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CNN Live Saturday

Search for bin Laden Continues

Aired November 17, 2001 - 15:04   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, whether bin Laden is digging in or scripting his own final chapter, the search will continue. And experts, like CNN terrorism analyst, Peter Bergen, will be called in for their insights. Peter is with us live in Washington -- good afternoon, Peter. We just saw you in the piece right there -- good to see you in person.

Tell us this: If, indeed -- let's speculate now -- he is not within Afghanistan, the first logical place to go and look is that long porous border with Afghanistan. Is that the place to start?

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM EXPERT: Well, Bill, I mean, I think that the notion that he's left Afghanistan fails all sorts of common sense tests, not least of which the fact, as the piece pointed out, he's 6 foot 4. He's one of the most recognizable people in the world. There's a $25 million reward on his head. Why would he leave?

There have been reports that he's left since he arrived in Afghanistan in May of 1996. They all turned out to be erroneous, whether he was going to Somalia or Chechnya or Yemen. None of these things actually happened. I don't think he's left now either, Bill.

HEMMER: Yes. Four wives -- how many children?

BERGEN: You know, more than a dozen. And there was another common sense test, I mean, you know, if somebody is leaving with his wives and his children, as this report suggested, I mean, it's a rather large number of people to be traveling around with.

HEMMER: If he is still there, Peter, again, as you suggested he might be in the country. The landscape has changed considerably. There are people, now, who oppose Osama bin Laden, who quite likely know the mountains and the landscape, just as well as he does. I would think at that point, the circle of concentration gets smaller and smaller, correct or not?

BERGEN: Well, I think that's true. I mean, yes. I think that he, you know, he has disappeared into a province, perhaps Uruzgan, which is in south central Afghanistan. He's definitely in the hills, hills he knows well, hills his followers know well. But as you point out, I mean, there are tribes, the Northern Alliance, the Kayozis (ph), the Poposi (ph) tribe, which is located around Kandahar. These people know the terrain pretty well themselves. So his area of operation is clearly being limited with every parting day. HEMMER: Were you surprised that Mohammed Atef was hit by a bomb earlier this week?

BERGEN: Well, you know, it seems like that was, I think, a blow to the organization. I mean, here is the No. 3 guy, really effectively the military commander, somebody who is related to bin Laden by marriage now, somebody who has know bin Laden since the early 80s. It must be a blow to the organization.

HEMMER: Indeed, it would be a blow, but the fact that they found him, what does that tell you about locating other al Qaeda members and possibly bin Laden?

BERGEN: I'm not really clear on the circumstance of how they found him, to be honest. You know, was it a good intelligence? Was it a lucky break? I just don't know.

HEMMER: What does the U.S. do right now? Do they watch the borders? Do they get help with Iran, help with Pakistan?

BERGEN: I think that's all happening right now. I mean, the, you know, my concern is that bin Laden may well have thought through where we are right now. I mean, he understood there was going to be an American military response. He may not have understood how quickly it was going to succeed, and how quickly the Northern Alliance would come along.

My concern is that he does have one more thing that he will unleash that has been in the offing for some time. I'm not saying that -- I'm not trying to speculate about a future. I'm just saying, based on their past activities, we know that they do the unexpected. They spend a lot of time planning these operations. Somebody is in the pipeline, is my view. Where it will be, and how exactly, I'm not sure.

HEMMER: Well, I hope you're wrong. We shall all see. Peter Bergen, thanks.

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