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Trump Slams Iran's Response; Passengers Evacuate Hantavirus Ship; Russia, Ukraine Accuse Each Other of Ceasefire Violations; Israel Announces New Strikes In Southern Lebanon; Americans Fly Back To U.S. After Leaving Hantavirus-Hit Ship; Democrats Scramble After Virginia Court Issues Redistricting Blow. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired May 11, 2026 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[02:00:00]

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ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church. Just ahead on "CNN Newsroom," Donald Trump rejects the latest offer from Iran, leaving an already fragile ceasefire in limbo. Returning home U.S. passengers stuck aboard a cruise ship hit with hantavirus are set to arrive in Nebraska soon. We will take a look at what officials are doing around the world to keep people safe. Plus, we're just a month away from the FIFA World Cup, but soaring ticket prices are dampening the enthusiasm for many die-hard fans.

UNKNOWN (voice-over): Live from Atlanta. This is "CNN Newsroom with Rosemary Church."

CHURCH: Good to have you with us. And we begin with the latest developments on the Iran war. President Donald Trump is calling Tehran's response to a U.S. proposal to end the war -- quote -- "totally unacceptable." Iranian state media says the counter proposal includes recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a demand for compensation, but no mention of the country's nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Israeli sources say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Trump on Sunday. Here's what Netanyahu told CBS on where the war stands.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: I think it accomplished a great deal, but it's not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. There are still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There still proxies that Iran supports. There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce. Now, we've degraded a lot of it, but all that is still there, and there's work to be done.

(END VIDEO CLIP) CHURCH: Also, Iranian state media reports its supreme leader has met with a senior military commander and received a report on the readiness of Iran's armed forces.

So, let's bring in CNN's Kristie Lu Stout. She joins us live from Hong Kong. Good to see you, Kristie. So, President Trump has rejected Iran's response to his peace proposal. What does this mean for oil prices and, of course, the actual conflict?

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Yes, hopes for an imminent end to the conflict have been dashed. Tension is high. Remember, just a couple days ago, the United States have been hoping for a serious offer from Iran and waited for days for that counter proposal to come through. And when it came through on Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump took a look at it, and he slammed it on social media. This is what the U.S. president said on Truth Social, saying this: Quote -- "I have just read the response from Iran's so-called representatives. I don't like it." And then in all caps, "totally unacceptable."

Now, immediately after that, oil prices surged some three percent. We've been following the price of Brent crude as well as WTI, and they continue to rise. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, now up more than four percent. WTI, West Texas Intermediate, that's the U.S. oil benchmark, trading 4.6 percent higher. We're also keeping an eye on U.S. futures, including the S&P 500. You can see right there on your screen, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, all pointing down, all set to trade lower when trading resumes on Monday.

Now, let's dig into the details of what Iran counter proposed. According to Iranian state media, this is what caused that negative reaction from U.S. President Donald Trump. The counter proposal included compensation for war damages and to sanctions, to the U.S. naval blockade, an end to the U.S. ban on Iranian oil sales, and a guarantee for no further attacks.

Now, we did hear in that interview with CBS News from the Iranian leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, who said that the war is not over because -- "work needs to be done" in regards to Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Look, the U.S. president is under a lot of pressure right now to seal a deal, to reach a lasting peace, especially now. He's meeting with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing. It's just days away, but Iran continues to be defiant.

[02:04:52]

We heard from the Iranian president, who took to his social media platform of choice X, to say this -- quote -- "We will never bow our heads before the enemy, and if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat. Rather, the goal is to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and to defend national interests with resolute strength" -- unquote.

Now, Rosemary, the Strait of Hormuz, it remains effectively closed. And Iran's military has warned any country that enforces U.S. sanctions against Iran will -- quote -- "face problems if and when their ships use the Strait of Hormuz." Back to you, Rosemary.

CHURCH: And Kristie, Chinese trade data is out. How is the world's second largest economy managing the economic impact of this war?

LU STOUT: It's interesting, Rosemary, because China is powering ahead. China's economy is experiencing a lot of challenges from the ongoing property slump, record-high youth unemployment. It relies on exports and the export machine is humming along very nicely. According to data just out, exports surged 14.1 percent in April compared to a year ago on the back of strong sales of A.I.-related equipment. But economists do point out, if the conflict with Iran continues to drag on, prices will go up, and then demand for China's exports will go down.

So, expect trade to be front and center when U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping sit down for talks. We learned earlier today, it's confirmed from China's official sources and China's officials themselves, the meeting is set to take place. The visit, May 13th, May 15th later this week. Back to you.

CHURCH: Kristie Lu Stout, many thanks for that live report. Appreciate it. Well, joining us live from London is Negah Angha. She is a visiting fellow at King's College London and a former senior adviser at the U.S. State Department and National Security Council. Appreciate you talking with us.

Good morning. Thanks for having me.

CHURCH: So, Donald Trump is not happy with Iran's latest response to his peace plan, calling it totally unacceptable. According to Iranian state media, Tehran wants compensation for war damages, an end to the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions, and also an end to the U.S. ban on Iranian oil sales, plus recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. So, what likely comes next, do you think?

NEGAH ANGHA, VISITING FELLOW AT KING'S COLLEGE LONDON, FORMER SENIOR ADVISER, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT AND NATIONAL SECURITYU COUNCIL: First of all, I mean, this is quite clear, that this counter proposal exposed how far apart the two sides are still in terms of sequencing, in terms of sanctions, in terms of the nuclear end state. And I think where we are, again, a very dangerous phase in terms of, you know, coercive diplomacy that the Trump administration has used from the beginning of this war. You know, he is still using language that leaves open for more force.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is saying there's still a lot more work that needs to be done on the enriched uranium, enriched sites, missiles, and proxies. And there's quite a bit of military signaling from Tehran that shows that they remain defiant. It doesn't necessarily mean that war is inevitable at this point in time, but it does mean both sides still need to and feel like they can still exert extra pressure and could improve their bargaining position. And the biggest fear right now is this is where miscalculations could actually happen.

But I think quite a bit of work is going to have to happen by many regional partners and, of course, the Pakistanis as the mediators to try to get both sides to come to the table to begin those conversations. The unfortunate part is how far apart they are on just the basic sort of proposal of negotiating because President Trump essentially not just want one clause but the entirety of the negotiating sequence.

CHURCH: So, why do you think Iran is ignoring demands from the U.S. to address its nuclear ambitions and to hand over all its highly- enriched uranium?

ANGHA: You know, I think Iran is effectively saying that first, you know, we need to end the war, stop the blockade, and provide some sort of guarantees that there won't be a renewed attack. And more than anything, they actually need space for economic relief. They need sanctions relief. The Iranian people cannot buy eggs at this point in time. And Iran's position -- and they're using the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to say, no, we're not going to even touch the hard nuclear questions until we have some guarantees, some trust that the United States isn't going to attack us.

CHURCH: And, of course, President Trump heads to China this week for meetings with President Xi Jinping. How much pressure is on the U.S. president to make a deal?

[02:10:01]

And could China perhaps end up playing the role of peace broker here?

ANGHA: I think there's definitely a role that could be played. I think the inherent question is, you know, how does President Trump play this card with China? What if China says no? Then where does that leave the United States in that conversation? So, there is a role. China, obviously, has played a role between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the past. We've seen both sides keeping to their ends of the bargain in terms of what was negotiated by China. So, there could be a role for them.

I think the question is going to be how -- how does President Trump engage with China on the Iran file without getting a no out of China because, from there, it will be very complicated to pursue the next steps in trying to end this conflict.

CHURCH: So, how likely is it that we'll see a return to military action given where things stand right now and what might that look like?

ANGHA: I think at this point in time, we're going to have to watch behavior and not necessarily the rhetoric that's coming out of both sides. I think, again, we're going to have to look at, you know, the commercial shipping, whether there's any drone incidents over any Gulf states or Israeli strikes into Lebanon. In that sense, we'll get a better sense of where things lie and whether we're closer to another, you know, series of attacks or if we're going to get closer towards a negotiating tone.

I think, again, right now, it's very hard to sparse what the rhetoric is. A lot of it, I feel like, is, you know, for lack of a better term, it's flexing by both sides to see how much more that they can sort of exert leverage over the other party. But I think there is some reluctant reaction to go into war just yet, especially on the heels of this trip to China.

CHURCH: Negah Angha, thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

ANGHA: Thank you for having me.

CHURCH: Seventeen Americans who were stuck on a cruise ship hit by a deadly hantavirus outbreak are now flying back to the U.S. and could arrive soon. They're headed toward a quarantine facility in Nebraska after leaving Tenerife in Spain's Canary Islands on Sunday night. One of the Americans tested mildly positive for the virus and another has mild symptoms. Now, they were among 94 people of 19 nationalities who evacuated off the ship on Sunday. One French national began showing symptoms of hantavirus on the flight back to France. The World Health Organization chief spoke about that case.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS, DIRECTOR, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: I know the French experts will do all that's needed to manage this. And that's why we say, when you see it from different angles, this may not be a concern. But at the same time, all the preparations also give us -- give us confidence. And the behavior of the virus also, which is not, I've said it many times, is not -- is not COVID. So, if you add all that, I think that's where it comes. When I say not worry, it doesn't mean that there are no issues here, but it means we can -- we can handle it and it can be handled.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: We have already seen some of the ship's passengers return home, including those aboard this plane landing on Sunday in England. And in the hours ahead, the remaining passengers still on the ship will be boarding planes to Australia and the Netherlands. CNN's Melissa Bell is following all the developments from Tenerife.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It was at sunset that the operations this Sunday to evacuate passengers from the MV Hondius came to an end. The very last passengers to be disembarked, these 17 Americans, who like the others had been stuck on the ship, they were taken to shore as had the French, the Dutch or the other nationalities over the course of the day by small boats and in batches of five, brought ashore, taken through a tent, put on a bus, and then taken to the waiting plane ready to carry them back to Omaha, Nebraska. From there, they go on to the special quarantine unit where, we understand from CDC officials, they will be screened, assessed, and then it is hoped, for the most part, allowed to carry out their isolation period back home.

[02:14:58]

Different protocols for different countries. We have had the news that amongst the French passengers that were evacuated earlier in the day, one of them had begun showing symptoms on the flight home. Special procedures now being put in place by French authorities around that passenger. But at the end of a successful day of operations here at the small port of Grenadier, they will continue on Monday, the very last passengers to be taken off the ship will be the Australians, and then we understand that the ship itself will head back to Rotterdam for a full disinfection with some 30 crew members still on board.

Melissa Bell, CNN, Tenerife.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: The acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the U.S. is pushing back on criticism over the agency's response to the hantavirus outbreak and says the public shouldn't be panicking. Here is part of his interview with CNN's Jake Tapper.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. JAY BHATTACHARYA, ACTING DIRECTOR, CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION: We are in touch with the WHO. We are in touch with the international health organizations, including the one in Spain. And we have been providing technical assistance to all of those organizations all the way through.

This is not COVID, Jake. And we don't want to treat it like COVID. We don't want to cause a public panic over this. We want to treat it with the hantavirus protocols that we -- that we -- again, we're successful in containing outbreaks in the past. And so, we follow those protocols. We give health -- this health alert is coming up because, again, there's this discrete event of the 17 arriving in the United States very, very soon.

And so, we just want to make sure that the medical community understands this. We've been communicating the last week as the sort of the press attention is picked up more with the public as is appropriate given the nature of this disease.

The key message I want to send to your audience is that this is not COVID. This is not going to lead to the kind of outbreak. And I'm pleased to hear the opening segment where you emphasized that because we shouldn't be panicking when the evidence doesn't warrant it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Later in the show, I will speak about the hantavirus outbreak with Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at UCLA and the director of the UCLA Center for Global Health Security. So, do stay with us for that. Just ahead, the outcome of Russia and Ukraine's temporary ceasefire and what it means for the chance of a long-term peace. That's next.

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[02:20:00]

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CHURCH: The man accused of trying to kill President Trump during last month's White House Correspondents' Dinner will be arraigned in federal court in Washington in the coming hours. Thirty-one-year-old Cole Thomas Allen is expected to enter his plea at that time. He faces several charges. They include assaulting an officer with a deadly weapon and firearms charges. The images on screen are the weapons in his possession at the time of the incident.

Prosecutors say Allen planned the attack for weeks. He was arrested after rushing past security outside the main event. An exchange of gunfire followed. That caused panic in the ballroom where the dinner was being held. The president and other administration officials were rushed to safety by the Secret Service.

Six people have been found dead in a cargo train's boxcar in Texas. Officials say the bodies were found in a Union Pacific train at a rail yard in the border city of Laredo on Sunday. The circumstances of the deaths are unknown and an investigation is underway. Union Pacific says it is saddened by the incident and is working with law enforcement to investigate.

Today marks the third and final day of the brief ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, but both governments are accusing each other of violations over the weekend. Russia says it shot down 57 Ukrainian drones on Sunday and has -- quote -- "responded in kind on the battlefield." Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials say three people were killed in Russian drone strikes near the front lines. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia has not stopped its attacks on the front.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE (through translator): There were no massive attacks today, no missile or airstrikes, but there was no peace in the frontline areas and communities near the front. The Russians continue their assault activity in directions that are key for them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Russia and Ukraine had announced separate ceasefires earlier this week with Moscow hoping to avoid disruption of its World War II Victory Day parade on Saturday.

Earlier, we asked CNN contributor and former Moscow bureau chief, Jill Dougherty, whether the temporary truce was meant to advance larger peace negotiations and if it could hold longer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR, ADJUNCT PROFESSOR AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, DISTINGUISHED FELLOW AT WOODROW WILSON CENTER, FORMER CNN MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF: I think it was really a temporary measure at a very delicate moment. I mean, that parade was symbolic in so many ways, especially to Vladimir Putin. And to have, you know, drone attacks by Ukrainians on Moscow would be an utter disaster.

So, I don't think, you know, really, President Trump certainly, who apparently asked both sides, he says, to have some type of, you know, ceasefire, that it was a request simply to make sure this did not turn into a disaster.

But in terms of long-term, no. Immediately, both sides were accusing each other of violating. In fact, today, I think the Russians were saying that Ukraine violated it 16,000 times. So, that's kind of where we are at this point. Again, it didn't really solve much of anything. But the fact that they are going to trade prisoners is a very good thing. That would be one thousand on each side, and that's important.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: President Trump will be visiting Beijing this week. Just ahead, we will find out what's on the table for discussion with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping. Back in just a moment.

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CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone. U.S. President Donald Trump will be visiting Beijing this week. China's Foreign Affairs Ministry confirmed the trip where he's expected to meet with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping. The visit comes amid differences on major issues, including trade and national security, and also as President Trump tries to broker a peace deal with Iran. CNN's Julia Benbrook has more from the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JULIA BENBROOK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It really was a waiting game here at the White House this weekend. But the United States has now received a response from Iran on their proposal to bring the conflict to an end, and President Donald Trump says he doesn't like it. I want to pull up that post for you now. In it, he said -- quote -- "I have just read the response from Iran's so-called representatives. I don't like it. Totally unacceptable."

This response came later than some in the administration had predicted. In fact, Trump and other officials said on Friday that they expected to hear from Tehran that day. At the time, Trump was pressed on the timing of this. And if he thought that Iran was slow rolling their response to that, he said, we'll see soon enough. Now, there are still a lot of questions about what is in that response. What is clear is that Trump thinks it doesn't go far enough to address his concerns.

We have reached out to the White House for more details. What was included and how far did it go when it comes to addressing Iran's nuclear capabilities? In an interview with Axios, Trump confirmed that he did speak on Sunday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the Iranian response and other matters.

[02:30:03]

The two have been in close contact throughout these peace negotiations. He did say that it was a good call.

Julia Benbrook, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: The Israeli military announced new strikes in southern Lebanon over the weekend. Israel says it struck targets belonging to the Iran backed militant group Hezbollah.

Lebanon's national news agency reports at least 22 people were killed in the strikes, including a 12 year old girl. Hezbollah says it launched 22 attacks of its own on Israeli forces, friends and families have been mourning those killed in the strikes. The fighting has continued between Israel and Hezbollah, despite a U.S. brokered ceasefire in Lebanon.

Seventeen Americans are on their way back to the United States from Spain's Canary Islands. They were evacuated from a cruise ship hit by a deadly hantavirus outbreak. They're headed to a specialized quarantine facility in Nebraska, where they will receive additional care and monitoring.

According to officials, one American has tested mildly positive for the virus, while another one has mild symptoms. Prior to leaving Spain's Canary Islands, they were among the 94 people across 19 nationalities who were evacuated from the ship. The final two flights evacuating passengers will leave the Canary Islands later today, bound for Australia and the Netherlands.

Anne Rimoin is a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public health.

Appreciate you joining us.

ANNE RIMOIN, PROFESSOR OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, UCLA FIELDING SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: Happy to be here.

CHURCH: So most passengers have been evacuated off the hantavirus stricken cruise ship and are heading home with the World Health Organization advising each country to develop its own safety protocols. How wise is that advice, and what is the best way to prevent exposure to the public given a French passenger is now exhibiting symptoms, and that's adding to fears that this could spread?

RIMOIN: Well, I think that the key is, is the WHO has set out the parameters in -- for quarantine and isolation and how this all should work. And those include doing what makes the most sense in is, is possible in the countries where people are being repatriated. The key points are you want to keep people who have been exposed in a controlled environment where theyre being checked on regularly, and that we know whether or not theyre exhibiting symptoms.

And then for people, if they get sick, that not only do they, they isolate, but they have access to the kind of care that they need as quickly as possible, because this virus is very, very deadly or can be. You know, I -- I do think that the, the very important point here too is that, you know, people, the symptoms of hantavirus can be very broad. They can mimic a lot of other things.

And so when you say there's a French passenger that is exhibiting symptoms that are consistent with hantavirus, you know, what we need to remember is it could be any number of things. But because these symptoms do resemble hantavirus, it's very important to isolate that person as quickly as possible and to do some testing to really understand whether or not these symptoms are indeed a result of hantavirus.

CHURCH: Yeah, that's an important point.

And American passengers, we know from the cruise ship, will be required to stop at a Nebraska facility before heading home. What will that process entail, considering some Americans have already returned home from that ship, haven't they?

RIMOIN: Correct. So, for the passengers that are going to be repatriated to the United States, theyre going to Nebraska first. And this facility is specifically built for this exact situation where we want to be able to get people into a place where theyre going to have the right ability to be able to isolate people, provide them care should they need it. They're probably going to be doing these kind of risk-based, risk based assessments in terms of really understanding what exposures they've had, what their medical history is, and really screening them for potential exposures or potential symptoms of hantavirus.

You know, it's true that people then are potentially going to be given the option to go home and isolate or quarantine at home. But that's probably also going to depend upon whether or not its actually really possible for them to, to quarantine at home. Do they have what they need there to be able to do so? Are they caregivers where they might not really be able to make that happen?

[02:35:00]

There's probably going to be a lot of discussion around that before people really make decisions as to what theyre going to be doing.

And that actually does make a lot of sense because you can isolate at home or quarantine at home during this time period. It's just a function of whether or not that's actually really possible to do so.

CHURCH: And in addition to this, we are hearing that British army medics had to parachute onto a remote Atlantic island to treat a U.K. national with a suspected hantavirus case. What does that indicate to you, given the timing of this?

RIMOIN: Well, I think it's really important to remember that this is a very serious disease. It can be deadly. If not, if you don't have the right kind of care and the care that's given as quickly as possible. And so, you know, I think part of the problem here is that every time we hear of a new development, we have so much PTSD from COVID, we start to wonder, well, what does this mean? Is this going to be a, you know, something that that spreads everywhere?

That's not actually what were concerned about at this point. What we're concerned about is making sure that we contain a virus that can be very deadly, not necessarily a pandemic threat, but very deadly and very serious for the people who are actually, you know experiencing it. And that's what it tells me is that people are taking it very seriously, really important to get people the care as quickly as possible, but doesn't necessarily signal a potential global threat.

CHURCH: And the cruise ship is now docked in the Canary Islands, with the crew still on board, along with a small number of passengers. What needs to happen next for the crew and of course, the ship?

RIMOIN: Well, there's still other people that are going to be getting off the ship and going to be, repatriated home. And then that ship is going to be with a skeleton crew is going to go back to Rotterdam, and it's going to, with a -- with a medical board, a medical crew on board to be able to make sure that the people that are still on the ship, the crew that are there are also being taken care of should somebody fall ill.

And then those people will disembark in Rotterdam, they'll be triaged, screened, probably quarantined there as well. And then the ship will be disinfected.

CHURCH: Anne Rimoin, great to have you with us. Appreciate you answering all the many questions we have. Thank you.

RIMOIN: My pleasure.

CHURCH: Democrats are hoping to pick up more seats in the midterm elections, but redistricting battles in several states could upend those plans. A look at who's likely to have control of the house this fall. We'll take a look just ahead here on CNN.

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[02:40:59]

CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone.

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are scrambling to figure out what's next after Virginia's Supreme Court handed Republicans an advantage in the next election. The court struck down a redistricting plan that had been approved by voters and could have helped Democrats win up to four more house seats. It's the latest effort to reshape congressional maps in a way some critics say racially discriminates against voters of color.

Still, prominent Democratic Congressman James Clyburn told CNN's Jake Tapper that he plans to run and win in the next election no matter what Republicans do.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JAMES CLYBURN (D-SC): You know, the voters will have the last word on this. And I don't know why people think I could not get reelected if they redistrict South Carolina. I will be running on a record and a promise -- my record and Americas promise. So I'm going to run, irrespective of what the makeup of the district might be, because I believe that I have a record that is very acceptable to the South Carolina voter. And I have a good understanding of America's promise. And we'll run on that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: That ongoing redistricting battle between Democrats and Republicans is escalating ahead of this year's midterms.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten runs the numbers on where things stand right now.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Look, the redistricting wars for the 2025-2026 cycle have taken a drastic turn over the last two weeks or so. And now I think it's fairly safe to say that Republicans will, in fact, win them when it comes to this cycle. But what exactly does that mean? Does that mean it's a nightmare for Democrats? Well, sort of, but not really.

Why do I say that? Well, let's just take a look at what it actually means. And we can best see this in terms of what we think Democrats will need to win the national House vote by in order to win control come November.

You know, under the current lines, what we essentially think is they'd have to win the national House popular vote by less than a point. Basically, you win the national House vote, and then you win control of the U.S. House. That's what we would think under the current lines.

But under the redistricting lines, right? The redistricting lines -- well, now with Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, the Supreme Court ruling, we think that Democrats would have to win the national house vote by, lets say, between 3 and 4 points in order to win house control come November. Now, that's a significantly wider margin, a significantly wider margin than what we'd expect under the current lines. The ones that of course, the elections were fought under in November of 2024.

But it's three to four points. It's not anything like ten points or anything like that. It just makes the road significantly harder for Democrats. But there is good news for Democrats. And that is you see this three to four point margin right here.

And what do they lead right now by in the national House vote polls? Well, their average lead -- well, its about six points which you don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that six points is significantly wider than, well, three to four points. But that leaves Democrats with a much smaller margin for error, right?

It leaves them at the upper end of this range that if the polls, lets say the election were held today, if the polls were off by just two points, or if I were to actually draw that so that our viewers could actually see it. Two points -- well, that means if there was an error two points in the wrong direction, Democrats all of a sudden might not win back the House at all. And more than that, on the eve of the election, we still have months and months to go. So these polls can change.

But even if on the eve of the election, you look, historically speaking, the real margin of error, you know, you look at all the errors, historically speaking, we're talking about closer to plus or minus seven points.

[02:45:02]

So what that essentially means is, yes, Democrats would be favored going into the elections today if in fact, this were the polling average nationally, this six point lead. But they'd be significantly -- the favorite would not be -- they would not be anywhere near as big of a favorite as they were, just say, let's say a few weeks ago and you can actually see this pretty well in the prediction markets, right? Because lets just take a look at the chance Democrats have to win the House in 2026.

Well, you go back about a month ago and look at that. Democrats had an 86 percent chance. You look at it now. Well, that advantage is down to about a 74 percent chance. And that, of course, makes a whole heck of a lot of sense, given that the lines have are going to be redrawn heading in the election heading into the 2026 election, and a much less favorable way for Democrats than we thought that they were going to be.

So the bottom line is this Democrats in the catbird seat still, but not nearly the favorites that they once were, or at least what we thought they were going to be just, say, a month ago.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: It has been nearly 100 days since Nancy Guthrie went missing and her daughter, "Today Show' co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, is honoring her in an emotional tribute for Mother's Day. She posted a collage of pictures and videos online saying, quote, "We miss you with every breath. We will never stop looking for you. We will never be at peace until we find you."

Her husband, Michael Feldman, also posted a picture of Savannah and their two children saying, quote, "To the strongest person I know. Surrounding you with love on Mother's Day."

Investigators believe 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie was abducted from her Tucson, Arizona, home by a masked suspect on February 1st.

Still to come, just one month to go before the World Cup begins and football fans are thrilled. But high ticket prices mean many people will have to watch from home. A look at some of the soaring costs. That's just ahead.

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[02:50:57]

CHURCH: Welcome back, everyone.

With just a month to go before the start of the FIFA World Cup, excitement is building but expensive tickets means many fans will have to watch at home or elsewhere. Even for those who do get tickets for the games, the costs don't end there.

Our Leigh Waldman has more.

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LEIGH WALDMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: If you paid thousands or even in some cases, millions of dollars for your FIFA World Cup ticket, I hope that you set some aside to actually make it to those games. If you are traveling from Penn Station here in New York City over to MetLife to catch one of those games, that train ticket is going to cost you $105 a discount from the $150 that was announced just a few weeks ago, but still way more expensive than the typical $12.90 that ticket would run you.

New Jersey transit says this is because its going to cost them $48 million to try and ferry those fans over to the stadium during these games. It's something that New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill has been very vocal about.

Her spokesperson telling us in a statement, "Governor Sherrill has been clear that FIFA should contribute to transport its fans to World Cup games. Since it hasn't, she's directed New Jersey Transit to seek private and non taxpayer dollars to significantly reduce the fare. The governor appreciates all the companies that have already stepped up to lower the cost for ticket holders. She will continue to ensure the World Cup is an experience that benefits fans and all New Jerseyans."

Now, FIFA, they don't want to help with the cost here, but New York's governor and New York City's mayor, Zohran Mamdani, have also weighed in on these huge expenses.

MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI (D), NEW YORK: The decision of what to charge for these tickets is a decision made by New Jersey transit, and it's a decision that theyre making because of the cost that comes with the host duties. And I empathize with the fact that what we see oftentimes is municipalities being left with a cost of a tournament that will generate $11 billion in revenue.

What I can say is that what is within New York City's control, we are going to ensure it is the most affordable experience it can be.

WALDMAN: If we look at Boston and other host city, the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, has increased their transit prices to $80 around these games. It's way up from the typical $20 that fans would normally pay for these tickets.

But Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, they're not increasing their fares at all. If you don't want to book a New Jersey transit ticket here, you don't have a ton of other options. A bus ticket will cost you $80 here. And if you want to get a parking spot nearby the stadium, that's going to run you just over $200. Not a ton of options for fans here who want to take in a game.

Leigh Waldman, CNN, New York.

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CHURCH: For one man in Mexico, this year's tournament brings an opportunity to add to the massive World Cup souvenir collection he's been building over more than a half century.

Our Valeria Leon looks at -- takes a look.

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VALERIA LEON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For decades, these items were kept in the dark. Now, for the first time, they're being brought back into the light. Mexican collector Francisco Javier Lopez delves into his archive, his collection of more than 2,000 pieces started more than five decades ago with a single sticker album from the 1974 World Cup.

FRANCISCO JAVIER LOPEZ, WORLD CUP SOUVENIR COLLECTOR (through translator): A true collector should not just accumulate. You have to become a historian and rescue the narrative behind each piece.

LEON (voice-over): And the stories here span generations, from pennants of the 1962 World Cup in Chile to bottle caps featuring players from Mexico's first domestic World Cup in 1970, to official gear worn by sports journalists in Argentina in 1978.

LOPEZ (through translator): This vest is certified. Photographers had to wear it to access the field.

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It even has the registration number.

LEON (voice-over): And through it all, one thing has never changed.

LEON: What does a collector need?

LOPEZ (through translator): You can never lose your sense of wonder. If you do, your collection becomes mere material.

LEON (voice-over): He's also preserved tickets from matches played during Mexico's two previous World Cups, in 1970, and '86.

LOPEZ (through translator): This was the game of the century. Germany versus Italy. They gave everything.

LEON (voice-over): Now, as Mexico prepares to co-host this year's World Cup, his collection is approaching its final chapter.

LEON: What's the future of this collection? LOPEZ (through translator): In life, you have to learn how to close

cycles. This is a perfect one. It begins with Mexico 1970 and can end with dignity in Mexico 2026.

LEON (voice-over): His archive will be put on public display for the first time this summer in Mexico City. A lifetime of football preserved one piece at a time.

Valeria Leon, CNN, Mexico City.

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CHURCH: Eurovision Week has officially kicked off in Vienna. Representatives from 35 countries will be participating in this year's song competition, with the semifinals set to begin on Tuesday. The annual contest is marking its 70th anniversary under the shadow of some controversy.

Five countries are boycotting the event over Israel's participation in protest of the war in Gaza. And Austrian police say they have instituted extra security measures in response to heightened tensions.

I want to thank you so much for your company this hour. I'm Rosemary Church.

CNN NEWSROOM with my colleague Ivan Watson is next after a quick break.

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