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CNN Live Saturday

Are Pakistan's Missile Tests Related to Escalating Tensions With India?

Aired May 25, 2002 - 17:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Pakistan has said that its missile test is unrelated to the tensions with India over the disputed Kashmir region, but India's defense minister rejected that claim. So what do you think? Is the testing related to the tensions? Let's ask our own military analyst General Wesley Clark. He joins us now. Thanks for joining us.

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: It's good to be with you, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: So, is it your opinion that there is a direct connection between this recent testing?

CLARK: Well, let's put it this way. If the test wasn't useful to Pakistan, it could have easily been deferred. And so the Pakistanis must believe that in some way testing this missile contributes to deterrence of Indian action over Kashmir.

WHITFIELD: India is certainly interpreting it as not only a deterrence, but a direct threat. How much more tension is this only going to bring to an area that is already escalating in tension?

CLARK: Well, I think there is tension there already, as you're saying. And it's a matter of a balance between diplomacy and deterrence at this point. Of course, undersecretary of state -- Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is there. The president and many other leaders are calling on the Pakistanis and the Indians to refrain from conflict and to give President Musharraf time to stop further militant incursions across that line of division in Kashmir.

But the Indians are also explaining to their own troops that they've got to be prepared for sacrifice. It sounds like go to war talk to the troops. And so it's a question really of the Pakistanis delivering on the goods. They've got to stop the incursions, and Musharraf has to show his credibility. Otherwise, the Indians are postured and prepared, I think, to take some limited military incursion in Kashmir.

WHITFIELD: Now, both have the goods, as you put it, and both obviously have already proven that they are willing to fight. So is it your fear or is it your concern the next level that their fighting just may be taken? Would we end up seeing a nuclear battle between these two forces? CLARK: I think there are several steps before nuclear weapons would be used, Fredricka, but the nuclear potential of both countries casts a long shadow over every action, including the tensions to date.

What you're most likely to see if the diplomacy breaks down and if Indian patience runs out and the Pakistanis can't control the militants or there's another instance, is some limited military action by the Indians in Kashmir to retaliate for what they've seen as the incursions. And then it's up to the Pakistanis. And the question is, would the Pakistanis take action in Kashmir, or they'd take action elsewhere along the front? And if they take action elsewhere along the front, then the next move will be up to the Indians, and the Indians will have to then decide what they're going to do.

And so you're three, four, five moves away from nuclear, but any move closer is too dangerous for the rest of the world. We don't want to see any conflict at all there.

WHITFIELD: OK, then let's talk about what we do know of taking place today, the testing of mid-range surface-to-surface missiles. Is there a way in which you can kind of describe for us what is taking place in that kind of missile testing today?

CLARK: Well, this is supposed to be a series of tests. It's about a 900-mile range missile, so it means it's got good coverage deep into India. A ballistic missile means that air defense is not going to be effective, and the Indians don't have any anti-missile defense. So what the test of the missile signifies is that it's the certainty of Pakistani retaliation. It means that the Indians can't expect that their air defense could shoot down intruding Pakistani aircraft armed with nuclear weapons. Instead, the nuclear weapons could be delivered by ballistic means, by the missile.

And so what this is supposed to show is that deterrence is more -- is stronger, because retaliation is more certain on the part of the Pakistanis to any Indian action. What the technical requirements are, whether there's anything really behind these tests or not is really difficult for us on the outside to say. It's possible that this is an update test on guidance systems or on the launching sequence or various other matters to do with the internal -- or it could be just a readiness test of the units themselves with the missiles. Tough to say.

WHITFIELD: So you see it as pretty understandable as to why the U.S. wants to stay involved and keeping close tabs on just where this testing -- where the next steps after this testing could potentially go?

CLARK: I think that's right. I think the United States has to be very closely engaged in this testing, in any other actions. If we could get the series of tests stalled or put off, that would be better, that would be a move in the right direction.

WHITFIELD: OK. Thank you very much, General Wesley Clark, for joining us, as always.

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