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Justice Department Charges Three In Iranian Plot to Kill Trump; Trump Names Susie Wiles As White House Chief Of Staff; Democrats Reckon With Sweeping Election Losses; Dutch, Israel Officials Condemn Attacks As Antisemitic; What A Second Trump Presidency Could Mean For Europe. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired November 08, 2024 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:48]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: It's 8:00 p.m. in London, 9:00 p.m. in Amsterdam, 3:00 p.m. in West Palm Beach and here in Washington. I'm Jim Sciutto. Thanks for joining me today on CNN NEWSROOM. And let's get right to the news.

A big announcement out of Washington, the Justice Department charging three people in connection with an Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump. According to court documents, Iranian officials wanted Trump watched and ultimately assassinated. Prosecutors say around October 7th, the main suspect, Farhad Shakeri was told to stop focusing on other assassination plots and focus only on Trump. He was to continue with that plot against Trump until after the election under the Iranian belief that Trump would not win. Shakeri is now at large in Iran.

Two other suspects are Americans and were arrested in New York. The U.S. government has repeatedly raised concerns that Iran might try to retaliate for the 2020 U.S. drone strike, which Trump ordered as president and killed General Qassem Soleimani.

Joining us now is Karim Sadjadpour, expert on Iran senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Good to have you on as always. I wonder -- when you look at this plot, an act of war by Iran in effect?

KARIM SADJADPOUR, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: Absolutely, Jim. Had their plot succeeded to either kill president Trump or the half dozen Trump administration officials that they've been trying to kill over the last two decades to two years, it certainly would have constituted an act of war, and it would -- it would require U.S. military retaliation inside Iran had they succeeded.

SCIUTTO: Now, would a failed plot possibly bring military retaliation by a soon to be President Trump in your view?

SADJADPOUR: I think President Trump's instincts are clearly to avoid more conflict in the Middle East or conflict with Iran. But I think, Jim, there's essentially almost a bipartisan consensus now in Washington that enemy number one for United States is Iran. If you recall, during the campaign, Kamala Harris was asked who is America's greatest adversary, she said, Iran. And so now Iran has been plotting to assassinate President Trump, and they've been trying to assassinate the individuals who will compose his national security brain trust for the last four years.

So, you know, all of us are at the end of the day, governments are run by human beings. And when a country has been trying to assassinate you the last four years, that's, of course, going to deeply impact the way you think about that country.

SCIUTTO: Yeah. I mean, think George W. Bush and the plot going back to Iraq to assassinate his father and how that played out later. Let me ask you this about what happens now, in your view with the previous administration or the current administration, President Biden, and others, regarding Israel were discouraging it from major attacks on Iran, specifically those that would target nuclear facilities or oil facilities. In your view, does Trump take those -- those restraints off to some degree, or does he lean towards, as you describe his aversion to a broader war in the region?

SADJADPOUR: Well, I'm a big believer that at the end of the day, we should take people at their word and examine what they say publicly. And publicly, President Trump has encouraged by Prime Minister Netanyahu to attack Iran's oil facilities, to attack its nuclear facilities now, that was before the election. Perhaps now that he's soon going to be in charge, he doesn't want Iran's oil facilities attacked when there's a huge risk that it would skyrocket the price of oil.

But certainly his instincts -- you know, I call president Trump the Jackson Pollock of geopolitics. He's someone who's capable of wanting to build hotels in Iran and is capable of trying to drop bombs on Iran. But obviously, now that it's been clear that they've been actively trying to kill him, they actively tried to sway the election in favor of Vice President Harris, you know, obviously, it's going to be looking at Iran as adversary number one.

[15:05:14]

SCIUTTO: Now, how about Trump's likely policy as regards Israel and not just in terms of attacking Iran, but also as it continues to carry out operations in Gaza in Lebanon and the aspirations it seems, of the current Israeli prime minister who's quite close with Trump to perhaps take over larger portions of the West Bank, you know, what Trump has said publicly about Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon is essentially to just wrap it up quickly that, you know, he doesn't want to see this conflict on his watch.

And you could take that in two very different ways. If you're Prime Minister Netanyahu to say that you know, that gives us license to, you know, continue our military campaign, even more severely to defeat our adversary, or you could take it to say that. Okay. You know president Trump is now going to exercise even more restraint over Israel than the Biden administration has.

But I think, you know fundamentally, whether it comes to Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon or the Russia-Ukraine war, his instincts, Trump's instincts are want to are to want to simply do deals to, to stop these conflicts -- much easier said than done.

SCIUTTO: The trouble is right for that worldview is that he can say Iran is the number one enemy, or one of the number one enemies, but Iran is very much hand in hand with Russia. Iran sending weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, Russia supporting Iran in a number of ways, including in the past in missile and potentially nuclear technology.

Is Trump aware of that relationship? And how does it -- how must it impact his dealings with Russia as well?

SADJADPOUR: You know, I think that these issues are now widely reported. The relationship between Russia and Iran. And so, you know nowadays, Jim, you look at our kind of four chief competitors/adversaries of the United States, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and I think we have to think broadly about a strategy to contend with them. Instead of thinking about, you know, four separate Cold Wars, you have to think about, you know, how these countries are linked and to think about, you know, what is the strategy that actually strengthens the differences between them rather than strengthens their partnership.

And certainly one of the connections here is Syria. In addition to, you know, Russia and Iran have now become, in some ways competitors in Syria. And so that's one question that the Trump administration will probably want to probe.

SCIUTTO: And one difference from his last administration is that that alliance, in effect, between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are much tighter than it was four years ago. It's a different world.

Karim Sadjadpour, thanks so much.

SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: All right. So, domestic politics, the fight well underway here for who will take the top jobs in the next Trump administration. Donald Trump has already made an historic pick. On Thursday, he announced his campaign manager, Susie Wiles, will become the first woman to serve as White House chief of staff. Before accepting the job, Wiles wanted a promise that she would be the gatekeeper and have control over who had access to the president inside the Oval Office.

Billionaire Elon Musk seems to be making a return on his investment after lining up Trump's campaign, a remarkable number. CNN's told Musk joined a call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the very day after the election. The president-elect has 73 days until he heads back to the White House and is expected to start naming more cabinet picks in the coming days.

Steve Contorno is tracking the Trump team's next political moves, joins us now from St. Petersburg Florida.

First, what exactly did Musk, Trump and Zelenskyy talk about? And why was Musk on that phone call?

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN REPORTER: It's a great question, Jim, and we are still searching for answers there.

We have reached out to both Elon Musk and the Trump campaign for more details. We have confirmed that Musk was in fact, on that call, and we knew that this call took place. In fact, Zelenskyy had posted on X that he called Donald Trump to congratulate him saying, quote, we agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation strong and unwavering U.S. leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace.

But what we didn't hear from Zelenskyy in that message was that Musk was on the call as well, which raises a whole new host of questions about what sort of influence Musk will have in Donald Trump's administration.

[15:10:08]

We knew Donald Trump had asked Elon Musk to head up some sort of position where he is going to go through the government and figure out where there is so-called waste and abuse that can be cut from the budget. But we had not heard anything about Musk having any sort of influence in Trump's approach to foreign policy, which is potentially concerning given the amount of business that Musk has around the world, including with Ukraine.

He has provided Starlink internet that has been vital to the Ukraine war front efforts. But he also has ties to China, where he builds and gets materials for his electric car company, Tesla. And there have been increasing concerns about the amount of communications he has with Russia.

And so, there are a lot of questions here about what kind of role Musk will have in a Trump administration that extends beyond just looking for waste and excess spending, and we are starting to get a glimpse into just how much Musk and some of these Donald Trump immensely down the stretch are going to have a say in his new government.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, and it used to be to divest yourself of private business holdings when you served in government, or at least set up blind trusts. That seems to be well out the door.

Steve Contorno, thanks so much.

Well, the Republican Party has now secured control of the White House and the Senate, which means many now focusing on where the House of Representatives ends up. Republicans are only six seats away from holding a majority. Democrats need 16 seats to take the chamber. And in total, there are 21 House races that CNN has not yet projected.

My next guest commanded infantry worked in special operations in panama as well of course, he now serves in the U.S. Congress, joining me now from Newton, Massachusetts, Democratic Representative Jake Auchincloss.

Good to have you on. Thanks so much for joining.

I got a lot of questions for you about the next two to four -- two to four years. First, if I could just ask you on the politics of this, do Democrats still have a chance of getting the House or is that far -- is that farfetched at this point?

REP. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-MA): Not far fetched at all? Democrats absolutely have a chance, and we have to ensure that we are supporting and resourcing our candidates who are doing recounts or litigation, because the goal is every lawful vote needs to be counted and we need to ensure that the will of the voters in California and Arizona and elsewhere are heard, and there's absolutely a path to a majority, albeit a narrow one.

SCIUTTO: If you don't get that majority. And I know you probably hate to discuss hypotheticals but let's say Republicans have the White House, the House and the Senate they have a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, what's your power and influence at this point as Democrats to pursue your agenda or to hold back elements of the Trump agenda? You consider too extreme clearly harder in the minority in the House particularly as tariffs and taxes are in play next year.

We're going to have to triage the most profound and irreversible damage that he can do. I look particularly at politicizing the military, which is a 250-year history since George Washington handed over his sword to the Continental Congress, that we have had a nonpartisan military. Donald Trump clearly wants to reverse that.

We will have to find a bipartisan coalition of the Reagan remnants of the Republican senators and House members to stand with us against those attempts. Same thing with RFK in Health and Human Services. He could degrade our gold standard regulatory and biomedical research apparatus at the FDA and the NIH. We've got to stand against that.

So, we're going to have to triage and build guardrails in a bipartisan fashion to prevent truly the worst kinds of damage.

SCIUTTO: Politicize the military, how specifically?

AUCHINCLOSS: Well, he's indicated that he is very frustrated that generals swear an oath to the Constitution and not to any individual. He thinks that they should be loyal to him as commander in chief. You know, Donald, that's not the way that the U.S. military works. We swear an oath to uphold the rule of law, and that has served the United States very well.

It's something that Americans frankly take for granted. We cannot be complacent about that. And we have to be immediate and vicious in response to any attempt that he makes to get admirals and generals to obey his whims, as opposed to the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

SCIUTTO: Do you believe that there are Republicans in the House and the Senate that you and your Democratic colleagues can work with to build a coalition in effect, your own bipartisan majority, to push back against what you consider the possibility of his most extreme plans? AUCHINCLOSS: Well, you know, Jim, I'm reading my book of episodes of Republican courage against Donald Trump's depredations, and it's got very few chapters in it. So, you know, I'm cynical about their willingness to demonstrate political courage but if were in the minority in both chambers and again, I think that we do have a path to a house majority. But if we are in the minority in both chambers, we are going to have to get those Reagan remnants.

The people like John Curtis in Utah and others who have demonstrated in the past that they're willing to do the right thing where you're going to have to bring them along and say, now is the time for country first, for constitution first, not for Donald Trump first.

SCIUTTO: On a couple of specific overseas issues, do you believe that President Trump will end U.S. military aid to Ukraine as many of his own former senior advisers warned in advance of the election?

AUCHINCLOSS: We have to act as though he will. As your previous guest said I think quite cogently believe people when they say what they're going to do.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

AUCHINCLOSS: Donald Trump said he was going to incite an insurrection because the election had been stolen from him. He did. We have to believe people when they say these things especially when that person is the president of United States which is why I am tripling down on my exhortations to Joe Biden to lift the restrictions on Ukraine for using U.S.-made ATACMS and F-16s, allow Ukraine to win this war enough with the not losing it, allow Ukraine to change the facts on the battleground by taking out Russian troop staging sites or logistics sites or oil refining sites so that by the time Donald Trump takes office in January, Ukraine's leverage is significantly enhanced.

SCIUTTO: John Bolton, who, of course, served as Trump's national security advisor in the first administration, told me that Trump, when discussing Taiwan, would point to his sharpie and say, this is Taiwan, and then point to his desk in the Oval Office and say, this Taiwan didn't have a chance against China if China were to decide to invade.

If you were Taiwan today with President Trump about to be the commander in chief, would you expect a President Trump to intervene militarily if China were to invade?

AUCHINCLOSS: I mean, first of all, he's wrong that Taiwan doesn't have a chance. It's not true. The Chinese navy hasn't won an engagement since the 1400s. And so any attempt for them to cross the Taiwan Strait, which will be militarized to then do an amphibious invasion cross over the mountains and engage in urban tactical door to door combat against a mobilized and well-armed society, I think is very challenging. And I think the People's Liberation Army would tell you that it's very challenging. I think they've told Xi Jinping that's very challenging.

So I think it is defeatist to say that Taiwan does not have a chance. Now they have to make their energy sources and their food sources more resilient because those are subject to blockade. But if Taiwan fights, America needs to support Taiwan in fighting and Congress will need to take the lead in making that clear, as we have since the 1970s with Taiwan Relations Act.

SCIUTTO: Trump supporters have said often to me, and I'm sure you've heard this as well, they've said this to others that the Putins of the world, the Xis of the world, the Iranian leaders, the Kims, et cetera. Respect Trump in a way they did not Joe Biden, and therefore they would be too scared in effect or too concerned about how Trump might react to say, invade Taiwan or to -- from Russia's perspective, attempt to take over more of Ukraine.

Do you believe there's anything to back that up?

AUCHINCLOSS: No. And I think you could just ask the Taliban that. Taliban met with him and his advisers in Doha. They've out-negotiated him, handed Joe Biden a series of challenging choices with which I think Joe Biden then handled correctly. But the Taliban were laughing at Donald Trump the entire time, and Donald Trump's old defense secretary, Mark Esper, has admitted -- admitted as much and said we got a bad deal there.

So if the Taliban leadership could out-negotiate Donald Trump, the idea that Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong-un take him seriously, I find farfetched. What we need is to recognize that we are facing an axis of authoritarianism. China is the senior partner and is our pacing adversary, and as your previous guest said, we need to be wedging that access from each other at every available opportunity. That means we have to ensure that Russia loses in Ukraine, and that China distances itself from that losing effort.

We've got to stop the export of Iranian oil to China and we have got to rebuff North Korea's attempt to invade Europe, which should be an embarrassment to China on the world stage.

SCIUTTO: Before we go. Your reaction to the Justice Department revelations about the seriousness of the Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump prior to the election?

[15:20:03]

Is that an act of war in your view?

AUCHINCLOSS: I haven't read the full unsealed documents. I don't want to comment too much in depth. Obviously, any attempt by a foreign government to murder any American citizen needs to be dealt with in the most severe possible terms, and a law enforcement investigation is totally appropriate.

I'll note that Iran is, through, its terror proxy terror forces already attacking American troops in the Middle East. And so, whether it's commander in chief or whether it's a corporal, it is an act of aggression against the United States. And it underscores that Iran is one of our enemies and that we should be supporting Israel as it fights one of our enemies on our behalf.

SCIUTTO: Representative Jake Auchincloss, thanks so much as always, for joining.

AUCHINCLOSS: Good to be with you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Still ahead, condemnation in the Netherlands after an antisemitic attack breaks out there. We're going to have a live report, an update from Amsterdam.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Special counsel Jack Smith is giving his first public indication he's preparing to wind down his federal criminal case against Donald Trump. He asked a judge to wipe away all upcoming deadlines related to the 2020 election subversion case, so his office can assess how to move forward. Smith says he could have a decision by December 2nd.

Trump has repeatedly vowed to fire smith once he takes office, and said he should be quote, thrown out of the country.

Joining me now, our senior crime and justice reporter Katelyn Polantz.

So I've asked you this many times, as regard these cases but what happens now?

KATELYN POLANTZ, CNN SENIOR CRIME AND JUSTICE REPORTER: Now, nothing, Jim. That's what's happening now, because the special counsel's office, they did ask the judge to wipe away the deadlines in this one remaining federal criminal case against Donald Trump related to his actions after the 2020 election.

[15:25:03]

And Judge Tanya Chutkan in D.C. about 30 minutes later. She said okay, no more deadlines, no more work to be done, no more progress toward trial.

Now that's not the end of this case. It's not the last time were going to be talking about it, because the Justice Department and special counsel, Jack Smith, still have to come up with a plan that they say would be in line with Justice Department policy. They want basically until the beginning of December to figure that out.

But they are acknowledging that this is unprecedented circumstance, that's the words that they put in their filing today, and they do need to determine the plan going forward, in this case against Donald Trump, where he is a criminal defendant, because he is very soon formally going to be the president-elect. And then he will be inaugurated as president again on January 20th.

And, Jim, we've spoken about it many times in the past. The Justice Department has policy on the books that they cannot prosecute a sitting president or have him facing criminal charges in federal court. And so, there's nothing more to be done in this case, even with all of those immunity proceedings, that massive brief where Smith's office put out all of many of the facts that they have in this case, all of the debate before Judge Chutkan, that's over as of now. Exactly how it ends, we'll still have to watch the docket to see how

that plays out.

SCIUTTO: Well, they had four years. They had four years. Those four years are now up.

Katelyn Polantz, thanks so much.

Turning to a situation overseas, we've been watching closely in the Netherlands. The Dutch authorities are condemning what they have called antisemitic attacks on Israeli citizens visiting there. It happened overnight in Amsterdam. Israeli football fans were beaten and injured in the chaos following a match between Ajax Amsterdam and Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Joining us now from Amsterdam is CNN's Melissa Bell.

Goodness. I mean, the scenes from this violence were just remarkable. Do we know how it started and what Dutch investigators have found so far?

MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly, Jim, the tension had been building for several days. You have to bear in mind that this is a continent that has been particularly tense since the war in Gaza began, with its large Muslim communities, its important Jewish population, and a lot of European feeling about this, a lot of pro-Palestine protests over the course of the month.

And so, even as this match was due to take place and tensions were rising images emerging on social media, Dutch police put some 800 men and women out on the street to try and ensure that peace was kept still. It was not enough to avoid what happened last night.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BELL (voice-over): "For the children for the children," chant the attackers, free Palestine now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Free Palestine.

BELL: The Israeli embassy says it is just one of hundreds of Israeli fans targeted in Amsterdam overnight, after a soccer match between the Israeli team Maccabi and the Dutch team Ajax, with the attackers violently denouncing Israel's war on Gaza.

This man trying to escape being beaten by saying that he isn't Jewish, before being struck hard in the face.

The Dutch prime minister condemning the attacks as antisemitic and vowing to prosecute the perpetrators.

Police say they've launched a major investigation, it's unclear how it all started.

In total, more than 60 individuals were arrested and some remain in custody. And in a press conference Friday, the city's mayor had this to say.

FEMKE HALSEMA, MAYOR OF AMSTERDAM: But what happened last night is not a protest. It has nothing to do with protest or demonstration. It was crime.

BELL: The violence culminates to clashes overnight after a build up earlier this week with Israeli fans seen here chanting pro-IDF slogans and F the Arabs

And others tearing down a Palestinian flag from a building

(EXPLETIVES DELETED)

BELL: And while the situation is now under control, attention may soon shift to France where a match between the Israeli and French soccer teams is scheduled for next week.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BELL (on camera): Well, it is with an eye on that match next week in Paris, Jim, that Israeli authorities have been taking a very close interest, not only evacuating Israeli football fans out of Amsterdam over the course of the day, with several flights that took them back to Tel Aviv but a visit here in the Dutch capital by the Israeli foreign minister to speak with authorities here.

[15:30:06]

And what he's saying is that he wants Israel to be able to help in the investigations by helping to collect evidence to ensure that prosecutions are brought in. Some of these horrific cases from overnight, but also to work much more closely with European authorities to ensure that this kind of soccer fixture doesn't become the scene of more violence in the weeks to come -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, goodness, such a shame to see there. Melissa Bell, thanks so much.

With President-elect Donald Trump taking office soon, the E.U. and Ukraine are, of course, wondering how his decisions will now affect them, including the future of Ukraine, with the ongoing Russian invasion. We're going to check in, coming up.

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SCIUTTO: Leaders across Europe are now assessing, wondering how exactly President-elect Donald Trump will handle the many national security and trade issues that affect them from the U.S. perspective, including basic questions about whether military alliances like NATO survive.

Our Nic Robertson has a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Raging wars in Ukraine and the Mideast, an informal alliance of enemies, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are the obvious changes in world order President-elect Donald Trump inherits, less talked about since he left office in 2021, the political weakening of some of his former putative allies particularly in Europe.

Elections in France undermined President Emmanuel Macron's standing. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has a tanking economy and a collapsing governing coalition. Both of these E.U. powerhouses losing political ground to right wing populists who are on the rise across Europe.

In Italy, a right wing populist, Giorgia Meloni, won elections, is a fan of Trump, but Trump also lost supporters.

BORIS JOHNSON, FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Thank you all very much.

ROBERTSON: UK P.M. Boris Johnson gone from power. The conservative party trounced in recent elections by trend bucking Keir Starmer's left leaning Labour Party, where all these changes get tested first, likely over Trump's campaign promise to end Russia's war in Ukraine in a day.

TRUMP: I'll have that done in 24 hours.

ROBERTSON: And threats to pull America's Ukraine funding as almost 50 European leaders gathered in Budapest just two days after the U.S. elections. Trump's victory and Ukraine are top topic.

Trump ally and meeting host Hungarian P.M. Viktor Orban in close conversation with Macron and Starmer. Starmer, then with Macron just the tip of the iceberg of debate on this frosty issue. And Starmer later, with Ukraine's Zelenskyy.

KEIR STARMER, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: As you know, our support for Ukraine is unwavering.

ROBERTSON: The unspoken question in Budapest, can Europe go it alone?

ALEXANDER DE CROO, BELGIAN PRIME MINISTER: We should be very clear on this. European security is not something that we outsource to someone else, for example, to the United States.

ROBERTSON: Macron said the same thing, but already clear the opening pitch to Trump. We need you.

DE CROO: We are open to discuss with the United States on how we can work better together.

ROBERTSON: And at the sharp end of Europe's sell, NATO's new chief, another change for Trump.

MARK RUTTE, NATO SECRETARY GENERAL: I look forward to sit down with Donald Trump to discuss how we can face these threats collectively.

ROBERTSON: It's a bold gambit, but read through it. Europe isn't ready to stand up to Putin alone. Nic Robertson, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Our thanks to Nic Robertson for his reporting.

So for more, specifically on Russia's reaction to all of this, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, I want to bring in Jill Dougherty, adjunct professor at Georgetown University, former CNN Moscow bureau chief.

Jill, always good to have you. A lot to discuss. Biggest question, does Putin welcome Trump's victory?

JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: He does. That's a complicated question, actually. Of course on one level, he welcomes it because Russia pushed for it, but there also is a lack of trust about what Trump is actually going to do. So I think, you know, the Kremlin is looking at this and saying yes, looks good. But you never know what he will do.

And I think a lot of people know that the team, or at least what we think is a team behind the scenes for Trump is divided especially on issues like Ukraine. So nobody knows exactly what he or they will do.

SCIUTTO: Let me ask you that, because that is exactly what Trump's supporters say about him that leaders not just Putin, but Xi, Kim Jong-un, the Iranian leadership, fear Trump, in part because he's unpredictable. Is that true?

I mean, because when you look at Russia in particular, Trump has been particularly predictable in, for instance never criticizing Vladimir Putin and often praising him.

DOUGHERTY: Well, I mean, you know, there is what's called the madman theory that if you act like a madman then other people might, you know, be careful because you never know. Is he going to explode the world? That type of thing.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

DOUGHERTY: In a -- in a sense that can work. But the problem is usually, there -- there should be a method behind the madness. You know, what's the purpose of doing that, bluffing and if it just looks like chaos and not really any plan behind it, then it gets kind of nerve wracking even for, I think, for America's enemies.

SCIUTTO: Is Ukraine in trouble in the simplest terms, in terms of U.S. support, under the ongoing invasion and the possibility that Trump pressures them into making a deal, they don't want?

DOUGHERTY: Yeah, I think right now, you know, the war is not going well. We have the political situation in the United States. It's unclear whether the United States, the Trump administration, will continue funding or helping Ukraine.

It's unclear especially, will the Trump administration push for an agreement, some way of, you know, solving this war?

[15:40:05]

And Trump has said, I will solve this in less than 24 hours, even before I become president. So this is -- this is something the question, of course, is, well, how are you going to do it? And so far, it appears that the easiest way to do it, easiest in quotes, would be simply to give Putin what he wants. Excuse me -- give the -- make or, you know, pressure the Ukrainians to give up that territory that Russia holds and come to some type of either ceasefire or an agreement.

It's very obvious that Trump really wants a deal. He wants some big win at the beginning of his presidency. So that's the nerve wracking thing for Ukraine. And that's why I think you had Zelenskyy jumping, you know, very quickly to congratulate him, and using the president. Former presidents own words peace through strength saying hey please be strong. We need an America. But not really knowing where it's going.

SCIUTTO: How about NATO? Is NATO in trouble? As I and others reported, Trump and his first administration, according to his own advisers, very nearly pulled the U.S. out of NATO. Now, Congress has since passed legislation that would not allow a unilateral withdrawal. But the fact is, as commander in chief, you choose to serve an alliance or not to certainly when it comes to mutual defense, is NATO in trouble?

DOUGHERTY: Well, there are different ways it could be in trouble. I mean, you know, Trump could try to pull out. However, it's not an easy thing. And as you pointed out, you know, Congress would have to vote on it.

But there are other things that he could do short of that. I mean, the United States could remain a member of NATO, but the president could decide not to act on article five. You know mutual protection for allies or members of NATO who are attacked. There are various ways that that could be done to soften the United States participation in NATO and all of that would play into Putin's hands -- anytime, stoking any division plays into Putin's hands.

SCIUTTO: Well, we'll know quite soon. Jill Dougherty, thanks so much, as always, to help us understand all this.

Still ahead, some companies are already making big changes to avoid potential tariffs by the next Trump administration, which, of course, he spoke about a great deal during the campaign. The details coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:45:37]

SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

The already record breaking Dow has set some new records this week. The Dow now topping 44,000 for the first time ever. Just a little bit below it right now. Of course, it already soared to record highs during the most recent administration, and then again after Trump's victory at the polls.

Joining us now to talk about the business climate going forward is the host of "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS", a guy named Richard Quest.

Richard, good to have you here.

I mean, listen, the markets have already been booming for years, right? I mean, they've been high, but they've gone up again since Trump's victory. Why, exactly?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Because of a raft of policies that are perceived to becoming the economy's way, that will juice up and boost growth. Everything from investments in A.I., removal of restrictions on drilling, lower government regulation that will make financial services more profitable, the Trump agenda across the board is going to be one of business-friendly policies, particularly about things like removing regulation, and that should increase profitability, earnings per share and so on and so forth.

There is also, of course, this feeling that the Fed -- well, we know the Fed is cutting interest rates. It's already done it this week and that will continue. Growth is good. So the economic landscape is not only rosy from the previous administration, but Donald Trump's policies will give it a boost as well.

SCIUTTO: I'm old enough to remember the 2008 financial crisis. Of course, the product of insufficient regulation. I wonder, does this administration plan to reverse some of the changes that came into place after that enormously costly and nearly global economy breaking event?

QUEST: In terms of financial regulation, we're not exactly sure what they're going to do. I don't think they know yet themselves. But you have to take the architecture overall.

The only real fly in the ointment about corporate profitability is this question of tariffs, far reaching tariffs. By the way, there you see the markets and you get an idea of how they are performing. But this idea of far-reaching tariffs across imported goods which could hit all sorts of companies, which is why, for instance Steve Madden, the shoe company, announced it is shifting a large part of production from China to other countries. It's known as trust shoring, even near- shoring.

The idea is make your products in places where they won't be so hit by, they will be hit by tariffs because they're not being made in the U.S., but they won't be hit by the swingeing tariffs likely to be introduced against Chinese exported goods.

SCIUTTO: Let me ask you this before we go because any person I speak to in finance brings up historically, high neither party frankly talked about it during the election campaign because neither party wants to have to deal with the costs of high debt, which would mean either both, well, really cutting spending and raising revenue.

What does the Trump administration have any plans that you've heard to address that and might it make the debt worse if especially if its cutting taxes?

QUEST: Well, we know from Goldman Sachs and from a variety of other reports that if you take the policies that he's put out already, it will raise the deficit by an extraordinary amount far more than Kamala Harris was going to. He said publicly that he will pay for that deficit by the money he raises from tariffs that importers pay.

I can tell you there is not a serious economist that will believe that the tariff income will anywhere near meet that amount. So yes, you're looking at deficit spending at a much higher level for the foreseeable future. But for the moment -- but here's the point, Jim, here's the point, as Kamala Harris would say, for the moment, the other economies like Europe, the U.K., parts of Asia are in a worse situation.

So the U.S. remains the cleanest shirt in the laundry.

SCIUTTO: I like that expression. Richard Quest, cleanest for now, thanks so much.

You can hear more about all of these issues on "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS", which is coming up in just 11 minutes or so, at the top of the hour.

[15:50:04]

QUEST: Yeah.

SCIUTTO: A fictional TV show is sparking a real life debate. Perhaps some fear as well. After the break, were going to take you to the set of an upcoming political thriller -- a thriller that imagines what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might look and feel like.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:52:55]

SCIUTTO: Well, the world is entering a new landscape with Donald Trump heading back to the White House. On Thursday, Taiwan's top diplomat to the U.S. met with the president-elect's former national security adviser, Robert O'Brien. Taiwan is extremely concerned about Trump's potential approach to the island and whether he would defend it if China were to invade.

The island is also making political waves in the entertainment industry, with that threat in mind.

CNN's Will Ripley takes a closer look at how an upcoming TV series in Taiwan is imagining what a Chinese invasion would look like.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): I'm a temple in southern Taiwan on the set of "Zero Day". UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Action!

RIPLEY (voice-over): In an upcoming 10-part series dramatizing for the first time in Taiwan's response to a looming invasion.

So why are we in a temple with a table full of money?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): Many Taiwanese temples have close relationships with China. So these money illustrate bribery in local elections.

RIPLEY: "Zero Day" begins a few months after Taiwan's general election. Producer and showrunner Cheng Hsin-mei says Taipei is distracted with a presidential transition.

How much research went into this?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Its quite a lot.

RIPLEY: "Zero Day" shows how quickly daily life in Taiwan could crumble before a single shot is fired.

China's Peoples Liberation army cuts off the island by sea and by air.

Within days of Beijing's blockade, the financial system collapses. The United States and other foreign governments rushed to evacuate their citizens.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How the United States will break through the Chinese blockade to evacuate them will be a major challenge.

RIPLEY: The island's vulnerability is exposed every day. Conveniences collapse. Water electricity and communication systems fail, supplies run out.

[15:55:02]

Food and fuel shortages create total chaos. The world is watching but hesitant to intervene, leaving Taiwan on its own.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (translated): OK, let me ask you. You think we could win?

RIPLEY: Day by day, fear spreads, chaos unfolds, divisions deepen, democracy crumbles as PLA soldiers set foot on Taiwanese soil.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (translated): Raise your hands high. Show you're not armed. Please report to the PLA if you know any hidden pro- independence activists.

RIPLEY: In a lot of these scenes, even though they're fiction, producers say they are based very much in real life.

The crew was allowed to film inside the presidential office and on board a warship, leading to accusations from China's state-run tabloid "Global Times", the project is propaganda for Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party.

It's a very sensitive topic, so taboo, in fact, that the crew, the actors the directors, they all take a risk of never being able to work in the Chinese market.

The U.S. believes China aims to have the ability to invade Taiwan by 2027. That doesn't mean Beijing has decided to invade.

What was the scariest part for you as you divided these potential scenarios in the lead up to a Chinese attack?

CHENG HSIN-MEI, SHOWRUNNER, ZERO DAY: When the panic happened, the whole society would be in disorder.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Let's hope reality doesn't imitate fiction.

Will Ripley, thanks so much for that report from Taiwan.

And thanks so much to you for joining me today. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington.

"QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" is up next.