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CNN Live Saturday

Interview with Christina Hulbe, Gordon Laird

Aired March 23, 2002 - 22:37   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Well, you may have heard earlier this week that an iceberg the size of Delaware broke free from the ice shelf in Antarctica. And according to the latest issue of "Mother Jones," natives to the north are beginning to see some changes in their polar climate. Record highs, longer summers, more rainfall making that region mild enough to actually attract robins in that part of the world.

Heeding these signs, scientists are now looking to the polar ice caps for clues of global warming. And joining me now is geologist Christina Hulbe from Portland State University and Gordon Laird from "Mother Jones."

Thank you both for being with us this evening. And Christina, I want to start with you first on your reaction to what happened this week. Was this a big surprise?

CHRISTINA HULBE, GEOLOGIST: It wasn't a surprise at all. It was a very spectacular event, but it had been a very warm summer and we were looking for something like this to happen.

CALLAWAY: What does it indicate? What is it telling us?

HULBE: Well, we know that there's been about two-and-a-half degrees Celsius warming around the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 60 years or so. And we're now seeing the effects of that warming in these ice systems.

CALLAWAY: Is this something that we're going to see more of? Is there any way to predict - to predict something like that?

HULBE: It's difficult to predict, but part of the project that I've been working on is developing new models that we can use to make these predictions. We've got a pretty good sense of what's happening and the next step really is to develop better climate records that will allow us to make other predictions.

CALLAWAY: And now, let's go to Gordon Laird with "Mother Jones."

Gordon, you wrote an incredible article. You spent a lot of time with the Inuits in Canada and the Artic where these people have really seen a change in their entire lifestyle because of a change in the climate. Can you tell us a little bit about that? GORDON LAIRD, "MOTHER JONES" MAGAZINE: Yes, exactly. It's been quite dramatic up there in some parts. Inuit have lived on the land for hundreds and thousands of years, but the longest in some parts of 3,000 years. So they know the land and they know their place.

The world around them is changing quickly. Ice is reappearing, disappearing. Seasons are moving around. Literally, wind speed is changing. Traditional navigational skills and weather prediction skills don't work anymore.

CALLAWAY: Wow!

LAIRD: Sometimes it's not safe to be out on the ice. So their world is changing quite quickly.

CALLAWAY: You know I was reading some of the things that are in the article of - amazing. I mean that they see robins. What kind of a bird would be - would be there now? Polar bears are wandering around disoriented. They're not able to hunt on the ice. They're having to use dog sleds because the ice is so thin. We're talking about a completely new lifestyle for these people.

LAIRD: Yeah, it really eats into their way of life. I mean, suffice it to say, groceries are very expensive. So hunting, which is some of the main business up there is at risk. The Bibulous (ph) Polar Bears have trouble moving around. One elder put it to me - he feels as - feels as though the earth had shifted for him. That was - that was the translation.

And so, it's - you know, the cycles up there are very tightly wound - the natural world and the people together. So it turns out to be quite dramatic in some parts.

CALLAWAY: And you wrote in your article that they are the first to live in the greenhouse world. What did you mean by that?

LAIRD: Well, they're the first people to really be on the sort of physical forefront. I mean they - the people I've spent time with up in the Resolute, which is one of the highest, permanent settlements on the planet, they're seeing things that, you know, have no correlation to the historical records. I mean they're - climate change to them is very concrete, very real whereas for us, Urbanites, that live down south, it's a little more ambiguous.

CALLAWAY: Yes, it is. Christina, you're a scientist, tell me about this. Are scientists listening to elders like these people that Gordon spent a lot of time with to hear how truly they are being affected by warmer conditions?

HULBE: Well, I think we're going to have to start listening to them. We know from climate models and from the geologic record that the places we expect to see the largest changes in a warming world are at the high latitudes. And some places, we have good geologic records, other places, for example, the sea ice that's so important to these people; we don't have good records other than it just being there or not being there. And if you want to get some sense of the time various in the Arctic ice, we're going to have to listen to the stories that these people have to tell.

CALLAWAY: And certainly, the Inuits are not the first. Do you know? Do you hear of other people whose entire lives; lifestyles have been changed because of massive changes in their climate like this?

HULBE: Well, I think throughout history, the people have had to shift because of climate change. Right -- in the present world, the warming world, where we know sea level is rising. Anybody who lives in an island nation has an issue that's very real.

CALLAWAY: Now, Gordon, let me talk to you about something else. You have in your article about the waves of ice some people were reporting seeing along the Arctic Ocean. Can you tell me more about that?

LAIRD: Yeah, it's a natural phenomenon Inuit elders explain to me. They call it "paternik" (ph). And why it's more dramatic now is precisely because the ice pack is thinning. The Canadian Ice Service predicts that summer polar ice could disappear in the Arctic by the middle of this century.

And so, as the ice thins, the natural cycles that surround it and move it around become more dramatic. It's literally like - as though the pavement in our cities became thinner and brittle and we started to fall through it. And there was - I think - I think that sort of parallels - that analogy is a very valid one because ice really does protect us from climatic extremes down south as well. We depend on polar ice very, very much.

CALLAWAY: Gordon, how did you feel when you saw the changes in these people lives? Did your mouth drop open? Were you surprised at all?

LAIRD: Well, I mean I - these people are very understated, very - you know, very humble. I mean they are - you know, they're people that are very grounded in what they do. And so, they have a sense of an undoing of their world. But it - you know, really, there's not much they can do about it right now. I mean that's the sad thing. I mean the people to try to, you know, hang onto the traditional pursuits are being - are being hampered by things that are far beyond their control, whether it's a walrus that's disappearing because the ice has become too thin for them reproduce or other factors. You know, they're starting to organize politically. I guess that's the thing. I mean - are emerging as a political force in the world. So...

CALLAWAY: That's interesting.

LAIRD: Yes.

CALLAWAY: Yeah, Christina, we don't want to be the voice of doom here, you know. What can be done?

HULBE: Well, what can be done -- if you try to understand why these changes are occurring, and we know that within earth's climate system, there are all sorts of oscillations? There are decadal scale oscillations like El Nino. There are launderette time scale oscillations thousands of year, hundreds of years. And as we develop better climate, higher resolution climate records, we'll be able to put these changes we're seeing now into some context.

CALLAWAY: Yeah, in perspective for us though, Christina, isn't the earth always in a constant state of change?

HULBE: Well, it certainly is on all sorts of time scales. We know that 1,500 years ago, 1,800 years ago was the height of an Ice Age. And the earth has warmed considerably since then, but the warmest time really was about 6,000 years ago and we should be experiencing a cooling climate just considering orbital variations, but we're not. We're getting warmer. We need to understand why.

CALLAWAY: Christina and Gordon, thank you very much for joining me tonight and talking about this. We could go on for hours about it. It's just a fascinating subject and somewhat frightening. Thank you both for being with us.

LAIRD: Thank you.

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