.

The Israeli prime minister today talking about changing the balance of power to try and restore security for Israel's northern residents.

For now, though, there is no indication that Hezbollah is going to be cowed by these strikes instead, what Hezbollah is doing is they are striking deeper into Israel than they typically do. We saw them strike tonight right here I am in Haifa at least five rockets that were directed towards the city all intercepted according to the Israeli military. But the first time that rocket sirens sounded in this major population center in northern Israel.

And earlier today, we also saw several rockets fired into the West Bank, just east of Tel Aviv, some 60 plus miles away from the Lebanese border. And so that is how Hezbollah is responding right now then we wait for the next response.

Ben Wedeman, Jeremy Diamond, thanks so much.

Here to discuss the military terms of this, retired Colonel Cedric Leighton.

Good to have you on. I wonder in military terms, Israel clearly focusing on Hezbollah leadership, both with these strikes and that pager attack, but also weapons stores here. Is it weakening Hezbollah in a lasting way or are these capabilities in personnel that has bullock and easily replace?

CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Jim, I wouldn't say they can easily replace them, but what you can say is that at least for the short to medium-term, this is a significant blow to Hezbollah and were looking at, is you mentioned the decapitation strikes against the Hezbollah leadership the pager attacks, which were part of that, the walkie-talkie tags and then, of course, as you mentioned, the weapons storage facilities that have been attacked.

One of the interesting things is that the Israelis are talking about phases. So this is basically the first phase of their operation against Hezbollah. They want to make it clear that they're going after Hezbollah as an organization, not Lebanese state, toward the Lebanese people. But regardless, they are still going to have to create a lot of damage

on Lebanese territory in order to achieve their goals and so far, this seems to be a very escalatory step and its clearly aimed at, at the very least softening up the Hezbollah target for further Israeli action.

SCIUTTO: So, that last part is where I'm curious, as Jeremy was saying, we haven't seen the major mobilization of reservists that would come prior to a major ground offensive in there which might mimic what we saw in 2006. Do you see a ground phase to this operation? And without such a ground operation, can Israel accomplish what, what seems to be the goal here, which is to push Hezbollah further back from the border. There's long been this talk of pushing the back to the Litani River. Can it do so purely from the air?

LEIGHTON: No. I think the answer to that is that they cannot do it only using air power and I say this as an air force guy. They can inflict a lot of damage on Hezbollah in terms of the command and control structure, their ability to mass for operations to, you know, conduct the kind of things that maybe we would see a ground force, a conventional ground force.

[15:10:15]

So, they can -- clearly, Israelis can clearly prevent Hezbollah from doing that.

But the problem that the Israelis are going to have if they not mobilize their ground troops quickly before a ground incursion just from a pure military standpoint, its going to be very difficult to achieve the goals that they seem to have set themselves. And you mentioned the Litani River, that seems to be the logical border between -- in terms of a buffer zone between Lebanese territory that is Hezbollah free, if you will, and the rest of Lebanon.

And that would be in concert with the Israelis the goal of allowing of their people, enabling their people who have had to evacuate the northern towns and cities, the 60,000 or so that are in that category, that will allow them to get into that, into that area. But I do to achieve that, its going to take a while if they especially if they don't use troops to do it. And I don't see it happening with the ground troops.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, coming up on a year those northern Israelis have been forced to evacuate from their homes.

Before we go, I want to talk about Iran. Iran's president said today his country will seek revenge for the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Tehran in July. But quote, does not want to be the reason for creating instability in the region. Do you read that as a deliberate communication from Tehran that it wants to avoid escalation?

LEIGHTON: Yes. I think the Iranians only communicate deliberately especially at that level and they clearly want to have some kind of means of response for the Haniyeh assassination, but they don't want to cause a conflagrations that is in line with having a more moderate government in Tehran in terms of the president at least, and that I think is going to go to keep the pot and a low simmer instead of full boil.

SCIUTTO: Cedric Leighton, thanks so much for joining as always.

Joining me now is Vedant Patel, who's the principal deputy spokesperson for the U.S. State Department.

Thanks so much for taking the time. We appreciate you joining the show.

VEDANT PATEL, PRINCIPAL DEPUTY SPOKESPERSON, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: So good to be with you, Jim. Thanks for having me.

SCIUTTO: Let me begin, of course, with the situation in the Middle East. The U.S. has communicated for months a desire to all parties in this conflict to reduce chances of escalation. I wonder, is Israel proceeding with these expanded attacks on Hezbollah over the objections of the U.S. and us officials have communicated with the Israeli government?

PATEL: Jim, that has absolutely been our goals since October 7, doing everything we can to ensure that we do not see a spread of escalation, that we do everything we can to make sure that tensions are not incited. But let's not forget also that Hezbollah, of course, is a terrorist organization that time and time again has unleashed terror on the Israeli people.

Our goal, however, remains to find a diplomatic resolution. So as you noted in your previous segment, so that these Israeli civilians, these Lebanese civilians, who for alarm time now have not been able to return home, can finally do so.

SCIUTTO: We have seen a pattern since October 7th, and of course, the quite broad support from President Biden and others in the wake of those horrible attacks we have seen a pattern of U.S. officials encouraging Israel to, for instance, better avoid civilian casualties in Gaza led in more aid to Gaza, make concessions for a ceasefire and hostage deal, only to see, and by the way, some of this criticism comes from inside Israel as well, Netanyahu not to deliver on those U.S. requests.

And I wonder, can you cite an example where the U.S. has issued an objection that Netanyahu has complied with or a request or demand?

PATEL: So, look, Jim, we have a very robust and direct relationship with our Israeli partners. And of course, since October 7th, we have that had many frank and serious discussions with them on the topics of doing everything to mitigate civilian harm, doing everything to ensure that humanitarian access is able to get into Gaza and we'll continue to have those conversations, whether it be privately or publicly.

But in the context of a ceasefire, Jim, let's just not lose sight on the fact that that is what it is in the best interest of the region. It's in the interest of the Israeli people. It's in the interest of the Palestinian people, and its also why we want to see a diplomatic resolution in the north because again, we want to see Israeli and Lebanese civilians be able to finally return home.

SCIUTTO: That ceasefire, those negotiations were often cited as a reason and incentive for not just Hezbollah, but for Iran to avoid escalating because they wanted to give those negotiations a chance -- chance to move who forward.

[15:15:10]

Now that those negotiations appear to be stalled -- at least in some of that is commentary from inside that negotiating team -- what is holding back? What's holding back the region from this getting bigger and worse?

PATEL: We are working tirelessly around the clock, sending a very clear message about de-escalation. I was with Secretary Blinken last week in Egypt and in Europe where he had this very discussion with counterparts, with Egyptian counterparts, with counterparts in Europe, sending a clear message that we want to do everything we can to deescalate, to manage tensions. We don't want to see this conflict spread.

There is too much at stake and we're here in New York, at the high level week for the U.N. General Assembly. And I imagined well be continuing to have those very real conversations with not just allies and partners in the immediate region, but around the world as well.

SCIUTTO: You heard me, quote, as I was speaking to my previous interview Iranian, the Iranian president saying that Iran does not want to be the cause of escalation, I'm paraphrasing there.

But does the U.S. see that as a deliberate message from Iran that it wants to deescalate. And hasn't been any back-channel communication between U.S. officials and Iranian officials?

PATEL: Jim, I don't have any diplomatic conversations to read out. There has been no communication, but let's not lose sight of fact on one thing since 1979, Iran and it has been the biggest exporter of terrorism around the world. Its actions speak louder than world. It is a backer of malign, de-stabilizing groups like Hezbollah like Hamas, like the Houthis, who for months and months now have been causing instability in the region.

And so, from the United States perspective, actions speak louder than words. We want to see de-escalation. We don't want to see an inciting of tensions. But to this point, Iran's actions do not meet its purported words.

SCIUTTO: It's been two weeks now since the American citizen Aysenur Eygi was shot and killed by Israeli military action, Israeli forces in the West Bank.

Has the U.S. received any update on Israel's own stated investigation of the shooting death? PATEL: That investigation, to our knowledge, is still ongoing and I, of course, will let Israel officials speak to their own process. As they indicated publicly, there is a criminal inquiry ongoing and we're going to let that process play out. Outside of that process, though, Jim, you heard the president, you heard the secretary of state be very clear that this incident, again makes clear that it is high time that there is a closer look at the rules of engagement from the security services in the West Bank.

There is no reason someone's life should be in harms way when there are simply protesting, when they're simply peacefully protesting, demonstrating, making their point of view heard. There's no reason anyone's life should be in threat for that.

SCIUTTO: Vedant Patel, we appreciate your taking the time this afternoon.

PATEL: Jim, good to be with you.

SCIUTTO: Coming up this hour, new information into the mentality of the man suspected in the second assassination attempt of Donald Trump.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:21:04]

SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

The man suspected in an assassination attempt at Donald Trump's golf course will remain behind bars. A Florida judge ruled denying Ryan Routh bail just moments ago, citing the evidence against him as strong. Prosecutors say, Routh left behind a letter admitting to his assassination plan for the former president.

CNN's Randi Kaye is in West Palm Beach with more.

And this letter seems to take any that question of just how far this man was willing to go.

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, absolutely, Jim. He said this was an assassination attempt on the former president's life. And if he had failed, he called on others to, quote, finish the job, even offering $150,000 to anyone who could do so.

So that's what was in that letter. That was presented as part of the evidence from federal prosecutors today in court. They said there was only one reason and one reason only why Ryan Routh was here in Palm Beach County and that was to assassinate Donald Trump.

As part of the evidence, they also presented. They said that the agent, the Secret Service agent, who they say encountered Ryan Routh on the golf course after seeing that the barrel of the rifle through the fence, they said that the defendant was in a position that provided a clear line of fire, Jim, to the sixth full putting green.

Now remember, Donald Trump was on the fifth poll putting green at the time in court. Prosecutor said that would have put him just about 12 to 15 minutes from the sixth hole, putting green. And if he had reached that putting green on the sixth hole, he would have been about 100 feet from Ryan Routh in that, in the bushes where he allegedly was also they had new information about the weapon then at the scene there was as we know, with scope on the rifle that was recovered there, that scope, according to prosecutors, was attached by electrical tape. And on that electrical tape they say preliminary findings show a fingerprint that prosecutors say belongs to Ryan Routh.

A couple of other quick things they did search his car, they found six cell phones and on one of those cell phones, they say was it Google search for how to get from Palm Beach County to Mexico. Also, cell phone data tracked Ryan Routh, they say and put him here in Florida as of August 14, that would have put him in this area around Mar-a-Lago and around the Trump International Golf Club for about a month, they say that his cell phone pinged on several of the cell phone towers in the area.

And finally, Jim, there was a handwritten list of dates and venues that they found that they say Ryan Routh wrote and those dates and venues were four events that Donald Trump was having leading up to election day -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: And you said they also found a letter to "The New York Times"?

KAYE: Yeah. This was something that we hadn't heard about until court today, and FBI agent testified and he brought it up in his testimony. And apparently the letter was found at the scene, addressed to "The New York Times", and they tested it for DNA and fingerprints and what they didn't find was a fingerprint belonging to Ryan Routh, yet. They are still analyzing it, but they did find a fingerprint belonging to somebody else. Now they would not say in court who that fingerprint belong to or what that letter said.

SCIUTTO: Notable evidence.

Randi Kaye, thanks so much.

Coming up, a deal has been struck, but the clock is still ticking to get a spending bill through Congress, avoiding another U.S. government shutdown on the first of the month. What is in and what's out of that potential agreement, just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:27:31]

SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in the U.S. right now where he is expected to present his proposed plan to defeat Russia to President Joe Biden. On Sunday, in a post on social media before arriving in this country, Zelenskyy said he believes this fall will determine the future of the war in Ukraine.

Joining us now with more on Zelenskyy's visit at the U.N. General Assembly, CNN senior U.N. correspondent Richard Roth.

Richard, listen, there are a number of issues that members are going to be discussing there at the -- at the U.N. behind you, including, of course, tensions in the Middle East. But I wonder on Ukraine, is there any sense as to what the broad outlines are, Zelenskyy's proposed plan to win the war?

RICHARD ROTH, CNN SENIOR U.N. CORRESPONDENT: No, we haven't seen it. He's going to appear at the Security Council tomorrow afternoon and its special meeting on Ukraine, perhaps we will get a preview there. Zelenskyy on Sunday visiting an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania and to thank the people there for providing the weapons and he will keep up that entre of we need long-range missiles, we need a whole run of ammunition to stop Russia.

But Ukraine and Gaza representing two major wars, I can't remember that happening during a general assembly annual meeting.

SCIUTTO: No question. So tell me about what the back-and-forth has been like there on the crisis in the Middle East right now and the escalation there?

ROTH: Well, these are diplomats, but they, we know that Jordan and Egypt are asking for a new U.N. Security Council meeting on the Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon. There have been meetings almost daily on the Palestinian question, which variously unfolds into a discussion about what Israel is doing. The secretary general of the U.N. says he's very concerned gravely concerned about what has been happening to the people, the women, the children, civilians in southern Lebanon.

But it's still a lot of talk okay which will not surprise you because we have various interests among the big powers. Russia with its veto stops anything on Ukraine, the U.S. with its veto stopped anything against Israel.

SCIUTTO: That's an evergreen analysis, sadly. Richard Roth at the UNGA, thanks so much.

Well, in just one week, the U.S. government could shut down despite a potential deal proposed. Now to avoid it, House Speaker Mike Johnson laid out a plan to his members yesterday intends to bring it up for a vote this week. This comes after he failed to pass a six-month funding extension, which also included the SAVE Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register, to vote in federal elections.

[15:30:00]

CNN's Annie Grayer is on Capitol Hill with the latest on the negotiations.

And, Annie, you've covered the Hill long after to wonder why this is always a battle trying to get these funding bills apart. But we know it's partly driven by the tiny majority that Republicans have in that right flank. What's going to take to get it across the finish line this time?

ANNIE GRAYER, CNN REPORTER: Well, I just caught up with House Speaker Mike Johnson and he told me he is working to get as many Republicans on board with this plan as possible. But as we've seen since this text mount yesterday, there is bipartisan support for this plan of just extending government funding until September 20. It's also going to have $230 million for secret service after the two apparent assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump.

So there is bipartisan support in both chambers to make this happen and avoid a government shutdown -- government shutdown before September 30, which is about getting these wheels in motion to me move fast enough ahead of this deadline.

SCIUTTO: All right. You'll be there to tell us.

Annie Grayer, thanks so much. Hope the nights aren't too late.

Well, while election day is 43 days away, voters are already casting their ballots in many states, both candidates continue to campaign, particularly in swing states this week calculating every vote will be critical. Polls continue to show no clear statistical leader.

New polling from "The New York Times"/Siena finds Trump ahead now in three key Sun Belt swing states, within the margin of error though in Georgia and North Carolina. There were some other polling this weekend.

Republican strategist, Shermichael Singleton, co-founder of Lift our Voices and Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky, join me now.

I want to ask you both this question because listen if there has been a lot of polling coming across the transom and in the last several days and weeks. In general, we've seen a shift towards Harris in most of the polls, not all of them. And we always have stayed the polls with a grain of salt.

But even in some of the election models and I wonder, ill begin with you, Julie, if you agree, the election has shifted, perhaps in her favor, or do you still see it as a tossup?

JULIE ROGINSKY, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think the momentum clearly is with her and has really been since the Democratic convention is certainly after the debate but you know, I would take all of these polls with a grain of salt.

You are making a tremendous amount of assumptions about who's turning out in these polls, who the likely voter cohort is in these polls. And as somebody who sat through, I don't know how many polling presentations has been involved in multiple campaigns, I can tell you more and more, it is almost impossible for pollsters to now predict accurately who is turning out.

And more importantly, even if they're able to understand who is turning out accurately how to get those people to respond to polls that is just factually impossible to do. And so I wouldn't put too much stock in any one poll or even in ongoing cohorts and polls like this. We're going to know much more when we see where these early voting patterns are coming from. And that will give you much more detailed granularly than any poll you're going to see.

SCIUTTO: Shermichael, you agree with that? And you also agree the real focus should be on pulling patterns where people are turning out registrations, et cetera.

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: And, look, the methodology for polling is pretty old. It's outdated newly knows as well, having spent a lot of time on campaigns, we haven't really updated with technology.

And there's some individuals who are trying to figure out, I think some folks at MIT and Harvard in particular, research scientist, data scientists essentially trying to figure out how do we change or reconfigure the polling models to be more accurate, to have a larger pool of people with technology. And can you do that in a way that minimizes the margin of error?

We haven't quite gotten there yet, but I'm excited to see where that research goes with that said though I do think its how are early in my opinion to figure that out, you need to see what the voting numbers are. Some of those early battleground states, we know that people are beginning to vote early now.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

SINGLETON: And so those numbers will at least give us an indication of the enthusiasm, what people are sort of thinking. And that may give an idea of who is performing well and who isn't performing well.

SCIUTTO: Okay, so to that point, voting is I noted already underway Virginia has seen record in-person early voter turnout more than 50,000 people have already voted according to the Virginia department of elections.

I wonder, Julie, does a big turnout in your view tend to favor one party over another or does it really depends on state to state?

ROGINSKY: Well, historically, of course, Democrats have voted early and Republicans have voted Election Day, same-day voting. Now, part of that is because Donald Trump four years ago really discouraged people from coming out early. He's kind of come off of that more recently, but certainly that's still ingrain in Republicans' minds that early voting is not the way to go, I think foolishly for their own purposes that's that he's convinced them of that.

And so, I think all of that is something to bear in mind, but its also the fact that there are people who have requested absentee ballots, vote-by-mail ballots, and some of these states and you have to figure out who it is that has requested those ballots and how quickly they're returning those ballots. Not enough to request them. You also have to make sure that you return them. And if you've requested them and have not returned them, can you vote on Election Day, and what happens?

[15:35:01]

You know, that gets into all the technicality. So the reality is that kind of data to me is much more interesting and we will know much more about that in the next weeks, a couple of weeks, I would say, 10 days to two weeks in some of these states, and certainly, we will know from any polling that we've seen because the polling will fluctuate.

Look, we will see a poll very soon that will show that she's leading -- Kamala Harris is leading in Georgia or she's leaving Arizona.

SCIUTTO: Right.

ROGINSKY: I would take all of that with a big grain of salt.

SCIUTTO: Okay. We'll bring you back when you have more on that.

(LAUGHTER)

SCIUTTO: All right. Let's talk about the debates, because now Trump is saying, and he's come up with a new explanation for this. He says it's too late to participate in a debate because people are already voting.

I wonder, Shermichael, I'll begin with you, is the simplest read here that he calculates as most of those who watched the debate and as too a large number of Republican commentators who watched that debate that he lost that debate and it might lose, one, might lose it again?

SINGLETON: I mean, look, he certainly didn't perform as well as I would have preferred. But 57 percent of people said that they didn't really make -- you know, their minds weren't changed by that debate.

SCIUTTO: Why doesn't he debating?

SINGLETON: And I don't think he should. I think the risk if I'm advising him are too high, particularly that close to November, you want to avoid that now.

I do want to touch on quickly though, early registration and voting early, there are some ancillary Republican groups and organizations that actually do recognize the importance of engaging those low propensity voters. Those are the voter blocs that the former president performs exceptionally well with particularly, Jim, among men of color, Latino men, black men. You're seeing that in the data.

There are also following up with those voters to make sure that they follow through and vote and some curious to see if this sort a robust -- this robust operation that we're seeing from outside groups bodes well for the former president, we did see this in 2016.

SCIUTTO: Right.

SINGLETON: We also then see it in 2020. So I think that may make a difference. You're not really seeing that in the polling data because most of those low propensity disengaged voters, they don't talk to pollsters. And so, we have no idea with a mathematical implications could be.

SCIUTTO: I get that, and I want to actually, I want to ask -- I want to get to that, Julie, with you to your view of what -- who's got the ground game advantage this time. But before I do, I'm just curious the same question about the debate is it as simple as saying Donald Trump is scared to debate again?

ROGINSKY: He's intimidated by strong women. You know, this is the guy it's just time and time and time again. He is intimidated by strong women. He was already to debate any time, any place, even after early voting began, when Joe Biden was on the ballot, all of a sudden, Kamala Harris gets in there, sticks to him really at the last debate, all we know, but the last debate we all remember as they're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

ROGINSKY: And, look, she's scared amount of doing another debate. And what does that say about Donald Trump? I mean, this is a guy with lot of bravado, but like any other bully, you punch him back once or twice and he cowers and that's why he's not going to do another debate.

SCIUTTO: On the ground game traditionally the conventional wisdom is that Democrats have the advantage, and not just conventional wisdom. It's about money, it's about personnel, et cetera. Do you see Julie Republicans catching up on that in some states based on some of these outside groups that Shermichael was talking about?

ROGINSKY: Yeah. Look, the certainly Republicans have outside money the same way Democrats do when you're coming down to what the actual campaigns can do. And there's only so much that outside groups can do in terms of contact, contacting voters, but in terms of what the actual campaigns do, I mean, if Republicans are just vastly outspent right now, and with cash on hand and other infrastructure in place.

And look, you know, everybody kind of thought it was very cute when Donald Trump put in his daughter-in-law as the head of the RNC. But the reality is, there's a reason why you have professionals -- campaign professionals at places like the DNC and the RNC because they know how to do this kind of stuff. Why you need people who actually have experienced at the state parties, they know how to do this kind of stuff. It's not an act have a loyalist. You need people actually know how to do the job.

And right now, Democrats still have people around who know how to do the jobs. And Donald Trump has Lara Trump. You know, God bless, I hope that she's not selling NFTs, she's got time to do this, but somehow I think he's got other priorities right now.

SCIUTTO: I want to talk about a quote that got a lot of attention this weekend from Trumps saying, he will not run again in 2028 if he were to lose this time, have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

INTERVIEWER: If you're not successful this time, do you see yourself running again in four years?

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I don't. No, I don't. I think that that will be -- that will be and I don't see that at all. I think that hopefully, we're going to be successful.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: We should note that memories are short. That in 2020, Trump said, if he lost to Biden, you will never see me again. Well, we are seeing him again.

Shermichael, is there any reason to believe him saying that this would be his last run if he doesn't win?

SINGLETON: He'll be 81, 82 years old. If you compete --

SCIUTTO: Not necessarily a barrier to running for public office.

SINGLETON: That's fair enough. But if you compare the number of rallies he's had this time around compared to 2016, I think it was like close to what, 80 now, I believe 24, 30. I mean, you're seeing a huge difference.

Now, I would argue its probably because he's older. Campaigning as hard as -- heck, I'm 34 and I don't miss working on campaigns anymore, Jim, let alone doing it at 78 years old.

[15:40:02]

And so I think he recognizes he's older. I think he recognizes he doesn't have the same stamina that he once had and it's okay to acknowledge that.

Look, this is my last hurrah. I'm going to give him my all. And if I don't get it across the finish line, that's it.

SCIUTTO: We'll see. Only one way to test it.

Shermichael Singleton, Julie Roginsky, thanks so much.

Our colleague Christiane Amanpour from prison, he then made an emotional plea directly to President Biden.

[15:40:06]

This time in person, he sat down with Christiane to talk about his time locked up in Iran, the release and his attempts to return now to normal life.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SIAMAK NAMAZI, RELEASED AFTER EIGHT YEARS IN IRANIAN CAPTIVITY: I remember having to set an alarm to remind myself to leave the apartment. I remember once I hadn't left for three days and I realized why. I just wasn't used to doing that. You know, so yeah, there's a lot to learn. Again, you know carrying keys, carrying a wallet, cars.

Eight years is a long, long, long time. Society changes. I felt -- I felt for my octogenarian parents are than, you know, I didn't know how to do simple things. A friend would say grab -- grab an Uber and come over and I would have to explain absolutely no idea how to do that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: It's like time travel. So good to see him out and save. You can catch Christiane's full interview with Namazi at 1:30 a.m. Eastern in the U.S. or 6:30 a.m. London time.

We're going to go take a short break now. For our international viewers, "LIVING GOLF" is next.

And if you're streaming us on Max, we will be back with more news right after the short break.

(LIVING GOLF)