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India, Pakistan on the Brink of War in the Contested Kashmir Region; Second Day of Conclave Begins; World Leaders to Attend Russia's Victory Day Parade. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired May 08, 2025 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

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ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world and to everyone streaming us on CNN Max. I'm Rosemary Church.

Just ahead, the hotly contested Kashmir region is on high alert as tensions between India and Pakistan escalate. What we know about the latest clashes.

Conclave is in session and people are eager to find out who the next pope will be. We have a live report from Rome as the next round of voting kicks off.

Plus, diplomacy and military might on display in Moscow. Who's expected to attend and who's already arrived for the Victory Day parade?

UNKNOWN (voice-over): Live from Atlanta, this is "CNN Newsroom" with Rosemary Church.

CHURCH: Thanks for joining us.

Reports of more shelling between India and Pakistan across their de facto border in the disputed Kashmir region as fears grow that the two sides are on the brink of a wider conflict. Pakistan is vowing to retaliate after India launched military strikes against its neighbor over tensions in the region.

Pakistan's military says the death toll has risen to 31 with 57 people wounded. Those casualties coming from the initial strikes as well as Indian gunfire at the line of control.

The Pakistani Defense Minister says India's attacks on the country and on Pakistan-administered Kashmir were a quote "clear-cut violation." But he says Islamabad is trying to avoid a full-fledged war.

Pakistan's Prime Minister says he has authorized the military to carry out corresponding actions and it has pledged to only hit military targets in India, not civilian. Meanwhile, a senior Indian defense source told CNN shelling by

Pakistan has killed at least 12 civilians and wounded 57. Residents in India-administered Kashmir describe a night of confusion and tension after more shelling by Pakistani forces across the border with those living in some areas ordered to evacuate.

Both countries have had near-daily exchanges of fire since the April 22nd massacre of tourists in India-administered Kashmir that sparked this latest conflict.

Pakistan has reopened its airspace after India's attacks prompted its closure and disrupted airline flights in the region. More than 20 airports across northern India will remain closed until Saturday.

CNN's Kristie Lu Stout is covering all of this live from Hong Kong. She joins us now. Good to see you again, Kristie. So, what is the latest on this escalating conflict?

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Rosemary, we are in this sort of holding pattern as we await what's next. Pakistan says it is vowing to retaliate after India's military strikes on Wednesday in the wake of that tourist massacre in Kashmir. And India, meanwhile, is saying if Pakistan responds, India will respond.

So, all this generating a lot of concern of a deepening, widening conflict. We are continuing to keep a close eye on the human cost of this conflict. Pakistan is saying at least 31 people have been killed as a result of Indian military activity.

We also heard from the Pakistani Prime Minister who gave this televised address to the nation, a defiant one, saying that India will pay the price. And he also shared this message.

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SHEHBAZ SHARIF, PAKISTANI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): Perhaps they thought that we would retreat, but they forgot that by the grace of Allah Almighty, we are a nation of brave people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LU STOUT: Now, India says at least 12 people were killed by Pakistan cross-border shelling, dozens of people injured. We've been looking at video of the wounded, the injured being sent to hospital and being treated there. And survivors have been speaking out and sharing their stories. I want you to listen to this.

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SIBIR HASSAN, VILLAGER (through translator): There were 14 to 15 small explosions during the cross-border shelling during the night. Children and elderly are in a state of fear and panic, and that is why they have fled their homes.

(END VIDEO CLIP) LU STOUT: Now, India says a total of nine sites were targeted on Wednesday during that military strike. These were, in India's words, quote, "terrorist infrastructure," both inside Pakistan proper and in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Among the sites targeted a religious school in Muridke. This is a town located near Lahore in eastern Pakistan.

[03:05:05]

And we have fresh satellite imagery to share with you that depicts the aftermath of these strikes. On your left, you see the religious school before the strikes. And after that, on your right, you see what remains, scorched earth and charred buildings.

And locals told Reuters that five missiles rained down and killed three people in that building. Now, there have been losses for India as well, the loss of human life, as mentioned earlier, as well as military assets. The Pakistan military claiming that it shot down five Indian aircraft, including those elite French-made Rafale jets.

A French government source telling CNN one Rafale jet was lost in combat. And now we're hearing this interesting messaging, not from New Delhi, not straight from the capital of India, but from India's embassy in China, calling reports of these lost or downed aircraft as, quote, "disinformation".

Back to you, Rosemary.

CHURCH: All right. Our thanks to Kristie Lu Stout in Hong Kong with that report. I appreciate it.

Well earlier--

All right. Earlier, I spoke with CNN senior military analyst Admiral James Stavridis, he is a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and a partner at the Carlyle Group, a global investment firm. And I asked him where he sees this conflict going from here if more global pressure isn't applied on India and Pakistan.

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ADM. JAMES STAVIRDIS, CNN SR. MILITARY ANALYST, FORMER NATO SUPREME COMMANDER, AND PARTNER, CARLYLE: I fear we're in for some level of escalation. I don't think either side, Rosemary, thank God, are planning on breaking out nuclear weapons. We're a long way from that.

But there are innumerable options available to both these countries to include massive airstrikes, artillery barrages, and something very few are talking about. This could turn into a war at sea.

India has a very strong navy. Pakistan, a reasonably capable coastal navy. You can see confrontations at sea as well.

So let's hope, and I believe, the nuclear option will remain in the barracks, so to speak. But what I am concerned about is an escalation of conventional force.

And I'll close with this. I'm with Malala. Let's get some constraint here.

Let's start figuring out how to walk this back. For the international community, there needs to be more diplomatic effort made both to Islamabad and to Delhi.

CHURCH: Yes, let's talk about that. Since Pakistan and India gained independence from Britain in 1947, they have had four major wars. Three of them started in a very similar way, didn't they? Lasting up to 15 months in some instances, with thousands killed.

And now, of course, both the nuclear-armed nations, making it even more imperative that tensions are de-escalated sooner rather than later. So what role should the United States specifically be playing at this time?

STAVRIDIS: I think the United States could best influence what's happening if President Trump were to call Prime Minister Modi. By all accounts, they have a very good personal relationship. The two nations are in the middle of trade talks.

I think there's some leverage there. U.S. investment is high and growing in India, typically at the expense of China. So at the moment, I think the U.S. can best attempt to de-escalate by working with India.

Conversely, I would say to President Xi Jinping of China, that is the group that could put additional leverage and pressure on Islamabad. So I think if China were to roll in on the leadership in Pakistan, the U.S. were to do the same in India, I think that would be very helpful.

And frankly, I'd also like to see European Union leaders, U.K. has strong relationships with India, Russia has strong relationships with India. This really is all hands on deck, Rosemary, to hopefully put a cap on this before it leads into a higher level of war.

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CHURCH: We turn now to our other top story. Day two of the conclave to select a new pope begins in about an hour. We are looking at live pictures out of Vatican City where 133 cardinals will cast secret ballots to elect Pope Francis' successor.

A large crowd watched the chimney for white smoke on Wednesday, which would have signaled that a new pope had been chosen to lead 1.4 billion Catholics around the world. Here's what some of them say they're hoping to see.

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UNKNOWN: Someone that's very much like Francis was. Humble.

UNKNOWN: Integrity, honesty, care for everybody out in the world.

UNKNOWN: I'm hoping that this pope will be more like Saint Pope John Paul II and lead the church and unify the church and just be a lovely shepherd for all of us.

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CHURCH: On Wednesday, there was black smoke billowing from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, indicating that a new pope had not been chosen. The cardinals could cast up to four rounds of throughout the day to choose the next pontiff.

So let's go live to Rome now and CNN's Ben Wedemann. Good to see you, Ben. So what's the scene there right now as the second day of the conclave gets underway? And of course, how will day two play out?

BEN WEDEMANN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Rosemary, it is about 9:00 in the morning here in Rome. And at the moment, I think the journalists outnumber anybody else on this square. But that's going to change as the day progresses.

As you said, there's going to be four votes today, and only there will be the smoke after the morning sessions and after the evening session. So at this point, we're just going to have to keep a very close eye on that little chimney that's been installed above the Sistine Chapel. This is the second day now of the conclave.

Now, I was reading in the "New York Times" that it is no cell phones, no internet, no television, no contact with the outside world. That sounds pretty nice.

However, these 133 cardinals are cooped up in the Casa Santa Marta, which is the Vatican residence that was built under the instructions of John Paul II to house cardinals during the conclave. So they'll be shuttling between the Casa Santa Marta and the Sistine Chapel as this conclave continues.

Now, there's sort of factors pulling in both directions in terms of whether it's going to be a short conclave or a longer conclave, keeping in mind, of course, that many of these cardinals have never met before. It's really a question of getting to know one another and getting to know the process of how this conclave, how a conclave actually functions.

At the same time, these are 133 individuals who are away from home. They are living in rather uncomfortable conditions, and of course, they are deprived of any access to the news, to television, to communications, and perhaps they might get a little restless as the time progresses.

So we'll just have to wait and see. As I said, keep a very close eye on that chimney. There will only be two instances of smoke coming out of it today, not after each vote, but this is how it's going to be.

Now, the expectation is that this is perhaps going to go on longer than what we saw in 2013 and 2005, when it was just five votes, essentially one in the evening of the first day of the conclave, four in the second day, resulting in a pope. It may go a little longer than that.

Rosemary?

CHURCH: All right. We shall see what happens. Ben Wedemann, joining us there live. I appreciate it, we'll be watching closely.

Well, there has, of course, been much speculation about which cardinal will lead the Catholic Church into the future, and here are some of the top contenders.

The Archbishop of Kinshasa leads more than seven million Catholics and represents the growing church of Africa. Jean-Claude Hollerich was one of France's closest personal advisors and a strong advocate for reform within the church.

Pietro Parolin is Secretary of State for the Holy See. He is considered more cautious and conservative than Francis, but with a deep knowledge of the global church.

Robert Prevost is an American who leads a powerful Vatican office overseeing bishop appointments, and Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is often referred to as the Asian Francis because of his close association to the pope's pastoral priorities.

And I do want to go to Rome now and bring in Elise Allen, CNN Vatican analyst and senior correspondent for Crux Now. Good to have you with us.

ELISE ALLEN, CNN VATICAN ANALYST AND SR. CORRESPONDENT, CRUX NOW: Good morning, Rosemary. It's wonderful to be with you.

CHURCH: Oh, great to have you.

Of course, as the second day of the conclave gets underway, what can we expect in the coming hours, given how long the first day took?

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ALLEN: Well, you know, that was quite unique. I think it was the first day there were a lot of guys, you know, that haven't done this before. 80 percent of the cardinals have been were appointed by Pope Francis.

So that's a lot of people who have not been through this process before. And it just, you know, took a little bit longer to get things done. You know, we assume.

So today there are going to be four votes that take place. So the cardinals around, you know, this time right now are, you know, saying their morning prayers and getting into the Sistine Chapel and getting ready to cast their first ballot of the day. It's the second ballot of the overall conclave.

And we can expect smoke today sometime around 12, 12:30, like just after noon local time. And then perhaps in the evening around 8:00, who knows, it might be later, though, as last night proved, you know, unless we get a pope. If we get a pope, there could be smoke earlier, but we're not necessarily anticipating that today.

So there's going to be a lot of waiting, a lot of crowds hanging out and waiting to see that smoke come up when it does come.

CHURCH: And I do want to look at that point you touched on, because this is the most globally diverse College of Cardinals representing 71 countries, just as Pope Francis wanted. And of course, he appointed most of them, as you pointed out. But that global diversity means, of course, that some cardinals don't speak Italian and they don't know each other very well.

So how did they remedy that in the confines of this conclave? What are the opportunities they have to talk with each other, to get to know each other and understand who they would be voting for?

ALLEN: That's a great question. You know, it's not, you know, they're cut off from the world, you know, so they're basically on lockdown from us, you know, but not from each other. So they're all staying in one very small space together. They have opportunities, you know, to talk during meals and during whatever little downtime they do have.

You know, so the cardinals, you know, are in there in the mornings, but they'll have lunch together, a time for rest after that in the afternoons. And then, you know, so they can chat during those hours, you know, and talk about how the vote is going.

And, you know, if they think, you know, this candidate has enough votes or not, or should we take things in a different direction, you know, and take sort of the temperature of things, you know, and status updates along the way.

And they'll have the opportunity to do that again in the evening when they break after the vote, you know, each round of voting is going to give them some indication on where things are at, you know, if there's been a shift in some way.

And, you know, so they do have those little moments along the way in the mornings, in the afternoons, the evenings, when they're not being in the Sistine Chapel saying nothing, you know, just concentrating on that vote. So in between, they're very much taking advantage of those moments to talk to one another to get to know one another a little bit better.

If they -- in case they see, you know, that they want to take things in a different direction, or if they see movement in one direction, they want to keep going with that. So those brief moments they do have are very important for (inaudible).

CHURCH: And given we saw how much longer that first day took than it usually does, how long do you think the whole process will take? How long do you think it'll be before we find out who the next pope is? And of course, we have looked at the top contenders, but who do you consider to be the most likely future popes? ALLEN: Well, that's what everybody's asking, right? We all want to

know. It's a very big question, you know, and it's a very big consideration, you know, especially with so many cardinals this time and so many candidates.

You know, we're expecting, you know, the conclave this time to take a little bit longer than it has perhaps in the past, just because there are more cardinals, and especially more cardinals who did not know one another going into this process.

So perhaps, you know, instead of two, two and a half days, it might stretch into three or four. That would not be abnormal in this situation.

So if it's a short conclave, I think the favorite is, you know, the Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who was Secretary of State under Pope Francis. He was the strong front runner going into the conclave. He had a lot of support.

And, you know, amongst some blocks, you know, particularly amongst the Italians, the curial cardinals, who see him as being a very capable diplomat, you know, so if it's a short conclave, I think the expectation is probably going to be Parolin. But after that, it's really anyone's game.

CHURCH: And I know you've been asked this a thousand times as well, but how likely is it that the next Pope will continue the reforms of Pope Francis? Or do you expect that there will be a change in direction here, a different path followed perhaps?

ALLEN: You know, Francis, that's a very good question. Francis, you know, did so many different things. What it means to continue his legacy could mean very different things also, you know, and to deviate could also mean different things.

So I think most likely you're going to see a cardinal that's somewhere in the middle. They're going to continue some of the things that Francis did, but perhaps change others, you know. I don't think we're going to get somebody that carries on the full Francis agenda.

We're not going to get a photocopy of his papacy. I don't think Francis wanted it that way either. And he showed that in his cardinal appointments.

They're very diverse, you know, in every sense.

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And so most of the guys that he named, you know, walk someplace in the middle ground, you know, and I think that's what we're going to see is a candidate that will really carry forward, especially the social reforms of Pope Francis, perhaps, that will try to advance his internal reforms in the Roman period, you know, who might take things in a different direction, you know, be more conservative on some moral and doctrinal issues that made a lot of Catholics nervous. You know, I think a lot of the cardinals are looking for at least a

little more clarity, less ambiguity, they would say in that regard, you know, but who knows, you know, it could be whoever walks out on that balcony, I assume will be somebody that represents that middle ground.

CHURCH: All right, Elise Alen, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate it, great to talk with you.

ALLEN: Thank you, Rosemary.

CHURCH: Of course.

Well, Moscow is preparing to mark the most sacred day on the Russian calendar. Details on the celebration in the capital and the unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine, just ahead.

Plus the damage from new shelling along one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. We're live in New Delhi with the latest on the Kashmir violence.

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CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone.

We are following the latest developments from Moscow, where Chinese President Xi Jinping is meeting today with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They are expected to discuss the fighting in Ukraine, as Mr. Putin has called a three-day unilateral ceasefire to coincide with Victory Day celebrations across Russia.

Ukraine's air force says despite the truce, Russia launched guided bombs on the Sumy region in northern Ukraine. The air force says no drones or missiles were launched into other parts of Ukraine. There's been no word of damage.

So let's go live now to Moscow and CNN senior international correspondent Fred Pleitgen. Good to see you again, Fred.

So the world, of course, is focused on this upcoming meeting between Presidents Putin and Xi. So what's expected to come out of that?

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, very important. And of course, it comes as world leaders, Rosemary, are pouring here into Moscow for the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany and that big parade that is set to happen on Red Square tomorrow.

And of course, one of the things that Vladimir Putin did say is that Xi Jinping is probably the most important guest and the guest of honor, as he put it. Just a couple of minutes ago, it was the first official meeting between the two leaders in the Grand Kremlin Palace. We saw them standing together in front of two very large Russian and Chinese flags.

The latest that we have, and this is just from a couple of minutes ago I saw, is that the meeting has actually now begun. One of the things that stood out in that meeting is that both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping were making their opening statements and Vladimir Putin addressed Xi Jinping as my dear friend, just going to show how important the relations between Russia and China are for the Russians and for the Chinese, but also the personal relations between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping that, of course, right now are even more important to these both sides with U.S. President Donald Trump on the international stage and all that has been brought through that to international diplomacy.

There is an official part and the meeting that's going on now is certainly part of that. There are going to be two major agreements that are going to be signed, one on strategic stability and then one on strategic partnership between Russia and China.

They're also going to talk about energy questions and, of course, this is something that's extremely important for the Chinese to fuel that large economic production machine of their economy, especially about a gas pipeline that the Russians and the Chinese want to expand. But, of course, there's also about other things like, for instance, lumber and water that are very important to the Chinese.

At the same time, Russia has already become probably even more important for China than it was before. Now that it's in that trade standoff with the Trump administration, a lot of Chinese goods, a lot of Chinese cars, other goods are exported here to Russia.

If you look on the streets here in Moscow and in other Russian cities, you really have noticed over the past couple of years, and we've been observing this very closely, the influx of Chinese goods increased drastically as Russia, of course, has been under those very heavy sanctions by Western countries.

But one of the things that the Russians pointed out, and this was in an official statement as well, is they say the most important questions are going to be debated and they set out among those is the conflict in Ukraine, as they put it, and relations with the United States.

So clearly that is something that's very high on the agenda of both of these leaders. Right now, as we've mentioned, Xi Jinping, of course, in that standoff with the Trump administration, while at the same time Vladimir Putin is seeing those advances coming from the Trump administration, dangling the carrot of possible sanctions relief and better economic relations if an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is reached.

Now, of course, we've seen the Trump administration be a little bit more pessimistic over the past couple of days. J.D. Vance, the Vice President, saying that he believes Russia is asking for too much. But at the same time, that momentum that has been there since Donald Trump took office in the United States, certainly the Russians are still feeling that. There is still hope. But I think one thing that we're going to see today is that Xi Jinping

and Vladimir Putin are going to make clear that their friendship that they have, their personal friendship and the friendship between China and Russia is something that will transcend the Trump administration.

They have seen over the years that they've been in power administrations in the United States come and go. They've seen foreign policies of the United States come and go.

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But one thing that has always been a bedrock has been the good relations between these two leaders. And that's certainly something that both of them are saying that they will want to build on in this meeting. And then, of course, also when we see that parade happening tomorrow here in central Moscow, Rosemary.

CHURCH: All right. Our thanks to Fred Pleitgen joining us live from Moscow. I appreciate it.

Just ahead, new shelling and gunfire erupt in Kashmir following Indian military strikes on Pakistan. We'll have a live report from New Delhi.

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CHURCH: Welcome back to "CNN Newsroom." I'm Rosemary Church. Let's check today's top stories for you.

The second day of the conclave to elect a new pope is underway. 133 cardinals will cast up to four rounds of secret ballots today as they work to select Pope Francis' successor. White smoke from the chimney on top of the Sistine Chapel will indicate that a new pontiff has been chosen.

Ukraine is reporting attacks on the northern Sumy region just hours into a three-day ceasefire declared by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the unilateral truce to mark Victory Day, 80 years since the allies' defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

And the Indian Army has posted footage that appears to show its recent strikes on Pakistani targets. India says it went after the camps of terror groups accused of launching deadly attacks, including the massacre last month in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan says at least 31 people were killed in the strikes on Wednesday.

And we're also following reports of shelling along the line of control in Kashmir. Journalist Vedika Sud joins us now from the Indian capital, New Delhi. Good to see you, Vedika.

So what is the latest on this and of course, major escalating tensions between Pakistan and India?

VEDIKA SUD, JOURNALIST: And that continues. And I like what Kristie said sometime back to you. It's a holding pattern of sorts, that's how I would describe it.

We don't know what's going to happen next, Rosemary. But this is what we know that Pakistan and the Pakistan Prime Minister last night did address the nation. And he did say that they would avenge the military strikes that were conducted by India.

Now, in the last 36 hours, there has been tension peaking on both sides. But I want to start with the human cost of it all.

CNN has been speaking to villagers who have been living by the line of control. That's the de facto border between the two countries. And most of them have been evacuating their homes, places they've lived in for decades.

There are grandparents, parents, children. Children aren't going to school anymore. And one of them even said that they have been living in safe houses through the night and day, just to make sure that they're not the next target of the crossfire, the shelling that has been taking place.

And it's been extremely intense. In terms of numbers, in just one place, which is Pooch, on the Indian side of the border, about 13 people have been killed and more than 50 have been injured. We have visuals coming in from hospitals of young children, of adults, all of them suffering, and they're living in fear.

Like us, they don't know what's going to happen next.

Now, I want to give you an update on the Pakistani side as well. Like I said, the Pakistan Prime Minister last evening addressed the nation. I want to take you through what he said to his people last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHARIF (through translator): Last night, India made an aggression and made a terrible mistake, and now they have to pay the price.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SUD: Thirty-one dead is what Pakistan is saying after the military strikes by India. And the damage has been quite intense.

Before wrapping up, I want to take you through some fresh satellite images coming in from eastern Pakistan of a school that Pakistan claims was the victim or the target of the strike, one of the military's offensives by India, the missiles that were fired from India.

What you see to the right is what's left of it now, complete debris. It's in shambles, and that's just one of the images that we're bringing to you.

But like I said, the damage is on both sides. It started by the military offensive by India, the one that India launched about 36 hours back. But now the status quo is for everyone to guess, really, because we don't know what's going to happen next. We do know that Pakistan has said that they will retaliate, and we do

know that the Indian army and the Indian government has said that we're ready for any offensive coming our way from Pakistan. Back to you.

CHURCH: Our thanks to Vedika Sud joining us from New Delhi with that update.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to clear up confusion about how many hostages in Gaza are still believed to be alive. Israel's official line has been that the number stands at 24. However, U.S. President Donald Trump shocked families of hostages on Tuesday when he said that three more hostages had died and that 21 are still alive.

The families are now demanding that Israel's government reveal any new information that it has. Netanyahu posted this statement on Wednesday.

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BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): We know for certain that 21 are alive. That's not in dispute. There are three others where, unfortunately, it's uncertain whether they're alive.

So the definite number we're stating is 21. We're not giving up on anyone, not on the three and not on any of the others. We want to bring them all home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: After renaming the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, President Trump may have his sights set on a new body of water. Two officials tell CNN that the president is making plans for the U.S. to refer to the Persian Gulf as the Gulf of Arabia or the Arabian Gulf.

Arab nations have long pushed to rename the Gulf after their countries, but that move is likely to anger Iran. Once known as Persia, Iran is in favor of keeping the original name. President Trump was asked about the potential change on Wednesday.

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DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: They're going to ask me about that when I get there and I'll have to make a decision. I don't want to hurt anybody's feelings. I don't know if feelings are going to be hurt.

I have a case right over here. It's called Gulf of America. And I guess a lot of people get ideas from us.

But the Gulf of America was something I thought should have been named a long time ago. I'm going to be given a briefing on that, it was just done. Then I'll make a decision.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: President Trump's tariffs have thrown world markets into turmoil. Now the White House says it's planning to announce a major trade deal. The details just ahead.

And the ongoing trade war could put the U.S. economy at serious risk. A new warning from the head of the Federal Reserve and a look at how things might play out. That's still to come here on CNN.

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[03:45:00]

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CHURCH: U.S. President Donald Trump says he'll announce a trade deal today and a source tells CNN that deal will be with the U.K. The President said on social media that he will hold a news conference about, quote, "a major trade deal with representatives of a big and highly respected country."

For weeks, the White House said it's been discussing deals with more than a dozen countries. But none have been announced so far. On social media, the President claimed that this would be, quote, "the first of many."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is warning that Trump administration talks with key trade partners could materially change the U.S. economy. Powell's comments came as the Federal Reserve announced it's holding interest rates steady even as the economy starts to show the effects of Mr. Trump's trade war.

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JEROME POWELL, U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: It's not at all clear what the appropriate response for monetary policy is at this time. And we're, you know, and by the way, our policy is in a good place. So we think we can wait and move when it is clear what the right thing to do is really not at all clear what it is we should do.

If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they're likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment.

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CHURCH: President Trump has made quite clear in recent days that he does not agree with the Fed Chairman's handling of the economy.

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TRUMP: I have a Fed person who's not really doing a good job. You're not supposed to criticize the Fed.

You're supposed to let him do his own thing. But I know much more than he does about interest rates. Believe me. We should lower interest rates. That's the Fed.

I hope they lower interest rates.

He should lower interest rates.

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CHURCH: Powell's warning comes ahead of this weekend's high stakes meeting in Switzerland, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Rep Jameson Greer are set to meet with China's top economic official for what Besant is calling negotiations.

The economic triple punch of inflation, slow growth and high unemployment is known as stagflation. If it hits the U.S., some wonder whether the Federal Reserve is ready to handle what could be the first major episode of this economy killer since the 1970s.

Our Matt Egan has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: The Fed is warning that this trade war could do real damage to what is otherwise a solid economy. But here's the crazy thing. Not even the Fed knows exactly what kind of damage could be done, which means that not even the Fed knows how they can respond or whether or not they even can respond.

That's just the nature of trade wars. Now, one risk obviously is of higher unemployment. That's something the Fed said is increasingly a risk.

Normally, the Fed would respond to trouble in the jobs market by slashing interest rates, but they can't do that right now because the Fed says there's also the risk of higher inflation from tariffs and rate cuts would be the wrong solution to higher inflation. So that's why the Fed is kind of stuck in this holding pattern.

Now, the Fed also acknowledged that there's also the potential of having the worst of both worlds, higher unemployment and higher inflation. That would be a stagflationary nightmare for the Fed and for the American people, something that we have not seen in decades. Now, we're not there yet, but it's telling that the Fed chair even acknowledged that.

[03:50:00]

Now, I asked Fed Chair Powell what, if any, the Fed has to respond in the event that tariffs cause another supply chain nightmare that increases prices and also lifts inflation expectations. Take a listen to his answer, I think it was telling.

POWELL: I mean, we don't have, you know, the kind of tools that are good at dealing with supply chain problems. We don't have that at all. That's a job for the administration and for the private sector more than anything. Right now, we see inflation, you know, kind of moving sideways at a

fairly low level.

EGAN: Now, whenever there's trouble in the economy, we look to the Fed to try to come to the rescue. The Fed is signaling they can't come to the rescue, at least not yet, because they don't have a magic wand to fix broken supply chains, to conjure up trade deals, to lower tariffs.

So for now, like the rest of us, the Fed is a bystander as they wait to see how this trade war plays out and exactly what kind of damage gets done to the economy. Back to you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: A federal judge says deportation flights to Libya or Saudi Arabia would violate a prior court order. The Trump administration told CNN that it's planning to fly undocumented migrants to Libya, but the timing is unclear.

However, Judge Brian Murphy says doing so would violate his previous directive. Last month, he blocked migrant deportations to countries other than their own without first providing notice and an opportunity to contest it.

The Trump administration's immigration crackdown has faced widespread political and legal backlash. When asked about the Libya deportation flight on Wednesday, President Trump said he didn't know about it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Is the administration sending migrants to Libya?

TRUMP: I don't know. You'll have to ask Homeland Security, please.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Air traffic controllers at New York's Newark airport temporarily lost communication with pilots last week. Now we're learning it wasn't the first time it happened. That story just ahead.

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CHURCH: U.S. aviation officials say they are moving to fix the problems that led to last week's meltdown at New York's Newark airport. Sources say air traffic controllers lost radar and communication links with pilots for up to 90 seconds. But a CNN review of safety reports and air traffic audio shows incidents like that one had happened before.

Pete Muntean has the story.

[03:55:00]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Big developments on this story. The FAA is now vowing immediate fixes to Newark air traffic control as the head of United Airlines says the FAA needs to go back to restricting the number of flights into Newark.

The one big takeaway from our new reporting is that Newark's air traffic control meltdown that led to this staffing shortage has happened before. A Newark air traffic controller tells me it was by the grace of God that there wasn't a midair collision in that earlier case back on November 6th. He tells me controllers lost contact with a FedEx flight and could not tell the pilots to make the critical turn on the final approach into Newark, so the flight just kept on going and into the busy airspace near LaGuardia.

I want you to listen now to the audio from LiveATC.net that captures the confusion that pilots had when they could not communicate with Newark approach controllers.

UNITED FLIGHT 1560 PILOT: Yes, we have no answer on approach, so I don't -- it seems like he's not talking to anyone.

NEWARK TOWER: Yes, they said that they lost their frequencies.

FEDEX 743 PILOT: We're on a 150 heading now. What do you want us to do now?

LAGUARDIA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER: FedEx 743 heavy, turn left heading 360.

FEDEX 743 PILOT: Left 360, FedEx 743 heavy.

LAGUARDIA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER: FedEx 743 heavy, climb and maintain 5000.

FEDEX 743 PILOT: 5000, FedEx 743 heavy.

LAGUARDIA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER: I just had about five sectors in my ear all at once, they all have radio failure and they're turning every plane that's in the sky, so I have no idea.

NEWARK TOWER: Okay, got you loud and clear, thank you. We just lost all frequencies and communications here.

MUNTEAN: This incident is similar to last Monday's systems failure at Newark approach control. The controller that I spoke to was there when they lost radio and radar systems for about 90 seconds.

That means controllers could not talk with flights or see where they were. He called it the most dangerous situation you could have as an air traffic controller.

The FAA now says it will upgrade the telecom link in question. Copper wiring is being replaced with fiber optic cables. The FAA is also adding in a temporary backup system.

Also, the agency says trainee controllers will be on the job soon. That help can't come soon enough. We know that five workers in total took 45-day trauma leave after that systems blackout last Monday. (END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: We are keeping a close watch on events at the Vatican, where day two of the conclave to select a new pope is underway. The cardinals failed to agree on a successor to the late Pope Francis on the first day of voting, sending black smoke out the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.

Now, if we see white smoke, that means a new pope has been chosen. 133 cardinals are taking part in this process, sequestered away inside the Vatican. And Pope Francis passed away last month at the age of 88 after a lengthy illness.

And we'll bring you more coverage of the conclave underway on CNN. "Early Start" with Erin Burnett and Rahel Solomon begins right after a short break.

Thank you so much for your company. I'm Rosemary Church. Have a great day.

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