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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With James Steinberg

Aired December 15, 2001 - 17:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: The headline is the Bush administration's recall of its Middle East envoy. We're going to get more analysis from Washington this afternoon by James Steinberg. He is a former deputy national security adviser and now a fellow at the Brookings Institute.

Good afternoon, Jim. Thanks for joining us today.

JAMES STEINBERG, FMR. DEPY. NAT'L SECURITY ADVISER: Good afternoon, Carol.

KIN: It is a very tough situation here when the United States calls back its special envoy. In this specific situation, is this President Bush throwing in the towel?

STEINBERG: I don't think so, but I think the administration faces a real dilemma. If they leave General Zinni there, he risks looking ineffective and irrelevant to the process. On the other hand by bringing him back, there's a danger that there's a vacuum there. Now they say they're going to send him back soon. There will lot of pressure for him to come back with some new ideas.

LIN: Yes, new ideas. In the meantime, the stage is set. The cycle of violence, it's become a cliche. But what specifically has had to happen in the past to get both sides back to the table?

STEINBERG: The closest parallel in the past, Carol, was back in 1996, where we had very similar dramatic increase in violence, a number of very large scale suicide attacks. And what happened then was the international community, led by the United States, put real pressure on Arafat and made it clear to him that it was up to him to act.

And in that case, he did. He rounded up a serious number of suspects. He put real pressure on Hamas. And the process was able to go forward. It's harder now, but that's what's going to have to happen here.

LIN: Yes, but the level of violence has already passed that of 1996. So how many people have to die before both sides really feel the pain, before both sides say enough is enough?

STEINBERG: I think both sides feel the pain. But I think what's happening is that Arafat seems paralyzed by the risks of going one way or the other. He knows that if he acts, he's going come under great pressure from those who want to continue the campaign. On the other hand, if he fails to act, it's clear that the Israelis are just going to disregard him and carry on without him.

He's got to make choice now. We need the support of other countries, particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to make clear to him that he's got to make the right choice. And I was encouraged to see that General Zinni went to Egypt to talk with President Mubarak about that. LIN: Everybody has a stake in that region. So why is it that we're not seeing the other Arab leaders in the region stepping up and putting that pressure on Yasser Arafat then?

STEINBERG: Well, I hope that in part, because the events are moving very favorably in Afghanistan, that we may have a new opportunity here with some of the pressure off the Arab leaders on that issue, to turn their attention to this.

They've got to understand that they have a stake in not seeing this violence continue as well, and that there really is only one path out, if they want to see the violence go down. And that's really to give some support to Arafat, to cracking down on the terrorists.

LIN: Yes, but Yasser Arafat also says that he can't crack down on the militants if the Israelis continue to make these incursions, if they continue to block roads so that ordinary every day Palestinians can't even get to work, can't make a living. Does he have a point here?

STEINBERG: I think that the point is that he has been making those excuses for sometime. And that has not been an answer to this problem. He needs to have some assurance that if he takes the actions that are necessary now, that there will be an improved situation. The United States can help work to get that for him, but the first condition is he's really got to show that he's serious about cracking down on terrorists.

LIN: What about a dramatic step by the Israelis though? What about, you know, they're the ones with the big guns and the helicopters and the heavy machinery. What if they dramatically pulled back and just didn't react? I mean, it's basic playground politics. If someone strikes you and you don't strike back, there's at least a foundation here to have some sort of a dialogue?

STEINBERG: I think the danger there, Carol, is that Arafat will see that he may be able to go along in compromising with Hamas and others, who aren't going to be satisfied with a partial Israeli pullback. And what's really important, in terms of getting the confidence of the peace process back, is to both -- have both sides understand that their needs and concerns are going to be met.

That means for the Israelis, a real commitment on security, a real crackdown on terrorists. And then for Arafat, an understanding that if he does do that, the political side of the peace process will re-engage. LIN: But look at the players here. You've got Yasser Arafat, Ariel Sharon, two men with bad blood between them ever since 1982. Are these the two men on this stage who can actually forge a peace? Is that realistic?

STEINBERG: Well, it's a difficult problem, but we've seen in the past that sometimes unlikely people make peace. And everyone's always reminded of prime minister Begin as a partial architect of peace in this region. There are certainly differences, as well, between Sharon and Begin, but we've got these leaders.

Sharon was democratically elected. We have to work with what's there, He's got to understand that for his own people, that peace and security is what he's trying to achieve. And if we can find a way to do that, that he ought to be, in some sense, receptive to it.

LIN: Jim Steinberg with the Brookings Institute. Thanks so much. A difficult problem indeed. And we'll be talking about it for quite sometime.

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