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Northeast Faces Crippling Snowstorm; Armed Man Killed After Unlawfully Entering Mar-a-Lago; Cartel Leader Killed In Mexican Military Operation; Supreme Court Tariffs Ruling A Gift For GOP?; Russia's War On Ukraine Continues; Any Sign Of Tariff Refund Checks? Aired 5-6p ET

Aired February 22, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[17:00:00]

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UNKNOWN (voice-over): This is "CNN Breaking News."

JESSICA DEAN, CNN HOST: You're in the "CNN Newsroom." Hi, everyone. I'm Jessica Dean here in New York. We do begin tonight with what is shaping up to be a crippling snowstorm here in New York and throughout much of the Northeastern U.S. The blizzard is expected to bring one to two feet of snow to New York, Philadelphia, and Boston. And tonight, non-emergency traffic will be banned in New York beginning at nine Eastern. Connecticut has banned commercial traffic on its highways and New Jersey has suspended bus and light rail service. More than 7,000 flights so far have been cancelled or delayed.

Let's bring in CNN correspondent Gloria Pazmino here in New York. Gloria, we can see the snow there behind you. We also know New York City schools will be closed tomorrow. This is obviously the second major storm in just about four weeks. But this one, if it all goes the way they say it will, is going to be quite historic, it sounds.

GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jessica, there is a potential that this is going to be indeed a big one. And the cancellation of school on Monday is significant because for the past several years when we've had weather events, it's usually been remote learning. In fact, Mayor Zohran Mamdani got some criticism just a few weeks ago when we had the last snowstorm for making kids do remote learning instead of a full-blown snow day. So, on Monday, city schools will be closed and kids will have a good old-fashioned snow day. It's the first time the city is doing that since 2019.

Now, I want tell you, Jessica, I've been here for several hours since early this afternoon and we are finally seeing the snow start to stick. It's very windy, blowing in all different directions, and the temperature, of course, is starting to drop now that the sun is starting to come down. So, I expect that conditions are going to deteriorate significantly in the next few hours. And tonight, the mayor instituting a travel ban starting at nine o'clock. That means that city streets will be closed to traffic, the highways, the bridges. That is in an effort to keep New Yorkers off the roads. There will be some exemptions for public safety for essential workers, but the mayor really asking New Yorkers to stay home as much as possible today into tomorrow. The travel ban will lift at noon and then the cleanup will start. Now, not a whole lot stops New Yorkers from getting out there, but I spoke to a few who are just a little bit over the snow. Take a listen.

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UNKNOWN: I am so ready to be done. It's not even funny. You know, with our first snowstorm that happened a few weeks ago, my flight to Mexico got completely cancelled. So, I've had enough.

PAZMINO: Yes.

UNKNOWN: You know, now that they're labeling this as like a true blizzard --

PAZMINO: Yes.

UNKNOWN: I don't even know what to expect of this.

PAZMINO: Yes.

UNKNOWN: I'm just headed to the gym. I'm not thinking about the cold too much.

PAZMINO: OK.

UNKNOWN: I love the snow, too.

PAZMINO: OK.

UNKNOWN: So, beautiful to be outside today.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAZMINO: Now, Jessica, as soon as we see two inches of accumulation on the ground, the city's snow plows will be out in force, thousands of snow plows. Twenty-six hundred sanitation workers working 12-hour shifts from now until tomorrow and certainly after tomorrow when much of the city will be dealing with the cleanup. Jessica?

DEAN: All right. More to come from Gloria there in Central Park. Thank you so much for that. Secret Service agents and Palm Beach County law enforcement shot and killed an armed man they say unlawfully entered the secure perimeter at President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort this morning. Authorities say a white man in his early 20s entered the property carrying a shotgun and fuel can. That's when he was confronted by Secret Service agents.

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RIC BRADSHAW, SHERIFF, PALM BEACH COUNTY, FLORIDA: He was ordered to drop those two pieces of equipment that he had with him at which time he put down the gas can, raised the shotgun to a shooting position. At that point in time, the deputy and the two Secret Service agents fired their weapons and neutralized the threat. He is deceased at the scene. (END VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: CNN law enforcement analyst Jonathan Wackrow is joining us now. Jonathan, thanks for being here with us. You know the Secret Service quite well in and out. What are your thoughts about how this situation was handled and what do you think just generally about how this all happened?

[17:05:00]

JONATHAN WACKROW, CNN LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST, FORMER SECRET SERVICE AGENT: Well, Jessica, good evening. And I think I'd categorize this incident as really underscoring the dangerous operational reality that the Secret Service and their law enforcement partners face when it comes to protection.

Remember, this isn't the first time we've seen an attack against the president or the president's interests. And when you have an individual who either breaches or circumvents a security protocol, in this case, the perimeter, while armed with a shotgun and what was presumed to be a gas can and is failing to respond to verbal commands, those agents and officers must immediately treat that person as a threat. And it's in these moments that these agents are trained as I was when I was a special agent to act decisively to stop that threat. And in this case, acting decisively meant applying the use of deadly force.

What we don't know from all of these, though, is what was this motivation. We knew what happened in the moment, how quickly this escalated, but what we don't know is what was the motivation in the intent of this 21-year-old individual to show up at Mar-a-Lago in the middle of the night, whether or not he knew the president was there or not.

DEAN: Yes, with this -- allegedly with this gun and this this fuel tank and this fuel can as well. You and I have been on the air over the last several years when there have been multiple attempts on President Trump's life. Obviously, Secret Service stepping up protocols following that assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania back in 2024. There was another one surely thereafter. Walk us through their thinking around how that and those moments impact reaction now here in 2026 even when, as you mentioned, the president not there at the property this weekend.

WACKROW: Exactly. So, what they have to do is the FBI is going to be leading this investigation. They have the primary investigative responsibility here to conduct the criminal investigation and the threat investigation. You'll also have a parallel investigation by the Secret Service, really in the context of, you know, protective intelligence.

And what they're going to be looking for, Jessica, is what happened prior to this shooting, the actions that you took beforehand, was this individual acting alone, how did they get from their home in North Carolina down to the Palm Beach County area, where did they acquire this weapon. All of this is going to start to, you know, paint a description of this individual, hopefully to try to get the motivation and intent here.

And again, link it back to, is there any connective investigative threads to, you know, previous attacks against the president? Again, we're now seeing in the course of 24 months three significant issues, you know, facing either the then former president or now the president involving armed individuals showing up at, you know, his properties or events, you know, to try to cause harm.

So, this is a big concern for the Secret Service. It's a protective intelligence matter and it's also a threat matter that's being -- a threat investigation that's being run by the FBI. But again, they have to get to the bottom of this very quickly because we don't know what other types of threats may manifest or present themselves in the near future.

DEAN: Right. And then you have to, if you can walk us through, what the logistics are of protecting a place like Mar-a-Lago. It's a private club but, obviously, it is where the president spends a lot of time. Secret Service is used to, of course, traveling with the president. But you noticed that when we were talking about this in the beginning, it was Palm Beach County and Secret Service together. What are those dynamics like? What is it like protecting something like that as opposed to when he's at the White House?

WACKROW: Yes, that's a great question. You know, it must be understood that Secret Service has a statutory authority to protect not only the president, but secure any temporary residence or sites that may be visited by the president. So, Mar-a-Lago functions as the president's primary residence when he's away from the White House, which means that the Secret Service now, as he is a sitting president, is maintaining this persistent security footprint.

But they're not doing it alone. They're doing it with a myriad of federal and local law enforcement partners to develop a comprehensive but agile security plan. What I mean by that is we know that the president is not there all the time. So, we're not securing Mar-a-Lago as we would the White House on a 24-7 basis. Why? Because when the president is not there, that property functions as a social club where private members can come in with their guests and, you know, use the facilities. That's a real different construct for the Secret Service. That is not what is in place at the White House. So, what do you need to do?

[17:09:50]

You need to be able to adjust your, you know, security protocols to allow those members to come in and out when the president is not there, but you have to maintain your core protective methodologies around protecting that site, ensuring that should the president come at any moment in time, you can scale your protection up and ensure that that location is secure for his arrival.

So, it's a very unique protective structure, one that was, you know, really battle-hardened during the first administration and has been enhanced significantly as the president is progressing through his second term. DEAN: Certainly. All right, Jonathan Wackrow, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

WACKROW: Thanks, Jessica.

DEAN: A Mexican government official reporting the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation drug cartel was killed today during an operation led by Mexico's military. And now, we're learning, a U.S. defense official has told CNN, it played -- quote -- "a role" in this operation. The cartel boss, who goes by the nickname El Mencho, was widely regarded as one of the country's most violent criminals. He was also wanted here in the United States. The Justice Department did have a $15 million reward out for information leading to his arrest.

Now, the military operation that killed him triggered a wave of violence across that state. The governor there saying suspected gang members set buses on fire, blocked roads in the area, and clashed with authorities. We know the U.S. embassy in Mexico has issued a shelter- in-place order to all U.S. citizens in areas where those security operations are taking place.

I want to bring in CNN's Veleria Leon, who is joining us now from Mexico City. What more can you tell us in this breaking news that we're getting that the U.S. played some sort of role in this?

VALERIA LEON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jessica, Mexican authorities confirmed the detention of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, in a joint operation carried out with U.S. support after months of intelligence coordination. According to official sources, he died while being transported to Mexico City.

Soon after the operation, violence broke out in several parts of the country. Armed groups blocked major highways, forced drivers out of their vehicles, and set trucks and buses on fire, deliberately using them to shut down roads and paralyze entire cities. We're talking about five Mexican states that have reported this kind of violence. And authorities reported blockades in Jalisco, Michoacan, Guanajuato, Veracruz, and Chiapas. And as precaution, classes were canceled in at least three states tomorrow while security forces work to restore order and prevent civilians from being caught in the arrest.

El Mencho was not simply a regional criminal leader. He was the founder and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and one of the most powerful and violent criminal organizations operating not just in Mexico but worldwide. And under his leadership, the group expanded rapidly, challenging rival cartels for control of territory and trafficking routes, and becoming known for its use of military-grade weapons and also drones and highly visible displays of force. Jessica, for years, he managed to avoid capture. And now, he was captured. And after that, he died in his route to Mexico City. Jess?

DEAN: All right, Valeria Leon with the very latest from Mexico City, thank you so much for your reporting. Still ahead here on "CNN Newsroom," President Trump preparing to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term as new polling numbers show Americans are not pleased right now. Plus, some pundits calling the Supreme Court ruling against the president's tariffs a gift for Republicans. Rahm Emanuel joins us next for his take on the legal blow to the president's economic policy.

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DEAN: On Tuesday, President Trump will stand before Congress to deliver his State of the Union address set against a backdrop of a partial government shutdown, a rare rebuke from the Supreme Court, and just ahead of the first primaries of this year's midterms.

As President Trump doubles down on his tariff strategy, new polling shows a majority of Americans disapprove of how he's handling inflation, tariffs, and U.S. relations with other countries. The ABC News Washington Post poll was taken shortly before the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's sweeping tariffs were illegal. You see the numbers there.

We're joined now by CNN senior and political global affairs analyst, Rahm Emanuel. He has held a number of senior government roles, including U.S. ambassador to Japan and mayor of Chicago. So good to have you here tonight. We just laid out the backdrop for Tuesday when the president is going to stand before Congress, his cabinet, in theory, the Supreme Court justices as well, although he has been publicly bashing them, and deliver a State of the Union address. And he's going to try to make the case that things are going really well. How do you think that's going to go?

RAHM EMANUEL, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR, FORMER CHICAGO MAYOR: Well, I think he has a big task ahead of him. One is everything was on kind of cruise control going into Tuesday. Now, they have to rewrite the whole speech. Second of all, this is a political blow, the decision by the Supreme Court on Friday on the tariffs, because the tariffs are very unpopular. The president is underwater on the economy. And so, he's going to fight with all his energy for something the American people have already rejected, and he doesn't have high standing with them.

[17:20:01]

It is then also secondary a policy blow to his economic plank, a major one. But nonetheless, there's a way around that. Supreme Court gave him different routes, none of the routes he really chooses to take.

And then third, it diminishes his leverage on the international scene. He's going into a meeting at the end of the month of March with President Xi, and he really doesn't have the tools in that toolbox, and his leverage has fundamentally tilted against him on that scale. So, I see it from all those angles. And most importantly, this is a political hit.

I would say one side note, Jessica, that people haven't focused on. When the president walks down the aisle in the major part of the State of the Union, he can either go to his left, and there's the Supreme Court in the front row, or go to his right, which is where the cabinet and the joint chiefs of staff goes. Now, historically, the president always goes to the left, as you've seen in famous photos with Supreme Court Justice Roberts where the president thanks him.

My gut tells me he will not be going left. He's going to do something different and go totally right and try to show them that he's going to ignore them and what he really thinks of them by now walking by them.

DEAN: Yes. I mean, he has made no bones about it. This has been very, very personal, his attacks toward them since that ruling.

EMANUEL: Yes.

DEAN: And you make such an important point. It seems obvious, but I think it's worth remembering. Look, we are in February of a midterm year, and there's just a lot --

EMANUEL: Yes.

DEAN: -- of political ramifications around everything that's swirling right now, all the things you just laid out. I'm curious what your thought is about how the president may be looking at the fact that he's going to fight so hard to double down on these tariffs which, as you noted, are deeply unpopular with the American public, and those numbers bear it out, when so many of his Republican members are going have to be running for reelection in the fall to keep control and be able to pass his legislation.

EMANUEL: Well, the irony here is, look, every time they told the president, get back on the economy, go give a good speech just the other night in Georgia, etcetera, he wanders off. And anything he does, let's say in Georgia the other night, he says, I've solved affordability, that is not where the American people are emotionally, mentally or in their pocketbook, most importantly. So, Tuesday night is supposed to be the curtain raiser for here's our campaign, here's what we're going to run on, and here's our agenda going forward, not retrospective. He is not capable of pulling that off.

And second, all the game plans you had, everything you've done, just took a body blow right to the chin. Not a body blow, but a hit to the chin. And so, they have to re-scramble.

And the president of the United States, again, the last thing the Republicans on the Hill want to hear about is tariffs because they're deeply unpopular with their constituents. Yet they want to be respectful and loyal to the president. They have totally enabled him for the last year. And that is going to put them in this quandary between their constituents who don't like this and a sense of fidelity to the president. And that's going to put them in a horrible position in the State of the Union fighting for something they have no interest of being identified with.

They haven't taken back their authority, which they should, which is what the court said in Neil Gorsuch's column. They haven't taken back their authority. But they do not want to talk about this anymore, and that's all the president is going to talk about because he cares passionately about it. It is a vanity project for him.

DEAN: And then, zooming out even more, we have what could potentially happen in Iran. We're waiting for Iran to ostensibly come back with a proposal. But, in the meantime, we're seeing one of the largest military buildups in that area in a very, very long time. Do you think there's a diplomatic path forward out of this situation?

EMANUEL: Let me take -- dial back and then put forward. I think the president has failed in the most important thing where you have that much military and reputation at stake to articulate the why to the country and to the Iranians.

Now, second part is the Iranian uprising that occurs after the 12-day war between Israel and the United States on the final day against Iran was mainly because the Iranian government offered the Iranian people more of the same. And they were done with more of the same.

I think the president should be very clear to the Iranian leadership and most importantly to the audience of the Iranian people, not the leadership. You can have either further impoverishment or you can have the first day of improvement. You pick.

You want improvement? This is the price of improvement. This is what you got to do on nuclear. This is what you got to do on ballistics. This is what you got to do to arming Hezbollah and Hamas and all the Houthis in Yemen.

And if you choose to basically change course, we're going to give the people of Iran an improved economy and improved society integrated into the world economy. If you stay the course you're on, which is your commitment to nuclear armament, to regional disruption through terrorists and stateless organizations, this is going to be your impoverishment.

[17:25:06]

That is what gets the people of Iran upset. That is why they're protesting on campuses. That is why they're protesting at the funerals. It's because all the Iranian government is offering them is another 30 years of the same poverty and the same impoverishment and the same isolation that they have.

The president has never spoken to what will cause -- the Iranian government will not topple because of our bombs. The Iranian government will topple because the Iranian people are sick and tired of what they've had. Now, that said, I think the president has so much equipment there it's hard for him to hit pause on the button.

So, they're talking about it, as you've seen in the paper, kind of a mini strike to get it back to the table, although there's now scheduled negotiations on Thursday. But I am haunted by the fact, personally, that last time there were scheduled negotiations, the United States still went forward on the bombing. And so, that doesn't seem to hold this president like it would other presidents, that if you have negotiations, you let that string play out in that area.

DEAN: But do you support military action there?

EMANUEL: I mean, I think the president, and we've had this policy from Democrat and Republican presidents going back for four administrations, which is all options are on the table. If Iran continues to pursue a nuclear weapon, the option of military action is on the table. It is there. I think the president the United States, unfortunately, has had so much equipment. I don't see where the off- ramp is unless Iran does something that they haven't done yet in the negotiations. And so, military option from a reputational standpoint, given what we have there, is important.

On the other hand, it can be leveraged if you get a deal on the two things that I think are key. You can deal with somewhat the uranium enrichment. You can deal somewhat with abiding by international standards and also inspections. What you deal with the delivery, i.e. the ballistic missiles, and what you deal with being a regional disruptor both with Hezbollah, Hamas, they lost their footing in Syria, in Iraq as well, and then the Houthis in Yemen is fundamental to getting a different agreement, which the president pulled out of the 2015. That was the criticism of the 2015 agreement.

Those three components, if there's not progress, means all we've done is Groundhog Day, gone right back to where President Obama's agreement of 2015. And so, the military option is a tool, it is not the toolbox.

DEAN: Yes. It will be an interesting week. Rahm Emanuel, thanks for your time. We do appreciate it.

EMANUEL: Thank you very much.

DEAN: Good to have you. Coming up, we are tracking a major winter storm slamming the northeast, bringing blizzard warnings for millions of Americans. You are looking live right now at Philadelphia, one of the cities that will be hit and is already being hit with snow. We've got the forecast for you. That's next.

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DEAN: Here in New York, a state of emergency in the city's first blizzard warning in nine years as the northeast gets hit by another massive winter storm. This one is expected to bring one to two feet of snow to much of region tonight and tomorrow.

This is a live look here in New York City where a travel ban will take effect in just a few hours. Schools will be shut down for the first full snow day since 2019. Connecticut has banned commercial vehicle traffic starting now. And in New Jersey, bus and light rail service will be suspended within the hour.

The storm will extend from the mid-Atlantic to New England. It's going to cripple air and road travel in much of the northeast. That kind of goes without saying once you lay it all out there. Meteorologist Chris Warren tracking it all for us at the CNN Weather Center. Chris, who is going to see the brunt of this storm? And I think a lot of people want to know exactly what the timeframes are here.

CHRIS WARREN, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, it is going right now and it's going to increase in intensity overnight. In fact, this, Jessica, is the forecast satellite and it shows that explosive strengthening that will happen overnight and early tomorrow as this massive storm works up through the northeast.

And to put this into perspective for you, these orange areas here covering spots from Virginia to Maine, including all of Delaware, all of New Jersey, these are blizzard warnings, also all of Connecticut, all of Rhode Island. If these blizzard warnings were just in four counties in New Jersey, that would be a huge deal.

So, this is really next level borderline off the charts when it comes to what is expected with this. So, not just what could be a foot and a half to even two feet of snow in some locations, but also strong winds making it dangerous.

We've been watching the rain change over the snow. So, now, where it is? Changing over. That snow will just continue to add up, seeing more snow moving into Long Island, getting a little bit heavier. The darker purple colors show us a little bit heavier snow.

The European forecast model has been trending to heavier snow compared to what it was doing just a few days ago. A few days ago, we're saying this could be nothing, and it's gone the other way now. Now, up to a foot, even a foot and a half in some areas here.

Now, the forecast model that's been going much higher consistently has been the American model. And this one also, the GFS, is showing a foot to even, in some places, two feet of snow.

Now, exactly how this system develops through time and the little subtleties of it will play huge role in who gets how much snow. But with temperatures in the lower 30s with the forecast radar here, you can see there's that strengthening, this is tomorrow afternoon, still going. But with temperatures like this, Jessica, this is going to be heavy, wet snow, which can weigh down power lines and tree branches and lead to power outages.

DEAN: Yes. It is serious stuff when you lay it all out. And the northeast hasn't seen this much snow in years, if this all kind of bears out.

[17:35:03]

And I don't have to tell anyone that's living here in New York or even in D.C. where it's just -- we're just starting to get the snow melting from the last winter storm of this season.

WARREN: Yes. You know, this is going to be significant. And Jessica, I'll tell you why. If this happened in the middle of the week, in the middle of the day, this would end up being a huge deal, even bigger deal, and it is a big deal. So, I was trying to think of how this could get worse.

There's also going to be some coastal flooding, but not necessarily coinciding with high tide. When you look at the National Weather Service, what they're expecting with this, major red and purple extreme impact. So, this is going to be a high-impact event.

DEAN: All right. We will stay in close touch with you, Chris Warren. Thank you so much for that. And we will be right back.

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DEAN: Tonight, Ukraine is investigating what it calls a terrorist attack after a series of explosions rocked the city of Lviv overnight, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. We do want to warn you this video is difficult to watch.

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UNKNOWN: (INAUDIBLE).

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DEAN: Officials say homemade-explosives were planted in trash bins. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying several people have been detained, including a woman suspected of carrying out the attack on the instruction of a handler in Russia.

Overnight, more broadly, Ukraine experienced its biggest air attack in weeks. Zelenskyy saying Russia launched 50 missiles and nearly 300 drones in a widespread barrage targeting six different regions, including the capital of Kyiv. At least one person killed in those strikes.

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DEAN: This latest uptick in airstrikes comes as the war-torn country prepares to mark four years since Russia's full-scale invasion. According to new estimates published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, more than a million Russians and close to 600,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, wounded or are missing. Combined, that number is on track to reach two million by this spring.

I want to bring in CNN chief international correspondent Clarissa Ward who, of course, has been covering this war since its very beginning. She joins us now live from Kyiv. Clarissa, I do want to talk to you about the anniversary in just a moment. But, first, you are there in Kyiv, and we just went through the massive attack overnight. How are things looking tonight?

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Tonight, things feel calmer at the moment. But Jessica, as we have learned here, you never know. Things can happen at any moment. Last night's attacks were at about four in the morning.

I want to touch on what happened in those attacks in Lviv, though, because this is pretty unusual. We're learning from Ukrainian authorities that somebody called in a break-in at a store in the center of town. When the police arrived on the scene, a homemade- explosive device detonated. And then when a second team of police arrived on the scene, a second device exploded.

Ukrainian authorities are calling this terrorism. As you mentioned, they're saying that they have arrested a 33-year-old woman, who they believe was recruited online by a handler in Russia. We have seen several instances of this happening more and more often. And tragically, a 23-year-old policewoman was killed in this attack.

Here in Kyiv and in several regions across the country, a very heavy night, as I mentioned. Some of our colleagues actually could hear those explosions as they were happening. Fifty missiles, 300 drones, according to President Zelenskyy, launched at the same time. This is the largest attack in three weeks. They targeted, apparently, the energy infrastructure which, obviously, we have seen again and again, also the water supply and the railway.

And this has just been, Jessica, a brutal winter with these types of attacks happening regularly. And the results have really taken a huge toll on Ukraine, Jessica.

DEAN: And Clarissa, yes, you mentioned that they keep striking this energy infrastructure. You note that it has been a brutal winter. There's still more to come, of course. We're only in February. This is -- you've been there a number of times since this war began. And I'm curious, now that you're there, as we get closer to this four-year anniversary, what are your impressions and how does today compare to the last time you were there and even the beginning?

WARD: Well, I think the first thing that maybe you can even notice, if you look behind me, is how dark that skyline is. There are hundreds of buildings that are without power, that are without heat. Some of them will be for the rest of the winter. There have been constant power and heat outages. You see people doing their best to come up with innovative ways of dealing with this situation.

But the reality is that it has taken a massive toll. And I would have to say, honestly, that I have never seen morale as low in Ukraine as it is in this moment. You really have a sense that people are just reaching a breaking point.

You know, we spent the afternoon with a young single mother and her adorable three-year-old daughter. They are walking up and down 10 flights of stairs, sometimes every single day, because there's no power, and they obviously have to get in and out of their apartment. They are cooking by candlelight on a portable gas cooker, often just eating instant noodles or soups.

[17:45:03] And it has been brutally cold here, Jessica, the coldest winter in recent memory. And when you combine all of that and add to it the grind of just four years of this, it really does feel that people here have kind of reached the limits of what they can endure.

I spoke to one woman who said to me, if I never hear the word "resilience" again, it will be too soon, because I think there is a sense that the outside world has always said, Ukrainians are superhuman, they can do anything, they can withstand anything. And that strength may also turn out to be their biggest burden in the sense that people expect them to continue to endure without end, Jessica.

DEAN: Without end in these incredibly unimaginably difficult circumstances. And to that end, Clarissa, the state of negotiations, this continues to go on. And what you're getting at is just this idea that it may never end, this feeling of endless war. Where would you place the state of negotiations right now?

WARD: Well, I think there's sort of a realization around the country that this war has to end. And you're hearing people talk about things that once would have been a taboo, such as the possibility of having to concede some of the territory that Russia has seized during the last four years, and particularly in that Donbas region.

But what you've heard from President Zelenskyy is, we can't talk about making territorial concessions until we have security guarantees. And so, you are kind of looking at a chicken-egg situation, like will the U.S. agree to those security guarantees and sign off on them and will Congress sign off of them, which would then allow, according to President Zelenskyy, him to potentially talk about something like a frozen front line whereby Russia would effectively get to keep the gains that it has made on the battlefield.

But the White House seems to favor kind of the reverse approach, like put it all in one, do the deal, agree to the ceasefire, and we can then agree to those security guarantees.

People in Ukraine believe that Russia has no interest in ending this war. Certainly, President Putin has not shown that he is in a hurry to end it. But, at the same time, as I mentioned before, they are ready for this to be over. People have just reached the limit, Jessica.

DEAN: Yes. Clarissa, it's so great to have you. Thank you so much for your reporting on this. It's always wonderful to have your perspective. Thanks so much. Good to see you.

And coming up, Americans wondering about potential refund checks after the Supreme Court ruling striking down President Trump's tariffs. We're going to hear from the treasury secretary, what he had to say today. That's next.

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DEAN: More than $130 billion in potential tariff refunds hang in the balance after the Supreme Court ruled Friday President Trump's emergency tariffs are illegal.

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SCOTT BESSENT, UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY: The Supreme Court remanded it down to a lower court. And, you know, we will follow what they say, but that could be weeks or months when we hear them. So, the Supreme Court did not address refunds.

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DEAN: In the meantime, President Trump raising global tariffs to 15 percent, but the authority he's using lasts for only 150 days, and then he'll need congressional approval.

Let's bring in Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. Josh, thanks so much for being here with us. I first just want to get your thoughts on this 15 percent global tariff and what that might mean, you know, throughout the globe.

JOSH LIPSKY, SENIOR DIRECTOR, ATLANTIC COUNCIL'S GEOECONOMICS CENTER Thanks, Jessica. Good to be with you again. And I feel like it's deja vu all over again on tariffs. This is the most uncertainty we've had around tariffs since the weeks after Liberation Day.

And the 15 percent tariff, which in theory is supposed to go into effect tomorrow, that we should say we're still waiting on paperwork from the White House to see exactly when it's going to go on and which exemptions are around it, is causing confusion all around the world.

Just to give you an example, the European Union, France, Germany, others are asking. Are they getting a worse deal than what they thought they had agreed to? The U.K. had a deal at 10 percent. They're asking if tomorrow, they have a 15 percent import.

So, this is really destabilizing in a way we haven't seen in months. And it just goes to show that the trade wars are not over, tariffs are not behind us, and we're just entering a new chapter after the Supreme Court ruling of Friday.

DEAN: Yes. You mentioned some of the countries and what they're thinking. The Trump administration says it's launching investigations into various trading partners, starting with Brazil and China. What might this mean? Do you think these investigations are a pretext to further tariffs and a way to kind of get to that?

LIPSKY: I think the answer is yes. These investigations are a way to get to new tariffs. And basically, what the administration is trying to do is recreate the tariffs they lost in the aggregate. So, they can't get everything back that the Supreme Court struck down. They can't get this anytime, anywhere, any reason, authority. The president enjoyed so much under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. But they're trying to piece together through different authorities a way to do it. And Section 301 is one way. That's going to take them months.

So, this 15 percent global tariff is a bridge measure. And that means in the months to come, you're going to see new tariffs on specific countries. What's really important to understand about the 15 percent, as you said, it's global and the administration can't discriminate. It can't give 10 percent to one country, five to another, 15 to another.

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And you know that goes against the way President Trump likes to negotiate. So, this is the problem they're facing, and that's why you're going to see more tariffs, not fewer coming in the months ahead.

DEAN: And this whole idea of refunds, is that just pie in the sky stuff? I mean, obviously, the treasury secretary saying that this is going to be handled in the lower courts, as we know. But what is the chances of this actually happening?

LIPSKY: Well, I think some companies are going to get refunds. You know, the Supreme Court didn't say explicitly how this was going to work. But in the absence of them being particular about refunds happening or not, the assumption is that companies are entitled to refunds. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars paid under the IEPA authorities over the past year. The question is, will consumers see any of that money? And I think the answer there is no, just because the companies are going to get the refunds. They've already passed on some of the higher cost to consumers. And I have a feeling they're not going to discount that back in some way.

But there will be some kind of refunds. It will be complicated. There will be lawsuits. It will take a long time. But I think some of that money does come back or gets applied as a future credit, perhaps, to the new tariffs that are coming.

DEAN: Yes. But, again, for the businesses. All right, Josh Lipsky, good to see you. Thanks so much. We appreciate it.

LIPSKY: Thanks, Jessica.

DEAN: Still ahead on "CNN Newsroom," one of the world's most wanted drug cartel leaders is killed in a military operation in Mexico. And we're live from Mexico City with new details on this straight ahead.

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