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CNN Live Saturday
Is bin Laden Still in Afghanistan?
Aired December 15, 2001 - 15:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: For more now on the military campaign in Afghanistan and the hunt for bin Laden and for the reaction to the release of the bin Laden videotape, CNN's Jonathan Aiken is standing by at the Pentagon. Good afternoon, Jonathan.
JONATHAN AIKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon to you, Carol. As for these reports that Osama bin Laden's voice has been heard in the Tora Bora region, there hasn't really been any specific comment from Pentagon officials, but the reports do lend credence to the reports that have been surfacing over the past few days and certainly over this past week that bin Laden had not only been heard but sighted within the Tora Bora region.
Regarding the fighting now in Tora Bora, you mentioned that there was another day of activity in the air. The bombing hasn't been as heavy as it has been in the days past, but it has been consistent and it certainly has been concentrated, focusing on specific targets, presumably pockets of al Qaeda resistance, and also specific mountain ranges, and in particular two hill sides and a valley, where there is believed to be a concentration of al Qaeda forces.
Well, officials think that they are closing in on Osama bin Laden in Tora Bora. It's not the only area where there is a focus of a manhunt. He's certainly not the only subject of a manhunt. Another search under way in the south down around Kandahar for Mullah Mohammed Omar, the Taliban leader. He was last seen in Kandahar just before the city was turned over to opposition forces. He is now believed to be somewhere in the region, including a neighboring province.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who was talking to reporters while he was en route to the Caucuses for a meeting with allies in that region, said that the answer to his questions that he posed the other day at a Pentagon briefing, where is Omar, is a question that remains unanswered.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: We have got a lot of information that suggests he is, oh, within a range of Kandahar, and there is a lot of folks looking hard at that. But there also is some modestly conflicting information. We have got people, both Afghans and Americans, probing around in areas where he might be.
(END VIDEO CLIP) AIKEN: Rumsfeld is in Azerbaijan and Georgia today. He is also set to visit Armenia and Uzbekistan. All of these are countries, former Soviet states many of them, that have also allowed the U.S. to use their air space during the war in Afghanistan.
And Carol, you mentioned the Osama bin Laden tape that was released by the United States the other day. Rumsfeld visit to shore up support for the coalition effort not the only effort being made by the U.S. government. The bin Laden tape that you see here has been re-released in a different form by the U.S. State Department today. Same video, but different subtitles, these in Arabic. The idea being that the people in that region could see and hear for themselves this tape and judge the authenticity. The U.S. State Department trying to overcome the perception in some parts of the region that the tape is not authentic -- Carol.
LIN: All right, thank you very much. Jonathan Aiken at the Pentagon this afternoon.
Now, as we have been reporting this hour, U.S. officials now say they are reasonably certain Osama bin Laden is still inside of Afghanistan. David Isby is a specialist correspondent at "Jane's Intelligence Review" and has had doubts about that, at least perhaps until now. He joins us this afternoon from Washington. Hi, David.
DAVID ISBY, "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW": Hi, how are you.
LIN: I'm very well. Let's talk about this latest report this afternoon about U.S. officials hearing radio traffic. Osama bin Laden still in Tora Bora and issuing commands to his fighters in the region. Do you think it's him?
ISBY: Well, certainly possible. But, of course, in any military organization if you are leaving an area, you put out dummy radio traffic. And certainly you don't need a great deal of sophistication. Indeed, anyone who has even been in the military or read a few books, to have a series of tape recordings which will be played over circuits you know the enemy are going to monitor, while bin Laden goes elsewhere.
This is standard military procedure. If a military unit is withdrawing from a position opposite an enemy unit, you play spurious radio traffic, leave the radios in place, make spurious traffic when the unit withdraws and reappears somewhere else on the fronts. So...
LIN: Well, do you think these al Qaeda fighters, though, have that kind of technology on the ground to try to dupe U.S. officials who in theory have high-tech equipment here in the United States to be able to check the voice?
ISBY: You'd have to be able to do that. Certainly, they may be able to determine whether this is a tape recording of them, but again, far from laboratory conditions, these are tactical radio circuits which seldom have good reception. Certainly, it's the degree of sophistication that is within the grasp of al Qaeda. Whether it is or not, no one knows. Certainly, if he wants his people to resist, he is very much a personal leader and having him on the front lines certainly does encourage the remaining al Qaeda fighters to resist.
LIN: David, why don't you think he is still there? Why don't you think it's him on the radio?
ISBY: I am not sure. You know, I said I wouldn't bet a vast amount of money, but I suspect he feels he can do more for his cause of global jihad as a live fugitive than a dead martyr. I think he, like Mullah Omar, has come to the conclusion that martyrdom is overrated and has left Tora Bora.
LIN: No fight to the death just yet. At the same time -- go ahead.
ISBY: Well, there will be plenty of martyrs to inspire the cause. He says we're going to have loads of martyrs, but they need someone to put the network together, again, from the wreckage of the allied war effort.
LIN: All right, so what's true, what's not true? We keep hearing all these varying reports that basically paint a picture of Osama bin Laden moving pretty freely either within Afghanistan, moving to Jalalabad, traveling down to Kandahar to visit Mullah Omar, and even last week "Christian Science Monitor" report saying, oh, he left, crossed border in Pakistan, and he is in Karachi, on his way to, you know, God knows where?
ISBY: Certainly, you don't know. We do know as of early November from the tape, this paralyzed sheik who obviously didn't move too well came to see him fairly freely and was not dodging patrols or aircraft. So, certainly as of early November he could still move around.
Had bin Laden soon after that decided to go over the border to Pakistan or leave Pakistan via sea before the U.S. and allied navies put up their sea patrols, he could have gone. Like I said, no one really knows what's happening, but certainly he had the opportunities and the motivation to, as they say, E&E, escape and evade.
LIN: David, it just seems nutty to me, though. I mean, I was in southern Pakistan, and the mood there clearly changed. They have the army, the Pakistani army massing along the border, you have got U.S. forces concentrated in the south. You have got everybody looking around to make $25 million if they capture this man. And this is a guy who is over 6-feet tall, he is Arab, he stands out in a crowd. Everybody knows what he looks like. He cannot hide in plain sight. Where is he going to get that kind of help?
ISBY: Probably from allies inside the Pakistani religious parties, people who had been long-time supporters of the Taliban. Certainly because he does not speak any of the local Afghan languages, he would need at least a few Afghans to help him across borders and through check points. And while $25 million is a powerful incentive, bags of dollars passed out at check points do tends to go a long way.
LIN: Sure do. All right, thank you very much, David Isby.
ISBY: You're welcome.
LIN: ... for your perspectives.
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