Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Saturday

El Nino Coming Back

Aired March 09, 2002 - 22:53   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: El Nino, the phenomenon that left the world's weather serious shaken and stirred a few years ago is coming back. CNN science correspondent Ann Kellen reports on what we may be in for this time around.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANN KELLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Here's what the last El Nino caused, mudslides in California, fires in Indonesia, floods in Texas. Now forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center say another El Nino is coming. What damage will it do? The last El Nino in 1997, '98, people in California lost more a billion dollars in property damage. From mudslides and rain, will California be hit again?

Forecasters say it's too early to tell. This El Nino that's now churning and heating up waters in the Pacific is considered milder than the last El Nino. Forecasters want to watch its behavior over the next two months, before predicting its impact on a few states, including California.

CONRAD LAUTENBACHER, NOAA ADMINISTRATOR: The Gulf of Mexico and Florida could become more stormy and rainy during that period.

KELLEN: North Florida and the southeast, get ready for more rain next winter. And that could turn out to be good news for some areas dry from drought. The Southwest needs rain, but if forecasters call it right, expect a drier than normal winter.

El Nino brought some good memories the last time around. Warmer winter days in the middle states and Northeast brought people out to play and shop. The U.S. saves $6.7 billion in heating costs, according to a northern Illinois University study. While retail sales in '97/'98 increased by $5.6 billion.

Forecasters predict another warm winter in the Midwest and Great Plain states. It's still too early to tell if the Northeast and New England will get a break from the cold next winter, while the Pacific Northwest, forecasters predict less rain next winter.

El Nino reduces the number of hurricanes and tropical storms. So one is all you need to do life threatening damage. During the last El Nino, though, the U.S. saved about $5 billion in emergency relief alone. DAVID CHANGNON, PROF. OF METEOROLOGY, NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIV.: In oru study, we found in the U.S. a benefit of about $15 million. So it's huge.

KELLEN: Yet worldwide, the last El Nino caused 2100 deaths and $22 billion in property damage.

LAUTENBACHER: It makes a big difference to our economy to know what's about to happen in terms of energy resources, in terms of our fishing industry, in terms of agriculture.

KELLEN: NOAA claims the early forecasts give industries and agencies like FEMA time to plan ahead, hopefully saving money, resources, even lives.

Ann Kellen, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com