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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Deepa Ollapally

Aired January 05, 2002 - 20:23   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Two nuclear rivals, India and Pakistan are at an impasse, but there may be some hope. The leaders of both countries came face-to-face during a regional summit held in Kathmandu, Nepal. CNN's Michael Holmes has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf surprised his opposite number, the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. He offered to rid his country of terrorism and then made a dramatic gesture. Prime Minister Vajpayee looked up, smiled, and took the hand. But when it was his turn to speak, he said India needed more than a handshake.

ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE, INDIAN PRIME MINISTER: President Musharraf extended his hand of friendship to me. I have shaken his hand. Now President Musharraf must follow this gesture by not permitting any activity in Pakistan or any territory in its control today which enables terrorists to perpetrate (UNINTELLIGIBLE) violence in India.

HOLMES: India accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism across its border in divided Kashmir and elsewhere on Indian territory. For its part, Pakistan says the only support it now gives is political and moral, and only to what it calls homegrown freedom fighters in Kashmir.

GENERAL PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PAKISTANI PRESIDENT: It is equally important that a distinction is mentioned between acts of legitimate resistance and freedom struggles on one hand and acts of terrorism on the other.

HOLMES: It's a sticking point for any future talks between these countries; one country's freedom fighter being another country's terrorist. The Pakistanis were disappointed at India's rejection of talk for the moment, feeling they've done much to clamp down on terrorist groups in their country.

For the past two weeks, Indian and Pakistani troops have been facing each other along their border. Almost nightly exchanges of fire have taken the lives of troops on both sides. This summit in Kathmandu was seen as a chance for the two sides to speak on the sidelines and a chance to soothe the tensions.

(on camera): Adding to the drama, reports that the Pakistan and Indian foreign ministers met privately one-on-one, certainly a big step forward if it happened. Pakistan sources tell us they're 100 percent certain it did happen and it was private. Indian officials, however, say it wasn't private. The two men were together, but only along with the other foreign ministers attending this summit.

(voice-over): Many analysts feel the ball is now in India's court, Pakistan making it clear that talks are the best way forward and it has done much to satisfy the Indians. Mr. Vajpayee, however, has a public and elements of his own government demanding continued tough talk. His ruling party also has an important state election next month. Compromise with Pakistan likely won't help him at the polls.

Michael Holmes, CNN, Kathmandu, Nepal.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Right now, we want to talk about the India-Pakistan situation with someone who knows the region well. Deepa Ollapally is from the U.S. Institute of Peace and she joins us now from Washington. Dr. Ollapally, good to see you, thanks for joining us.

DEEPA OLLAPALLY, U.S. INSTITUTE OF PEACE: Good evening.

LIN: All right. I was watching Michael Holmes' report, and I still can't quite take the temperature on what the relationship now is between Pakistan and India and whether they can resolve these differences. What's your read?

OLLAPALLY: Well, I think any expectation that the Kathmandu summit was going to produce a breakthrough was just not in the cards. The real question is what's going to happen when Prime Minister Vajpayee and General Musharraf go back to Islamabad and New Delhi.

And I think for the moment of course the temperature is somewhat lowered, but I think we're a long way off of really diffusing the crisis, and that's because ever since the sensational attack against the Indian Parliament in December, the Indian political class has been badly shaken.

And I think this time around, there's this feeling that without some real evidence of actions taken by the Pakistanis against the militants, against the terrorists operating from their territory, that India is not going to back off.

LIN: How close are these two nuclear powers to going to war?

OLLAPALLY: As I said, I think the idea that somehow there's going to be a major large-scale warfare, I think that's not going to happen for a variety of reasons, in part, because of the kind of international pressures that both countries are under.

But on the other hand, whether or not there might be certain steps taken by India, such as a cross-border hot pursuit of militants strikes just outside the Indian border, which they have not done so far, that I'm not going to rule out simply because I think, as I said before, I think there's a sense that without real evidence that the militants are being, not only curbed, but shut down. I think India sees this as a moment when some real results have to be seen.

LIN: Well, let's take that example. Under what scenario would you see either side using nuclear weapons?

OLLAPALLY: Well this is the nightmare scenario that all of us have been talking about, but I think this is rather unrealistic. Now on the other hand, the only scenario that I can think of would be if, in fact, the war starts off at a low level, conventional warfare, but it escalates and you see -- because India is much more -- much better capability in conventional weapons.

And so if Pakistan were to feel that it's under dire circumstances, that it's very territorial existence is under threat, at that point Pakistan might feel compelled to go nuclear. On the other hand, I doubt that it's going to get to that stage. But again, India has said that there will be no first use of nuclear weapons.

Given that Pakistan has a much weaker conventional capability, it has not said that, so we can't rule that out totally, and there have been some nuclear saber rattling on and off. So you can't rule it out, but I would say that it's not likely.

LIN: All right, so how does Pakistan, ending its ties with the Taliban, creating a new relationship here with the United States, play into this dynamic with what's happening in Kashmir?

OLLAPALLY: Right, I think one of the surprises has been that after General Musharraf took a 180 degree turn and turned against the Taliban that the protests against that within Pakistan have been rather muted. We haven't seen the kind of street power of the militants that one would have thought, and so his position is actually more secure than one might have thought, which gives him I think some space to crack down on the militants within Pakistan right now that have a different goal, that is the anti-Indian.

The question for General Musharraf, I think, is whether he's going to have a showdown between India or a showdown with militants operating out of his own territory, and that's the kind of decision he's going to have to take when he gets back. I think you know having the U.S. involved there is also a -- something that's going to play out because the question is how long is the U.S. going to stay engaged, to what -- how serious is the U.S. in fighting terrorism in the broader region, not just in Afghanistan. Because the question is where are these militants and terrorists headed once they -- and we've already seen that many of them have escaped to Pakistan.

LIN: Well and, doctor ...

OLLAPALLY: The question is are they crossing over to Kashmir as well.

LIN: Right, and Dr. Ollapally, always wresting with the question in that region, the definition of a terrorist. You know one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. OLLAPALLY: That's right.

(CROSSTALK)

LIN: All right. Thank you very much, Dr. Ollapally.

OLLAPALLY: You're welcome.

LIN: For joining us this evening.

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