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B-2 Bombers Head Across Pacific As Trump Weighs Military Options; NYT: Iran's Leader Names Possible Successors In Case He Is Killed; Soon: Trump Holds National Security Meeting Amid Mideast Conflict; Cuomo Seeks A Political Comeback, Similar To Trump's; Cuomo & Mamdani Lead In Crowded NYC Mayoral Primary Race; Polls: Young Democrats More Likely To Favor Mamdani Over Cuomo; At Least 8 Dead After Hot Air Balloon Accident In Southern Brazil. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired June 21, 2025 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[18:01:16]

JESSICA DEAN, CNN HOST: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM.

I'm Jessica Dean in New York, and we begin with breaking news out of Washington as President Trump has just arrived at the White House for a meeting with his National Security team in the Situation Room.

Of course, this comes as he weighs taking U.S. military action in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

And tonight, CNN has learned multiple U.S. B-2 stealth bombers are now headed west from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Now, that's key because they are the only planes capable of dropping the 30-pound bunker-buster bombs that could destroy a key underground nuclear facility in Iran. The latest development coming as President Trump gives diplomatic efforts a "maximum of two weeks" while he considers his military options and worth noting that officials say the moving of those bombers does not necessarily indicate that any decision has yet been made.

Joining us now is CNN political and global affairs analyst and AXIOS correspondent, Barak Ravid.

Barak, always great to have you on. I know you do have some new reporting tonight about the President's diplomatic efforts with Iran through the Turkish President. What are you learning on that front?

BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL AND FOREIGN POLICY ANALYST: Good evening, Jessica. So I think many of our viewers now remember that last Monday, President Trump put out a Truth Social post that called on Iranians to evacuate Tehran. It was a very dramatic post and what happened in the hours before that post was even more dramatic.

President Trump and President Erdogan of Turkey had a phone call. During that phone call, Erdogan asked Trump if he is willing to meet the Iranians in Istanbul the next day. Trump said not only that he is willing, and not only is he willing to send Vice President Vance or White House Envoy Witkoff, he said, I am willing to come myself to meet the Iranian President if that could lead to a deal that would prevent the U.S. from having to take military action to eliminate Iran's nuclear program.

Erdogan then calls the Iranians, tells them Trump is willing to do this meeting tomorrow in Istanbul and the Iranians said, okay, we need to get approval from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Iranian President, the Iranian Foreign Minister tried for several hours to get that greenlight, but they couldn't reach the Supreme Leader because he was in hiding in one of his bunkers, because he was afraid that he would be assassinated by Israel and he was incommunicado.

And so, after several hours of not getting a greenlight, they went back to the Turks and said, we just can't reach him and we can't get an approval, and this meeting that was possible, that was supposed to happen didn't fall through in the end.

DEAN: And Barak, Iran is calling for Israel's strikes to stop before it will enter into any diplomatic talks. Do you think that's something that could even be -- that Netanyahu could even be convinced of? That is a possibility.

RAVID: I find it not very likely, especially because at the moment, President Trump hasn't shown any real willingness to press Netanyahu to do it. I am not saying Trump doesn't have the capability to do it, but he seems very reluctant to really, you know, go into such an argument with Netanyahu when at the end of the day, Trump is pretty satisfied with what Netanyahu has been doing over the last 10 days.

So this scenario of Trump, you know, going to Netanyahu and telling him you need to stop now, seems to me not very likely.

[18:05:12]

DEAN: And how are, just more broadly, how is the Israeli government thinking President Trump and the American and the chances of American involvement right now? How are they evaluating that?

RAVID: So a senior Israeli official I spoke to an hour ago said that the overall assessment in the Israeli government that Trump is going to join and that they don't see any chance that the diplomatic path would lead anywhere. Therefore, they are saying it might take another few days, another week. But Trump eventually will realize that there is no other choice but to join the war and knock out the enrichment facility in Fordow.

And I think this is why the Israelis, at least for now, are not taking their own action to strike this nuclear facility.

DEAN: And what are the conversations or are you hearing any of the conversations about what happens if the U.S. does join and they do move forward with this military action? What comes after that? Any sort of preparations or thinking around what then comes after that?

RAVID: I don't think anybody is thinking that far, at least not in the Israeli government. The focus is on what Trump is going to decide. There is no thinking about what happens afterwards.

I think the Israelis -- some Israeli officials think that if Trump joins the war, it is not only going to be this very surgical strike on Fordow, but that the U.S. would have to engage in a much wider campaign in order to neutralize any possible Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces in the region. This means, according to Israeli officials, that the U.S. could also strike the Iranian Navy, the IRGC naval capabilities, the short range missiles Iran have. There's like a lot of those missiles and they're all directed at U.S. bases in the region.

And I think that the Israelis right now are looking at a scenario that it is much broader than just this nuclear facility in Fordow.

DEAN: What would that entail if it is much broader?

RAVID: It is something that is, you know, a more prolonged campaign that is, on the one hand, taking out the nuclear facility in Fordow, but on the other hand, U.S. fighter jets striking Iranian missile facilities, Iranian missile batteries, Iranian IRGC Navy assets.

The Iranians, for example, the IRGC Navy has capabilities to close the Strait of Hormuz. And I think this is something that could obviously influence commercial shipping, oil prices, and Israeli officials think that if the U.S. goes in, it would want to prevent the Iranians from being able to close down the Strait of Hormuz.

DEAN: All right, Barak Ravid, always great to have you on. Thank you so much. We really appreciate it.

RAVID: Thank you, Jessica.

DEAN: And lets discuss more now with CNN national security analyst and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Beth Sanner.

Beth, great to have you as well.

I want to go back to this initial piece of information that we are getting right now, or that we've learned in the last couple of hours, which is just that these that multiple B-2 bombers are now on the move and while this -- you know, we've been told this doesn't mean that anything is imminent or any final decision has been made, you have sat in on a lot of these conversations and meetings in previous conflicts where they are evaluating this sort of thing. So you know what is happening in the build up to any decision being made.

What do you make of this information? What does it tell you?

BETH SANNER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, you know, the President is going to be meeting now. He came back from Bedminster for this meeting. The B-2s are in the air. So it does seem to me that, you know, even if the B-2s do move into the region in a kind of a pre- positioning thing that there is a decision to be made. Right?

And so, the fact that he is coming back on a Saturday night from Bedminster, if he just wanted an update, he would have stayed. He is in a decisional meeting.

Now, President Trump obviously doesn't want to actually bomb, you know, he still is holding out hopes, I think of a negotiating solution even though that's narrowing and narrowing. So maybe a decision isn't going to be made tonight.

[18:10:04]

But that meeting is very important and the Intel Community is in that meeting to provide information about Iran's intentions, their capabilities, and also to keep track of what else is going on in the region with the potential of the militias, for example, in Iraq attacking U.S. bases.

So it is a very, very important role to provide that ground truth in any of them in these kinds of meetings.

DEAN: And I do think it is interesting, too, that that you are making note of the fact that he did choose to come back and do this meeting in person and do it at the White House.

SANNER: Indeed. You know, so President Trump really enjoys being away on the weekends and you know, and he doesn't really enjoy being in the Sit Room. These are, if you're going into the Sit Room, it is purposeful, and that is to get everyone together at the same time to be sorting through these things.

And he has asked three questions, Jessica, as far as the press reporting has put out there. He is asked, you know, whether the strike is necessary? In other words, could Israel do it on their own? Whether it would be effective in in eliminating Iran's nuclear program and whether it would put the United States in a position of a prolonged war?

Those last two, whether it would eliminate the nuclear program and the risk of this dragging the United States into a prolonged war, those are questions that are still very, very much out there and not resolvable, maybe in a way -- in an answer that would make an easy yes, because this could go in a path that's definitely not just the way he would want.

DEAN: Right. And then you have Iran kind of watching all of this unfold. Obviously, the movements that are being made. But then also, too, we were talking to Nic Robertson, Israel is striking further East, further South there within Iran. How are they reading all of this?

SANNER: Well, it is interesting, the article that came out in "The New York Times" today about the Supreme Leader naming three potential successors that the Assembly of Experts, which is this group of 88 super old guys, clerics, who would make a decision for a successor and you know, Khamenei like most autocrats has not named a successor.

And so this is kind of marking this idea that that the Supreme Leader is doubling down, but at the same time, he is prepared to become a martyr and wants to make sure that his legacy of an Islamic Republic is still intact at the end of this. So it shows how seriously they are taking all of this. DEAN: And as all of this is going on, we have seen this interesting dynamic back here at home within the Trump administration that's been playing out between the President and his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard obviously, this is a position that was created after September 11th, to kind of collect all the -- a central place for all of that information and intelligence to go through.

If she is indeed being sidelined or even sort of sidelined at this moment, what does that mean?

SANNER: Well, obviously, I mean, the easy answer is its all bad. Now, number one, you have John Ratcliffe as head of CIA and no indication that there is any issue there. He is going to be in all of these meetings and presenting the intelligence from the CIA's perspective.

The Intelligence Community, though, brings together all the different agencies, and it has a unique role in not just providing one perspective, but the perspective of everyone and each of those agencies brings with them, expertise based on what they do.

And so, you know, it is a real blow, I think, to the President getting good information.

I don't think that what is happening right now is just because of the difference over the Iran issue. I think this is something that has been coming, and it is a symptom, but it is not a sustainable thing and it would not be good for this to go on like this in terms of, you know, U.S. National Security interests in my view.

DEAN: All right, Beth Sanner, thanks so much for your time. We appreciate it.

SANNER: Thanks, Jessica.

DEAN: Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo looking to write his own political comeback story as New York City gets ready for its Democratic Primary for mayor on Tuesday. We will talk more about this when we come back.

You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:19:32]

DEAN: President Trump back at the White House. That's where CNN's Alayna Treene is standing by. And Alayna, we know that he has made his way back there to Washington after being out this weekend to meet with his National Security team. What more are you learning about this meeting?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Yes, look, I mean, he just touched down moments ago. We were out there on the South Lawn, Jessica, hoping he would stop and talk to reporters, but he did not.

He has been -- he hasn't stopped and talked to reporters all day, actually, which is out of character for the President. We are told he went -- we saw him walk right into the White House, and now he is going to be meeting with his National Security team.

[18:20:07]

Look, I mean, the President, in all my conversations today with White House officials, they say that really his mindset is still where it was yesterday, which is that he is still waiting to see whether or not the Iranians are going to be more forthcoming in wanting to have these talks with the United States and really reopen negotiations to try and find some sort of diplomatic solution to end this conflict in the Middle East, rather than, you know, the other option, which is to have the United States go into a more offensive posture and use the U.S. military to really strike some of these Iranian nuclear facilities.

Now, I have been told repeatedly that part of the reason the President is really heavily weighing this decision is because he recognizes that many people in the American public, but also within his own base and his own support, really have different ideas of how they want this to go. You have one side that really does not want the United States getting involved in another foreign war, but then you also have the side of many Republican senators, many of the President's closest allies, who are arguing that the United States needs to stand firm behind Israel and support them in this effort to really ensure that Iran never has a nuclear weapon.

And so that's really what we continue to hear behind-the-scenes about how these talks are going. I am sure that his National Security team is going to be updating him with the latest on where this stands, but one thing that's also been clear, and we've now heard this repeatedly, both privately and publicly from the Iranians, is that they believe that Israel needs to cease their strikes on their country in order for these talks to resume in a more significant and substantial way, unclear whether or not the President believes that that is something that should happen.

When he was asked about that publicly yesterday, he said that he is not inclined to tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he should cease those strikes. So all of that, of course, still kind of, you know, moving parts here as he continues to get more information from his team and really continue to weigh this decision -- Jessica.

DEAN: Yes, and Alayna, it also comes as we have learned, these B-2 bombers left Missouri today and headed out. What more can you tell us about that decision and what that might potentially mean?

TREENE: Yes. So these B-2 bombers apparently left. They appear to have taken off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri yesterday, heading west toward Guam. And of course, I think the most significant thing here is to recognize that these B-2 bombers are the weapons that experts say are really the only type of bombs that could really penetrate through the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran. That is really what we have heard now from the Israelis, that they may not be able to successfully reach with their own weapons, and so significant that they are moving west. But all to say as well, we have now heard from U.S. officials that that does not necessarily mean that the President is ordering this in an effort to prepare for a potential strike. Another official or two Defense officials, I should say, cautioned that any movement of these B-2 bombers does not mean that an operation is imminent.

And so all of this, though, of course, as the world is really standing by and waiting to see what the President ultimately decides here, earlier this week, we heard him via a message delivered through his Press Secretary, say that he is going to only have maximum two weeks for him to make this decision. He could move that timetable up. It does seem a bit nebulous, that timeframe that we've been hearing from our conversations here at the White House, but all to say, very unclear what the President is going to do ultimately -- Jessica.

DEAN: All right, more to come, Alayna Treene though, with the very latest as of right now from the White House. Thank you so much.

A hot air balloon carrying 21 people crashes in Southern Brazil. That shocking video is ahead.

You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I would say two weeks would be the maximum.

REPORTER: Do you trust President Putin?

TRUMP: You know, in about two weeks.

REPORTER: In your mind, is Ukraine doing enough to get this -- to get this --

TRUMP: I'd rather tell you in about two weeks from now because I can't say yes or no.

REPORTER: Do you still believe that Putin actually wants to end the war?

TRUMP: I can't tell you that, but I'll let you know in about two weeks.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: As you see there, two weeks is a phrase we have heard from President Trump many times before. Now he says, it is the maximum amount of time he is willing to allow for diplomacy before making a decision on striking Iran.

Meanwhile, many Republicans and Democrats are pushing back against any potential U.S. involvement.

Semafor White House correspondent, Shelby Talcott and politics reporter, Jasmine Wright are joining us now.

Good to have both of you here.

Shelby, I want to start first with you on some reporting you've done on Republicans and how they are split on what the U.S. should do, how they should go forward. Earlier this week, we saw Trump's former top strategist, Steve Bannon visiting the White House. He has been one of the major voices opposed to the U.S. getting involved.

What are you learning? Who is he listening to? Is it people like Steve Bannon? Is it others? What have you found?

SHELBY TALCOTT, SEMAFOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, he is fielding a number of calls. He has been talking to Lindsey Graham, who is a big proponent for going forward and sort of finishing Iran, as he has said. He has taken a call from Tucker Carlson according to the. President himself, who said that publicly.

He sat down for lunch with Steve Bannon earlier this week, which was notable, because just a few hours later, he came out with that statement saying that they were going to give a maximum of two weeks to make a decision. And so he is really fielding a whole host of calls from people within the Republican Party, not to mention his entire National Security team who he has been meeting with almost daily over the past few days.

DEAN: It is really -- it is such an interesting time, too Jasmine, to kind of watch how he is making this decision. It is obviously a delicate balance of what he is trying to do here.

If he does end up getting involved, how does the White House sell this, especially knowing that he promised voters he would not get America involved in more wars?

[18:30:15]

JASMINE WRIGHT, POLITICS REPORTER, NOTUS: Yes, I've asked the White House this very question, Jessica, just this week. And their answer basically was that Donald Trump's position that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon or nuclear capabilities has not changed. They go back to the fact that he said it before he was president when he was just a citizen. And they say that if you don't know that about Donald Trump, then you haven't been paying attention very closely.

So, his message to his supporters and that really kind of whipped up MAGA base is that Donald Trump has been the same position for the entirety that people have really known him on this issue of whether or not Iran can have a nuclear weapon. So that is what they're basically leaning on to explain the President's position as he takes these two weeks or so to really decide what to do going forward.

And I think you're kind of starting to see the mentality of the MAGA base shift just a little bit, right? Initially, it was, obviously, this cannot happen. This would be against what President Trump has said. And now some of the folks are shifting to, you know, if it's just strikes and not boots on the ground, maybe that's okay. So, I think you are seeing him trying to - or being successful in kind of whittling down his opposition within his own base. But the question is, how far does that go?

DEAN: Yes, Shelby, what are you learning about that particular piece of it? What - how he's been able to thread the needle or might be able to thread the needle with the MAGA base?

TALCOTT: Right. Jasmine's right, the President has been really clear, you know, he - A, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, but also, B, that he does not want to get the U.S. into a prolonged conflict. And I think that that's the sort of debate that's happening both internally and that we're seeing publicly within the Republican Party, which is, if we do, do direct strikes against Iran, does that mean that we are going to get into a prolonged war?

And that is sort of the big thing that Donald Trump is debating and figuring out, is the U.S. going to be able to sort of go into Iran and get out very quickly or are there going to be sort of repercussions that we might not realize in this very moment that lead to a longer conflict?

DEAN: And as all this is going on, Jasmine, we are seeing this kind of schism emerge between Trump and his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. He, yesterday, called his intel chief's recent assessment that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, quote, "wrong." She's, of course, long been skeptical of military intervention. What are you learning about this dynamic?

WRIGHT: Yes. Well, Donald Trump is definitely undermining his Director of National Intelligence by repeatedly saying that she is wrong when asked by reporters in these moments. Obviously, in an issue like this, potentially getting into conflict with Iran directly, not just via proxies of Israel and other places, you want to have your intelligence community kind of on the same page. So, when you go in, you're going in with the most fulsome amount of information. And here, we're starting to see kind of a schism between the two.

You're starting to see also Tulsi Gabbard, who, in March, basically said that Iran was not nearing - I'm paraphrasing here, was not nearing getting a nuclear weapon, kind of trying to walk that back and say publicly that reporters and others are mischaracterizing their comments. And so, I think that you're seeing a kind of a wider or a larger frustration to her from the President.

Obviously, we know that in her confirmation hearing earlier this year, I spoke to one person who said the President wants her to get into this role. He doesn't want to have to help her. And so, I think you're kind of seeing a through line from that moment back when it was kind of questionable whether or not she would get confirmed to now in her role as DNI.

DEAN: Yes. And Shelby, we also got this new polling from Fox News this week that showed registered voters in the U.S. are fairly split on Israel's decision to launch these military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. What did you think when you saw these numbers? TALCOTT: You know, I thought it was really interesting, actually, and it sort of goes back to the debate that is raging within the Republican Party. And I think part of the reason that Americans are split on it is because there is an inherent question of what happens with the U.S. Do we get involved or do we not when Israel, a key ally, does something like this. And so, it goes back to this broader question of how much do we want to get directly involved.

And I've heard from Pentagon officials who have argued that Israel doing this sort of inevitably gets us involved no matter what. And so, that is something that I think a lot of Americans are keeping an eye out for.

DEAN: All right. Shelby Talcott and Jasmine Wright, thanks to both of you on this Saturday. We really appreciate it.

TALCOTT: Thanks.

[18:35:00]

DEAN: Less than a year after President Trump made a political comeback, former Governor Andrew Cuomo hoping he can pull off something similar. How he's trying to convince voters he should be New York's next mayor.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:39:48]

DEAN: Tuesday is primary day in New York City and Andrew Cuomo hoping to make a political comeback. He resigned four years ago after several women accused him of sexual harassment. Cuomo and Donald Trump have long been political enemies, but they also have a lot of things in common. It's a very interesting dynamic relationship. CNN Senior Reporter, Isaac Dovere, really dove into it.

And Isaac, you do have this new reporting on their similarities, how Cuomo's trying to rebuild his political image and really come back from all of this. What did you find?

EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Well, that's right, Jessica. In the story up on cnn.com right now, what I get into is this long, decades-long relationship between Cuomo and Trump. They've never really been friends, but their lives have constantly been intersecting and intertwined.

It goes back to Donald Trump recording a video for Andrew Cuomo's bachelor party. And then 19 years later, Andrew Cuomo being a guest at Ivanka Trump's wedding, at Donald Trump's daughter, obviously.

And then, all of this building up to the really crucible months of 2020, when they were dealing with a lot of major issues together. Then Trump is president the first time and Cuomo is governor. They dealt with COVID. They dealt with immigration issues and access to information in New York state. They dealt with infrastructure money. They dealt with social justice issues. A lot of things that were going on with them going head-to-head at each other. And to people who were involved then, they say if Cuomo is successful and wins the Democratic primary on Tuesday and gets elected mayor of New York City, this is maybe the precursor to this - to another chapter of the relationship that would be between them.

DEAN: Yes, it is really interesting because, you know, part of Cuomo's sell to New Yorkers is that he knows how to go up against Donald Trump.

DOVERE: That's right. And it's been a big issue in that mayoral campaign for all the candidates. And Cuomo has said repeatedly, he's the only one who knows how to do it and who has the stature to do it. He knows Trump, he's done it before.

And what I get into in this article is what that actually looked like, including if you remember when they were having those dueling COVID briefings in 2020, that was what we all saw, but there was a lot going on behind the scenes that was actually a more productive, constructive relationship between them where they would kind of acknowledge to each other that they both knew that they were fighting in public, but that they had to work more together behind the scenes.

DEAN: So interesting. And I guess it all goes back to Queens, huh?

DOVERE: It does. Those accents - those Queens accents, and each of them, the really distinctive twist on the Queens accent, but it is - these two guys maybe facing each other again and dealing with each other again. And it goes back actually all the way to when Donald Trump's father used to be a customer at Andrew Cuomo's grandfather's little grocery store in Queens. That's how far this goes back.

DEAN: Wow. All right. Isaac Dovere, a great piece on cnn.com right now. Thank you so much. We appreciate it.

DOVERE: Thank you.

DEAN: Alongside former Governor Cuomo, recent polls show another front runner in the crowded field for Tuesday's primary election here in New York City, and that's State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. CNN Chief Data Analyst, Harry Enten, is joining us now to run the numbers on all this.

Hello, Harry.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Hello.

DEAN: So, talk to us about how Mamdani has closed the gap with Cuomo.

ENTEN: First, I just want to say I have a Bronx accent, not a Queens accent, okay? So, I think we can be all inclusive ...

DEAN: It's nuance.

ENTEN: Yes.

DEAN: Yes.

ENTEN: All-inclusive of all five boroughs here. But look, yes, exactly. Look, here's the deal. Andrew Cuomo has had a lead throughout this entire primary, but that lead has been closing, closing, closing, closing, closing. The most recent Marist Poll, you can see it on your screen right there. He was ahead by 20 points over Mamdani back in May. It's now down to just 10 points. The lead has been cut in half, and I will note that this poll was actually taken a little bit while ago. It would not be surprising to me if that Cuomo lead was in fact a little bit smaller. So, the boy from Queens - the now man from Queens, I think he might be a little bit worried based upon this polling.

DEAN: It is interesting because, look, a lot of younger voters who are driving Mamdani's surge, let's call it, but young Democrats across the country have shown they're pretty fed up with the establishment kind of writ large. How does that then factor into this race?

ENTEN: Yes. Look, we saw in 2016 in the Democratic primary Bernie Sanders riding a wave of young support. We saw the same thing in 2020, but the Democratic establishment fought back. This is basically a repeat of that, the fight that we've been seeing in the Democratic primaries, right, in the Democratic Party between younger Democrats and older Democrats, and the split in this primary is insane.

I mean, under the age of 45, look at that, Mamdani is ahead by 48 points. Andrew Cuomo, though, makes up for that by leading by - get this - by 38 points among Democrats 45 and older. And of course, they traditionally have made up the majority, the vast majority, of Democratic primary voters in a mayoral primary in New York City.

So, this is not just a local race. It's a national race as well.

[18:45:04]

You heard Isaac talking about the Donald Trump connection, but it's also about the soul, a fight for the soul of the Democratic city. So, this is not just a local race. It's a national race as well. You heard Isaac talking about the Donald Trump connection, but it's also about the soul, a fight for the soul of the Democratic Party. Can younger Democrats actually succeed in toppling a longtime name in Democratic Party politics? The polling says Mamdani will come close, but no cigar.

DEAN: Okay. And what about the primary mirroring a trend we're seeing nationally within the Democratic Party?

ENTEN: Yes, you know, this is another way we put it, right? What is the group of voters that saved Joe Biden in 2020? What was the group of voters that saved Hillary Clinton's bid in 2016? It was black voters, right? And we're seeing that racial divide again within the Democratic Party.

Look, Mamdani leads among white voters by eight points, but look at that lead that Andrew Cuomo has among black voters, 54 points. That looks so much like what we saw in 2020 with Joe Biden winning on the backs of black voters. You saw obviously Jim Clyburn from South Carolina endorsing Andrew Cuomo in this race.

So again, what we're just seeing here is a mirroring of the trends that we've seen nationally within the Democratic Party, where young white progressives want to go one way and older black moderates want to go another way. And right now, if the polling is to be believed, the moderate black voters will win once again that tug of war within the Democratic Party and get their man the nomination.

DEAN: And obviously, as we've noted, Cuomo's still in the lead with that polling that you noted, not super, super recent as in like the last 24 hours, but the latest polling that we have.

ENTEN: Correct.

DEAN: It's a 10-point lead at this stage. Also, there's ranked voting in New York City. But taking all of that into account, what does that lead say to you at this moment in time?

ENTEN: Look, it says that Andrew Cuomo's the favorite, but he's not the runaway favorite. And the way we know he's not the runaway favorite is take that final round polling that we have this year in which Cuomo holds a 10-point lead and look at how much the difference was between the final 21 - 2021 final round polling and the result. It was 11 points.

If all of a sudden you put that 11-point miss or, you know, difference, I should say, between what we saw in 2021 and apply it to Cuomo's lead, he could win by 20, but he could also lose by a point to Mamdani. So, this lead is not secure.

Yes, Andrew Cuomo is the favorite going into Tuesday, but if we have a polling difference like we saw in 2021, Andrew Cuomo may in fact not win the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York, and that would be quite the story.

DEAN: Yes. Okay, lastly, how does being mayor of a big city then serve as a stepping stone for national politics? Because there's a lot of people who say maybe Cuomo wants to run for president next or, you know, we've seen other mayors try to - major cities, Mike Bloomberg, for example, Bill de Blasio.

ENTEN: It's a horrible stepping stone. I mean, just ask Mike Bloomberg, ask Bill de Blasio, ask Rudy Giuliani, none of them became President of the United States. None of them really came close to win the nomination. The last person to actually be a mayor to become president, you have to go all the way back to Calvin Coolidge ...

DEAN: Oh, yes.

ENTEN: ... who was Northampton's mayor back in the 1910s, I think, Grover Cleveland from, of course, the great city of Buffalo. There've only been three mayors who went on to become president, and none of them were from New York City. If Andrew Cuomo's hoping this is a stepping stone, history says not going to happen for the boy from Queens, says this boy from the Bronx.

DEAN: Well - and yes, those are all black and white photos, so they do go back a while.

ENTEN: Yes, that tends to be a suggestion. Yes, tends to be a suggestion.

DEAN: All right. Well, yes, I can read data trends, too.

ENTEN: (INAUDIBLE) ...

DEAN: All right. Harry Enten, thanks so much.

ENTEN: You can take my job. See you.

DEAN: I'd be terrible, but thank you. All right, we'll be right back.

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[18:53:10]

DEAN: At least eight people have died after a hot air balloon accident in Brazil today. Video of that accident shows the balloon catching fire in the sky before deflating and falling to the ground. The governor confirming 21 people were on board, 13 of them survived. Today's accident is the second fatal balloon accident in that area in less than a week.

Last Sunday, a balloon carrying 35 people without authorization to fly fell in Sao Paulo. One person died. The pilot was arrested. CNN's Rafael Romo is joining us now.

This video, Rafael, is really horrifying. What more are you learning about this accident?

RAFAEL ROMO, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, very, very difficult to watch, Jessica. And this happened in southern Brazil in a coastal city called Praia Grande or Big Beach, a popular destination for hot air ballooning located in Santa Catarina State.

Before we go to the video, I was going to say that we need to warn our viewers that it is difficult to watch. This social media video obtained by CNN shows a hot air balloon catching fire while in the sky. The balloon then deflates and falls to the ground. An eyewitness told local media outlet, Jornal Razao, that he saw two people fall from above. And soon after, the basket broke and the balloon fell.

The eyewitness also said that she ran to see where the balloon fell and saw two survivors, a woman covered in mud and in a state of shock, and a man with her who was limping, as well as two bodies. According to Santa Catarina Governor Jorginho Mello, eight people died and 13 others survived the crash. Mello also said that the people of his state are in mourning and called what happened a tragedy.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, expressed solidarity with the families of the fatal victims and the survivors on his X account. The President said that he's making available whatever resources and support are necessary to help victims and local officials who are working on the rescue operation and care for the survivors.

[18:55:09]

And finally, Jessica, according to CNN - affiliate CNN Brazil, Saturday's incident was the third - number three involving a hot air balloon in the South American country in less than a week. Last Sunday, a balloon carrying 35 people, which was not authorized to fly, fell in Sao Paulo. One person died and the pilot was arrested.

Last Thursday, another balloon fell on the coast of Sao Paulo, although no serious damage was caused and no homes were hit. Jessica?

DEAN: All right. Rafael Romo with the latest. Thank you so much.

Right now, President Trump is meeting with his National Security team at the White House as tensions grow between Israel and Iran. And the President weighs whether the U.S. should get involved. You're in the CNN Newsroom.

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