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Trump Optimistic about U.S.-China Tariff Deal; Negotiators Meeting in Oman for New Iran Nuclear Deal; DOJ Ordered to Update Daily on Deported Man; U.S. State Department Revokes 500+ Student Visas at 88 Universities; Consumers to Feel the Tariff Heat; Taiwan Worries about U.S.-China Economic Standoff; RFK Jr. Announces New Study of "Autism Epidemic"; Sports Highlights. Aired 5-6a ET

Aired April 12, 2025 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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IVAN WATSON, CNN ANCHOR AND SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello and welcome to all of our viewers joining us in the United States and around the world. I'm Ivan Watson in Hong Kong.

Ahead on CNN NEWSROOM, U.S. stocks rebound to close out another turbulent week. But American consumer sentiment is plummeting. We'll have the latest fallout on the escalating trade war between president Trump and China.

The U.S. and Iran are preparing for what could be their first direct talks in a decade. We'll look at the factors at play in these high- stakes nuclear discussions.

And a judge has a straightforward question for the Department of Justice.

Where is he?

Details on the case of the Maryland man the U.S. mistakenly deported to El Salvador.

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WATSON: And we begin with two very different views of how the U.S. economy is doing. President Donald Trump says it's in great shape, despite an escalating trade war with China. He said, he thinks something positive will come out of it, while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday.

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TRUMP: I want to put the country in an unbelievable economic position, which is where we should be. And it should have been done many years ago by other presidents and they didn't do it. We're making billions of dollars a day. We were losing billions of dollars a day. China now is losing billions of dollars. I don't want them to lose.

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WATSON: The U.S. stock market posted strong gains at Friday's closing after a volatile week on Wall Street. The major indices all rose by more than 1 percent. But we're seeing warning signs that many Americans are worried about prices going up.

U.S. consumer confidence numbers are down 11 percentage points since last month. That's according to a University of Michigan survey. And that's the second lowest reading in more than 70 years.

President Trump is expressing optimism about a trade deal with China after it raised its tariffs on the U.S. to 125 percent. That was in response to 145 percent tariffs on China. President Trump touted his good relationship with Chinese president Xi and called him a very smart leader.

Beijing is showing no signs of backing down. President Xi Jinping said his nation is not afraid after breaking his silence on a trade war. A spokesperson from the country's foreign ministry warns China will fight until the end.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): China has repeatedly stated its solemn position on tariffs. There are no winners in a tariff and trade war. China is unwilling but unafraid to engage in it.

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WATSON: All right. Let's bring in CNN's Mike Valerio, live in Seoul.

Mike, we've got two countries, the two world's biggest economies, in a trade war. Now the only way out, presumably, is if the two governments talk.

Do you see any sign of discussions in the near future?

MIKE VALERIO, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's the thing. That's the crucial question.

Who is going to talk to whom?

And right now, answer that, Ivan, the answer to your question is no. We're not sure if anybody is going to talk, either D.C. to Beijing in the immediate future. So therein lies the biggest problem, the underlying turmoil when it comes to the bond market.

And economic uncertainty as to where the escape, the off-ramp, the exit route is to this trade war crisis. So you know, one thing we do know in terms of the news that happened late Friday, when Beijing increased its tariff rate to 125 percent, the United States did not retaliate.

It did not raise its tariff level higher than it already is, which is above Beijing's tariff level. The United States is at 145 percent, Beijing is at 125 percent. So let's go to the statement from the commerce ministry that Beijing sent out late yesterday to get a window into Beijing's thinking.

It says in part, quote, "If the U.S. insists on continuing this numbers game with tariffs, China will not engage," meaning it won't put its tariffs any higher than they already are.

"However, if the U.S. persists in substantively harming China's interests, China will resolutely take countermeasures and fight to the end."

[05:05:04]

So Ivan, we were talking about countermeasures in the past hour.

What exactly does that mean?

Economists are telling us that it seems to suggest that China may be ending its tariff toolkit and moving on to other economic pressure, like visiting Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia in the early part of next week, pressuring those southeastern countries to ditch their business in the United States and gravitate further to China.

That could also mean not buying agricultural products from the heartland of the United States, instead buying soybeans, livestock from Brazil, other means of economic pressure. So again, unclear who's going to talk to whom first.

So let's hear from president Trump and then White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on that front. Let's listen in.

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QUESTION: Is it up to president Xi to pick up the phone?

TRUMP: I can assure you, whatever it is, it is. You know, we have a lot of countries, not just China and but whatever it is, it is anywhere. Very good position.

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QUESTION: Is he waiting for China to make the first move here?

KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I'm not going to comment on communications that are happening or may not be happening or, either way, we'll leave it to that, our national security team, to get these discussions underway.

And as always, in the effort of transparency, we will provide updates moving forward. But the president has made it very clear he's open to a deal with China.

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VALERIO: And something to keep in mind when we're talking about making this huge deal between the two largest economies in the world, Ivan, we're talking about 90 days -- well, fewer than 90 days now -- to make around 75 trade deals between most of the largest economies in the world and then add in a trade deal with China.

So talking, you know, the first person to pick up the phone should be the easiest step. And then comes the hard part. And perhaps moving along that conversation could be more uncertainty in the bond market.

We saw the 30-year Treasury yield rise to 4.95 percent last week, the largest weekly increase since 1982, according to numbers computed by Reuters and us here at CNN. The 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.5 percent. It was 4.28 percent a day before.

And why that matters is because usually people swing to the safety of Treasuries. But if they're not doing that anymore, if they don't have faith in the full faith and credit of the United States, that could send tremors through the whole economic system.

And importantly, make borrowing very expensive for people like you and me. If you have a mortgage, if you have any kind of car payment, that could make these conversations hasten and happen a little more quickly. Ivan.

WATSON: Well, Mike, thank you very much for explaining that, live from Seoul on the unfolding economic war of attrition between the U.S. and China. Thank you.

All right. Iranian negotiators have arrived in Oman ahead of nuclear talks, with the U.S. scheduled to begin in the coming hours. Iran's state news agency says the delegation is led by the country's foreign minister.

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WATSON (voice-over): You can see him in this video speaking with Omani officials. The White House is pushing for a new agreement that would stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

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WATSON: But U.S. president Donald Trump said if the deal is not reached in two months, military action is possible. During his first term, he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran and now he says he wants a stronger agreement but has not said how any new deal would be different.

This is what he said Friday night about the upcoming talks.

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TRUMP: I want them not to have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country. But they can't have a nuclear weapon. I want them to flourish but they can't have a nuclear weapon.

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WATSON: Now Salma Abdelaziz is monitoring the story and she joins us now from London.

Good to see you, Salma.

Are there any hopes of any type of breakthrough in these discussions, which could be the first-in-a-decade face-to-face between these two governments?

SALMA ABDELAZIZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I think the best way to see these talks is that they're really talks about talks. This is a high-stakes meeting, of course. But it is fundamentally about seeing if there's any open ground here to even make a deal.

There's a great deal of mistrust, of course, between these two parties. On Iran's part, of course, after president Trump pulled out of the JCPOA deal only a few years into it in 2018, there is a sense of why should they believe the American delegation.

For Trump's part, he's saying, look, you make a deal or we're going to start a war. And these talks have already begun with a miscommunication, Ivan. The United States is insisting these talks are direct. Iran is saying they are indirect. Take a listen to the White House press secretary. Try to break it down.

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KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Ultimate goal. And the ultimate objective is to ensure that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon. The president believes in diplomacy, direct talks, talking directly in the same room in order to achieve that goal.

But he's made it very clear to the Iranians, and his national security team will as well, that all options are on the table. And Iran has a choice to make. You can agree to president Trump's demand or there will be all hell to pay.

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ABDELAZIZ: Now as you heard there, president Trump wielding the stick. But Steve Witkoff, of course, his lead on these talks is going to be coming with the carrots.

And what can he offer Iran?

Well, the first thing they want is, of course, sanctions relief. The economy there has been suffering, of course, under the stranglehold of sanctions. And it is seeking greater opportunities. It is seeking the opportunity to open up economically.

But why and how will this deal even look different than the previous nuclear deal?

That's the question that many negotiators are asking, with president Trump promising an even stronger deal. That may indicate the possibility that the U.S. is going to ask for a full dismantling of Iran's program, including the civilian component. That's an absolute nonstarter for Iran.

I do want to read you something that Iran's foreign minister, who's the lead negotiator there, wrote in "The Washington Post" a few days ago.

"This is as much an opportunity as it is a test."

I think both sides are seeing that, seeing it that way today, Ivan, as they see whether or not there's even space here for future negotiations.

WATSON: All right. Salma Abdelaziz live in London. Thank you very much for bringing us up to date.

Now the U.S. special envoy's talks involving Iran, they come just one day after he met with Russian president Vladimir Putin. CNN's Fred Pleitgen has more on Steve Witkoff and how he became one of president Trump's top diplomats.

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FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Friday's meeting between president Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg, Russia, was the third meeting of the two men.

And the Russians are saying that the meeting between these two lasted more than four hours. And they say that there were essentially two main topics that were discussed. One of them was, of course, the war in Ukraine and the possible ending of the conflict in Ukraine. Of course, that is something that is proving to be quite difficult.

But the Russians are also saying that apparently a possible normalization in relations between Russia and the United States is also something that would be on the agenda for these talks.

Now all of this comes as a ceasefire in Ukraine remains very difficult to come by. And it certainly appears as though president Trump's frustration appears to be growing. He posted on his Truth Social account that he thinks Russia needs to "get moving," as he put it, that "people are DYING."

He wrote that in capital letters and saying that thousands were dying each week. So clearly the Trump administration believes that the Russians need to move forward and get a ceasefire going. Of course, we do know that, about a month ago, the Ukrainians actually unconditionally said they would agree to a ceasefire with Russia.

So far, however, the Russians are saying that they want the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine to be dealt with before a ceasefire can be put in place.

All of this, as generally progress remains very difficult to come by, as far as possible ending of fighting in Ukraine is concerned, right now, what is in place is a determination by both the Ukrainians and Russians not to hit certain targets, including energy infrastructure. However, for instance, a different agreement to end fighting in the

Black Sea and allow for agricultural exports via the Black Sea, that is so far not in place yet, because the Russians are saying that they want substantial sanctions relief before that can happen.

It's unclear how much was achieved in this latest round of talks between Steve Witkoff and the Russian president. However, the head of the Russian direct investment fund, Kirill Dmitriev, who is also one of the top negotiators for the Russians, he called the meeting productive -- Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Berlin.

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WATSON: To the Middle East, Israel is warning residents in some parts of Gaza City to evacuate ahead of military operations. This comes as Israel looks to create a buffer zone to separate Palestinians from Israeli communities along the Gaza border.

The U.N. now estimates close to 400,000 Palestinians have been displaced in Gaza since the ceasefire collapsed last month.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): This is the billionth time I am displaced. I can't walk. I have back cartilage pain in my back. I have high blood pressure. I have diabetes. I can't walk. Enough terrorizing us.

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WATSON: Coming up, a legal victory for the Trump administration in its efforts to deport a legal permanent resident of the United States because of his pro-Palestinian protests.

Plus, why the U.S. commander in chief says troops need to take control of public lands along the U.S. southern border. More on those stories next.

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WATSON: Welcome back to the program.

A federal judge has ordered the Justice Department to provide daily updates on what they're doing to facilitate a wrongly deported man's return to the United States. Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a Maryland father of three who was sent to an El Salvador prison. The White House says it was an administrative error.

On Thursday, the Supreme Court ordered the White House to get him back to the U.S. But did not give a deadline for his return. And here is what president Trump told reporters on a flight to Mar-a-Lago.

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QUESTION: How does the administration, how do you plan to respond to the Supreme Court ruling and the other courts, about the gentleman who is from Maryland, who was put in the El Salvador prison?

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TRUMP: Is that the one that was not Tren de Aragua but he was MS-13?

QUESTION: Just the one that they've said needs to come back.

TRUMP: No, but was he MS-13?

Because I only know about that, I mean. I don't know which one. But if the Supreme Court said, Bring somebody back, I would do that. I respect the Supreme Court.

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WATSON: Abrego Garcia's lawyers say the White House isn't trying to follow the court's order.

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SIMON SANDOVAL-MOSHENBERG, ATTORNEY FOR KILMAR ABREGO GARCIA: I don't think there's anyone in this country who believes the government when they say, well, we don't -- you know, we don't know how to do this.

We can't -- we can't figure out how to get someone out of Salvadoran jail.

They got Kristi Noem out of a Salvadoran jail, right?

I mean, they can get Kilmer Abrego Garcia out of that same jail.

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WATSON: His attorney says Abrego Garcia fled gang violence in El Salvador more than a decade ago. In 2019, an immigration judge granted him protected status, which should have prevented his deportation. CNN's Paula Reid has more on the story.

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PAULA REID, CNN CHIEF LEGAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: In a tense hearing in federal court on Friday, a judge expressed frustration with lawyers from the Trump Justice Department, who would not say where Mr. Abrego Garcia currently is.

And also could not provide any information about steps the administration has taken to facilitate his return. So after a series of questions from the judge, these lawyers would not answer.

She assigned them some homework. They now have to do daily status reports, updating the court on the steps they are taking to facilitate his return.

Now this hearing is really part of a larger battle that the administration is waging against the courts, against judges who oppose Trump's agenda with nationwide injunctions or otherwise tell them what to do.

Now this is Separation of Powers 101. Judges do have a right to do this. And, of course, the administration has a right to appeal. But after the Supreme Court's really ambiguous order on Thursday night, both sides declared victory.

It was clear that these federal lawyers were kind of exploiting that ambiguity in the hearing on Friday, refusing to answer questions for the judge. And again, the Supreme Court hasn't given any deadline for this facilitation to occur. So all of the parties will be back in court on Tuesday -- Paula Reid, CNN, Washington.

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WATSON: And an update on a different U.S. deportation case. A Louisiana immigration judge ruled on Friday that a pro-Palestinian activist, who is a legal permanent resident of the U.S., can be deported.

Mahmoud Khalil is a Columbia University graduate who led the protests at the Ivy League school last year against Israel's war in Gaza. His legal team plans to appeal the ruling. They say the judge's decision was a violation of Khalil's constitutional rights. Khalil also has an ongoing case in New Jersey. CNN's Gloria Pazmino has more.

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GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right. And it's important to remember that, despite this judge's finding, that Khalil is, in fact, removable from the United States, it's unlikely that he will be removed from the country anytime soon.

The reason for that is because his attorneys have made it clear they plan to appeal that decision. Now it's important to remember that there are two cases unfolding here, the one in Louisiana, which is focused on his immigration proceeding and his immigration, his deportation order.

And the one in New Jersey, which focuses on the constitutionality and the legality of his detention. Remember, Khalil's attorneys have said that his detention is illegal because he is being targeted for his for his speech and for his political activity in violation of the First Amendment.

Now although the immigration judge has said that she believes Khalil will be deportable, the other case in New Jersey continues to advance.

Now we should also highlight that the Louisiana judge made that determination based on a piece of evidence submitted by the government, a two-page memo written by secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in which he laid out the reasons why Khalil is deportable, specifically citing his protest activity.

Again, his attorneys focused on the fact that that activity is protected by the First Amendment, something that not just U.S. citizens are protected by but also permanent U.S. residents like Khalil.

In the meantime, his attorneys remain focused on trying to get him released from detention. They are hoping that a judge in New Jersey will hear a motion asking for his release. It's not yet clear whether or not that will happen.

But it seems like, for now, the case is far from over and Khalil will have to remain in custody -- Gloria Pazmino, CNN, New York.

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WATSON: All right.

[05:25:00]

The U.S. State Department has now revoked more than 500 student visas across 88 colleges and universities. It's an expansion of the government's mass deportation efforts.

In statements, some of the schools affected say it does not appear that the government is detaining people whose visas have been revoked. It's not clear if those students must immediately leave the country or can stay to continue their education.

President Trump is authorizing troops to take control of federal and public lands along the U.S.-Mexico border. He has sent a memo to agency heads, instructing them to permit military usage.

The memo provides the Defense Department with jurisdiction over lands for purposes that include border wall construction and the installation of detection and monitoring equipment. It excludes federal Indian reservations.

Meanwhile, the president scored a partial victory on Friday in his drive to slash the size of the federal government. An appeals court says his administration can shrink the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau but it cannot dismantle it entirely.

The ruling will give Mr. Trump's appointees leeway to cut the bureau's footprint significantly but the agency must be able to carry out its basic functions and the case could still be appealed, including to the Supreme Court.

U.S. experts predict Trump's trade war on China that it could hit average American households hard. Those numbers are coming up after the break.

Plus, the U.S. Health Secretary says he's launching a major study into autism. Critics wonder if it will produce honest results. Stay with CNN.

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WATSON: Welcome back to CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Ivan Watson, live in Hong Kong. Let's check in on some of today's top stories.

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WATSON (voice-over): U.S. and Iranian negotiators are set to begin critical nuclear talks in Oman in the coming hours. Iran's foreign minister arrived there earlier today. The U.S. says it wants a new agreement that will stop Iran from making a nuclear weapon.

U.S. president Donald Trump has given Iran two months to reach the agreement or face possible military action.

A federal immigration judge ruled on Friday that a pro-Palestinian activist, who is a legal permanent resident of the U.S., can be deported. Mahmoud Khalil is a Columbia University graduate who led protests against Israel's war in Gaza last year. Khalil's legal team is expected to appeal the ruling.

U.S. president Donald Trump seemed optimistic about a trade deal with China while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday. He touted his good relationship with Chinese president Xi and called him a very smart leader. That's despite China raising its retaliatory tariffs to 125 percent.

WATSON: Updated research from Yale University's Budget Lab estimates that tariffs will cost the typical middle class American household $3,700 a year. That's up about $250 to reflect Mr. Trump's 145 percent tariffs on China. And that means higher consumer prices all around the world.

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NATASHA SARIN, PRESIDENT, THE BUDGET LAB, YALE UNIVERSITY: As a result of the tariffs that are in place currently and have been announced, which is the 10 percent across-the-board tariff.

And these 145 percent tariff rate on Chinese goods, you're in a situation where, in the United States, you have the highest tariff rates that we've had at any moment in the last century.

And what you're seeing vis-a-vis China is kind of -- and frankly, understandably -- this ratcheting-up effect, where the United States launched this trade war, sort of very substantially increased tariff rates on the Chinese. And the Chinese have three times since increased tariff rates right back on the United States.

The key thing to understand is, in a trade war, the consumers cannot win. So what the American people are going to experience -- and The Yale Budget Lab, which I run, has kind of crunched the numbers here.

They're going to experience price increases across the board because it turns out a lot of things that they buy come from China.

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WATSON: The Budget Lab also estimates that by the end of this year, the U.S. Unemployment rate will rise by about 6-10 of a percent, which amounts to about 740,000 lost jobs.

Tariffs, retaliation and a lack of dialogue are not only raising tensions between the U.S. and China, the transactional nature of the standoff is also worrying some in Taiwan, which China claims as its own. CNN's Will Ripley has more from Taipei.

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WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): On China's tightly controlled social media, censors are letting nationalist voices grow louder.

If China can keep the 125 percent tariff for three months, then we won't have any issues taking back Taiwan. Since China and the U.S. have already severed economic and trade relations, why not take this opportunity to recover Taiwan?

We need a civil war to divert attention. Recovering Taiwan cannot be delayed any longer.

JIA WEN-JI, FORMER TAIWANESE DIPLOMAT, TV INFLUENCER: At this time, China is confronting the United States and has seized the best opportunity.

RIPLEY: Nationalist influencers are framing democratic, self- governing Taiwan as leverage, even though China's communist leaders have never controlled it. Fuel for Chinas escalating trade war with the U.S.

And China feels emboldened. Its top electric vehicle maker, BYD, is now outselling Tesla and doesn't even bother selling passenger cars to the U.S. a sign Beijing doesn't fear economic isolation.

Some in China even see this trade war as a dress rehearsal, testing how resilient the country's economy might be if there ever were a real war for Taiwan.

JIA: China is united from top to bottom. Politically speaking, this system is very superior.

RIPLEY: This week, China's foreign ministry posted a quote from former Chinese leader Mao Zedong from the Korean War era, the last time China and the U.S. clashed directly on the battlefield.

Back then, Mao made his position clear China would not bend to American pressure. Today, Chinese President Xi Jinping also wants to project strength to Washington and his own people. For Beijing, this isn't just about pride. It's about power.

[05:35:00]

And Taiwan's chip industry may be the prize.

Behind these walls, some of the world's most advanced, highly secretive technology. It's so secret you have to check your phone, your laptop, anything that emits a signal just to walk through the door.

I visited Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company last year. TSMC makes most of the world's advanced microchips.

TRUMP: As you know, Taiwan pretty much has a monopoly on that market.

RIPLEY: Last month, TSMC announced a $165 billion U.S. investment, a political win for U.S. president Donald Trump. But in Taiwan, it triggered alarm for some.

TAMMY CHAO, RETIREE: Trump is flipping the whole world upside down and TSMC is Taiwan's treasure. I don't feel it's safe. He's a businessman, so he'll deal Taiwan.

RIPLEY: Right now, both leaders are playing hardball. Trump says he's ready to talk but only if Xi makes the first move.

But Beijing reacts differently. No call initiated, no compromise made. A dangerous standoff where protocol and pride are getting in the way of diplomacy.

And as the world's two biggest economies wait each other out. Ordinary people here in Taiwan worry what might get traded away in a deal made by two powerful men, each too proud to pick up the phone -- Will Ripley, CNN, Taipei.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WATSON: Internal documents obtained by CNN show the administration is set to eviscerate weather and climate research. The drastic cuts could go into effect immediately, just as weather becomes more erratic and costly.

The White House plans to eliminate the research arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Weather and climate labs are to be closed, while education and grant programs could be slashed. The moves could cripple U.S. industries, including agriculture, which depend on accurate climate data.

It could also halt research on deadly weather, including severe storms and tornadoes.

Now for years, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has falsely linked autism to vaccines and now he's ordering a massive study to learn the cause of what he says is an autism epidemic. And he says, by September, he should have the answer. CNN's Meg Tirrell explains why many medical experts are skeptical.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MEG TIRRELL, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the response from scientists and the autism community was really incredulity that a study that would be rigorous and large and would seek true answers here really could be done in just five months.

There's also skepticism that this is being undertaken in good faith, both because of RFK Jr.'s past comments about the causes of autism and falsely linking them to vaccines but also a comment that president Trump made in response to this announcement from Kennedy. Take a listen.

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TRUMP: If you can come up with that answer, where you stop taking something, you stop eating something or maybe it's a shot. But something's causing it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TIRRELL: President Trump there saying, quote, "maybe it's a shot," It's important to note that dozens of studies have shown no relationship between vaccines and autism.

And vaccine scientist, Dr. Paul Offit, writing the morning after this announcement, quote, "It doesn't take a psychic to see where this is going."

He pointed out there have been 2 dozen studies specifically on the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, showing that children who get that vaccine are no more likely to be diagnosed with autism than children who don't get that vaccine.

And in fact, the National Institutes of Health, which is expected to be involved in this study, says on its website, quote, "No link has been found between autism and vaccines, including those containing thimerosal, a mercury-based compound."

It is true, however, that autism rates have been rising over time. Back in 2000, the rate was about 1:150 kids in the United States who were diagnosed with autism. That rate by 2020 had risen to 1:36 kids.

And RFK Jr. suggested we're about to see new data that will show it's up to 1:31 kids, so that is a precipitous rise. But what advocates and researchers say is that a lot of that is driven by better diagnoses and a better understanding and a more inclusive understanding of what autism is.

So improved screening tools and processes and earlier detection, all of those are really driving these rates higher. There's also been a lot of research into what the drivers of autism are. Some of them are thought to be genetic. There are also thought to be potential environmental factors.

However, experts point out that among the best studied are vaccines. And despite past comments from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falsely linking the two, there is no evidence suggesting that vaccines are the culprit here. So we will see where this study ends up by September.

[05:40:00]

But a lot of folks worried that not only will it have a preordained and false finding but that it could further stigmatize the autism community, who really would rather see inclusion and support.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WATSON: Coming up, possible military action hangs over Iran ahead of nuclear talks with the U.S. Still ahead, a closer look at the negotiations as the White House tries to keep Iran from creating nuclear weapons. Stay with CNN.

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WATSON: All right, a developing story coming to us from Greece. Police in the capital, Athens, say an explosion occurred outside the offices of Hellenic Train, part of the nation's rail system.

Police cordoned off the area after two Greek media organizations received warning calls that an explosive device would go off within 35 minutes. A suspicious-looking bag was spotted outside the building, which was evacuated. There have been no immediate claims of responsibility or of injuries.

The Greek rail system has been the focal point of protests since a deadly train crash in 2023 killed 57 people, mostly students. Many Greeks view the crash as a reflection of neglect of the country's railways and of a persistent failure by the state to address safety concerns.

Moving on to Iran and its nuclear program, regional tensions and possible military action. That's all at stake as the U.S. and Iran prepare for nuclear talks, set to get underway in Oman. Iran's foreign minister arrived there earlier today.

The U.S. says it wants a new agreement that will stop Iran from making a nuclear weapon. But if there are no results in two months, U.S. president Donald Trump says military strikes will be an option. Meanwhile, he hasn't said how a new agreement would be different from the one that he abandoned during his first term.

[05:45:05]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) WATSON: Sanam Vakil is the director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House and she joins us now live from London with more analysis.

Good to see you. Sanam. I guess --

(CROSSTALK)

SANAM VAKIL, DIRECTOR, MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE: Thanks for having me.

WATSON: No problem.

You know, I've covered many rounds of nuclear talks involving Tehran and other diplomats. Anytime U.S. and Iranian negotiators are in the same room, it's kind of a big deal. But it seems we're getting mixed messages from Tehran and Washington on whether or not this will be face-to-face or negotiations through a mediator.

VAKIL: Yes, you're quite right. This is a big deal if they do meet face to face. Technically both Tehran and Washington have not sat in the same room together since the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement was indeed signed. So being in the same room could help facilitate a quicker negotiation, break down any differences.

But the Iranians are dragging their feet and trying to avoid that direct discussion because there is mistrust between both sides. And part of the Iranian negotiating strategy has been to use the indirect negotiations to drag out the timelines and put greater pressure on the opponent negotiating side.

WATSON: And what about what kind of position does Tehran come to the table from?

Its proxies in the region have been badly battered by Israel. It has itself been bombed by Israel. The U.S. is a very close ally in the Middle East.

Does it come with any cards to play in these talks?

VAKIL: Well, I think you're quite right. Iran is in a weakened posture after the 18 months of confrontation with Israel. Its economy is also in a dire situation after many years of sanctions. It's taking its toll.

The regime, of course, worries that there will be protests. And so Iran does look like the weaker party. But Iran is not a state that necessarily compromises or rolls over easily. It sees itself in a defensive posture but it believes that it has a right to enrich uranium because it is a signatory of the nonproliferation treaty and it's looking to defend that.

Right?

What it is ultimately seeking is constraints on its nuclear program in exchange for meaningful constraints -- removals -- sorry -- of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. So they'll be debating what those constraints on the nuclear program can and will be and what the U.S. really has to offer for Iran.

WATSON: Are we getting any sense of what the Trump administration does want to offer, aside from threats of military action?

Are there any kind of inducements that you're hearing they're bringing to the table?

VAKIL: Well, the president himself has said that he is primarily focused on preventing Iran from weaponizing its program.

And secondly, he believes that, effectively, he can make Iran great again. So I think the economic opportunities that can be built, which, of course, is hard to imagine after over four decades of a very tense adversarial relationship, I think those are what's on offer.

Ultimately withdrawing the military threat would be very important for Tehran. And I think that is also motivating the negotiations for a quick win. And for these negotiations to continue, I think both sides would have to show some degree of compromise over the military threats.

Tehran would like those removed and would like to agree to focusing on nuclear constraints in exchange for sanctions relief. And we'll have to see what else the Trump team is going to bring to the table.

If they're going to try to seek that broader deal, that perhaps gets Tehran to commit to even addressing its ballistic missile program and its support for proxies in the region. And that would be a deal that would be supported, not just by Europeans but also by Israel. And that would be important.

WATSON: And one last final question in just a brief moment here. Israel must be watching this very closely with some concern.

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What will Israel be looking for as these two sides meet in Oman?

VAKIL: I think this is certainly not prime minister Netanyahu's chosen way forward. He has been trying to press president Trump for military strikes. Israel will be looking to see what is actually on the table.

And if the negotiations continue, this is going to be a long and detailed negotiation if we're going to arrive at meaningful constraints on Iran's nuclear program. Israel does not want to see something quick. Israel needs a sustainable deal that will really roll back Iran's nuclear program.

WATSON: OK. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, live from London, thank you very much for sharing your analysis.

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WATSON: And stay with CNN. We'll have more news coming up after this short break.

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WATSON: Welcome back.

After Alexander Ovechkin broke the National Hockey Leagues all-time scoring record, his team, the Washington Capitals, came up with an unusual celebration. Ovi cuddled a live baby goat.

[05:55:00]

That's an allusion to his bid to be the GOAT or the greatest of all time on the ice. Other goats in the arena wore his jersey. Last Sunday, Ovechkin scored his 895th career goal, overtaking what many believed was the unbeatable record held by The Great One himself, Wayne Gretsky.

That wraps up this hour of CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Ivan Watson in Hong Kong. Stay with us, please, for our upcoming coverage. For our viewers in North America, "CNN THIS MORNING" is next. For the rest of the world, it's "AFRICAN VOICES: CHANGEMAKERS."