Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Saturday

Interview With David Isby

Aired December 29, 2001 - 15:03   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: One of the president's goals in the war against terrorism: Finding Osama bin Laden, dead or alive. This week, two Afghan officials said their information suggests the most wanted man in the world is in Pakistan. But where else might bin Laden and his al Qaeda clan be hiding? Joining us from Washington to talk about that is defense policy analyst David Isby. David, thank you very much for joining us.

DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE POLICY ANALYST: Thank you. Good afternoon.

SAVIDGE: Where is Osama bin Laden? Do you believe the reports that he's in Pakistan?

ISBY: If I had to bet right now, I would bet on Pakistan in a safe house known to a very few people of the Pakistani Religious Party.

SAVIDGE: Is he being protected by people perhaps connected to the Pakistani government in any way?

ISBY: Probably not, considering how much they are looking right now to U.S. support in the confrontation with India. However, Pakistani intelligence, the ISI, has strong links with these parties, and that may eventually lead us to Osama, or on the other hand may tip him off when people are looking for him.

SAVIDGE: And how about this situation with India and Pakistan? How does it complicate the situation in Afghanistan, and specifically the hunt for bin Laden?

ISBY: Certainly this becomes the foremost objective in both governments. Here are two countries which the U.S. had hoped to enlist in a shared war against terrorism now going back to old ways and armed confrontation with each other. And that, rather than simply pulling troops off the border, is where it really hurts, in the overall war against terrorism that we are supposed to bring all countries in on.

SAVIDGE: And how likely do you think this is going to be an actual shooting war, or is it so much talk right now?

ISBY: One would hope this certainly wouldn't. Any war with both sides having nuclear weapons would be very serious. In the past, India has talked about a future conflict of Pakistan that's being one in which they would solve the problem of Pakistan, so I don't think there will be a war, because indeed the stakes are very high indeed.

SAVIDGE: Well, let's hope there is none. But if it were the case, what do U.S. forces do that are in the region, especially those in Pakistan?

ISBY: I think U.S. forces would probably have to remain in place and protect themselves, or be evacuated as best they can. It depends what sort of a war it is, whether it does become a larger war or localized violence along the line of control in Kashmir. An all-out war would certainly put U.S. forces in the other side of Pakistan. They are on the side largely away from Indian border, but it would certainly put them in a difficult position.

SAVIDGE: And if you among, say, conspiracy theorists that Osama bin Laden now may be in Pakistan; Pakistan appearing to be on the brink of war. Could there be any connection between al Qaeda trying to foster this sort of hatred and fighting?

ISBY: I think there certainly was in the attack by Islamist groups on the Indian Parliament that fermented the crisis. I think this was done very much with the hopes that India would then put pressure on the Pakistani government. The groups did this so that the Pakistani government, which they see as now cooperating with the Americans, moving against al Qaeda, would be polarized and forced to see where its true friend are, which is not the United States and the West, but with a concept of a global jihad.

SAVIDGE: If we look at our crystal ball for the future, where do you think U.S. forces could be involved next in the battle against al Qaeda?

ISBY: Well, certainly would generally be in places where the government doesn't control all its territory. Very few governments or groups that want to be governments would let al Qaeda operate. But there are places such as parts of Somalia, Yemen, even the FARC- controlled areas of Colombia, which are outside of the control of their respective governments. There you may see an increasing likelihood of U.S. involvement.

SAVIDGE: You didn't mention Iraq. A lot of Americans seem to lean that way.

ISBY: Iraq would mean a large-scale war against a country. That is a different matter. And indeed, al Qaeda's links with Iraq, while certainly existing, is not -- they are not going to play host and client. Rather, they share resources in an ongoing war of terrorism against the United States, a war which since '91 really hasn't stopped in Saddam Hussein's view.

SAVIDGE: No, it has not. David Isby, defense political analyst, thanks for your insights today. We'll have to have you back soon.

ISBY: Thank you.

SAVIDGE: ... things change quickly.

ISBY: Indeed.

SAVIDGE: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com