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Israel vows Iran to pay for Missile Attacks as Conflict Escalates; Walz, Vance Squared Off in the Vice Presidential Debate; 162 Died in the Aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired October 02, 2024 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Welcome to our viewers joining us from around the world. I'm Becky Anderson in Tel Aviv, where Israel is vowing that Iran will pay for launching a barrage of roughly 200 missiles into Israeli territory.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Rosemary Church in Atlanta, breaking down the key takeaways from the first and only U.S. vice presidential debate.

ANDERSON: Well there is fresh fighting between the Israeli military and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Less than a day after Tehran launched its largest ever aerial attack against Israel, these are live pictures from Beirut, Lebanon, where smoke is hanging over the sky.

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These were the new strikes launched overnight by the IDF against Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburbs after issuing evacuation orders for several neighborhoods. And Hezbollah have claimed to have hit back with a rocket attack on an Israeli military barracks along the Lebanese-Israeli border. And we'll get to that in a moment.

Meanwhile, both Israel and Iran are trying to control the narrative over the impact of Tehran's unprecedented attack. The commander-in- chief of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says 200 missiles were fired and that 90 percent of them hit their targets. Well the Israeli prime minister claims the attack failed but is nevertheless promising to strike back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. We will stand by the rule we established. Whoever attacks us, we will attack him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, CNN's Paula Hancocks covering all of this live from Abu Dhabi. And before we talk about the impact of those Tuesday attacks, we are getting news about an incident on the Israel-Lebanese border. What do we know at this point?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Becky, we're hearing from Hezbollah that they say that they have targeted a military barracks in northern Israel. And they also say that they've actually targeted multiple locations in that area, including actually thwarting an Israeli advance, they say, into one of the Lebanese towns, Al-Adessa, just across the border in southern Lebanon. Now, the Israeli military is not commenting at this point. They say they are still looking into it.

We have though heard from one of the main hospitals in the north of Israel, Ramban, and they say there has been what they call an incident, but they do not have updates. They can give us at this point on casualties, so we'll monitor that.

But when it comes to the Iranian attack on Israel on Tuesday night, Iran claims there were 200 missiles. They claim there was 90 percent of them that hit their target. That is being rejected outright by Israel also by the United States.

We are hearing of some damage as we did see images that appeared to show some missiles hitting. Not all of them were intercepted in the air. We know that there's homes in central Israel, for example, damaged by shockwaves from some of these attacks. About 100 houses being looked at this point.

We know that there was one person killed as well. A Palestinian was killed by this. There were a small number of injuries but Israel appears to be still assessing the damage. We do know from Iran and also from what we have seen from geo-located videos that some of the targets were air bases.

In particular, there's one in southern Israel, this is the Nevatim air base which was also targeted back in April by Iran. Now we saw a number of missiles appearing to hit in that area, no confirmation from the IDF at this point as to whether or not there is any kind of damage there.

[03:05:02]

And also, of course, the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, this has been targeted a number of times as well. So Israel is really assessing the damage at the same time as vowing that they will be retaliating. You heard there from the Prime Minister saying that Iran has made a big mistake.

The question of course is what will that retaliation look like? To give us some kind of context, we can see what the retaliation was like back in April. Now we know that the Iranian attack in April was far smaller and less damaging potentially than what we saw on Tuesday night. But back then we saw Israel targeting an area called Isfahan in Iran. This is an area where there are a number of significant Iranian nuclear facilities.

At the time it was believed to be more of a message to Tehran that they could take out their Iranian nuclear facilities should they so wish. At the time it was believed that the U.S. had convinced Israel to lower the tempo and to keep it to a limited response.

Now of course the U.S. doesn't necessarily have that power at this point to try and temper what Israel wants to do. But that is just a bit of context when we're looking at what potential response we could see from Israel. Becky?

ANDERSON: Right. Let's talk about that. Thank you, Paula. Paula Hancocks is in Abu Dhabi.

President Joe Biden says the United States remains fully supportive of Israel, but is still discussing an appropriate response to Iran's attack. Mr. Biden confirmed the U.S. is in constant contact with the Israeli government, though he hasn't personally spoken with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since August, he said.

Well, the U.S. State Department spokesperson says those conversations that are being had will continue over the coming days, but made it clear there will be consequences for Iran. Well, the U.S. President later spoke on how the attack was thwarted.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, U.S. PRESIDENT: At my direction, the United States military actively supported the defense of Israel, and we're still assessing the impact. But based on what we know now, the attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective.

And this is testament to Israeli military capability and the U.S. military. I'm also a testament to intensive planning between the United States and Israel to anticipate and defend against the brazen attack we expect. Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Malcolm Davis is a senior analyst for defense strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Joining us now live and you are keeping a keen eye on what is going on here hour by hour. I think it's important to discuss, given that the Prime Minister here has vowed a response, what the likely targets for further Israeli attacks on Iran and indeed Hezbollah might be. Let's start with Iran. What are Israel's options to your mind if it chooses to counter attack or retaliate, counter retaliate on Iran?

MALCOLM DAVIS, MILITARY ANALYST AND SR. ANALYST FOR DEFENSE STRATEGY AND CAPABILITY, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Well, look, I think there are a number of clear options in terms of Iran's military capabilities, its air bases, the locations of likely Iranian ballistic missile forces, command and control networks. All of these would be quite legitimate targets to hit. The second type of targets that could be hit would be Iranian oil

fields that could potentially undermine Iran's economy. That could generate internal unrest, which could threaten the regime's grip on power. But I think the one that everyone is kind of focusing on, quite understandably, is the nuclear facilities.

Those nuclear facilities where Iran's, supposedly, has built up sufficient fissile material that is probably one to two weeks away from having enough fissile material for a nuclear device, maybe longer to weaponize that into a deliverable weapon.

But from Israel's perspective, it cannot allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. So there would certainly be strong pressure within Netanyahu's cabinet to attack those nuclear facilities and essentially set back the Iranian nuclear weapons program potentially by years.

ANDERSON: Malcolm, what would that look like? Would it look like a traditional attack, as you might expect from the air, or as we have seen of late, the attacks on the pagers and walkie-talkies of the Hezbollah assets? Might this be something more sort of cyber- orientated, as it were? What sort of options might Israel have at this point? What sort of intelligence does it have?

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And what sort of, yeah, I mean, I guess that it's based on intelligence. What sort of action might it take?

DAVIS: Look, I think it could be both. And I think whatever Israel does do, it has to be highly visible and has to be seen to be decisive and successful. Those pager attacks that you talked about were successful. They were unorthodox and audacious and they had been carefully planned for months in advance in terms of Israel intelligence getting into the Hezbollah supply chain to intercept those pagers and implant explosives inside those pagers.

It may not be so straightforward to attack the, for example, the Iranian nuclear facilities, but certainly cyber-attacks where they could against the Iranian command and control against the nuclear facilities, and they've done that before, combined with kinetic attacks, the sort of, air strikes that you could see the Israeli Air Force undertake using precision guided weapons and bunker busters, the sort of weapon they used against Nasrallah's compound, are the most likely targets, most likely way that they would attack those targets.

ANDERSON: And clearly the Israelis have got a much deeper intelligence gathering operation going on against Hezbollah in Lebanon, otherwise those pagers and walkie-talkies wouldn't have been a successful operation. It is though the assets and Hezbollah's weapons that are ultimately being degraded and this the Israelis say is the goal of this war to restore security to its northern border there, which is threatened by Hezbollah.

Intelligence suggests, and you and I have talked about this in the past, that Hezbollah has a significant missile capability that we have not yet seen used during this theater of war. Is it clear at this point whether that will be Israel's next target? We are certainly seeing, by the way, just overnight here, efforts on Hezbollah's part to counter-attack against Israeli forces who are now in, if not on a temporary basis, in southern Lebanon.

DAVIS: Well certainly, you know, whatever attack that Israel uses against Iran as retaliation for that missile attack last night, there'll be an Iranian counter-response, and part of that counter- response could be to unleash Hezbollah to essentially give Hezbollah the ability to launch and use that large stockpile of weapons that so far we really haven't seen on a large-scale attack.

And that could be potentially in coordination with an Iranian counterattack to the Israeli retaliation. So in any war you attack, the enemy responds, then you respond to their attack and so on and so forth. And so you could see this going back and forth on many levels where Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and the militias in Iraq and Syria, all being led off the leash by Tehran, even as Tehran unleashes its own retaliation in the future.

This is going to go on for several waves and several cycles back and forth. And obviously each time it happens, the risk of a greater escalation, a more intense response by either side increases.

And so I do think that yes, you could see Hezbollah unleash that larger arsenal that they're keeping in reserve. Part of that missile capability is Iran's missile capability. So I would fully expect that.

ANDERSON: The U.S. has assets around this region, not least off the coast here. Those assets were used to help defend Israel last night in intercepting at least a dozen of those incoming ballistic missiles. To your mind, what are the threats to U.S. assets at this point in region?

DAVIS: Yeah. The threats would be the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy that can conduct swarm attacks in the Persian Gulf and in the Arabian Sea through the Straits of Hormuz attacking U.S. Navy or allied naval forces in those areas in large swarm attacks with large numbers of missile armed small craft that can launch large numbers of missiles. So that's one threat.

The other possibility I think is land based anti-ship missiles that can be launched from a shore to attack targets off the coast. So if you have U.S. Navy destroyers operating in the Eastern Mediterranean, they would be on high alert to try and counter those sort of land- based anti-ship missiles that could be launched from ashore.

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The third category of threat, which is what we've seen the Houthis try and use, is anti-ship ballistic missiles, which are essentially the same sort of ballistic missiles that Iran used against Israel last night but which are capable of targeting ships and sea. And they're much more difficult to intercept than a traditional anti-ship missile. So there's three different categories of threats that I think the U.S. Navy and its allies need to be worried about. ANDERSON: And the Israelis certainly not overlooking the threat from

the Houthis in Yemen at present. And we were reporting on just days ago, the efforts on the IAF's part to degrade at least Houthi infrastructure, power and energy infrastructure in the port of Hodeidah.

A quite significant exercise by the IAF who clearly don't see the Houthis as reigned in, if indeed that is what the other Iran-backed proxies have been by Iran of late. Malcolm Davis, it's good to have you. Your insight is really important to us. Thank you.

Well in Tehran, scenes of jubilation in the streets of the Iranian capital following Tuesday's missile strikes on Israel, the chief of Iran's armed forces says the operation was limited to military targets and was in retaliation for the assassinations of the leader of Hezbollah and others. But he warned of broader strikes to come if Israel and its allies respond.

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MAJ. GEN. MOHAMMAD BAGHERI, IRANIAN ARMED FORCES CHIEF (through translator): If the Zionist regime that has gone crazy is not controlled by America and Europe, and wants to continue these crimes or wants to do anything against our sovereignty and territorial integrity, tonight's operation will be repeated several times stronger and all their infrastructure will be targeted.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, Iranians fearful of a wider conflict and possible fuel shortages after Tuesday's attack were seen lining up outside petrol stations across Tehran.

Well, Sanam Vakil is the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. She joins me now from London. It's good to have you. We've been talking about what the potential options might be for Israel as it vows that it will respond to last night's biggest ever aerial assault on the country by Iran. You've heard the Iranian position that should they be attacked, there will be more to come.

And we are seeing still targeted attacks overnight in Beirut on the suburbs there, and certainly developing now reports of an incident on the Lebanese-Israel border involving Hezbollah and Israeli troops there. Saddam, what is your assessment of where this region stands at present?

SANAM VAKIL, DIRECTOR, MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA PROGRAM, CHATHAM HOUSE: Certainly this is a very dangerous moment, Becky, but Iran's response was designed to stop the bleed, if you will, over the past number of months. Strategic patience, as the Iranians define it, has not paid off for Iran. There has been no ceasefire in Gaza.

And in fact, Israel has made it very clear that it is going to do everything it can to address its Iran security problem and that has required Israel to take out as much of the command and control of the axis of resistance from Hamas to Hezbollah, to targeting Iranian facilities in Syria.

So from Tehran's vantage point it's a matter of time before Israel is also going to do the same in Tehran or try to set back or challenge Iran's support for these groups as well Iran is trying to throw down some red lines, knowing full well that it is in a defensive position, that Hezbollah is compromised, and that it doesn't have the traditional conventional capabilities to fight Israel. It is hoping that there will be some restraint, but I think it is also calculating that it can take some hits if it needs to in order to protect itself.

ANDERSON: There will be much disappointment throughout the Arab and Muslim world that Iran has now responded, given that it was with so much pressure from leaders around this region and beyond that Iran had conceded to reining in its actions with a promise of a ceasefire, which of course seems as far away as it has ever been at this point.

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But does -- this Wednesday morning, does Iran look weaker or stronger to your mind given what we saw overnight, given reports, assessment reports on the ground here of damage, but no significant casualties and damage? Is this a stronger or weaker Iran this October the 2nd?

VAKIL: Well, I think that Iran is trying to restore the reputational damage that it has experienced over the past few months. By directly striking Israel without any warning, unlike the attack in April, Iran is trying to project strength. But as an analyst, I don't think Iran is in a strong position in the region.

It has always been defensive. And its activities across the region have not bought Iran's supporter goodwill across the Middle East. Iran is seen to be a destabilizing regional actor. And its neighbors and the countries in the Gulf are very nervous.

ANDERSON: That suggests that there is a potential here for a new Iran with a new relationship potentially with other actors around this region if this doesn't escalate any further. But that is a very big if and at this stage to many people around this region it certainly looks like Israel is projecting strength and changing the very architecture of this region and its power structure, correct?

VAKIL: Well, I think we're very much in the fog of war. Right now, certainly, the axis of resistance is decapitated. We have to see how Hezbollah will respond. It is responding to Israel's entry into southern Lebanon. This is going to play out over the coming weeks.

We also have to see if the rest of the groups are going to marshal some kind of coordinated response. But the axis of resistance certainly was never no match against Israel. Israel has always had the quantitative military edge across the Middle East. It has intelligence dominance, military dominance, and the events of the past week have certainly reaffirmed all of that.

The bigger problem I see here in the balance of power is twofold. First of all the big issue is the question of Palestine. Nobody is talking about what comes next. Nobody's talking about a settlement process self-determination for the Palestinians. That is the best way for Israel to address its security crisis. Closing down the actual conflict is addressing the issue of Palestine and that's why the Jordanian foreign minister put out there just the other day. The second question is the issue of Iran.

ANDERSON: Yeah, and with respect, yeah, sorry, with respect on that point, just before you carry on, I mean, there was a huge effort led by the Saudis behind the scenes to get some sort of viable path towards a Palestinian state established at this point.

And that is exactly what the foreign minister was speaking to on Friday at the United Nations when he stepped in, in a very frustrated way to speak to reporters in the room about what happens next. The issue is that on the same day we did not hear Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli president, in his speech to the UNGA mention the term Palestinian state at all, did we?

VAKIL: Exactly, you're quite right. And so the issue of Palestine is completely neglected and instead what we're seeing is an enabling of and a broadening of the conflict to address Israel's security concerns, which are legitimate, but only through military terms. And in fact, there are other options on the table. And that option also requires us to think of the other challenge, and that's the Iran challenge.

There is no nuclear agreement. Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia. Obviously, Iran's role across the region is on full display. And so effectively we have an open war between Israel and Iran breaking out and it requires international mediation and solution, not just the sort of quiet complicit support of the international community or what it appears to be the quiet complicit support of the international community.

ANDERSON: It's good to have you, Sanam. Thank you. Sanam Vakil, with you this morning.

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Let me just get you some images and one CNN team on the ground is sent in at this morning this video showing the damage at the site of one strike near a school in the central Israel town of Gedera and we've been talking about the at assessment of damaging casualties as a result of the quite unprecedented and aerial assaults on Israel last night we were here in Tel Aviv. I mean it was 45 minutes of very brutal missiles coming through the sky, sirens going off, a terrifying experience of course for those living around the country and war is a terrifying thing.

But the assessment to date certainly from the Iranians competes with the assessment here in Israel. The Iranians say 90 percent of their targets military and security were hit. The IDF here saying very little damage or casualties.

These are images of the damage at one site of one strike which clearly hitting very close to a school in central Israel -- in the central Israeli town of Gedera and of course we must report that one person at least was killed in that assault last night. He was a Palestinian man in the town of Jericho. The Israelis conceding that much of those missiles that did hit the ground, hit the ground in pretty much open ground, but also in the West Bank.

We are following another major story for you this hour. The first and only U.S. Vice Presidential Debate highlights from the face-off between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance is just ahead.

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CHURCH: More on the breaking news in the Middle East. Iranian state media says it will extend the closure of its airspace until Thursday morning after Tehran unleashed a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

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ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: And you can hear the sirens over Tel Aviv as rockets rained down, Iran's military chief says 200 missiles were fired in the attack and the strike was limited to military targets but warns of broader strikes if Israel responds.

Israel hit Beirut's suburbs overnight with a new round of strikes and you can still see a thick haze over the city today. Hezbollah claims it struck an Israeli military barracks with rockets in northern Israel after this new Israeli strike.

Police departments across the U.S. are stepping up security at places of worship in light of the attack, especially amid the start of the Jewish high holidays. The NYPD expects to have increased patrols for the next two weeks.

They'll also be working with experts for detecting explosives at bridges and tunnels and using helicopter units to check for radiation. Police in Chicago, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles have also announced increased monitoring for places of worship. Some measures were already in place before Iran's attack on Israel.

The U.S. election appears closer than ever after the vice presidential debate on Tuesday night. Going into the debate, a majority of voters said they expected Democrat Tim Walz would win against Republican J.D. Vance. But afterwards, voters were much more evenly split about which candidate came out on top.

They sparred over the economy, housing, immigration, reproductive rights and other top issues as they made their pitch to voters just five weeks until election day. They focused their attacks instead on their opponents' running mates. The first question of the night was about the conflict in the Middle East and whether the nominees would support or oppose a preemptive strike on Iran by Israel following Tuesday's missile barrage.

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SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), U.S. VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Iran which launched this attack has received over $100 billion in unfrozen assets thanks to the Kamala Harris administration. Where do they use that money for? They use it to buy weapons that they're now launching it against our allies, and God forbid, potentially launching against the United States as well.

Donald Trump recognize that for people to stiff here the United States you needed peace through strength, they needed to recognize that if they got out of line the United States global leadership would put stability in peace back in the world.

Now you asked about a preemptive strike, Margaret, and I want to answer the question. Look, it is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe, and we should support our allies wherever they are when they're fighting the bad guys. I think that's the right approach to take with the Israel question.

MARGARET BRENNAN, "FACE THE NATION" ANCHOR AND CBS NEWS CHIEF FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Senator. Governor Walz, do you care to respond to any of the allegations?

GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN), U.S. VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, look, Donald Trump was in office. We'll sometimes hear a revisionist history, but when Donald Trump was in office, it was Donald Trump who we had a coalition of nations that had boxed Iran's nuclear program in, the inability to advance it. Donald Trump pulled that program and put nothing else in its place. So Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon than they were before because of Donald Trump's fickle leadership.

And when Iran shot down an American aircraft in international airspace, Donald Trump tweeted because that's the standard diplomacy of Donald Trump. And when Iranian missiles did fall near U.S. troops and they received traumatic brain injuries, Donald Trump wrote it off as headaches.

Look, our allies understand that Donald Trump is fickle. He will go to whoever has the most flattery or where it makes sense to him. Steady leadership like you witnessed today, like you witnessed in April, both Iranian attacks were repelled. Our coalition is strong and we need the steady leadership that Kamala Harris is providing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Ron Brownstein is a CNN senior political analyst and a senior editor at "The Atlantic." He joins me now from Los Angeles. I appreciate you being with us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST AND SR. EDITOR, "THE ATLANTIC": Hi Rosemary.

CHURCH: So we saw the first and only debate between Vice Presidential hopefuls Tim Walz and J.D. Vance Tuesday night. Who do you think won that debate and did it change the trajectory of the presidential election in any way? BROWNSTEIN: Well first of all I think the vice presidential debates

are to U.S. presidential politics as the bronze medal game is to the Olympics. It's sometimes fun, but it's pretty much always forgettable.

Instant polling after the debate, by and large, have found that equal shares of people thought that Vance and Walz won. That seems to me about right for most of the evening. Vance was a smoother, more confident performer.

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As a senator, he's more conversant with a lot of the federal and international issues that were under discussion and Walz is as a governor. But Walz finished was very strong. I mean to mix the sports metaphors it was kind of like hitting a walk off home run and he really did crystallize what may be the most important issue facing the next vice president: will you support Donald Trump if he again attempts to override the election and J.D. Vance could not would not say no.

CHURCH: Yeah, interesting at that point. Of course, the V.P. candidates answered a wide range of questions, didn't they, on the Middle East policy, the economy, immigration, reproductive rights, health care, climate change and more. There were a number of falsehoods, it has to be said, on both sides. But what were the weak and strong points for Walz and Vance on some of those issues?

BROWNSTEIN: Well I think Walz obviously was nervous when it started and he at various points in the debate kind of stumbled over himself, his wording. His weakest point was certainly trying to explain how he had said he was in Tiananmen Square during the democracy protests and in fact was only there a little later, which doesn't seem like a huge kind of misapprehension 35 years later.

I thought Vance was strongest in making the case on inflation which is interesting because I think Trump has gotten away from that and focused more on personal safety, crime, and immigration.

Walz's best moments, as I said, I think were the closing about democracy, but also the exchanges about abortion. I thought Vance, it was striking that on both abortion and healthcare, he largely dodged the questions. He's really been out there on healthcare, making clear that Republicans still have plans to reconfigure, restructure the Affordable Care Act to undermine its core protection for people with pre-existing conditions. He did not repeat that tonight on the stage. Instead, he tried to evade the question as much as he could.

CHURCH: Yeah, and you mentioned abortion rights. On that issue, Walz laid out the need for women to have control over their own bodies, not the state. And then Vance appeared to change his stance on the issue, didn't he?

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

CHURCH: But Walz didn't tackle him on that. What was your reading of that particular moment? BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think it was indicative of a lot of the moments. I

mean, there was a little bit of the Joe Lieberman-2000-versus-Dick Cheney-vibe to Tim Walz's performance in which Democrats after in 2000, and I think again tonight, felt that the candidate was so focused on portraying his own reasonableness and centrism and kind of Minnesota nice that he let a lot of opportunities go by and certainly led Vance get away with misrepresenting positions that he's held and that Trump has held.

You know, in the end more sound than fury than signifying anything. Vice presidential debates have not really had a big impact on presidential races. Otherwise, we'd be talking about President Dukakis after Lloyd Benson demolished Dan Quayle in 1988.

But I do think for Democrats, there are probably frustrating moments where Walz did not take the offensive. To some extent, maybe to a considerable extent, that was a race from the board by that very strong final few minutes.

He really did save the best for last talking about democracy, not only looking back at January 6th and Trump's actions, but looking forward to what a Vance would do if presented with the same circumstances in which Mike Pence stood up for the Constitution. Would Vance do the same? There wasn't much tonight that would give you a lot of optimism, that would be the case.

CHURCH: Yeah, indeed. Ron Brownstein, good to have you with us, I appreciate it.

BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me.

CHURCH: And we will head back to Tel Aviv for the very latest on the Iranian missile attack on Israel plus reaction from U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. That's next on CNN.

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BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Welcome back. More now on our top story, the aftermath of Iran's largest ever aerial attack on Israel, as well as Israel's escalating war with Hezbollah. Overnight, CNN teams heard blasts in Beirut's southern suburbs, where Israel says it has been striking Hezbollah targets.

The Israeli military issued evacuation orders starting at midnight local time. They are also warning civilians that heavy fighting is underway in southern Lebanon and say that Hezbollah is using civilians as human shields.

Well meanwhile, Israel is warning Iran of serious consequences after firing -- it fired 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The IDF says at least one person was killed, a Palestinian in Jericho, and several other people were injured. One ballistic missile hit near a school in central Israel, leaving a crater more than two meters deep. U.S. says it does not believe Israel has decided yet how to respond, but Israel insists Iran's attack will be answered.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REAR ADM. DANIEL HAGARI, ISRAELI ARMY SPOKESPERSON (through translator): We are on high readiness on the defense and the offense. We will protect the citizens of Israel. This fire will have consequences. We have plans and we will act at a place and a time of our decision.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris condemned the Iranian attacks on Israel. She publicly supported President Joe Biden's order for the U.S. military to shoot down missiles headed for Israel. She also said that Iran must be held accountable for its aggressive behavior. The U.S. presidential campaign is getting down to the wire. And Harris made very clear her stance on America's relationship with Israel and interactions with Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS (D), U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are still assessing the impact. But initial indications are that Israel, with our assistance, was able to defeat this attack. Our joint defenses have been effective, and this operation and successful cooperation saved many innocent lives.

And let us be clear, Iran is not only a threat to Israel, Iran is also a threat to American personnel in the region, American interests, and innocent civilians across the region who suffered the hands of Iran- based and backed terrorist proxies. We will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend U.S. forces and interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Alright, my next guest writes and I quote, "one of my main concerns if this conflict continues to escalate and the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah saturate Israel with their most advanced, precise and deadly missiles is that the Israeli political and security leadership could view the effects of such attacks as sufficiently catastrophic and even existential so as to justify a nuclear strike in response, potentially a demonstrative one at first."

Farzan Sabet is a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, joins me now from Switzerland this morning.

[03:45:01]

I'm interested in what you have written. Given that we have seen 200 or so mostly ballistic missiles fired at Israel, the largest ever aerial attack. And just overnight Hezbollah launching, according to the IDF, some 100 missiles at Israel. When you talk about the potential for Iran and Hezbollah unleashing some of its most important arsenal, it does certainly feel as if we are already moving that way. Just discuss further your concerns at this point.

FARZAN SABET, SR. RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, GENEVA GRADUATE INSTITUTE: Yeah, absolutely. I think the Islamic Republic, through the strike that it conducted yesterday, has put Israel in a position where it feels it needs to conduct a major strike. Last time in April, after Iran retaliated against it, Israel's response was rather limited to a single air defense radar.

This attack will be much larger and could lead to further escalatory rounds. And in these specific rounds, Iran targeted major military sites, which are some of the most heavily defended places in the world when it comes to air defense. And it appears, at least for the time being, that little significant damage was done.

In the future, it could saturate those sites, as well as civilian and other critical and strategic infrastructure with not only a much larger number of missiles, but also using a greater proportion of its most sophisticated systems, including the Fatah 1, which was used yesterday, and it's believed that many of the strikes that went through Israel's air defense system were of this type of missile.

ANDERSON: Was it a successful attack last night on Israel as far as the regime is concerned or not? Certainly we've heard the IRGC say that these missiles hit 90 percent of their targets. There's a competing narrative of course here in Israel where although the assessment continues and we're not privy to all of the damage and casualties at this point it does seem as if it was mostly defeated as described by Jake Sullivan last night.

So does the regime genuinely believe, do you think, this Wednesday morning that was a successful attack and how do those who don't support the regime see it, do you believe, in Iran?

SABET: Yet. A lot. Absolutely. So like as with the attack last time around, I believe something like 95 to 99 percent of the projectiles were intercepted, this attack is seeming to be viewed as a failure by international and regional audiences opposed to Iran.

From the perspective of the Islamic republican, its allies in the acts of resistance however, they're trying to threaten much finer needle and what they were going is for the spectacle of the attack of a basically and that rain of missiles coming down on Tel Aviv looking like meteors are crashing down from the sky. That's the effect that they were going for and the message that this attack was more effective than the attack last time and even if it didn't result in major damage this time around future attacks will.

So there going for the spectacle effect while at the same time trying to prevent a further significant escalation of a conflict specially would one that would run the United States and would have to actually catastrophic effects as I said before on Iran itself.

ANDERSON: Right, let's talk about what Israel's options are at this point, because that response by Israel back in April, limited, as you had described it, many say was limited because Israel was still at that point, ostensibly still listening to the United States, the U.S. president, and to those in Washington who support it.

We know the Prime Minister hasn't spoken to the U.S. President since August because the U.S. President conceded as much last night. The question is if it was limited in scope because there was pressure on Israel last time to carry out that strike as such because it was listening to Washington. Things have changed since then significantly. To your mind, what are the options that Israel has as far as targets are concerned in Iran at this point and what is the likely scenario at this point?

[03:50:00]

SABET: At this stage of escalation, I don't believe that they will strike. So a lot of the discussion has been about whether Israel will or should in response strike major Iranian nuclear facilities, as well as major economic targets like oil facilities.

At this stage of the escalation, I don't believe they're going to strike major nuclear facilities or economic targets. They're more likely to attack military bases, including the missile and drone bases where attacks against Israel have been launched from the past, potentially secondary nuclear sites that are less significant and less well-defended, less further underground, and secondary economic targets.

This seems like the most likely outcome at this stage, because it would inflict serious damage on Iran and allowed the Israelis to walk away, saying that they conducted a major retaliation, while at the same time permitting the Islamic Republic to do perhaps a more pro forma response from its farm, including cruise missiles and drones that are more easy to intercept. And this round could end there.

A second scenario, which I think at this stage is not unlikely, is that Israel will attempt to strike major nuclear facilities, although they don't have the capability to do damage to the most deeply buried facilities at Fordow and Natanz. And it could also, as has been discussed, potentially strike major economic targets like significant oil infrastructure, including the terminal at (inaudible) and elsewhere.

So that's a second option, and that would lead to a significant second round of escalation. And in that round, Iran would probably not only target Israel but perhaps oil infrastructure or oil choke points throughout the region.

ANDERSON: Well, these are hypotheses at the moment as we wait for the detail from Benjamin Netanyahu and his government here for the time being. Farzan Sabat in Geneva. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.

And that is it from Tel Aviv for this hour. Rosemary Church is standing by in Atlanta with some other news. Stay with us.

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[03:55:00]

CHURCH: Welcome back everyone. Well more now on our top story. This is the scene in central Israel where a school building was damaged in Iran's massive missile attack on Tuesday. Israeli authorities say shock waves caused by the strike also damaged homes in the region. Tehran is confirming 200 missiles were fired during Iran's Tuesday attack on Israel.

And the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says the operation was limited to military targets but warned of broader strikes if Israel responds. The Israeli military says it hit Hezbollah targets in several southern suburbs of Beirut overnight, with Hezbollah claiming to have hit Israeli military barracks with rockets on the Israel-Lebanon border in the early morning hours.

The death toll continues to rise in the United States from Hurricane Helene. At least 162 deaths have been reported across the southeastern U.S., making Helene the second deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland in the last 50 years. U.S. President Joe Biden predicts the recovery will cost billions of dollars and is asking Congress to approve more disaster relief, saying that states must have every available resource.

In North Carolina, one of the hardest hit states Governor Roy Cooper says rescue crews are still trying to get to remote areas in the mountains. More than 350,000 customers across the state still don't have electricity, according to poweroutage.us. The governor spoke about the destruction.

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GOV. ROY COOPER (D-NC): We know the devastation brought by Hurricane Helene is beyond belief. Communities were wiped off the map. Dozens of lives lost, hundreds of roads remain damaged or impassable. Communication has been difficult due to cell phone and power outages. Many people were waiting for days trying to get in touch with loved ones. And thankfully, many of them have, but some of them are still waiting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: 3,500 federal workers have been deployed across the region to assist with the storm response. So far, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has provided nearly 2 million meals, 1 million liters of water, and 30 generators to affected areas.

Want to thank you so much for your company. I'm Rosemarie Church. Have yourselves a wonderful day. "CNN Newsroom" will continue with Becky Anderson in Tel Aviv, and Max Foster in London after a short break. Do stay with us.

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