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CNN Live Saturday

Interview with Hurricane Expert Conrad Lautenbacher

Aired June 01, 2002 - 12:14   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hurricane season officially begins today, and forecasters are predicting up to eight hurricanes this year, and say two or three could be big ones. So are we ready if a big one hits? CNN's John Zarrella is in South Florida, where folks have been through many horrific damaging storms. And what is it they're preparing for now?

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Fredricka, I can tell you that certainly down here they know better than just about anywhere in the country about bad storms.

Hurricane Andrew, ten years ago this August, $30 billion in damage to South Dade County alone. We're at a Home Depot in Cutler Ridge, where 10 years ago Hurricane Andrew blew this Home Depot apart. Appropriately enough, they are holding a hurricane expo here.

Lots of vendors here, people that can tell you what you need during hurricanes, what to prepare for, because it is June 1. Now is the time to prepare for hurricanes. Take a look at some of the things you might not know you need. Look at this.

The Humane Society has a first aid kit for your pet that you can pick up. It has got gauze pads, adhesive tape, ointments, gloves, tweezers, anything and everything you need. Now, some basic things. We all know we need canned goods, we need water, we need flashlights, but hey, if you got canned goods you better have something to open them with, right? So a hurricane survival kit from State Farm Insurance tells you what you need.

You got water that you have to have. The electricity is out for three, four, five days. The windows are open, make sure you have plenty of bug repellent. There's lots of things we need. Now hurricane forecasters tell us it is not the people down here that they worry about being prepared, because people here know, but it is the people who think they have been through a hurricane that are the ones who really worry the forecasters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What you want to do with a recon...

ZARRELLA (voice-over): Ten years ago this August, Hurricane Andrew took shape in the warm waters of the deep tropics off Africa, marched across the Atlantic, slammed south Florida and made history. The costliest natural disaster ever in the U.S.

Have we already forgotten the Andrew nightmare? The nation's top hurricane experts are afraid we have. .

MAX MAYFIELD, HURRICANE EXPERT: Our memories are very short and I think a lot of people have what I call Hurricane Amnesia.

ZARRELLA: Max Mayfield directs a team of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. He's got lots of worries. During the past two years, although dozens of storms formed, not a single hurricane, weak or strong, has hit the U.S. That's good, Mayfield says, but it also breeds hurricane malaise. A Red Cross study last year showed half of the people living in coastal areas most likely to be hit by a hurricane don't have an evacuation plan. And, Mayfield believes, many people have the misconception that big, powerful hurricanes only strike in years when the experts are predicting lots of storms.

MAYFIELD: In fact, the deadliest hurricane the U.S. ever had, the costliest hurricane and the most intense hurricane that we ever had, all three of those hurricanes occurred in the years with below average numbers.

ZARRELLA: Case in point, Andrew -- 1992 was a strong El Nino year, not a good climate for hurricanes. In all, there were only six named storms. Well below the average. But one of them was Andrew. And the experts are convinced we're ripe for a hurricane hit this year. Since record keeping began in 1871, there have never been three consecutive years without a hurricane hitting the U.S.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

So this might be a good year to pick up that generator if you haven't got one. If you decide that you want to make sure that you can keep a refrigerator running, keep a light running. Not going to be able to power much, but if you've got it, at least you can keep some basics on-line at your house.

So again, Fredricka, today, June 1, start of hurricane season. If you're out there, folks, this is the time to get ready. Don't wait until that big one is bearing down on you. By then it's going to be too late. Stores are going to be without the stock you need, whether it is supplies or hurricane panels, or paneling for your houses, get it now, don't wait until the last minute -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And John, even with that warning, still there are some people who still wait at the last minute. Hopefully, this year, maybe it it'll be a little different.

ZARRELLA: That would be nice.

WHITFIELD: John Zarrella from south Florida. Thank you very much.

Well, tracking and trying to predict the path of a hurricane is something the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does. Conrad Lautenbacher is the head of that organization. He joins us now from Washington. Good afternoon.

CONRAD LAUTENBACHER, NOAA ADMINISTRATOR: Good afternoon.

WHITFIELD: Well, as John warned, even though people seem to get all the warnings ahead of time, there are still those who need a little extra nudging, so why don't we try to take advantage of this opportunity and try to nudge people and let them know that even though you have about up to eight or nine hurricanes predicted for this year, that really is not too different from the nine or so hurricanes that formed last year.

But why is it really important for people to take heed to these warnings already?

LAUTENBACHER: Well, I think we need to look at the information that you just provided very carefully. It is important for citizens to be aware of the fact that we haven't had a major hurricane hit our coastline or the United States within -- for the last two years.

Now, you -- the chances of that happening for three years in a row are very, very low. In addition we have continued increases in population in our coastal zones. We have 50 million people, for example, living along the coasts of the Atlantic states and our Gulf states, and we have millions more who will be coming to have recreation vacation during this period, and it is incumbent upon everyone who plans to be in the area, whether they're living or traveling in that area, to understand the difficulties and the major disasters that can occur from a hurricane.

WHITFIELD: Some predictions estimate that as many as three very strong hurricanes could potentially threaten the coast. Even if the Atlantic coastline does not take a direct hit, we've learned from Hurricane Floyd, which became Tropical Storm Floyd, that did more damage as a tropical storm than it did as a hurricane. So while a storm may -- a hurricane may lose strength as it makes its may to the coast, it still can really cause potentially -- threatening damage and jeopardize lives just by sitting over the cost offering (ph) an awful lot of water, can't it?

LAUTENBACHER: Absolutely. People should not be too upset whether they're talking about hurricanes or tropical storms. They both can provide significant damage and I think people should be aware that tropical storm -- or storm Allison last year caused $5 billion worth of damage, just a tropical storm, not a hurricane, and the loss of 24 lives. This was -- and much of that happened inland. It happened from rain and flooding that occurred well away from our coasts.

WHITFIELD: So in my experience in covering countless hurricanes and tropical storms, we've all learned that these storms pick up strength over warm waters. It has been a particularly warm winter. So does that mean that that should issue some warning to all of us that we really may be seeing a pretty threatening hurricane season because of the warm waters?

LAUTENBACHER: I think it is not necessarily because of the warm winter, but yes, we are in what we call the warm period of the multi- decatel (ph) Atlantic oscillation. It is a mode of cold and warm water. And during the periods when the water is warmer in the Caribbean and the Atlantic and we have less wind shear in the atmosphere, the chances of hurricanes developing are much stronger than they are in cold periods.

We have just entered one of those periods in 1996. And so the chances are, that's why our forecast indicates that we will probably have normal to above normal activity for storms and hurricanes this year.

WHITFIELD: OK. And the pattern in the last couple years, it seems as though the coastal communities that have gotten the brunt of the storm pattern has been the North Carolina and South Carolina coastal communities. Is there a good explanation for that?

LAUTENBACHER: Actually if you went back and tracked all of the plots of tropical storms and hurricanes that we have had, you would see a huge trail of spaghetti. There is no reason to...

WHITFIELD: But those two states have sustained a good deal of damage in the past couple of years from tropical storms and hurricanes particularly.

LAUTENBACHER: Yes, they have, certainly they have. I'm just trying to point out that statistically over the years, everyone along the coast should be aware of hurricanes coming in. Obviously Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and South Carolina, you have the gulf stream shearing off and you have some particularly turbulent waters, and you have a point of land that sticks out further into the Atlantic, so the chances of having some greater damage certainly are present in that area of our coast.

WHITFIELD: All right. Conrad Lautenbacher, thank you very much, with NOAA. Thanks for joining us this afternoon.

LAUTENBACHER: My pleasure. Thank you, Fredricka.

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