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CNN Live Saturday

Is Bush Agenda in Danger?

Aired May 26, 2001 - 12:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DONNA KELLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Tax cuts may have been at the top of the president's wish list, but the rest of the Bush agenda could be in doubt, and that's due to, of course, the Senate shakeup, triggered by Senator James Jeffords' announcement that he is leaving the GOP. Here now to talk about the new look Senate is Karen Tumulty, "TIME" magazine's national political correspondent.

Karen, good to have you join us.

KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Hi, Donna.

KELLEY: As you were just hearing, of course, we are just about to the final vote in the Senate, so it looks like the tax compromise bill is passed. They have those 60 votes with the Democrats along. Pretty big victory for the White House?

TUMULTY: It is a huge victory for the White House and in fact, this was the script that they thought they would be operating under this week, that this was going to be the most triumphant week since the inauguration. He was not only going to get the tax cut that's been the centerpiece of his agenda, but he was going to see his education plan pass the House, which it did. The only problem was, in the middle of this week, they had an earthquake in the Senate.

KELLEY: Yes, huge earthquake, as you put it. You are so right. So, everything changes, but can you really count on Jeffords if he says he is independent, to go with the Democrats all the time? I mean, today, 12 Democrats go with the Republicans on the tax bill and two Republicans voted against it?

TUMULTY: Yeah, you know, the whole concept of control of the Senate is an oxymoron. It's basically 100 freelancers, and whether Tom Daschle, the Democrat, is the majority leader, or Trent Lott, the Republican, is the majority leader, you are still going to have the same 100 freelancers there, not just Jim Jeffords, but all of them pretty independent-minded.

But what has changed now is that the Democrats get to set the agenda. Tom Daschle, the Democrat, not Trent Lott, the Republican, gets to decide what gets to the floor. So that, for instance, after the Memorial Day recess, when they come back, he says his first order of business is going to be a patient's bill of rights.

Now, HMO reform was not very high on President Bush's agenda. And in fact, he supports the version that Daschle is just not going to allow up. So, we are going to see more a change in the agenda, maybe not a different -- maybe not a change in the outcome, but definitely a change in the agenda.

KELLEY: Well, and even for the Republicans, things could change. Already today they are talking about a newly-created moderate seat on the Senate leadership team. Arlen Specter is there now.

TUMULTY: That's right. One thing that the moderates have really been chafing at for the entire year, is the fact that they don't feel like they is a seat at them for the table -- at the table in the Senate, and now they have been given that.

Now, whether that's symbolic or whether it really means anything remains to be seen, because there is another contingent in the Senate of hard conservatives, who say, hey, our problem is not that we have not been squishy enough, our problem is that we have not been strong enough. So, I think what we are going to see, although the moderates now have the seat at the table, a continuing tension between the two sides of the party, and that's going to be a very interesting story to watch, and could determine whether Trent Lott even survives as the minority leader.

KELLEY: You see a different strategy on the White House part now too?

TUMULTY: They say absolutely not. They say they are going to pursue their agenda just the way they have been. Now, that could be a pretty risky strategy. Our "TIME"-CNN poll shows that the president's job approval numbers have risen dramatically since February. And that the number of people who would re-elect him now is no higher than the number who were saying the same thing about Bill Clinton early in his term, which was not a very good time for Clinton.

So, the White House says we are going stick with what's been working for us, this is not, you know, one guy's defection is not going to throw us off our course, but that could be pretty risky.

KELLEY: Let's talk defection, just really quickly if we can, to Karen. Jeffords, he voted yes with the tax bill this go-around, and of course now he switches over to independent. Lincoln Chafee voted no, McCain voted no, there is talk of Zell Miller. Do you think there could be some other defections to try to go over to the Republican side and some courting there?

TUMULTY: Well, certainly people on both sides are very nervous about this. Trent Lott has been calling Lincoln Chafee every day this week to just find out if he is in a good mood. The Democrats are very worried about Zell Miller, so...

KELLEY: Zell Miller says no, he is not going.

TUMULTY: Well, they are not -- they -- just to make sure, they are sending their whip Zell Miller over to walk him to the Democratic caucus meeting. John McCain, it turns out, has been talking to the Democrats in negotiations, or at least discussion, about the possibility of becoming an independent. His people...

KELLEY: How likely do you think that is?

TUMULTY: Well, the people around him are saying that's really not a very serious option. And the fact is, given this change in the Senate, John McCain is in a pretty good position to, as a Republican, to become a deal broker, so he may be finding it better and more to his advantage to stay just where he is right now.

KELLEY: OK. Karen Tumulty of "TIME" magazine, thanks as usual, and I am sure we will see you again.

TUMULTY: Thanks a lot, Donna.

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