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CNN's Breaking News Coverage on the Israel-Iran Ceasefire Backed by the United States. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired June 24, 2025 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

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UNKNOWN (voice-over): This is CNN Breaking News.

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT AND ANCHOR: Good morning and welcome to all of our viewers joining us from the United States and all around the world. I'm Polo Sandoval, in New York.

And just in to CNN, a statement in the past hour from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that Israel has in fact agreed to the proposal. It was initially announced by U.S. President Donald Trump for a ceasefire with Iran.

Now earlier, Israeli and Iranian media had reported that the ceasefire had started around midnight Eastern Time, but there is still a lot of confusion over the exact details. And all of this coming as at least five people were killed when an Iranian missile hit a residential building in the city of Be'er Sheva in Israel.

Now this happened before the ceasefire took effect. Video posted on social media showing the very moment of the impact.

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Now there are still more than a dozen other people that are being treated for light to monitor injuries. Firefighters rescued three people from the rubble and search teams are still trying to find any additional survivors.

And there were also first strikes in Iran overnight before the ceasefire was expected to take effect. Iranian state media reporting at least nine people were killed in the northwest part of the country. Israel also says that it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were ready to be fired.

CNN's Brian Todd standing by in Washington with the very latest on the reaction from the White House.

But first to Nada Bashir now in London. Nada, Israel has said that it has agreed to the terms, to President Trump's terms of the ceasefire. Do we have any idea what those actual terms are though? NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we haven't been given any of the

finer details around the actual terms of the ceasefire agreement. We certainly had been waiting for that official comment from either side. We've been hearing earlier in the morning from Iranian officials, including the Iranian foreign minister and state media reports acknowledging that Iran had accepted the ceasefire.

Now, as you mentioned, just in the last hour or so we have received this updated statement from the Israeli Prime Minister's office saying that they have agreed to the terms of the ceasefire. They say that Israel has been successful in eliminating what the Israeli Prime Minister's office has described as an existential and imminent threat, including Iran's nuclear threat, according to the Israeli prime minister's office, and ballistic missile threat.

And, of course, for over more than a week now we have seen Iran using those ballistic missiles to target Israeli territory in response to Israel's initial attack on Iran.

And we've also been hearing from the prime minister's office saying that while they have agreed to the ceasefire at this stage, the statement says that Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.

Now, on the Iranian side, what we've been hearing from the Foreign Minister in the early hours of this morning is that Iran would agree to the ceasefire and would not target Israeli territory so long as there are no further Israeli attacks on Iran past 4 a.m. this morning local time. And, of course, we are well past that. We haven't seen any further Israeli attacks at this stage.

But, of course, as you noted, overnight we have seen both sides exchanging missile strikes. In Iran we've seen at least nine people killed and 33 others injured as four residential blocks were targeted in Israeli strikes in northwest Iran. Similarly, in Israel we have seen now at least five people killed following an Iranian strike on the southern city of Be'er Sheva.

And we've seen the images coming out of that of a large explosion and the destruction around this particular area as well. At least 20 people, according to the emergency services there, are said to have been injured as well.

And those attacks really came up until the last moment, until that ceasefire came into effect. And we did hear from the Iranian Foreign Minister saying that Iran's military attacks on Israel had continued up until the very last minute.

Both sides clearly attempting to frame this as some sort of military success domestically for their own citizens. But, of course, we've also been hearing from the U.S. President as well calling for this ceasefire to be upheld and maintained by both sides. Polo?

SANDOVAL: Yes, this is quickly turning also into a war on framing this crisis. Nada, thank you. Let's go to Brian Todd now in Washington. Brian, where you are at the

White House, we heard from President Trump a few hours ago essentially asking both sides that they continue to stick to the terms of the ceasefire, that they not violate it.

[03:05:07]

Have we heard anything else from the White House thus far?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Not in the last hour, Polo. But, of course, with this White House, anything could come at any moment regarding this situation.

This hour we're getting very strong indications over just how critical the coming hours are going to be as President Trump makes his own appeal to both sides to stick to their end of this deal in the ceasefire.

As Polo and Nada have been going over those Iranian and Israeli strikes in the hours leading up to the ceasefire, we can tell you that President Trump has just posted a message on Truth Social saying this, quote, "The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it." And then he signs off Donald J. Trump, President of the United States.

Meanwhile, CNN does have new reporting on how we got here. Our colleagues, Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler, Alayna Treene, Jeff Zeleny, and Zachary Cohen are reporting that President Trump and his diplomatic and security teams worked furiously behind the scenes in the hours after Iran struck that U.S. air base in Qatar. They worked furiously behind the scenes in the hours after that to try to work out a ceasefire.

According to sources who spoke to CNN, the President himself communicated with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel. At the same time, his Vice President, J.D. Vance, his Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, Marco Rubio, and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, were communicating themselves with the Iranian side through back channel, indirect and direct talks there, according to a senior White House official. All of this in an effort to broker the ceasefire that President Trump now says is in effect.

We also have to say that the government of Qatar has been a critical intermediary in this process. President Trump, according to our sources, speaking himself directly to the Emir of Qatar, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani. So the President himself taking on those high-level diplomatic talks between himself and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and also speaking himself to the Emir of Qatar while his security team worked with the Iranian side.

Also this morning, we can tell you there is kind of a battle over the messaging over all of this, and specifically the messaging over who will get the credit for brokering this ceasefire.

Donald Trump, posting earlier this morning, or basically late Monday night on Truth Social, saying this, quote, "Israel and Iran came to me almost simultaneously and said peace. I knew the time was now. The world and the Middle East are the real winners. Both nations will see tremendous love, peace, and prosperity in their futures."

Donald Trump himself saying it was the Iranians and the Israelis who came to him. But there is, of course, a different kind of messaging coming from Tehran this morning. Iranian state media, a news anchor on state media saying this, quote, "in a begging-like manner of urging, Trump requested the initiation of a ceasefire in the imposed Zionist enemy war against our country."

Very different messages coming from Washington and Tehran over just who brokered the ceasefire. But, Polo, we can tell you the ceasefire has begun in earnest, according to both sides. It is now a matter of watching these critical hours ahead to see if it holds.

SANDOVAL: CNN's Brian Todd staying up late, following very closely every development. Brian, thank you so much for reporting, and our thanks to Nada Bashir as well.

Meanwhile, Iran's air defense is remaining active following Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement on Monday. CNN's Fred Pleitgen is in Tehran and actually filed this report earlier from the Iranian capital city.

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FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What we're seeing right now is extremely intense anti-aircraft fire over the skies of Tehran. If we look through here, you can see the tracer fire going up from those anti-aircraft guns. We've also heard some blasts, but as you can see right now, the skies over the Iranian capital absolutely illuminated with anti-aircraft fire.

Now, the Israelis have issued an evacuation order for the part of Tehran where we're seeing that anti-aircraft fire right now. It's unclear whether there's any strikes taking place, but we have also heard some thuds seemingly coming from that direction.

This comes after a day where we saw intense bombardment here of the Iranian capital, especially central areas of Tehran, right here in the location that we are. There was an airstrike very close to us that rocked the building that we were in. We took cover, then came back to film the aftermath, and there was a thick plume of smoke in the skies.

The Iranians also firing multiple missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, saying that that was in response for the United States attacking several Iranian nuclear installations. And there, again, you can see the fire in the skies over Tehran. That is that anti-aircraft burst fire coming from Iranian air defenses, and we've been seeing that happening over the past couple of minutes as clearly they are targeting something that is in the skies.

Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Tehran.

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[03:10:07] SANDOVAL: More of your headlines on the way, including more on the ceasefire that's now in effect between Israel and Iran, now three hours into that ceasefire. After each side fires off strikes ahead of that deadline, and a closer look at the latest global reaction to the tensions in the Middle East.

Plus, Washington and MAGA World remain divided over President Trump's actions in the Middle East as he touts the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. What lawmakers on Capitol Hill are saying, after the break.

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[03:15:02]

SANDOVAL: Welcome back.

We are now hearing from Israel about the ceasefire with Iran, which it says it agreed to after its, quote, "tremendous military success."

Now, earlier, the U.S. President, Donald Trump, said that the ceasefire is now in effect and urged Iran and Israel not to violate it. But ahead of that, both sides fired off missiles, including one that hit this residential building in the southern Israeli city of Be'er Sheva.

Israeli officials there say at least five people were killed and 20 injured. Iranian state media reporting at least nine people were killed when Israeli strikes hit a residential building in northwest Iran.

I want to get some more analysis now from Jasmine El Gamal, she's a former Middle East adviser to the Pentagon. She joins us now live from London. It's always good to have you, Jasmine, thanks for joining us.

JASMINE EL-GAMAL, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST AND FORMER PENTAGON MIDDLE EAST ADVISER: Good to be with you, Polo. Thank you.

SANDOVAL: So we have now heard from Israeli officials a couple of hours into the ceasefire. By all accounts, it seems that it is holding. We still, though, have not heard exactly what the parameters and the specifics are of this ceasefire.

Does that surprise you?

EL-GAMAL: It doesn't really surprise me because I don't think they know what the parameters are yet. I think step one was just to get both parties to stop firing at one another and to try to avert an all- out regional war, which for now seems to have happened. The news of the ceasefire is good news, but there are still a lot of questions about what comes next.

Exactly like you said, the parameters are going to tell us a lot about that future. And, of course, we can't forget the fact that even though Iran's military capabilities have been degraded, that their nuclear program has been set back, we don't really know how much. We don't really know what Iran is thinking right now in terms of how it's going to rebuild or whether it's really going to come back to the table in good faith.

And, of course, just looking around the region, Polo, and looking at other ceasefires that have been achieved over the last year and a half, we don't actually know if Israel is going to abide by that ceasefire, because certainly it's not abiding by it in Lebanon, and the Gaza ceasefires have been thwarted time and again.

So I think, again, it's great that there's a ceasefire. It's always good to stop the fighting. But what really happens next is still a big question mark.

SANDOVAL: And also a reminder that the ceasefire was never the ultimate objective. The original assignment, as I've heard it, is specifically to target Iran's nuclear capabilities. And as you know and as we've widely reported, we still do not know the extent of the impact from Saturday's hit from the U.S. military.

I want to get back to the what's next on two fronts that you mentioned a little while ago. You have Iran's nuclear program, the what's next there, what we could see, and then also when it comes to the regime.

They have been hit hard. They've had several of their top officials even killed in these strikes. Is the Iranian regime essentially circling the wagons right now and restrategizing what will come next?

(TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES)

Jasmine, I'm not sure if we still have you.

Yes, we may have just lost Jasmine El-Gamal. But as she just touched on right now, there are still so many questions, including what will happen to the Iranian nuclear program, and does this perhaps even incentivize them to pick up where they left off if they have anything to continue to work with.

So we'll see if we can get her back. But if not, we certainly thank her for her analysis.

Meanwhile, in the wake of Saturday's U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, protests, they are springing up around the globe.

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Yes, this was a scene alone near the U.S. embassy in London on Monday with demonstrators demanding de-escalation in the Israeli-Iran conflict.

And then you have some other scenes in Athens, where protesters, they're gathered outside the parliament building before marching to the U.S. embassy to condemn America's involvement.

And major cities across Pakistan also seeing organized rallies denouncing the U.S. airstrikes. By the way, protesters here, they are also criticizing the government's recent decision to nominate President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. And though a ceasefire is in place for now, some U.S. Senators, they

are moving to prevent President Trump from taking future actions against Iran unless specifically authorized to do so by Congress. CNN's Manu Raju has more details on that plan, as well as reactions from lawmakers on the President's actions in the Middle East.

[03:20:04]

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MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Even as Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, there is still a push for Congress to have a say if the president were to call for additional military action against Iran. In fact, there are two resolutions that are moving through the Senate and the House to try to constrain the president's powers, and actually say that Congress needs to be declaring an act of war against Iran if this situation were to escalate in the days and months ahead.

There's an effort to force a vote this week in the United States Senate. That effort was led by Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia. He has support from at least one Republican senator, that is Rand Paul of Kentucky, he was pushing this measure, but they need to have 51 votes in the Republican-led Senate in order for it to be adopted, and then it has to get approved in the United States House.

How it plays out in the House still is uncertain at this moment, and whether they could have enough votes to move ahead, especially in the aftermath of the President's announcement of this so-called ceasefire deal that he said was reached.

Now, despite all of this, this has exposed a divide within the GOP, particularly among some of Donald Trump's more MAGA-aligned supporters, people like Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who told me that she opposed Donald Trump's decision to call for those military strikes against those three nuclear facilities in Iran.

REP. MARJORIE TAYLOR-GREENE (R-GA): We promise no more foreign wars, no more regime change. They also voted for President Trump on those promises, and I've been very vocal. We don't belong in foreign wars.

And so many Americans are very wary when all of a sudden the news comes on and it starts saying why we're attacking a country.

When most Americans are walking around, they're not thinking about Iran. They're not worried about a Houthi, and they don't even know what a Houthi looks like. They're not worried about what Russia is doing.

They're very much focused on their American life and their American problems, and that's exactly what they should be focused on.

RAJU: Now, despite Greene's concerns, Republican leaders are by and large falling in line behind Trump on this issue, which is why we don't expect this resolution to try to tie his hands on Iran to go very far. This all comes as the House and Senate are poised to have their own classified briefings on Tuesday about everything that happened over the last several days here and what the weeks and months ahead may look like and whether Iran still has any capability to build a nuclear weapon.

Manu Raju, CNN, Capitol Hill.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANDOVAL: Thanks to Manu Raju.

And fortunately we have been able to re-establish contact with Jasmine El-Gamal. Jasmine, thank you so much for your patience.

EL-GAMAL: No, my pleasure.

SANDOVAL: So I want to tap into your expertise as a former advisor to Pentagon officials here. Maybe you can provide us with some insight on what are those conversations that are happening among top military leaders, especially the last 48 hours.

So what are they talking about right now when it comes to further assessing the potential extent of the impact from Saturday's operation and also when it comes to the ceasefire that's now about 3.5 hours in?

EL-GAMAL: Right. Well, the Iranian response yesterday was almost certainly one of the options and one of the scenarios that Department of Defense officials and intelligence officials would have presented to the president in terms of what Iran might do after a U.S. strike on it.

This idea or this option of Iran striking in a very choreographed, very telegraphed way, mostly just to save face, to try to save some semblance of deterrence, that was one of the options on the table, and that would have been the best-case scenario. And that's what we saw last night.

So when we saw the Iranian missile attacks on Al Udeid base in Qatar yesterday, it was very clear that that was going to be an off-ramp into a potential ceasefire because no damage was done. The attack was choreographed, the Qataris were informed ahead of time, they had a chance to evacuate the base.

They intercepted all the missiles. And Iran very quickly talked about things like proportionality and the fact that the number of missiles locked at Qatar were the same number of U.S. missiles or attacks that were targeted against Iran. So that very quickly led to the ceasefire being able to be announced.

Now, what happens now, because I think before we got cut off, we were talking about and you were asking questions about the next steps.

Now, we know that Iran's nuclear program has been set back. We don't know just by how much, just how badly damaged it was. That's going to take some time to figure out.

And we know that the military ranks and the intelligence ranks of the Iranians have been severely decimated. Many of those top commanders are now dead. And that's also a huge setback to Iran.

[03:25:09]

But if we put ourselves in Iran's shoes right now and try to think of what it will be focusing on in the next few days, weeks, and months, I would say it's going to be focused on two things.

One is closing ranks and trying to recover from the deep intelligence failures that allowed the Israelis to know so much about its program. So we're going to see that secrecy increase and people, sort of the officials that are left, banding together and trying to root out any informants that might be there right now.

And, of course, the other thing is going to be trying to rebuild their deterrence capacity. We don't know what that's going to look like yet, but we do know that one of the biggest messages that came out of these last 12 days is that might is right.

That's the message that countries in the region and really around the world are going to be taking from this, is that you can't count on diplomacy, that even if you're in negotiations, it doesn't protect you from military action against your country. And so you better protect yourself and establish that deterrence so that that can't happen to you again.

SANDOVAL: And then finally, how will the Pentagon, moving forward after today's ceasefire, how does the Pentagon see Iran still as this adversary, but one that, based on what I just heard from you, essentially feels boxed in and even desperate to see what it will do next?

EL-GAMAL: That's right. I mean, they're going to be watching Iran's next steps very closely. They're going to be monitoring any sort of attempt by Iran to rebuild, to restructure its program, to try to rebuild the deterrence capacity of its proxies in Lebanon and elsewhere.

They're going to be watching very closely. And so I think Iran is going to be under a huge microscope moving forward.

And, of course, we can't discount what Israel is going to do next as well, because I mentioned before we got cut off that Israel hasn't abided by any of the ceasefires that it's signed over the last couple of years. So also trying to put ourselves in Prime Minister Netanyahu's shoes, wondering if he's going to think this is enough for now or if he has something else planned, it all remains to be seen.

So, of course, you know, bottom line, great news that the ceasefire has been enacted. You know, too many innocent lives were killed in the last 12 days. But I wouldn't just, I wouldn't celebrate just yet, because we really don't know what comes next.

SANDOVAL: And we still do not have, the U.S. government still does not have any eyes on the ground yet. They do not have a clear picture of the impact of Saturday's operation.

I always appreciate you taking time to share your expertise. Jasmine El-Gamal, thank you so much.

EL-GAMAL: Thanks so much for having me.

SANDOVAL: Of course, glad we could have you back on.

And still to come, Donald Trump preparing for today's NATO summit in the Netherlands after announcing the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Coming up, we're going to have more details on how that deal came together.

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[03:30:00]

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SANDOVAL: Welcome back to CNN's ongoing coverage -- breaking news coverage of the situation in the Middle East, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian media now saying that a ceasefire is now in effect.

President Donald Trump announcing the ceasefire just a few hours ago, a White House official now saying that the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel was, quote, "only made possible because of President Trump's strong leadership and perseverance for peace," end quote.

CNN's Jeff Zeleny in Washington with more details on how this ceasefire deal came together.

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JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF U.S. NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: President Trump's scheduled to leave the White House early Tuesday morning and head to the Netherlands for the NATO summit, armed with a freshly brokered ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel. At least that is the hope and prayer of this White House.

After an extraordinary day here on Monday, the President out of view for the entire day, talking throughout it on social media, but largely working the phones, we are told, working on this agreement. He, along with the Vice President, J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others in the Oval Office, as well as many in the Situation Room, but it was the key phone calls back-and-forth with the U.S. getting Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire.

But it was the Iranian side, of course, that was far more difficult. We are told the President, the U.S. President, spoke with the Emir of Qatar to try and help work on the Iranian side. And that did apparently work after military strikes on the Al Udeid Air Base outside of Doha, Qatar, the largest installation of American military forces.

So certainly some tense moments in the afternoon. But it turns out that was all part of what had to happen to reach this deal.

Now, of course, it is still very much a work in progress. There is no question about that. It's fragile in the words of one senior administration official.

But the question here is going forward, how long of a ceasefire will this be and what happened with the nuclear weapon program in Iran?

It was just on a Saturday evening that the American president announced to the world that those strikes had happened.

[03:35:05]

But, of course, still an open question how damaging they were. The President said it was obliteration.

Unclear if that is true. His Pentagon officials said severely damaged. But that is a question perhaps for another day.

There is no doubt that this potential peace deal that's been brokered after about a 12 day war would be monumental if it holds in one more extraordinary day with the President set to travel to the NATO summit and see his fellow leaders there on Tuesday.

Jeff Zeleny, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANDOVAL: And there is still days later plenty of uncertainty about the actual results of those U.S.-led airstrikes this past weekend and just exactly how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear sites, which is putting Republicans and Democrats in Washington at odds.

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J.D. VANCE, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: We know that they cannot build a nuclear weapon. Now, you asked about the highly enriched uranium --

BRETT BAIER, "SPECIAL REPORT" ANCHOR: No, like 900 pounds?

VANCE: But what we know, Brett, is that uranium is something that exists in very large supply. Our goal was to bury the uranium, and I do think the uranium is buried.

But our goal was to eliminate the enrichment and eliminate their ability to convert that enriched fuel into a nuclear weapon.

REP. MIKE QUIGLEY (D-IL): I knew when the President said it was obliterated, it is the hyperbole of the President on a typical basis that nothing is ever going to be maybe or halfway. It's going to be total. And that's just not the way these operations work.

They're never completely successful. Again, it's a difficult, mobile target.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANDOVAL: And also the specifics about that pretty remarkable operation, CNN's Tom Foreman walks us through a timeline of the U.S. strikes on Iran. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A minute past midnight in Missouri, a fleet of B-2 bombers takes off. A portion heads west as a decoy. But the rest --

GEN. DAN CAINE, U.S. JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF CHAIRMAN: The main strike package comprised of seven B-2 Spirit bombers, each with two crew members, proceeded quietly to the east with minimal communications.

FOREMAN (voice-over): Retired Air Force Lieutenant General Steve Basham flew such planes.

LT. GEN. STEVE BASHAM (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE: These pilots, they know their mission for the first maybe 17 hours is to do the best that they can to not be detected.

FOREMAN (voice-over): The stealth aircraft are refueled in flight repeatedly as they cross the Atlantic. Their mission dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer. The two pilot crews check every system and review their training of the coming attack, likely studied on detailed computer models.

They have food, restroom facilities, even a small space to stretch out. But --

BASHAM: I would venture to guess that these pilots had so much adrenaline that quite honestly none of them were able to sleep.

FOREMAN (voice-over): As the bombers streak into Iranian airspace, they are joined by more decoy planes and fighter jets suppressing any potential defense systems. And at 2:10 in the morning Iran time, the first bomber drops its pair of 30,000 pound massive ordnance penetrators. The first operational use of these weapons by the U.S.

BASHAM: And when that first bomb releases from the lead aircraft and then the subsequent six aircraft come in and drop their weapons, it is probably the greatest relief ever. You have a pretty good idea when the weapons hit the ground based upon what you're probably doing that they actually went into their target.

FOREMAN (voice-over): The bombers hit two nuclear sites. Two dozen Tomahawk missiles from a U.S. submarine slam into a third. It all takes less than a half hour with not one shot fired at the American planes.

CAINE: Iran's fighters did not fly. And it appears that Iran's surface-to-air missile systems did not see us. Throughout the mission, we retained the element of surprise.

FOREMAN (voice-over): U.S. intelligence officials are still assessing the full impact of the damage, even as the Pentagon claims success.

PETE HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: We devastated the Iranian nuclear program. FOREMAN (voice-over): While others with more than 125 U.S. aircraft

involved are marveling that such a large mission was pulled off in such secrecy against a foe that surely knew it was coming.

BASHAM: Amazing. Is that not remarkable?

FOREMAN: Simply put, this all went pretty much the way military leaders wanted it to. Now political leaders are watching the follow-up developments and hoping they will end well, too.

Tom Forman, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANDOVAL: I want to get you to some news that's just coming to CNN now. The Israeli military says that it has identified an incoming barrage of missiles from Iran into northern Israel.

[03:40:01]

Now this would be the first since the ceasefire was put in place about 3.5 hours ago. We're going to have much more on this developing situation as it becomes available.

Iranian state media reporting that the country is moving closer to suspending cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. In fact, on Monday, the Parliament's National Security Committee approved the outline of a bill that would take that action.

The Speaker of Iran's Parliament says that they are currently looking to suspend cooperation until the IAEA provides concrete guarantees regarding its, quote, "professional and unbiased conduct." The bill still needs to clear two more hurdles before becoming an actual law.

And earlier I did get a chance to speak to Arash Azizi. He's an Iranian author and also contributor for "The Atlantic." We discussed the turmoil within Iran's government and what some Iranians could be thinking about the future of the Ayatollah and the potential for regime change in their country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARASH AZIZI, IRANIAN AUTHOR, AND CONTRIBUTOR, "THE ATLANTIC": There are two groups of people, I would say generally, who don't want to get rid of him. There are those who want to take Iran into a direction where it would make serious concessions and make a lasting peace deal with the United States, and there are those who actually want the opposite. They want a more muscular Iranian policy.

They are maybe even thinking of building a nuclear weapon. Actually, at some point, both of them, none of them are very happy with Ayatollah Khamenei.

And by the way, where is he as we are speaking? After U.S. was attacked, you know, after this, all these important moments is supposed to be the Head of the State. He is hiding in a corner, he don't know where he is.

So you know this explains why Tehran has been full of plots about wanting to get rid of him. And, you know, I wrote about one of them after I could kind of speak to a couple of people involved in it.

SANDOVAL: And based on your conversations with some of those people, do you feel that the U.S. intervention, for example, on Saturday, that could even further threaten the future of the Ayatollah?

AZIZI: I think it did, because the very fact of Iran being attacked by the United States added another negative point to Khamenei's track record. Since last year, Iran has been attacked by three nuclear-armed countries, Pakistan, Israel, and the United States. It's quite something.

And I think he's accused of being on one side; he's very rigid, but on one side he's actually quite cautious. I would say to the point of cowardly, if you look at it. He doesn't usually respond to attacks.

So, you know, Iran is going toward a very tough period. How it would now respond to these new post-ceasefire conditions are important.

A lot of people in Iran are worried that, you know, the regime would now go after repressing them, that, you know, it would sort of unleash on them after this war, trying to find an Israeli spy after every, you know, in every corner, although, you know, if it wanted to be rational, actually the reason where Israel could have such, you know, extensive intelligence penetration of Iran was precisely the fact that the security forces were going, you know, not after sort of proper security measures, but after everybody they didn't like effectively, every dissident, every single, every woman who they didn't like, and arresting them.

So these are some of the domestic worries in Iran. But at the highest level of the Iranian security, political, and financial establishment, there's a lot of conversations about Iran after Khamenei.

He's 86 years old, so he was expected to pass away at some point at any rate. But his position has been much more weakened now, so I think it's not impossible that he would be sidelined.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANDOVAL: Let's get you to the latest on another conflict now. In Gaza, health officials say at least 21 people were killed by Israeli fire while waiting for food at an aid distribution site.

Now, a warning, the video we're about to show you is graphic.

It's a reality on the ground. This is video appearing to show the aftermath of the incident that took place at a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution center. CNN has reached out to the IDF for comment on what happened.

The GHF aid program, backed by Israel and the U.S., has been mired by controversy, really a lot of controversy, since it started operating last month.

In fact, earlier this month, a CNN investigation pointed to the Israeli military opening fire on crowds of Palestinians as they made their way to a GHF aid site in Rafah.

And if Iran decides to retaliate further against the U.S., conventional attacks are far less likely. Still ahead, we're going to look at some of the so-called unconventional tactics at Iran's disposal in what experts call asymmetric warfare. We'll be right back.

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SANDOVAL: Welcome back to "CNN Newsroom." I'm Polo Sandoval, in New York. Let's check in now on today's top stories.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian media saying that a ceasefire is now in effect. But earlier today, an Iranian missile strike on the southern Israeli, on an Israeli city, killed at least five people. Authorities say the residential building took a direct hit, rescue crews pulled at least three survivors from the rubble.

And Donald Trump is also confirming the ceasefire between Iran and Israel has begun. Earlier, he took to social media to urge both sides to not violate it.

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So far, it appears to be holding, the U.S. President claimed that the countries had reached out to him, in his words, almost simultaneously about peace.

And President Trump will be in the Netherlands today for the NATO summit in The Hague, which will be getting underway soon. The alliance planning to discuss the tensions in the Middle East, as well as the conflict with Ukraine, which faced a new wave of Russian air assaults on Monday.

Well back to our top story.

You know, even if missile silos fall silent, experts warning that Iran could go after the U.S. using asymmetric warfare, which is unconventional tactics, in retaliation for the strikes on its nuclear facilities this past weekend. And this can take many different forms. You have the possibility of cyberattacks by so-called hacktivists against local municipalities.

The goal there would be disrupting local services and infrastructure, or even nuclear power stations. Iran-backed proxy militias across the region could also possibly target U.S. military installations or threaten ships from passing through that vital Strait of Hormuz, in which nearly a quarter of the world's oil supply passes through. And of course, the possibility of terror attacks. In fact, just this

week, the Department of Homeland Security in the U.S. issued a new warning about extremists already in the United States potentially acting on their own, committing acts of violence.

I want to get more now from Burcu Ozcelik, she's a senior fellow specializing in Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute. She joins us live now from London. Burcu, thank you so much for taking the time.

BURCU ORZCELIK, SR. RESEARCH FELLOW FOR MIDDLE EAST SECURITY, ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE: Thank you for having me.

SANDOVAL: So we just broke down what we've heard from U.S. officials from the Department of Homeland Security as they lay out all these different potential scenarios. Of course, we have to underscore that we heard from the DHS Secretary just yesterday saying that there is currently no credible existing threat. But they certainly laid out a laundry list of potential scenarios here.

So in your view, just how serious is the threat of retaliation on U.S. soil?

ORZCELIK: Well, I think where we are this morning is a moment of relief given the news of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. But this does not mean necessarily that we are out of the woods yet in terms of the range of threats that the United States or Europe could be facing if things go south again in terms of a deterioration of relations between Israel and Iran.

We don't yet know fully. We don't have a full picture of what the terms of the ceasefire agreement are. This has been called a bilateral ceasefire agreement.

But one question, for example, is to what extent will Iran-linked proxy or paramilitary groups in the Middle East be bound by the terms of the ceasefire? So would they be motivated to act unilaterally against U.S. or European interests overseas in defense of Iranian interests? Or will they now be curtailed, constrained because a ceasefire is in effect?

And the priority will be seen as maintaining Iran's regional posture and maximizing any gains that it may hope to extract from the ceasefire process and any future talks on the Iranian nuclear program.

SANDOVAL: All right. We really do appreciate -- Burcu Ozcelik, thank you so much for all your insight as always. I really appreciate your time.

All right, CNN's Anna Stewart is more on the significance of the Strait of Hormuz. Take a listen.

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ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This is the narrow body of water on Iran's southern coast, the Strait of Hormuz. It's just 21 miles across at its narrowest point, and it plays a huge role when it comes to global energy access. One of the world's biggest oil producers is Saudi Arabia, and it exports most of its oil through this narrow body of water.

According to J.P. Morgan, if we look at Iraq, about 85 percent of its oil exports travel through here. And then you have Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. For them, they're entirely reliant on the Strait.

So actually, in total, if we look at it, about a quarter of the world's oil passes through the Strait, about a quarter of liquefied natural gas as well.

Here we can see some of the oil price spikes of the last 10 years. This one's very noticeable, this is the invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices were around $120.

You can see the pandemic, this is where oil prices actually crashed and the big rebound in 2021, 2022. Now, this one's harder to see, but it's really relevant for now.

This is 2019, key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked. Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility, but the U.S. said it thought Iran was behind it. And oil prices here actually surged by 20 percent.

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So if the current conflict escalates in the region, this is what we could be looking at. Attacks in or near the Strait could lead to some tankers being unable or unwilling to make that transit. Iran could also simply close the Strait to antagonize Gulf States.

One reason not to is it would also upset its biggest customer, which is actually China by a long way when it comes to oil. It may not want to do that.

Other key customers when we're looking at these Gulf States are also in Asia. We have India, we have Japan, we have South Korea.

So essentially, this narrow body of water could impact the Gulf producers, the Asian customers that could raise oil prices around the world. And that could bring domino effects, possibly stoking inflation and reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts for central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Anna Stewart, CNN, London.

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SANDOVAL: CNN's Anna Stewart reporting from London.

We want to thank you for joining us. I'm Polo Sandoval, in New York. "CNN Newsroom" continues with Becky Anderson live from Abu Dhabi after a short break.

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