Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Heavy Explosions Reported in Several Parts of Tehran; U.S. Underestimated War's Impact on Strait of Hormuz; Attacks on Synagogue and University; Kerry: War With Iran Is "Very Dangerous"; Global Oil Markets Face Historic Levels Of Disruption; Iran Hears Purported First Message From New Supreme Leader. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired March 13, 2026 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[02:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNKNOWN (voice-over): This is "CNN Breaking News."

KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, welcome to all of you watching us around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber. Iranian state media report that heavy explosions rocked several parts of Tehran a short time ago. Some residents in the Iranian capital said they feel their houses shaking.

Now, as the war rages on, Iran is vowing to keep hitting U.S. and Israeli targets, restricting the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, and attacking Gulf energy sites for as long as it needs. Israeli authorities say a missile strike has wounded dozens of people and damaged buildings in Northern Israel. It happened after sirens sounded and the Israeli military said it had detected missiles fired from Iran.

We're also getting the first statement attributed to Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, read on Iranian state media. He warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as a -- quote -- "tool of pressure." Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNKNOWN (voice-over) (through translator): The level of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be used. Studies have been conducted on opening other fronts where the enemy has little experience and will be extremely vulnerable, and their activation will carry out if the war situation continues and based on the observance of interests.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: The war with Iran is triggering shockwaves through the global oil industry as the price prevail climbs, stocks fall, and major supply disruptions are expected.

Our team of reporters are covering all angles of the war. CNN's Ivan Watson is in Hong Kong, Bijan Hosseini is in Doha, and Mike Valerio is in Beijing. Ivan, I want to start with you and the latest on those strikes in Israel. What are you seeing?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Some kind of a missile hit a town in Northern Israel called Zarzir, which has a predominantly Arab Bedouin population in that town, but it struck four houses and wounded more than 50 people, among them a 17-year-old girl hit by glass. And it's not clear where that came from, that strike. Was it fired by the Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, or did it come all the way from Iran?

These enemies continue to strike each other. Israel says that it carried out bombing runs on some 200 targets that it says included ballistic missile launch facilities and other defense facilities in Iran. The Iranian government says that three Iranian Red Crescent workers who were stationed at a toll booth on the Tehran-Qom highway, that they were injured in one of those bombing runs.

So, this continues to claim civilian casualties on both sides of this conflict, Lebanon as well, which has been pounded, both Southern Beirut, Southern Lebanon, and Eastern Lebanon by Israeli airstrikes over the course of the past 24 hours. The death toll there continues to rise with at least 680 people killed thus far, less than two weeks of fighting, according to the Lebanese government.

And the militia Hezbollah continues to carry out strikes and claim responsibility for nearly two dozen strikes on Thursday and additional strikes in the predawn hours on Friday. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right. Ivan, let's turn to Iran itself. We've been hearing from Iran's new leader, sounding definitely defiant in the statement attributed to him. Take us through that.

WATSON: Yes, and that is, it's important to note, a statement. The first that we've heard, purportedly coming from Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former supreme leader who was killed in the first day of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and it was a statement that was read out on Iranian state television.

We have not seen Mojtaba Khamenei since he was appointed to this position. And there's some speculation about whether he could have been injured in the same strike that not only killed his father, but also killed his wife, mother, one of his children, and killed a number of other top Iranian military officials and political officials as well.

[02:05:04]

But he is absolutely defiant in this statement, vowing that he wants revenge, he wants compensation from the U.S. and Israel for the damage and the lives that have been lost, vowing to continue to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and that this is a war that will not end at this point. The Israeli prime minister responded to this. Take a listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL (through translator): We all hope for the toppling of this regime. But even if it doesn't happen, it will be much weaker. Hopefully, it will be overthrown, and then the problem will be solved. But anyhow, we're talking about a very different Iran, not as threatening as it used to be. It's not the same superpower. It's not this huge monster that nothing can be done to face it. We are acting together with others against them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WATSON: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went on to call Mojtaba Khamenei a -- quote -- "puppet of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who cannot show his face in public." They are a war of words between these leaders while a very real war is being conducted with deadly weapons that are flying hundreds of miles back and forth and claiming civilian lives even as they claim to be targeting defense infrastructure on both sides of this widening regional war. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right. Appreciate that. Let's turn now to Bijan. Iran still hitting other Gulf nations. You've been tracking that for us. What is the latest?

BIJAN HOSSEINI, CNN SENIOR PRODUCER: Yes, Kim. Well, as Ivan just mentioned, a defiant message from Iran's new supreme leader. He said that they would continue to attack U.S. bases here in the region if they weren't shut down. He also said, as you mentioned earlier in your intro, that they would continue targeting the Strait of Hormuz and that that would remain closed.

And we saw that play out yesterday. Iran attacking two foreign oil tankers off the coast of Iraq and Kuwait and Iraqi waters. An eyewitness telling CNN that there is a very bright and a very loud explosion. That was followed by another explosion, they told us. And we know that one person was killed in that attack. We know that dozens of other crew members were forced to abandon ship there as a fire ensued after that strike.

And this comes a day after we've seen attacks on fuel storage tanks as well, both in Bahrain and in Oman. And Bahrain Civil Defense battling a fire there for hours and hours. They told residents nearby to stay inside, keep their windows shut, which suggests some sort of potential environmental fallout from that. And then in the port of Salalah, a similar story. Iran called that attack highly suspicious. They said that Oman was a friendly neighbor, and that they were going to investigate that attack.

But we're also still seeing attacks here on land in the Gulf. We know that Saudi Arabia, their ministry of defense has confirmed that they have been intercepting waves of drones launched into their country today. And we heard from the UAE, from their ministry of defense, a missile and drone attack.

Even Dubai's government media office confirming that debris from a drone hitting a building in DIFC. That is Dubai's financial district. It is a very popular area, place host to some of the world's largest companies, massive banks, international law firms, definitely a beacon of economic power here in the Middle East. Kim? BRUNHUBER: All right. Mike, turning to you now. You've been monitoring how all of these is affecting oil prices and the markets. Bring us up to speed.

MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's not more complicated than this. The only thing that is going to bring the price of oil down, Kim, is conditioned or -- not conditioned, it's the unconditional safety of these tankers that are transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. It's as simple as that.

So, where we are right now? Over the past couple hours of trading here in Asia, the major indices down about 1 percent more or less between Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Shenzhen. So, traders certainly have priced into their outlook for the near term that oil is going to stay around a hundred dollars a barrel. It stayed in that range. Hundred and one is the maximum price that we've seen all day today. Certainly, trending upward but not going much higher than a hundred and one dollars a barrel.

So, the evidence that we have of what it's going to do to bring -- what it's going to take to bring this price down is the energy secretary, Chris Wright, on Tuesday accidentally posting on X that, hey, Navy ships were, again, this wasn't true, helping escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. And we saw that price crash, fall precipitously from the hundred-dollar range.

[02:10:00]

It was as high as a hundred and twenty on Monday, but fall all the way down to $87 a barrel. So, it's going to take something like that.

Meanwhile, drivers in the United States are beginning to feel the pain at the pump. You know, pre-war prices for a gallon of gas were around $2.98. And now that we are approaching this two-week mark, the average cost of gas is $3.60. That's a 62-cent increase.

And to put that in perspective, based on all the tools that were taken out of the toolkit to help drivers in the United States when the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, gas prices were helped out by only as much as 42 cents a gallon. So, we have a 62-cent increase right now over just about two weeks, and we're beginning to sense the limitations of what policy can do short of guaranteeing the safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right. Appreciate that. Mike Valerio, thanks so much. As Ivan mentioned earlier, humanitarian aid workers are getting caught in the crossfire of the war with Iran. Iran's Red Crescent Society says three of its staffers were hurt in an attack at a toll station near Tehran early Friday. Residents across the Iranian capital are being bombed out of their homes. You're looking at the aftermath of an apartment building that was destroyed in Tehran earlier. Many families have been displaced and residents say they have nowhere else to go.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNKNOWN (through translator): They destroyed that house, and this one, and ours here. Now, we are staying with relatives. Where are we supposed to go? We have nowhere.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: The United Nations says millions of people have been displaced across the region. More than four million in Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon, and Pakistan have been affected since the conflict started.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANE DUJARRIC, U.N. SPOKESMAN: The region is home to some of the largest numbers of people in need of humanitarian assistance globally. The recent escalation risks deepening civilian suffering and causing further damage to already fragile civilian infrastructure. We and our humanitarian partners are continuing to provide humanitarian aid to people impacted across several countries and remain ready to ramp up our response in support of national authorities.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: The number of internally-displaced people in Lebanon could reach one million in the coming days. That's according to one migration expert following Israel's new evacuation order in Southern Lebanon. It doubles the size of the area where Israel wants all civilians gone.

Now, while Israel's defense minister is ordering his troops to prepare to expand ground operations across the border, that's happening as Israel's military ramps up strikes on suspected Hezbollah targets. But as Isobel Yeung reports, civilians are often caught in the middle.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We're back in Beirut now. We can smell the smoke and see these big plumes of smoke from where explosions are going off in the city itself. Whoa, look at that. Look at that smoke there.

YEUNG (voice-over): Israel has intensified its air campaign on Lebanon over the last 24 hours --

(EXPLOSION)

-- in the aftermath of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah firing a barrage of rockets towards Israeli territory last night. Earlier in the day, we traveled to the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon where many residents have already been ordered to leave by the Israeli military. As we arrive, another strike warning buzzed our phones.

YEUNG: It is difficult because roads are getting shut because of this warning from the Israeli military to evacuate. We're actually trying to get out of here quickly because this is the exact spot that the Israeli military is saying that could be a potential strike.

YEUNG (voice-over): For journalists to operate here, we need the permission of Hezbollah, who enjoy significant control and support in this area. We arrived at the site of a building that was struck just yesterday. A neighbor came over to tell us his version of events.

YEUNG: Did you see the strike happen?

UNKNOWN: Yes.

YEUNG: What did you see?

UNKNOWN (ON SCREEN TEXT): I saw the explosion and the rocket falling. We picked up fingers belonging to small children. These are the "terrorist targets" that Israel is targeting. That's it.

YEUNG: We can see it was really just overhead and these guys are saying that we have to get out of this area now.

YEUNG (voice-over): According to Hezbollah and the neighbor, eight people were killed here, including three children. This is not the only accusation of civilians being killed in this war, though Israel maintains that it only targets Hezbollah infrastructure. Yesterday, a building in the nearby town of Tamin al-Tata (ph) was struck. Sixteen- year-old Syrian boy Mohammed was dragged from under the rubble. He says at least six of his family members didn't make it.

UNKNOWN (ON SCREEN TEXT): We were sleeping in the morning.

[02:15:00]

A jet came and my dad died. And my mom died. And my sister-in-law and her kids.

YEUNG: I'm so sorry. When did this happen?

UNKNOWN (ON SCREEN TEXT): I was sleeping. The strike woke me. I saw my father in pieces.

YEUNG: I'm so sorry. It must have been terrifying.

UNKNOWN (ON SCREEN TEXT): I wish it was me and that I hadn't seen my dad like that.

YEUNG (voice-over): One of so many lives torn apart by a war with no end in sight.

Isobel Yeung, CNN, Beirut.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BRUNHUBER: We're learning that the Trump administration significantly underestimated Iran's willingness to apply pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, the president's national security team failed to fully account for the consequences that we're seeing now. Iran continues to attack ships in the strait, deepening the historic global energy crisis.

Now, to curb the pain of high gas prices, the U.S. has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil stranded at sea. U.S. Treasury secretary says the U.S. -- the short-term waiver only applies to already in transit and won't significantly benefit the Russian government.

All right, joining me now from Doha is Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar. Thank you so much for being here with us. I really appreciate it. When you hear the Trump administration didn't fully plan for Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, does that surprise you?

MEHRAN KAMRAVA, PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY IN QATAR: Absolutely. It's very surprising. This is nothing new. The Iranians had long suspected of wanting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. And this isn't anything that should be unexpected. And, in fact, we heard voices from Tehran long before the war that they might shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

BRUNHUBER: It is surprising, I guess. So, earlier, this week then, when we're talking about what we're hearing from Iran, Iran's president suggested Iran might consider ending the war under certain conditions. Then the new supreme leader, that statement came out with this hard line, vowing to keep the strait closed as leverage. And then just hours later, Iran's UN ambassador said Tehran had no intention of blocking the strait. So, how should we read these mixed signals coming out of Tehran?

KAMRAVA: Well, Iran has always been notorious in not speaking with one voice, the Islamic Republic, that is. And so, it could very well be fractional politics. But there could also be a much more clever strategy at work here on the part of Iran whereby you have the president playing the role of a good cop and then others playing the role of a bad cop.

And so, you know, this could very well be part of a very deliberate strategy to, on the one hand, keep adversaries and the United States and Israel guessing. On the other hand, maintaining all options open. And we also see this from the White House, the fact that there are multiple statements that could be interpreted in different ways.

BRUNHUBER: Yes, good point. So, Iran's military command now warning that if its energy infrastructure and ports are attacked, it will set the entire region's oil and gas on fire. That's what they were saying. So, how real do you think that threat is? What would that actually mean?

KAMRAVA: Well, you know, that is another one of those threats that the Iranians have been making. And I think it needs to be taken very seriously. Already, Qatar's oil company here in Doha, Qatar Energy, has stopped production and export of liquefied natural gas, and it's going to take weeks, a couple of weeks at least, to get the production back and running. We're looking at one of the major LNG producers globally.

And so, this is not a threat to be dismissed lightly. These facilities are not militarily protected and they're easy to hit. In 2019, in fact, Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia were hit by, again, suspected Iranian missiles that were -- at least the Iranians blamed on the Houthis or others blamed on the Houthis. So, this would have devastating consequences for the global economy and, of course, much more devastating consequences for local economies, these oil economies that are very sensitive to fluctuations in price of gas.

BRUNHUBER: We've been talking sort of policy and big picture. So, I want to change tack a little bit.

[02:20:00]

I mean, you're based in Qatar, which has been hit by Iranian missiles. It had to shut down oil production, now dealing with explosions over Doha. So, give us a sense of what life is like there right now and how people in the Gulf are experiencing this war.

KAMRAVA: I think it's important to remember that places like Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and here Doha where I live, one of the safest cities in the world, people, we are not used to explosions, we're not used to civil defense alarms. And so, it can be extremely jarring and difficult, particularly for people from around the world, like the other 80, 85 percent of the expatriates that have come here from the rest of the world in search of better jobs, safe havens, good places to raise a family. So, life has been disrupted and it's quite jarring for people.

I think it's also important to remember that these are transit hubs. These are Doha, and Dubai in particular, major international air transit hubs. And airports and air spaces have been mostly closed. Only slowly are they getting back on the ground. So, there's tremendous disruption to the routine of life here.

BRUNHUBER: Yes. Appreciate getting your perspective both on, as I say, all the policy issues and also just what life is like there. Mehran Kamrava, thank you so much for speaking with us. Appreciate it.

KAMRAVA: Thank you.

BRUNHUBER: A rescue operation is underway after a U.S. Military refueling plane went down in Western Iraq. That's according to the U.S. Military, which said the jet had at least five crew members on board, whose fate is still unclear. A plane in question is the KC-135 Stratotanker similar to this one. The military also said there was no hostile fire in the area, but the incident involved just another jet of the same type which landed safely later.

A shocking attack on a Michigan synagogue. Families and the wider Jewish community reeling. We'll look at what authorities are revealing about the suspect and his possible motives ahead here on CNN. Plus, we're learning new details about the gunman who opened fire at Virginia University. We'll look at why officials are now investigating the shooting as an act of terrorism. Those stories, next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:25:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BRUNHUBER: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says the person suspected of ramming a vehicle into a Michigan synagogue has been identified as a 41-year-old Lebanese-born naturalized U.S. citizen. The suspect was found dead in the burned-out car after crashing into the Temple of Israel. The FBI says it's investigating the attack as a targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.

Ivan Rodriguez has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IVAN RODRIGUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A house of worship turned into a site of terror Thursday after police received reports of an active shooter and a car driven into a building at Temple Israel in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan, a synagogue that also contains a school.

SHERIFF MICHAEL BOUCHARD, SHERIFF, OAKLAND COUNTY, MICHIGAN: One of the heads of security was taken to the hospital. He got knocked down by the car when it breached the building.

RODRIGUEZ (voice-over): The Oakland County sheriff says a security guard engaged the suspect in gunfire after the vehicle rammed through a set of doors and the suspect is now dead. Sources say the man's car contained what appeared to be a large amount of explosives. The sheriff says something caught fire inside the vehicle, and the suspect's body was badly burned.

BOUCHARD: It caused terrible, terrible smoke in that part of the building. And so, when all of our people collectively went in that building to search at the threat, to remove innocent, a lot of them took in significant amount of smoke inhalation.

RODRIGUEZ (voice-over): According to the sheriff, at least 30 law enforcement officers were taken to the hospital for smoke inhalation. But no staff or children were injured. An FBI agent leading the investigation says the attack was a targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.

DANA NESSEL, MICHIGAN ATTORNEY GENERAL: It's shocking and, you know, it is creating a circumstance where I think people are going to be afraid to go to synagogue.

RODRIGUEZ (voice-over): The incident comes amid a surge of attacks on members of the Jewish community in the U.S.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I want to send our love to the Michigan Jewish community and all of the people in Detroit.

RODRIGUEZ (voice-over): I'm Ivan Rodriguez, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE) BRUNHUBER: A fatal shooting at a Virginia University left one person dead and two other people injured, and it's now being investigated as an act of terrorism. It was Thursday morning at Old Dominion University in Norfolk when a gunman opened fire on a classroom full of students.

Officials identified the shooter as Mohamed Jalloh, a convicted ISIS supporter and U.S. Military veteran. Jalloh pleaded guilty in 2017 for attempting to provide material support to a terrorist group. He was sentenced to 11 years in prison but was released in 2024. The FBI confirmed during a press briefing that Jalloh was killed after a group of students overpowered him.

The U.S. and Israeli war with Iran is setting off an energy crisis of global proportions. Just ahead, we'll hear from a former American secretary of state on what he says is likely coming as war rages on. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:30:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:34:06]

KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR: Top experts and officials are warning about the global economic impact of the war.

Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says the energy shock resulting from the American and Israeli war with Iran has the potential to be very dangerous. Kerry spoke with CNN's Max Foster at the sustainable markets initiative summit in London. He added that no one should underestimate Iran's capacity to drag the war out into a long conflict.

Here he is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAX FOSTER, CNN HOST: Would you say it's one of the worst crises in decades?

JOHN KERRY, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: I would. I think it is because it has the potential of getting even more out of control. I mean, I think if people have a feeling that there's no off ramp and it's going to have a profound impact, you've already seen what's happened to oil production, gas production. You've seen what's happened to prices that will flow down into everybody's economy if it goes on too long.

[02:35:01]

And I think it's really important to avoid the potential of somebody completely misreading or further misreading how one choice will affect others. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: As Kerry mentioned, global oil production is being impacted by the war with Iran. Americans are seeing the consequences of the gas pump.

CNN's Tom Foreman explains why that is.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This conflict is far away. The United States produces a tremendous amount of oil and gas. So why is it affecting your corner gas station?

Because we're talking about another part of the world that also produces a lot of petroleum products. Places like UAE, Saudi Arabia, huge producer Kuwait, Iraq and Iran as well. And almost all of that has to come out through this body of water and through the Strait of Hormuz. About 3,000 ships a month, 20 million barrels a day.

And Iran is putting so much pressure, military pressure on those ships with a threat of attack that they're effectively closing the metaphorical gates here and saying, nothing can get out from this area at the time. How are they doing that?

One of the ways is with the threat of mining the area, which is believed to be underway in some fashion there. We don't know exactly what kind of mines they're using at this moment or how effective they would be, but we know what they have.

For example, they have these -- these are called influence mines. They sit in the water, and they wait for ships to pass overhead if they see a small boat, they might let it pass. A medium sized one let it pass.

But they see one of those big tankers that they're after. That's when they'll blow up. We don't really know how effective they can be, but we know they've already disrupted the flow here immensely.

Now, most of this is going out to go to Asian countries, principally China. Why would that affect you? Because oil is traded on a global market.

Let me fill the back of our hanger here with a bunch of barrels representing all the oil being traded in the world right now. And because of the trouble around the strait of Hormuz, 20 percent is now being held up. You simply can't take that out of the market without affecting manufacturing and shipping and trade and yes, what you're going to pay when you try to fill up your car for this weekend.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BRUNHUBER: Alicia Garcia-Herrero is the chief economist for the Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, and she joins me now from Taiwan.

Thank you so much for being here with us. Appreciate it. I want to go back to those comments from John Kerry. He said that if

there's no off ramp it will hit everybody's economy. How close are we to the edge of a global economic crisis here?

ALICIA GARCIA-HERRERO, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR ASIA PACIFIC, NATIXIS: We're pretty close, and that's the problem. But I guess the key question is, who is closer? And for quite some time, we thought China would be closer to that tipping point, but we figured that China has actually built up a lot of resilience. And by now, if you look at Chinas currency, Chinese markets, what we are reading is that maybe others will fall through that cliff before China does.

So that's the interesting thing about this crisis that is affecting countries very differently, not as we had expected.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah. And many countries, as you point out in Asia certainly very vulnerable to all this because of all of the oil that they get from the -- from the Middle East. I mean, many people sort of watching this, I guess, will be thinking about 2008 or the oil shocks of the 1970s.

How does what we're seeing right now compare to those moments?

GARCIA-HERRERO: Yeah. So, I guess the closest event that people are looking very carefully is Ukraine because Russia being such a large oil exporter, gas exporter, and the impact it had on global inflation, on top of the supply chain disruptions we had after COVID. So that's kind of the most similar because we have both supply chain disruptions. So, shippings not being able to go through, and this is not about oil only. Many other, you know, you can think of many other products that were very similar to that war in Ukraine, including fertilizers or nitrogen or sulfur, you name it.

So that's the most -- that's the closest, and what we got then was a lot of inflation, which made the Fed's life very difficult. Also, the European Central Bank. But actually, no recession then. The difference though is that we had a lot of subsidies in the system. Then out of COVID, we don't have that now.

So, the chances of a recession are higher this time than they were at this juncture -- at that juncture in 2022.

BRUNHUBER: Interesting. To head that off, I guess, many countries are now releasing millions of barrels from emergency reserves to kind of try and bring prices down. I mean, is that enough, do you think to head off the worst of all of this?

[02:40:00]

GARCIA-HERRERO: Well, because we learned that lesson countries are trying to steam off the pressure on consumers, try to avoid disruptions in industrial capacity. This is say, Europe had a lot of that then. But of course, there is a fiscal cost to preserving to, to kind of protecting the consumer or the industrial sector from this oil price increases. Not everybody has that space. I would argue that very few Asian

countries can afford it. Indonesia cannot afford it. Malaysia is doing it because it has a little bit of a positive angle here from the fact that oil prices benefit Malaysia.

So, if you have that, maybe you can afford it. If not, you're going to suffer. And I think many Asian countries will suffer, especially the poorest will suffer because they don't have any even refined oil, and countries like China are stopping exports of refined oil to Asia to protect its own market.

So, you see, if you are at the end of that chain, you don't have any refinery capacities, you're going to suffer double as much.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah and some countries might actually benefit from all this. I'm thinking of Russia. In the mean -- in sort of the middle, I guess, are there countries that might be more resilient to some of these economic shocks? I'm thinking of countries that invested heavily in renewable energy, for example.

GARCIA-HERRERO: Yeah. Well, absolutely. But there's nowhere -- I mean, I would say not even in Europe. You have, you know, Portugal, Spain with the highest share of renewables, and still they need gas.

The good thing is it comes from southern -- you know, basically northern Africa here, the keys who depends most, most on the strait of Hormuz. And if you ask me, Asia, clearly Japan, South Korea, not China as much because they have Russia. They have coal. Australia doesn't depend on anybody. So it's a big winner. Actually, it will benefit by selling more coal and more gas. Malaysia is also a winner.

So, you know, it basically is all about how much you depend on the Strait of Hormuz. How many strategic reserves you have. Japan is the highest in Asia, followed by South Korea and China. And then basically what alternatives as you said, renewables.

But nobody has enough renewables to really withstand this shock. Not even China. It's around 25 percent renewables, not enough.

BRUNHUBER: Interesting.

All right. I appreciate your insights. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, thank you so much for speaking with us. Appreciate it.

GARCIA-HERRERO: Yep.

BRUNHUBER: And environmental groups are warning of possible ecological fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Greenpeace says attacks on the 85 oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The result in disastrous oil spills.

Now, just one spill could irreparably damage the marine habitat and lead to an increase in instability and suffering for people in the Gulf region, one expert says this is an ecological ticking time bomb.

Questions are mounting in Iran following the purported first message from the new supreme leader. Still ahead, why some Iranians believe he may not really be calling the shots.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:47:52]

BRUNHUBER: Iranians have heard a message from their new supreme leader for the first time since he was elected. But Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei didn't appear on video, and the country didn't hear his voice.

As Nick Paton Walsh reports, those details have led to more questions than answers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Even though this message was seven chapters long, it was still written. It was apparently in the handwriting of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, but it did little to assuage the real question people were asking as they heard it read on state television by a female anchor is Mojtaba Khamenei alive? Or more importantly, is he in good enough health to run Iran for the regime in charge?

And that was an answer. We didn't hear his voice. We didn't see his face. We didn't see him read the speech himself on video. There may have been security concerns potentially, that meant his entourage didn't want to expose him for that potential risk.

But frankly, that seems to massively outweigh the questions that this strange medium has indeed provoked. And now, I think, has led many to further question exactly the capacity in which the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in charge. Is he simply somebody who is in a poor state of health, who Republican guard hardliners allowing into that position? Or are we actually talking about somebody who has the authority and the force to govern Iran, a theocratic regime who's been beholden to one individual for nearly 40 years or so?

And so, the question now turns to the content of that message. And I have to be honest, there wasn't much in there that was new. A repeat that the Straits of Hormuz would be closed. That was ultimately leverage, potentially against Gulf nations to get them to kick the United States military out of their countries. Farfetched frankly, given they're now under attack by Iran and the U.S. provides a lot of their security.

There was a demand that Iran get reparations for the damage that the U.S. and Israel did. Equally farfetched as well. And a suggestion to that potentially they would look for surprise targets to hit the United States with possibly softer targets. Also, Iran well known for its asymmetrical warfare.

[02:50:01]

So, no major policy announcement really within that. But the larger takeaway being why is Mojtaba Khamenei, a man normally averse to the public eye not in this key moment, making himself known in public.

And it adds to many questions about who's potentially in charge, who potentially is there in Tehran to negotiate a political off ramp for this conflict, with President Trump persistently talking about victory, about how there may be some kind of end in sight, demanding unconditional surrender, his thoughts clearly focused on how this comes to an end.

But without some kind of concession, or at least Iran stopping fighting, stopping the missiles or drones, he can't really claim to have had a victory that justifies the American loss of life and expenditure on this horrific conflict for many Iranian civilians who've been killed.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, Amman, Jordan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BRUNHUBER: Eight Muslim majority countries have condemned Israel's closure of the gates to Al-Aqsa Mosque during the holy month of Ramadan. The Al-Aqsa mosque is the third holiest site in Islam. For Jews, the site is known as the temple mount. Israeli police say the closure was due to safety concerns. They say all holy sites in Jerusalem's old city would remain closed to visitors of all faiths.

Glamor will be on display in Hollywood this weekend for the Academy Awards show, and security will be playing a bigger role there after recent claims that Iranian drones could target California. We'll have more details coming up after the break.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BRUNHUBER: California officials are downplaying recent unverified claims that Iranian drones could target the West Coast. But with the academy awards just days away, officials are beefing up security and taking no chances with any threats.

Hunter Sowards from CNN affiliates KCBS and KCAL has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HUNTER SOWARDS, KCBS REPORTER (voice-over): As Los Angeles prepares to host Hollywood's biggest night, threats from abroad are causing concern at home. An FBI bulletin released this week detailed a tip from early February, claiming information about an Iranian surprise drone attack from a boat off the U.S. coast with targets in California. Officials telling CBS News there is no known, credible, specific threat underpinning this alert.

RANDY GODDARD, LAPD INCIDENT COMMANDER: It just reaffirms the planning process.

SOWARDS (voice-over): LAPD incident commander for the upcoming Oscars says there is also no specific threat to the city or the show, but they are prepared for anything.

GODDARD: Whether we're planning for a single individual to we're going to have some bad actors that are commit terrorism, we have to account for all of those scenarios.

[02:55:01]

SOWARDS (voice-over): One retired FBI special agent said any time law enforcement gets a tip like this, they immediately begin verifying credibility.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It talks about Iran aspiring to do things -- well, we can all aspire to do things. But are they capable? Do they have the means or the system set up in order to do that?

JUSTIN MACLAURIN, PRESIDENT & CEO, DIGITAL FORCE TECHNOLOGIES: The true reality is how close can they get to our waters or our borders to launch these different things?

SOWARDS (voice-over): Justin MacLaurin is the CEO of Digital Force Technologies. He works with the military to create defense technology to protect the U.S. from these specific kind of attacks.

MACLAURIN: Really, we look at it in terms of range. And so, me personally, I think the threat is one that can be mitigated, but at the same time has to be taken credibly.

SOWARDS (voice-over): Back in Hollywood, LAPD is working around the clock with local, state and federal agencies.

GODDARD: Through all of these systems and controls to make sure that the only people getting around the Oscars are people that are supposed to be there.

SOWARDS (voice-over): When asked about the specific threat of drone attacks, he detailed plans in place to protect and mitigate, from bomb techs to SWAT, to mobile field forces and FBI agents.

GODDARD: I can say, if you're one of the lucky ones to be a guest at the Academy Awards, it's probably going to be one of the safest places to be in the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHARACTER: Let's send those disgusting demons back to the depths where they belong.

CHARACTERS: Yeah! Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Well, Netflix has confirmed that a sequel to the wildly popular "K-Pop Demon Hunters" is in development. The animated musical is Netflix's most watched film of all time. Its co-directors Maggie Kang, and Chris Appelhans are returning for the sequel. It's expected to follow the adventures of the demon hunting music trio called Huntrix, but no release date has been confirmed.

Of course, the original won best animated feature and best song at the Critics Choice Awards, and it also won two Golden Globes, a Grammy and two Oscar nominations.

Well, after several delays, the U.S. space agency NASA has set new dates for the launch of its Artemis two moon mission. Liftoff is now set for April 1st, with six alternate dates.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LORI GLAZE, ACTING ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR, ESDMD, NASA: Pending completion of the work in the VAB and at the pad, we are on track for a launch as early as April 1st, and we are working toward that date.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: The rocket has had problems with various fuel leaks, but on Thursday, officials finished a two day flight readiness review and evaluation of whether the spacecraft rocket and ground systems are prepared for launch. The 10-day crewed mission would loop around the moon. It would be the first crewed lunar trip since the Apollo missions 50 years ago.

All right. That wraps this hour of CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Kim Brunhuber. I'll be back in a moment with more news. Stay with us

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)