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Israel Claims Nasrallah Killed. Aired 5-6a ET
Aired September 28, 2024 - 05:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Thank you for joining us. I'm Jim Sciutto, live from Tel Aviv. We begin with breaking news this morning. A claim just in the last hour by Israel that it has killed Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in southern Beirut.
Yesterday, Israel says Nasrallah was killed but Hezbollah has not yet commented. An Israeli official told CNN earlier that Nasrallah was the target of the attack. And I was told in the last 24 hours that they had very high confidence Nasrallah was on the site when the attack took place.
This comes on the heels of Israel's largest strikes on Beirut in nearly 20 years. Lebanon's news agency says Israel also launched more strikes in southern Lebanon as well as the eastern part of the country this morning.
Hezbollah says it fired more rockets into northern Israel in response. We are also hearing that some hospitals in the southern part of Beirut, an area targeted by Israel yesterday, will now be evacuated. I'm joined now by CNN's Ben Wedeman, who is in Beirut.
And Ben, we've been speaking numerous times in the last 12-24 hours or so. I wonder what the state of affairs is in Beirut right now. I have to imagine there's a great deal of fear as airstrikes continue.
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there is. All you have to do is look at the skyline behind me and see just all the areas where smoke is rising from the southern suburbs were pummeled last night and multiple airstrikes by the Israelis.
And of course, because of the warnings, Israel sent out and also simply because of the bombing, thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of people streamed out of southern Beirut and are essentially sleeping rough on the streets, wherever they could.
We saw, for instance, on local WhatsApp groups that people are desperately looking for somewhere to stay. And other places are offering places to stay, churches, mosques schools, even a football stadium have been opened for those seeking shelter.
But there doesn't seem to be any indication how long this is going to go on. Basically people saw these Twitter announcements put out by the Arabic spokesman for the Israeli military and left as quickly as they could.
But keep in mind that the southern part of Beirut and particularly some of the neighborhoods like Bourj el-Barajneh are densely populated by people who don't necessarily have the means to get out quickly. We're talking about Palestinian refugees, Syrian migrant workers, workers from South Asia and Africa.
Who don't have cars for instance, who, if they're lucky, have a motorcycle. So definitely this city has, in the last 24 hours, been severely jolted by events. Jim.
SCIUTTO: Ben, I know you've been attempting to reach your contacts within Hezbollah in the last 24 hours. That has been difficult.
What has been the reaction, if any, to Israel's announcement that Nasrallah is dead?
WEDEMAN: It depends who you talk to. And as they say, one man's freedom fighters, another man's terrorists. So there are people here in Lebanon who do not support Hezbollah; who in fact, vehemently hate them.
And so we have seen those who are actually celebrating his death and those, of course, who sincerely believe in him and his cause. So it really depends. Now because the announcement has not come from Hezbollah and it's only come from Israel, there's a certain amount of skepticism among his supporters.
Until we hear an announcement from Hezbollah. Now what's interesting is that since Monday, since those massive airstrikes, Hezbollah, which normally regularly puts out the names and dates of birth, place of birth of its fighters who are killed, has not.
It's only put out the names and pictures and whatnot of just a handful of people, most of them commanders.
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But the rank and file we're really not seeing the death notices and certainly for the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. I think they're going to do it in a certain particular way. It's not just going to be an announcement.
But until now, no word from Hezbollah, no word from my Hezbollah sources about the fate of Hassan Nasrallah, Jim.
SCIUTTO: Ben Wedeman in Beirut, thanks so much.
Also joined here in Tel Aviv by CNN's Nic Robertson, who has been covering this war since October 7th in the region for a great deal of time.
You've been speaking to Israeli officials in recent days and weeks. And one point you made to me earlier is that this assassination, the strike on Nasrallah, did not arise yesterday or two weeks ago, months ago but has been in the works for many years.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: I has. The IDF has had since 2006, the last major offensive in Lebanon, to consider how it does it and how it does it differently and it is doing it differently.
Last time there were big strikes in Beirut; this time, it has been targeted to disrupt the command and control. We saw that with the walkie-talkies, we saw that with the pagers, then the leadership, the leadership responsible for the southern border, the most threatening area to Israel.
And then the other parts of the leadership, the ones in control of the UAVs, the ones in control of the long range rockets systematically taken down and then the leadership.
And in fact, we just heard from the IDF what they called this operation to kill Hassan, Hassan Nasrallah. And I think it gives you an idea of what they think that this achieves. And they call it Operation New Order. They believe that they are inflicting a new order on Hezbollah and perhaps beyond.
But to give a sense, the audience here a sense of what does 20 years of planning look like, it means 20 years of experts studying satellite imagery, studying drone imagery, developing sources, developing spies inside of Hezbollah.
And all of that feeds into building a target list.
And then the question becomes, how do you work through that target list?
And that's what we're witnessing.
SCIUTTO: Let me ask you about -- clearly, Israel has enormous intelligence resources here and that includes surveillance.
And, of course, it has the U.S. as a partner. And oftentimes there is intelligence sharing. Although the U.S. has made quite clear they were not involved in this particular strike.
Should we presume that Israel has intelligence penetration of the group itself via human sources, given the accuracy of these strikes recently and even just the knowledge that Nasrallah was where he was, according to Israel, when they struck last night?
ROBERTSON: We should. We should assume that they have those -- developed those spies and either that's people that are disaffected with Hezbollah who want to bring it down, who can work their way into significant or useful positions inside or those that are just willing to work for money.
Then there's the electronic eavesdropping as well.
You think of the prevalence these days of all the CCTV cameras around that tie into -- tie into wi-fi networks. All of these things provide an opportunity for Israel to develop this level knowledge. And I compare it in many ways with what the British did in Northern
Ireland. They brought the IRA to its knees, that organization was fighting for unity.
They brought it to its knees and peace by infiltrating it to such a level that even the operatives these days joke about that when they got arrested, how many of them that were arrested were actually -- were actually effectively spies.
So that level of intelligence is part of what Israel has had a time to develop. I think it's worth just taking a step here and saying, OK, why didn't they do that in Gaza?
Why couldn't they have had this level of intelligence in Gaza?
Lebanon and Gaza are two entirely different things. Gaza is very sealed and it's very hard to penetrate. Lebanon is a much more mixed open environment and then therefore, you can insert spies, you can generate that information.
And that was what was lacking. That's why the IDF did not properly see what was coming in October the 7th from Hamas.
SCIUTTO: And still has not been able to strike, eliminate the Hamas leader nearly a year since the October 7th attacks. Nic Robertson, thanks so much.
We're joined now by spokesperson for the IDF, Major Doron Spielman, who joins us live from Jerusalem.
Major, thanks so much for joining us. Now I wonder if you can help shed light and, of course, I'm conscious of sensitive intelligence.
But can you help shed light on how Israel was able to locate the Hezbollah leader and strike yesterday, announcing now that that strike killed him?
MAJ. DORON SPIELMAN, SPOKESPERSON, ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES: Jim thank you for having me.
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In fact, I can confirm that, according to our reports, Nasrallah and his upper minions have been eliminated. I can tell you and what is clear is that this is the diabolical nerve center of the largest and most active terror organization in the entire world.
Hezbollah is the most funded and armed terror organization for more than 30 years. And this is in answer to your question. For more than 30 years Hezbollah has been targeting both Israeli, U.S. and European targets.
We have compiled enormous amounts of intelligence. According to foreign reports, we can see what happened two weeks ago with the beepers, followed by the walkie-talkies. These are, of course, according to foreign reports. But Israel has been focusing on this for years because we have
identified that this day could come and Hezbollah clearly is out to destroy the state of Israel. And therefore, it is the finest intelligence that has been exhibited probably in the world for a long time.
And it's simply because the greatest source of necessity is we have no choice. Just behind me, by the way, in central Israel, there was an interception, just a few minutes ago, which shows that, even though Nasrallah and his minions have been eliminated -- and that is most crucial step -- there is still far more to do with Hezbollah.
Because they're still trying to kill Israeli civilians.
SCIUTTO: You say far more to do. As you know, there have been reserved callups in recent days and there has been a buildup of some Israeli forces on the northern border.
Is the next step a ground operation or invasion of southern Lebanon?
SPIELMAN: All options are clearly on the table, Jim and, that is definitely one of them.
We have to understand that. We have no -- we're under no illusions. With all of the aerial strikes and taking out Hezbollah's leadership, there are more than 30,,000-40,000 -- way more -- terrorists that have been trained and financed by Iran that are most likely holing themselves up underground in numerous locations, including inside of homes.
And therefore, we cannot allow a situation, where all of these people can press a red button, fire a missile from a living room and target my family or my neighbor's family within seconds. And so therefore it may be necessary. We will take whatever directive the political leadership gives us.
What I can tell you is, under no circumstances, is Israel going to stop eliminating and fighting Hezbollah until all of the residents of northern Israel can go back to their homes, whatever it takes. That's what we are going to do.
SCIUTTO: The level, the size of this strike was enormous, leveling several buildings.
Has Israel made any effort to calculate civilian casualties?
And is it undergoing such an effort right now?
Do you have any estimate of the number of civilians killed in the strike?
SPIELMAN: So I can tell you that, in every strike that we've carried out, we've been meticulous in evaluating civilian casualties. There was another strike that took place two hours after this in critical infrastructure that was aimed at Israeli critical infrastructure that could have wreaked enormous havoc in Israel. And we gave warning to the civilians in that area to move hours and
hours in advance, keeping in mind that, when those civilians move out of the way, those terrorists flee as well.
When from an operational perspective, we can give notification to civilians, we do everything we can. But when you have pinpointed leadership and you need the element of surprise, obviously, we take that into account.
But even there, as you can see in the actions of the previous weeks -- and we'll be releasing more information about what happened this morning -- we have been using whatever sources we have to try to do this when there are minimal civilian casualties.
I'll just put this in perspective, that every rocket that Hezbollah is firing against Israel is in gat (ph) civilians. And so therefore, there really is an unfair playing field here. But at the end of the day, we have no choice.
This will protect Israeli civilians. And long-term, Jim, this is going to be protecting Lebanese civilians, who are also under this terrorist regime, which is called Hezbollah, and has been led by Nasrallah for over 30 years.
SCIUTTO: How can Lebanese civilians believe that statement though, given -- and I know Israel has not confirmed what weapons were used in this strike -- but weapons experts CNN has spoken to, they make the judgment it was most likely 2000 pound bombs, perhaps bunker buster bombs.
But how is it meticulous to use weapons of that size when you see the level of destruction all around?
The images of Ground Zero in terms of the size of this strike?
SPIELMAN: Look, I can tell you the Lebanese civilians themselves, there have been numerous Lebanese civilians that have had the courage to express what is most likely the will of the vast majority of Lebanese civilians, which is that they don't want Hezbollah in their lives.
Lebanon was a country that Israel pulled out of 24 years ago. The Lebanese people had an opportunity to build an incredible, incredible nation for themselves.
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One based on tourism and natural resources. And when Hezbollah moved into the scene, all of those people were either forced or tortured in order to put Hezbollah weapons in their living rooms. So we've heard a few courageous ones come online.
And I think they're under no illusions that, while this is difficult and Hezbollah is hiding behind civilians and, unfortunately, there are civilian casualties, they will be better off without Nasrallah and their minions and Hezbollah. And I will just add one more thing, that, over the last 12 months, as
you know, Jim, as we've been reporting this, you've been reporting this from the very beginning, while 9,000 rockets have been fired and suicide drones at Israel, the world community did not utter a peep. No peep of having a ceasefire or anything else.
Nor did the world step up and say, let's get rid of Hezbollah. They're torturing Lebanese civilians. All of a sudden Israel begins an offensive, which could have happened months ago, were not for our patience. And the world now wants a ceasefire.
This is time that the world turns on the moral barometer and says, Hezbollah has to go for Israel, for the West and also for the people of Lebanon.
SCIUTTO: About that ceasefire, because, as you know, the U.S., the U.S. President, Antony Blinken put enormous diplomatic resources in attempting to get to an agreement on a ceasefire among the parties involved.
And in fact just before this strike took place, the Israeli prime minister in New York seemed to walk back some of his earlier dismissal of those negotiations.
I wonder, does Israel have any interest in ceasefire negotiations?
And given the reaction of U.S. officials who have made quite clear they were not involved in this strike and didn't get any notice really until the Israeli jets were in the air, was this strike done over U.S. objections?
SPIELMAN: So Jim, as you know, on the political level, there's a lot of back-and-forth.
The United States is the greatest ally and friend of the people of Israel and everyone in Israel knows this. There's no doubt. However I will say this.
Unless you live with Hezbollah on your border and you have Hezbollah attacking you, I don't think you can imagine what it is like to have this type of enemy actively hitting and targeting your population and people fleeing from their homes.
I know in the U.S. right now there's a power outage that has left millions of people without power. And that is a horrible thing.
The northern part of our country, these people don't have power.
It's not that they've lost power. They've lost their entire homes. And so therefore, any type of ceasefire from a military perspective that would not allow our people to go back to their homes and our country not to be under a constant barrage, including the interception that happened over our head, is -- it's untenable.
And I don't think anyone in the world would even consider this. That's the position of the Israeli army and our political leadership has also reflected the will of the people, which is our people just want to go home. We want peace in our country.
We didn't start this war but it has to end. And the terms have to be that Israel can live in peace throughout all of its borders.
SCIUTTO: Major Doron Spielman, spokesperson for the IDF. Thanks so much for joining us.
SPIELMAN: Thank you, Jim, for having me.
SCIUTTO: Our Nic Robertson with me again, here.
One thing that stood out to me from the IDF spokesperson comments there was that all options are on the table when I asked him about the possibility of an Israeli ground invasion following this.
We've seen some preparations, call up of reservists, some buildup of forces, not clear that there's a critical mass of forces there necessary to go in.
But based on your conversations with Israeli officials, is that just a matter of when?
ROBERTSON: I think it's a matter of when. But I think their determination would be on what Hezbollah does next. The narrative from Israel, it's very, very clear that they want Hezbollah to pull back from the border and so that their citizens can return home.
This is their stated goal. And one way to achieve that is to make sure that there is no Hezbollah along the border because what has happened and what -- when we go to the border, we go with local people who live there.
Or we go with the IDF. They show us the houses that were once their homes of Lebanese civilians. And they say, look, those houses now, they have been taken over by Hezbollah. We know, we can show you the video of an RPG, a shoulder launched rocket, that you can easily walk into a building and pop it off and fire, fire from the window.
And they show us where it's impacted and the homes that have been damaged or destroyed inside of Israel. So what they will be looking at -- and this is the conversation that I have is making sure that can't happen.
So the question then becomes, how do you do that?
One way to do that is to essentially create a buffer zone inside of south Lebanon, a kilometer wide, two kilometers wide.
And then the question becomes, how do you do that?
Well, Israel and the public at the moment have suffered significant losses within the military. The military has fought a very hard campaign in Gaza. There is, among some reservists -- they don't particularly want to go back into battle again after three or four tours unless it's really necessary.
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So the government will be very aware of that, of that sentiment. This is undoubtedly a sentiment that the IDF, its commanders, the defense minister, will have communicated to the government. We heard from the -- we heard from the defense minister a few weeks ago, saying this wasn't the time to have an offensive in Lebanon with Hezbollah.
So all of that, then that's a long answer to the right question to ask right now. It could be a big set of airstrikes and artillery along the border with troops, then going in to mop up. That would be the most likely scenario. It's not clear that it's going to happen immediately.
But --
SCIUTTO: Listen, Israel's experience of ground operations in Lebanon has been a difficult and bloody one, from '82 to 2000 but also in the 2006 war. And Israeli public quite aware of that as well.
Nic Robertson, thanks so much.
We're going to go now back to Beirut. CNN's Ben Wedeman there.
And Ben, you heard me ask the IDF spokesperson about any estimate of civilian casualties from the strike that Israel now says killed Nasrallah. They say they don't have an estimate yet.
Have you heard any additional casualty reports there from the ground?
WEDEMAN: Not since late last night, when the ministry of health was saying six people killed, 91 wounded. But clearly the death toll is going to rise from certainly that massive strike that the Israelis claim killed Hassan Nasrallah.
But the variety of strikes that happened afterwards, so we haven't heard yet. But certainly, I mean, it's not -- there's no question about it. And with, of course, the problem is that the strike took place. They wanted it 6:00 pm local time in south Beirut, which, in this (INAUDIBLE) morning was repeatedly struck by Israel.
So it's questionable how possible it is to even maintain rescue crews and equipment on the scene under those circumstances, given that so many people have fled that part of town -- Jim.
SCIUTTO: Ben Wedeman in Beirut. Thanks so much.
Joining us now from Washington is Firas Maksad. He's senior director for strategic outreach, a senior fellow as well at the Middle East Institute for us.
Thanks so much for joining us.
FIRAS MAKSAD, DIRECTOR OF OUTREACH, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: (INAUDIBLE).
SCIUTTO: This region, as you know, has been on pins and needles back to October 7th regarding the prospect of a broader multifront or regional war.
And I wonder, do you believe that this strike, as well as the strikes that preceded it and followed it, puts the region on exactly that path?
Or perhaps are we there already?
MAKSAD: Well, Jim, pending confirmation from Hezbollah that, in fact, its secretary general has been killed today, clearly the hinge of history has turned.
The attack, the unprecedented nature of the attack, scale, scope clearly answers that question, that many of us who've been watching, what is essentially been largely a border conflict that, horrible as it's been for the better part of a year since October 7th, that the threshold to an all-out war has been crossed today with this assassination.
Or at least attempted assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. So for Lebanon and Israel, this is a whole new ballgame, a whole new era. But also for the region because Nasrallah was not only just a leader in Lebanon, obviously, his influence far -- went far beyond Lebanon.
Hezbollah became Iran's primary asset outside of its border on the Mediterranean, on Israel's northern front but also its trainer for proxies in Syria fighting that war on behalf of Bashar al Assad and pretty much salvaging the regime there after the uprising in 2011 in Iraq with the militias there, with the Houthis in Yemen.
So this is an assassination that is, that far, that exceeds Lebanon's border in terms of the likely implication.
And if early reports are in fact true, that senior Iranian general (INAUDIBLE) at that bumper (ph) as well as headquarters and have also been killed along with Hassan Nasrallah, then we definitely have to anticipate some kind of an Iranian response or involvement in the coming reaction.
SCIUTTO: Let me ask you about Iran because there is a school of thought here that Iran is keeping its powder dry, as it were, does not want a regional war itself, does not want to tempt an Israeli attack on Iran, most notably any of its nuclear facilities and, therefore, might hold its fire.
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But I wonder, do you buy that argument, given the point you just made, that not only is the leader of one of its powerful proxies, arguably its most powerful proxy in the region, now dead but the possibility that this strike killed senior Iranian commanders as well?
MAKSAD: I mean, that's the challenge of Iran's calculus. In fact, it's been the challenge of Hezbollah's calculus, too, since the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. On one hand, it wants to establish or, at this point, reestablish deterrence against Israel, given the fact that Israel has held escalation dominance all throughout.
Israel has been more willing to escalate this conflict and go and cross beyond that total war threshold than Iran and Hezbollah for various reasons, including Iran's historic reference for taking the fight to Israel using proxies, all these proxies.
That ring of fire, that it's established around Israel through Hezbollah being its crown jewel in Lebanon but also the Houthis in Yemen, the militias in Iraq and Syria, knowing very well that, in a direct confrontation with Israel, Israel is much more militarily superior and sophisticated to Iran.
So I expect that, as the Iranian leadership contemplates this need to reestablish deterrence versus avoid an all-out direct confrontation with Israel, that there will probably be a preference for bringing in the range of Iranian proxies in the region.
So attack and the responses from Syria or Iraq, Yemen but also from Lebanon. And if Hamas, I mean, Hamas is also part of that Iranian axis, has any ability to also punch, then we can also expect that to be part of this regional reaction to the assassination.
SCIUTTO: Where does this leave the relationship between the Israeli prime minister and President Biden?
And more broadly, the relationship between Israel and the U.S., given that the U.S. was in the midst of a high-profile effort to engineer a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and other parties involved and this strike happens?
And there was a quite deliberate effort, including among U.S. officials that I spoke to, to put distance between this strike and the U.S.
MAKSAD: Yes, Jim, no doubt significant daylight between the U.S. administration and Israel on this. And I know it's something that's very hard for people in the region to believe.
Most people in the Middle East believe that there's collusion one way or another, the administration and Israel playing different roles here.
But in fact, I mean, talking to senior administration officials, there was this attempt in the previous days to this Hail Mary effort, last- ditch effort, to try and get a 21 day ceasefire and try to get Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to even provide Hassan Nasrallah a fig leaf on Gaza.
And pretexts that come down from the tree, so to speak, because Hassan Nasrallah and Iran had very much sort of premised a ceasefire in Lebanon on the ability to get a ceasefire in Gaza.
Though the administration officials were hoping that, at the U.N. speech, Benjamin Netanyahu would say something to the effect that all major operations in Gaza have been completed and maybe even declare victory, which would then allow movement toward a ceasefire in Lebanon, this 21 day reprieve.
Instead, it's clear now that Bibi Netanyahu decided to literally go for the kill.
SCIUTTO: Yes. In fact, far from, far from that statement, that U.S. officials might have been expected there. Firas Maksad, thanks so much for joining us.
Still ahead, we continue to cover the aftermath of this major Israeli strike in Beirut as it continues to unfold. Israel has said the strike killed Hezbollah's long-time, three decades long leader, along with other top commanders. Our breaking news coverage continues right after a short break, please stay with us.
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SCIUTTO: Welcome back to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Jim Sciutto, live in Tel Aviv, and this is CNN NEWSROOM. More now on the breaking news here in the Middle East.
Israel's military now says that a major airstrike on Beirut on Friday has killed the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. The Iran-backed militant group has not yet commented. This comes after the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut his visit short to the U.N. in New York.
He left the gathering of world leaders a day early on Friday evening as Israel continued to carry out other strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. But it was not before Netanyahu delivered a combative speech to the U.N. General Assembly.
In his opening remarks, he said he wanted to defend against what he called, quote, "lies and slander," and he addressed Israel's ongoing fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: Would war with Hezbollah, which has hijacked your country and threatens to destroy ours, as long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice.
And Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely. And that's exactly what we're doing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: Many in the audience there at the U.N. General Assembly were not interested in listening to the Israeli prime minister's speech. A large number of delegates walked out and the jeers just as the Israeli prime minister took the stage. CNN's Jeremy Diamond, he is standing by in northern Israel, in Haifa.
And Jeremy, I wonder, you've been up there for some time and multiple times since the October 7 attacks.
Have you seen any uptick in missile and rocket strikes from Lebanon into northern Israel since this Israeli strike, that it now says killed the Hezbollah leader?
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: There were several barrages of rockets being fired from by Hezbollah into northern Israel in the wake of the Israeli military's announcement that it has killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader.
But certainly nothing of the kind of barrages that we have anticipated seeing in the event of a large-scale operation.
Israeli officials for months now have been telling me that, should things really escalate with Hezbollah, they anticipated that Hezbollah would be firing hundreds of rockets simultaneously, perhaps thousands of rockets a day in order to try and overwhelm Israel's air defense systems, including the Iron Dome.
And we simply have not yet seen that, neither in the wake of this strike in Beirut, that the Israeli military says killed Hassan Nasrallah, nor over the course of the last week-and-a-half.
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As we have seen one escalatory action after another being carried out by the Israeli military in Lebanon, including multiple strikes now in the Lebanese capital of Beirut. And certainly part of that has to do with the fact that that Israeli military has dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah over the course of these last two weeks.
We know that Nasrallah not only is his death, if indeed it is confirmed by Hezbollah as well, not only is this an earth-shattering moment in this nearly year-long conflict but it's not just his death alone.
We have seen over the course of the last year, as Israel has killed the majority of Hezbollah's leadership and certainly over the course of the last two weeks, multiple senior Hezbollah commanders have been killed by the Israeli military.
And so this must be an organization in disarray, an organization that is scrambling to figure out its next move and one where I expect that we will see Iran, which has financed and supported Hezbollah for decades now, likely going to play a much, much larger role.
SCIUTTO: It's a big question and this has been the fear going back to October 7 and perhaps earlier.
Does this erupt into a larger regional war?
Jeremy Diamond in Haifa, please keep your team and yourself safe. Let's bring in Jasmine el-Gamal. She's a Middle East analyst, former
Middle East adviser for the U.S. Defense Department. She joins us now, live from London.
Jasmine, thanks so much for joining.
JASMINE EL-GAMAL, FORMER MIDDLE EAST ADVISER FOR U.S. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT: Good to see you, Jim.
SCIUTTO: Jasmine, with this strike, do we now have the ingredients for the broader regional conflict that so many have feared?
EL-GAMAL: I think this could really go one of two ways, right. Now, with the Israelis, based on the successive actions against Hezbollah over the last few months, have, you know, fairly strongly neutralized Hezbollah from a communications perspective after the pager attack.
And now from a leadership perspective, through the assassination of successive senior commanders, now with this frankly shocking assassination of Nasrallah as well.
The question is, are they going to now go in, in a ground invasion, to try to neutralize the organization militarily?
As you know, Hezbollah has tens of thousands of fighters in Lebanon. They have a large military arsenal that is still intact.
And so is Israel going to see this as just a prelude to a ground invasion to really finish the organization off once and for all?
Or is it going to back down and say this is enough for now?
And, of course, on the other end, in the short term, there's the reaction from Hezbollah and from Iran as well.
Are they going to see this as a need to go in and try to restore any semblance of deterrence they have left?
Or are they going to retreat, lick their wounds, regroup and try to figure out their next step?
So it could go one of two ways.
SCIUTTO: It -- you say finished the organization off. But Israel's experience in Gaza, a much smaller group in terms of the size of Hamas, much smaller territory, even after a year of fighting there, while depleted, Hamas is not finished off.
Lebanon, Hezbollah, as well, a much larger target. Israel has tried this before; 18 years of occupation from '82 to 2000 in Lebanon as well as the 2006 war, in which it took enormous losses.
And while it imposed losses on Hezbollah, Hezbollah lived another day.
I just wonder, is that goal of elimination actually a realistic one? EL-GAMAL: I'm really glad you asked that question, Jim, because that
was going to be my next point, which is about the longer term implications of this.
I mean, obviously in terms of going in and finishing the job, I'm speaking from an Israeli perspective of what they would want to do.
But is that in fact actually possible?
Now Hassan Nasrallah is not going to be mourned and nor should he. He was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Syrians. He has held Lebanese hostage for decades. So he's certainly not going to be mourned.
But if we look at it just from an organizational perspective, it's exactly like you said. In fact, we have to remember that Hassan Nasrallah's predecessor Abbas al-Musawi, he was also assassinated by Israel. And that brought in Hassan Nasrallah as leader.
And so we cannot take it for granted that these assassinations, whether it's Ismail Haniyeh in Iran or even if it were to be Sinwar, that these assassinations are actually going to make Israel safer in the long run.
And that's not even mentioning the vast collateral damage that we've seen just in the last several days with the attempts to get Nasrallah and other senior commanders of the Lebanese.
[05:40:00]
So lots of conflict, lots of damage being done.
But is it actually making Israel safer in the long run?
And like you, when you look at history, it doesn't tell us that that is the case.
SCIUTTO: I want to ask you about the U.S. relationship with Israel before we go. One could reasonably read this strike as the Israeli prime minister's answer to U.S. efforts to get the sides to a ceasefire.
Do you see election timing as part of this, that the Israeli prime minister identifies a window here before the U.S. election, in which you have, in effect, a lame duck U.S. president and you have one of two outcomes, either a Harris victory that he might perceive restricts his options going forward, or a Trump victory?
That Netanyahu might perceive gives him, would give him further carte blanche to do what he wants to do.
Is Netanyahu playing the U.S. political situation right now to some degree?
EL-GAMAL: Well, I mean, Netanyahu has always played the U.S. political system and he's bragged about it openly. It's no secret that he says, that he says himself, he knows how to manipulate the Americans, that the Americans are easily manipulated.
But I think more to the point, Jim, is that the -- Netanyahu basically has seen that there will be no consequences to his actions from the Biden administration. The Biden administration has been saying for months that they're very angry at Netanyahu, very frustrated with Netanyahu. But they don't really do anything about it.
They sent the U.S. envoy, Amos Hochstein, to the region to try to get to a ceasefire. He's ignored. It's almost embarrassing really for the Americans. And so if you were in Netanyahu's shoes, you would do the same exact thing.
You would see that you have carte blanche to do whatever you want in the region, that there are no real consequences from the Americans. They seem completely impotent diplomatically, while at the same time enabling the war by continuing to fund and arm Israel.
So Netanyahu is doing what anyone would do in his position, which is to keep driving forward. Now the damage that that's doing, as we've said before, both in Lebanon and in Gaza, is immense.
And whether a new administration, whether it's Trump or Kamala Harris, will able to roll back some of that damage and salvage any semblance of peace in the region remains to be seen.
Because if you -- I mean, as we know, the U.S. president, no matter who wins in November, doesn't take office until January. So we effectively have until there -- until the end of the year. We have a Biden administration.
And if we look at what it's been doing so far and what it's not been doing so far, I don't see any reason to believe that, all of a sudden, they're going to step in and stop Netanyahu in his tracks. One hopes that they will.
But we haven't seen any indication that they're willing to do so. Maybe after the election. But I'm not sure.
SCIUTTO: Yes. You're right, that that timeline extends beyond the election, right up to Inauguration Day. Jasmine el-Gamal, thanks so much for joining.
EL-GAMAL: Thanks, Jim.
SCIUTTO: Please do stay with CNN for breaking news, CNN for breaking news coverage of Israel's killing. It now says it has killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a massive strike in Beirut yesterday.
We'll have more in just a moment.
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SCIUTTO: I'm Jim Sciutto live in Tel Aviv, returning to our breaking news that we're following this morning. Israel says that Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is dead. Israel says he was killed in yesterday's Israeli strike in Beirut. Hezbollah has not yet commented.
An Israeli official told CNN earlier Nasrallah was the target. And I was told by a former senior Israeli official that they had high confidence Nasrallah was at the site at the time of the strike.
This comes on the heels of Israel's worst, most massive strikes on Beirut in nearly 20 years. The Lebanese news agency says Israel has launched more strikes in the south and east of the country this morning.
Hezbollah says it has fired more rockets into northern Israel. We are also hearing that some hospitals in the southern part of Beirut, an area which Israel targeted yesterday, will be evacuated.
For more on the effects of this strike, what comes next, we're joined now by Fawaz Gerges. He's professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
Fawaz, thanks so much for joining us.
FAWAZ GERGES, DIR. MIDDLE EAST CENTER, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Thanks.
SCIUTTO: I wonder if we could begin here on where this strike as well as previous strikes, including the massive pager attack, leaves Hezbollah.
Is it a functioning military organization at this point?
Is it capable of retaliation?
GERGES: Well, I mean, I think what we have seen now is that Hezbollah has suffered heavy operational psychological blows. It seems to me that Israel has infiltrated the decision-making process of Hezbollah.
It has inflicted major, major kills against Hezbollah leaders in a way, I would say, based on what we know, is that Hezbollah now is off balance. It's rattled. I wonder whether its command and control is still functioning.
The reason why we have not really seen major strategic retaliation on the part of Hezbollah, because they're trying to put their house in order. They're trying to really find ways and means to basically put their command and control and basically management, better management.
But the situation, as you know, Israel is going for the kill. Look, I think we need to connect the dots, Jim, here. This is not about killing Hassan Nasrallah and we have not heard from Hezbollah yet.
This is not about assassinating individual commanders. I think the big picture is the prime minister, Israel prime minister, has declared all-out war not only against Hezbollah but against the entire axis of resistance and in particular against Iraq.
Yesterday in his speech at the United Nations, he basically threatened Iran by saying there is no target in Iran that we cannot reach.
So beyond, even if Hezbollah has been killed, as Israel how does, this is really a new situation.
It's all-out war now, not just between Hezbollah and Israel but between Israel and the entire axis of resistance.
SCIUTTO: So let me ask you about what you think or how you think Iran might respond here.
[05:50:00]
Because as you'll remember, Iran's massive missile and drone strike on Israel in April, attempted strike, I suppose I should say, was largely neutralized. The vast majority of those missiles and drones shot down before they reached their target.
Is Iran at all reluctant to strike, questioning whether it has the ability to do so in a convincing way?
GERGES: Of course, Jim. Iran is not just reluctant, Iran is anxious and terrified of providing a justification for Benjamin Netanyahu to attack its nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly made it very clear.
It does not really want all-out war either with Israel and the United States. And Iran, the Iranian leaders are very anxious that Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag them into all-out war with the United States.
But again, I think we're missing the big picture and forgive me for saying so. This is not just about what Iran can do now. If my reading is correct, this is a long war. This is all-out war. We're talking about years, not days or weeks. So both Iran and Hezbollah and the entire axis of resistance now, they are biding their time.
They are trying to position themselves for the long game. And look, I mean, again, Jim, I keep saying, look, if Israel's strategic aim, to return its displaced citizens to the north, the Lebanese-Israel borders, a long war will never basically bring this about.
In fact, the Americans and the British and the French have basically pressed on Israel the need for a diplomatic solution because they realize a long war, in a long war, Israel can never have peace and security.
This is -- it will -- changes the geostrategic land escape for Israel for years to come. And if and when Israel decides to launch a ground attack, this will really drag Israel and entrap Israel in a very bleeding war as Israel has discovered in Gaza in the past 12 months.
SCIUTTO: Let me ask, before we go, about Iran and its nuclear program here, because the perception is that Iran is quite close, if it were to make a decision, to being able to assemble a nuclear weapon or several nuclear weapons.
Does this make Iran more or less likely to do so, more because it might calculate that's its only defense or less, because they might calculate that that would spark a direct Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities?
GERGES: Look, Jim, I mean, this is really the most important question, I mean, that we need to talk about. I mean, in terms of the big picture. My reading and a consensus is emerging in Iran.
And the scholars that know Iran, that this, the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah and Israel's basically arrogance and Israel's decision to really kill with impunity, will and has motivated Iranian leadership to basically weaponize their nuclear program.
What's happening now, this all-out war in the Middle East itself, will reinforce Iranians' perception that the only way for Iran to have deterrence is basically to have a nuclear defense (ph) because Israel has between 100 and 200 nuclear devices, according to American intelligence services.
The inability of the United States to restrain Israel, the willingness of the United States to arm Israel and turn it into a military fortress, the willingness of the United States to basically protect Israel, even when Israel provokes and escalate.
This war basically convinced Iranian leaders, particular the Revolutionary Guards leadership, that the only way for Iran to respond to Israel's provocation, to protect Iranian interests and Iranian security, is to really go for the tipping point.
And again, this, if this is, if this really is correct, this will change the entire geopolitical landscape and will change as the relationship between the United States and Middle Eastern state for years to come.
SCIUTTO: And one might wonder what other powers in this region decide or attempt to go nuclear. Fawaz Gerges, thanks so much for joining.
GERGES: Thanks.
SCIUTTO: All right, let's get you up to date with the latest on the continuing breaking news from Lebanon. Israel claims today it has now confirmed the death of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In a statement, the Israeli military says Nasrallah was killed in yesterday's Israeli airstrike in Beirut.
The IDF also says, though, it does not know how many civilians were killed in that attack which leveled several apartment buildings.
[05:55:05]
Hezbollah has not commented on the fate of Nasrallah. I should note the IDF has also said, quote, "this strike is not the
end of our toolbox," perhaps indicating there are other military steps to come.
While Israel was striking inside Lebanon, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu returned to Israel from New York and the U.N. General Assembly a day earlier than he had planned. He left the U.S. Friday evening just hours after delivering a speech before the U.N. General Assembly, a defiant one.
The U.S. says it has had no advance warning of the strike. U.S. officials say President Joe Biden has been briefed several times by his national security team. I should note that U.S. officials have repeatedly put distance between the U.S. and this Israeli strike on Nasrallah.
The U.S. Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, confirms the strikes were already underway when he spoke with his counterpart, the Israeli defense minister, Yoav Gallant, on Friday. He called, as many U.S. officials have been doing for several days, he called for a diplomatic solution.
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GEN. LLOYD AUSTIN, U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: What I will say is that you've heard me say a number of times that an all-out war should be avoided. Diplomacy continues to be the best way forward.
And it's the fastest way to let displaced Israeli and Lebanese citizens return turn to their homes on both sides of the border.
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SCIUTTO: Of course, it's not clear where those diplomatic efforts stand now following the strike. CNN will have more coverage of this ongoing situation in Lebanon in just a moment. For now, live from Tel Aviv, I'm Jim Sciutto. And we'll be right back.
