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Israel and Iran Launch New Rounds of Attacks; What Analysts Believe About the State of Iran's Arsenal; Trump Warming to U.S. Strike on Iran; Official: Iran Fires 10 Ballistic Missiles Toward Israel; U.S. Moving Assets to Give Trump 'Options'; How Strong is Iran's Ruler, Ayatollah Khamenei?; Woman Gives Birth to Triplets in Underground Israeli Hospital. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired June 18, 2025 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

ERICA HILL, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers watching here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Erica Hill in New York.

Israel and Iran unleashing fresh strikes against one another as U.S. president debates whether to get directly involved in the conflict that is now in its sixth day. An Iranian news outlet says Iran's air defenses have been repelling projectiles over Tehran. That unrelenting threat of aerial attacks has many people in the Iranian capital fleeing north. Israel, for its part, also issuing an evacuation order for part of Tehran on Tuesday and says it is carrying out a series of strikes on the Iranian capital.

Iran's supreme leader posting this blunt warning on X, quote, "The battle begins." A military official says Iran fired about 10 ballistic missiles toward Israel overnight. Iran says one guided missile hit an Israeli military intelligence center in Tel Aviv. Other Iranian strikes managed to breach the Iron Dome and cause some damage to residential buildings. Several fires broke out. No casualties, though, have been reported.

As for potential American involvement, senior Israeli official says they're waiting to see. Sources telling CNN, meantime, President Trump is actually warming to the idea of using U.S. military assets to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and souring on the prospect of a diplomatic solution.

CNN military analyst, retired Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton joins us now from Washington.

Colonel Leighton, always good to have you with us. When we hear that reporting, right, we've seen this evolution, right, and the reporting on the evolution of where Donald Trump is at in this moment, what would U.S. strikes look like?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: So, Erica, the most common theory about what the U.S. strike would look like is that it would be a strike against the Fordow nuclear facility, the nuclear enrichment plant at Fordow. And the reason that that's important is because that's a hardened and deeply buried target. So Fordow is about 295, almost 300 feet below ground. And what that means is there is no weapon except for the U.S. GBU 57 that can penetrate that, almost that far down and potentially take out that site.

Now, it's not guaranteed because that particular bomb is actually rated at a much lower depth of penetration. So in this particular case, it would probably require multiple passes or multiple weapons to be used on that particular facility. But that would be the first instance that where we could probably see U.S. involvement because the Israelis have already done what the U.S. would normally do, which is suppress enemy air defenses. And it would also mean that the Israelis would transfer the air supremacy that they currently have over Iran to the U.S. In essence, the U.S. would benefit from the work that the Israeli Air Force has already done.

HILL: If the U.S. were to get involved here, if the U.S. were to strike, who, what, even where, then is the most vulnerable in terms of a potential retaliatory attack?

LEIGHTON: So I would say the most vulnerable places are the U.S. Military facilities along the Persian Gulf. So you're talking about U.S. Military facilities and the basic idea there is that the facilities would be Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and, you know, potentially even some in Saudi Arabia. So there are, you know, those particular areas would be at risk. And that would then put, you know, us in direct confrontation, even more direct confrontation potentially with the Iranians.

Another area that would be at risk would be, of course, be the Persian Gulf itself. And that could be something where the Iranians come in and perhaps either mine or blockade the Straits of Hormuz, which would, of course, affect oil supply. And that would have a significant impact on the global economy.

HILL: Absolutely. And also, we haven't talked as much over the last couple of days about cyberattacks, but that is absolutely a reality, right? You have Iran talking about, alleging that Israel had launched cyberattacks.

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We also have, I believe, it's Radware, which is a U.S. based cyber security firm, estimating a 700 percent increase in Iranian cyberattacks against Israeli targets since the first strikes.

Is that something that could also be targeted toward the U.S.?

LEIGHTON: Absolutely. And in fact, Iranian cyber activity has been noted in some of our industrial control systems, particularly those systems that are used for water utilities and the electrical grid. Iranians have been active in those. And in essence, what they may be doing is looking at our networks and checking for potential vulnerabilities very similar to what the Chinese and the Russians have been doing against our networks.

So the Iranians are pretty professional in the cyber sphere. They launched a virus called the Shamoon virus against the Saudi Arabian Aramco oil company, one of the largest oil companies in the world, a few years ago. And it took down the entire administrative I.T. network of that company. That's the kind of thing that we could expect the Iranians to try, most likely against Israeli targets, as Radware noted. But also U.S. targets are a distinct possibility, and the Iranians are not shy to use that capability.

HILL: There are also a lot of questions, and we have some more reporting coming up on this in the show. So I don't want to take too much away from it, but there are questions about just how large Iran's arsenal is at this point. The fact that it may be clearly dwindling based on what we're seeing, how much do you think that is coming into play as the president weighs this decision and as he's getting this input from his advisers?

LEIGHTON: I think it plays a considerable part in, you know, whether or not the president decides to do something, you know, against Iranian targets in that, you know, as far as the size of the arsenal, the general estimates were that the Iranians had somewhere around 3,000 missiles that, you know, were capable of being used against various targets, but many of those could not reach Israel.

Those that can reach Israel, many of them have already been used in the attacks over the last five days, so there may be somewhere between 1,000 to 1500 missiles left. Of those, maybe three quarters at best could be used against Israel at this point in time. So, yes, the Iranians are basically subject to some of those limitations, and it could mean that there are some, you know, some holes in their ability to conduct offensive operations.

But they have several arsenals, you know, that they can choose from. One of them we mentioned earlier is cyber. The other one is the missiles. And then the third would be their proxies. They could reactivate those and go after several targets, although in the case of Hezbollah and Hamas, those proxies are pretty much on their back feet when it comes to the Israeli target.

HILL: Yes. Colonel Cedric Leighton, always appreciate it. Thank you.

LEIGHTON: You bet, Erica.

HILL: Well, U.S. intelligence officials believe Israel's attacks have, in fact, set Iran's nuclear program back, but only by a matter of months. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, says Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities have been severely impacted, but noted they have not been wiped out completely. Rafael Grossi did tell CNN one key site in particular has suffered some pretty significant damage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAFAEL GROSSI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: A facility I would say that the one that has sustained the worst I would say damage is one which is called Natanz. The above-ground facility was wiped out, was completely destroyed, and on top of that, the entire electrical power installation on which the whole compound operates was also taken out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Of course, there is the question, as we were just discussing with Colonel Leighton, of how long Iran can continue to launch missile strikes on Israel because of the size of its arsenal. And frankly, in many ways, that remains a mystery.

CNN's Nick Paton Walsh takes a closer look, though, at what analysts believe Iran may have.

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NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The loudest clock ticking is how long this intensity of conflict can go on. Iran, under greatest pressure, may reach a breaking point first. They're estimated to have had a stockpile of up to 3,000 missiles, between 2,000 and 1,000 of them able to reach Israel.

BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, SENIOR FELLOW, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: The best estimate we have is, at best, a back of the envelope calculation of anywhere between 1,000 to 2,000 medium range ballistic missiles.

PATON WALSH: But those stockpiles were challenged before this phase of the conflict. Iran fired about 120 at Israel on the 13th of April, 2024, and then another 200 on the 1st of October that year, and in the last five days have fired an estimated 380.

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Seven hundred used in a year and at very best 1300 left. Others less optimistic.

EYAL PINKO, BEGIN SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Take into consideration that they fired around 400, 500 in the last four days, and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what they had, I believe they stayed now with 800, 700 more.

PATON WALSH: But Israel has claimed success in hitting the missiles launchers, releasing this graphic of targets including at least a third, they say, of Iran's surface-to-surface launchers.

PINKO: Israel is trying now not only to hit or to defend the missiles in the air, to intercept them, but also to destroy the vehicles before launching because this is the -- this is the weakest part of the chain.

PATON WALSH: Israel has claimed Iran could make 300 ballistic missiles a month like this Fatah One apparently used in the recent attacks. But on October the 26th, three waves of retaliatory strikes by Israel hit Iran's air defense and missile production, in which the U.K. Defense chief said only 100 bombs took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense system. It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year, he said.

TALEBLU: I don't even think they want to go below four digits, but it's certainly a bind that the regime finds themselves in. You know, for the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own, and having to expend these ballistic missiles during a time of war rather than a time of crisis precisely puts it in this bind.

PATON WALSH: The mystery number of how many missiles Iran has left dictating its actions, and the outcome of this defining conflict.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Abbas Milani is the director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

It's good to have you with us tonight. Can you talk to us about how this potential U.S. involvement in your view would actually change the calculus for Iran?

ABBAS MILANI, HAMID AND CHRISTINA MOGHADAM DIRECTOR OF IRANIAN STUDIES, STANFORD UNIVERSITY: I think it would change it radically. I think any chance that they think they might draw out this fight to something that they can at least declare a draw will end. I think they know that this will be a very important change in the balance of forces. And if they decide to employ some of these missiles that they have in Iran's southern bases to attack U.S. bases or to attack shipping lanes, I think you're talking about a quantitatively different kind of a war.

HILL: Quantitatively different. Do you believe it could spread within the region?

MILANI: Well, I think if Iran is pushed to that extent, I think it is their last gambit. It is the gambit that they need to survive. I think they might take that. I hope they don't, because I think it will, first of all, cost many, many, many, many innocent Iranians' lives. I think people in Iran don't -- haven't wanted this war. This is a war that Mr. Khamenei sanctioned with his intransigence, his rhetoric forced on the Iranian society.

But they are paying the price. And if the war does expand, if Iran does attack U.S. bases, you can certainly expect Mr. Trump to return the favor forcefully, and the price will be paid by the innocent Iranians.

HILL: And talking about the Iranian people, right, there has been, as we know, there is no shortage of opposition, frankly, to the current regime. Do you think, though, what is happening in this moment, does it strengthen that dissent, or could it actually have the opposite effect because of what the Iranian people are living through in this moment? MILANI: Well, I think it has strengthened aspects of the dissent. Some

people from inside Iran, some very prominent people from inside Iran have issued the statements. Mr. Panahi, for example. I guess, Mr. Mohammadi Abadi, a group of other prominent civil rights activists, have issued a statement saying no to war, no to enrichment, and no to the Iranian regime.

It is a remarkable declaration that basically says, we don't want this regime, and this regime has gotten us into this. We don't want the war. They very much criticize what they call an unprovoked attack by Israel. They want that to end, but they want the Iranian regime to end as well.

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And they say very clearly, categorically, they also want enrichment to end. So you are hearing voices from inside Iran and some voices from outside Iran who are criticizing Israel, but also criticizing the Iranian regime. On the whole, I think the Iranian regime is politically now at the weakest point it has been.

HILL: Given that, you know, as US says, the weakest point that it has been, there's so much talk, especially today, right, so much talk about regime change, very little talk, though, about what the day- after looks like. Do you see what that day after would look like if there were in fact a regime change? Where is the -- where is the broadest support within Iran?

MILANI: I think the broadest support for the day-after is for a democratic secular Iran. Almost anything exactly the opposite of what this regime has been. This is an ideological regime given to war. People want a peaceful regime given to democracy and based on the vote of the people. But what the people want might not be exactly what they get.

There are reports today, unconfirmed reports, only one station has declared that Mr. Khamenei has given up some of his powers to the IRGC Command Committee. If that is indeed the case, then we are seeing, I think, a very serious first step towards very important changes within the Iranian regime. And if that happens, then the Iranian, I think, opposition will have a much more active role in deciding the future.

Most people are afraid that an IRGC junta might be the alternative that takes over, but I don't think that can last. The Iranian society has so many remarkable structural problems that only a peaceful, democratic, inclusive alternative can begin to solve it.

HILL: Abbas Milani, really appreciate your insight. Thank you.

MILANI: Thank you.

HILL: Well, leaders around the world are weighing in on the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. Turkey's president calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the, quote, "greatest threat" to security in the Middle East. Mr. Erdogan also warning the conflict could spread. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): Israel which attacks Iran with the unlimited support of the West, destroys Gaza and bullies every country in the region is actually unaware of what it is doing. Perhaps it will realize its mistake in the future but we fear that by then it will be too late. It should not be forgotten that no country in this ancient geography is limited to its own borders and administration.

Israel is risking its own existence and the future of its society step by step with every oppression it commits, every blood it sheds, every crime against humanity it commits.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: French President Emmanuel Macron meantime telling reporters at the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday. He believes the, quote, "biggest error today is to seek a regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos." And in his first comments on the Israel-Iran conflict, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said his country is deeply concerned, adding, "Military conflict is not a way to solve problems and the escalation of regional tensions is not in the common interests of the international community."

Well, sources say President Trump is warming to the idea of a U.S. strike on Iran. We have more on that, as well as his direct warning to Iran's supreme leader just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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HILL: The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem will be closed for the next three days amid the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. All employees and their families have been directed to shelter in place. A statement from the embassy's consular services in Tel Aviv will also be closed until Friday. So far, though, there has not been an announcement about whether the embassy will help private U.S. citizens leave Israel, given the country's largest international airport and, of course, its seaports remain closed.

President Trump, meantime, is demanding Iran's unconditional surrender. In a post on social media and also posting a warning for the country's supreme leader, calling him an easy target but saying the U.S. won't take him out, at least for now.

CNN's senior White House correspondent Kristen Holmes has more.

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KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The White House confirming President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on the phone on Tuesday. However, they would not give any indication of what the two leaders spoke about or when that call was.

The timing of that call is particularly important, particularly given the fact that Donald Trump sat down with his National Security Council, with his heads of Cabinets, as well as top advisers for an hour in the situation room. And what we were trying to glean from the White House, from sources familiar, was when the call with Netanyahu took place, was it before or after? But they are not offering any information here as we continue to talk to these White House officials who say everything is just too sensitive.

Now, one of the things that we have been reporting is Donald Trump's shift away from this diplomatic avenue that he originally wanted to take. Donald Trump had been incredibly wary of getting the United States more involved in what was going on between Israel and Iran. But the president in recent days has started to shift towards this understanding, towards this posture that the United States might need to be involved.

Now, one of the things that I've been told by administration officials that they are watching for is if Iran strikes any U.S. assets, any military bases, anything that has -- any place that houses American citizens.

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That would lead to an almost immediate retaliation. What we're not quite sure of is, is the United States or has President Trump come to a place where he will agree to have the United States strike first, to be actually more participatory in this fight between Israel and Iran? As we've said, there are so many factions within the Republican Party and within Donald Trump's closest advisers, some urging him America First policy, do not get involved.

Others saying Israel can handle themselves, and others still saying that it is the United States' duty to get involved and to protect Israel. One of the things I am told is a big consideration for the president and for the White House is how long this would actually take to be done. Is this -- if the United States did enter into this conflict, is this something that would be incredibly drawn out, or could be concluded in a matter of days?

Donald Trump, the president, he is insistent that anything that happens, whether he's involved or not involved, is a short runway. They do not want to be tangled up into something in the Middle East for years to come. One of the things, of course, he promised on the campaign trail was there would be no wars when he became president.

Kristen Holmes, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Joining me now, Shahar Azani, the former spokesperson for the consulate general of Israel in New York.

Good to have you with us at this hour. Can you give us a sense of what more you're learning in terms of where things stand at this hour? SHAHAR AZANI, FORMER SPOKESPERSON, CONSULATE GENERAL OF ISRAEL IN NEW

YORK: Well, Erica, it's a pleasure to join you and your viewers. At this moment Iran continues with its ballistic missile attack against Israeli civilian centers all across. I just was on the phone with my family in Israel., running to the shelter every couple of hours. And this is completely synonymous with the Islamic Republics regime's behavior and terror network. Not just now during this war but in the course of the last few decades, through its proxies and directly against innocent Israeli civilians and innocent civilians all across the world.

And Israel is adamant to stand strong against the Islamic Republic once and for all, and learn the lesson of October 7th, Erica, because on October 7th, we looked the other way when Hamas made a similar threats of death to Israel. And what we received was a massacre of thousands of innocent Israelis on our doorstep because we simply did not believe our enemies when they told us what they wanted to do. The Islamic Republic's regime has been chanting since 1979 death to Israel, death to America, and such a regime that is running in the direction of a nuclear bomb, arming itself with ballistic missiles is not doing it to pave more highways for Persians in Iran.

HILL: We know one of the goals, of course, as we've heard from Prime Minister Netanyahu, is to get rid of those nuclear capabilities. President Trump would like to see the same thing. The reporting is basically Israel is waiting to see what Donald Trump decides. Israel has intimated that it could do this on its own. It would much rather do it with these 30,000 pound bunker busting bombs and, of course, the bombers to carry them that the U.S. has.

If, though, President Trump decides not to engage at this point, do you believe Israel can attain that goal on its own?

AZANI: Absolutely, Erica. So as you've seen in the last few days, Israel has achieved significant progress when it comes to its attack on Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile operation. We have targeted only military establishments and military personnel, as opposed to what Iran has been doing, firing indiscriminately ballistic missiles with heavy loads into Israeli civilian population centers in an attempt to kill as many as possible.

And the only difference here is that Israel will take longer due to the reason you just mentioned for lacking that bunker buster bomb, but we will definitely achieve this goal, if anything, for the reason that we simply have no other choice.

HILL: The prime minister also mentioned there has been a lot of talk, certainly it's escalated in the last 24 hours when it comes to regime change. There has been less discussion about what things would look like the day after. Is there enough planning for the day after? What is your sense of what that would look like?

AZANI: Well, at the end of the day, regime change is a goal that has to come from within Iran, by the Persian people, for the Persian people. Right now, Israel is focused on targeting the nuclear program and the ballistic missiles. Of course, we hope that this regime will pass from the world so that the entire Middle East and the wider world can suddenly breathe and sigh in relief once this regime has gone in the natural path of ways and allowed some peace and stability in the region.

But it would be highly optimistic to think that it would be in the power of either Israel or the U.S., or any outside element, to dictate to the ordinary Iranians what kind of regime they will have. This is up to the Persian people, and we do hope that they will rise and take advantage of this opportunity, because we've seen this regime going to war with its own people.

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Let me mention 2022. Mahsa Amini, who was executed by the regime simply for not covering her head. This has to stop for their sake.

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Shahar Azani. Appreciate you joining us. Thank you.

AZANI: Thank you for having me.

HILL: Still ahead here this hour, President Trump considering what move, if any, to make in the Middle East as this conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies. How the U.S. is preparing after the break.

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HILL: Welcome back to CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Erica Hill. Let's take a look at today's top stories.

Israel has issued an evacuation order for part of the Iranian capital one day after the U.S. president urged everyone in Tehran to leave immediately.

A number of Iranians are actually fleeing North following days of back-and-forth missile attacks between the two countries.

Meantime, Iran's supreme leader posting on X, "The battle begins." Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised a strong response to what he called the "terrorist Zionist regime in Israel."

Earlier, the U.S. president called the supreme leader an easy target but said the U.S. would not take him out, at least not yet.

Sources tell CNN President Trump is now warming to the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran. He spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, although the White House did not release details of that call or a full readout.

On social media, Trump demanded Iran's uncondoosh [SIC] -- unconditional surrender.

Sources tell CNN the U.S. military is preparing for the possibility that President Trump does decide to offer assistance to Israel in the conflict with Iran. U.S. assets are being moved around the Middle East right now to give him, quote, "options."

The president on Tuesday posting to Truth Social, quote, "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran," echoing a nearly identical thought from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just a day earlier.

President Trump also reiterating his desire to stop Iran's nuclear program.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR/CORRESPONDENT: Is there any guarantee that, if the U.S. did get involved militarily, that a U.S. bomb could destroy Iran's nuclear program and facilities?

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) everything (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in life (ph). You know that. Look at you, right? There's no guarantee.

But you're saying a guarantee on what?

COLLINS: You think? If the U.S. got involved militarily, it would actually wipe out Iran's nuclear program? Or where's your assessment of that?

TRUMP: I hope their program is going to be wiped out long before that, but they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: A source says Central Command has even presented President Trump the option of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Natasha Bertrand has more details on those U.S. assets in the Middle East, and how they could play a part in the conflict.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Dozens of U.S. Air Force tankers have been moved into the Middle East in recent days --

BERTRAND (voice-over): -- as a way, we're told, for the president to have military options, should he decide to get more involved in the war between Iran and Israel.

Essentially, what these refueling tankers would allow the president to do, if he wanted to, is to do a range of military options, ranging from helping the Israeli fighter aircraft refuel --

BERTRAND: -- so that they can continue the pace of their airstrikes over Iran, to another option that would involve greater U.S. military involvement, which would be joint U.S.-Israeli strikes over Iran and against these nuclear facilities in Iran.

Essentially, if the U.S. wanted to deploy, for example, a B-2 bomber --

BERTRAND (voice-over): -- which is the only aircraft that it has that would carry these massive bunker-busting bombs that would allow the U.S. to penetrate deep underground of the Fordow nuclear facility, then the B-2 bomber would be able --

BERTRAND: -- to be refueled by these tankers that are currently in the region and positioned to do so.

And so, this essentially gives the president options, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

Now, the U.S. military has also been repositioning a number of other assets into the Middle East --

BERTRAND (voice-over): -- including the Nimitz aircraft carrier, which is currently en route to the region. It is going to join another aircraft carrier that is already there, the U.S.S. Carl Vinson. And it's unclear just how long they are going to overlap.

But they do both bring a tremendous amount of firepower and hardware --

BERTRAND: -- to the region at a moment when, of course, the president is reportedly contemplating greater involvement in this military confrontation.

These aircraft carriers can be used to launch fighter jets, to carry out airstrikes, and of course, to intercept incoming missiles and drones from Iran to Israel.

And so, U.S. Central Command right now working to give the president a large number of options for just what he can do militarily, if he decides to get more involved in this conflict.

Natasha Bertrand, CNN, at the Pentagon.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Joining me now is Benjamin Radd, a political scientist and senior fellow at the Burkle Center for International Relations at UCLA.

It's good to have you here with us.

When we look at what the potential options are, the fallout, it's remarkable what we've seen in terms of the -- the movement, I guess I would say, of President Trump.

As recently as yesterday when he was at the G-7 in Canada -- or on Monday, I should point out, because now we're well into the early hours of Wednesday here in New York, President Trump was saying, look, I think -- I think Iran is basically at the negotiating table. We can make this happen. I want to make this happen.

Fast forward just a few hours, and he's saying, Look, the time to make a deal is up. What does that tell you? Right? As the rest of the world is trying to figure out where President Trump's mind is, how they're weighing this.

BENJAMIN RADD, POLITICAL SCIENTIST AND SENIOR FELLOW, BURKLE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UCLA: Yes. I think it -- definitely, where his sentiments lie still remains a mystery as to what final decision he'll make.

I think what the president is expressing is a frustration from his perspective, is that the offer the United States put on the table several weeks ago, the one that Iran rejected, was one that would have Iran forego all of its nuclear enrichment rights, even rights that it has under the nonproliferation treaty, in return for a consortium that would provide Iran with the fuel it needs for domestic energy purposes.

And Iran's rejection of that, and its -- and its insistence that it have this right for civilian energy enrichment is, I think, what made for President Trump to be essentially the red line that he wasn't willing to -- to cross or allow Iran to hold onto and pushed him over the edge towards basically taking more decisive action and supporting Israel directly, if not indirectly.

HILL: There are legitimate concerns about what U.S. involvement could lead to, as I have heard a number of times over the last couple of days from our military analysts. Wars are very easy to start. They're tough to end.

And so, as the calculations are being made as to if and when and what it looks like in terms of U.S. involvement, how much will that need to be a part of the discussion and perhaps laid out for Israel that, if U.S. -- if the U.S. does decide to go in to perhaps help attack, that these are the boundaries to it, these are the parameters?

RADD: It's -- it's not only the parameters of what the United States is willing to do. I think there's a lot of sensitivity, and rightfully so, and concern about what would happen after the fact.

So again, it's easy to plan what happens if there is an attack? What happens if there is massive regime turnover or collapse altogether? What role would the United States have to play? What role would Israel have to play? Would the international community have a role in this? What is the -- you know, the day after going to look like?

And what we've seen are folks pointing -- pointing repeatedly to lessons learned from the Iraq experience in 2003. And also, you know, there's a history of foreign countries meddling in Iranian domestic affairs and regime change or leadership change, going all the way back to the '50s.

So, there is rightful concern, really, over what the next stages would be, because the assumption is that if the U.S. does get involved, it will get involved to win. And by win, I mean permanently or substantially cripple Iran's nuclear enrichment program and possibly lead to a regime turnover. HILL: Right. And part of that discussion, you know, has been -- and

rightfully so -- it should be up to the Iranians what that looks like the next day.

But the reality is that's one part of the puzzle only. We also have, as all of this is playing out, to your point, we're also coming off, of course, President Trump's first major overseas trip was to the region. He made that very important speech in Saudi Arabia, talking about the fact that I'm paraphrasing here.

But essentially the U.S. was getting out of the business of nation building, right? And of helping to usher in a change, which would be exactly what could potentially be happening in Iran.

RADD: Yes. And the question is, is that with U.S. support for supporting Israel in this operation, would it -- would it be consistent with Trump's message that the U.S. is not engaged in nation building?

It might make the argument that if anything, the pathway to a prosperous, safe, secure Middle East is really blocked by Iran and its nefarious actions, from the U.S. perspective: its support for various proxy or terrorist groups and the destabilizing effect that Iran has on the region.

So, U.S. involvement to put an end to, let's say, the behaviors of this regime is consistent with the president's view that the United States should not be involved in nation building, but it should assist with removing obstacles towards a pathway for a prosperous and secure Middle East, and that this is one step in that direction.

HILL: Where else are you looking at this moment in the region? What else are you monitoring to give you a sense of -- of where support lies and what things could look like?

RADD: Well, the big question is also, you know, beyond just what's happening domestically. We've seen other Arab states -- excuse me, other states in the region, Arab states in particular. They've been vocal in condemning Israel's operation.

But yet, we haven't seen any big diplomatic pushes or actions beyond that.

What is the tolerance for conflict in the Middle East? What is the tolerance for U.S. involvement that might trigger an Iranian response at U.S. bases in positions in neighboring countries? Iraq in particular, Qatar, UAE, other places where the U.S. has military installations.

[00:45:05]

Would there be a tolerance for that if -- if the United States got involved directly and soldiers in those countries and also the citizens of those countries themselves were put at risk?

We've really yet to hear what that is. And I think for now, all remains quiet until President Trump reaches his decision.

HILL: Yes, much of it waits and weighs on that decision.

Benjamin Radd, I appreciate you joining us tonight. Thank you.

RADD: Thank you.

HILL: Iran's supreme leader is vowing to show Israel no mercy in response to its attacks. Some analysts, though, say that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has never been more vulnerable than he is in this moment. A closer look at why, after this quick break.

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HILL: Oil prices are up once again as the world watches to see whether the conflict between Israel and Iran will disrupt supplies.

The price of crude has been fluctuating this week, with traders keeping a close eye on the situation. There are concerns Iran may retaliate by cutting off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, or by targeting energy infrastructure in the region.

Meantime, Israel says it does not expect fuel shortages after Iran struck an oil refinery in Haifa. Its energy ministry says preparations had been made to secure enough fuel ahead of that strike on Monday.

As the conflict has quickly intensified, much of the focus is also shifting to the fate of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has warned that Iran will show no mercy in this battle.

Whether he can follow through on that promise, however, and whether the Iranian people stand with him, those are open questions, as CNN's Melissa Bell reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MELISSA BELL, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For over 35 years, Iran's supreme leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, has ruled with an iron grip, delivering a blunt message to the West.

AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, SUPREME LEADER OF IRAN (through translator): We in no way are willing to start an all-out war with the United States. But, if it so happens, we will inevitably put up a very strong defense.

BELL (voice-over): Five days into an all-out conflict with Israel, the question now is how firm Ayatollah Khamenei's grip remains.

Regional proxies like Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime are on the sidelines, leaving Iran to fight back alone.

KARIM SADJADPOUR, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: It's led by an 85-year-old supreme leader who doesn't really have the physical or cognitive acumen to be fighting this very high- tech war. So, you know, this is, as other guests have said, probably the most vulnerable the Iranian regime has -- has been in many, many years.

BELL (voice-over): It was the 1989 death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of Iran's Islamic Revolution, that brought Khamenei to power.

Since then, he's brutally suppressed internal dissent. First, in 2009, when the Green Movement protested what it claimed were rigged election results.

(CHANTING)

KHAMENEI (through translator): If they don't stop this, then the consequences and the writing everything, they will be held accountable for all this.

BELL (voice-over): Then again, in 2022, the death in police custody of a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, sparked months of nationwide protests, met once again with violent repression.

Israeli attacks have now eliminated several key regime figures, targeting not only nuclear facilities but also Iran's state broadcaster. Israel's prime minister has even addressed what he believes would happen if Khamenei himself were targeted.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: It's not going to escalate the conflict. It's going to end the conflict.

BELL (voice-over): For now, an American opposition appears to be holding back Israel's plan to strike Khamenei directly. But the supreme leader has vowed to fight on.

KHAMENEI (through translator): We must give a strong response. God willing, we will respond with strength, and we will show them no mercy.

BELL (voice-over): The question now: whether Iranians themselves will stand with the leader they've so often opposed.

Melissa Bell, CNN, Paris.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: As missile strikes loom overhead in Northern Israel, the challenging birth of three babies was taking place in an underground hospital. CNN's Nick Blatt has that story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK BLATT, CNN VIDEO EDITOR/PRODUCER (voice-over): A woman gave birth to triplets Monday in Israel's Rambam Hospital, one of several in the country that have moved some operations underground as Iranian strikes hit the city of Haifa this week, according to Reuters.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The challenging time now is just to see triplets during the transition here and during time of war, which is kind of more challenging to manage this case.

BLATT (voice-over): Iranian missiles targeted Haifa, Israel's third largest city and where Rambam Hospital is located.

Representatives of the hospital said they were treating roughly 600 patients around the time the triplets were born.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She had three little girls, OK? She had premature little girls. She's happy. This is her first babies. And she's well this -- this morning. She was well.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Thanks for joining me this hour on CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Erica Hill. I'll be back at the top of the hour with more news. Stay with us.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

HILL: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us in the United States and all around the world. I'm Erica Hill in New York.