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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Robert Francis

Aired May 25, 2002 - 18:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Moving on to a story that we're following today: The people of Taiwan are coping with a major tragedy. Just minutes after leaving Taipei, a China Airline 747 plunged into the Taiwan strait with 225 people on board. Search and rescue operations are under way, but so far no survivors have been found.

Now, today's crash shared some striking similarities to the TWA Flight 800 disaster. Both planes were older 747s, both were flying in good weather, and yet both fell out of the sky for no obvious reason. Robert Francis is the former vice chairman from the National Transportation Safety Board, and he's joining us now for more on this.

Thank you very much for being with us.

ROBERT FRANCIS, FORMER VICE CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD: Pleasure to be here.

CALLAWAY: First, let's talk about just how difficult it is going to be to find out exactly what happened in today's crash, especially because this one, as we mentioned, is over water. Any ideas? There was no distress call in this one, and the accident happened about 20 miles -- or 20 minutes -- after take off, so where do investigators start from now?

FRANCIS: Well, I think it's -- as you pointed out -- I think it's very parallel to some of the scenarios that we found in TWA. Shortly after takeoff -- TWA -- the aircraft was at 13,000 feet -- here, the aircraft was at 35,000 feet so it cruised. But, I think you're going to find a situation where the Taiwanese authorities who are responsible for the investigation will be exploring both the possibility that it was an accident, some sort of a mechanical malfunction, and also the possibility that it was a criminal act as the FBI did in our investigation.

CALLAWAY: That just seems so difficult for those of us who are not -- who don't do what you do -- seems so difficult to rule out. Where will they begin, will they -- just like you did in the TWA flight 800 investigation?

FRANCIS: I think it'll be very parallel. I mean, it took place in the water. There's going to be a very strong interest initially, obviously, in recovery of human remains. I think people are talking about survivors -- I think that a plane that comes down that way from 35,000 feet -- it's really... CALLAWAY: Doesn't seem likely, does it?

FRANCIS: Not likely that there are going to be survivors. Then, after that, they'll be looking for the recorders, the two recorders from the aircraft, and wreckage from the airplane. And wreckage from the airplane, and recorders can tell you a great deal.

CALLAWAY: Now there have been some discussions when this plane crash happened today that some of the farmers in the area there were finding pieces of the plane. Pieces of magazines, I think we're seeing some of that -- does this mean that the plane could have exploded in the air?

FRANCIS: Sure, and it means that it could have exploded either because of a mechanical problem, or because of a criminal act, a bomb. It also -- it doesn't rule out the possibility that something else happened to the airplane, and that the pilot's lost control and the aircraft broke apart. I think that's the less likely of the three possible scenarios just because -- if that had been the case, the controllers probably would have heard from the aircraft.

CALLAWAY: Right. It does raise a lot of questions about the 747 since they were both used and both flown in these accidents. And this one was apparently going to be retired next month. How confident are you that these aging airplanes -- some 20, 30 years old -- are safe to fly?

FRANCIS: Well, I think that there's no evidence to show us that they're not safe to fly. Subsequent to TWA, a number of measures were taken for operators of 747s and other aircraft with similar fuel tanks in the center of the airplane, in terms of temperatures, and using air conditioning -- the amount of fuel in the center fuel tanks. So, a lot of things have been done.

And I think that it would be highly premature to be making any judgments either on the aircraft or on the airline. It was interesting -- Mike Chinoy earlier mentioning that China Airlines has been doing a great deal to improve its safety as has another airline in that part of the world, Korean. So, I think it's time to sit back, gather the evidence, and do an analysis.

CALLAWAY: And as we saw in the TWA Flight 800 investigation, it was a long, lengthy, expensive procedure. What will happen in this case? Will China Airlines help fund the investigation? How do you think that will play out?

FRANCIS: Well, the -- given that it took place in international waters, I think that it's the government of Taiwan who is responsible for the investigation and they will be the ones who probably are doing most of the funding. Now, in some cases the airlines help -- I guess that remains to be seen and will depend, a little bit, on the evidence as it turns up.

CALLAWAY: All right, Robert Francis. Thank you very much for being with us and sharing your thoughts on today's crash. Thanks for being with us. FRANCIS: You're welcome.

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