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Holiday Sales Growth Expected to Decline; Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Deal Any Closer?; Interview With Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton. Aired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired November 26, 2024 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:30:00]

JIM ACOSTA, CNN HOST: And, I mean, we are seeing some delays, and now we're waiting to see what the prime minister is going to say in about an hour-and-a-half from now.

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, we are seeing a very complex situation get even worse, Jim.

ACOSTA: Yes.

HERTLING: And the reason this is happening with Israel bombing Beirut is because literally hundreds of rockets came out of Southern Lebanon into Israel territory again last night.

So it is a reaction to some of the things that are occurring. Israel has coordinated -- a lot of people think this is talks between Israel and Hezbollah. It is not it is talks between Israel and the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah in the southern portions of Lebanon.

They haven't been able to do that. The U.N. hasn't been able to do that. They have had a UNIFIL post in Southern Lebanon for almost 10 years now and haven't kept the Hezbollah terrorist fighters from occupying the southern portion of Lebanon and firing drones, rockets, missiles and artillery into Northern Israel.

ACOSTA: I mean, it doesn't -- I mean, it doesn't sound very promising in terms of the prospects of the cease-fire deal even holding for very long.

HERTLING: No, it doesn't, Jim.

And there's optimistic approaches by the U.S. and France, who are working these deals, trying to persuade both Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries to contribute to forcing the peace agreement with Lebanon.

But as long as Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into Israel, Israel still perceives a threat, and they are going to fight back. The indications are that Israel has devastated Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but they are still facing literally thousands -- tens of thousands of fighters, Hezbollah in in Lebanon.

And they want the government of Hezbollah to take control of those and make sure that they're not continuing to fire rockets into Northern Israel.

ACOSTA: And what does the impact have on all this of the Trump team coming back into office here in a couple of months from now?

HERTLING: Well, the hopes with the Trump team during the last administration was that the Abraham Accords would pave a way toward Israel and Saudi Arabia having increased relations, better relations, an economic tit for tat, if you will.

And with the continued attacks by all the terrorist groups in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia does not want to come back in and continue this peace process and this dialogue with Israel. So, until these terrorist groups can be stopped, Saudi Arabia is not going to take a step forward to regain what was agreed to in the Abraham Accords back in the 2020 period.

ACOSTA: And the bigger concern, obviously, for the U.S. is that this conflict sparks a larger war that includes Iran. And we have seen glimpses of that over the past year.

What's your sense of that, I mean, how that could potentially rear its ugly head again?

HERTLING: Yes, well, we have talked about this before, Jim.

ACOSTA: Yes.

HERTLING: And the tensions throughout this area, not only in Lebanon and Gaza, but against Iran, against Syria, against the PMF forces in Iraq, Yemen, the Houthis, I believe the Biden administration has been somewhat masterful in preventing this from turning into a much wider conflict.

Iran has been embarrassed by a couple of the strikes the Israelis have made over the last couple of months. They are willing to try and stop some of the -- at least the overt turmoil that's been occurring. But I got to tell you, we're still on a tinder's edge and it could certainly flare up again.

And the United States wants no part of this. And going back to your question as to what the Trump administration will do about that, I don't know.

ACOSTA: Right.

HERTLING: They seem to have brokered an agreement with Saudi Arabia to try and calm tensions in the Middle East and maybe agree upon some improved relations between Saudi Arabia and not only Israel, but also Iran.

But that's all blown apart by the October 7 attack. It's going to be very difficult to get that back together, but a lot of diplomats are working tirelessly to try and make that happen.

ACOSTA: All right, General Mark Hertling, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. HERTLING: Thanks, Jim.

ACOSTA: All right, still ahead this hour: a threat or a promise?

President-elect Donald Trump says he will begin imposing huge tariffs on some of the largest trading partners of the United States on day one. I will talk to former Trump National Security Adviser John Bolton on how he sees this panning out.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:38:50]

ACOSTA: New this morning, Mexico's president threatening to retaliate if Donald Trump follows through on enacting massive tariffs on their imports coming into the U.S.

The president-elect promising a 25 percent hike on all products coming in from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent increase from all goods coming in from China. Trump says it's punishment for failing a stem to tide of drugs and migrants.

Joining me now is Trump's former National Security Adviser, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.

Mr. Ambassador, what's your response to Trump's talk of tariffs, going after Mexico, Canada, and China on day one of this new administration?

JOHN BOLTON, FORMER U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Well, I think a lot of it is just that. It's talk -- 25 percent, 50 percent, 10 percent, who cares? They're just numbers to Trump.

And I think he's throwing smoke in the air, throwing out firecrackers and see who jumps on them. But when it comes down to it, I think he's very serious about imposing significant tariffs. And I don't think he fully understands the potential for reaction, retaliation by the European Union, Japan, China, what the economic impacts would be.

Trump really doesn't understand tariffs. He thinks foreigners pay for them. He doesn't appreciate it's American importers who pay the tariff and then American consumers who pay it indirectly when prices are raised on the imported goods.

[11:40:12]

But he believes in it, and they're coming. I hope our financial geniuses on Wall Street are taking this seriously, because it should be taken seriously.

ACOSTA: Well, and I was going to ask you a follow-up to that, and that is Trump's new pick for Treasury secretary has said in recent days that people should not worry about Trump's talk of tariffs. So, he considers Donald Trump to be a free trader. And then, lo and behold, Trump announces these tariffs are going to be happening on day one. You have some experience in this area of advisers, aides around the then-president, now soon-to-be president trying to control him, trying to talk him out of bad ideas, trying to keep him from going down the road of ill-advised policies.

Can they get through to him in a second term?

BOLTON: Well, I think it'll be a battle every day.

I sat through more endless discussions about tariffs than I care to remember, with the same arguments being made and the same people making the arguments and the same outcome day after day after day. I think Trump is more determined to wage a trade war through tariffs than before.

He's convinced himself that this is an alternative way to fund the government. He doesn't understand, I think, that Congress would willingly add another tax if they could get away with it, not reduce income taxes, but just add the higher prices that the tariffs would mean for revenue and spend even more.

So it's a pretty fundamental decision. And there are people in the administration who are absolutely determined to carry out Trump's will here. I'd say good luck to secretary-designate Bessent. I'm not sorry, but I will certainly miss the discussions, the endless, repetitive discussions he will have dealing with Trump on this subject.

ACOSTA: And I do want to ask you about some of his other Cabinet picks in just a moment.

But I want to ask you about something that really hasn't gotten a lot of attention, in special counsel Jack Smith's decision to drop both the January 6 and classified documents cases now that Trump is headed back to the White House. He cited the longstanding Justice Department policy that says you can't prosecute a sitting president.

What are your thoughts on these cases being dropped, especially the classified documents case, given that Trump took a big trove of these documents down to Mar-a-Lago and is not going to be held accountable for that?

BOLTON: Well, I'm not I'm not sure about the not being held accountable part. I think Smith is doing the right thing. I think it's the proper policy.

It's long been the Justice Department view that you shouldn't prosecute a sitting president. He's wrapping these -- Jack Smith is wrapping these cases up well before January the 20th, with one notable event yet to follow. And that's what I expect to the reports that he is writing on both the documents case and the January 6 case intended for the attorney general that are part of the regulatory structure inside the Department of Justice for independent counsels that will lay out what he found.

And I think the question is whether the public gets to see those reports, which I don't think are going to be very friendly to Trump in either the documents case or January the 6th. I have always felt, of all the many, many pieces of litigation, civil and criminal, brought against Trump that the most important one and the one I'm I think is would have been most difficult for him to avoid is the classified documents case.

And I think anybody who's dealt with classified materials knows how serious his offense was. And so that's why the report on that I think will be especially interesting.

ACOSTA: And, Mr. Ambassador, we have seen Matt Gaetz withdraws domination for attorney general. Should Tulsi Gabbard do the same for director of national intelligence?

And I guess what's your reaction to -- we have seen members of Congress make some pretty stiff claims about Tulsi Gabbard, saying that she's a China sympathizer, that she is maybe even a Russian asset. I'm sure you have heard some of these charges thrown her way. What do you make of that? And what are your concerns about her becoming the director of national intelligence?

BOLTON: Well, look, she said many things publicly that I think disqualify her. These are not just because her views are extreme. They're on a different planet.

They are the views of somebody who doesn't understand anything about American interests. And to put her in charge of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, I think, is malpractice. I think the effect that it will have on foreign governments saying, we're not sharing intelligence with the United States if it's going to come into the hands of somebody like that -- there are a lot of claims out there.

That's why the basic practice of administration after administration and Senate after Senate for all senior appointees, but particularly people nominated to sensitive national security positions, is, before the Senate votes on them, they got a full-field FBI background investigation.

[11:45:07]

This is not picking on Tulsi Gabbard or anybody else. This is how you find out what's really going on with all of them. And, sometimes, it turns up very unexpected things. But I think if the Senate were -- Trump doesn't have to order an FBI investigation, but the Senate can refuse to confirm somebody until one is held.

And I think every Republican ought to insist on it, not just because of Tulsi Gabbard, but think ahead. There will be Democratic presidents who nominate people who are going to be sketchy, to say the least. And if Republicans have said, oh, there's no need for an FBI background investigation, they're not going to be able to demand one for the nominees of a future Democratic president.

What goes around comes around. Think of the Senate's prerogatives. All Republicans, all Republicans should insist on a full field for all these nominees.

ACOSTA: And, I mean, one of the things I think people have lost sight of is the importance of the role of the director of national intelligence, which was created after 9/11, so you didn't have the stovepiping of information in the intelligence community.

You know that all too well. We saw what took place on September 11 and in the years that followed. It was a hugely costly time for this country in terms of blood and treasure. Are you concerned about just having Tulsi Gabbard in that role of director of national intelligence and the potential threat that is posed to this country by foreign terrorists?

I mean, obviously, that is that is still a threat that looms out there. Can she run an office as important as that office is?

BOLTON: Well, she has no experience in intelligence collection. She's been a modest consumer as a member of Congress, maybe some as a public affairs officer in the National Guard. I really don't know about her National Guard career, so I don't want to comment on that, but no experience in running a large operation or doing the coordination that the DNI has to do among 18 separate national intelligence agencies.

I mean, my own view is, ODNI has become excessively bureaucratic. I think there are better ways to do it. But I'm not sure that's why Tulsi Gabbard is Trump's nominee to go. He's not interested in making ODNI more efficient and effective. He wants his person in there to probe the deep state.

And I think this is going to -- since she has no knowledge whatever of what actually happens in the intelligence community, I think it's going to be a very corrosive influence. This is a bad nominee. I think, of all of what -- all the nominees Trump has put forward so far, she and Matt Gaetz were in a class by themselves.

(CROSSTALK)

ACOSTA: Well, could it drive intelligence professionals out of the ranks of that -- of the intelligence community?

BOLTON: Depending on how she performs once she gets there, it's entirely possible.

ACOSTA: Yes.

BOLTON: This is -- cannot underestimate the seriousness of her job and how unqualified she is to do it.

ACOSTA: Ambassador John Bolton, thanks, as always. We appreciate it.

BOLTON: Glad to be with you.

ACOSTA: All right.

First, Thanksgiving, then Black Friday, but you might not see as many sales and deals this holiday season. Say it ain't so. We will explain why after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:52:53]

ACOSTA: Well, 'tis the season to be jolly, but some of the price tags out there might draw some bah humbugs from holiday shoppers.

CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich joins me now.

Vanessa, I mean, one of the things that you expect this time of year is to see a lot of deals. And retailers are expecting record spending by gift givers this year. But from the look of things, sales growth will be moderate. What do you see in the days ahead?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS REPORTER: Yes, we're expecting some records, with a but.

We're expecting 183 million shoppers to head out this Thanksgiving weekend and shop, about $989 billion worth of spending, on average, about $902 per person that they will be spending on gifts this year. But we are expecting that sales growth will be moderate or average this year, in line with what we saw pre-pandemic.

Last year, we saw about 4.3 percent in sales growth. This year, we're expecting about 3.3 percent in sales growth. And that is because the consumer is being discretionary with their spending. Americans have about 30 percent more debt this Christmas than they did last Christmas.

And that's something they're considering as they're going out and shopping this season. But we know retailers will be competing for our dollars. For example, Target, which saw weaker sales in the third quarter, is offering a lot of deals and promotions in the fourth quarter, trying to bring people in the door.

On the other hand, you have a retailer like Foot Locker, which got stuck with a ton of inventory last year. So, this year, they're going to be offering less deals and less sales. But one thing that all retailers have in common gym is that this holiday shopping season is a week shorter than last year, so less time for people to shop.

That's why you have seen some promotion, some sales moved up a little bit. But, at the end of the day, that week of cushion makes a huge difference for retailers. So, at the end, inching closer to Christmas, we maybe will see a few extra deals, as retailers don't want to get stuck with any extra inventory this year, Jim.

[11:55:01]

ACOSTA: Don't put the Christmas tree up too early this year. I'm like, but Thanksgiving is late this year. So what do you expect us to do? You can't win either way.

Vanessa Yurkevich, thanks, as always. We appreciate it.

YURKEVICH: Thanks.

ACOSTA: Some positive news to bring you.

Some families who live off the grid in Alaska are getting turkeys delivered via airdrop. Take a look at this. For the last three years, Esther Sanderlin has loaded up the frozen birds and her small plane for delivery. This year, she expected drop 30 to 40 turkeys from the sky.

Listen to how she got the idea.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ESTHER SANDERLIN, ALASKAN PILOT: One weekend, I was visiting our newest neighbor, and they were talking about splitting a squirrel three ways for dinner and how that didn't really go very far.

And I just had a thought at that moment, you know what? I'm going to I'm going to drop them a turkey for Thanksgiving, because I recently rebuilt my first airplane with my dad. And so I could do that really easily.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: That's amazing. You can't drop the mashed potatoes and gravy. It's just a lot messier if you do that.

And a word of the wise. Please do not try to catch the frozen turkey when it hits the ground there. All right, she hopes to turn this mission, though, in all seriousness, into a nonprofit to reach more people across Alaska. Best of luck to her on that.

Thank you very much for joining me. I'm Jim Acosta.

Stay with us. "INSIDE POLITICS" with Manu Raju, who likes turkey, by the way, starts after a short break. Have a good day.