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Israel And Iran Launch New Rounds Of Attacks; IDF Says It Struck Key Military Targets In Tehran Area; Iran Warns Residents To Stop Using WhatsApp, Telegram; State Department Announces Middle East Task Force To Help Americans In The Region; Trump Demands Iran's "Unconditional Surrender"; World Leaders Weigh In On The Israel-Iran Conflict; What Analysts Believe About The State Of Iran's Arsenal; The Fate Of Iran's Supreme Leader. Aired 1-2a ET

Aired June 18, 2025 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[01:00:00]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

ERICA HILL, CNN HOST: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us in the United States and all around the world. Erica Hill in New York.

Israel and Iran unleashing fresh strikes against one another as the U.S. President debates whether to get directly involved in this conflict, which is now in its sixth day.

An Iranian news outlet says Iran's air defenses have been repelling projectiles over Tehran. The unrelenting threat of aerial attacks has many people in the Iranian capital fleeing north.

Israel, for its part, also issued an evacuation order for part of Tehran on Tuesday and says it is carrying out a series of strikes on the Iranian capital. Iran's supreme leader posting this blunt warning on X. The battle begins. A military official says Iran fired about 10 ballistic missiles toward Israel overnight.

Iran says one guided missile hit an Israeli military intelligence center in Tel Aviv. Other Iranian strikes managed to breach the Iron Dome and did cause some damage to residential buildings. A number of fires broke out. No casualties though have been reported.

As for potential American involvement, that is the big question at this hour. One senior Israeli official says they're just waiting to see.

Meantime, sources telling CNN President Trump is warming to the idea of using U.S. military assets to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and souring on the prospect of a diplomatic solution.

Let's get straight to CNN's Paula Hancocks who's following all the developments for us at this hour from Abu Dhabi. Paula, bring us up to speed if you would.

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Erica, we're having some updates from the Israeli military as to exactly what they have been targeting overnight. As you mentioned there was an evacuation order for District 18. This is one of the neighborhoods in Tehran itself.

The military saying that they were going to be targeting military targets in that area and people should leave so as not to be in any danger. Now we are still continuing to see people leaving Tehran, trying to get to more rural, more isolated.

Overnight, we understand from the Israeli military that they carried out using 50 fighter jets, they say specific intelligence based strikes. This is how they've termed it. Now what they were targeting is the centrifuge production facilities. These are the centrifuges which are needed for creating nuclear power, according to Iran.

But Israel says they believe that is being used for a nuclear weapon and also missile production sites. Now this has been something that Israel has focused on really since day one of this conflict, trying to lessen the ability of Iran to retaliate against their strikes, to be able to use missiles against Israel.

Now we've certainly seen the number of missiles being used is less. We saw Monday morning, for example, in the early hours, there were hundreds of missiles and drones that were used. There was loss of life in Israel. And yet we're seeing those numbers far smaller now of the barrages of missiles that Iran is able to target against Israel.

Now, from the Israeli point of view, the military says that is because they are destroying the missile capabilities of Iran. It is too early really to see if that is in fact the case. We're still hearing from Iran that these missile strikes will continue.

In fact, we have heard from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, himself the Supreme Leader, saying in a statement in the early hours of today on X, quote, the battle begins, also saying we must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy.

So certainly from the official line in Tehran, there is still a fight to be had. They are saying that they are still going to continue to target Israeli territory. And certainly we have been seeing over recent hours that there have been more air raid sirens across Israel, people heading to the shelters to protect themselves from incoming missiles. Erica.

HILL: We're also starting to hear a little bit more reaction. We heard some, of course, at the G7, President Macron speaking out. We heard a little bit from President Xi Jinping, but also President Erdogan of Turkey. As more nations are starting to weigh in as they're watching this play out, how much response is there in the region to what we're seeing?

HANCOCKS: The response from the region was fairly swift after this started on Friday and there is condemnation as to what Israel is doing in Iran. There was swift condemnation. Saudi Arabia one of the very first to condemn what they had done. So there's a combination of condemnation, but also of concern that this could involve more countries in the region. We've already seen that Jordan has been dragged into this. [01:05:00]

We saw that in recent hours as well. Once again, these missiles coming from Iran traveled through Jordanian airspace. So the military says that they were forced to shoot some of those missiles down or at least try to intercept some of them because they were concerned that they could impact people on the ground in Jordan.

Jordan has said it doesn't want its airspace or its territory to be used as a battleground and but simply for its geographical location, missiles are going through its airspace on their way to Israeli territory.

So there are great concerns in the region that this could become a greater conflict, that countries will find themselves being dragged into this. But there is really across the board condemnation for what Israel has done, saying that it shouldn't be violating the sovereignty of Iran in this way.

Even from those countries where there is no love lost when it comes to Iran. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for example, are not naturally supporters of Iran. And yet when it comes to this, they have condemned Israel's actions. Erica.

HILL: Paula Hancocks in Dubai, in Abu Dhabi. Pardon me, Paula. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Let's take you now to Tel Aviv. Miri Eisin is a retired colonel in the Israeli Defense Forces, as well as a senior fellow at the International Institute for Counterterrorism. Miri, it's good to have you with us at this hour.

When we look at how all of this is playing out, there is a lot of talk about what could come next, as there has been more talk in the last 24 hours or so about potential regime change. Do you see that is an active conversation, the planning for the after?

MIRI EISIN, SENIOR FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF COUNTERTERRORISM: I'm not yet sure what the after is because at the moment we're still in it. But I will say that when we talk about that after, it's about really degrading the capabilities that the Islamic regime of Iran have not just used directly against us.

I want to remind everybody the same type of missiles they handed over to the Houthis who have been firing them at us from October of 2023. These different drone and missile capabilities Hezbollah held and we degraded Hezbollah's capabilities last year. That's part of the opening to be able to go there.

So I think what we're looking at is mainly at the military result, at the capability to have this air superiority over the Islamic regime of Iran. Not anything against the Persian people, but against both the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and everything that they have done.

When we talk about the regime change, that's not the conversation here in the sense that for all of us, we would like to not see this regime, but we Understand that's not up to us. That's up to the people in Iran. And what I'd like to see is Khamenei, who is tweeting before Paula was quoting the tweets that I was looking at before myself, who this still calls for the Zionist entity to disappear. I'd love to see that, not be around. But I don't see us being the ones who change the regime.

HILL: When comes to the military action. Right. And this question, which is now hanging in the air of will President Trump decide to engage or not? What is that conversation in this moment in Israel? How are Israelis reacting to the possibility of the US Joining this effort with Israel?

EISIN: Israel has never wanted to stand alone against the Islamic regime. We're the only ones who are constantly threatened directly by the regime, by all of the forces that were used against us. It was like the rallying point. If you do it against Israel, that's OK. That's a horrible thing.

So I think right now, the idea that the United States, with the United States force, would step in to us, that's something that is a given. I've also heard the German consular say things that Israel is the one that has been facing alone this Islamic regime.

And I understand in that sense that they don't want to come out in their strong stance. President Trump does so in a different way. But at the end, every single one of these countries around us, the missiles that reach us can reach Berlin, can reach London. For that matter, they could reach Beijing or anywhere else in Asia. And these are things that threaten worldwide. So we would love to see the additional support.

But I want to be clear. We have in Israel right now that air superiority that we created over the Islamic regime. We're targeting the military targets. We're telling people to leave in Tehran. Nobody wants to see civilian lives being killed in that sense. And as such, we're acting on our own. But I'd love to see the U.S. join in acting.

HILL: We would love to see the U.S. if the U.S. decides not to join in, what does that change, if anything?

EISIN: In an odd way, I don't think it changes what we're doing now. I think that what we have enacted in this campaign that we started from early Friday is a systematic, clear capability to degrade Iranian regime.

[01:10:02]

And I say regime, it's the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. It's the different components of the nuclear aspect of the missiles, the drones, all of those different components that they have also been supplying to all of their proxies. So that would go on. I do think that there's an end to that as well. If we do it with American capabilities, I think it shortens the process. If we do it without, it means that it takes longer.

And I'll remind you, we're sitting here, no siren has gone off right now. As I always say before I go on the air, if there's a siren, I go into the safe room. What the Islamic regime is firing at us that slow trickle, which was not the huge amount, are half ton ballistic missiles that are hitting inside the greater area, all over the place.

But we need our resilience. We have to be the ones who can withstand that in that sense. And that will also be part of the equation. How long can we be like this? Nobody's at work, nobody's at school. We're a country in lockdown. And these are also challenges.

HILL: Miri Eisin, really appreciate your perspective. Thank you.

EISIN: Thank you, Erica.

HILL: Iranian officials are urging people to stop using location based apps including WhatsApp and Telegram, claiming Israel is using them to, quote, identify and target individuals to assassinate. Now, WhatsApp is pushing back here, saying it does not track its user's precise location, noting that all messages are encrypted.

A company spokesperson even warning that Iran may in fact be using, quote, false reports to block its services at a time when people need them the most. All of this, of course, happening as Iranian officials are also accusing Israel of launching a, quote, widespread cyber war against its digital infrastructure.

Joining me now to discuss, retired Major General Mark MacCarley. He's an attorney and consultant with McCarley and Rosen and joins me from Glendale, California. It's good to have you with us at this hour.

It's so interesting to me, this WhatsApp development that we saw today, because, I mean, that's how most people around the world communicate. And so if you have this warning of not to use it and then the pushback from the company, what does that tell you when we're seeing these differing comments, for a technology that is crucial for people around the globe, but especially in Iran, as they not only look to learn what's happening, but also to check on their loved ones.

MAJ. GEN. MARK MACCARLEY (RET.), ATTORNEY AND CONSULTANT, MACCARLEY AND ROSEN: WhatsApp is the tool of choice for so many of us as we transit around the world and communicate both at home and in business activities. But we just have to leap back for a couple of months to Lebanon.

And if you recall, the Israelis staged what could best be described as one of the most interesting, if not spectacular coups in a sense, that the cell phones that were held and carried by senior members of Hezbollah suddenly exploded.

A good number of Hezbollah operatives were severely injured. Some passed away. And that engendered a tremendous amount of fear. So if there is a rumor that is now circulating in Iran that and certainly perpetrated by the Iranian government, then that engenders once again fear amongst those who are living there that they can't use this particular tool.

And that just makes the events that are transpiring in Iran even more difficult for those people on the ground whose interest is just staying alive.

HILL: Yes, absolutely. When we look at where things stand and as President Trump is weighing this calculation, take us inside what some of those conversations may be like. Right. As the cases both for and against strikes are being laid out, what falls in each one of those columns?

MACCARLEY: Oh, my gosh. You're asking me to peer into the minds of our senior leadership here in the United States.

HILL: Well, if you were doing the advising, we'll do it that way.

MACCARLEY: Yes. Right. I'll take a shot at it from certainly the con standpoint that Tucker Carlson and others, Marjorie Greene, Taylor Greene, have expressed real concern, if not opposition, to the president's indication that he might seriously consider taking action in Iran. His analysis, I'm speculating once again, but analysis is, yes, I tried for 60 days. The Iranians didn't budge. They didn't believe that we would move forward. It's the 61st day and now, of course, it's the 67th day. And so the Iranians deserve what has taken place.

So -- and for the president himself, he raged and ran a campaign for the last year and a half prior to his election.

[01:15:03]

And one of the principal themes was he was going to single handedly keep the United States out of any foreign engagements. And we've seen that has proven to be very, very difficult, whether it's in Ukraine or even now as we approach this very difficult situation in Iran versus Israel.

Now, on the other side of the coin is there a strategic value to eliminating the regime that has for over from 78, 79 so 46 or so years has waged terrorist activities around the entire country, an entire world? And we ask ourselves, and I'm sure that the president's advisors are saying the same thing, that is, would the world better off if we absolutely eliminated Khamenei and those in Iran in positions of leadership?

But when we talk about war, and even though it has been my career as a service member in the United States Army, no soldier, no member of the armed forces moves forward and ever indicates that war is the absolute right thing to do. There are occasions this might be one where extra effort in terms of eliminating the potential for Iran to wage nuclear war might be advantageous.

But I shake my head to the right and left. And my big concern is, and my concern consistently across all these small wars that turn out to be big wars is do we know what will take place after the first day? Meaning have we established the end state? What is our objective? And it's the same question that's going to have to be faced by Israel.

And definitely if our administration decides to take action, then the question is, all right, we've struck. We've used bumper -- bunker bombs. We've opened up a cavity into the Fordow nuclear production facility. Yes, we can congratulate ourselves, but is that the end? Do we ultimately have what the president is seeking, an unconditional surrender? I'm just going to leave that as an open question.

HILL: Yes, it is a question I've heard, right? I mean, once that action begins, it doesn't automatically end with the dropping of those bombs. Obviously, there is much more that comes along with it. Major General Mark McCarley, really appreciate you joining us. Thank you.

Still ahead here, President Trump considering what move, if any, to make in the Middle East as the conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, a closer look at how the U.S. Is preparing ahead of that decision.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:22:23]

HILL: The U.S. State Department has created a special task force to help American citizens in the Middle East. CNN reported last week the department began organizing a task force to track developments before Israel carried out strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. Well, the U.S. Government has not evacuated any citizens from the Middle East, but the task force would coordinate such an effort if needed.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TAMMY BRUCE, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON: One of the highest priorities of the Trump administration is the safety and security of the American people. To that end, the Department of State has established the Middle East Task Force to help coordinate support for U.S. citizens, our U.S. diplomatic missions and personnel, and diplomatic engagement. The task force is operating 24 hours a day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Sources tell CNN the U.S. military is preparing for the possibility that President Trump does decide to offer assistance to Israel in the conflict with Iran. U.S. assets are being moved around the Middle East right now to give him, quote, options. The president on Tuesday posted to Truth Social, quote, we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran echoing a nearly identical thought from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just a day earlier. President Trump also reiterated his desire to stop Iran's nuclear program.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Is there any guarantee that if the U.S. did get involved militarily, that a U.S. bomb could destroy Iran's nuclear program and facilities?

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: You know that, look at you, right? There's no guarantee. But you're saying a guarantee on what?

COLLINS: Do you think if the U.S. got involved militarily, it would actually wipe out Iran's nuclear program or where's your assessment of that?

TRUMP: I hope their program is going to be wiped out long before that, but they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: A source says Central Command has even presented President Trump the option of joint U.S., Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Natasha Bertrand has more details on U.S. assets in the Middle East and how they could play a part in the conflict.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

Natasha Bertrand, CNN U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Dozens of U.S. Air Force tankers have been moved into the Middle East in recent days as a way, we're told, for the president to have military options should he decide to get more involved in the war between Iran and Israel.

Essentially, what these refueling tankers would allow the president to do, if he wanted to, is to do a range of military options ranging from helping the Israeli fighter aircraft refuel so that they can continue the pace of their airstrikes over Iran to a another option that would involve greater U.S. military involvement, which would be joint U.S.- Israeli strikes over Iran and against these nuclear facilities in Iran.

[01:25:02]

Essentially, if the U.S. wanted to deploy, for example, a B2 bomber, which is the only aircraft that it has that would carry these massive bunker busting bombs that would allow the U.S. to penetrate deep underground of the Fordow nuclear facility, then the B2 bomber would be able to be refueled by these tankers that are currently in the region and positioned to do so.

And so this essentially gives the President options, according to multiple sources for businesses familiar with the matter. Now, the U.S. military has also been repositioning a number of other assets into the Middle East, including the Nimitz aircraft carrier, which is currently en route to the region. It is going to join another aircraft carrier that is already there, the USS Carl Vinson.

And it's unclear just how long they are going to overlap, but they do both bring a tremendous amount of firepower and hardware to the region at a moment when, of course, the President is reportedly contemplating greater involvement in this military confrontation.

These aircraft carriers can be used to launch fighter jets, to carry out airstrikes, and of course, to help intercept incoming missiles and drones from Iran to Israel. And so U.S. Central Command right now working to give the President a large number of options for just what he can do militarily if he decides to get more involved in this conflict. Natasha Bertrand, CNN, at the Pentagon.

(END VIDEOTAPE) HILL: Details on the latest attacks between Israel and Iran. Just ahead, a closer look at what is happening overnight. Plus, what sources say President Trump is thinking about as he mulls this decision for potential U.S. strikes on Iran.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:31:27]

HILL: The fighting between Israel and Iran is now in its sixth day, with fresh strikes on both Tel Aviv and Tehran. Israel warning residents in one Tehran district to evacuate ahead of what it called strikes on military infrastructure.

The social media post, also noting "Your presence in the area will put your life in danger."

Meantime, Iran launching a new wave of missile strikes on Tel Aviv. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it also targeted Israeli air bases used to attack Iran. CNN has not been able to independently verify that claim.

President Trump, meantime, is demanding Iran's unconditional surrender. That coming in a social media post where he also had a warning for the country's Supreme Leader, calling him an easy target, but saying the U.S. won't take him out, at least for now.

CNN's senior White House correspondent Kristen Holmes has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The White House confirming President Donald Trump and prime minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on the phone on Tuesday. However, they would not give any indication of what the two leaders spoke about or when that call was.

The timing of that call is particularly important, particularly given the fact that Donald Trump sat down with his National Security Council with his heads of cabinets as well as top advisers, for an hour in the Situation Room, and what we were trying to glean from the White House from sources familiar was when the call with Netanyahu took place, was it before or after?

But they are not offering any information here as we continue to talk to these White House officials who say everything is just too sensitive.

Now, one of the things that we have been reporting is Donald Trump's shift away from this diplomatic avenue that he originally wanted to take. Donald Trump had been incredibly wary of getting the United States more involved in what was going on between Israel and Iran.

But the president in recent days has started to shift towards this understanding, towards this posture that the United States might need to be involved. Now, one of the things that I've been told by administration officials

that they are watching for is if Iran strikes any U.S. assets, any military bases, anything that has any place that houses American citizens. That would lead to an almost immediate retaliation.

But what we're not quite sure of is, is the United States or has President Trump come to a place where he will agree to have the United States strike first, to be actually more participatory in this fight between Israel and Iran?

As we've said, there are so many factions within the Republican Party and within Donald Trump's closest advisers, some urging him America first policy. Do not get involved.

Others saying Israel can handle themselves and others still saying that it is the United States' duty to get involved and to protect Israel.

One of the things I am told is a big consideration for the president and for the White House is how long this would actually take to be done. Is this -- if the United States did enter into this conflict, is this something that would be incredibly drawn out, or could be concluded in a matter of days?

Donald Trump, the president, he is insistent that anything that happens, whether he's involved or not involved, is a short runway. They do not want to be tangled up into something in the Middle East for years to come.

One of the things, of course, he promised on the campaign trail was there would be no wars when he became president.

Kristen Holmes, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Leaders around the world are weighing in on the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. Turkey's president calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the, quote, "greatest threat to security in the Middle East". Mr. Erdogan also warning the conflict could spread.

[01:34:54]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): Israel which attacks Iran with the unlimited support of the West, destroys Gaza and bullies every country in the region is actually unaware of what it is doing. Perhaps it will realize its mistake in the future, but we fear that by then it will be too late.

It should not be forgotten that no country in this ancient geography is limited to its own borders and administration. Israel is risking its own existence and the future of its society step by step with every oppression it commits, every blood it sheds, every crime against humanity it commits.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Meantime, French President Emmanuel Macron telling reporters at the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday he believes the, quote, "biggest error today is the secret regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos".

And in his first comments on the Israel-Iran conflict, Chinese leader Xi Jinping saying his country is deeply concerned, adding military conflict is not a way to solve problems and the escalation of regional tensions is not in the common interest of the international community.

Abbas Milani is the director of Iranian studies at Stanford University and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. It's good to have you with us tonight.

Can you talk to us about how this potential U.S. involvement in your -- in your view, would actually change the calculus for Iran?

ABBAS MILANI, DIRECTOR OF IRANIAN STUDIES, STANFORD UNIVERSITY: I think it will change it radically. I think any chance that they think they might draw out this fight to something that they can at least declare a draw will end.

I think they know that this will be a very important change in the balance of forces. And if they decide to employ some of these missiles that they have in Iran's southern bases to attack U.S. bases or to attack shipping lanes, I think you're talking about a quantitatively different kind of war.

HILL: Quantitatively different. Do you believe it could spread within the region?

MILANI: Well, I think if Iran is pushed to that extent, I think it is their last gambit. It is a gambit that they need to survive. I think they might take that.

I hope they don't, because I think it will, first of all, cost many, many, many, many innocent Iranians lives. I think people in Iran don't -- haven't wanted this war. This is a war that Mr. Khamenei, essentially with his intransigence, his rhetoric forced on the Iranian society.

But they are paying the price. And if the war does expand, if Iran does attack U.S. bases, you can certainly expect Mr. Trump to return the favor forcefully, and the price will be paid by the innocent Iranians.

HILL: And talking about the Iranian people, right, there has been -- as we know, there is no shortage of opposition, frankly, to the current regime. Do you think, though, what is happening in this moment, does it strengthen that dissent, or could it actually have the opposite effect because of what the Iranian people are living through in this moment? MILANI: Well, I think it has strengthened aspects of the dissent. Some

people from inside Iran, some very prominent people from inside Iran, have issued statements.

Mr. Panahi (ph), for example, Narges Mohammadi, Mr. Abadi, a group of other prominent civil rights activists, have issued a statement saying no to war, no to enrichment and no to the Iranian regime.

It is a remarkable declaration that basically says we don't want this regime, and this regime has gotten us into this. We don't want the war.

They very much criticize what they call an unprovoked attack by Israel. They want that to end, but they want the Iranian regime to end as well. And they say very clearly, categorically, they also want enrichment to end.

So you are hearing voices from inside Iran and some voices from outside Iran who are criticizing Israel, but also criticizing the Iranian regime.

On the whole, I think the Iranian regime is politically now at the weakest point than it has been.

HILL: Given that, you know, as you said, the weakest point that it has been there's so much talk, especially today, right, so much talk about regime change. Very little talk, though, about what the day after looks like. Do you see what that day after would look like if there were in fact a regime change? Where is the -- where is the broadest support within Iran?

MILANI: I think the broadest support for the day after is for a democratic, secular Iran. Almost anything exactly opposite of what this regime has been.

[01:39:49]

MILANI: This is an ideological regime given to war. People want a peaceful regime given to democracy and based on the vote of the people. But what the people want might not be exactly what they get.

There are reports today, unconfirmed reports, only one station has declared that, that Mr. Khamenei has given up some of his powers to the IRGC command committee.

If that is indeed the case, then we are seeing, I think, a very serious first step towards very important changes within the Iranian regime. And if that happens, then the Iranian, I think, opposition will have a much more active role in deciding the future.

Most people are afraid that an IRGC junta might be the alternative that takes over, but I don't think that can last.

The Iranian society has so many remarkable structural problems that only a peaceful, democratic, inclusive alternative can begin to solve it. HILL: Abbas Milani, really appreciate your insight. Thank you.

U.S. intelligence officials believe Israel's attacks have set Iran's nuclear program back, but only by a matter of months. And the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities have been severely impact, but not wiped out completely.

Rafael Grossi telling CNN one key site however in particular has suffered significant damage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAFAEL GROSSI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: A facility I would say that the one that has sustained the worst, I would say, damage is one which is called Natanz.

The above ground facility was wiped out, was completely destroyed, and on top of that, the entire electrical power installation on which the whole compound operates was also taken out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: So just how long Iran can continue to launch a missile strikes on Israel depends on the size of its arsenal, which in many ways is a mystery.

CNN's Nick Paton Walsh tells us what analysts believe Iran may have.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF SECURITY INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The loudest clock ticking is how long this intensity of conflict can go on.

Iran, under greatest pressure, may reach a breaking point first. They're estimated to have had a stockpile of up to 3,000 missiles, between 2,000 and 1,000 of them able to reach Israel.

BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, SENIOR FELLOW, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: The best estimate we have is, at best, a back of the envelope calculation of anywhere between 1,000 to 2,000 medium range ballistic missiles.

WALSH: But those stockpiles were challenged before this phase of the conflict. Iran fired about 120 at Israel on the 13th of April, 2024, and then another 200 on the 1st of October that year. And in the last five days have fired an estimated 380.

700 used in a year, and at very best 1,300 left. Others less optimistic.

EYAL PINKO, BEGIN SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Take into consideration that they fired around 400 -- 500 in the last four days and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what they had, I believe they stayed now with 800, 700 more. WALSH: But Israel has claimed success in hitting the missiles'

launchers, releasing this graphic of targets including at least a third, they say, of Iran's surface-to-surface launchers.

PINKO: Israel is trying now not only to hit or to defend the missiles in the air to intercept them but also to destroy the vehicles before launching. Because this is the -- this is the weakest part of the chain.

WALSH: Israel has claimed Iran could make 300 ballistic missiles a month like this Fatah 1, apparently used in the recent attacks.

But on October the 26th, three waves of retaliatory strikes by Israel hit Iran's air defense and missile production, in which the U.K. defense chief said only 100 bombs took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense system.

"It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year," he said.

TALEBLU: I don't even think they want to go below four digits, but it's certainly a bind that the regime finds themselves in, you know, for the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own. And having to expend these ballistic missiles during a time of war rather than a time of crisis precisely puts it in this bind.

[01:44:44]

WALSH: The mystery number of how many missiles Iran has left dictating its actions, and the outcome of this defining conflict.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN -- London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Well, oil prices are up again as the world watches to see if the conflict between Israel and Iran will disrupt supplies. The price of crude has been fluctuating this week, with traders, of course keeping a close eye on the situation.

There are concerns Iran might retaliate by cutting off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, or by targeting energy infrastructure in the region.

Meantime, Israel says it does not expect fuel shortages after Iran struck an oil refinery in Haifa. Its energy ministry says preparations had been made to secure enough fuel ahead of that strike on Monday.

Israel and the U.S., meantime, are mulling over the fate of Iran's Supreme Leader. So just how vulnerable is the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? Well take a closer look next.

[01:45:34]

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HILL: The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem will be closed for the next three days amid the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. All employees and their families have been directed to shelter in place.

A statement from the embassy says consular services in Tel Aviv will also be closed until Friday. So far though, there's been no announcement about whether the embassy will help private U.S. citizens leave Israel. The country's largest international airport and its seaports are currently closed.

To this point, Donald Trump has opposed an Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but he is now warning Iran -- warning Iran that that could change.

The U.S. president posting on social media Tuesday, quote, "We know exactly where the so-called Supreme Leader is hiding. He's an easy target." The president adding, they will not take him out, at least for now, but went on to warn "our patience is wearing thin".

With Khamenei's fate hanging in the balance, he is also promising a strong response against Israel, saying Iran will show no mercy.

Whether he can follow through on that vow and whether the Iranian people stand with him, however, well, those are open questions as CNN's Melissa Bell reports.

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MELISA BELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: For over 35 years, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei has ruled with an iron grip, delivering a blunt message to the West.

ALI HOSSEINI KHAMENEI, IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER (through translator): We in no way are willing to start an all-out war with the United States but if it so happens, we will inevitably put up a very strong defense.

BELL: Five days into an all-out conflict with Israel, the question now is how firm Ayatollah Khamenei's grip remains. Regional proxies like Hezbollah and Bashar Al-Assads Syrian regime are on the sidelines, leaving Iran to fight back alone.

KARIM SADJADPOUR, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: It's led by an 85-year-old Supreme Leader who doesn't really have the physical or cognitive acumen to be fighting this very high- tech war.

So you know, this is, as other guests have said, probably the most vulnerable the Iranian regime has been in many, many years.

BELL: It was the 1989 death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of Iran's Islamic Revolution, that brought Khamenei to power. Since then, he's brutally suppressed internal dissent. First in 2009, when the Green Movement protested what it claimed were rigged election results.

KHAMENEI: If they don't stop this, then the consequences and the writing (ph) everything, they will be held accountable for all this.

BELL: Then again, in 2022, the death in police custody of a young Kurdish-Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, sparked months of nationwide protests met once again with violent repression.

Israeli attacks have now eliminated several key regime figures targeting not only nuclear facilities, but also Iran's state broadcaster.

Israel's prime minister has even addressed what he believes would happen if Khamenei himself were targeted.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: It's not going to escalate the conflict. It's going to end the conflict.

BELL: For now, an American opposition appears to be holding back Israel's plan to strike Khamenei directly. But the Supreme Leader has vowed to fight on.

KHAMENEI: We must give a strong response. God willing, we will respond with strength and we will show them no mercy.

BELL: The question now whether Iranians themselves will stand with the leader they've so often opposed.

Melissa Bell, CNN -- Paris.

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HILL: As missile strikes loomed overhead in northern Israel, the challenging birth of three babies was taking place in an underground hospital.

Here's CNN's Nick (INAUDIBLE) blood with their story.

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NICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A woman gave birth to triplets Monday in Israel's Rambam Hospital, one of several in the country that have moved some operations underground as Iranian strikes hit the city of Haifa this week. According to Reuters.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The challenging time now is just to see triplets during the transition here. During time of war, which is kind of more challenging to manage this case.

NICK: Iranian missiles targeted Haifa, Israel's third largest city and where Rambam hospital is located. Representatives of the hospital said they were treating roughly 600 patients around the time the triplets were born.

[01:54:46]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She had three little girls, she has premature little girls. She's happy. This is their first babies and she's well. Just this morning she was well.

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HILL: A much-needed bit of good news. Thanks so much for joining me. I'm Erica Hill.

Stay tuned. Becky Anderson is up next from Abu Dhabi as our special coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict continues.

Stay with CNN.

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