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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With David Isby

Aired December 22, 2001 - 16:04   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Hundreds more U.S. troops are expected to join the painstaking search through the caves and the tunnels that constituted al Qaeda's last stand. That hope, of course, is that Osama bin Laden will turn up dead or alive in the region where many were convinced that he fled when the bombs began falling. And the president of Pakistan is quoted today as surmising that bin Laden did not survive the Tora Bora onslaught. However, U.S. officials from the president down say that they simply they do not know.

That brings us to CNN's Jonathan Aiken, who's standing by at the Pentagon with the very latest from there.

Hello Jonathan.

JONATHAN AIKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi Catherine.

The Pentagon has always refused to say that if, in fact, it did know the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden it wouldn't share the information -- continue to say it really doesn't know where he is, and they refuse to speculate. The trail has gone cold really, since the U.S. attacks on the Tora Bora area.

Some are wondering if, in fact, bin Laden may be still be in the area or if in fact he may have skipped out of the country. As you mentioned, Pakistan's President Musharraf added his thoughts to the mix, telling Chinese television today that he thought bin Laden is dead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN: We have sealed the borders between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Tora Bora region in which we were supposed to be operating, it has passes leading into Pakistan. There's about eight passes leading into Pakistan over mountains at a height of about 13,000 to 14,000 feet. They are snow- covered now.

We are guarding each one of these passes, so that maybe he is dead because all of the operations that have been conducted -- the bombardment of all these caves that have been conducted, there is a great possibility that he may have lost his life there. And if he does enter, if we identify him, he will be handed over.

(END VIDEO CLIP) AIKEN: Pakistan's president talking to Chinese television.

Marines, maybe even some Army troops may be joining in the search for lots of information and possibly some clues into the whereabouts of bin Laden as they head into the Tora Bora area over the next few days. They'll be conducting cave-by-cave searches, not only looking for intelligence and any weapons or ammunition stashes, but of course any evidence of bin Laden himself. The Pentagon says it's important to check those caves in the wake of the heavy U.S. bombing to see what is left and probably more importantly, who if anyone is left in the area.

Another item of concern coming out of Pentagon today involves the attack yesterday on a convoy around the town of Khost, not far from Tora Bora. The military had told us yesterday that that convoy consisting of about a dozen vehicles and a lot of people were seen leaving what U.S. military officials call a command and control area that it had been keeping an eye on. That convoy was hit by fighter jets from the USS Stennis and also hit by machine gun fire from AC-130 gunships.

Today, having heard reports from local officials that this group was part of the group coming into Kabul for the inauguration, the Pentagon says a day later it has intelligence to suggest that it was indeed a valid target on al Qaeda and Taliban leadership, Catherine, may have been a part of that convoy.

CALLAWAY: All right Jonathan Aiken, thank you. Joining us from the Pentagon, thanks Jonathan.

We're going to talk now a little bit more about the search for bin Laden and the other al Qaeda leaders with David Isby. He's a defense policy analyst and former correspondent for "Jane's Intelligence Review."

Thank you so much for being with us today.

DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE POLICY ANALYST: Good morning.

CALLAWAY: A lot of questions; and I don't want to just concentrate on the search for Osama bin Laden. We haven't been talking much about Mullah Omar, who was reportedly heavily involved in the plans for September 11. So let's talk first about Mullah Omar. We haven't said much about him, but certainly the search continues for him and do you think they should continue that search inside Afghanistan?

ISBY: Certainly, if I was organizing the search for Mullah, I think he would go inside Afghanistan. That's where his support is. That's where his roots is. He's basically towards political problems that would lead people who are opposed to the government we just saw inaugurated in Kabul to come together if there's no humanitarian aid; if there's continued starvation. You might look in places for him like the Doya Chopan (ph) region in south Oruzgan Province. That's kind of out of the way even by Afghan standards. And he's still the local hero in much of Oruzgan. CALLAWAY: Isn't he from that area? Is he from ...

ISBY: Yes, that's -- he's still the -- you still keep up in Afghanistan. You still tend to be the hometown hero even if you've been defeated on the largest scale.

CALLAWAY: David, let me ask you this. Would he be almost more closely protected than bin Laden with his ties to that area?

ISBY: Absolutely. Again, it's Afghan to Afghan. He also has tribal ties, blood ties, local ties, which bin Laden doesn't have. Bin Laden doesn't even speak the languages very well. So where Mullah Omar can reach out and touch relatives, friends, people he knows from the war against the Soviets. Bin Laden can just give away bags of money and hope to buy his way to safety.

CALLAWAY: Yes, let's talk about where bin Laden is now. We've heard Musharraf say today -- President Musharraf say that perhaps he's dead inside one of the bottom -- the bottom of one of those bombed caves. Do you believe that or do you think he's fled to Pakistan or elsewhere?

ISBY: Again, no one can really say, but I certainly believe he escaped and evaded -- E&Ed, as they said, probably early on in the process -- November, December, abandoned his outfit and with one or two Afghans went over the border to Pakistan to a safehouse there. I suspect he is now lying low somewhere in Pakistan and will probably try and communicate not for some time and then via videos, as he's done in the past.

CALLAWAY: Buying his way, perhaps, somewhere else and where would that somewhere else be? Should we look at countries like -- should we look at Somalia; at Yemen; and some of the other places that have been mentioned because they are countries in turmoil and easy to by.

ISBY: Well the turmoil is the hard thing. I don't think any country would sell itself having seen exactly how much damage the U.S. will inflict on someone who allows bin Laden residence.

CALLAWAY: Right.

ISBY: So he's looking at places where the government doesn't control part of countries or people who don't want governments or don't want to be governments. So parts of Somalia, Yemen, even Colombia have been suggested as potential places. However ...

CALLAWAY: You know David, I want to just ask you quickly, you know we think about Iraq, Saddam Hussein. We think about Moammar Gadhafi as possibilities, but are they really? Is it realistic that they would get involved? Their goals are really not the same, are they?

ISBY: Their goals are not the same. They also have return addresses and they know that the U.S. would certainly privately, politically, easy to hit someone who has had a bad record in support of terrorism like them. So I don't think Saddam Hussein or Moammar Gadhafi is going to overtly let them in.

CALLAWAY: Right.

ISBY: They may let them in covertly if they think they can keep it quiet.

CALLAWAY: All right David Isby, thank you for your insights today and for being with us.

ISBY: You're welcome.

CALLAWAY: Happy holidays to you.

ISBY: Thank you. Merry Christmas.

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