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War With Iran. Aired 11p-12a ET

Aired March 01, 2026 - 23:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[23:00:33]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to our viewers joining us in the U.S. and from all around the world. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington.

As we enter day three of the US and Israel's war with Iran, perilous times in the region, things are developing very quickly throughout the Middle East. New explosions reported in Tehran in just the past several hours and the country is ordering evacuations from dozens of villages in Lebanon, where a new front in this conflict now appears to be opening.

In Israel, at least 10 people have been killed, more than 200 injured since Israel launched military operations against Iran. Nine of those fatalities took place near Jerusalem where a missile struck a bomb shelter on Sunday. Israeli forces are ramping up their attacks in Tehran and in Lebanon.

On Beirut, just hours ago, the IDF confirmed it had struck senior Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon's capital. The ceasefire there, certainly over. Iran, released this video of what it says were Revolutionary Guard drone tunnels storing weapons, which it says it then fired on US bases in the region.

On Sunday, President Trump told the New York Times that the conflict with Iran could last four to five weeks. His phrasing, it is the clearest indication yet of a possible timeframe from the President, but the White House has warned that the conflict could in fact last much longer, and the President is now saying it could cost more lives. As of now, we know that three US servicemembers were killed in Kuwait on Sunday. It marks the first US casualties since the launch of what the Trump administration is calling Operation Epic Fury.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, UNITED STATES PRESIDENT: Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends. That's the way it is, likely be more, but we'll do everything possible where that won't be the case. But America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against basically civilization.

(END VIDEO CLIP) SCIUTTO: There are new questions for the plan for the next step. Jonathan Karl of ABC News spoke to President Trump, and he is reporting that Trump told him, "The US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but those candidates were killed in the initial attack.

CNN's Ivan Watson joins us now live from Hong Kong. And, Ivan, over the last 24 hours, you've been monitoring as the ripples of this war have expanded. Where are we seeing strikes now in the last several hours?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Right. We're hearing about explosions in Kuwait, for example. And as you pointed out, Lebanon is now part of the expanding kind of front of this growing region war. I think it's, you know, we have confirmation now of the first US casualties in this conflict in the third day of this coming from the Trump administration.

At least three servicemembers killed with warnings that there are likely going to be more casualties. The Iranian government putting out this propaganda video that you showed before, I think it's worth looking at this because it demonstrates those Shahed drones which had been used to such devastating and deadly effect by the Russian military in Ukraine for years, this purportedly a tunnel full of these weapons.

Iran demonstrating that it's ready to go for the long haul in this conflict, even as much of its leadership has been decapitated, as President Trump has been signaling that this could go on for more than four weeks as well. There is a new reality in the Gulf, in those sparkling, shining cities like Dubai and Doha, and Abu Dhabi, and Manama in Bahrain, which have all been pummeled or targeted by hundreds and hundreds of drones and missiles over the course of the last 48 now more hours growing.

[23:05:03]

And a new reality setting in as those busy airline hubs that are headquarters to Qatar Air and Emirates Airlines, and Etihad Airlines, they're shut down with travelers stuck, with commercial shipping also slowing down dramatically with reports of attacks on cargo ships and oil tankers. And we're watching what's going to happen to oil prices around the world is that.

In addition to that, and I might note that Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani, who's the head of the National Security Council and seemingly the most senior official surviving in the Iranian government right now, or speaking for the government, he insists that Iran is not targeting anything beyond US bases in the region. I think that the governments in the Gulf would sharply disagree with that as they have seen drones striking high rise buildings and civilian airports from Kuwait to Dubai, to Abu Dhabi, to Bahrain.

The growing -- the new front that has just opened up in the last couple of hours is Lebanon, with the Iranian allied Shiite militia Hezbollah issuing announcement that in revenge for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Saturday, that Hezbollah was joining in the fray and declaring that at midnight the Sunday to Monday that Hezbollah targeted the Mishmar HaCarmel missile defense site belonging to the Israeli army south of, as it puts it, occupied Haifa with a barrage of precision advanced missiles and a swarm of drones.

The Israeli response quite swift. I've spoken to residents of Beirut describing hearing a succession of explosions at around 2:30 in the morning in Beirut around the southern suburbs and still trying to assess what happened there. Reports of the Lebanese government which had spoken out against getting involved in this conflict and condemning this move, holding emergency meetings, reports from residents of highways clogged and panic because this came as a surprise to residents, to people, to the population in Lebanon, that suddenly they're being pulled into this conflict.

The country still battered from previous rounds of fighting between Hezbollah and Lebanon. And I might add, in addition to what's happening there and Israel now declaring that 52 settlements across South Lebanon should evacuate, indicating that it may strike those areas. And it has been bombing parts of Lebanon for months almost on a daily basis in the south and in the Beqaa Valley.

We also have reports of a suspected drone strike targeting the British Air force Base in Cyprus. So here we have a European Union country, apparently only one indication of a strike, but also now being pulled into the growing consequences of this rapidly expanding conflict. Jim?

SCIUTTO: New fronts, I mean, that was exactly one of the concerns, right? That this would start small or relatively small. And then expand to bring in other countries does seem to be what we're witnessing right now. Ivan Watson in Hong Kong, thanks so much.

I do want to go now to Julie Benbrook, who comes to us live from the White House. And, Julie, these are confusing words to hear from the President as he's speaking to a number of reporters, offering seemingly different timelines, but also goals and also descriptions of the after plan. I mean, to tell Jonathan Karl that we had candidates picked out to succeed in Iranian leadership and then concede that they were killed in the initial phases of this strike, which of course the US is involved in.

I mean, does the White House have answer for why those strikes don't match with the after plan?

JULIA BENBROOK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A lot of this information is coming in a bit haphazardly. As President Donald Trump arrived back here at the White House tonight, I mean, reporters had a lot of questions for him and he did not answer any of them. In fact, he has not answered consistent public questions since the joint US-Israel attack against Iran.

And as we have seen this play out, he's been giving these updates on social media. We saw that eight minute video where he announced that these strikes had taken place and he encouraged people in Iran to try and seize control of their government after US military operations had concluded. Also in a post on social media, he announced that Iran's supreme leader, the ayatollah, had been killed. And then there are those various phone interviews that we have been referencing.

[23:10:00]

But most of them have been brief. There's not a lot of room for follow up in those. And in his most recent scripted prepared video that we saw him put out, he did say that this operation, Operation Epic Fury, would continue in full force until the objectives are achieved. But he stopped short of going into detail of exactly what that line is for him, what the specific objectives he's looking for.

And then there's the timelines. We've heard everything from two days to throughout the week, to that most recent interview with the New York Times where he said this could continue on for four to five weeks. And it's not just Trump that we have not been hearing from publicly, it's other top administration officials as well. That is expected to change tomorrow.

We are hearing that the Pentagon is going to offer a briefing at 8:00 AM that's going to include Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth as well as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine. And one area of questioning could focus in on some reporting from our colleagues that showed that Pentagon briefers who spoke with congressional staff acknowledged that Iran did not have specific plans to target US forces or bases unless Israel struck Iran first. And that contradicts some of the claims that we've seen from the administration thus far.

SCIUTTO: There's been more than one contradiction for sure. Julie Benbrook at the White House, thank you.

For more on next steps, I want to bring in Seth Jones, Director of the International Security Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies here in Washington. Seth, good to have you. Thanks so much for joining.

SETH JONES, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES-WASHINGTON: Thanks for having me on, Jim.

JONES: I want to drill down specifically one potential limiting factor for US military operations, and that is concern. And I've heard this from a number of lawmakers and others about stocks of US high precision weapons, specifically attack missiles, but also air defense missiles. Is there evidence that those stocks are, not just limited, but perhaps being depleted faster than expected, which would then put an end game right on how long the US could carry out these strikes.

JONES: Well, Jim, there are going to be some missiles and munitions like joint direct attack munitions or JDAMs, where the US probably has a pretty significant stockpile. Part of the concern has been the THAAD and PAC2, and PAC3 interceptors for the Patriot missile systems. Those are important in Europe, they're critical in the Pacific and they're likely to continue to be used in the Middle East now in the US Central Command area of responsibility. It's worth noting that in 2025, the US expended about a quarter of its THAAD munitions in the Iran war, both in the Gulf and in the in support of the two big salvos against Israel. So those stockpiles are low right now, it does raise questions about how low the US would potentially go if this war goes over, you know, a period of weeks, and whether it actually has to use stockpiles for other war plans or o- plans, operational plans, for China or Russia or North Korea, which means you're starting to take risk in other theaters.

SCIUTTO: And listen, we'd already heard concern from US military officials about the number of those missiles going, for instance, to Ukraine, concern about stockpiles and, of course, now the US dipping into those stockpiles with this military action. We know that Iran attempts, right, to get around or penetrate not just US missile defense, but also Israeli missile defense, by the way they attack and how they time those attacks and the numbers of missiles and drones that they throw at the system.

Is there evidence in the early days of this war that Iran has done a good job of that, right? Done a job of trying to, well, overwhelm as best they can, those air defenses?

JONES: Well, Jim, the Iranians have used some combinations of missiles, including ballistic missiles and drones and decoys, to conduct some attacks, but I think their success rate has been pretty limited. One of the things that we haven't seen yet is many of Iran's partner forces jump in a little bit with Hezbollah, which we just heard. But we haven't seen the Houthis, which could really create problems in and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. We haven't seen some of Iran's Iraq Shia militia conduct any kind of attacks.

[23:15:01]

They've got missile and drone capabilities as well. So it's a real interesting question about whether some of Iran's partner forces start launching and that does aid Iran here because it complicates the air defense and then targets for the US.

SCIUTTO: Yes. And bringing up the Houthi rebels in Yemen, particularly in the context of missile supplies, right, because the US expended enormous number of those air defense missions, munitions and others in that war. And against, I mean, this is part of the dynamic, is it not, extremely expensive US missiles against relatively cheap drones and other munitions.

JONES: Yes. And it's worth noting that the Houthis and the Iranians could do the same. Started going after commercial vessels, too. So this wasn't just targets in Israel. This is commercial, internationally-flagged vessels. And that means the US is going to, you know, in the past to try to keep commercial shipping open. So, right.

You're talking about a pretty significant trade off in cheap drones and very, in some cases very expensive US missiles.

SCIUTTO: Seth Jones, good to have you on tonight. Thanks so much for joining.

JONES: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: I want to bring in now Alex Plitsas. He's a CNN national security analyst, also Director of the Counterterrorism Program at the Atlanta Council and a military veteran himself. Alex, good to have you on tonight. Thanks so much.

ALEX PLITSAS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Jim, thanks so much for having me. So you heard us there talking about the US side and potential limits to the length. I mean, listen, US resources, as you know, in the region are significant. I don't want to -- certainly don't want to downplay those. But about potential limits there's.

Turning the lens towards Iran, do we have a sense in the early days of the war of to what degree US and Israeli attacks were able to diminish Iran's missile and drone capability, which was already, we should note, diminished from action in the Twelve-Day War last year. I mean, I know you're not looking at, you know, bomb damage assessments, you know, which are classified, but do you have a sense of how successful those early stages of the operations were in depleting Iran's capabilities?

PLITSAS: So they were among the first targets trying to suppress those. And I've been told that not only were they struck kinetically in terms of trying to blow them up, but there were also nonlethal means that were used potentially cyber, to help suppress some of the missile launch capabilities. So they may still retain some of the inventory. But in addition to the missiles, they've also been trying to target the launchers.

Israeli intelligence had told me that prior to the initiation of hostilities here in the last couple of days that the Iranians possessed about one third as many launchers as they had going into the Twelve-Day War. And that going into this there were an estimated somewhere between 2,000 to 3,000 medium range ballistic missiles and 6,000 to 8,000 short range ballistic missiles, really capable of wreaking havoc on the region.

And as you noted, it's been small volleys that they've been able to get out, but they have demonstrated the capacity to hit multiple countries in the region. So at this point it appears it's suppressed, but there isn't a really good count right now on numbers.

SCIUTTO: Yes. And listen, the advantage they have, right, is they only have to get a handful through, right, because the damage can be enormous and ripple out from there. A lot of questions, of course, as to how long the US military campaign will be -- how long can Iran maintain this kind of, in effect, multi front attack right now?

PLITSAS: I mean, to your point, the main means of deterrence that they would use to be able to continue to attack are the missiles. The proxies haven't all been brought in. Right now, Hezbollah is getting hammered is the phrase that was used to me with me by Israeli officials I spoke to a little earlier this evening. And so, that's the main actor that they were concerned about. Obviously, there's the potential for the Iraqi militias to get involved under the umbrella of what's now called the PMF. They've sat to the side and as the Houthis were just mentioned. So if those capabilities are unleashed a little bit, you're probably talking maybe weeks. But that also depends on the intensity of the strikes that don't seem to be letting up right now.

And there's a little bit of conflicting information coming in, as you were noting earlier. You know, some reports are saying that, you know, it could only be a couple more days worth of strikes, potentially a pause for negotiation, but then potentially protracted, you know, strikes continuing there afterwards if the Iranian officials, whoever happens to be left, doesn't want to negotiate.

SCIUTTO: Can I ask you a very practical question? What Iranian official would want to negotiate at this point? Right? I mean, if -- I mean, the price of being an Iranian official these days in the last several days certainly can be your life.

The President is acknowledging that some of the people they had identified as potentially folks they could talk to, talk with or work with, they killed in the initial stages of the operation. The Iranian foreign minister is saying that effectively the US and Israel were bombing the negotiations, is that right?

[23:20:06]

PLITSAS: So, I mean, the mediators have told me that it got to the point where they really felt that the Iranians were digging their heels from a US perspective. The Omanis have a very different one, and they thought they were closer to a deal, but it really came down to nuclear red lines in terms of being able to continue enriched uranium or give up the highly enriched uranium. So at that point, the President made a decision at that point that they weren't going to be able to move forward with negotiations.

And he decided that there's no other way to discuss it, that he was going to change the players in the game in order to do that, because he felt this had really been stuck for a long time. So now to your point, if all of those leaders were killed in those opening strikes, we do see some leaders from the original command structure still there. So most notably the foreign minister and then also the head of Security Council Larijani.

And neither one of those individuals is most likely to lead. We're also hearing that the IRGC may be acting to a certain extent independently. That's the portion of the military that reports directly the supreme leader. So the command structure is sort of fractured. Who -- not only who can you negotiate with but who actually speaks for the country, it can deal with that.

And it becomes, I think it's going to come down to this. The President has said, made it clear he wanted a quick, inexpensive, decisive strike, which we're not really seeing. The Iranians could attempt to drag this out. And if he doesn't see what he's looking for or it doesn't look like a protest movement would be able to sort of take over, does he cut a deal to bring this to the end and say he could achieve victory because, you know, he got the missiles, he was able to get the drones, potentially nuclear facilities. That's still unknown.

So I think it's going to continue to be unclear for the next 48 to 72 hours as we run through the remainder of the military targets. And so I think by midweek, we should have a better idea of where we stand. But to your point, this could go on for four weeks at this point.

SCIUTTO: Yes. And then the question who's running the country, who would be able to deliver on any commitments made in negotiations as well, given those questions? Alex Plitsas, thanks so much.

PLITSAS: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Well, another issue we've been watching, and that is the war's impact on oil markets. Also global stock markets, so far, it's been swift. Oil futures have surged in the initial trading since fighting began, as you see there, up just under 6 percent.

As for Wall Street, the US stock futures are in the red for the start of the trading week, but not down dramatically, at least at this point. In the Asia Pacific markets in negative territory right now as well. Of course, there is a lot to focus on, including the Strait of Hormuz. That is the major shipping route choke point, one might say, passing through the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman.

About one fifth of the world's oil passes through that strait, making it, well, potentially a choke point in times of war for global shipping. Within hours of the first strikes on Iran, Tehran warned that it would allow no more ships to pass through the Strait.

Another story we're following. A mass shooting in Texas has left two dozen dead and more than a dozen injured. Still to come, why officials are investigating if the recent strikes on Iran may have motivated the shooting suspect.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:25:15]

SCIUTTO: We've been talking about ripple effects of this war and another one of those ripples is affecting international air travel. Besides airspace restrictions now in place in the region, some key airports, in the UAE for instance, sustained damage in airstrikes. That includes Dubai, one of the world's busiest airports, where this video shows the chaos captured there on Sunday.

Emirates Airlines, whose hub is in Dubai, has now suspended all operations there until Monday. That is an enormous effect internationally. And look at that, well, that blank spot there on FlightAware, a live look at air travel.

You can see how airspace restrictions and closures are affecting the region there, the entire area over Tehran, but also extending over Jordan and Iraq as well. Across the US, officials are increasing law enforcement presence following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, most notably in the cities of New York and Los Angeles.

Officials say there have been no credible threats so far, but local and federal agencies are closely monitoring potential risks. Overseas, American officials are bracing for the possibility of suicide attacks in addition to, as you're seeing there, more military strikes by Iran. Sources say attackers when it comes to terrorism could potentially use car bombs, warning that Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Qatar are most at risk.

Now, officials in this country are investigating whether this war in Iran helped inspire a man to carry out a deadly mass shooting in Texas on Sunday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh my God.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: You hear the rapid gunfire there. At least two people were killed, more than a dozen injured in the early morning shooting in Austin, Texas Entertainment District. The 53-year-old suspect was the killed by police.

Sources tell CNN the suspect was wearing a shirt with the Iranian flag on it. During a press briefing, the FBI special agent in charge said there are indicators the suspect had "a potential nexus to terrorism." The suspect, originally from Senegal before he became a naturalized US citizen.

Joining us now, CNN's chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst, John Miller. And John, you know, were speaking last night about the possibility of potential terrorism, you know, whether tied to Iran or inspired by Iran. Is that what you think we're looking at here in Austin, Texas.

JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Well, Jim, as you know, there are three kind of modes of terrorism that we've seen in the post 911 world. One is directed, that means you're ordered by the terrorist organization, whether it's Al-Qaeda or Iran or Hezbollah to carry out a plot and you're working directly with them.

The other is inspired or enabled, which means you're in communications with them and they're giving you help with it. And then, the inspired version is you're a lone wolf. You're doing it on your own. In this case, authorities are looking at this as a possible lone wolf attack because this individual apparently does not appear in the FBI's holdings, based on the preliminary checks done at the beginning of this case.

But to quote the special agent in charge from the San Antonio Field Division, he said that there were things on his person and in his vehicle that they had to consider the potential of terrorism because they were indicators of terrorism. I believe that the hoodie he was wearing, Property of Allah, and then the t-shirt underneath it with the Iranian flag, given the timing of the attack, are some of the key indicators they're looking at.

SCIUTTO: OK. Let's talk about another category you mentioned there, and that is directed attacks. I was speaking to a lawmaker earlier tonight who discussed that possibility and concerns that Iran does have significant capabilities around the world. Can you describe how significant those capabilities are? And do they include the possibility, at least, of sleeper cells inside this country or elsewhere in the world that could be activated to carry out attacks?

MILLER: Well, they do, Jim, and we've seen this. You know, if you look at the plots against Masih Alinejad, an Iranian dissident living here in the United States, a complicated plot run by the MoI, the Ministry of Intelligence of Iran, using cutouts to kidnap her, put her on a boat and ship her to Venezuela, and then to Iran to renounce her statements and stand trial.

[23:30:17]

Multiple people charged in that case, some in custody, some still at large. You look at the plot to kill President Trump as a presidential candidate, this is another instance where the Ministry of Intelligence reached out to a criminal and tried to get him to put together with a number of people, surveillance and pre-operational steps to try and kill Trump on the idea that when he was elected, security would be too tight for them to do that.

So we've seen really bold activity on the ground in the US either from criminal groups that they hire as cutouts, Hezbollah operatives that they use as their surrogates and proxies, or even Iranian intelligence officers running these plots from afar. So the idea that they wouldn't have replaced some of those, that there wouldn't be hidden networks here is something that's probably unlikely.

SCIUTTO: Yes. It's an alarming set of circumstances, no question. John Miller, we appreciate you joining. Please do stay with us because we have much more news right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[23:36:10]

SCIUTTO: Well, there's now already a new front in this war. Israel says it is striking Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. The Israeli military says it struck, "several senior Hezbollah targets in Beirut just hours ago, one in southern Lebanon. Earlier, Hezbollah says it launched missiles and drones at an Israeli army base in, "revenge for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

US Central Command released a video on social media saying its strikes on Iran continue. See that one there on what appears to be a military jet. President Donald Trump says now that he expects the war with Iran to last some four to five weeks.

Satellite images are giving us a better look at the damage done to some military bases in Iran. These photos you're about to see here show structures hit in Kharanaq, Iran. The images show buildings reduced to rubble. The exact damage remains unknown. Targeted strikes throughout Iran are responsible for the deaths now of not just the country's supreme leader, but several other senior officials, defense minister, secretary of the defense counsel, the commander of the Iran Revolutionary Guards, and the chief of staff of the armed forces.

CNN's Katie Polglase has more details on exactly how the US and Israel carried out these strikes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KATIE POLGLASE, CNN INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER: With Iran very much still under attack, we've been using videos and satellite images like this one of the strike on the supreme leader's office to analyze how the senior leadership was dismantled by US and Israeli strikes and where exactly they've hit.

We now know from US and Israeli sources that the CIA, along with Israeli intelligence, had been tracking Iran's senior leadership for months. Then came intelligence about a perfect opportunity to strike in broad daylight when many of Iran's top officials would be in the same place at once.

And that place was here, the leadership house and the hub of Iran's power. It's also the office of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the now confirmed dead. It's in a very old traditional Tehran neighborhood surrounded by government offices, scientific institutions and museums.

Khameini was known to not leave this compound much. He was seen here in this video just last week addressing crowds at a mosque. The Israelis say they hit three sites on the compound simultaneously. We found several locations that have damage.

You can see a central building completely flattened. You can also see two craters here. This one appeared to have been targeting an underground structure, according to a former US special operations tactical advisor, Wes Bryant. Over here you can see crowds and emergency and construction vehicles.

But this wasn't the only location hit. The Intelligence Ministry headquarters was also up in smoke yesterday. And then, there's this strike right outside the house of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He has today been reported dead by some Iranian outlets. CNN has not been able to confirm his death. Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to the supreme leader, has also been reported dead by the Iranian authorities.

He narrowly escaped death last June when Israel struck his home in this precise targeting of a top floor apartment. Almost miraculously, he emerged from the rubble days later. This time he was not so lucky.

But others have been, the Iranian foreign minister here, Abbas Araghchi, was away in Geneva this week. The Oman Foreign Ministry posted this picture of him meeting his counterpart just four days ago. That trip may have saved his life. But Iran is very much still under attack. This IDF footage from Sunday morning shows a strike on the headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the notoriously brutal elite wing of Iran's military. What happens next remains to be seen, but Iran is aggressively fighting back, striking multiple US allies across the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates.

[23:40:10]

Fires visible here over Dubai's port area alongside Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Katie Polglase, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Joining me now, CNN's senior political and global affairs commentator Rahm Emanuel. Good to have you. Thanks for staying up late for us.

RAHM EMANUEL, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR: Hey, Jim. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: So as we watch these joint US and Israeli strikes continue, you've made the point that while the US and Israel have cooperated before in military action, that the scale of this war and how integrated the two are in carrying out this war, is unprecedented. Explain to us why and why that's important.

EMANUEL: There's been an ethos in the Israeli Defense Force for since Israel's existence that there would be no American blood ever spilled for Israel's security or fight in any one of Israel's wars. You've had covert operations like the Olympic Games that were cyber attacks on Iran's nuclear facility. But never before has Israel and the United States jointly operated militarily in an overt way.

In fact, go back to the Gulf War, Operation Desert Storm. Israel was told to stand down so it would not interrupt the American or disturb the American coalition that was built. This is totally different. And now we've lost three Americans and their families are going to have an empty seat at that dinner table.

And it's done in this, yes, there's a, you could argue, American security or strategic interest, but this is a new frontier. The genie will never go back in the bottle. And the repercussions, the aftershocks of this will be felt for many, many years to come.

SCIUTTO: Let's talk now about the US perspective and the US Objective crucially here, because going into this war, we heard a number of justifications. Initially, there was talk by the President of the State of the Union, as you remember, saying, that Israel was soon developing a missile that could strike the US. Since then, we've learned that intelligence assessments --

EMANUEL: You mean Iran?

SCIUTTO: Exactly.

EMANUEL: You meant Iran.

SCIUTTO: Iran. Iran to strike the US, apologies, but we've since learned that assessments do not show that to be true. We had been told that Iran was planning to strike the US preemptively. We've since learned that was not true.

And now this remarkable comment by Trump to ABC's Jonathan Karl to say that, yes, I had candidates in mind to lead Iran after the elimination of the supreme leader, but we killed those candidates in the initial round of the attack. Does -- was there any post game planning here, post war planning that's clear to you?

EMANUEL: No. I think it's very clear. First of all, let me back up. The damage to America's credibility is going to be severe. It happened in the Iraq war around the yellow cake. We gained it back with our intelligence about predicting when a lot of Europeans, including the Ukrainians did not believe us that we said that Putin would attack.

Now, not only the while the intelligence is very good, the credibility of America and the veracity of America's word is going to be severely damaged, undermined, given all that the things that the President said that have turned out within less than 24 hours. Absolutely not to be true and in fact own elements of his like in the Pentagon's briefings, just not true. That is going to be something that we're all going to have to earn back the trust and veracity when the President speaks.

The second thing I think take a step back, Jim. And the way I look at this, for about 30 years there's been two different Middle East, the prosperous, very successful, financially-integrated to the world economy, Gulf countries. Then you had the failed states led by Iran, of Syria, Lebanon, partly Iraq, Yemen, and these were all occupied somewhat by terrorist entities.

They the frontline defense in Lebanon, in Syria, destroyed, very damaged. Now, it's down to what you have in Iran. And unfortunately for Iranian people, the greatest export, Iran's head is the brain drain of young people who are very smart. 90 million Iranians leaving the country, the Gulf countries don't have a population like that.

It tells you that what's happened here and why that part of the Middle East is on its back heel. Now that said, had the United States president and President Trump kept the focus on nuclear capacity, ballistic missiles and then strategic kind of security apparatus, he'd have a broad support.

He took it to a level which is the political, which is regime change, which is totally not possible, not from 25,000ft in the air. And he's made something that America cannot achieve. We're 0 for 3 in the Middle East, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon in the early '80s. And he's made something that you can't do.

[23:45:02]

He could have had both, unity at home, a very focused operation, a military strike, not a war. And he's done something and raised the expectation that anybody that knows anything, a modicum of history and understanding knows is impossible. You cannot have a regime change from 25,000ft in the air.

SCIUTTO: It seems that President Trump has made a gamble that if this is short enough, and if the top of the Iranian regime at least is eliminated and the rest remains Venezuela model. And by the way, he said that in another interview today that, you know, the Venezuela model might work here, that despite the cost, etcetera, that the world will praise him here.

Is he wrong in that gamble? Do we know yet?

EMANUEL: Well, first of all, let me say this. The idea that you would say something like Caracas, Venezuela would be a model for what you're going to do in Iran is just on the face of it, absurd. Second of all, I do think one of the things that's been missed in the, I would say the reporting, but appreciation.

For 46 of the 47 years of theocracy of Iran, the IRGC was in supportive role to the mullahs. After the January war and the uprising in Iran and the killing of many, many brave Iranians --

SCIUTTO: Yes.

EMANUEL: -- the IRGC is running Iran and the mullahs are in the supporting role to the military. There has been, not literally but figuratively, a regime change. And the problem is, do they have control of the country? And it's so far it's proven not really because they did something incredibly stupid, which is the rest of the Gulf countries are sitting on the sideline, and they've attacked not our military entities, but those countries.

And they've pushed them into being advocates for what the United States is doing. And that has been a stupid move by the Iranians, who are obviously on their back heels here.

SCIUTTO: Rahm Emanuel, appreciate you walking us through it. Thanks for joining.

EMANUEL: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Well, we have been seeing celebrations, protests, even some deadly violence after the killing of Iran's supreme leader. After the break, we're going to bring you the global reaction to the ongoing and now expanding war with Iran.

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[23:51:48]

SCIUTTO: It's just in to CNN. Iran's top national security official, the top living one, says Iran will not negotiate with the United States. Ali Larijani was responding to reports suggesting that Iran had communicated to the US that it was ready to resume talks. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, he said that Iranian forces, "did not initiate the invasion and accused President Trump of plunging the region into chaos." Ali Larijani was a key adviser to the late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. From Canada to Asia to the Middle East, people across the globe are now taking to the streets after Israel and the US launched a war with Iran, as we mentioned, killing the country's supreme leader. Thousands of people in Yemen, Iraq, Seoul, Toronto protested the strikes. Many could be seen waving Iranian flags and carrying pictures of the late supreme leader.

In Pakistan, violence erupted on Sunday at the US Consulate in Karachi. Ten people were killed when protesters breached the facility's barriers.

Others are supporting the war, celebrating the invasion. In Istanbul, Iranian exiles handed out sweets and flowers while joyfully chanting against Iran's Islamic regime. In London, thousands marched through the streets waving American and Israeli flags. And in Rome, Iranian demonstrators came together waving pre-revolution Iranian flags, not the flags of the Islamic Republic, even dancing on the effigies of the now deceased supreme leader.

Joining me now is Amir Ahmadi Arian. He is an Iranian American writer and journalist. Thanks so much for joining.

AMIR AHMADI ARIAN, IRANIAN AMERICAN WRITER AND JOURNALIST: Thanks for having me.

SCIUTTO: You wrote for the New York Times, as we noted there just recently, with your own analysis as to what could happen next, entitled "The Outlook is Grim for a Freer Iran." Begin, if you can, with your best assessment, as you lay out in this piece, as to why the President's ambition of the Iranian people in effect, bringing this regime down themselves, whether that's a realistic ambition.

AHMADI ARIAN: Not as long as there's a war there. Just psychologically, when you're being bombed, the expectation that you come out to the street while bombs are falling from the sky and, you know, carry out some sort of a political movement or start something meaningful in terms of, you know, changing the political status quo, it's just unrealistic. In times of war, you know, your first instinct is to take shelter and, you know, be close to your family, try to provide food and water for them. You know, you just try to be safe.

So no politics, I don't think politics, you know, is a priority for anyone in a situation like that.

SCIUTTO: Well, they also have the quite recent experience of paying for protesting this regime in blood, thousands killed by this regime. And I wonder, what is your reaction to the President saying, in effect, go into the streets again and you could take this regime down? Do the Iranian people listen to that exhortation?

[23:55:23]

I mean, do they believe that the US would have their back? Because that had been President Trump's, I don't know, quite a promise. But he seemed to be hinting that the US would have those protesters back, and it didn't at the time, and they paid for it. Would they be likely to trust the US now?

AHMADI ARIAN: It really depends on how this war unfolds. Right now, from what I've seen through the last couple of days, they're striking every single police station in Tehran and many other big cities, just one by one, you know, neighborhood by neighborhood. And these are the, you know, the places, the locations where the oppression forces had gathered.

So it seems like, as you know, we have seen in the reports that the main objective for at least the stated objective for the US and Israel is to really eliminate the capacity of the regime in its entirety to, you know, execute any form of oppression or control on the society. They want to just completely remove, you know, look, the existing political and security system and create, basically, like an open space, a vacuum.

And the hope is that in that vacuum, you know, people rise up or somebody, someone new will take over and start forming a new political system. It sounds a little fantastical, but it's very different from January. You know, in January, you had an arm to teeth, very organized, and, you know, in command security forces who were willing to kill, you know, civilians and protesters. If at the end of this war, if that force is -- if that force collapses, you know, you don't know what happened.

SCIUTTO: Well, the other gambit that the President seems to be pursuing is this offer of general immunity to members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards if they lay down their arms and give up voluntarily. Given that organization is not just your average police force, right? I mean, it's messianic. I mean, you know, in theory, they're true believers.

Is that a realistic possibility that they give up and accept a US president's offer of immunity somehow?

AHMADI ARIAN: I don't think so. I mean, we have -- we saw that during the Twelve Day War too, there were calls made by Mossad and CIA to, you know, all kinds officials, you know, different ranks within the Revolutionary Guards, inviting them to defect and to, you know, take offers and come to the other side. None of that happened.

All these years, despite all the pressure on the regime, I haven't seen a single defection of a, you know, kind of high ranking, not that -- not even at the very top. Just high ranking, you know, security officer to the West. So -- and that's really key when we talk about regime change or the collapse of this regime.

As long as you don't have substantial defection both in number and in ranks among the security forces, that's -- that will be quite unlikely to happen.

SCIUTTO: Amir Ahmadi Arian, we appreciate you sharing your thoughts. Thanks for joining.

AHMADI ARIAN: Thanks for having me.

SCIUTTO: I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. I will be right back with more of our breaking news coverage right after this.

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